1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hot-rolled coil futures contract declined with reduced trading volume, breaking below the 5-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages, reaching a one-month low with no sign of a stop in the decline [1][6]. - Currently, the supply is relatively stable, and the demand shows strong resilience despite a decline due to the approaching Spring Festival. The total inventory is at a high level, mainly due to the high pressure on social inventory, and the inventory pressure still exists. Attention should be paid to the resumption of manufacturing operations and the inventory depletion speed after the Spring Festival [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures Price: On Friday, the open interest of the hot-rolled coil futures main contract decreased by 10,036 lots, with a trading volume of 276,669 lots, showing a decline compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,250 yuan, and the high was 3,270 yuan. The daily moving averages showed a short-term decline below the 5-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages, closing at 3,251 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan or 0.43% [1]. - Spot Price: The hot-rolled coil price in Shanghai, a mainstream region, was reported at 3,250 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was -1 yuan [3]. Fundamental Data - Supply: As of February 5, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils decreased by 0.05 million tons to 3.0916 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1103 million tons. This week's output was at a moderately high level in recent years, indicating that steel mills maintained a high production rhythm before the Spring Festival, with increased production enthusiasm [4]. - Demand: As of February 5, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 0.0587 million tons to 3.0554 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.0811 million tons. Mainly affected by the Spring Festival shutdown, the demand from downstream manufacturing industries declined, but the overall level was still at a relatively high level in recent years, showing certain resilience [4]. - Inventory: As of February 5, the total inventory increased by 0.0362 million tons to 3.592 million tons (the social inventory increased by 0.0212 million tons week-on-week, and the steel mill inventory increased by 0.015 million tons). The pressure was concentrated on social inventory, and the steel mill inventory was controllable. The steel mill inventory pressure was extremely low, and the social inventory increased significantly, reflecting the inventory backlog in the circulation link and the low willingness of downstream buyers to purchase [4]. - Policy: The new regulations on the management of steel export licenses have been introduced. In the short term, it will lead to fluctuations in exports, an increase in supply, and price pressure. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in-depth rectification of involutionary competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profits. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish Factors: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment) [6]. - Bearish Factors: Steel mill复产 exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]. Short-Term View Summary - The hot-rolled coil futures contract declined with reduced trading volume today, breaking below the short-term 5-day, medium-term 30-day, and 60-day moving averages, reaching a one-month low with no sign of a stop in the decline. Fundamentally, the current supply is relatively stable, and the demand shows strong resilience despite a decline mainly due to the approaching Spring Festival. The total inventory is at a high level, mainly due to the high pressure on social inventory, and the inventory pressure still exists. Attention should be paid to the resumption of manufacturing operations and the inventory depletion speed after the Spring Festival [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term cautious and bullish rating on hot - rolled coils [6] Core Viewpoints - The hot - rolled coil futures market is oscillating weakly, with supply relatively stable and demand showing strong resilience despite a decline due to the approaching Spring Festival. The total inventory is at a high level mainly because of high - level social inventory, and there is still inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to the resumption of manufacturing operations after the Spring Festival and the inventory depletion speed [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Price**: On Thursday, the open interest of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract increased by 11,934 lots, and the trading volume was 283,875 lots, a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3255 yuan, the high was 3278 yuan, and the market was oscillating weakly. In the short - term, it fell below the 5 - day, 30 - day, and 60 - day moving average lines, closing at 3263 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan or 0.40% [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream area, was reported at 3260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was - 3 yuan [3] 2. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of February 5, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 0.05 million tons to 3.0916 million tons week - on - week and decreased by 11.03 million tons year - on - year. The current output is at a moderately high level in recent years, indicating that steel mills maintain a high production pace before the Spring Festival and production enthusiasm has increased [4] - **Demand**: As of February 5, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 5.87 million tons to 3.0554 million tons week - on - week and decreased by 8.11 million tons year - on - year. Affected by the Spring Festival shutdown, the demand of downstream manufacturing industries has declined, but it is still at a relatively high level in recent years and shows certain resilience [4] - **Inventory**: As of February 5, the total inventory increased by 3.62 million tons to 3.592 million tons week - on - week (social inventory increased by 2.12 million tons week - on - week, and steel mill inventory increased by 1.5 million tons). The pressure is concentrated in social inventory, and the steel mill inventory is controllable, indicating inventory backlog in the distribution link and insufficient willingness of downstream buyers to purchase [4] - **Policy**: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short - term export fluctuations, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The central economic meeting in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, which is beneficial to prices and industry profits, and efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5] 3. Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support (the 14th Five - Year Plan, infrastructure investment) [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6] 4. Short - term View Summary - The hot - rolled coil futures decreased in volume today. Short - term pressure is near the 30 - day moving average, and the lower support is the previous low. Adopt a cautious and bullish approach. Currently, the supply is relatively stable, and although the demand has declined mainly due to the approaching Spring Festival, it still shows strong resilience. The total inventory is at a high level mainly due to high social inventory pressure, and inventory pressure still exists. Attention should be paid to the resumption of manufacturing operations after the Spring Festival and the inventory depletion speed [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term view maintains a bullish stance [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The current supply of hot - rolled coils is contracting, while the demand side shows resilience, with the overall supply - demand in a tight balance. Pre - holiday winter stockpiling is an important support for current demand. The social inventory of the total inventory is decreasing month - on - month, and the pressure on mill inventory is controllable. The overall inventory risk is marginally improving but still relatively high year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the impact of the post - holiday resumption of work and production on supply and demand. The supply - demand tight balance and inventory reduction support prices, and subsequent attention should be paid to raw material costs and the strength of post - holiday demand recovery. Currently, the macro - economic easing expectations and pre - holiday weak demand are in a tug - of - war, with cautious market sentiment and low volatility [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures price**: On Tuesday, the open interest of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract decreased by 6,369 lots, with a trading volume of 288,700 lots, a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,283 yuan, and the high was 3,306 yuan. It showed a weak intraday oscillation. In terms of the daily moving average, it briefly fell below the 5 - day moving average in the short term, but found support near the 30 - day moving average, closing at 3,289 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan or 0.60% [1] - **Spot price**: The price of hot - rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The spot - futures basis was 1 yuan, basically at par [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply side**: As of January 22, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 29,500 tons month - on - month to 3.0541 million tons, and decreased by 172,300 tons year - on - year. The output decline may be affected by factors such as maintenance schedules and profit fluctuations, which supports prices [4] - **Demand side**: As of January 22, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 42,000 tons month - on - month to 3.0996 million tons, and increased by 73,900 tons year - on - year. Although demand declined slightly month - on - month, it maintained year - on - year growth. Pre - holiday stockpiling supported demand, and overall demand showed strong resilience [4] - **Inventory side**: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 45,500 tons week - on - week to 3.5778 million tons (social inventory decreased by 46,600 tons week - on - week, and mill inventory increased by 1,100 tons), and increased by 212,700 tons year - on - year (social inventory increased by 241,800 tons year - on - year, and mill inventory decreased by 29,100 tons year - on - year). The total inventory decreased month - on - month, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved. The year - on - year increase indicated that the inventory accumulation rate this year was slightly faster than last year, but the overall risk was controllable [4] - **Policy side**: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short - term fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in - depth rectification of involution - style competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts are being made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Decrease in supply - side output, expectation of winter stockpiling demand, export rush market, policy support ("the 14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as furnace feed [6] - **Bearish factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for hot - rolled coils is "Oscillating with an upward bias", maintaining a bullish view [6] Core Viewpoints - Currently, the supply of hot - rolled coils is contracting, and the demand is resilient, resulting in an overall tight balance between supply and demand. Pre - holiday winter stockpiling is an important support for current demand. The social inventory is decreasing month - on - month, and the factory inventory pressure is controllable. Although the inventory is still high year - on - year, the overall inventory risk has marginally improved. The tight balance between