2025 年 6 月 23 日 继续关注库存动向 铝价保持偏好 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com.cn 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 铝周报 ⚫ 上周美联储6月利率维持不变，会后点阵图显示2025 年或还有两次降息，不过鲍威尔发言偏鹰，市场对快 速降息预期落空。同时伊以冲突不断升级，地缘局势 令市场风险偏好回落。国内5月消费数据保持高增不 过持续性存疑，投资及出口数据有压力，经济仍需政 策呵护。基本面，供应端高铝水低铸锭情况 ...

智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布报告指，2025年下半年，美国的铜关税和中国需求放缓或导致铜价在 第三季度下滑，至9,100美元/吨左右。此前美国的进口提前采购和中国市场需求曾使得铜供应收紧，随 着收紧因素的逆转，市场将获得喘息空间。但总体而言，铜供应增长仍面临挑战，因此铜价或将在 9,000 美元/吨或略高于这一水平的位置获得基本支撑。 摩根大通主要观点如下： 2025 年上半年，铜基本面因两大提前采购因素而显著收紧：美国在潜在铜关税前的进口以及中国需求 的提前释放。我们认为，2025 年下半年这两大动态都将出现 "反噬"，这使得我们对今年剩余时间的铜 价更为谨慎，预计铜价将在 2025 年第三季度下滑至 9,100 美元 / 吨左右，之后在 2025 年第四季度稳定 在 9,350 美元 / 吨左右。 全球铜库存并非整体极度紧张，而是存在显著的错位和失衡。在潜在关税实施前，美国在 2025 年上半 年有望进口约 43 万吨过剩精炼铜(高于正常进口需求)，这相当于美国正常铜进口需求约六个月的库存 量。正如我们在报告中详细阐述的，我们的基准情景仍假设美国将在 7 月底前宣布对精炼铜及铜产品进 口征收 25% ...

消息面 据外媒报道，金属市场人士称，周三美国现货铝升水下降逾7%，因为交易商臆测美国可能会降低自加 拿大进口商品的关税。 世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布的最新报告显示，2025年4月，全球原铝产量为609.12万吨，消费量为 586.49万吨，供应过剩22.63万吨。2025年1-4月，全球原铝产量为2425.23万吨，消费量为2324.12万吨， 供应过剩101.11万吨。 海关总署6月18日公布的数据显示，中国2025年5月铝矿砂及其精矿进口量为1751万吨，同比增加 29.4%；1—5月铝矿砂及其精矿进口量为8518万吨，同比增加33.1%。 机构观点 正信期货： 华联期货： 市场方面，近期氧化铝现货供给改善，价格仍偏弱，电解铝成本将下滑，供应稳定，部分铝厂上调铝水 比例，铸锭量下滑。5月国内电解铝运行产能环比持稳，预计6月国内电解铝运行产能维持高位。不过需 求端下游铝加工淡季氛围浓厚。其中，原生铝合金行业开工率较5月变化不大，再生铝板块受淡季影 响，国内市场与出口订单均出现不同程度下滑。不过由于国内冶炼开工率已经处于高位，进一步提升空 间非常有限，供应总体压力不大，库存较低，预计近期仍偏强运行。操作上 ...

铝产业周报 氧化铝震荡偏弱，电解铝或高位回落，铝合金维持震荡运行 2025年6月13日当周 CO NTENTS 目 录 01 观点与策略 0203 盘面回顾 氧化铝&电解铝重点数据追踪 04 铝合金重点数据追踪 01 观点策略 观点策略 中美会谈释放良好信号，伦铝先涨后跌，环比上周涨幅2.1%；沪铝持续上涨，环比上周涨 幅1.84%。 沪铝主力合约收盘价（元/吨）；伦铝收盘价（美元/吨） 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 17000 17500 18000 18500 19000 19500 20000 20500 21000 21500 22000 2023/07/25 2023/11/25 2024/03/25 2024/07/25 2024/11/25 2025/03/25 SHFE铝 LME铝 数据来源：Mysteel、佛山金控期货研究部 盘面表现回顾 | | 观点 | 核心逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 氧化铝 | 震荡偏弱 | 综合来看，我国铝土矿整体供应偏紧局面因进口矿石补充逐渐缓解；海内外铝土矿价 | | ...

