铜产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2026年01月11日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 1 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铜：微观长期看多，宏观扰动因素增加，价格走势坚挺且波动放大 强弱分析：偏强，价格区间：96000-110000元/吨 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 COMEX和LME价差回落至20美元/吨左右 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2024-01 2024-02 2024-03 2024-04 2024-05 2024-06 2024-07 2024-08 2024-09 2024-10 2024-11 2024-12 2025-01 2025-02 2025-03 2025-04 2025-05 2025-06 2025-07 2025-08 2025 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，12月制造业采购经理指数 （PMI）为50.1%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，升至扩张区间；偏多。 2、基差：现货103700，基差-1620，贴水期货；偏空。 3、库存：1月7日铜库存增3525至146075吨，上期所铜库存较上周增33639吨至145342吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价再次创出历史新高，高位大幅 波动，注意仓位控制 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球政策宽松 和 ...

铜月报 2026/01/04 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） 多因素支撑，高位运行 CONTENTS 目录 04 宏观分析 01 月度要点小结 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 供应：海外铜矿供应存在边际扰动，铜矿供应紧张格局不变，粗铜供应偏宽松。2025年12月国内精炼铜产量回升，预计1月产量小幅减少。 ◆ 需求：2025年12月中国精炼铜表观消费预估维持下降，进入1月下游开工预计持稳。海外制造业景气度分化，需求预期中性稍偏弱。 ◆ 进出口：2025年12月沪铜现货进口亏损先扩后缩，美铜与伦铜价差走弱，但仍维持正价差。 ◆ 库存：2025年12月上期所、COMEX库存增加，LME库存减少，保税区库存持稳，总库存增加，但结构性问题仍存。预估1月中国库存继续累库。 ◆ 小结：进入2026年1月，中国精炼铜产量预估有所下滑，消费仍有支撑，供应仍有过剩倾向。海外需求预期中性稍偏弱，而美国关税预期继 续推动现货偏强。宏观层面，美国金融流动性边际宽松，国内政策温和刺激，叠加海外地缘扰动强化战略资源价值，情绪面仍相对有利。综 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 每日观点 铜: 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，11月中国制造业采购经理指 数（PMI）为49.2%，较上月回升0.2个百分点，仍处于收缩区间但显现边际改善；中性。 2、基差：现货94810，基差-1290，贴水期货； 偏空。 3、库存：12月24日铜库存减1550至157025吨，上期所铜库存较上周增6416吨至95805吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空增；偏空。 6、预期：地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价再次创出历史新高，短期高位 运行 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球政策宽 ...

刻踪 | 信号承诺 铜:快速兑现目标,跨年仍有潜力 点有成金 1、2026年铜精矿复供节奏前低后松,一季度最紧 由于2025年全球铜精矿供损率高、增速低,平衡表预期角度,多数机构认为2026年全球钢精矿供应增速将会回升，初步增 速预期普遍在偏中性的2%水平，增量约45万吨级。全球主力项目新增产能预期较2025年规模更大，复产项目市场主要关注巴拿 马Cobre与印尼Grasberg铜矿的渐进恢复节奏（一季度大概率停滞）。经历2025年，矿端增速静态预测只能提供基本轮廓,动态 调整对行情节奏的指向效率更高。2026年预计全球铜精矿的供应差异将逐季变动，目前认为一季度最紧、二季度市场逐渐关注 新增项目的供应入市，三季度转而跟踪大矿复产动作、四季度新增项目将集中兑现爬产效果,2026年矿的供需局面可能从2025 年的"短缺"逐步转向"紧平衡"。 2、"高铜价+淡消费",关注国内炼厂一季度排产 沪钢涨势已突破9. 5万元,且整体持仓高达64万手,且逢淡季，铜价持续上涨与国内现货供需信号间的分歧扩大。2512合约 交割前,国内现货报价跟涨,沪粤报价多呈升水,但近一周沪粤转贴水报价,本周二上海铜贴水幅度已扩至215元,广东 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper futures market is expected to be supported by the release of demand. The fundamentals may show a stage of slightly reduced supply and gradually increasing demand, with inventory reduction in the industry and positive expectations. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The weekly line of the main Shanghai copper futures contract fluctuated and declined, with a weekly change of - 1.23% and an amplitude of 2.93%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 85,940 yuan/ton [4]. - **International Situation**: Affected by output decline and weak demand, the US manufacturing activity contracted for the eighth consecutive month in October. The ISM manufacturing index dropped by 0.4 to 48.7 [4]. - **Domestic Situation**: Goldman Sachs raised its forecasts for China's export growth rate and real GDP growth rate. It is expected that China's export volume will increase by 5 - 6% annually in the next few years, and the forecast for China's real GDP growth rate in 2025 has been raised from 4.9% to 5% [4]. - **Fundamentals - Raw Materials**: The TC fee for copper concentrates rebounded slightly on a weekly basis but remained in the negative range. The tight supply of raw materials still strongly supported the cost of copper prices [4]. - **Supply**: Due to year - end centralized maintenance and tight supplies of copper ore and scrap copper, the production capacity of smelters was limited, and the supply of refined copper in China might tighten [4]. - **Demand**: The recent decline in copper prices released some demand that was previously suppressed by the rapid increase in copper prices. Some consumer enterprises launched promotional policies to boost downstream new projects and orders, leading to a slight reduction in social inventory [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Contract**: As of November 7, 