冠通期货研究报告 --沪铜周报 研究咨询部王静 执业资格证号：F0235424/Z0000771 发布时间：2025年11月17日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 行情分析 2 ➢ 宏观方面：当地时间11月12日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署了国会两院通过的一项联邦政府临时拨款法案，正式结束美政府"停摆"。据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为44.4%，维持利率不变的概率为55.6%。美联储到明年1月累计降息25个基点的概率为 48.6%，维持利率不变的概率为34.7%，累计降息50个基点的概率为16.7%。 ➢ 供给方面：11月预计5家冶炼厂检修，涉及粗炼产能150万吨，预计检修影响量为4.80万吨，但10月检修企业逐渐有复产，且铜价上移后，生产端 积极性增加，产量有望上移。据SMM调研了解，再生铜杆企业反映有个别地区或将恢复政府扶持工作，具体如何执行仍需等待下周缴税后。铜价 上移后，废铜供应增多，弥补铜矿端资源不足的缺口。 ➢ 需求方面：铜价重心上移，下游消费受限，传统行业受前期关税及国补政策影响出现需求前置，近期成交氛围偏弱，除电 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，10月份中国制造业生产活动 较上月放缓，制造业采购经理指数(PMI)降至49.0%；中性。 2、基差：现货86875，基差35，升水期货； 中性。 3、库存：11月12日铜库存减0至136250吨，上期所铜库存较上周减1105吨至115035吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：库存回升，地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价高位震荡运行 近期利多利空分析 自然灾害 1、俄乌 ...

研究报告 铜周报 美联储内部意见不统一，沪铜或震荡运行 投资咨询业务资格： 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 电话：0931-8582647 邮箱：451591573@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 10 日星期一 摘要： 【基本面分析】 华龙期货投资咨询部 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色板块研究员：刘江 美联储理事米兰表示，预计美联储将在 12 月降息。并表示， 他想以每步 50 个基点的幅度达到中性利率，许多同事则希望以每 步 25 个基点的幅度调整。CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 62.5%，维持利率不变的概率为 37.5%。全球铜供给和铜需求均处于高位，铜供需基本平衡。铜冶 炼加工费小幅上升，但仍处于历史最低位。9 月份，汽车产量同 比继续增长，空调产量同比出现下降。沪铜库存小幅下降，库存 水平处于近年来适中位置。COMEX 铜库存继续大幅增长。 【后市展望】 铜价或以震荡趋势为主。沪铜套利机会有限。期权合约建议 观望为主。 美联储政策变化超预期，经济数据变化超预期，铜供需变化 超预期。 本报告中所 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply of copper ore remains tight, with the copper concentrate processing fee TC at a deeply negative level. The market generally expects the final result of the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee negotiation to be significantly lower than the 2025 benchmark price of $21.25 per dry ton, and it may approach zero, with individual negotiations possibly resulting in negative values. - In November, the number of smelters scheduled for maintenance decreased to 5, involving a rough smelting capacity of 1.5 million tons and an estimated impact on production of 48,000 tons. Due to the pressure on raw materials being transmitted to the domestic smelting sector, along with negative copper processing fees and falling by - product prices, smelter profits are significantly pressured, and it is expected that the electrolytic copper output in November will decline month - on - month. - Although the previous period was the traditional peak season, high copper prices have to some extent suppressed downstream purchasing willingness. However, the demand side has strong resilience, and terminal demands such as power grids and new energy provide marginal increments. As the issue of supply shortages becomes a consensus, the downstream's acceptance of high copper prices is gradually increasing, and the medium - to - long - term supply - demand fundamentals provide solid support for the price center. - The strategy is to continue to focus on medium - term long positions, with the medium - term reference support range for Shanghai copper 2601 being 83,500 - 84,000 yuan/ton [8][9]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - ly Views and Strategies - **Strategy**: Focus on medium - term long positions, with the medium - term reference support range for Shanghai copper 2601 being 83,500 - 84,000 yuan/ton [8] - **Macro**: In October, China's total goods trade import and export value was 3.7 trillion yuan, a 0.1% increase. Exports were 2.17 trillion yuan, a 0.8% decrease, and imports were 1.53 trillion yuan, a 1.4% increase, with imports having increased for 5 consecutive months. The US government shutdown set a record for the longest duration, and many important economic indicators lacked official data. According to economists' estimates, if the number of non - agricultural employment in October decreased by 60,000, the unemployment rate would rise to 4.5% [9] - **Supply**: Copper ore supply is tight, and the copper concentrate processing fee TC is deeply negative. It is expected that the 2026 long - term processing fee will be much lower than that in 2025. In November, 5 smelters are scheduled for maintenance, affecting 48,000 tons of production. It is expected that November's electrolytic copper output will decline month - on - month [9] - **Demand**: High copper prices have suppressed downstream purchasing, but demand has resilience, and power grids and new energy provide marginal increments. The downstream's acceptance of high prices is increasing [9] - **Inventory**: LME copper futures inventory decreased slightly, while domestic social inventory slowly increased due to the suppression of high - price copper on downstream purchases [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets No specific analysis content provided, only figure names such as "Domestic Futures and Spot Prices", "Shanghai Flat - water Copper