1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper market is expected to be supported by the situation of increasing supply and demand and decreasing inventory. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract first declined and then rose, with a weekly increase of 1.26%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 95,930 yuan/ton [7] - **International Economic Outlook**: The OECD's latest economic outlook report predicts that the global economic growth rate will be 2.9% in 2026 and will slightly rebound to 3% in 2027. The US economic growth rate will slow from 2% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027, and the inflation rate this year will reach 4.2%, much higher than the Fed's expectation [7] - **Domestic Diplomatic Events**: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi discussed the Middle East situation and the Iranian nuclear issue with Canadian Foreign Minister Anand. Both the US and Iran are willing to restart negotiations, and the international community should encourage them to return to the negotiation table [7] - **Fundamentals**: The spot index of copper concentrate TC has continued to reach new lows, and the expectation of tightening global copper mine supply has gradually strengthened, providing strong cost support for copper prices. The utilization rate of copper smelter production capacity has gradually recovered, but the pressure of global raw material supply and the rapid decline of domestic copper concentrate port inventory in the first quarter may limit the growth rate of domestic production. With the arrival of the peak season and the decline of copper prices due to geopolitical conflicts, the production enthusiasm of domestic downstream copper processing enterprises has been boosted, and they are replenishing inventory at low prices. The inflection point of social inventory decline has been confirmed, and industry demand is gradually improving [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Contracts**: As of March 27, 2026, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 610 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,695 yuan/ton. The main contract was quoted at 95,930 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1,190 yuan/ton, and the open interest was 187,395 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 13,786 lots [14] - **Spot Prices**: As of March 27, 2026, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 95,320 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1,355 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of the Shanghai copper main contract was 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton [17] - **Copper Premium and Position**: As of the latest data this week, the CIF average premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was $65/ton, a week - on - week increase of $12.5/ton. The net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was 56,038 lots, an increase of 6,979 lots compared with last week [26] - **Options Market**: As of March 27, 2026, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main at - the - money option contract was above the 75th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper options open interest was 0.9, with a week - on - week change of 0.067 [31] 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Copper Ore Quotations and Processing Fees**: As of the latest data this week, the copper concentrate quotation in the main mining area (Jiangxi) was 85,920 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,520 yuan/ton. The processing fee for southern crude copper this week was 1,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 700 yuan/ton [34] - **Copper Ore Imports and Scrap - Refined Spread**: As of February 2026, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.3103 million tons, a decrease of 312,800 tons from January, a decline of 11.92% and a year - on - year increase of 5.96%. As of the latest data this week, the scrap - refined copper spread (including tax) was 4,784.51 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 997.73 yuan/ton [39] - **Global Copper Mine Production and Port Inventory**: As of December 2025, the global monthly production value of copper concentrates was 2,050,000 tons, an increase of 159,000 tons from November, an increase of 8.41%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 82.3%, an increase of 3.6% from November. As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 315,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 89,000 tons [44] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Refined Copper Production**: As of December 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.326 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons from November, an increase of 7.28% and a year - on - year increase of 6.76%. As of January 2026, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,426,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from December, a decline of 0.16%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 78.6%, a decrease of 0.3% from December [46] - **Refined Copper Imports**: As of February 2026, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 203,588.219 tons, a decrease of 47,080.37 tons from January, a decline of 18.78% and a year - on - year decline of 33.28% [54] - **Social Inventory**: As of the latest data this week, the LME total inventory increased by 17,475 tons week - on - week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 1,011 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 50,776 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 440,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45,400 tons [57] 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Copper Products Production and Imports**: As of December 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.2291 million tons, an increase of 3,100 tons from November, an increase of 0.14%. As of February 2026, the monthly import volume of copper products was 320,000 tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons from January, a decline of 15.79% and a year - on - year decline of 23.81% [64] - **Power Grid Investment and Home Appliance Production**: As of December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 5.11% and - 4.65% respectively. As of December 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of