2025, the basis of the main Shanghai copper futures contract was 75 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 485 yuan/ton. The price of the main contract was 85,940 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,070 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 207,136 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 51,183 lots [9]. - **Spot Price**: As of November 7, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 86,015 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 575 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inter - month Spread**: As of November 7, 2025, the inter - month spread of the main Shanghai copper futures contract was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton [15]. - **Premium**: As of the latest data this week, the average CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 52 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0 US dollars/ton [21]. - **Net Position**: As of the latest data, the net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper futures was - 25,642 lots, an increase of 4,447 lots compared with last week [21]. 3.3 Option Market - As of November 7, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money options of the main Shanghai copper futures contract fell below the 75th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week's data, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper option trading volume was 0.772, a week - on - week increase of 0.0401 [26]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Copper Ore Price and Processing Fee**: As of the latest data this week, the price of copper concentrates in the main domestic mining areas (Jiangxi) was 76,320 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 900 yuan/ton. The processing fee for crude copper in the south was 1,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton [27]. - **Import Volume and Spread**: As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5869 million tons, a decrease of 172,000 tons from August, a decline of 6.23% and a year - on - year increase of 6.24%. As of the latest data this week, the price difference between refined and scrap copper (including tax) was 3,217.45 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 938.06 yuan/ton [34]. - **Global Production and Inventory**: As of August 2025, the global monthly output of copper concentrates was 1.937 million tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from July, a decline of 0.26%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 77.5%, a decrease of 0.4% from July. As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 461,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 57,000 tons [39]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Refined Copper Production**: As of September 2025, the monthly output of refined copper in China was 1.266 million tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons from August, a decline of 2.69% and a year - on - year increase of 11.25%. As of August 2025, the global monthly output of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2.451 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from July, a decline of 0.33%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 81%, a decrease of 0.5% from July [42]. - **Refined Copper Import**: As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 374,075.583 tons, an increase of 66,847.36 tons from August, an increase of 21.76% and a year - on - year increase of 7.44%. As of the latest data this week, the import profit and loss was - 1,608.72 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,053.96 yuan/ton [48][49]. - **Social Inventory**: As of the latest data this week, the total LME inventory decreased by 150 tons compared with last week, the total COMEX inventory increased by 10,759 tons compared with last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 3,684 tons compared with last week. The total social inventory was 202,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,400 tons [52]. 