Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The copper price may show a fluctuating downward trend. The reference range for the main contract of Shanghai copper this week is 92,000 - 97,500 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME copper 3M is 11,600 - 12,500 US dollars/ton [14]. - The supply of copper concentrates remains tight, and the short - term inventory is expected to continue to decline, which will support the copper price [14]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The spot processing fee of copper concentrates has declined to the lowest level in history, and the processing fee of blister copper has continued to decline. The supply of cold materials has tightened marginally. Chile's National Copper Corporation produced 1.33 million tons of copper in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%, and the expected output in 2026 is 1.33 - 1.36 million tons. Luoyang Molybdenum produced 741,000 tons of copper in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 14.0%, and the output guidance for 2026 is 760,000 - 820,000 tons [11]. - **Demand**: The copper price has rebounded in a fluctuating manner, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream buyers has weakened, the trading volume has declined but still remains at a relatively high level, and the operating rate of copper processing enterprises has increased in a fluctuating manner. The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference has rebounded, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises has decreased again [12]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 1.254 million tons, a decrease of 33,000 tons compared with the previous week. Among them, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased by 52,000 tons to 359,000 tons, the LME inventory has increased by 18,000 tons to 360,000 tons, and the COMEX inventory has increased by 1,000 tons to 535,000 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Area has decreased by 15,000 tons. In the spot market, on Friday, the spot price of copper in East China was at a discount of 95 yuan/ton to the futures price; the Cash/3M discount in the LME market has narrowed to 70.9 US dollars/ton [13]. - **Import and Export**: The spot import profit of domestic electrolytic copper has declined, and the Yangshan copper premium has increased. From January to February, China's refined copper imports were 251,000 tons and 204,000 tons respectively, with a cumulative import volume of 454,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.6%; the net import volumes in January and February were 157,000 tons and 125,000 tons respectively, with a cumulative net import volume of 283,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.4% [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: The copper price has rebounded. The main contract of Shanghai copper has risen by 1.26% this week (as of Friday's close), and LME copper has risen by 2.59% to 12,141 US dollars/ton [25]. - **Spot Price**: The report provides the spot prices of electrolytic copper, copper products, and recycled copper at different times from February 13, 2026, to March 27, 2026, and the price differences between them [27]. - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic copper price has rebounded, and the basis has weakened. On Friday, the copper spot in East China was at a discount of 95 yuan/ton to the futures price; the LME inventory has increased, the proportion of cancelled warrants has increased, and the Cash/3M discount has narrowed, reporting a discount of 70.9 US dollars/ton on Friday. The spot import profit of domestic electrolytic copper has declined, and the Yangshan copper premium has increased [30]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The spot rough smelting fee TC of imported copper concentrates has reached a new low, reporting - 68.9 US dollars/ton. The price of sulfuric acid in East China has strengthened, which still makes a positive contribution to copper smelting revenue [38]. - **Import - Export Ratio**: The offshore RMB has depreciated slightly, and the spot Shanghai - London ratio of copper has risen and then fallen [41]. - **Import - Export Profit and Loss**: The spot import profit of copper has risen and then fallen [44]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 1.254 million tons, a decrease of 33,000 tons compared with the previous week. The inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Area is 63,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons compared with the previous week. The decrease in the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange mainly comes from Shanghai, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Zhejiang; the number of copper warrants has decreased by 37,039 to 237,076 tons. The LME inventory has increased, and the increase comes from warehouses in Asia, North America, and Europe; the proportion of cancelled warrants has increased [47][50][53]. 4. Supply Side - **Electrolytic Copper Monthly Output**: According to SMM research data, China's refined copper output in February 2026 decreased by about 37,000 tons month - on - month, and it is expected that the output in March will rebound significantly and be at a relatively high level in history. According to national statistics data, the refined copper output in December 2025 was 1.326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%; the annual cumulative output was 14.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [58]. - **Import and Export Situation**: From January to February 2026, China's copper ore imports were 2.624 million tons and 2.31 million tons respectively, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% and 5.9% respectively, with a cumulative import volume of 4.934 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products in January and February were 384,000 tons and 316,000 tons respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4% and 24.8% respectively, with a cumulative import volume of 700,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. The imports of anode copper in January and February were 65,000 tons and 57,000 tons respectively, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% and 3.8% respectively, with a cumulative import volume of 750,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The imports of refined copper in January and February were 251,000 tons and 204,000 tons respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 15.6% and 33.3% respectively, with a cumulative import volume of 454,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.6%; the net import volumes in January and February were 157,000 tons and 125,000 tons respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 43.8% and 55.0% respectively, with a cumulative net import volume of 283,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.4%. The exports of refined copper in January and February were 93,000 tons and 78,000 tons respectively. The imports of recycled copper in January and February were 232,000 tons and 168,000 tons respectively, a year - on - year increase of 22.8% and a decrease of 13.1% respectively, with a cumulative import volume of 400,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% [61][64][67][73][76]. 5. Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: Globally, the consumption of electrolytic copper is mainly in the power (46%), household appliances (15%), transportation (11%), construction (9%), mechanical electronics (9%), and other (10%) sectors. In China, the consumption is mainly in the construction (26%), equipment (23%), industry (12%), transportation (13%), infrastructure (17%), and other (9%) sectors [80]. - **PMI**: In February, China's official manufacturing PMI declined month - on - month, while the RatingDog comprehensive PMI increased significantly, showing a differentiation in manufacturing prosperity. The manufacturing prosperity of major overseas economies is also differentiated, with the prosperity of Japan, the Eurozone, and India improving, and that of the United States and the United Kingdom weakening [83]. - **Downstream Industry Output Data**: Among the copper downstream industries, the cumulative output from January to February 2026 increased year - on - year in cold storage, power generation equipment, refrigerators, color TVs, and air conditioners, while it decreased in automobiles, AC motors, and washing machines [86]. - **Real Estate Data**: From January to February 2026, the domestic real estate data was weak, with new construction, construction, sales, and completion all declining year - on - year, and completion and new construction showing relatively weak performance. The National Real Estate Climate Index declined in December 2025 [89]. - **Downstream Enterprise Operating Rate**: In February, the operating rate of China's refined copper rod enterprises weakened seasonally and is expected to rebound significantly in March; the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises remained at a low level and is expected to rebound in March. The operating rate of enameled wire enterprises weakened in February and is expected to recover in March, approaching the level of the same period last year; the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises declined in February and is expected to rebound in March. The operating rate of copper tube enterprises weakened in February and is expected to rebound seasonally in March but be lower than the level of the same period last year; the operating rate of brass rod enterprises declined in February and is expected to rebound in March. The operating rate of copper strip enterprises weakened in February and is expected to rebound in March, higher than the level of the same period last year; the operating rate of copper foil enterprises declined slightly in February and is expected to increase in March, with the operating situation significantly better than that of the same period last year. The weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises continued to increase, significantly higher than the level of the same period last year; the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises decreased and remained at a relatively low level. The weekly operating rate of wire and cable enterprises increased slightly; the operating rate of copper strip enterprises increased [92][96][99][102][105][108]. - **Refined - Scrap Price Difference**: The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference has rebounded, reporting 796 yuan/ton on Friday [113]. 6. Capital Side - **Shanghai Copper Position**: The total position of Shanghai copper has decreased by 79,960 to 1,068,508 lots (bilateral), among which the position of the near - month 2604 contract is 163,454 lots (bilateral) [118]. - **Foreign Fund Position**: As of March 24, the CFTC fund position remained net long, and the net long ratio has declined to 15.5%; the proportion of long positions of LME investment funds has declined (as of March 20) [121].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price lacked upward momentum under the triple negative factors of "high inventory, weak demand, and delivery pressure" this week, and it was difficult to hold the 100,000 RMB mark [2][57]. - Cathode copper and LME copper are currently in the early stage of an uptrend and at a cyclical low [2][9]. - The risk - return ratio of going long on SHFE copper is 1.65% (moderate risk - return ratio, moderate participation), and that of LME copper is 1.77% (moderate risk - return ratio, moderate participation) [2][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations - **Core Contradictions** - The copper price lacked upward drivers under the triple negative factors of "high inventory, weak demand, and delivery pressure", and the risk - return ratio of going long unilaterally increased significantly [2]. - The decline in the spot copper price narrowed, the discount range narrowed, the spot smelting income of refined copper decreased week - on - week, and smelting enterprises were more willing to purchase and sell. The Yangshan copper premium declined, while the import profit of copper and recycled copper increased significantly. Due to the low operating rate of recycled copper, production was limited, and the ticket points increased significantly, supporting the high price of scrap copper, and the refined - scrap price difference continued to decline [2]. - **Strategy Recommendations** - For industrial customers, pay attention to the restocking opportunities when the price drops to the 98,000 - 99,000 RMB range again [3][57]. - For speculative customers, short - term short positions should pay attention to the resistance around 100,000 RMB on the technical side and the support strength of the above - mentioned range. In addition to futures, options can also be considered, such as buying out - of - the - money put options and constructing bear spreads [3][57]. 3.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning** - The latest price quantile of SHFE copper is 98.97%, with an annualized volatility of 15.22% in the past week, lower than last week and the historical volatility of 18.01%. The latest price quantile of LME copper is 98.84%, with an annualized volatility of 14.78% in the past week, the same as last week and lower than the historical volatility of 20.28% [9]. - **Trend Judgment** - Cathode copper is in the early stage of an uptrend and at a cyclical low; LME copper is also in the early stage of an uptrend and at a cyclical low [9]. - **Price Range** - The price range of SHFE copper is [98,926, 104,471], with a price center of 101,699; the price range of LME copper is [12,557, 13,401], with a price center of 12,979 [9]. - **Strategy Recommendations** - The risk - return ratio of going long on SHFE copper is 1.65% (moderate risk - return ratio, moderate participation), and that of LME copper is 1.77% (moderate risk - return ratio, moderate participation) [9]. - **Basis (Premium/Discount), Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations** - Basis (Premium/Discount) Strategy: Narrow. On March 13, the basis was 85 RMB/ton, at the 53.8% historical quantile, within the normal 40% historical range. The probability of expansion in the next 1 - 2 weeks is 17.1%, with a downward direction [11]. - Calendar Spread: The main fluctuation range of the spread between the first - and third - month contracts is [-100, 250]. The current spread is -270. The probability of expansion and narrowing is both 50%, neutral [13]. - Cross - Border Spread Strategy: Pay attention to cross - market reverse arbitrage. As of March 13, the SHFE - LME ratio was 7.78, at the 35.5% historical quantile. Key indicators such as the US dollar index, LME copper inventory, and fund net long positions are worthy of attention [14]. 3.3 Enterprise Hedging Strategy Recommendations - For enterprises with low raw material inventory and restocking needs after the Spring Festival, considering the expected increase in price volatility in the future, futures can be used to build positions in batches near the support levels. The first support level is 98,921 RMB, the second is 97,832 RMB, and the third is 95,650 RMB. Off - exchange options such as buying up - and - out accumulator options can also be considered in the 98,000 - 102,000 RMB range [18]. 3.4 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Event Interpretations - **This Week's Important Information** - **Positive Information**: The IEA indicated that aluminum is a viable alternative to copper in the power industry to reduce raw material costs. The IEA predicted that in the STEPS scenario, global grid copper demand will increase from 5 million tons in 2020 to 7.5 million tons in 2040, and aluminum demand will increase from 9 million tons to 12.8 million tons; in the SDS scenario, copper demand will approach 10 million tons, and aluminum demand will rise to 16 million tons in 2040 [18]. - **Negative Information**: Workers at Glencore's Australian copper refinery threatened to strike due to a salary dispute. The refinery in Queensland, Australia, produces up to 300,000 tons of refined copper annually [19]. - **Macroeconomic Information**: In January - February 2026, China's exports reached 656.58 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 21.8%, and imports increased by 19.8%, with a trade surplus of 213.62 billion US dollars. The export of high - tech products increased, strengthening the marginal demand for metals such as copper [20]. - **Industry Chain Dynamics**: In February 2026, the operating rate of the domestic copper cable industry decreased by 14.29 percentage points month - on - month to 55.81%, but increased by 9.06 percentage points year - on - year. The production of copper tubes and copper rods decreased in February due to the Spring Festival holiday [19][21][22]. - **Other Information**: Lundin Mining agreed to pay 215 million US dollars to increase its stake in the Caserones copper mine in Chile and acquire part of the Los Helados copper - gold project. Zambia aims to increase copper production to 3 million tons by 2031. The LME is consulting on adjusting the "evergreen" rent agreement. Shipping giant Hapag - Lloyd has tightened requirements for plastic and metal scrap transportation to Southeast Asia [23][24]. - **Next Week's Key Event Interpretations** - Next week, important macro - economic indicators such as China's fixed - asset investment, social consumer goods retail sales, and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be released [26]. 