智通财经获悉，铜业股多数上涨，截至发稿，五矿资源(01208)涨2.61%，报3.93港元；洛阳钼业(03993) 涨1.53%，报9.31港元；江西铜业股份(00358)涨0.82%，报16.02港元；紫金矿业(02899)涨0.74%，报 21.82港元。 消息面上，8月4日，据新华社报道，智利总统博里奇近日表示，该国中部奥伊金斯大区数日前发生的矿 难共造成6人死亡，其中5名被困矿工全部遇难。据媒体报道，Codelco已启动事故原因调查，地下作业 全面停止。目前尚不清楚停产将持续多长时间，以及是否会影响公司的产量目标。该矿占Codelco总产 量逾四分之一，去年产铜35.6万吨。铜矿停产消息提振了本已紧张的铜市情绪。 此前，7月30日，美国总统特朗普签署了一项公告，以应对铜进口对美国国家安全的影响，包括对几类 铜进口产品征收关税。华西证券指出，由于此次关税未对铜原料进行限制，COMEX铜溢价消失，叠加 今年美国铜进口量已经超过去年全年，且74.3%进口量为不受关税影响的铜原料。预计贸易商未来将不 再持续往美国运输铜，铜将流向除美国外消费地区，例如欧洲和亚洲市场。预计LME铜与SHFE铜将回 归供需定价，目 ...

投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 资料来源：同花顺期货通（日线图表） 【冠通研究】 降息预期升温，支撑铜下方空间 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 4 日 【策略分析】 今日盘面高开低走，尾盘拉涨。美国 7 月非农就业仅新增 7.3 万个，6 月数据大幅 下修至 1.4 万，过去两个月累计下修 25.8 万，失业率升至 4.2%。9 月美联储降息概率从 37.7%飙升至 90%，年内降息两次预期强化。国内基本面来看，7 月 SMM 中国电解铜产量 环比大增 3.94 万吨，同比上升 14.21%。TC/RC 费用依然处于负值，但已经止跌回升，冶 炼厂三季度有三家工厂有检修计划，目前冶炼厂仍能依靠硫酸等副产品弥补亏损，目前 淡季下需求疲软，市场交投情绪不温不火铜半成品后续被征收关税，可能将影响出口需 求。上期所库存依然在低位，暂未大幅累库，支撑盘面价格。综合来看，铜关税落地 后，市场回归基本面，美国非农数据增加 9 月降息预期，美元走弱支撑铜价，基本面依 然处于宽松逻辑，但国内库存低位下跌空间有限，整体偏弱，关注下方 78000 元/吨支 撑。 1 【期现行情 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, copper prices first strengthened and then weakened. Domestic anti - involution and key industry stability - growth policies initially drove up copper prices, but later macro - sentiment cooled, and the 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products imposed by the Trump administration on August 1st, along with the Fed's hawkish stance, put pressure on copper prices [6][87]. - From a fundamental perspective, the supply of copper concentrates remains tight, with low processing fees and high domestic smelter output. Low inventories support copper prices, but terminal consumption is in the off - season, and the supply - demand weakness may drag down copper prices. After the US copper import tariff is clear, overseas inventories have increased significantly, and there is still downward pressure on copper prices, which are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [88]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In July, copper prices first strengthened and then weakened. Domestic policies and the weakening of the US dollar initially boosted copper prices, but later, the cooling of domestic macro - sentiment, the 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products, and the Fed's hawkish stance led to a decline in copper prices. The sharp drop in US copper by over 20% also drove down Shanghai and London copper prices [6]. 2. Macroeconomic Factor Analysis Overseas Macroeconomy - US inflation showed a moderate increase in June. The CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, and the core PCE price index rose 2.8% year - on - year. In July, non - farm payrolls increased by only 73,000, the lowest in 9 months, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, but the poor non - farm data increased the probability of a rate cut this year [12][13]. - The US manufacturing PMI was in a contraction range in July, with the ISM manufacturing index at 48, lower than expected. The Markit manufacturing PMI hit a new low since December last year, while the service PMI reached a new high. The US dollar index first weakened and then strengthened in July, putting pressure on commodity prices [15]. Domestic Macroeconomy - China's CPI turned positive in June, rising 0.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI reached a 14 - month high. The PPI decline widened to 3.6%. The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR remained unchanged in July. From January to June, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, more than the same period last year. The scissors gap between M2 and M1 narrowed [22]. - In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1, also down 0.4 percentage points. The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2, indicating that overall business activities were still expanding. From January to June, China's fixed - asset investment increased by more than 5% year - on - year [25]. 3. Fundamental Analysis Mine Supply - From January to May, the global copper concentrate production capacity was 12.105 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.93%, and the production was 9.524 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.27%. The copper production in Chile and Peru from January to May was 323,390 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.04% [31]. Smelting - The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the conflict between mines and smelters persists. As of August 1st, the spot smelting fee (TC) for copper concentrates was - 42 dollars per ton, and the processing fee has been at a historical low [33]. Refined Copper - In June, the utilization rate