the monthly production values of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs were - 4.4%, - 9.6%, 5.7%, 7%, and - 1.2% respectively [68] - **Real Estate Investment and Integrated Circuit Production**: As of February 2026, the cumulative completed real estate development investment was 96.1211 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1% and a month - on - month increase of 88.39%. As of February 2026, the cumulative production of integrated circuits was 81.52 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 12.4% and a month - on - month increase of 83.17% [74] 3.6 Overall Situation - **Global Supply - Demand Situation**: According to ICSG statistics, as of January 2026, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 17,000 tons. According to WBMS statistics, as of January 2026, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 129,300 tons [79]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper market's fundamentals may be in a stage where supply is increasing and demand is stable, with the seasonal inventory accumulation in the industry showing a decline. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions with a light position at low prices, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [6][7] Summary by Section 1. Weekly Highlights - **Market Performance**: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated and declined, with a weekly change of - 0.73%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 100,310 yuan/ton [6] - **Inflation Data**: In the US, the seasonally adjusted CPI in February increased by 0.3% month - on - month and 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year. In China, the CPI in February increased by 1.3% year - on - year, the highest in nearly three years, and the core CPI increased by 1.8% year - on - year. The national PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for three consecutive months [6] - **Fundamentals**: The TC spot index of copper concentrates reached a new low again, and the expectation of tight mines still supported copper prices. The operating rate of smelters gradually recovered, and copper production might increase significantly month - on - month. Upstream holders held firm on prices. Although the copper price on the disk adjusted, the spot copper still maintained a relatively strong premium. Downstream buyers replenished inventory at low prices as the copper price adjusted, and consumption generally remained stable. Domestic copper inventory was still in the seasonal accumulation stage, but the accumulation slowed down due to the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season [6] 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Futures Contract**: As of March 13, 2026, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 205 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 290 yuan/ton. The main contract was priced at 100,310 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 740 yuan/ton, and the position volume was 190,853 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 4,829 lots [13] - **Spot Price**: As of March 13, 2026, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 100,515 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 890 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of the main contract was - 450 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton [16] - **Premium and Position**: As of the latest data this week, the CIF average premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 44 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 US dollar/ton. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 83,483 lots, a decrease of 10,597 lots from last week [23] - **Options Market**: As of March 13, 2026, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money options contract of the Shanghai copper main contract was above the 75th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper options positions was 0.73, a week - on - week decrease of 0.007 [29] 3. Industry Situation Upstream - **Mining Quotes and Processing Fees**: As of the latest data this week, the copper concentrate quote in the main mining area (Jiangxi) was 90,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 240 yuan/ton. The processing fee for southern crude copper this week was 2,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 200 yuan/ton [32] - **Imports and Price Difference**: As of December 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.7043 million tons, an increase of 178,000 tons from November, a growth rate of 7.05% and a year - on - year growth rate of 7.24%. As of the latest data this week, the price difference between refined and scrap copper (including tax) was 4,448.18 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 710 yuan/ton [37] - **Global Production and Inventory**: As of November 2025, the global monthly production value of copper concentrates was 1,923 thousand tons, a decrease of 11 thousand tons from October, a decline of 0.57%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 78.8%, an increase of 1.9% from October. As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 485,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29,000 tons [42] Supply Side - **Refined Copper Production**: As of December 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.326 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons from November, a growth rate of 7.28% and a year - on - year growth rate of 6.76%. As of December 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,431 thousand tons, an increase of 70 thousand tons from November, a growth rate of 2.96%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 80.2%, a decrease of 0.6% from November [44] - **Refined Copper Imports**: As of December 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 298,027.317 tons, a decrease of 6,677.56 tons from November, a decline of 2.19% and a year - on - year decline of 27%. As of the latest data this week, the import profit and loss amount was 401.14 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 297.42 yuan/ton [51][52] - **Social Inventory**: As of the latest data this week, the total LME inventory increased by 28,025 tons week - on - week, the total COMEX inventory decreased by 5,695 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 425 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 