3.5 Disk Price - Volume and Capital Interpretations - **Domestic Market Interpretation** - This week, the market's perception of the US - Israel - Iran conflict changed. Funds increased investment in agricultural products and oil - chemical products and reduced investment in metals and precious metals. The copper price continued to show a shrinking volume consolidation. The trading volume of the SHFE copper weighted index decreased by 27.13% week - on - week, and the持仓 volume decreased by 0.07% week - on - week. The speculation degree continued to fluctuate below the median of 50 [29]. - The price of the SHFE copper main contract fluctuated around 100,742 RMB, with a fluctuation range of [98,370, 101,980]. It closed at 99,730 RMB/ton on Friday night, with a decrease of 8,946 lots in positions during the week, a weekly increase of 0.43%, and an amplitude of 3.61% [29]. - **Foreign Market Interpretation** - This week, the decline of LME copper and Comex copper widened, and the amplitude was relatively large. The LME copper price mainly fluctuated in the range of [12,583, 13,174] US dollars/ton, and finally closed at 12,735 US dollars/ton, with a position difference of 3,194 lots during the week, a week - on - week decline of 1.42%, and an amplitude of 4.57%. The Comex copper price mainly fluctuated in the range of [563.95, 596.2] US cents/pound, and finally closed at 567.5 US cents/pound, with a position difference of -2,358 lots during the week, a week - on - week decline of 3.82%, and an amplitude of 5.57% [31]. 3.6 Spot Price and Profit Analysis - **Spot Price and Smelting Profit** - This week, the decline in the spot copper price narrowed, the discount range narrowed, the spot smelting income of refined copper decreased week - on - week, and smelting enterprises were more willing to purchase and sell. The Yangshan copper premium declined, while the import profit of copper and recycled copper increased significantly. Due to the low operating rate of recycled copper, production was limited, and the ticket points increased significantly, supporting the high price of scrap copper, and the refined - scrap price difference continued to decline. The purchasing and sales mentality of copper processing enterprises was weaker than last week [36]. - The activity of the copper concentrate spot market increased, leading to a continuous decline in processing fees. For example, the refined copper processing fees for the second and third quarters in transactions between mines and smelters were -50 and -60 US dollars/ton [36]. - The weekly operating rates of refined copper rod enterprises, recycled copper rod enterprises, brass rod enterprises, wire and cable enterprises, and enameled wire enterprises continued to rise this week [36]. - **Import Profit and Import Volume** - This week, the import profit of copper and recycled copper continued to rise week - on - week, the SHFE - LME ratio on the futures disk increased, and the copper import window opened. The LC spread was inverted, the Yangshan copper premium declined, and most of the arriving bills of lading were cleared directly, resulting in a decline in bonded area inventory [40]. - As of March 12, the inventory of electrolytic copper in the Shanghai bonded area was 55,100 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons compared with March 5; the inventory in the Guangdong bonded area was 9,100 tons, a decrease of 500 tons compared with March 5 [40]. - In February 2026, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 2.31 million tons; from January to February, the cumulative imports were 4.934 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. In February, the imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 316,000 tons; from January to February, the cumulative imports were 700,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. With the opening of import profit, the import volume in March is likely to increase month - on - month [40]. - **Inventory Analysis** - This week, affected by factors such as the decline in the Yangshan Port premium, the narrowing of the calendar spread on the disk, and the closure of the smelting enterprises' export window, the bonded area port inventory declined, the domestic copper social inventory remained at a high level, and the exchange inventory declined from a high level. The LC spread was inverted, and the LME copper warehouses showed obvious inventory accumulation. The global visible copper inventory reached 1.33 million tons. Specifically, the Comex copper inventory was 597,000 tons, the Chinese copper inventory was 430,000 tons, and the LME copper inventory was 310,000 tons [45]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Deduction and Price Expectations - **Supply Deduction** - From January to February 2026, 23 sample enterprises produced a total of 2.1567 million tons of cathode copper, a year - on - year increase of 13.30%. It is expected that the cathode copper production in March will increase by 2.07 percentage points month - on - month to 1.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.97% [51][52]. - **Demand Expectations** - After the Spring Festival, the operating rates of most copper processing enterprises increased significantly. The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod, brass rod, and copper cable enterprises have returned to the pre - festival level. Some enterprises' finished product inventories have decreased significantly, and raw material inventories have increased slightly. The raw material restocking cycle has not ended. The restocking rhythm depends on price factors and terminal orders, as well as the marginal demand changes in traditional industries such as construction and home appliances [54]. - **Price Expectations** - The copper price lacked upward drivers under the triple negative factors of "high inventory, weak demand, and delivery pressure", and it was difficult to hold the 100,000 RMB mark. Technically, the copper futures disk showed a shrinking volume consolidation, and the probability of a downward break increased. The first support level is the 98,000 - 99,000 RMB range. If the conflict escalates, oil prices continue to rise, and the US dollar remains high, the first support level may be broken, and the price may test 96,000 RMB. Otherwise, the first support level is a good price for long - term investors to build positions [57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is affected by geopolitical factors, with supply and demand showing marginal improvement. The short - term copper price is expected to fluctuate. The reference range for the main contract of Shanghai copper is 98,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton, and that for LME copper 3M is 12,400 - 13,500 US dollars/ton [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The spot processing fee of copper concentrate is at a historical low, and the processing fee of blister copper has declined month - on - month. The cold material supply has tightened marginally. The Bingham Canyon Mine in the US owned by Rio Tinto suspended operations after an accident, with an annual output of about 125,000 tons in 2025 [11]. - **Demand**: Copper prices have moved down in a volatile manner. In the first half of the week, downstream buyers were active, but sentiment cooled as the market atmosphere weakened. The operating rate of copper processing enterprises continued to rise, approaching the same - period level of previous years. The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference has narrowed, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod production has rebounded from a low level [12]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 22,000 tons to 1.283 million tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 8,000 tons to 433,000 tons, the LME inventory increased by 18,000 tons to 312,000 tons, and the COMEX inventory decreased by 4,000 tons to 537,000 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Area increased by 5,000 tons. The spot premium in the East China