Premiums and Discounts", "LME Copper 3 - Month Forward Price", and "Shanghai - London Ratio" are mentioned [14][17] 3.3 Supply and Inventory - **Global Copper Resource Distribution**: Global copper resources are mainly distributed in Chile, Peru, Australia, Russia, and Mexico. Chile has the largest copper reserves, accounting for 21.3%, while China's copper resources are relatively scarce, accounting for only 3% [23] - **Global Copper Capital Expenditure**: Long - term capital expenditure suppresses incremental supply. Old mines have declining grades and rising geopolitical risks, making stable production difficult. Optimistically, the global copper mine production increments in 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 560,000, 1.28 million, and 470,000 tons respectively, with corresponding growth rates of about 2.5%, 5.6%, and 1.9%. Under neutral conditions, the supply growth rates in 2025, 2026, and 2027 are about 2.0%, 3.0%, and 1.0% [24] - **Copper Concentrate**: As of November 7, 2025, the comprehensive TC price of 26% clean copper concentrate was - $42.00 per dry ton, and the comprehensive spot price was $2,859 per dry ton. The zero - order spot processing fee is far below the break - even point. In August 2025, the global copper concentrate output was 1.5328 million tons, and from January to August, it was 12.1509 million tons [29] - **Global Copper Production Distribution**: In 2023, major copper - producing countries included Chile, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Peru, etc. In 2024, the global copper mine production capacity reached 28.63 million tons, a 3.78% increase year - on - year, but the capacity utilization rate decreased from 82.20% in 2020 to 80.1% in 2024 [23][36] - **Copper Concentrate Imports and Inventory**: In September 2025, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.587 million tons, a 0.1% year - on - year increase. From January to September, imports were 22.634 million tons, a 7.7% year - on - year increase. In the 45th week of 2025, the port inventory of imported copper concentrate in China was 498,000 tons [39] - **Global Copper Supply - Demand and China's Smelting Break - even**: The global copper concentrate supply - demand balance is expected to show different situations in different years. China's electrolytic copper production and import data in 2024 and 2025 are also provided [41][46] - **International and Domestic Copper Inventories**: As of November 6, 2025, the LME inventory was 134,000 tons, and the New York market copper inventory reached 369,400 tons. The domestic social inventory was 202,600 tons, and the SHFE inventory fluctuated at a low level [59][60][63] 3.4 Primary Processing and Terminal Markets - **Primary Processing Market**: In September 2025, China's copper product output was 2.232 million tons, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative output was 18.575 million tons, a 9.6% year - on - year increase. In September 2025, China imported 485,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, and from January to September, the cumulative imports were 4.019 million tons, a 1.7% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, the cumulative exports were 1.1428 million tons, a 10.9% year - on - year increase [69][73] - **Terminal Market - Power**: The national power grid project investment was 437.8 billion yuan, a 9.9% year - on - year increase [77] - **Terminal Market - Real Estate**: From January to September 2025, the national real estate development investment was 6.7706 trillion yuan, a 13.9% year - on - year decrease [81] - **Terminal Market - Automobile**: From January to September 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 24.333 million and 24.363 million vehicles respectively, a 13.3% and 12.9% year - on - year increase. New energy vehicle production and sales were 11.243 million and 11.228 million vehicles respectively, a 35.2% and 34.9% year - on - year increase, with a penetration rate of 46.1%. The total copper consumption of new energy vehicles and charging piles is expected to increase from 1.882 million tons in 2025 to 4.847 million tons in 2030 [85][88] - **Terminal Market - Home Appliances**: In September 2025, China's air - conditioner output was 18.095 million units, a 3.0% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, the cumulative output was 216.571 million units, a 4.4% year - on - year increase. In September 2025, China exported 366.563 million home appliances, and from January to September, the cumulative exports were 3.359991 billion units, a 0.8% year - on - year increase [92] - **Terminal Market - New Energy**: As of the end of September, the national solar power generation installed capacity was 1.13 billion kilowatts, a 45.7% year - on - year increase, and the wind power installed capacity was 580 million kilowatts, a 21.3% year - on - year increase [96] - **Global Copper Downstream Consumption and Green Demand