年度报告——铁矿石 报告日期： ★ 供应：25 年全球海漂供应 3700 万吨，26 年增 5100 万吨 25 年铁矿发货节奏前低后高，年中开始，伴随主要矿山"降品 保量"，全球发货量快速回升。预计 2025 年全球铁矿石供应增 长约 3700 万吨，2026 年增长扩张至 5100 万吨。 黑 各大矿山纷纷主动"降品增量"，导致 2025 年铁矿结构性库存 矛盾似有重现。矿山主流品质下滑，以及金布巴库存锁定，一 定程度上解释了 2025 年下半年以来，港口高库存量和现货价格 坚挺的背离。展望 2026 年，我们预计全球铁矿石供应增幅扩大 至 5100 万吨。西芒杜首船试运之后，或需等待 26 年年中明显起 量。接驳能力和多方博弈或对发运造成向下扰动。 色 金 ★ 需求：粗钢需求或前低后高，韧性较强但缺乏增量 属 2025 年实际需求表现远超市场预期。根据 Mysteel 铁水和富宝废 钢折算，2025 年全年粗钢表需增长约 2%，铁水增长约 2.3%。经 历 2025 年出口韧性验证后，市场对 2026 年需求预期转向谨慎， 主流预期保持在零增长附近。分项来看，地产持续下滑，基建 十五五开局预计微增，直接 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Supply - Static calculations show that from January to November 2025, China's iron ore imports first decreased and then increased, with a year-on-year increase of 8.76 million tons (1.5%) to 1.14 billion tons, and the annual total may exceed 1.249 billion tons. The new production capacities of mines in Australia and Brazil will be reflected in the fourth-quarter shipments, and imports are expected to continue a slight increase of 1.1% in 2026 [7][125]. - In 2025, China's cumulative iron ore output is expected to reach 295 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.71%. The output rebounded in the fourth quarter as the pressure on safety and environmental protection eased. The output of domestic iron concentrate is expected to increase by 2% year-on-year in 2026 [7][125]. - The pricing benchmark of iron ore will decrease from 62% iron grade to 61%, and the pricing system may be adjusted [7][125]. - In 2026, the total supply will increase by 1.3% year-on-year to 1.544 billion tons [7][125]. Demand - Domestic: In 2025, the decline in the real estate sector slowed down, infrastructure investment showed positive year-on-year growth, and the manufacturing industry continued to improve. The annual iron ore demand was calculated to be 1.498 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 59.97 million tons (+4.23%). The annual iron ore demand in 2026 is expected to remain stable with little change [7][125]. - Overseas: In 2026, the pig iron output in major overseas iron ore - importing countries is expected to decline slightly, while the steel demand in India and the United States will continue to be strong [7][125]. Inventory - As of early December 2025, the inventory at 45 ports was 154 million tons. The production capacity of mines increased slowly in the early stage of 2025 and started to expand in the fourth quarter. However, the demand showed strong resilience, and hot metal production was "not weak in the off - season". With the continued release of iron ore production capacity in 2026, static calculations suggest that the iron ore supply - demand situation will become looser, and there is a high possibility of continued inventory accumulation in 2026. However, short - term supply - demand tightness caused by meteorological and other factors may still occur [7][125]. 3. Summary According to the Relevant Catalogs Market Review - In January, affected by cyclones in Australia and rainfall in Brazil, shipments decreased sharply, and hot metal production stopped falling and rebounded earlier than expected. In early March, after the cyclone in Australia, shipments quickly recovered, but the upward momentum of hot metal was insufficient. With the seasonal recovery of shipments from Australia and Brazil, the resumption of domestic mines increasing supply, and the arrival of the downstream off - season, hot metal production reached its peak and gradually declined. Repeated adjustments of tariff policies caused disturbances that gradually weakened. The pre - festival restocking expectations of steel supported the rebound of iron ore prices. Hot metal production declined significantly, steel product profits continued to weaken, and port inventories increased. After a brief recovery, hot metal production stabilized, and the downstream winter restocking demand was released. After the quarterly shipment rush, the supply from international mines decreased rapidly, the output of domestic mines decreased significantly due to environmental protection, hot metal production continued to rise, and the output of the downstream five major steel products continued to increase. The shipments of international mines recovered, the output of domestic mines increased, but demand showed signs of decline, the off - season arrived, and hot metal production declined. Under the influence of major events, environmental protection restrictions were strict, downstream profits declined, demand weakened, and iron ore prices fluctuated. Vale's terminal maintenance unexpectedly affected shipments, and the US interest rate hikes boosted the macro - optimistic sentiment [5]. Supply - **Global Shipment Volume**: In 2025, the global mainstream iron ore shipment volume first decreased and then increased, with a slight year - on - year increase. As of December 12, 2025, the global average daily shipment volume was 4.47 million tons per day, a 2.76% increase compared to 4.35 million tons per day in the previous year. From January to September 2025, the global iron ore trade volume decreased by 2.38%, and China's iron ore imports from the world increased by 0.01% year - on - year. In the fourth quarter, the new iron ore production capacity was released, and from January to October 2025, China's imports of iron ore from the world increased by 0.75% year - on - year [12]. - **China's Imports from Australia and Brazil**: From January to October 2025, China's imports of iron ore from Australia and Brazil increased by 1.54%, showing a pattern of first decline and then increase, especially a significant improvement since September. China's imports of iron ore from non - Australia and Brazil regions decreased by 2.66%, also showing a pattern of first decline and then increase, especially since September [16]. - **Australia**: From January to September 2025, Australia's iron ore exports showed a pattern of low at first and then high, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.01%. From January to October 2025, China's imports of iron ore from Australia increased by 1.55% year - on - year. According to the capacity expansion plan, the main production capacity increments in Australia in 2025 come from the Xipo (officially put into production on June 6, 2025) and Onslow projects. If the weather remains normal, the iron ore shipments in the fourth quarter may maintain a certain increment [21]. - **Brazil**: From January to September 2025, Brazil's iron ore exports showed a pattern of low at first and then high, with a year - on - year increase of 4.48%. From January to October 2025, China's imports of iron ore from Brazil increased by 1.15% year - on - year. According to the capacity expansion plan, the main production capacity increment in Brazil in 2025 comes from Vale's S11D mining area expansion project (20 million tons). According to the capacity release plan, Brazil's iron ore exports may continue to grow in 2026 [26]. - **Major Mining Companies' Production and Shipment Targets**: - Rio Tinto: In fiscal year 2026, the shipment target will be increased by 20 - 28 million tons. From January to September 2025, the equity ore output was 210.