supply and demand and inventory reduction support prices. In the future, attention should be paid to raw material costs and the strength of post - holiday demand recovery. Technically, the price has stood above the 5 - day and 30 - day moving averages, and it is expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short term [6] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **期货价格**: On Friday, the持仓 volume of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract increased by 33,977 lots, and the trading volume was 304,877 lots, showing an increase compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,283 yuan, and the high was 3,310 yuan, with an oscillating upward trend. It closed at 3,305 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan or 0.52%. It has stood above the 5 - day and 30 - day moving averages, and if it holds, the probability of short - and medium - term strengthening is relatively high [1] - **现货价格**: The price of hot - rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day [2] - **基差**: The basis between futures and spot was - 15 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 22, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 29,500 tons month - on - month to 3.0541 million tons, and decreased by 172,300 tons year - on - year. The output decline may be affected by factors such as maintenance arrangements and profit fluctuations, which supports prices [4] - **Demand**: As of January 22, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 42,000 tons month - on - month to 3.0996 million tons, and increased by 73,900 tons year - on - year. Although the demand has slightly declined month - on - month, it has maintained growth year - on - year. Pre - holiday stockpiling supports demand, and the overall demand is resilient [4] - **Inventory**: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 45,500 tons month - on - month to 3.5778 million tons (social inventory decreased by 46,600 tons month - on - month, and factory inventory increased by 1,100 tons). It increased by 212,700 tons year - on - year (social inventory increased by 241,800 tons year - on - year, and factory inventory decreased by 29,100 tons year - on - year). The total inventory decreased month - on - month, and the inventory pressure has marginally eased. The year - on - year increase indicates that the inventory accumulation speed this year is slightly faster than last year, but the overall risk is controllable [4] - **Policy**: The new regulations on steel export license management will cause short - term export fluctuations, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in - depth rectification of involution - style competition as a key task in 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts are also being made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Decrease in supply - side output, expectation of winter stockpiling demand, export rush, policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [6] - **Bearish factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current supply of hot-rolled coils is contracting while demand is resilient, with an overall tight balance between supply and demand. Pre-holiday winter stockpiling is an important support for current demand. Total social inventory is decreasing month-on-month, and the pressure on factory inventory is controllable. The overall inventory risk has marginally improved, but it is still relatively high year-on-year. Attention should be paid to the impact of the post-holiday resumption of work and production on supply and demand. The tight balance between supply and demand and inventory depletion support prices. In the future, attention should be paid to raw material costs and the strength of post-holiday demand recovery. From a technical perspective, pay attention to the support around the 30-day moving average, and maintain a cautiously bullish outlook [6] 3. Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures price**: On Thursday, the open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract increased by 4,160 lots, with a trading volume of 241,486 lots, a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,281 yuan, and the high was 3,296 yuan. The price fluctuated and stabilized during the day. From the perspective of the daily moving average, it briefly retraced to the support around the 30-day moving average and then rebounded. Attention should be paid to the pressure around the 10-day moving average. It closed at 3,287 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.24% [1] - **Spot price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a major region, was reported at 3,280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was -7 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 22, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils decreased by 29,500 tons month-on-month to 3.0541 million tons, and decreased by 172,300 tons year-on-year. The output decline month-on-month and a significant year-on-year decrease reflect that steel mills' capacity utilization has converged, possibly affected by maintenance schedules and profit fluctuations, which supports prices [4] - **Demand**: As of January 22, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 42,000 tons month-on-month to 3.0996 million tons, and increased by 73,900 tons year-on-year. Although the demand decreased slightly month-on-month, it maintained year-on-year growth. Pre-holiday stockpiling supported demand, and overall demand showed strong resilience [4] - **Inventory**: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 45,500 tons month-on-month to 3.5778 million tons (social inventory decreased by 46,600 tons month-on-month, and steel mill inventory increased by 1,100 tons). Year-on-year, it increased by 212,700 tons (social inventory increased by 241,800 tons year-on-year, and steel mill inventory decreased by 29,100 tons year-on-year). The total inventory decreased month-on-month, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved. The