577,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,300 tons [57] Downstream and Application - **Copper Products**: As of December 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.2291 million tons, an increase of 3,100 tons from November, a growth rate of 0.14%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 440,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from November, a growth rate of 2.33% and a year - on - year decline of 21.43% [63] - **Power Grid and Appliance**: As of December 2025, the cumulative investment completion of power and grid increased by 5.11% and - 4.65% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production values of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs decreased by 4.4%, 9.6%, increased by 5.7%, 7%, and decreased by 1.2% year - on - year respectively [67] - **Real Estate and Integrated Circuits**: As of December 2025, the cumulative investment completion of real estate development was 827.8814 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2% and a month - on - month increase of 5.34%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 48,427,948.1 ten - thousand pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.9% and a month - on - month increase of 12.14% [74] Overall Situation - **Global Supply and Demand**: According to ICSG statistics, as of December 2025, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 173 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, as of December 2025, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 98,000 tons [79][80]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper supply side is disturbed, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. In January, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.8 - point drop from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity; the situation is bullish [3]. - The spot price of copper is 101,580, with a basis of 500, showing a premium over futures; the situation is neutral [3]. - On March 5, copper inventories increased by 20,675 to 282,200 tons, and SHFE copper inventories increased by 119,054 tons from the previous week to 391,529 tons; the situation is neutral [3]. - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward; the situation is bearish [3]. - The main net position is long, but the long position is decreasing; the situation is bullish [3]. - Geopolitical disturbances remain, and the incident at Indonesia's Grasberg Block Cave mine is fermenting. Copper prices have reached a new historical high and are currently fluctuating at a high level. In the short term, they will move in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to events in the Middle East [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Daily View - The copper market has a complex situation with multiple factors affecting it, and in the short term, it will show a volatile trend [3]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: Global policy easing and tight mining supply, geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine and Iran - Israel, potential Fed rate cuts, and slow mining production growth along with the production cut event at Freeport's Indonesian mine [4][5]. - Bearish factors: Repeated US comprehensive tariffs and the fact that the global economy is not optimistic, and high copper prices will suppress downstream consumption [5]. Spot - No specific summary content as the table in the original text only lists headings [7]. 期现价差 - No specific content provided [8]. Exchange Inventory - No specific content provided [12]. Bonded Area Inventory - Bonded area inventories are rising from a low level [14]. Processing Fee - Processing fees are falling [16]. CFTC - No specific content provided [18]. Supply - Demand Balance - There will be a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations in different years, with a surplus of 110,000 tons in 2024 [20][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply side of copper has disturbances, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. In January, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a 0.8 percentage point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity; this is bullish [2]. - The spot price is 101,445, with a basis of -4,055, showing a discount to the futures; this is bearish [2]. - On February 3, copper inventories increased by 1,450 to 176,125 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories increased by 7,067 tons to 233,004 tons compared to the previous week; this is neutral [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving upward; this is bullish [2]. - The main positions are net long, and the long positions are increasing; this is bullish [2]. - Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia has fermented. Copper prices have reached a new historical high and are currently fluctuating at a high level. Attention should be paid to position control [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Copper's fundamentals are bullish due to supply - side disturbances and PMI decline; the basis is bearish; inventory is neutral; the盘面 is bullish; main positions are bullish; and there are geopolitical risks [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多 factors**: Global policy easing and mine - end tightness, including geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine and Iran - Israel, potential Fed rate cuts, and slow mine - end production increase and the free port Indonesia mine's production reduction event [3][4]. - **利空 factors**: Unexpectedly high US tariffs and the global economic situation not being optimistic, as high copper prices may suppress downstream consumption [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [19]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different production, import, export, consumption, and balance situations from 2018 - 2024 [21]. Other Information - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. - The processing fee has declined [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Microscopically, there is a long - term bullish view on copper, with a strong price trend. However, increased macro - level disturbance factors lead to greater price fluctuations. The macro situation includes the US December non - farm payrolls falling short of expectations, the unemployment rate increase hitting a new low since 2020, and