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.68%. The SP10 shipments remained at a high level throughout the year, squeezing part of the PB share. The Xipo mining area was fully put into production on June 6, 2025, to maintain the production of PB powder, which is the main source of production increment for Rio Tinto in 2025 [27][32]. - BHP: In fiscal year 2026, the shipment target range will be increased by 2 million tons. From January to September 2025, BHP's output was 196 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.63%. In fiscal year 2025 (July 2024 - June 2025), BHP's 100% equity output was 29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.01%, reaching a record high. The South Slope mine was the main source of increment, with its capacity fully reaching 80 million tons per year in fiscal year 2025, and together with the C mining area, it forms the world's largest iron ore hub (total capacity of 145 million tons per year). Its high - grade ore (average iron grade of 62%) enhances BHP's product portfolio premium ability [33][38]. - FMG: In fiscal year 2026, the shipment target range will be increased by 5 million tons. From January to September 2025, FMG's output was 179.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.57%. In 2025, the shipments of Super Special Powder were at a high level, while the shipments of Mixed Powder were relatively weak. FMG has announced that the iron ore shipment target for fiscal year 2026 is set at 195 - 205 million tons, with both the upper and lower limits of the range increased by 5 million tons compared to the previous fiscal year. Among them, the shipment target for the Iron Bridge project is 10 - 12 million tons [40][44]. - Vale: In 2026, the target output will be increased by 10 million tons. From January to September 2025, Vale's iron ore output was 246 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.49%. The S11D production area is part of the Serra Sul mining complex in Vale's northern system. Vale proposed the Serra Sul 120Mtpy capacity growth project in August 2020, aiming to increase the annual production capacity of S11D by 20 million tons to 120 million tons, which is expected to be completed in the second half of 2026. The Serra Norte comprehensive mining area also belongs to the northern system, with an annual production capacity of 140 million tons. Vale is investing in the N3 mine maintenance project in this area, with a planned total investment of 84 million US dollars, and it is expected to be put into production in the first half of 2026. The Capanema Maximization project is a capacity growth plan proposed by Vale for its southeastern system, aiming to increase the combined output of the Fábrica Nova and Capanema mines, providing greater operational flexibility for the Mariana mining complex, with a planned investment of about 910 million US dollars. The Vargem Grande (VGR) complex is located in the southern system. Vale is carrying out the VGR 1 project in this area to maintain the operation of existing projects and promote the recovery of the mining area's production capacity. The VGR 1 project consists of three simultaneous sub - projects, with a total investment of 67 million US dollars. The increments from the S11D, Serra Norte, Vargem Grande, and Capanema mining areas may bring about 60 million tons of iron ore output increment for Vale in the next three years. It is expected that Vale's iron ore output will recover to the range of 340 - 360 million tons in 2026 [45][48]. - **Global Iron Ore Production Capacity Increment**: In 2026, the global iron ore production capacity is expected to increase by nearly 47 million tons, with the commissioning progress of Simandou attracting the most attention. There are expectations of increments in Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream regions in 2026 [50]. - **China's Domestic Supply**: In 2025, the iron concentrate output of 332 domestic mining enterprises is expected to reach 294.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.71%, mainly affected by environmental protection and safety inspections. In 2026, with the commissioning of new domestic production capacities and policy support, the output of finished ore (iron concentrate) is expected to increase slightly, with the increment mainly coming from the development of strategic resources in western regions such as Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang. From January to October 2025, China's total iron ore supply was about 1.276 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.95 million tons (+0.39%). In 2026, with the successive commissioning of new production capacities in Simandou and Brazilian iron ore projects, the total supply may increase by 1.3% [74]. Demand - **Overseas Demand**: In 2025, the overseas pig iron output generally declined, with India continuing to maintain rapid growth. From January to October 2025, the overseas pig iron output was 335 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.97%. Among the major overseas regions, India's pig iron output continued to maintain a high growth rate of +6.38%, while the pig iron output of other major steel - producing countries mainly declined. Among net - importing countries, the EU's pig iron output was 60.42 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.327 million tons (-5.5%); the pig iron