year-on-year increase indicates that the inventory accumulation rate this year is slightly faster than last year, but the overall risk is controllable [4] - **Policy**: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short-term fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Addressing involutionary competition in depth was listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial for prices and industry profitability. Efforts are being made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Decrease in supply output, expectation of the start of winter stockpiling demand, export rush, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [6] - **Bearish factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. The anti-involution policy still has expectations, providing strong support at the lower end. The weekly-on-week apparent demand has rebounded, and the year-on-year demand remains strong. The demand during the off-season shows strong resilience. The warming up of winter storage sentiment may drive a wave of demand. The total inventory is relatively high, posing some pressure, but the recent continuous destocking may relieve the pressure if it persists. The daily line of hot-rolled coil futures is currently near the support of the 30-day and 60-day moving averages. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether it can stabilize at this level and break through the pressure near the 10-day moving average. It is recommended to adopt a cautiously bullish approach, but note that the oscillation range has not been completely broken yet [6]. Summary by Directory Market Review - **Futures Price**: On Wednesday, the trading volume of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract decreased compared to the previous trading day. The price fluctuated and stabilized within the day, with a daily low of 3271 yuan and a high of 3290 yuan. It closed at 3286 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.06%. The short-term moving average retraced to the support near the 30-day moving average and then rebounded. Attention should be paid to the pressure near the 10-day moving average [1]. - **Spot Price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3270 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was -16 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 15, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 2.85 million tons to 3.0836 billion tons compared to the previous week. The year-on-year output decreased by 1.183 million tons. The production has been rising for four consecutive weeks, mainly due to improved profitability of steel mills, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of molten iron from building materials to plates, and the resumption of production after the end of annual maintenance [4]. - **Demand**: As of January 15, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 5.82 million tons to 3.1416 billion tons compared to the previous week. The apparent demand rebounded significantly this week, with a year-on-year increase of 0.51 million tons. The demand data is at a high level in recent years, indicating strong demand resilience [4]. - **Inventory**: As of January 15, the total inventory decreased by 5.8 million tons to 3.6233 billion tons compared to the previous week. The social inventory decreased by 5.01 million tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 0.79 million tons. The total inventory continued to decline, indicating strong demand for hot-rolled coils. The total inventory is at a high level in the past five years, but if the destocking continues, the pressure on prices will decrease [4]. - **Policy**: New regulations on the export license management of steel products have been introduced, which will cause short-term fluctuations in exports, an increase in supply, and price pressure. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness enhancement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in-depth rectification of involution competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Decrease in supply output, expected start of winter storage demand, export rush market, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore prices [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautiously bullish outlook on hot-rolled coils [6] Core Viewpoints - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. The anti-involution policy still has expectations, providing strong support at the bottom. The weekly环比apparent consumption has rebounded, and the year-on-year performance is still strong. The demand in the off-season has strong resilience. The warming of winter storage sentiment may drive a wave of demand. Although the total inventory is relatively high and there is some pressure, it has been continuously de-stocked recently. If this trend continues, the pressure will be relieved. The 05 contract of hot-rolled coils decreased in position and volume today, and there is still a possibility of further weakening. Attention should be paid to the support at the previous low point [6] Summary by Directory Market Review - **Futures Price**: On Tuesday, the position of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract decreased by 15,864 lots, and the trading volume was 471,822 lots, showing a contraction compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,275 yuan, and the high was 3,307 yuan. It decreased in position and price during the day, breaking below the 5-day and 60-day moving averages, and closed at 3,276 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan or 0.97% [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,280 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was 4 yuan, close to parity [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 15, the weekly production of hot-rolled coils increased by 28,500 tons to 3.0836 million tons compared to the previous week. Year-on-year, it decreased by 118,300 tons. Production has been rising for four consecutive weeks, mainly due to improved profitability of steel