Forecast**: The new energy demand for copper is expected to enter a stage of "high base * normal growth rate = high increment". It is estimated that in 2025, the green demand for copper (photovoltaic, wind power, new energy vehicles) will exceed the construction demand [100] 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Global Copper Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It is expected that the global copper supply will still be slightly in surplus in 2025 but will decrease significantly compared to 2024. It is expected to be slightly in short supply in 2026 and the shortage will widen in 2027. The domestic supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the actual consumption growth rate of China's electrolytic copper in 2025 is expected to be 1.91% [107] - **Industrial Chain Structure**: No specific analysis content provided.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The copper market has stopped falling and rebounded. The supply - demand tight balance provides support, and the improvement in US employment data boosts the macro - expectation preference, while the strengthening US dollar suppresses the upside space of copper prices [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened higher and moved up during the day. The US government shutdown has a negative impact on the market. The US October ADP employment report showed an increase of 42,000 jobs, better than expected. The smelting processing fee is negative and stable, indicating a tight copper ore resource. An accident in the Indonesian copper mine will affect global copper supply until next year. There are still five smelters with maintenance plans in November, and copper production is on a downward trend. Higher copper prices may increase scrap copper supply. The rising copper prices have suppressed downstream demand, and the Shanghai copper inventory has increased slightly [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and moved up during the day. Spot: The spot premium in East China is 25 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 15 yuan/ton. On November 5, 2025, the LME official price was 10,639.5 dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 36.5 dollars/ton [4] Supply Side - As of November 4, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 42.06 dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.13 cents/pound [8] Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory is 43,900 tons, an increase of 6,456 tons from the previous period. As of November 3, the Shanghai Free Trade Zone copper inventory is 100,100 tons, a decrease of 6,500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 134,000 tons, an increase of 300 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 363,400 short tons, an increase of 2,005 short tons from the previous period [11]

Group 1 - Copper stocks have experienced significant declines, with Jiangxi Copper Co. down 6.33% to HKD 32.84, Minmetals Resources down 4.99% to HKD 6.85, China Nonferrous Mining down 3.93% to HKD 13.95, and Luoyang Molybdenum down 2.41% to HKD 16.63 [1] - As of October 28, LME copper prices have dropped by 1%, currently at USD 10,918.5 per ton [1] - Everbright Futures suggests that geopolitical easing between Russia and Ukraine, progress in China-US trade negotiations, and the introduction of domestic 14th Five-Year Plan proposals indicate a positive start for the global economy next year [1] Group 2 - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) predicts a potential shortage of refined copper by 2026 due to ongoing impacts from the Indonesian mining incident, despite a tight balance in copper supply and demand [1] - There is a divergence in market expectations, as domestic copper demand growth in the first three quarters has been substantial, leading to potential pressure on demand in the fourth quarter, which may not be as significant as anticipated [1] - Jiangxi Copper Co. is set to hold a board meeting today to consider and approve the announcement regarding its third-quarter performance for the nine months ending September 30, 2025 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply side of copper has disturbances, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. In September, manufacturing production accelerated, and the PMI rose to 49.8%, with the business climate continuing to improve. The basis shows a discount to futures, and the inventory situation is complex. The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average trending upward, but the main position has turned from long to short. Overall, with inventory rising and geopolitical disturbances, the copper price is expected to remain strong [2]. - There are both global policy easing and trade - war escalation factors affecting the copper market [3]. - In 2024, the copper market will have a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoint - Fundamental analysis of copper shows