region on Friday was 85 yuan/ton over the futures price, and the LME Cash/3M discount widened to 102.7 US dollars/ton [13]. - **Import and Export**: The spot import of domestic electrolytic copper has changed from a loss to a small profit, and the Yangshan copper premium has rebounded. From January to February 2026, the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products in China was 384,000 tons and 316,000 tons respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4% and 24.8% respectively, and the cumulative import volume was 700,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1% [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: Copper prices have moved down in a volatile manner. The main contract of Shanghai copper fell 0.73% week - on - week (as of Friday's close), and LME copper fell 1.04% to 12,735 US dollars/ton [22]. - **Spot Price**: The report provides the spot prices of electrolytic copper, copper products, and recycled copper at different times [24]. - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic copper price has moved down in a volatile manner, and the basis has rebounded. The spot copper in the East China region on Friday had a premium of 85 yuan/ton over the futures price. The LME inventory increased, the proportion of cancelled warrants increased, and the Cash/3M discount widened to 102.7 US dollars/ton. The spot import of domestic electrolytic copper has changed from a loss to a small profit, and the Yangshan copper premium has rebounded [27]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The spot rough - smelting fee TC of imported copper concentrate has reached a new low, at - 60.4 US dollars/ton. The sulfuric acid price in East China has strengthened, still contributing positively to copper smelting revenue [35]. - **Import - Export Ratio**: The offshore RMB has depreciated, and the spot Shanghai - LME ratio of copper has increased [38]. - **Import - Export Profit and Loss**: The spot import of copper has changed from a loss to a small profit [41]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 22,000 tons to 1.283 million tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Area was 90,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons compared to before the holiday. The increase in the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory mainly came from Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, while the inventory in Guangdong decreased month - on - month. The number of copper warrants decreased by 4,024 to 315,063 tons. The LME inventory increased, with the increase coming from Asian and North American warehouses, and the European inventory decreased. The proportion of cancelled warrants increased slightly [44][47][50]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Electrolytic Copper Monthly Output**: According to SMM research data, China's refined copper output in February 2026 decreased by about 37,000 tons month - on - month, and it is expected to rebound significantly in March, being at a relatively high historical level. According to National Bureau of Statistics data, the refined copper output in December 2025 was 1.326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%; the cumulative annual output was 14.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [55]. - **Import and Export Situation**: From January to February 2026, China's copper ore import volume was 2.624 million tons and 2.31 million tons respectively, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% and 5.9% respectively, and the cumulative import volume was 4.934 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. From January to February 2026, the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products in China was 384,000 tons and 316,000 tons respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4% and 24.8% respectively, and the cumulative import volume was 700,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. In December 2025, China imported 61,000 tons of anode copper, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 23.5%, and the cumulative import volume from January to December was 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.6%. In December 2025, China's refined copper import volume was 298,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.0%, and the cumulative import volume from January to December was 3.828 million tons, with a net import volume of 3.039 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2%. In December 2025, China exported 96,000 tons of refined copper, a month - on - month decrease of 47,000 tons. The domestic spot copper feed - processing export remained profitable. In December 2025, China's recycled copper import volume was 239,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.83% and a year - on - year increase of 9.9%, and the cumulative import volume from January to December was 2.342 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [58][61][64][70][73]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: Globally, the consumption structure of electrolytic copper is 46% for power, 15% for home appliances, 11% for transportation, 9% for construction, 9% for mechanical electronics, and 10% for others. In China, it is 26% for construction, 23% for equipment, 12% for industry, 13% for transportation, 17% for infrastructure, and 9% for others [77]. - **PMI**: In February, China's official manufacturing PMI declined month - on - month, while the RatingDog comprehensive PMI increased significantly, showing a differentiated performance in manufacturing prosperity. The manufacturing prosperity of major overseas economies was also differentiated, with improvement in Japan, the Eurozone, and India, and weakening in the US and the UK [80]. - **Downstream Industry Output Data**: In December 2025, the output of cold storage, household refrigerators, and power generation equipment in the copper downstream industries increased year - on - year, while that of automobiles, washing machines, air conditioners, color TVs, and AC motors decreased. From January to December, the cumulative output of automobiles, air conditioners, household washing machines, household refrigerators, and power generation equipment increased year - on - year, while that of cold storage, color TVs, and AC motors decreased [83]. - **Real Estate Data**: In December 2025, the domestic real estate data continued to be weak, with new construction, construction, sales, and completion all decreasing year - on - year, and the decline rate slowed down. The National Real Estate Climate Index continued to decline in December [85]. - **Downstream Enterprise Operating Rate**: In February, the operating rate of China's refined copper rod enterprises weakened seasonally and is expected to rebound significantly in March; the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises remained at a low level and is expected to rebound in March. The operating rate of enameled wire enterprises weakened in February and is expected to recover in March, approaching the same - period level of last year; the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises declined in February and is expected to rebound in March. The operating rate of copper tube enterprises weakened in February and is expected to rebound seasonally in March, but lower than the same - period level of last year; the operating rate of brass rod enterprises declined in February and is expected to rebound in March. The operating rate of copper strip enterprises weakened in February and is expected to rebound in March, higher than the same - period level of last year; the operating rate of copper foil enterprises declined slightly in February and is expected to increase in March, with a significantly better operating situation than the same - period level of last year. The weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production continued to rise; the operating rate of recycled copper rod production rebounded slightly but remained at a low level. The weekly operating rate of wire and cable continued to rise; the operating rate of copper strip rebounded [88][92][95][98][103][106]. - **Refined - Scrap Copper Price Difference**: The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed compared to last week, and the refined - scrap price difference on Friday was 475 yuan/ton [111]. 