mills, increased production enthusiasm, some steel mills allocating molten iron from building materials to plates, and the end of annual maintenance in steel mills with increased resumption of production. The follow-up increase in supply needs to be observed [4] - **Demand**: As of January 15, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 58,200 tons to 3.1416 million tons compared to the previous week. The apparent consumption rebounded significantly this week, and year-on-year, it increased by 5,100 tons. The demand data is at a high level in recent years, indicating that demand still has resilience [4] - **Inventory**: As of January 15, the total inventory decreased by 58,000 tons to 3.6233 million tons compared to the previous week (the social inventory decreased by 50,100 tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 7,900 tons). The total inventory continued to be de-stocked, indicating that the current demand for hot-rolled coils has resilience. The total inventory is at a high level in the past five years. If the de-stocking trend can continue, the pressure on prices will decrease [4] - **Policy**: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products have been introduced. In the short term, it will cause fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in-depth rectification of involution competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts are being made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5] Market Driving Factors Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Decrease in supply-side production, expectation of the start of winter storage demand, export rush, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace material [6] - **Bearish Factors**: The resumption of production in steel mills in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and bullish approach, recommending buying on dips [6]. Core Viewpoints - The current output pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. The anti-involution policy still holds expectations, providing strong support at the lower end. The weekly-on-week recovery of apparent demand remains strong year-on-year, indicating strong resilience in off-season demand. The warming sentiment of winter storage may drive a wave of demand. Although the total inventory is relatively high, there has been continuous destocking recently, and if this trend continues, the pressure will ease. The hot-rolled coil futures have currently fallen below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, and attention should be paid to the support around the 30-day moving average in the medium term. However, it has not completely broken out of the oscillation range [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures prices: The trading volume of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract on Monday decreased compared to the previous trading day. It showed a weak oscillation during the day, falling below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages in the short term. It closed at 3,299 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 0.75%. The intraday low was 3,291 yuan, and the high was 3,340 yuan. The open interest decreased by 12,645 lots, and the trading volume was 486,769 lots [1]. - Spot prices: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was -9 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3]. Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 15, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 28,500 tons to 3.0836 million tons compared to the previous week. Year-on-year, it decreased by 118,300 tons. The output has rebounded for three consecutive weeks, mainly due to improved profitability of steel mills, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of hot metal from building materials to plates by some steel mills, and the resumption of production after the end of annual maintenance [4]. - Demand: As of January 15, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 58,200 tons to 3.1416 million tons compared to the previous week. The apparent demand rebounded significantly this week, up 5,100 tons year-on-year. The demand data is at a high level in recent years, with demand still showing resilience, mainly driven by accelerated exports and rigid procurement in the manufacturing industry. The willingness of end-users to stock up actively is weak, and speculative demand is also weak [4]. - Inventory: As of January 15, the total inventory decreased by 58,000 tons to 3.6233 million tons week-on-week (the social inventory decreased by 50,100 tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 7,900 tons). The total inventory continued to be destocked, indicating that the current demand for hot-rolled coils has resilience. The total inventory is at a high level in the past five years. If destocking can continue, the pressure on prices will decrease [4]. - Policy: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short-term fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in-depth rectification of involution-style competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Decrease in supply output, expectation of the start of winter storage demand, rush for export market, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [6]. - Bearish factors: The resumption of production of steel mills in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. The anti-involution policy still has expectations, providing strong support at the bottom. Although the weekly apparent consumption has declined slightly, it remains strong year-on-year. A slight decline in demand during the off-season is normal. The warming of winter storage sentiment may drive a wave of demand. The high total inventory exerts some pressure. The hot-rolled coil futures have briefly fallen below the 5-day moving average, and attention should be paid to the support near the 10-day and 20-day moving averages. It is recommended to adopt a cautiously bullish approach and consider buying on dips. However, note that the