the market expecting the Fed to cut interest rates by about 50 basis points in 2026, with the probability of a January rate cut at zero and the first cut expected in June. The US Supreme Court has not announced a verdict on Trump's tariffs, and the next ruling will be on January 14. China's December CPI year - on - year increase reached a 34 - month high, and PPI increased month - on - month for three consecutive months [7]. - Fundamentally, the short - term domestic spot driving logic has temporarily weakened, while the overseas spot logic remains strong. The global copper inventory increased this week, with a significant increase in social inventory. As of January 8, 2026, the global total inventory was 950,300 tons, an increase of 44,900 tons from January 1. The domestic social inventory increased by 39,400 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 15,300 tons. The domestic spot discount has narrowed to 45 yuan/ton, indicating that the decline in price has led to a rebound in downstream demand. The LME 0 - 3 premium has expanded from $38.60/ton on January 2 to $41.94/ton on January 9 [7]. - In the long term, the fundamentals still support the copper price. The port inventory of copper concentrates has continued to decline, dropping rapidly from 680,000 tons on December 26 to 428,000 tons on January 9. The long - term TC for imported copper concentrates in China in 2026 is $0/ton, significantly lower than the 2025 level, which indicates a tight supply of copper concentrates. China is preventing blind investment and disorderly construction in smelters and encouraging large backbone enterprises to implement mergers and reorganizations to improve industrial competitiveness, which may also lead to structural changes in the smelting industry. From the consumption side, the long - term consumption recovery expectation remains strong, and the consumption logic of emerging industries such as AI computing centers is constantly strengthening. Giants like OpenAI and Microsoft are increasing infrastructure investment, and many places in the US are promoting gigawatt - scale cluster projects, with single - project investment exceeding $10 billion, focusing on the deployment of high - density liquid - cooling technology. At the same time, local US governments are attracting investment through incentive policies such as tax exemptions and fee - for - tax deductions. However, policy uncertainties brought about by the mid - term elections and the Fed's leadership change may affect the industry's investment rhythm and implementation process. In addition, new energy vehicles and global power grid upgrades remain the core driving forces, and power grid renovations in Europe and the US and the expansion of the manufacturing industry in Southeast Asia continue to contribute to the increase [7]. - In terms of trading strategies, the short - term rigid replenishment of downstream enterprises provides a bottom support for prices. Based on the long - term positive fundamentals, the idea of buying copper on dips remains unchanged. Currently, the price fluctuates greatly, so it is particularly important to find a good safety margin for buying. In terms of spread trading, the current profit margin for spot exports has narrowed, so be cautious with internal - external reverse arbitrage [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - **Volatility**: The volatility of LME, SHFE, INE, and COMEX copper has expanded. The LME copper price volatility is around 20%, and the SHFE copper volatility has reached about 25%, showing a significant rebound from the previous week [13]. - **Term Spread**: The term structure of SHFE copper has weakened marginally. The spread between SHFE 01 - 02 contracts was - 200 yuan/ton on January 9, 2026, lower than 560 yuan/ton on December 31. The LME copper spot premium has expanded, with the LME 0 - 3 premium reaching $41.94/ton on January 9, higher than $38.60/ton on January 2. The near - end C structure of COMEX copper has expanded, with the price spread between the February and March 2026 contracts being - $68.34/ton on January 9, significantly wider than - $55.12/ton on January 2 [20]. - **Position**: The positions of SHFE and INE copper have increased, with the SHFE copper position increasing by 63,900 lots to 681,600 lots, while the LME copper position has decreased [21]. - **Fund and Industry Positions**: The net short position of LME commercial enterprises has decreased, from 77,500 lots on December 24 to 72,600 lots on January 2. The net long position of CFTC non - commercial enterprises has decreased from 59,800 lots on December 30 to 57,900 lots on January 6 [27]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: The domestic copper spot discount has narrowed, from a discount of 190 yuan/ton on December 31 to a discount of 45 yuan/ton on January 9, 2026. The Yangshan Port copper premium has declined, from $51/ton on December 31 to $42/ton on January 9. The US copper premium has remained at a high level. The Rotterdam copper premium has increased from $185/ton on January 2 to $200/ton on January 9, and the Southeast Asian copper premium has remained at $187.5/ton [34]. - **Inventory**: The global total copper inventory has increased, from 905,500 tons on January 1, 2026, to 950,300 tons on January 8. The domestic social inventory has increased, from 238,900 tons on January 1 to 273,800 tons on January 8, reaching a high level in the same period of history. The bonded area inventory has increased from 75,500 tons on December 31 to 78,800 tons on January 8. The COMEX inventory has increased and is at a high level in the same period of history, rising from 499,800 short tons on January 2 to 518,000 short tons on January 9. The LME copper inventory has decreased, from 155,300 tons on January 2 to 139,000 tons on January 9 [38]. - **Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: The position - to - inventory ratio of SHFE copper 02 contract has declined and is at a low level in the same period of history. The LME copper position - to - inventory ratio has fluctuated, indicating that the overseas spot lacks a driving logic [39]. 