3.6 Capital Side - **Shanghai Copper Position**: The total position of Shanghai copper decreased by 824 to 1,158,912 lots (bilateral), among which the position of the near - month 2603 contract was 36,980 lots (bilateral) [116]. - **Foreign Fund Position**: As of March 10, the CFTC fund position remained net long, and the net long ratio declined to 20.4%; the proportion of long positions of LME investment funds rebounded (as of March 6) [119].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the copper industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about the upward trend of copper prices in 2026, driven by tight supply and improving demand [4][10] - As of January 30, 2026, the SHFE copper closing price was 103,680 CNY/ton, up 2.31% from January 23, while the LME copper closing price was 13,071 USD/ton, down 0.44% [1][17] - The report highlights a decrease in domestic copper social inventory by 2.2% and an increase in LME copper inventory by 2.6% [2][25] Supply Summary - In January 2026, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1793 million tons, a 0.1% increase month-on-month and a 16.3% increase year-on-year [3][65] - The TC spot price was -50.30 USD/ton, remaining at a low level since September 2007 [3][60] - Domestic copper concentrate inventory at major ports was 673,000 tons, down 6.8% from the previous week [2][46] Demand Summary - The cable industry's operating rate increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.46% as of January 29, 2026 [4][74] - Air conditioning production for February to April 2026 is projected to decline by 31.6%, 6.5%, and increase by 4.0% year-on-year [4][92] - The report indicates that the cable sector accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining, while also paying attention to Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing labor strike at Chile's Manto Verde mine has resulted in a significant reduction in copper production, maintaining only 30% of normal output during the strike, with no progress in negotiations [3][9] - High copper prices have led to a seasonal accumulation of copper inventories, with total stocks reaching elevated levels, while demand has been delayed due to the high prices and the onset of the off-season [4][10] Short-term Fundamental Changes - Recent increases in copper prices and rising sulfuric acid prices have helped to offset smelter profits, leading to an unexpected rise in domestic copper production [4][10] - The high copper prices have caused a significant decline in the operating rates of copper rod enterprises, resulting in a rapid accumulation of social copper inventories [4][10] - It is anticipated that the high copper prices will lead to delayed demand rather than a complete disappearance, with long-term consumption remaining robust [4][10] Medium to Long-term Core Logic - The macroeconomic narrative is improving, with potential downward risks in U.S. employment and manageable inflation, allowing for speculation on future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][10] - The U.S. continues to stockpile copper as a strategic metal, exacerbating the supply-demand balance globally, while domestic copper production is being stimulated through profit incentives for smelters [5][10] - Copper mine supply remains tight, with several mining companies lowering their mid-term production forecasts, indicating that supply constraints will persist into next year [5][10] - A consensus among Chinese copper smelting enterprises to reduce production by over 10% by 2026 is seen as a strategic move to ensure the industry's healthy development [5][10] Market Outlook - The arrival of the off-season and delayed demand have led to a rapid accumulation of copper inventories, posing a risk of short-term price declines [6][11] - The medium to long-term supply-demand outlook remains positive, with recommendations to observe the market until copper prices decline and inventories are consumed before re-entering long positions [6][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the copper market has cooled down. The copper price is expected to turn into a range - bound pattern to balance supply and demand in the short term, with the SHFE copper main contract running between 98,000 - 104,000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M between 12,400 - 13,300 US dollars/ton. The copper market is affected by factors such as supply tightness, inventory changes, and downstream demand. [12] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The spot processing fee of copper concentrate continues to decline, and smelting revenue still relies on by - product sulfuric acid. The processing fee of crude copper remains high. There are labor strikes at the Canadian Capstone Mantoverde copper - gold mine, and Panama plans to decide on the future of the Cobre Panama copper mine by June. The copper production of Luoyang Molybdenum and Ivanhoe Mines in Q4 2025 met expectations. [11] - Inventory: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 846,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 58,000 tons. The inventory of SHFE increased by 33,000 tons to 213,000 tons, LME increased by 6,000 tons to 144,000 tons, and COMEX increased by 19,000 tons to 489,000 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area is 106,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons. [11] - Import and Export: The spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper first widened and then narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. In December 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.704 million tons, a month - on - month increase, and the annual cumulative imports were 30.31 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 437,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 22.0%, with the annual cumulative imports of 5.321 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%. [11] - Demand: The copper price remains high, and downstream buyers purchase on dips. The expected increase in fixed - asset investment of the State Grid during the "15th Five - Year Plan" provides demand support. This week, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rods rebounded, while that of cables declined. The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread first widened and then narrowed, the substitution of scrap copper remained small, and the operating rate of scrap copper rods only slightly rebounded. [11] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: The copper price rose first and then fell. The SHFE copper main contract fell 0.8% this week (as of Friday's close), and LME copper fell 1.01% to 12,822.5 US dollars/ton. [18] - Spot Price: Details of spot prices of various copper products such as Yangtze River non - ferrous price, Guangdong Nanhai price, and prices of different copper materials are provided. [20] - Premiums and Discounts: The domestic copper spot basis weakened after the contract change, and on Friday, the copper spot in East China was at a discount of 125 yuan/ton to the futures. LME inventory increased, the cancelled warrant ratio decreased, and Cash/3M remained at a premium, reporting a premium of 61.5 US dollars/ton on Friday. The spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper first widened and then narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. [25] - Market Structure: Relevant figures of SHFE and LME copper market structure are presented. [27] 3. Profit and Inventory - Smelting Profit: The spot rough smelting fee TC of imported copper concentrate declined to - 46.5 US dollars/ton. The sulfuric acid price in East China slightly declined from a high level but still made a positive contribution to copper smelting revenue. [32] - Import - Export Ratio: Not elaborated in detail in the summary part, only relevant figures are provided. [34] - Import - Export Profit and Loss: The spot import loss of copper first widened and then narrowed. [37] - Inventory: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 846,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 58,000 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area is 106,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons. SHFE inventory increased, and the copper warrant quantity increased by 49,201 tons to 160,417 tons. LME inventory increased, mainly from Asian warehouses, and the cancelled warrant ratio decreased. [40][43][46] 4. Supply Side - Production: According to SMM research data, China's refined copper production in December 2025 increased by about 75,000 tons month - on - month, and it is expected to decline slightly in January 2026. According to NBS data, the domestic refined copper production in November 2025 was 1.236 