of copper production capacity increased to 82.69%, and the electrolytic copper output was 1.1349 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.93%. In July, the price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting, remained strong, partially offsetting the losses at the smelting end [37]. Import and Export - In June, China's refined copper imports were 300,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.11%. As of July 31st, the Shanghai - London ratio of electrolytic copper was 8.11, and the import profit was negative [38]. Scrap Copper - In June, domestic scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.49% but a month - on - month decrease of 1.06%. In July, the price difference between refined and scrap copper narrowed [42]. Processing - In June, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 67.29%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.97 percentage points, but it increased to 71.73% as of August 1st. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises in June was 33.61%, a month - on - month increase of 3.69% [44][45]. Terminal Demand - From January to June, China's power grid project investment was 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%, and power source project investment was 363.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. In June, the cumulative new installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power continued to grow, but the growth rate is expected to slow down in the second half of the year [50]. - In June, the real estate completion area decreased by 14.8% year - on - year, and the new construction area decreased by 20% year - on - year. The real estate market is still at the bottom - grinding stage, dragging down copper demand [53]. - In June, China's automobile production was 2.8086 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.49%, and new - energy vehicle production was 1.234 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20.39%. The new - energy vehicle market maintains high - level development [59]. - In June, the production of refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners maintained a certain growth rate, and the domestic "Two New" policies are expected to support the demand for copper in the home appliance industry [61]. Inventory - As of August 1st, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 72,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.24%. As of July 28th, the domestic social copper inventory was 120,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.48%. The global visible copper inventory has rebounded from a low level [63][66]. Premium and Discount - In July, the domestic spot premium first rose and then fell. After the US copper tariff was implemented on August 1st, the LME copper inventory increased, and the LME copper spot/3 - month changed from a premium to a discount [68][69]. Domestic and Overseas Positions - In July, the average daily trading volume of Shanghai copper was 83,728.74 lots. As of August 1st, the Shanghai copper position was 176,193 lots, a decrease of 21.34% from the beginning of the month. The net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions increased significantly [79]. 4. Technical Analysis - Technically, Shanghai copper is expected to continue its short - term downward oscillation trend, with support at the 77,600 level. The reference range for copper prices in August is expected to be between 77,000 and 80,000 [83]. 5. Future Outlook - From a macro perspective, the weak US manufacturing PMI and poor non - farm payroll data increase the probability of a rate cut this year. The Trump administration's 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and the cooling of domestic macro - sentiment put pressure on copper prices [87]. - Fundamentally, the supply of copper concentrates is tight, and low inventories support copper prices, but the off - season terminal consumption and the supply - demand weakness may drag down copper prices. After the US copper import tariff is clear, overseas inventories have increased, and there is still downward pressure on Shanghai and London copper prices, which are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [88].

铜周报 2025/08/02 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） 美国铜关税落地，价格回落 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 利润库存 06 资金端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 供应：铜精矿现货加工费小幅回升，粗铜加工费环比抬升，冷料供应边际宽松。消息面，智利国家统计局数据显示，该国6月铜产量42.4万 吨，环比明显回落，且同比由增转降。近期智利国家铜业（Codelco）旗下EI Teniente铜矿因地震发生人员伤亡事故，事故地区附近活动已 经停止，该矿2024年产量35.6万吨，如果停产将加剧本已紧张的铜矿供应局势。 ◆ 库存：三大交易所库存环比增加2.1万吨，其中上期所库存减少0.1至7.3万吨，LME库存增加1.3至14.2万吨，COMEX库存增加0.8至23.4万吨。 上海保税区库存增加0.4万吨。现货方面，周五国内上海地区现货升水期货175元/吨，LME市场Cash/3M贴水49.3美元/吨。 ◆ 进出口：国内 ...