oscillation range has not been completely broken yet [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures Price**: On Tuesday, the open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract increased by 12,752 lots, and the trading volume was 404,061 lots, showing a decline compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,296 yuan, and the high was 3,323 yuan. It oscillated and consolidated with increased open interest during the day. From the perspective of the daily moving average, it briefly fell below the 5-day moving average but remained above the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, closing at 3,303 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton or 0.09% [1]. - **Spot Price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was -13 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3]. Fundamental Data - **Supply Side**: As of January 8, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 10,000 tons to 3.0551 million tons compared to the previous week. It was up 16,200 tons year-on-year, and the output has been rising for three consecutive weeks. This is mainly due to the improvement in steel mill profitability, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of molten iron from building materials to plates by some steel mills, and the increased resumption of production after the end of the annual maintenance of steel mills. The follow-up supply increase needs to be observed [4]. - **Demand Side**: As of January 8, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 24,300 tons to 3.0834 million tons compared to the previous week. Although the apparent consumption declined slightly, it was up 72,500 tons year-on-year, indicating that demand still has resilience [4]. - **Inventory Side**: As of January 8, the total inventory decreased by 28,300 tons to 3.6813 million tons compared to the previous week (social inventory increased by 21,700 tons, and steel mill inventory decreased by 50,000 tons). The total inventory continued to decline, but the decline rate narrowed, and the total inventory was at a near 5-year high. Inventory still exerts pressure on prices [4]. - **Policy Side**: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short-term fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in-depth rectification of involutionary competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Decrease in supply-side output, expectation of the start of winter storage demand, export rush market, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: The resumption of production of steel mills in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term view of being cautiously bullish on hot - rolled coils [5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current production pressure of hot - rolled coils is not significant. The anti - involution policy provides strong support at the bottom. Although the weekly apparent consumption has slightly declined, the year - on - year performance is still strong. The warming of winter storage sentiment may drive a wave of demand. The strong performance of coking coal and coke and the sharp rise of iron ore provide strong cost support. The high total inventory exerts some pressure. The hot - rolled coil market has large fluctuations and is currently near the moving - average support. It is recommended to take a cautiously bullish approach and buy on dips [5] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The trading volume of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract on Friday decreased compared with the previous trading day. It decreased in position and fluctuated within the day, standing above the 5 - day, 10 - day, and 20 - day moving averages, closing at 3294 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton or 1.02% [1] - Spot price: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream area, was reported at 3280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan compared with the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was - 14 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to spot [2] 2. Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 8, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased by 10,000 tons to 3.0551 million tons compared with the previous week, and increased by 16,200 tons year - on - year. The output has rebounded for three consecutive weeks due to improved profitability of steel mills, iron - water transfer from building materials to plates, and the resumption of production after annual maintenance [3] - Demand: As of January 8, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 24,300 tons to 3.0834 million tons compared with the previous week, showing a slight decline. However, it increased by 72,500 tons year - on - year, indicating that demand still has resilience [3] - Inventory: As of January 8, the total inventory decreased by 28,300 tons to 3.6813 million tons compared with the previous week. The social inventory increased by 21,700 tons, and the steel - mill inventory decreased by 50,000 tons. The total inventory continued to decline, but the decline rate narrowed, and the total inventory was at a high level in the past five years, exerting pressure on prices [3] - Policy: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short - term export fluctuations, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The positive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy in the Central Economic Work Conference in December are beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts are being made to stabilize the real - estate market and expand domestic demand [3][4] 3. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Decrease in supply - side output, expected start of winter storage demand, export rush, policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron - ore prices [5] - Bearish factors: Exceeding - expected resumption of production of steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and price suppression due to inventory accumulation [5]