3.2 Supply End - **Copper Concentrates**: The import of copper concentrates has increased year - on - year. According to customs data, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates in November 2025 were 2.5262 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.05% and a year - on - year increase of 12.55%. The port inventory of copper concentrates has decreased, from 496,000 tons on January 2 to 428,000 tons on January 9. The processing fee for copper concentrates has remained weak, and the smelting loss has decreased from 1,988 yuan/ton on December 31 to 2,016 yuan/ton on January 9, 2026 [45]. - **Recycled Copper**: The import of recycled copper has increased. In November, the import of recycled copper was 208,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.94%. In September, the domestic production of recycled copper was 97,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.85%. The price difference between refined and recycled copper has expanded and is higher than the break - even point, and the import loss of recycled copper has turned into a profit [46][51]. - **Blister Copper**: The import of blister copper has increased month - on - month. In November, the import was 58,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.60%. In December, the processing fee for blister copper has recovered, with the southern processing fee at 1,500 yuan/ton and the import processing fee at $95/ton [55]. - **Refined Copper**: The domestic production of refined copper has increased year - on - year. In November, the production was 1.1031 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.75%, and the cumulative production from January to November was 12.2545 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.76%. It is expected that the production in December will be 1.0955 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.69%. The import volume of refined copper has decreased. In November, the import was 271,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.67%. China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products in November were 430,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.87%. The loss of copper spot imports has narrowed, from a loss of 1,083.72 yuan/ton on December 31 to a loss of 981.04 yuan/ton on January 9, 2026 [58]. 3.3 Demand End - **Operating Rate**: In November, the operating rates of copper tube and copper plate and strip foil enterprises have rebounded but are at a low level in the same period of history. In the week of January 8, the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises has declined marginally [62]. - **Profit**: The processing fee for copper rods has rebounded but is at a low level in the same period of history. As of January 9, the processing fee for copper rods used in the power industry in East China was 410 yuan/ton, higher than 240 yuan/ton on December 31. The processing fee for copper tubes has rebounded and is at a high level in the same period of history. On January 9, the 10 - day moving average of the processing fee for R410A special copper tubes was 5,368 yuan/ton, higher than 5,343 yuan/ton on December 31. The processing fees for copper plates and strips and lithium - ion copper foils have remained stable and are at a low level [67]. - **Raw Material Inventory**: In November, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a moderately low level in the same period of history, and the raw material inventory of copper tubes was at a low level in the same period of history. The weekly raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises has continued to decline [68]. - **Finished Product Inventory**: In November, the finished product inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a high level in the same period of history, and the finished product inventory of copper tubes was at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The weekly finished product inventory of wire and cable enterprises has decreased [71]. 3.4 Consumption End - **Apparent Consumption**: The domestic actual consumption of copper has performed well. From January to November, the cumulative consumption was 14.5615 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.14%. From January to November, the apparent consumption was 14.6431 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.44%. Industries such as power grid investment, home appliances, and new energy are important supports for copper consumption. Among them, the growth rate of power grid investment has slowed down. From January to November, the cumulative power grid investment was 560.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.90% [78]. - **Air - Conditioner and New Energy Vehicle Production**: In November, the domestic air - conditioner production was 10.577 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 35.70%. In November, the domestic new energy vehicle production was 1.88 million units, a year - on - year increase of 20.05% [79].

Report Summary - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View of the Report**: The supply side of copper is disturbed with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap - copper policy being relaxed. The December manufacturing PMI reached 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, entering the expansion range. There are still geopolitical disturbances, and the copper price has reached a new high and fluctuates greatly at a high level. Attention should be paid to position control [3] Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disturbances, smelting production cuts, relaxed scrap - copper policy, and December manufacturing PMI rising to 50.1% indicate a bullish trend [3] - **Basis**: Spot price is 103,700 with a basis of - 1,620, showing a discount to futures, which is bearish [3] - **Inventory**: On January 7, copper inventory increased by 3,525 tons to 146,075 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 33,639 tons to 145,342 tons compared with last week, considered neutral [3] - **Market Chart**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [3] - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, but the long position is decreasing, still bullish [3] - **Expectation**: Geopolitical disturbances exist, and the Grasberg Block Cave mine event in Indonesia has fermented. The copper price has reached a new high and fluctuates greatly at a high level [3] Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: Global policy easing and tight mine supply, geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine and Iran - Israel, Fed rate cuts, and slow mine production increase with the