outputs of Japan and South Korea were 48.799 million tons and 36.168 million tons respectively, with year - on - year declines of -4.01% and -1.88% respectively. Japan's pig iron output has shown a continuous downward trend in recent years. Under the interest - rate hike cycle, its domestic economy is weak, orders from the automobile and machinery industries have decreased, and steel demand has decreased by 10%. Due to inflation pressure, Japan may raise interest rates again at the end of 2025, which will have a negative impact on steel demand. South Korea's construction industry is in a slump, and the exports of traditional manufacturing industries such as automobiles and shipbuilding are blocked. The steel industry demand in 2026 may continue to be weak. Europe's pig iron output continues to decline. High - interest - rate policies have restricted investment and consumption, and the demand for construction, durable consumer goods such as automobiles and home appliances is weak. The euro - zone economy has maintained a low - growth state for a long time, suppressing steel demand [80][81][87]. - **Domestic Demand**: In 2025, the pig iron output is expected to be high at first and then stable, with a year - on - year increase of more than 4.2%. From January to October 2025, the estimated pig iron output was 768 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.4%. Since June, hot metal production reached its peak and slowly declined, and steel mill profits gradually decreased. However, since the downstream inventory has always been maintained at a low level, the inventory - accumulation effect has not yet appeared. The estimated pig iron output in 2025 is 923 million tons, with an expected year - on - year increase of 4.2%. In 2026, it is expected that the real estate demand will still be sluggish, the growth rate of infrastructure investment will slow down, and the manufacturing industry will have a fair growth rate [94][99][100]. Inventory - **Overall Inventory Trend**: In 2025, iron ore shipments first decreased and then increased, while demand first increased and then decreased. In 2026, inventory may continue to increase. From January to August 2025, under the situation of a decline in overseas shipments and higher - than - expected demand, the iron ore port inventory maintained a de - stocking trend. Since September, especially after October, imports increased rapidly while downstream demand weakened, and the inventory increased rapidly. As of the latest data in early December 2025, the iron ore inventory across the entire industrial chain increased by about 11.85 million tons compared to the end of 2024 to 292 million tons. Looking forward to 2026, with the release of new production capacity and the difficulty of demand growth, the iron ore inventory may continue to accumulate [111]. - **Inventory Variety Differentiation**: The inventory of different varieties shows obvious differentiation. The inventory of Australian ore has recently declined from a high level. Against the background of the slow decline of the total inventory in 15 major ports, the inventory of different varieties shows obvious differentiation. The inventory of Brazilian ore is relatively stable, and the inventory of Australian ore has recently started to rise. The inventory of low - grade ore declined significantly from September to October and has slightly rebounded recently. The overall level of medium - grade ore has increased, and the inventory of PB powder has declined significantly from the high level in September [112][114]. Cost and Price - The current global cash cost of 90% of iron ore is at the level of about $90 per ton. Without obvious incremental expectations for pig iron demand in major overseas countries and China, the iron ore supply - demand balance may be achieved through price cuts and reduced shipments, and the cost support around $85 is relatively strong [117][118].

（来源：紫金天风期货研究所） 来源：紫金天风期货研究所 【20251219】铁矿年报：故事重点或在供给端 行情回顾 观点小结 供应 静态测算，25年1-11月中国进口铁矿呈现先减后增态势，同比增加876万吨（1.5%）至11.4亿吨， 全年或将达到12.49亿吨以上。澳巴地区矿山新增产能在四季度发运量上提现，预计2026年进口量继续 小幅增长1.1%。 2025年国内铁矿石累计产量预计达到2.95亿吨同比下滑0.71%，4季度安全环保压力减轻，产量回升，26 年国产精粉预计同比增+2%。 铁矿石定价基准由62%铁品位下降至61%，定价体系或将调整。 2026年总供给同比增加1.3%至15.44亿吨。 需求 国内：25年房地产降幅减缓，基建同比正增长，制造业持续向好；测算铁矿全年需求量14.98亿 吨，同比增5997万吨(+4.23%)，预计26年铁矿全年需求保持平稳，变化较小。 海外：预计2026年海外主流铁矿进口国家的生铁产量略有下滑，印度、美国钢铁需求则持续向好。 库存 25年12月初45港库存1.54亿吨，25年矿山产能前期增幅缓慢，四季度开始放量；但需求增长韧性十 足，铁水呈现"淡季不淡"的特征，随着 ...

万林新（联系人） 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 关注宏观窗口兑现节点 铁矿石月报 从业资格号：F03133967 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 2025/12/05 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 库存 06 基差 01 月度评估及策略推荐 黑色产业链示意图 月度要点小结 ◆ 供应：测算11月全球铁矿石发运周均值3296.75万吨，环比+12.31万吨；11月，19港口径澳洲发往中国周均值1575.80万吨，较上月变化- 13.84万吨。巴西发运量周均值824.03万吨，较上月变化-24.57万吨。45港到港量周均值2631.63万吨，较上月环比-52.66万吨。 ◆ 需求：测算11月国内日均铁水产量235.30万吨，较上月变化-4.12万吨。 ◆ 库存：11月末，全国45个港口进口铁矿库存15210.12万吨，较上月末变化+667.64万吨；45港铁矿石日均疏港量周均值327.10万吨，较上月 变化+8.21万吨。钢厂进口铁矿石日耗周均值290.61万吨，较上月 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, there is still some room for growth in iron ore consumption, but explosive growth is unlikely. The supply - demand of iron ore is expected to continue to shift towards looseness. In the case of a 0.1% increase in domestic crude steel consumption, the iron ore supply - demand surplus will exceed 20 million tons. Considering the finished product end, the surplus of iron elements is higher. If the annual average price in 2026 is calculated at $95, high - cost non - mainstream mines will further reduce the volume sent to China compared to this year, and the decline in production may be lower than this value, which will support iron ore prices and limit the downside space. Throughout the year, iron ore prices will fluctuate within a certain range, and the volatility may further decline [6]. - In 2025, the iron ore price showed an N - shaped trend. The annual average price of the iron ore index is expected to be around $103, a decrease of about $6 compared to the 2024 average price of $109. The global iron ore supply was significantly lower than expected from January to October, leading to a reduction of 3.21 million tons in domestic port inventory. It is expected that the global iron ore demand will increase significantly