a neutral situation as supply has disturbances, and the manufacturing PMI has improved [2]. - The basis is - 180, indicating a neutral situation with the spot price at 88190 and a discount to futures [2]. - On October 27, copper inventory decreased by 375 to 135975 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5448 tons to 104792 tons compared to last week, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is trending upward, showing a bullish sign [2]. - The main net position is short after changing from long, indicating a bearish sign [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The factors affecting the copper market include global policy easing and trade - war escalation [3]. Inventory - The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [16]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus in the copper market, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [20]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024 [22].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - Last week, Shanghai copper prices rose significantly, with the main contract of Shanghai copper increasing by 3.95% to close at 87,720 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors, US tariff issues, force majeure in Indonesian copper mines, and the sharp rise in precious metals stimulated the increase in copper prices. Domestically, it is the consumption peak season, but the downstream consumption willingness is average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading is average, mainly for rigid - demand transactions. LME copper inventory decreased slightly last week, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5,448 tons to 104,792 tons compared with the previous week. The copper market will be in a tight - balance situation in 2024 and an oversupply situation in 2025 [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs 行情回顾 - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper rose 3.95% to 87,720 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors, US tariff issues, force majeure in Indonesian copper mines, and the sharp rise in precious metals stimulated the increase in copper prices. Domestically, downstream consumption willingness is average, and domestic spot trading is mainly for rigid - demand. LME copper inventory decreased slightly, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5,448 tons to 104,792 tons compared with the previous week [4]. 基本面（库存结构） - **PMI**: No specific content is provided [9]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The copper market will be in a tight - balance situation in 2024 and an oversupply situation in 2025. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024 [11][14]. - **Inventory**: Exchange inventory is in a de - stocking state, and bonded - area inventory remains at a low level [15][19]. 市场结构 - **Processing Fee**: The processing fee is at a low level [22]. - **CFTC Position**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions are flowing out [24]. - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No specific content is provided [27]. - **Import Profit**: No specific content is provided [30]. - **Warehouse Receipt**: No specific content is provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report indicates that the macro - sentiment is warm. Copper valuation is slightly bearish, with the global manufacturing PMI showing a downward trend, copper concentrate processing fees providing bullish drivers, and the US dollar index being neutral. Given the expected tight supply of copper raw materials and low inventories in LME and domestic markets, copper prices are expected to remain strong. This week, the reference range for the main SHFE copper contract is 85,500 - 90,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is 10,500 - 11,300 US dollars/ton [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: Spot processing fees for copper concentrates and blister copper have declined, and the supply of cold materials has tightened marginally. Freeport's Q3 copper production was 912 million pounds, lower than 1.1 billion pounds in the same period last year, and sales were 977 million pounds, slightly below the target [11]. - Inventory: The total inventory of the three major exchanges decreased by 0.4 tons week - on - week. SHFE inventory decreased by 0.5 to 105,000 tons, LME inventory decreased by 0.1 to 136,000 tons, COMEX inventory increased by 0.2 to 317,000 tons, and Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 10,000 tons. The domestic Shanghai spot copper premium was 10 yuan/ton over futures, and the LME Cash/3M was at a discount of 26 US dollars/ton [11]. - Import and Export: Domestic electrolytic copper spot imports remained at a loss, and the Yangshan copper premium stabilized. In September 2025, China's refined copper imports were 374,000 tons, and net imports were 348,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 