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：流通货源偏紧 铝价偏强运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价偏强震荡。数据显示，5 月美国 PPI 环比涨幅低于预期， 因机票等服务价格下降而受抑，压制美元。美国 5 月通胀数据低于预期， 暗示美联储可能会尽快恢复降息。 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局 ...

当地时间6月3日，美国白宫发表声明称，美国总统特朗普宣布将进口钢铁和铝及其衍生制品的关税从 25%提高至50%，该关税政策自美国东部时间2025年6月4日凌晨00时01分起生效。自该关税政策宣布以 来，美国中西部电解铝现货升水大幅走高，LME铝现货亦转为升水状态。 5月我国电解铝产量为372.9万吨，同比增长2.7%，环比增长3.4%。5月国内电解铝运行产能环比持稳， 原因在于周期内无新增项目落地，且无大规模检修、减产情况，原材料供应充足，企业利润维持合理水 平。预计6月国内电解铝运行产能维持高位。 4月我国原铝进口量为25.05万吨，环比增长12.8%；出口量为1.37万吨，环比增长54.6%，净进口为23.68 万吨。 步入6月，下游铝加工淡季氛围浓厚，上周铝行业周开工率环比下降0.4个百分点至60.9%。其中，原生 铝合金行业开工率较5月变化不大，维持平稳运行；铝板带板块个别样本企业开工率走低，反映出局部 产能收缩；铝线缆板块市场订单表现有所分化，不同企业间接单情况差异显著；铝型材板块开工呈现结 构性分化，建材、光伏边框型材受传统淡季影响开工率下滑，而3C领域订单、电力管道及轨道交通订 单相对饱和，对开 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-10 铝锭社会库存维持去库模式 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20210元/吨，较上一交易日下跌20元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日持平于70元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20150元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日下跌10元/ 吨至10元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20080元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日下跌5元/吨至-60元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-06-09日沪铝主力合约开于19980元/吨，收于20025元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价下跌40元/ 吨，跌幅-0.2%，最高价达20095元/吨，最低价达到19940元/吨。全天交易日成交133229手，较上一交易日增 加19493手，全天交易日持仓181672手，较上一交易日增加214手。 库存方面，截止2025-06-09，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存47.7万吨。截止2025-06-09，LME铝库存362000 吨，较前一交易日减少1850吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-06-09 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3280元/吨，山东价格录得3260元/吨，广西价格 ...

智通财经6月3日电，高盛集团在报告中表示，预计铝价将在2026年初降至每吨2100美元低点，达到这个 水平才会使印尼冶炼产能的过度投资暂停。Eoin Dinsmore等分析师周一在报告中表示，印尼三座50万 吨冶炼厂将于2026年年中投入运营，比预期要早。产量增加将导致2026年出现100万吨过剩供应，为 2020年以来最大过剩程度。成本价格下降，氧化铝价格疲软，能源价格也将在2026年给铝价带来下行压 力。随着市场重新平衡，未来几年价格将上行至每吨2150美元至2550美元区间。该行将2026年和2027年 的价格预测分别从之前的2540美元和2800美元下调至每吨2230美元和2500美元。 高盛：受印尼供应加速影响 铝价或跌至每吨2100美元 ...