in 2025, while the supply will increase slightly [7][8]. - In 2026, new global iron ore production capacity is expected to continue to be put into operation, with an estimated supply increment of about 50 million tons. This may lead to a further decline in the annual average price of iron ore and reduce the supply of non - mainstream iron ore with higher marginal costs. Overseas crude steel consumption is expected to grow by 2.0%, and production by 1.0%; domestic crude steel consumption will grow by 0.1% and production by 1.4%. China's net export of crude steel is expected to maintain high - level growth, increasing by 8.0% compared to 2025. The supply - demand of iron ore in 2026 remains relatively loose [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Iron Ore Market Review - **Price Trend**: The iron ore price in 2025 showed an N - shaped trend. The annual average price of the iron ore index is expected to be around $103, a decrease of about $6 compared to 2024 [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the iron ore main contract showed a volatile trend. Currently, it is still in a state of contango. After August, the spot performance was strong, and the futures fluctuated. Currently, the basis of PB powder main contract is at the median level in recent years [23]. - **Spread**: In the first half of 2025, the high - medium grade premium fluctuated downward. Subsequently, as steel mill profits were continuously compressed, the high - medium grade spread narrowed, and the medium - low grade spread widened [25]. 3.2 2025 Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis - **Overseas Demand**: From January to October 2025, overseas crude steel consumption increased by 2.2% year - on - year, and is expected to increase by 2.1% for the whole year. Overseas crude steel production increased by 0.3% year - on - year from January to October, and is expected to increase by 0.5% for the whole year. From January to October, overseas total iron production decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, and iron ore consumption decreased by 3.68 million tons [28]. - **Domestic Demand**: As of October 2025, domestic crude steel production increased by 4.5% year - on - year, and is expected to reach 1.135 billion tons for the whole year, an increase of 35.24 million tons. The consumption of scrap steel increased by 5.6% year - on - year from January to October, and is expected to increase by 3.7% for the whole year. Iron ore consumption is expected to increase by 47.28 million tons for the whole year [39]. - **Global Total Iron Production**: In 2025, global total iron production is expected to increase significantly. The proportion of China's total iron production in the global total iron production has rebounded [47]. - **Iron Ore Supply**: From January to October 2025, domestic iron ore imports were 1.03 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.04 million tons. It is expected that the net import of domestic iron ore will increase by 1.3% or 15.36 million tons for the whole year [53]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: From January to October, global iron ore consumption increased by 47.39 million tons, while supply increased by 3.01 million tons. It is expected that the global iron ore demand will increase significantly in 2025, while the supply will increase slightly. The supply - demand of iron ore in the second half of the year will shift from a tight pattern to a loose one [68]. 3.3 2026 Iron Ore Supply - Demand Outlook - **New Production Capacity**: In 2026, global iron ore production capacity is expected to continue to expand, with an estimated supply increment of about 50 million tons. This may lead to a further decline in the annual average price of iron ore and reduce the supply of non - mainstream iron ore with higher marginal costs [10]. - **Overseas Consumption**: In 2026, overseas crude steel consumption is expected to grow by 2.0%, and production by 1.0%. Overseas iron ore consumption is expected to increase by 8.54 million tons [83]. - **Domestic Consumption**: In 2026, domestic crude steel consumption is expected to grow by 0.1%, and production by 1.4%. China's net export of crude steel is expected to maintain high - level growth, increasing by 8.0% compared to 2025. China's iron ore consumption is expected to increase by nearly 20.24 million tons, and imports are expected to increase by nearly 40.44 million tons [90]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: Based on the above conditions, the supply - demand of iron ore in 2026 remains relatively loose [91].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the past month, the demand for iron ore fluctuated at a high level but gradually weakened. At the end of the month, environmental protection restrictions in Hebei were tightened, leading to a decline in molten iron production. Steel mills became more cautious in raw material procurement, actively reducing their imported ore inventories with weak restocking intentions. As the supply - demand situation eased, the demand side's driving force for ore prices significantly weakened [3][10][34]. - The first shipment of iron ore from Simandou is planned for November this year. Its production is expected to increase significantly in 2026 and enter a rapid growth phase from 2027 - 2028, which requires close attention. In October, the global iron ore shipment volume increased slightly month - on - month and remained at a high level. The arrival volume in China increased significantly. Considering the year - end rush expectation, the shipping rhythm of major mines is likely to remain active, and the arrival volume may continue to stay high [3][14][35]. - In the next month, the market focus will shift to the fundamentals. On the macro side, recent policy benefits have been intensively introduced, releasing positive sentiment. Fundamentally, iron ore demand is declining marginally, and the expectation of steel mill production cuts is strengthening, so molten iron production will continue to fall. On the supply side, overseas shipments and arrivals are expected to be stable, and port inventories may continue to accumulate. With weakening supply - demand, the iron ore price is expected to show a volatile and pressured