Freeport Indonesia mine production cut event [4][5] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Unexpectedly high US tariffs and the global economic situation not being optimistic, with high copper prices suppressing downstream consumption [5] Supply - Demand Balance - **Overall Situation**: There will be a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [21] - **China's Annual Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2018 to 2024, production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data are presented, with a surplus of 110,000 tons in 2024 [23] Other Information - **Bonded - Area Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [15] - **Processing Fee**: The processing fee has declined [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, China's refined copper production is expected to decline slightly, but consumption remains supported, with a tendency for supply to exceed demand. Overseas demand is expected to be slightly weak, while the US tariff expectation continues to push the spot price higher. At the macro - level, the marginal relaxation of US financial liquidity, moderate domestic policy stimulus, and the enhanced strategic resource value due to overseas geopolitical disturbances are still favorable factors. Overall, the copper price is expected to remain at a high level with a slowdown in the upward trend. The operating range of the main SHFE copper contract is expected to be between 92,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton, and the LME 3M copper is expected to be between 11,500 - 13,200 US dollars/ton. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or try to go long after a decline [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Points Summary - **Supply**: Overseas copper mine supply has marginal disturbances, the tight supply pattern of copper mines remains unchanged, and the supply of blister copper is relatively loose. In December 2025, China's refined copper production rebounded, and it is expected to decrease slightly in January [9]. - **Demand**: In December 2025, China's apparent consumption of refined copper is estimated to decline. In January, the downstream start - up is expected to remain stable. Overseas manufacturing prosperity is differentiated, and the demand expectation is slightly weak [9]. - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, the loss of SHFE copper spot imports first widened and then narrowed. The price difference between US copper and LME copper weakened but remained positive [9]. - **Inventory**: In December 2025, the inventories of SHFE and COMEX increased, the LME inventory decreased, the bonded - area inventory remained stable, and the total inventory increased, but there are still structural problems. It is estimated that China's inventory will continue to accumulate in January [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Market Review**: In December 2025, the copper price fluctuated strongly. The main SHFE copper contract rose 12.4% and hit the 100,000 - yuan mark. The LME 3M copper contract rose 11.8%. The US dollar index weakened, and the offshore RMB broke through the 7 - yuan mark [17]. - **Market Spreads**: In December 2025, the loss of SHFE copper spot imports first widened and then narrowed. At the end of the month, the domestic copper price was stronger than the LME copper price. The COMEX - LME copper price difference fluctuated and narrowed, and the expectation of future tariffs continued to support the spread [19]. - **Inventory and Basis**: As of the end of December 2025, the total inventory of the three major exchanges plus the Shanghai bonded area was about 840,000 tons, an increase of 98,000 tons from the end of November. The LME copper inventory decreased, and the COMEX copper inventory increased. The LME market's Cash/3M strengthened, and the domestic basis weakened [22][25]. - **Fund Sentiment**: As of late December 2025, the CFTC fund position remained net long, with the net - long ratio rising to 22.6%. The long - position ratio of LME investment funds remained relatively high, and the sentiment was positive [28]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - **Copper Mines**: In November 2025, Chile's copper production decreased by 7.2% year - on - year to 452,000 tons. In October 2025, Peru's copper production increased by 4.8% year - on - year to 248,000 tons. In December 2025, the inventory of copper concentrates at major Chinese ports rebounded, and the spot supply was slightly loose. The spot TC of copper concentrates fluctuated and declined, and the 2026 annual long - term contract benchmark price was set at 0 US dollars/ton [33][36]. - **Refined Copper**: In December 2025, the domestic blister copper processing fee continued to rise, and the supply of cold materials remained relatively loose. The price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting, strengthened. China's refined copper production increased significantly in December 2025, and it is expected to decrease slightly in January 2026 [39][42]. - **Recycled Copper**: In December 2025, the average price difference between refined and scrap copper in China was about 4,300 yuan/ton, widening month - on - month. The start - up rate of recycled copper rod enterprises remained weak [45]. 3.3.2 Demand - **China**: In December 2025, the apparent consumption of domestic refined copper is estimated to be 1.356 million tons, a significant year - on - year decline. The cumulative apparent consumption from January to December 2025 was about 16.29 million tons, a 4.3% year - on - year increase. The average start - up rate of copper products enterprises is expected to decline in December 2025 and remain stable in January 2026. The start - up rate of refined copper rod enterprises weakened in December 2025, and the start - up rate of wire and cable enterprises is expected to rebound slightly in January 2026. The power investment decreased year - on - year in November 2025, and the new photovoltaic installation decreased year - on - year. The real - estate transaction data in December 2025 was weaker than the same period last year, and the automobile sales data was relatively strong [48][51][54]. - **Overseas**: In December 2025, the manufacturing prosperity of major overseas economies was differentiated. According to ICSG data, the global refined copper consumption increased slightly year - on - year in October 2025, and the consumption from January to October increased by about 5.1% [63]. 