该消息发布之后COMEX铜主力合约当日大幅下跌，而沪铜和伦铜价格并未产生大幅波动。 "原先市场预期美国方面要对精铜征收50%关税，使得COMEX铜对标伦铜以及沪铜产生近30%的溢价， 而本周三白宫方面给出的最终结果是，电解铜（即精铜）并未在加征关税范畴之内，因此COMEX铜溢 价被迅速打回，这才造成了美铜大幅下跌而伦铜与沪铜下跌有限的情况。"华泰期货研究员师橙告诉记 者。 建信期货研报指出，市场从今年2月25日特朗普提出对美国铜进口展开调查时就开始交易美铜关税这一 逻辑，推动了全球铜价上涨以及COMEX-LME溢价，如今预期落空，美铜高溢价向正常范围回归。 从价差角度看，美铜显著回落后，与伦铜价差大幅走缩至不足150美元／吨，溢价约1%。师橙表示，美 铜已大幅回归基本面，但与伦铜仍存在一定价差。后续由于美国市场库存相对偏高，若需求无法明显走 强，高库存将持续令美铜承压，甚至可能使我国国内市场或伦敦市场对美国市场存在溢价，进而导致美 铜再度流出。 新华财经北京8月1日电（记者王小璐）7月30日美国"铜关税"落地之后，因铜输入材料和铜废料等未纳 入加征关税范畴，市场预期落空，COMEX铜主力合约大幅回落，30日当 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Maintain a strategy of buying on dips in August. The shortage of copper mines this year is more severe than last year, and the overall shortage of copper mines throughout the year supports copper prices. In the short - term, due to the implementation of copper tariffs (excluding electrolytic copper) and the further decline of the September interest - rate cut expectation, copper prices are in a continuous adjustment, with a support level at 77,000. In the medium - to - long - term, there are still expectations of two interest - rate cuts this year, and the tight supply of copper mines will continue to support copper prices, so the strategy of buying on dips is maintained [6][7]. Summary by Directory 01后市研判 - In August, maintain the strategy of buying on dips. The shortage of copper mines this year is more severe than last year, providing support for copper prices. In the short - term, copper prices are adjusting due to tariff implementation and the decline of the September interest - rate cut expectation, with a support at 77,000. In the medium - to - long - term, expect two interest - rate cuts this year, and continue to maintain the buying - on - dips strategy [6][7]. 02行情回顾 - In July, copper prices remained in a high - level consolidation. From late June to early July, due to the expectation that the 232 policy might be implemented in September or October, the shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions intensified, and copper prices rose. On July 3, Shanghai copper reached 80,990 yuan/ton, equivalent to 10,000 US dollars/ton for London copper. On July 8, the US announced a 50% tariff on copper, and copper prices fell from the high. On July 14, copper prices hit the monthly low of 77,700 yuan/ton. In late July, the "anti - involution" trend and the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station project boosted market sentiment, and copper prices reached 80,000 yuan/ton again. But after the sentiment faded, copper prices returned to the fundamentals [9][10]. 03宏观面 - **International Situation**: On August 1, the 50% copper tariff excluded electrolytic copper, copper ore, and scrap copper. Excluding the electrolytic copper tariff made the CME market almost eliminate the tariff premium, and there is a possibility of US electrolytic copper flowing out, accelerating the supply - demand balance in non - US regions. In July, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. Powell's speech was hawkish, and the strong US economic and employment data increased the risk of inflation, causing the September interest - rate cut expectation to decline further, and the US dollar index rebounded, suppressing copper prices. In the medium - to - long - term, as the tariff situation eases and the actual US CPI shows a moderate increase, the market has been lowering CPI expectations, opening up space for interest - rate cuts in Q3, and there are still expectations of two interest - rate cuts this year, which will gradually remove the upward pressure on metals [8]. - **US Economic Data**: In June, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, in line with market expectations. The core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, both lower than expected. In July, the ADP employment increased by 104,000, exceeding economists' expectations but still far below last year's average. The second - quarter real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarterly initial value increased by 3%, significantly exceeding market expectations. The core PCE price index in June increased by 2.8% year - on - year, higher than expected. The strong US economic and employment data increased the risk of inflation, and the 9 - month interest - rate cut expectation may be further reduced [20]. - **Domestic Situation**: The domestic economy is generally stable, and there is an expectation for the accelerated implementation of growth - stabilizing policies. From the supply side, according to the "Implementation Plan for the High - Quality Development of the Copper Industry (2025 - 2027)", copper smelting development will shift from capacity expansion to quality and efficiency improvement, and the contradiction between mining and smelting is expected to be gradually alleviated. From the demand side, the "anti - involution" policies focus on a new round of growth - stabilizing actions, and the stable growth of the manufacturing industry will boost copper demand. In the medium - to - long - term, after the elimination of over - capacity, the supply growth rate may lag behind the demand improvement rate, further pushing up the copper price [23][26]. 