trend, with a focus range of 700 - 810 yuan/ton [3][35]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - In October, iron ore futures fluctuated widely at a high level, first falling and then rising, and the price weakened at a high level in November. At the beginning of last month, due to the National Day holiday, concerns about weak terminal demand increased, and the ore price declined under pressure. The main contract dropped to around 760 yuan/ton. In the middle of the month, driven by macro - level benefits, the market sentiment gradually recovered. The iron ore price rebounded after reaching the bottom. The global shipment volume remained high last month, port inventories continued to accumulate, and the demand side weakened marginally. The daily average molten iron production decreased slightly month - on - month, and the supply - demand pattern shifted from tight balance to loose [8]. - The spot price adjusted oscillatingly. As of early November, the 62% Platts Index decreased by 1.2% month - on - month to $104.6/ton, and the PB powder spot price dropped by 2 yuan to 782 yuan/wet ton. The spread between high - and low - grade ores stopped falling and rebounded. The spread between PB powder and Super Special powder increased from around 70 yuan/ton to around 95 yuan/ton. The 01 - 05 contract spread oscillated last month, fluctuating narrowly in the range of 20 - 25 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Demand Driving Force Significantly Weakened - In October, the demand for iron ore fluctuated at a high level but gradually weakened. The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills in October was 240,100 tons/day, a month - on - month increase of 1,900 tons, but the weekly data decreased continuously month - on - month, dropping to 236,360 tons at the end of the month. Steel mill profits shrank significantly, and the profitability rate dropped to 52.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3%. Terminal steel demand was weak, and the pressure of steel inventory accumulation was transmitted to the raw material end, suppressing iron ore consumption. The port desilting volume decreased month - on - month, and steel mills actively reduced their imported ore inventories with weak restocking intentions [10][34]. - Overseas, in October, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. The crude steel production of major iron ore importing countries has been poor. In September 2025, the global crude steel production of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association statistics decreased by 1.6% year - on - year [11]. 3.2.2 Supply: Overseas Shipments Stable - China's iron ore imports decreased year - on - year this year, but the decline has recently narrowed. From January to September, China imported 917.69 million tons of iron ore, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea is expected to be put into operation smoothly, and the first shipment is planned for November this year. Its annual production capacity is 120 million tons, and it is expected to significantly increase production in 2026 and enter a rapid growth phase from 2027 - 2028 [14]. - In October, the global iron ore shipment volume increased slightly month - on - month and remained at a high level. The weekly average shipment volume reached 3.302 million tons, an increase of 18,000 tons compared with September. The shipments of major mines in Australia and Brazil were stable. The arrival volume in China increased significantly, and the monthly average weekly arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.438 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 92,000 tons [15]. 3.2.3 Iron Ore Port Inventory - In the previous month, port iron ore inventories continued to accumulate. As of October 31, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country reached 145.42 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.65 million tons. The inventory accumulation was due to weakening supply - demand. The arrival volume increased significantly, while the desilting volume decreased, and steel mills slowed down their restocking. In the future, the arrival volume will remain high, but the molten iron production is under pressure to decline, and the port inventory will enter a seasonal accumulation cycle [23][24]. 3.2.4 Steel Mill Inventory Situation - In October, steel mills actively reduced their inventories and became more cautious in procurement. As of the end of the month, the total imported ore inventory of 247 sample steel mills was 88.49 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio dropped to 30.35 days. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills has dropped to 52%, and cash profits have significantly declined. With the deepening of the downstream demand off - season and increasing finished product inventory pressure, it is expected that steel mills will mainly have rigid demand and there will be no large - scale restocking [26]. 3.2.5 Domestic Mine Production Situation - In October, the production of domestic iron ore mines was stable with a slight decline. Affected by environmental protection restrictions and safety production inspections, the iron concentrate powder production of national sample mines remained at around 47,600 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.21. The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines also declined to 60.96%. The supply elasticity of domestic mines is limited, and the market share of domestic mines has slightly shrunk [27][30]. 