3.4 Macro Analysis - In November 2025, the US unemployment rate rose, and inflation data weakened. The Fed's monetary policy is expected to remain loose. In December 2025, the US dollar index fluctuated weakly, and the 10 - year inflation expectation in the US gradually stabilized, showing a relative divergence from the copper price trend [67][69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper market has a neutral fundamental situation with supply disruptions, relaxed scrap - copper policies, and a marginal improvement in the manufacturing PMI [2]. - The basis shows a discount to futures, which is bearish; the inventory situation is neutral; the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average with an upward - running 20 - day moving average, which is bullish; the main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [2]. - Geopolitical disturbances remain, and the copper price has reached a new high and will run at a high level in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disruptions with smelter production cuts and relaxed scrap - copper policies. The November China Manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, still in the contraction range but showing marginal improvement [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 94810 with a basis of - 1290, indicating a discount to futures [2]. - **Inventory**: On December 24th, copper inventory decreased by 1550 to 157025 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 6416 tons to 95805 tons compared to last week [2]. - **Disk**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward - running [2]. - **Main Positions**: The main net positions are short, and short positions increased [2]. - **Expectation**: Geopolitical disturbances remain, the Grasberg Block Cave mine event in Indonesia is fermenting, and the copper price has reached a new high and will run at a high level in the short term [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Influential Factors**: Global policy easing and trade - war escalation are considered in the logic, but no clear separation between positive and negative factors is given [3]. Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: On December 24th, copper inventory decreased by 1550 to 157025 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 6416 tons to 95805 tons compared to last week [2]. - **Bonded - Area Inventory**: Bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fee - Processing fees have declined [15]. Supply - Demand Balance - The market is expected to be in a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [19]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 - 2024. For example, in 2024, production was 12060000 tons, imports were 3730000 tons, exports were 460000 tons, apparent consumption was 15340000 tons, actual consumption was 15230000 tons, and the supply - demand balance was a surplus of 110000 tons [21].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the resupply rhythm of copper concentrates is expected to be tight in the first quarter and looser later, with the supply - demand situation possibly shifting from "shortage" in 2025 to "tight balance". High copper prices during the off - season and the potential adjustment pressure on prices are offset by tight raw materials, reduced domestic refined copper supply and refinery exports. The key to copper trading is the rhythm, and after a short - term adjustment, copper prices may continue to rise around the peak season next year [1][2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2026 Copper Concentrate Resupply Rhythm - In 2026, the global copper concentrate supply growth rate is expected to rebound to around 2%, with an increment of about 450,000 tons. The supply difference will vary quarterly, being tightest in the first quarter, and the market will focus on new projects in the second quarter, large - mine复产 in the third quarter, and new projects' production increase in the fourth quarter [1] "High Copper Price + Low Consumption" and Refinery Scheduling - The Shanghai copper price has exceeded 95,000 yuan, with a high position of 640,000 lots. During the off - season, the divergence between the rising copper price and domestic spot supply - demand signals has widened. The domestic copper social inventory has slowly increased to 168,400 tons, and the copper product start - up rate is expected to be lower than last year. However, the CSPT plans to reduce the copper ore production capacity load by over 10% in 2026, and the first - quarter domestic refined copper output growth rate is likely to slow. The supply of copper concentrates and scrap copper is tightening, and the export of unforged copper cathodes and cathode profiles has increased significantly [2][3] Key Trading Points in 2026 - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the market continued to implement the copper long - allocation strategy, accelerating the year - end rise of copper prices. Due to the tightest copper concentrate supply in the first quarter of 2026, copper prices have reached the $12,000 target. After reaching a high of 95,000 - 97,000 yuan, copper prices may adjust, but are likely to rise again around the peak season. The seasonal fluctuations of domestic social inventory around the Spring Festival will verify the supply - demand situation [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper futures market is expected to be supported by the release of demand. The fundamentals may show a stage of slightly reduced supply and gradually increasing demand, with inventory reduction in the industry and positive expectations. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The weekly line of the main Shanghai copper futures contract fluctuated and declined, with a weekly change of - 1.23% and an amplitude of 2.93%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 85,940 yuan/ton [4]. - **International Situation**: Affected by output decline and weak demand, the US manufacturing activity contracted for the eighth consecutive month in October. The ISM manufacturing index dropped by 0.4 to 48.7 [4]. - **Domestic Situation**: Goldman Sachs raised its forecasts for China's export growth rate and real GDP growth rate. It is expected that China's export volume will increase by 5 - 6% annually in the next few years, and the forecast for China's real GDP growth rate in 2025 has been raised from 4.9% to 5% [4]. - **Fundamentals - Raw Materials**: The TC fee for copper concentrates rebounded slightly on a weekly basis but remained in the negative range. The tight supply of raw materials still strongly supported the cost of copper prices [4]. - **Supply**: Due to year - end centralized maintenance and tight supplies of copper ore and scrap copper, the production capacity of smelters was limited, and the supply of refined copper in China might tighten [4]. - **Demand**: The recent decline in copper prices released some demand that was previously suppressed by the rapid increase in copper prices. Some consumer enterprises launched promotional policies to boost downstream new projects and orders, leading to a slight reduction in social inventory [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Contract**: As of November 7, 2025, the basis of the main Shanghai copper futures contract was 75 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 485 yuan/ton. The price of the main contract was 85,940 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,070 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 207,136 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 51,183 lots [9]. - **Spot Price**: As of November 7, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 86,015 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 575 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inter - month Spread**: As of November 7, 2025, the inter - month spread of the main Shanghai copper futures contract was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton [15]. - **Premium**: As of the latest data this week, the average CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 52 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0 US dollars/ton [21]. - **Net Position**: As of the latest data, the net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper futures was - 25,642 lots, an increase of 4,447 lots compared with last week [21]. 3.3 Option Market - As of November 7, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money options of the main Shanghai copper futures contract fell below the 75th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week's data, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper option trading volume was 0.772, a week - on - week increase of 0.0401 [26]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Copper Ore Price and Processing Fee**: As of the latest data this week, the price of copper concentrates in the main domestic mining areas (Jiangxi) was 76,320 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 900 yuan/ton. The processing fee for crude copper in the south was 1,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton [27]. - **Import Volume and Spread**: As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5869 million tons, a decrease of 172,000 tons from August, a decline of 6.23% and a year - on - year increase of 6.24%. As of the latest data this week, the price difference between refined and scrap copper (including tax) was 3,217.45 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 938.06 yuan/ton [34]. - **Global Production and Inventory**: As of August 2025, the global monthly output of copper concentrates was 1.937 million tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from July, a decline of 0.26%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 77.5%, a decrease of 0.4% from July. As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 461,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 57,000 tons [39]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Refined Copper Production**: As of September 2025, the monthly output of refined copper in China was 1.266 million tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons from August, a decline of 2.69% and a year - on - year increase of 11.25%. As of August 2025, the global monthly output of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2.451 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from July, a decline of 0.33%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 81%, a decrease of 0.5% from July [42]. - **Refined Copper Import**: As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 374,075.583 tons, an increase of 66,847.36 tons from August, an increase of 21.76% and a year - on - year increase of 7.44%. As of the latest data this week, the import profit and loss was - 1,608.72 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,053.96 yuan/ton [48][49]. - **Social Inventory**: As of the latest data this week, the total LME inventory decreased by 150 tons compared with last week, the total COMEX inventory increased by 10,759 tons compared with last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 3,684 tons compared with last week. The total social inventory was 202,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,400 tons [52]. 3.6 Downstream and Application - **Copper Products**: As of September 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.232 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from August, an increase of 0.45%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 490,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons from August, an increase of 13.95% and a year - on - year increase of 2.08% [58]. - **Power Grid and Appliance**: As of September 2025, the cumulative investment in power grid and power source construction increased by 9.9% and 0.6% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 5.6%, - 3%, - 2%, - 6.7%, and 3.9% year - on - year respectively [62]. - **Real Estate and Integrated Circuits**: As of September 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment was 6.770571 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% and a month - on - month increase of 12.26%. The cumulative output of integrated circuits was 381.88702 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 8.6% and a month - on - month increase of 11.37% [69]. 3.7 Overall Situation - According to ICSG statistics, as of August 2025, the global refined copper supply was in excess, with a monthly surplus of 47,000 tons. According to WBMS statistics, as of August 2025, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was a surplus of 256,500 tons [74][75].