04基本面 - **Supply Side** - **Copper Ore Import**: In June, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.3497 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91% and a year - on - year increase of 1.77%. The supply from the top two suppliers, Chile and Peru, continued to decline, with Peru's decline being around 15%. The long - term processing fees negotiated between domestic smelters and overseas miners this year are zero, and the spot processing fees remain low, indicating that the tight supply of copper mines is difficult to ease in the short term [27]. - **Copper Concentrate Processing Fees**: As of the week of July 25, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 42.98 US dollars/dry ton, up 0.22 US dollars/dry ton from the previous week. The spot market for copper concentrates remained relatively inactive, and the processing fees showed a trend of "stabilizing with a slight correction". The 2025 Q2 CSPC general manager's meeting decided not to set a reference figure for the Q3 spot copper concentrate processing fees [30]. - **Refined Copper Inventory**: Affected by the 232 tariff policy, the rush to import copper started in April. In April and May, the US imported 200,000 tons and 210,000 tons of refined copper respectively, far exceeding the historical average of 80,000 tons, causing a shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions. As of June 30, the LME inventory dropped to 90,000 tons, a decrease of 180,000 tons from the beginning of the year. With the implementation of the 232 policy, the LME inventory started to increase, reaching 128,000 tons by July 25. The New York copper inventory continued to accumulate, reaching a new high in more than seven years. As of July 31, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 121,300 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons from the 28th [33]. - **Electrolytic Copper Production**: In the first half of 2025, domestic electrolytic copper production reached a new high. From January to June, the cumulative production was 6.593 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 674,700 tons, or 11.40%. In July, the estimated production was 1.1504 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.36% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. Although smelting is in a loss - making stage, the willingness to actively reduce production is not strong [36]. - **Scrap Copper Import**: In June, China's scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.06% and a year - on - year increase of 8.49%. The supply from Thailand, the new largest scrap copper supplier, continued to rise by more than 20%, and the supply from Asian countries such as Japan, Malaysia, and South Korea also increased to varying degrees, while the supply from the US decreased by more than 80%. Due to the adjustment of the smelting raw material structure, the increased supply from other countries compensated for the decrease from the US [39]. - **Demand Side** - **Power Sector**: In 2025, the State Grid's investment is expected to exceed 650 billion yuan for the first time. From January to June, the power grid investment was 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. The power source project investment increased by 5.9% year - on - year, mainly due to the over - expected growth of photovoltaic and wind power installations. If the two - grid companies complete their planned investment of 825 billion yuan, there is still significant room for growth in power grid investment. Affected by the off - season and high copper prices, the cable operating rate in June dropped to 72.41%. From January to June, China's cable exports were 1.4296 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.63%. The "Belt and Road" countries have great potential in promoting China's power material exports [41]. - **Real Estate Sector**: From January to June, real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, and housing construction area decreased by 9.1%. New housing starts decreased by 20.0%, and housing completions decreased by 14.8%. Although real estate sales are basically stable and inventory is decreasing, the demand for copper in the real estate sector remains weak [45]. - **Automobile Sector**: From January to June, automobile production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% and 11.4%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 41.4% and 40.3%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is approaching 50%. China's automobile exports were 3.083 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%, with new energy vehicle exports increasing by 75.2%. The growth of the automobile industry will drive copper consumption [48]. - **Home Appliance Sector**: In June, the national air - conditioner production was 28.383 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. From January to June, the cumulative production was 163.296 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. In August, the combined production plan for air - conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 26.97 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. The production plan for household air - conditioners in August was 11.443 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%, but the decline was expected to narrow compared to the previous month. The high - temperature weather in summer and the "trade - in" subsidy policy promoted air - conditioner sales and inventory digestion [51].