3.2.6 Shipping Freight Situation - In October, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was stable. As of November 4, the BDI index was reported at 1,958 points, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. On November 4, the freight rate for the Dampier - Qingdao route in Australia was $9.31/ton, a decrease of $0.26/ton in a month, and the freight rate for the Tubarao - Qingdao route in Brazil was $22.95/ton, a month - on - month decrease of $1.21/ton. It is expected that the shipping market will still lack driving force [31]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The demand side will continue to weaken. Steel mills will be more cautious in procurement, and the demand for iron ore will be further suppressed. The supply side is expected to remain stable, and port inventories may continue to accumulate. It is expected that the iron ore price will show a volatile and pressured trend, with a focus range of 700 - 810 yuan/ton [34][35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In November, global iron ore supply and demand will both decline, with a static tight supply - demand situation. The price movement is dynamic. The weak supply - demand pattern in the finished product segment continues, and steel mill profits are compressed. Attention should be paid to the decline in hot metal production in November. If the daily average production remains below 235,000 tons, there may be a negative feedback market. If the hot metal production remains high, ore prices will remain firm [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review In October, the prices of iron ore futures and spot goods fluctuated strongly. As of October 30, the futures price of the main contract increased by 22 yuan/ton month - on - month [3][5]. 3.2 Iron Ore Market Analysis - **Supply Side** - Four major mines are expected to reduce shipments by about 7.6 million tons in November compared to the previous month [6][29][35]. - Global non - mainstream shipments are relatively stable, with an estimated 44.6 million tons in November, a decrease of about 1.75 million tons month - on - month [6][32][35]. - Domestic mine production is expected to be 19.95 million tons in November, a decrease of 650,000 tons month - on - month [6][34][35]. - Overall, global supply will decrease by about 10 million tons in November [6][35]. - **Demand Side** - In October, China's national pig iron production is estimated to be 74.75 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.16%. In November, blast furnace hot metal production is expected to be 71.4 million tons, a decrease of 3.35 million tons month - on - month, resulting in a reduction of 5.88 million tons in iron ore demand [6][17][21]. - Outside China, the daily average pig iron production is stable for now. In November, pig iron production is estimated to decrease by 30,000 tons, resulting in a reduction of about 490,000 tons in the demand for 61% grade iron ore [6][20][21]. - Globally, iron ore demand will decrease by about 6.37 million tons in November [6][21]. 3.3 Steel Mill Profit Blast furnace profits are compressed, and electric furnace losses are expanding. As of the end of October, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.71%, a year - on - year increase of 2.57 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 89.94%, a year - on - year increase of 1.46 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 47.62%, a year - on - year decrease of 17.32 percentage points; the daily average hot metal production was 239,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28,300 tons [8][14]. 3.4 Iron Ore Inventory - Port inventory: At the end of October, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 145 million tons, an increase of 5 million tons month - on - month, and it is expected to decline slightly in November [36]. - Steel mill inventory: Steel mill inventory is close to the critical value, and there is a certain need for replenishment [38].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Supply remains high, downstream profits have significantly declined, and demand may continue to decline. However, downstream finished product inventories are still being reduced. In the short term, futures prices may remain strong, but there is a possibility of weakening [3]. - The monthly spread may remain volatile in the short term [3]. - The trading volume of iron ore spot has increased, while the trading volume of forward contracts has declined from a high level. The basis rate of the 01 contract is around 4.6%, the basis has slightly declined, and the basis rate has decreased [3]. - This week, the iron ore output of 247 samples announced by Steel Union was 239.9 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.05 tons. The average daily iron ore output in October was about 239.9 tons. Short-term demand has slightly decreased, and iron ore output may decline slowly [3]. - The inventory of 45 ports has increased by 139 tons week-on-week, and the proportion of trade ore is 64.1%. The total inventory of imported ore by steel mills has increased by 97 tons, the inventory at the plant has decreased by 36 tons, and the sum of sea - floating and port inventory has increased by 133 tons. The available days of imported ore have remained unchanged at 20 days [3]. - The profits of finished products have continued to decline significantly; the price difference between scrap iron in Tangshan has decreased; the proportion of lump ore in the furnace has slightly decreased, the proportion of pellet ore in the furnace has decreased; and the proportion of sinter in the furnace has continued to increase [3]. - The average value of the MA index in October was 104, corresponding to a disk valuation of about 822 [3]. - The premium of Jinbabu powder has weakened; the premiums of mainstream medium - and low - grade ores have remained stable; and the price difference between domestic and foreign ores has remained stable [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - On October 26, 2025, the 7 - day moving average shipment volume of global iron ore (excluding mainland China) was 4,655 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 2.89%. The 7 - day moving average shipment volume of Australia was 2,751 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The 7 - day moving average shipment volume of Brazil was 1,196 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.1% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [24]. - According to the iron ore balance sheet, the total supply in 2025/10 was 13,237, with production of 2,529 and imports of 10,708. Exports were 147. The total supply cumulative year - on - year growth rate was 0.1% [181]. Demand - The iron ore output of 247 samples was 239.