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.9%, and the cumulative production from January to November was 13.323 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.80%. [50] - Import and Export: In December 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.704 million tons, a month - on - month increase, and the annual cumulative imports were 30.31 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 437,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 22.0%, with the annual cumulative imports of 5.321 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%. Other import and export data of copper products such as anode copper, refined copper, and recycled copper are also provided. [53][56] 5. Demand Side - Consumption Structure: The global electrolytic copper consumption is mainly in power (46%), home appliances (15%), etc. In China, it is mainly in construction (26%), equipment (23%), etc. [72] - PMI: China's official manufacturing PMI in December 2025 strengthened slightly, and Caixin manufacturing PMI returned above the boom - bust line. The manufacturing prosperity of major overseas economies was divided, with improvement in Japan and the UK, and weakening in the euro area, the US, and India. [75] - Downstream Industry Output: In November 2025, the output of some downstream copper industries such as automobiles, freezers, and washing machines increased year - on - year, while that of air conditioners, color TVs, and AC motors decreased. The cumulative output from January to November also showed different trends. [78] - Real Estate Data: In November 2025, domestic real estate data remained weak, with year - on - year declines in new construction, construction, sales, and completion, and the decline rates widened. The National Real Estate Climate Index continued to decline in November. [80] - Downstream Enterprise Operating Rates: The operating rates of different downstream copper enterprises such as copper rod, copper wire, and copper tube enterprises showed different trends in December 2025 and are expected to change in January 2026. This week, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rods rebounded, the scrap copper rod operating rate slightly recovered, the cable operating rate continued to decline, and the copper strip operating rate slightly rebounded. [83][95][98] - Refined - Scrap Copper Price Spread: The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread first widened and then narrowed, and the refined - scrap copper price spread on Friday was reported at 3,391 yuan/ton. [103] 6. Capital Side - SHFE Copper Positions: The total SHFE copper positions decreased by 76,102 to 1,287,180 lots (bilateral), with the near - month 2602 contract holding 125,612 lots (bilateral). [108] - Foreign Fund Positions: As of January 13, CFTC funds remained net long, but the net long ratio declined to 16.4%. The long - position ratio of LME investment funds slightly decreased (as of January 9). [111]

Summary of Conference Call on Copper Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the copper market, discussing supply-demand dynamics, price forecasts, and key companies in the industry [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Market Conditions - Despite reduced expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, copper prices have not been significantly affected, with global refined copper supply remaining tight [1][2]. - There has been an unexpected accumulation of copper inventories in China since December 2025, although downstream orders remain stable [2][3]. - The increase in refined copper imports to the U.S. has led to a convergence of the CL price spread, influenced by tariff expectations [1][2]. Price Forecasts - The expected price range for copper in 2026 is between 94,000 to 120,000 RMB/ton for Shanghai copper and 12,000 to 15,000 USD/ton for LME copper [1][4]. - The first quarter typically shows weaker performance, but prices may strengthen post-Chinese New Year due to seasonal demand [4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global copper concentrate production is expected to increase by approximately 600,000 tons in 2026, but actual increases may only be around 400,000 tons due to supply disruptions [3][12]. - The global smelting capacity is projected to grow at 2.3%, with an anticipated shortage of about 1.5 million tons in 2026 [3][12]. - High copper prices have suppressed downstream consumption, with the operating rate of refined copper rods dropping to a six-year low [14]. Key Companies to Watch - Recommended companies include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, and Zangge Mining, along with smaller firms like Western Mining and Hebei Steel Resources [1][5]. Inventory and Import Trends - As of December 2022, U.S. COMEX copper inventories were over 500,000 tons, with weekly imports around 20,000 tons [8]. - The high inventory levels are expected to continue, despite a potential decrease in import volumes in the coming weeks [8]. Impact of Strikes and Delays - The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile experienced a strike with limited impact, while the Mirador copper mine in Ecuador has delayed its second phase, which could significantly affect global supply if not resolved [9][10][11]. Long-term Demand and Supply Outlook - Long-term demand growth is expected to be around 4%, driven by emerging sectors like data centers and AI, despite short-term fluctuations [22]. - The domestic market in China is projected to see a surplus of about 300,000 tons in 2026, influenced by production increases and export adjustments [20]. Waste Copper Market - The waste copper market is expected to remain strong, with a significant increase in supply due to higher recycling rates and imports [23][24]. - Policy changes regarding waste copper could significantly impact supply dynamics [25]. Market Positioning and Strategy - Current high inventory levels suggest potential for increased price volatility, advising caution in trading strategies [26]. - High prices are exerting pressure on downstream industries, leading to reduced procurement and lower operating rates [27]. Seasonal Demand Expectations - Post-Chinese New Year demand is contingent on price stability; if prices remain manageable, a recovery in demand is anticipated [28][29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the copper market is bullish, and copper prices are fluctuating at a high level. The short - term supply of copper ore remains tight, and although high copper prices continue to suppress consumption and there is still pressure on domestic inventory accumulation, copper prices are strongly supported. It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate and rise in the short term. The operating range of the main SHFE copper contract is expected to be between 98,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton, and the LME copper 3M contract is expected to be between 12,400 - 13,500 US dollars/ton [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Demand**: In the new year, spot demand has slightly improved. Downstream buyers make moderate purchases at low prices, but demand is still suppressed by high prices. The initial consumption start - up rate of downstream industries continues to decline. The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread has widened, increasing the substitution advantage of scrap copper. However, the start - up rate of recycled copper rod production is maintained at a low level due to fiscal and tax policies [11]. - **Supply**: The spot processing fee for copper concentrate continues to decline, while the processing fee for blister copper remains high. There are supply disruptions such as strikes at the Mantoverde copper - gold mine and the postponed commissioning of the Mirador copper mine, and Codelco's production is below the expected target. The tight supply situation at the mine end persists [12]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 789,000 tons, an increase of 47,000 tons. SHFE inventory increased by 35,000 tons to 181,000 tons, LME inventory decreased slightly by 1,000 tons to 141,000 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 467,000 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 102,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai was at a discount of 45 yuan/ton to the futures on Friday, and the LME market Cash/3M was at a premium of 41.9 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Imports and Exports**: The loss of domestic electrolytic copper spot imports has relatively narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium has declined. In November 2025, China's refined copper imports were 305,000 tons, with a net import of 162,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 58.2%. The cumulative imports from January to November were 3.53 million tons, and the net imports were 2.837 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1% [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: The US raid on Venezuela enhanced the value of strategic resources, causing copper prices to surge. The main SHFE copper contract rose 3.23% week - on - week, and LME copper rose 4.05% to 12,965.5 US dollars/ton [20]. - **Spot Prices**: The domestic copper price rose and then fell. On Friday, the spot copper in East China was at a discount to the futures, and the discount narrowed to 45 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased, the proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and Cash/3M remained at a premium, reporting a premium of 41.9 US dollars/ton on Friday. Last week, domestic electrolytic copper spot imports remained in a loss, and the Yangshan copper premium declined [29]. - **Market Structure**: The SHFE copper market shifted to a Contango structure, while the LME copper market maintained a Back structure [32]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The spot rough - smelting fee (TC) for imported copper concentrate declined to - 45.4 US dollars/ton. The sulfuric acid price in East China slightly declined from a high level but still made a positive contribution to copper smelting revenue [37]. - **Import - Export Ratio**: The offshore RMB depreciated, and the spot SHFE - LME copper ratio rebounded slightly [40]. - **Import - Export Profit and Loss**: The loss of copper spot imports has shrunk [43]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 47,000 tons to 789,000 tons. The increase in SHFE inventory came from Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Guangdong, and the number of copper warrants increased by 29,441 to 111,216 tons. LME inventory decreased, with the decrease coming from Asian warehouses, and the proportion of cancelled warrants declined [46][49][52]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Production**: In December 2025, China's refined copper production increased by about 75,000 tons month - on - month. It is expected that the production in January 2026 will increase slightly month - on - month and maintain a relatively high year - on - year growth. In November 2025, the domestic refined copper production was 1.236 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.9%, and the cumulative production from January to November was 13.323 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8% [56]. - **Imports and Exports**: In November 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.526 million tons, a month - on - month increase. The cumulative imports from January to November were 27.614 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 427,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 19.3%. The imports of anode copper were 58,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 16.4%. The imports of refined copper were 305,000 tons, with a net import of 162,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 58.2%. The imports of recycled copper were 208,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.8% and a year - on - year increase of 20.0% [59][62][65][74]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: Globally, the main consumption areas of electrolytic copper are power (46%), home appliances (15%), and transportation (11%). In China, the main consumption areas are construction (26%), equipment (23%), and infrastructure (17%) [78]. - **Downstream Industry Data**: In November, the year - on - year production of automobiles, freezers, washing machines, refrigerators, and power generation equipment increased, while that of air conditioners, color TVs, and AC motors decreased. From January to November, the cumulative year - on - year production of automobiles, air conditioners, washing machines, refrigerators, and power generation equipment increased, while that of freezers, color TVs, and AC motors decreased. The domestic real - estate data in November continued to be weak, and the National Real - Estate Climate Index continued to decline [84][86]. - **Downstream Enterprise Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of most downstream copper enterprises showed different trends of rise and fall in December and are expected to change accordingly in January. This week, the start - up rates of electrolytic copper rods, wire and cable, and copper strips declined [101][104]. - **Scrap - Refined Price Spread**: The domestic scrap - refined copper price spread widened, reaching 4,401 yuan/ton on Friday [109]. 3.6 Capital Side - **SHFE Copper Positions**: The total SHFE copper positions increased by 127,796 to 1,363,282 lots (bilateral), and the positions of the near - month 2601 contract were 47,740 lots (bilateral) [114]. - **Foreign Fund Positions**: As of January 6, CFTC funds maintained a net long position, but the net long ratio declined to 18.1%. The proportion of long positions of LME investment funds slightly decreased (as of January 2) [117].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are likely to show a mainly oscillating and strengthening trend. Arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to mainly observe option contracts. [5][36] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract CU2602 of Shanghai copper futures showed an upward trend, ranging from around 93,390 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 99,730 yuan/ton. [9] 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspect - From December 25th to 26th, the National Conference on Industry and Information Technology emphasized ten key tasks for 2026, including cultivating and expanding emerging and future industries. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate path dot - plot shows 1 rate cut of 25 basis points in 2026, but analysts generally expect 2 - 3 rate cuts. Institutions like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley expect 2 rate cuts, with the policy rate dropping to 3.00% - 3.25%. [12][13] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation 3.3.1 Electrolytic Copper Production - As of November 2025, monthly refined copper production was 1.236 million tons, an increase of 32,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. As of December 25, 2025, the Chinese copper smelter's rough smelting fee was - 44 dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was - 4.58 cents/pound. [16] 3.3.2 Copper Product Production - As of November 2025, monthly copper product production was 2.226 million tons, an increase of 222,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%. [22] 3.4 Inventory Situation 3.4.1 Global Visible Inventory - As of December 26, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory was 111,703 tons, an increase of 15,898 tons from the previous week. As of December 23, 2025, LME copper inventory was 158,575 tons, an increase of 825 tons from the previous trading day, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 29.34%. [26] 3.4.2 Domestic Invisible Market Inventory - As of December 25, 2025, the Shanghai bonded area inventory was 96,500 tons (a decrease of 2,300 tons from the previous week), the Guangdong area inventory was 23,900 tons, and the Wuxi area inventory was 40,100 tons. [26] 3.5 Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve's interest rate path dot - plot shows 1 rate cut of 25 basis points in 2026, but analysts generally expect 2 - 3 rate cuts. Global refined copper supply and demand are basically balanced. Electrolytic copper production is growing rapidly month - on - month and still has a high year - on - year growth. Chinese copper smelter processing fees are slightly decreasing. The price difference between refined and scrap copper is expanding rapidly. Copper product production remains at a high level. Shanghai copper inventory has increased significantly, and the inventory level is at a relatively high level in recent years. LME copper inventory has decreased slightly. [35] 3.6 Future Outlook - Copper prices are likely to show a mainly oscillating and strengthening trend. Arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to mainly observe option contracts. [5][36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term bullish sentiment for copper has cooled, but