77,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. The cumulative imports from January to September were 2.53 million tons, and net imports were 2.418 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5% [11]. - Demand: The operating rate of domestic downstream refined copper rod enterprises declined. With the strengthening of the copper price, downstream purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread widened, and the substitution advantage of scrap copper increased, but the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises only slightly increased [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Prices: Copper prices fluctuated strongly. The main SHFE copper contract rose 3.95% week - on - week, and LME copper rose 3.21% to 10,947 US dollars/ton [20]. - Spot Prices: The report provides price data for various copper products such as electrolytic copper, copper wires, and copper rods at different times [22]. - Premiums and Discounts: Domestic copper prices strengthened. On Friday, the spot copper in East China had a premium of 10 yuan/ton over futures. LME inventory decreased, the proportion of cancelled warrants increased, and the Cash/3M remained at a discount of 26 US dollars/ton. Last week, domestic electrolytic copper spot imports remained at a loss, and the Yangshan copper premium (bill of lading) rebounded [25]. 3. Profit and Inventory - Smelting Profit: The spot rough smelting fee TC for imported copper concentrates declined to - 42.7 US dollars/ton. The price of sulfuric acid in East China rebounded, which still had a positive impact on copper smelting revenue [33]. - Import - Export Ratio: No specific analysis of the import - export ratio was provided in the summary part. - Import - Export Profit and Loss: The loss of copper spot imports narrowed in a fluctuating manner [38]. - Inventory: The total inventory of the three major exchanges was 557,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.4 tons. SHFE inventory decreased by 0.5 to 105,000 tons, LME inventory decreased by 0.1 to 136,000 tons, COMEX inventory increased by 0.2 to 317,000 tons. Shanghai bonded area inventory was 110,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons. The decrease in SHFE inventory came from Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Guangdong, and the number of copper warrants decreased by 7,778 to 35,071 tons. LME inventory decreased, with the decrease coming from Asian and European warehouses, and the proportion of cancelled warrants increased [41][44][47]. 4. Supply Side - Electrolytic Copper Monthly Output: According to SMM research, China's refined copper output in September 2025 decreased month - on - month, and it is expected to continue to decline in October. According to NBS data, the domestic refined copper output in September was 1.266 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.1%, and the cumulative output from January to September was 11.125 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.0% [52]. - Import and Export: In August 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.587 million tons, a month - on - month decrease, and the cumulative imports from January to September were 22.634 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. In September, imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 490,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 65,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2%, with cumulative imports from January to September at 4.019 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. Anode copper imports in September were 50,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 32.8%, with cumulative imports from January to September at 528,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.6%. In September, refined copper imports were 374,000 tons, net imports were 348,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 77,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.2%, with cumulative imports from January to September at 2.53 million tons, and net imports at 2.418 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. In September, the import proportion from Zambia, Chile, Peru, etc. increased, while that from Congo (Kinshasa), the Netherlands, etc. decreased. In August, refined copper exports were 26,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,000 tons, and domestic spot copper feed - processing exports remained profitable. In September, recycled copper imports were 184,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.7% and a year - on - year increase of 14.8%, with cumulative imports from January to September at 1.699 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% [55][58][61][64][67][70]. 