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.05 tons. The average daily iron ore output in October was about 239.9 tons. Short - term demand has slightly decreased, and iron ore output may decline slowly [3]. - According to the balance sheet, the consumption in 2025/10 was 12,081, and the total consumption was 12,229 [181]. Inventory - The inventory of 45 ports increased by 139 tons week - on - week, and the proportion of trade ore was 64.1%. The total inventory of imported ore by steel mills increased by 97 tons, the inventory at the plant decreased by 36 tons, and the sum of sea - floating and port inventory increased by 133 tons. The available days of imported ore remained unchanged at 20 days [3]. Price and Basis - The basis rate of the 01 contract is around 4.6%, the basis has slightly declined, and the basis rate has decreased. The 1 - 5 monthly spread has shown a narrow - range oscillation [3][158]. - The prices of various iron ore varieties in the spot market have changed to different degrees. For example, on October 27, 2025, the price of PB powder was 791 yuan/wet ton, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 4 [160]. Market Outlook - Supply remains high, downstream profits have significantly declined, and demand may continue to decline. However, downstream finished product inventories are still being reduced. In the short term, futures prices may remain strong, but there is a possibility of weakening [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Supply of iron ore is rising, demand is declining, downstream profits are weakening, and after continuous inventory accumulation, futures prices may face downward pressure. The monthly spread may remain volatile in the short term, and the spot trading volume has increased. Iron water production may have reached its peak and is expected to decline. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Global iron ore shipments have increased, with shipments from Australia rising and those from Brazil recovering, while shipments from non - mainstream regions are weak. As of October 12, 2025, the 7 - day moving average shipment volume of global iron ore (excluding mainland China) was 4,550 thousand tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.35% and a year - on - year increase of 10.2%. Australian 7 - day moving average shipment volume was 2,816 thousand tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 18.2%. Brazilian 7 - day moving average shipment volume was 934.9 thousand tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 24.5% and a year - on - year increase of 13.9%. [3][24] Demand - The daily average molten iron production of 247 samples decreased by 0.31 tons week - on - week to 241.54 tons. The average daily molten iron production in October was about 241 tons. With more recent overhauls, the molten iron production may have reached its peak and is expected to decline. The profit of finished steel products continued to decline slightly, and the scrap - iron price difference in Tangshan decreased. [3] Inventory - The inventory of 45 ports increased by 232,400 tons week - on - week, and the proportion of traded ore was 65.23%. The total inventory of imported ore in steel mills decreased by 9.9 million tons, with the plant inventory decreasing by 2.8712 million tons and the sum of sea - floating and port inventory decreasing by 7.0348 million tons. The available days of imported ore decreased by 3 days to 21 days. The total inventory of the five major steel products increased, with the inventory of rebar increasing and the inventory of hot - rolled coils increasing significantly. [3] Price and Basis - The trading volume of iron ore spot and forward contracts increased significantly. The basis rate of the 01 contract was about 4%, with a slight increase in the basis and an upward basis rate. The 1 - 5 monthly spread fluctuated within a narrow range. [3][158] Variety Differences - The premium of Jinbabu powder weakened, the premiums of mainstream medium - low - grade ores were stable, and the price difference between domestic and foreign ores decreased. [3] Balance Sheet - The total supply of iron ore from 2025/1 to 2026/5 shows certain fluctuations, with production and imports being the main sources. Exports and consumption also vary in different months. There are periods of surplus and deficit. Although the molten iron production is expected to decline, the current level is still relatively high, and the recent consumption is slightly adjusted upwards. [181]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Static calculations suggest that China's iron ore imports in 2025 may first decrease and then increase, with a year - on - year reduction of 8.08 million tons (-0.5%) to 1.228 billion tons. The new production capacity of mines in Australia and Brazil is expanding more slowly than expected, and events such as abnormal weather significantly affect shipments. Shipments are expected to improve in the fourth quarter. The total supply will decrease by 7.95 million tons (-0.51%) to 1.525 billion tons. [5][102] - In terms of demand, in 2025, the decline in the real estate sector in China will slow down, infrastructure investment will show positive year - on - year growth, and the manufacturing industry will continue to improve. The annual iron ore demand is estimated to be 1.496 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 55.52 million tons (+3.85%). Overseas, the pig iron production in major iron ore - importing countries is expected to decline slightly, while India's steel demand will continue to be strong. [5][102] - As of early September 2025, the inventory at 45 ports was 138 million tons. Although the mine production capacity is slowly expanding in 2025, unexpected events such as abnormal weather have a large impact on shipments. The demand growth is resilient, and hot metal production shows the characteristic of "no off - season". Static calculations indicate that the iron ore supply - demand situation is moving towards a looser state, and there is a high possibility of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, but short - term supply - demand tightness may still occur. [5][102] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - Global Shipment: From January to August 2025, the global daily average shipment was 4.28 million tons/day, a 0.5% decrease compared to 4.3 million tons/day in the same period of the previous year. The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased significantly