行业 铝日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 23 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1：机构净持仓 图2：机构多空比 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 二、行业要闻 作为全球领先的铝生产商之一，阿联酋全球铝业公司 (Emirates Global Aluminium) 宣布计划在美国俄克拉荷马州投资 40 亿美元建设铝厂。唐纳 德·特朗普一直倡导富裕的海湾国家增加对美投资，以规避其关税政策。该 冶炼厂年产能预计达到 60 万吨原铝，建设将于 2026 年底动工，2030 年竣工 投产。EGA 还将与美国国防承包 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, demand has a marginal weakening expectation, but the inventory is at a low level. The center of aluminum price operation has a downward risk, and it is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point. For alumina, the progress of new production capacity is the key focus, and the short - term price rebound space is limited, with an expected weak and volatile operation [2][68]. Summary by Related Catalogs Electrolytic Aluminum Macro - Sino - US talks have started, but the probability of reaching an agreement in the short term is limited. The US has multiple rounds of tariff talks with other countries. The US and the UK have reached a tariff agreement, canceling the 232 aluminum tariff on the UK. The US economic data is strong, and the Fed's stance is still hawkish, reducing the market's expectation of the number of Fed rate cuts to three times this year. China has introduced multiple economic stimulus policies [2]. Industry Supply - The supply side has little short - term change, with a slow increase in production. Future capacity changes will mainly involve small - scale restarts and replacement of production capacity [2]. Industry Demand - In April, the apparent consumption of aluminum increased by more than 7% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase from January to April was more than 5% year - on - year. However, the high - growth demand did not boost market confidence. The marginal weakening of demand is highly certain. The photovoltaic module production schedule in May is expected to be 55GW, a 10% month - on - month decrease. The home appliance production schedule increases year - on - year but weakens month - on - month. The orders of photovoltaic aluminum profile enterprises have declined. Last week, the operating rates of leading aluminum profile and aluminum plate - strip - foil enterprises decreased month - on - month, while the operating rate of aluminum cables increased month - on - month [2]. Inventory - The net import of aluminum ingots is expected to remain at a high level of over 160,000 tons. The inventory of aluminum ingots in the bonded area continues to increase. The social inventory of aluminum ingots briefly increased after the May Day holiday, which is in line with the seasonality. Based on historical data, the inventory can decrease by 120,000 - 180,000 tons in the whole month. With the social inventory of aluminum ingots at over 620,000 tons at the beginning of May, it is expected to drop to a low level of over 500,000 tons next week, which is expected to support the monthly spread [2]. Trading Logic - The impact of tariffs on global aluminum demand remains to be reflected at the micro - level. The subsequent low - level social inventory of aluminum ingots is expected to support the monthly spread. However, with the marginal weakening of demand in sectors such as photovoltaics and home appliances, pay attention to the consumption inflection point from May to June. The short - term strong supply - demand performance in China cannot reverse the annual surplus pressure. The expectation of marginal demand decline in the middle of the year remains unchanged. It is expected that the aluminum price will mainly fluctuate widely. To stably break through the 20,000 - yuan mark, the global annual aluminum consumption expectation needs to improve. To break below the 19,000 - yuan mark, the weakening expectation on the demand side needs to be realized. Since the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum is still at a relatively high level of about 3,500 yuan in recent years, pay attention to the possibility of the off - season expectation being realized ahead of schedule from June to July, leading to a decline in aluminum price and a contraction in aluminum profit [2]. Trading Strategy - The actual impact of tariffs on the global economy remains to be seen. With the expectation of marginal demand weakening but a relatively low absolute inventory level, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and derivatives trading [2]. Alumina Raw Material End - After the May Day holiday, the bauxite market had a significant price adjustment. Large mining enterprises revised the long - term agreement prices for the second quarter. The price of Guinea's mainstream 45/3 ore was lowered to $75 per dry ton (CIF). The bulk market also weakened, with the 45/3 ore quotation falling below $75 per dry ton, and some low - quality ore quotes reaching $72 per dry ton. However, buyers remained cautious. As mining enterprises and traders accelerate shipments, the alumina price recovers, and the rainy season in Guinea approaches, the procurement activities of downstream alumina enterprises are expected to gradually pick up [68]. Supply End - After the May Day holiday, the number of domestic alumina enterprises undergoing phased maintenance and production reduction continued to increase, covering regions such as Guizhou, Guangxi, and Shanxi. The total operating capacity decreased by 550,000 tons compared with before the holiday, and the operating rate was 78.2% [68]. Trading Logic - A news item last week triggered market concerns about alumina supply and pushed up the price, but the actual impact and real situation need continuous tracking. In May, both maintenance and restart of alumina production capacity occurred, and new production capacity will gradually produce finished products. Pay attention to the impact of the progress of new production capacity on the supply - demand balance shifting from short - term tight balance to surplus. The price of imported bauxite is on a downward trend, and the alumina warehouse receipts are still at a high level. If the maintenance capacity recovers, there is a possibility of positive restart. It is expected that the rebound range of the alumina price will be relatively limited, and it will maintain a weak and volatile operation [68]. Trading Strategy - In the short term, the alumina price is expected to operate weakly and volatilely. If the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged after the price rebound, consider short - selling. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and option trading [68].