3.6 Downstream and Application - **Copper Products**: As of September 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.232 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from August, an increase of 0.45%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 490,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons from August, an increase of 13.95% and a year - on - year increase of 2.08% [58]. - **Power Grid and Appliance**: As of September 2025, the cumulative investment in power grid and power source construction increased by 9.9% and 0.6% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 5.6%, - 3%, - 2%, - 6.7%, and 3.9% year - on - year respectively [62]. - **Real Estate and Integrated Circuits**: As of September 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment was 6.770571 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% and a month - on - month increase of 12.26%. The cumulative output of integrated circuits was 381.88702 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 8.6% and a month - on - month increase of 11.37% [69]. 3.7 Overall Situation - According to ICSG statistics, as of August 2025, the global refined copper supply was in excess, with a monthly surplus of 47,000 tons. According to WBMS statistics, as of August 2025, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was a surplus of 256,500 tons [74][75].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs warns that the recent surge in copper prices, which has reached $11,200 per ton, may be a temporary "bull trap" driven by sentiment rather than fundamental supply-demand tightness [1][4]. Group 1: Price Movements and Market Dynamics - Copper prices have increased by 13% since mid-September, primarily driven by investor sentiment rather than actual supply-demand constraints [1][5]. - Goldman Sachs identifies two phases of copper price increases in 2023: a 15% rise from January to mid-September supported by solid fundamentals, and a subsequent 13% rise driven by speculative investments [5][6]. - The firm expects copper prices to retreat to the $10,000-$11,000 per ton range by early 2026, maintaining a forecasted average price of $10,500 per ton for that year [4][8]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Global visible copper inventories have increased by 700,000 tons this year, indicating a surplus in the market despite recent supply disruptions [4][8]. - The demand side shows signs of weakness, with China's apparent copper consumption declining by 2% year-on-year in September [8]. - Strong growth in global refined copper production, projected at a 4% increase for the year, is expected to counterbalance supply disruptions from major mines [8]. Group 3: Investor Behavior and Market Sentiment - Despite extreme positioning in LME investor holdings, there remains potential for further inflows into the COMEX market, which could temporarily push copper prices higher [4][7]. - The current sentiment-driven price increase may reverse if global inventories do not significantly decline in the next six months, leading to a reduction in speculative long positions [8].

铜周报：铜价上涨趋势不变，逢低布局多单 研究员： 王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询资格证号：Z0022141 目录 第一章 综合分析及交易策略 2 第二章 内外盘价格走势 4 第三章 铜基本面分析及周度数据跟踪 5 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析及操作策略 n 宏观面 中美两国于2025年10月24日至27日在马来西亚举行经贸磋商，中美领导人保持密切联系，关注apec峰会情况。 n 铜矿 n 库存 n 价差 n 废铜 n 精铜 n 消费 从终端来看，国内需求边际走弱，房地产继续拖累市场，光伏、空调排产出现大幅下滑，后期市场主要支撑来源于两网订单、汽车、储能电池，消费旺季不旺，下游对高价接 受度不足，85000元/吨以下采购有所增加。 GALAXY FUTURES 2 中国9月铜矿砂及其精矿进口量为258.7万吨，1-9月累计进口量为2,263.4万吨，同比增加7.7%。铜矿供应端扰动增加，grasberg、QB二期等产量不及预期。 10月24日SMM进口铜精矿指数（周）报-42.7美元/吨，较上一期的40.97美元/吨减少1.73美元/吨。港口库存增加到67.81万实物吨，较上一期 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 11, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nanhua Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [2] - Analyst: Xiao Yufei [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Affected by the significantly lower-than-expected US non-farm payroll data, the gold price rose sharply and the Shanghai copper price dropped significantly on the night of last Friday, indicating a significant decline in investors' risk preference and demand expectations. On Wednesday night, affected by the low PPI data, investors continued to bet on the Fed's interest rate cut, leading to a rise in copper prices. Fundamentally, on the supply side, multiple research institutions predict that China's refined copper production this month will decline by 4%-5% month-on-month, the first decline in September