in the first quarter due to weather effects and then recovered to the previous year's level. The shipments from non - mainstream regions have been consistently low in recent years. [10] - Australia: From January to August 2025, Australia's global average daily shipment was 2.476 million tons/day, a 0.69% increase compared to the same period in 2024. The average daily shipment to China was 2.082 million tons/day, a 1.86% increase. The main production capacity increments in Australia in 2025 come from the Western Range (officially put into production on June 6, 2025) and the Onslow project (the capacity launch may be delayed until September due to road upgrades). If the weather remains normal, the iron ore shipments in the fourth quarter may maintain a certain increment. [13] - Major Australian Companies: - Rio Tinto: From January to August 2025, the average daily shipment was 804,000 tons/day, a 2.9% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. The Western Range project, which was fully put into production on June 6, 2025, is the main source of production capacity increment, but due to weather effects, the annual shipment target is affected. [17] - BHP: From January to August 2025, the average daily shipment was 791,000 tons/day, a 1.28% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In the 2025 fiscal year (July 2024 - June 2025), BHP's 100% equity production reached 29 million tons, a record high. The South Flank mine may be the main source of increment, with a stable annual production capacity of 80 million tons in the 2025 fiscal year. It is expected that BHP will achieve a high - level production in 2025, and there will be no new projects put into production in the fourth quarter. [22] - FMG: From January to August 2025, the average daily shipment was 517,000 tons/day, a 4.87% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In the 2025 fiscal year, the target range was broadened to 190 - 202 million tons. The Iron Bridge project was originally scheduled to reach full production in September 2025 but has been postponed to the 2028 fiscal year. [27] - Brazil: From January to August 2025, Brazil's average daily shipment was 1.0391 million tons/day, a 2.2% increase compared to the same period in the previous year. Vale's average daily shipment was 951,600 tons/day, a 1.02% decrease compared to the same period in the previous year. In the first half of 2025, Vale's total production was 151 million tons, a 0.3% year - on - year decrease. The production in 2025 is expected to be close to the lower limit of the target (about 325 million tons) mainly due to the licensing issues in the Serra Norte mining area restricting the increment. The Capanema project is expected to be put into production in the first half of 2025, adding 15 million tons of production capacity. The S11D +20 mining area is expected to release production capacity in 2026. [31] - Non - mainstream Regions: In 2025, the iron ore shipments from India decreased significantly, while Canada increased its exports due to cost reduction through new technologies, and South Africa's export increment was mainly due to the optimization of railway transportation capacity. From January to August 2025, Canada's average daily shipment was 164,500 tons/day, a 5.85% year - on - year increase, and South Africa's average daily shipment was 152,300 tons, a 3.8% year - on - year increase. [36][41] - China's Domestic Production: In the first seven months of 2025, China's cumulative iron ore production decreased by 3.28% year - on - year. In the fourth quarter, production is expected to recover, and the domestic iron concentrate powder production in 2025 is expected to increase by 0.05% year - on - year to 297 million tons. Some new production capacities (such as the first - phase project of Liaoning Sishanling Iron Mine and Hebei Macheng Iron Mine) have been postponed, and safety and environmental inspections in Northeast and North China have led to the phased shutdown of small and medium - sized mines. [5][51] Demand - Domestic: In 2025, the decline in the real estate sector will slow down, infrastructure investment will show positive year - on - year growth, and the manufacturing industry will continue to improve. The annual iron ore demand is estimated to be 1.496 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 55.52 million tons (+3.85%). From January to July 2025, the estimated pig iron production was 617 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.32%. The estimated pig iron production in 2025 is 920 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.65%. [5][73] - Overseas: From January to July 2025, overseas pig iron production was 234 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.31%. Among the main overseas regions, India's pig iron production continued to grow at a high rate of 7.05%, while the pig iron production in other major steel - producing countries mainly declined. [56] Inventory - Port Inventory: In the first half of 2025, due to the decline in overseas shipments and unexpected demand, the iron ore inventory at ports decreased significantly. As of September 2025, the total inventory in the iron ore industry chain decreased by about 13.6 million tons compared to the end of 2024 to 192 million tons. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2025, with the release of new production capacities and the slow decline in downstream demand, the downward trend of iron ore inventory may be reversed. [86] - Variety - specific Inventory: Based on data from 15 major ports, while the total inventory is slowly decreasing, there is significant differentiation among varieties. The inventory of Brazilian ore first decreased and then increased, and the inventory of Australian ore has recently decreased significantly. The inventory of low - grade ore has decreased significantly, the overall level of medium - grade ore has increased, and the inventory of PB fines has started to reach a high level. [90] Price - In the absence of obvious incremental expectations for pig iron demand in major overseas countries and in China, the iron ore supply - demand balance will be achieved through price cuts and shipment reductions, and the cost support around $80 - 85 per ton is relatively strong. [94]