5. Demand Side - Consumption Structure: China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs both rebounded in September, and the manufacturing prosperity continued to improve. The manufacturing prosperity of major overseas economies weakened marginally, with the manufacturing PMIs of the Eurozone, the UK, Japan, and India all declining [77]. - Downstream Industry Output: In September, the year - on - year output growth was seen in the automotive, color TV, AC motor, and power generation equipment industries, while the output of refrigerators, air conditioners, and freezers declined year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative output of power generation equipment, air conditioners, washing machines, refrigerators, and AC motors increased year - on - year, while the cumulative output of color TVs and freezers decreased [80]. - Real Estate Data: From January to September, domestic real estate data remained weak, with new construction, construction, sales, and completion all declining year - on - year, and the decline in construction and completion narrowing compared to the first eight months. The national real estate climate index continued to decline in September [83]. - Downstream Enterprise Operating Rates: In September, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises strengthened but is expected to weaken in October; the operating rate of scrap copper rod enterprises weakened and is expected to continue to decline in October. The operating rate of enameled wire enterprises increased in September but is expected to decline in October; the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises was relatively stable in September and is expected to remain stable in October. The operating rate of copper tube enterprises rebounded in September but is expected to decline in October; the operating rate of brass rod enterprises rebounded in September and is expected to decline slightly in October. The operating rate of copper plate and strip enterprises slightly increased in September but is expected to decline in October; the operating rate of copper foil enterprises improved in September and is expected to continue to improve in October [86][89][92][95]. 6. Capital Side - SHFE Copper Positions: The total SHFE copper positions increased by 106,072 to 1,167,224 lots (bilateral), among which the positions of the near - month 2511 contract were 208,184 lots (bilateral) [102]. - Foreign Fund Positions: As of September 23, CFTC funds maintained a net long position, with a net long ratio of 12.3%; the proportion of long positions of LME investment funds increased (as of October 17) [105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the Shanghai copper market showed a pattern of rising first and then falling. The main contract of Shanghai copper decreased by 1.77% and closed at 84,390 yuan per ton. Geopolitical factors, US tariff issues, and global uncertainties affected copper prices. In addition, force majeure in Indonesian copper mines and a significant increase in precious metals prices stimulated a sharp rise in copper prices. Domestically, consumption is entering the peak season, but the downstream consumption willingness is currently average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading is average, mainly driven by rigid demand. In terms of inventory, the LME copper inventory was 137,225 tons, slightly decreasing from the previous week, while the SHFE copper inventory increased by 550 tons to 110,240 tons compared to the previous week [4]. - The copper market will be in a tight balance in 2024 and face an oversupply situation in 2025 [11]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper decreased by 1.77% and closed at 84,390 yuan per ton. Geopolitical factors, US tariff issues, and global uncertainties affected copper prices. Force majeure in Indonesian copper mines and a significant increase in precious metals prices stimulated a sharp rise in copper prices. Domestically, consumption is entering the peak season, but the downstream consumption willingness is currently average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading is average, mainly driven by rigid demand. The LME copper inventory was 137,225 tons, slightly decreasing from the previous week, while the SHFE copper inventory increased by 550 tons to 110,240 tons compared to the previous week [4]. 3.2 Fundamentals 3.2.1 PMI - No specific information provided 3.2.2 Supply - Demand Balance - The copper market will be in a tight balance in 2024 and face an oversupply situation in 2025. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024 [11][14]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Exchange inventory is in a destocking phase. Bonded area inventory remains at a low level [15][18]. 3.3 Market Structure 3.3.1 Processing Fees - Processing fees are at a low level [21]. 3.3.2 CFTC Positions - There is an outflow of non - commercial net long positions in CFTC [23]. 3.3.3 Spot - Futures Price Difference - No specific information provided 3.3.4 Import Profits - No specific information provided 3.3.5 Warehouse Receipts - No specific information provided