期 节有限公司 近期3OMEX铜价大幅度下跌，日内跌幅近20%，原因是美国时钢关税落地。精铸铜胶排除在关税之外。美国白官7月30日表示，美国铭自8月1日起对进口半成品铜厂品《例如铜管、铜 线、铜棒、铜板和钢管）及铜密集型衍生产品（例如管件、电缆、连接器和电气元件）普遍征收50%的关税。但铜渝入材料（例如铜矿石、精矿、新铜、阴双铜和阳改网）和钢废料不受"22 系款"或尔等关税约束。美国时铜关税与市场前期预期存在较大差异，精炼铜被排除在关税之外，COMEX与LME铜价差也从最高近3000美元降至当前不足000美元。我们在前期的系列报告 《铜市裂痕：COMEX与LME及碳价差背后的玄机》中已经对相关原理做过详细阐述，近期美国内钢关税尘埃落定，精炼铜不受"282条款"或对等关税的束，预示着C-L之间的高价差将回落至 历史正常值。而对进口半成品铜产品仍征收关税，意味着美国后续或将增加精炼钢的进口量而替代铜材的进口，进而促使铜加工企业回流美国。 基本面情况 从铜的供需面来看，铜矿 供应仍然偏紧，铜矿加工费仍然处于历史偏低水平，当前位于-40美元以下。且粗胸加工费低位，原料供应依然紧张，前期刚果金卡莫拉铜厂下调全年铜矿产量 ...

证券研究报告|行业点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 01 日 [Table_Title] 特朗普铜关税影响不及预期，铜价将回归供需定价 [Table_Title2] 有色金属 行业评级: 推荐 [Table_Summary] 事件概述: 7 月 30 日，美国总统特朗普签署了一项公告，以应对铜进口对美国国家安全的影响，包括对几类铜进口产品征 收关税。1）该公告对铜半成品（如铜管、铜线、铜棒、铜板和铜管）和铜密集型衍生产品（如管件、电缆、连 接器和电子元件）的进口普遍征收 50%的关税，自 8 月 1 日起生效。2）铜原料（如铜矿石、铜精矿、无光泽 铜、阴极铜和阳极铜）和铜废料不受 232 关税或互惠关税的限制。3）铜 232 关税不与汽车 232 关税叠加。如果 某产品被征收汽车 232 关税，则适用汽车 232 关税，而非铜 232 关税。4）铜 232 关税适用于产品中的铜含量； 产品中的非铜含量仍适用互惠关税或其他适用关税。这些关税不会叠加。 分析与判断: ►铜关税影响数量有限，进口国家较为集中 此次铜关税旨在保护美国本土产业与资源控制权争夺，根据美国海关数据，2024 年美国 ...

Group 1 - COMEX copper futures experienced a significant decline of 18.03%, closing at $4.6115 per pound [1] - The copper price initially surged to a daily high of $5.83 following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the White House's announcement regarding tariff exemptions, before plummeting below $4.80 and hitting a low of $4.5030 [1] - The U.S. copper index ETF fell by 19.31%, while copper mining ETFs decreased by 2.9% [1] Group 2 - Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) shares dropped by 9.46%, with a cumulative decline of 13% over the last five trading days [1] - Hudbay Minerals saw a decline of 7%, and Southern Copper Corporation's shares fell by 6.33% [1]

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 30 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 每日报告 【建信期货研究发展部】 宏观金融研究团队 021-60635739 有色金属研究团队 021-60635734 黑色金属研究团队 021-60635736 石油化工研究团队 021-60635738 农业产品研究团队 021-60635732 量化策略研究团队 021-60635726 免责声明： 沪铜继续在趋势线下方运行，隔夜智利 ...