the support remains strong. Although the copper valuation is relatively neutral, considering the Fed's interest - rate cut and the positive policy tone of the domestic Central Economic Work Conference, the overall sentiment is not pessimistic. The copper ore supply remains tight, and the pressure of refined copper surplus is not significant. It is expected that the risk of continuous decline in copper prices is small, and the prices may gradually turn into a volatile trend. The operating range of SHFE copper main contract is expected to be 90,000 - 94,500 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is expected to be 11,200 - 12,000 US dollars/ton [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The spot processing fee of copper concentrate has declined, while the processing fee of blister copper has increased month - on - month. The supply of scrap materials is relatively loose. As of the end of November, the Kuth Copper refinery under India's Adani Group is facing a serious raw material shortage crisis, with the actual arrival of copper concentrate less than 10% of the demand [11]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges has increased by 11,000 tons month - on - month. The inventory of SHFE has slightly increased by 500 tons to 89,000 tons, the inventory of LME has increased by 1,000 tons to 166,000 tons, and the inventory of COMEX has increased by 10,000 tons to 405,000 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area is 101,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons month - on - month. The spot in Shanghai, China on Friday was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the futures, and the LME market's Cash/3M was at a premium of 20.7 US dollars/ton [11]. - **Imports and Exports**: The spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper has slightly widened, and the Yangshan copper premium has remained stable. In November 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 427,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 19.3%. The cumulative imports from January to November were 4.907 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.67% [11]. - **Demand**: Due to the high copper prices, the spot market trading has been sluggish. The refined copper rod enterprises have strictly controlled the production rhythm, and the operating rate has declined. The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference has first narrowed and then widened, the substitution advantage of scrap copper has increased, and the operating rate of downstream scrap copper rod enterprises has rebounded from a low level [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: Copper prices have risen and then fallen. The SHFE copper main contract has increased by 1.40% week - on - week (as of Friday's close), and LME copper has decreased by 2.37% to 11,552.5 US dollars/ton [20]. - **Spot Prices**: The domestic copper prices have strengthened. On Friday, the copper spot in East China was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the futures. The LME inventory has increased, the proportion of cancelled warrants has risen, and the Cash/3M has remained at a premium, reporting a premium of 20.7 US dollars/ton on Friday. Last week, the spot import of domestic electrolytic copper remained at a loss, and the Yangshan copper premium has remained stable [25]. - **Structure**: The Back structure of SHFE copper has shrunk, while the LME copper has maintained the Back structure [28] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The spot rough - smelting fee TC for imported copper concentrate has declined to - 43.08 US dollars/ton. The sulfuric acid price in East China has continued to rise, which still has a positive impact on copper smelting revenue [33]. - **Imports and Exports Ratio**: The spot import loss of copper has slightly widened [38]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 661,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons month - on - month. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area is 101,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons month - on - month. The increase in SHFE inventory comes from Jiangsu and Guangdong, while the inventory in Shanghai has decreased. The number of copper warrants has increased by 1,102 to 32,563 tons. The LME inventory has increased, with the increase coming from Asian warehouses and a decrease in European inventory. The proportion of cancelled warrants has risen [41][44][47] 3.4 Supply Side - **Production**: In November 2025, China's refined copper production has increased by about 10,000 tons month - on - month, and it is expected to increase significantly in December. In October 2025, the domestic refined copper production was 1.204 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.98%, and the cumulative production from January to October was 12.295 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.70% [51]. - **Imports and Exports**: In November 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.526 million tons, a rebound from the previous month. The cumulative imports from January to November were 27.614 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. In November 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 427,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 19.3%. In October, China's refined copper imports were 323,000 tons, and the net imports were 257,000 tons. The proportion of imports from Russia, Chile, Australia, Kazakhstan, South Korea, and Morocco has increased, while the proportion of imports from Myanmar, Japan, etc. has decreased. In October, China's exports of refined copper were 66,000 tons, an increase of 39,000 tons month - on - month. The import of recycled copper in October was 197,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% [54][57][63] 3.5 Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: Globally, the consumption of electrolytic copper is mainly in the power sector (46%), followed by household appliances (15%), transportation (11%), etc. In China, the consumption is mainly in equipment (32%) and construction (26%) [72] - **Downstream Industry Output**: In October, the output of freezers among copper downstream industries has increased year - on - year, while the output of refrigerators, air conditioners, automobiles, color TVs, AC motors, and power generation equipment has decreased year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative output of automobiles, color TVs, and AC motors has increased year - on - year, while the cumulative output of freezers, power generation equipment, air conditioners, washing machines, and refrigerators has decreased [78] - **Downstream Enterprise Operating Rates**: In November, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises has recovered, and it is expected to slightly decline in December; the operating rate of scrap copper rod enterprises has decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline in December. The operating rate of enameled wire enterprises has rebounded, and it is expected to slightly improve in December; the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises has increased better than expected, and it is expected to continue to rise in December. The operating rate of copper tube enterprises has recovered, and it is expected to continue to rise in December; the operating rate of brass rod enterprises has increased, and it is expected to slightly strengthen in December. The operating rate of copper plate and strip enterprises has rebounded, and it is expected to increase in December; the operating rate of copper foil enterprises has increased, and it is expected to continue to rise in December. This week, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises has declined, while the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises has rebounded [83][86][89][92][95] - **Refined - Scrap Price Difference**: The domestic refined - scrap price difference has narrowed, and the refined - scrap price difference was reported at 4,797 yuan/ton on Friday [102] 3.6 Capital Side - **SHFE Copper Position**: The total position of SHFE copper has decreased by 13,496 to 1,293,826 lots (bilateral), among which the position of the near - month 2512 contract is 10,820 lots (bilateral) [107] - **Foreign Fund Position**: As of November 10, the CFTC fund position has maintained a net long position, with a net long ratio of 16.6%. The proportion of net long positions of LME investment funds has slightly increased (as of December 5) [110]