since 2016. The operating rate of smelters relying on scrap copper or anode copper is expected to decline by 8.3 percentage points to 59.9% month-on-month, further amplifying the effect of supply contraction. On the demand side, the weekly operating rate of copper rods increased by 1.66 percentage points to 69.78% month-on-month. Affected by Document No. 770, the operating situation of recycled copper rods is still unclear. In the short term, copper prices may first decline and then rise. The impact of the weak US employment data on copper prices may continue, and in the short term, copper prices may still seek support around 79,000 yuan per ton. If the non-farm payroll data does not ferment further, combined with the expected month-on-month increase in the operating rate of copper rods and the decline in LME copper inventories, copper prices may find support at the 20-day moving average and still have the potential to rise above 80,000 yuan per ton [4]. Key Points Summary by Section Copper Price Volatility and Risk Management Suggestions - **Copper Price Volatility**: The latest copper price is 79,790 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 7.65%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 4.2% [3]. - **Risk Management Suggestions**: - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for long spot positions, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the call option CU2511C82000 when the volatility is relatively stable [3]. - **Raw Material Management**: When the raw material inventory is low and there are concerns about price increases, for short spot positions, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 78,000 yuan/ton [3]. Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: - The latest price of the Shanghai copper main contract is 79,790 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The Shanghai copper continuous one contract rose 140 yuan to 79,790 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.18%. The Shanghai copper continuous three contract was unchanged at 79,740 yuan/ton. The LME copper 3M contract rose 95.5 US dollars to 10,012 US dollars/ton, a daily increase of 0.96%. The Shanghai-London ratio was 8.11, a decrease of 0.02 or -0.25% [8]. - **Spot Data**: - The prices of Shanghai Non-ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumao, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non-ferrous decreased by 0.18%, 0.13%, 0.11%, and 0.14% respectively. The Shanghai Non-ferrous and Shanghai Wumao spot premiums decreased by 33.33% and 37.5% respectively [14]. Copper Market Supply and Demand Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: - The US and other countries reach an agreement on tariff policies. - The increase in interest rate cut expectations leads to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the valuation of non-ferrous metals. - The lower support level rises [7]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: - Tariff policies fluctuate. - Global demand decreases due to tariff policies. - The adjustment of the US copper tariff policy leads to extremely high COMEX inventories [7]. Copper Inventory Data - **Domestic Warehouse Receipts**: The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts increased by 45 tons to 19,126 tons, a daily increase of 0.24%. The international copper warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4,418 tons [20]. - **LME Inventories**: The total LME copper inventories decreased by 225 tons to 155,050 tons, a daily decrease of 0.14%. The European inventories remained unchanged, while the Asian inventories decreased by 225 tons [22]. - **COMEX Inventories**: The total COMEX copper inventories increased by 7,244 tons to 308,706 tons, a weekly increase of 2.4% [23].

铜月报 2025/07/04 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） 宏观乐观情绪有所弱化 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度要点小结 03 供需分析 02 期现市场 04 宏观分析 01 月度要点小结 月度评估及策略推荐 操作建议：反弹尝试短空。 ◆ 供应：短期铜精矿供需关系维持紧张，但从半年度长单结果看，远期紧张程度稍弱于预期。国内精炼铜产量维持偏高，预计7月产量抬升。 ◆ 需求：6月中国精炼铜表观消费预估延续较高增长，7月消费增速预计降至零附近。海外制造业景气度边际改善，短期需求预期尚可。 ◆ 进出口：6月沪铜进口亏损大幅下探，进料加工出口预计增多、进口预计减少。 ◆ 库存：6月上期所和LME库存减少，COMEX和保税区库存增加。预估7月国内库存相对平稳，海外库存继续增加。 ◆ 小结：进入7月，中国精炼铜产量预计维持高位，下游处于淡季需求偏弱，废铜替代预计边际增加，但出口增多或使得库存较为平稳。海外 需求预期尚可，不过隐性库存可能进一步显性化。宏观层面，美国税收和支出法案有望获得通过，但短期美国就业市场较强 ...