消息面 2025年11月第3周，共计14个工作日，巴西累计装出铝矿石和铝精矿25.35万吨，去年11月为40.06万吨。 日均装运量为1.81万吨/日，较去年11月的2.11万吨/日减少14.12%。 铜冠金源期货： 近两日美联储官员接连发表鸽派讲话，美联储降息预期重新升温，市场风险偏好切换，铝价企稳。基本 面前期铝价强制抑制部分消费，近期价格回落下游补货增加，出库加快，周内铝锭社会库存继续去库。 海外继续关注冰岛铝厂减产进度。风险偏好转好，国内去库支持，提供铝价支撑，预计企稳震荡。 华联期货： 行业方面，近期宏观政策预期和经济数据偏空，利空铝价出现回调。行业方面，当前氧化铝行业尚未出 现大规模减产，且进口窗口持续开启，在供应过剩的格局下，预计氧化铝价格将承压下行。国内电解铝 运行产能总体持稳，产量维持高位。尽管北方地区季节性环保限产对局部生产有所影响，但由于停槽后 产量呈缓慢衰减，对全国总供给的实际冲击较为有限。海外电解铝供应有走紧预期。市场需求步入消费 淡旺季交替时段，高铝价显著抑制了下游的采购意愿，现货市场整体成交平淡，下游企业以刚需补库为 主。从结构上来看，需求分化态势明显，建筑型材需求因房地产行业低 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an overall rating of "Bullish Oscillation" for the electrolytic aluminum industry [4][11] Core Viewpoints - Mid - term (2026): The global supply growth rate of primary aluminum is expected to slow down, while demand is likely to remain resilient due to the global manufacturing recovery. The supply gap is expected to widen compared to 2025, indicating a bullish mid - term supply - demand pattern [4] - Short - term (November 2025): The aluminum price may fluctuate. There is no significant new demand increment, and although the demand is resilient, the exploration above 22,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum usually requires major supply disruptions. The supply from Guinea is expected to be stable at the end of the year, and domestic bauxite and alumina inventories are abundant [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall View Supply - Bauxite: The market is in a state of oversupply. Market participants expect an increase in shipments from Guinea at the end of the year, and the cumulative import volume growth rate of bauxite this year is higher than the cumulative production growth rate of alumina [9][12] - Alumina: As of November 21, 2025, the domestic built - in capacity is about 11,255 million tons, the operating capacity is about 9,660 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is about 85.46%. In 2026, about 1,440 million tons/year of new capacity will be put into production, mainly in the first half of the year in the southwest and northern coastal regions. The supply - demand contradiction is still severe due to high inventory and new capacity [9] - Electrolytic Aluminum: In October 2025, the domestic built - in capacity was about 4,571.65 million tons, and the operating capacity was about 4,455.93 million tons. The domestic smelting profit is high, and the supply is steadily increasing. However, overseas supply may decrease due to power shortages, and the global aluminum supply has entered a low - growth stage [9] Demand - Aluminum Profiles: The weekly industry starting rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 52.6%. The construction profile market sentiment is weak, while the automotive profile orders are expected to last until the end of the year. The procurement of photovoltaic component factories has slowed down, and the starting rate is expected to decline slightly [10] - Aluminum Plate, Strip and Foil: The starting rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 66.0%, but it will continue to decline due to the off - season, uncertain environmental policies, and lack of order support. The starting rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 70.4%, and the demand in traditional consumption areas is weak [10] - Aluminum Cables: The weekly starting rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62.4%. Supported by grid orders, it is expected to continue to recover [10] - Alloys: The starting rate of the primary aluminum alloy industry remained stable at 59.8%, showing a stable supply - demand situation. The starting rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises remained stable at 60.6%, and it is expected to remain stable in the short term [10] Inventory - Electrolytic Aluminum: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 61.9 million tons, basically stable since November, about 15% higher than the same period last year, and slightly below the mid - axis level since 2023. The in - plant inventory of electrolytic aluminum is at a low level in recent years, and the outbound volume has decreased significantly since the end of October. The inventory of aluminum rods is 13.62 million tons, about 2% lower than last week and about 31% higher than last year. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by about 1% compared to last week and about 23% compared to last year, remaining at a low level in recent years [10] Profit - Alumina: The average full - cost in the past month was about 2,800 yuan/ton, the spot theoretical profit was about 50 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract theoretical profit was - 70 yuan/ton [11][19] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The current average production cost is about 16,950 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 4,200 yuan/ton (last week it was 4,800 yuan/ton), with a relatively high profit level [11][19] Market Expectation and Outlook - Market Expectation: The strong US dollar and low interest - rate cut expectations at the macro level suppress the aluminum price. The domestic supply is at a high level, the demand has entered the off - season, the inventory support is limited, the capital sentiment is cautious, and the current spot trading is still weak, so the correction may not be over [11] - Outlook: At the end of November, the macro - guidance is slightly weak. The domestic supply is stable, while the demand has further seasonal contraction pressure. The social inventory may slightly increase, and the price is expected to oscillate under pressure. The main 2601 contract is expected to be in the range of 21,000 - 21,700 yuan/ton in the next week [11] 2. Important Industry Link Price Changes - Bauxite: The import price is under pressure. The price of bauxite SI2 - 3% Guinea decreased by 0.69% week - on - week, and the prices of some other types remained stable [12] - Alumina: It has been oscillating downward since mid - August. The price of Henan first - grade alumina decreased by 0.18% week - on - week [12] - Other: Coal prices have been rising since September, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be strong at the end of the year. The prices of some other raw materials such as pre - baked anodes and ice crystals have also changed to varying degrees [12] 3. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - Bauxite: The port inventory of imported bauxite decreased slightly, and it has been fluctuating around the annual high of 2,850 million tons since August. The domestic bauxite inventory is abundant [16] - Alumina: It has been accumulating inventory since the end of May and is currently at a high level in recent years. The inventory of alumina plants and ports decreased slightly this week, while the in - plant inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to accumulate rapidly [16] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The domestic mainstream consumption area inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots remained stable, and the inventory of aluminum rods decreased [16] 4. Supply - Demand Situation - The off - season characteristics of the aluminum processing industry are more obvious this week, with significant structural differentiation in the sector. The primary aluminum alloy has stable supply and demand; the starting rate of aluminum cables has slightly increased supported by grid orders; the traditional demand for aluminum plates and strips is weak; the construction profiles are sluggish, and the demand for packaging foil has weakened; the recycled aluminum is still restricted by the tight raw material supply [25] 5. Futures - Spot Structure - The current spot - end price is under pressure, and the Shanghai aluminum futures price structure is moderately weak [30] 6. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 2,040 yuan/ton (pre - holiday was - 1,840 yuan/ton). The current spread of primary aluminum and alloys is at the mid - axis level in recent years and has a neutral impact on electrolytic aluminum [34][36] 7. Market Fund Situation - LME Aluminum: The net long position of funds is near the high level since April 2022. In the latest period, the net long position increased slightly, and both the long and short camps reduced their positions. Overseas funds still have a positive expectation for the aluminum price [38] - SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum: The net long position of the main force significantly reduced this week, with the long camp reducing positions more than the short camp. The net long position of funds with a financial speculation background continued to reduce positions, and funds with a background of mid - downstream enterprises are in a stalemate between long and short. Overall, the main funds still tend to adjust [41]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：富宝有色） 1、本周市场回顾：本期铝价震荡上行中持续刷新高点 本期国内现货铝价高位下跌后窄幅反弹。截至11月20日，现货A00铝价为21550-21590元/吨，日均价21570元/吨， 较上期下跌340元/吨，跌幅1.55%；较去年同期上涨790元/吨，涨幅3.80%。期内均价21622元/吨，较上期均价下 跌14元/吨，跌幅0.06%。 | 类別 | A00现货 | 上海地区 | 江苏地区 | 山东地区 | 广东地区 | 河南地区 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11/13 | | | 21890—21930 21890—21900 21895—21905 21875—21915 21740—21760 21750—21770 | | | | | 11/20 | | | 21550—21590 21560—21570 21565—21575 21560—21600 21450—21460 21480—21500 | | | | | 周度涨跌值 | -340 | -330 | -330 | -315 | -295 | - ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Global equity market corrections and geopolitical tensions have made the market cautious, leading to significant short - and long - position reductions in Shanghai aluminum and a decline in aluminum prices. However, the relatively low global visible aluminum ingot inventory and supply disruption expectations still strongly support aluminum prices. Despite the downstream moving into the off - season, with price corrections, the domestic inventory accumulation pressure is expected to be low, and aluminum prices may strengthen further after oscillatory adjustments. The operating range of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is expected to be 21,200 - 21,800 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2,750 - 2,850 US dollars/ton [11][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: As of the end of October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.06 million tons, with the monthly industry operating rate remaining stable. The domestic electrolytic aluminum output in October increased by 3.5% month - on - month, and the overseas output was 2.59 million tons, up 3.6% month - on - month. The domestic aluminum water ratio rebounded by 1.4% month - on - month [11]. - Inventory & Spot: As of Thursday, the aluminum ingot inventory was 613,000 tons, down 1,000 tons from last Thursday; the bonded area inventory was 62,000 tons, down 1,000 tons from last week; the aluminum rod inventory was 152,000 tons, up 2,000 tons from last Thursday; the LME global aluminum inventory was 548,000 tons, down 2,000 tons from last week. The domestic East China aluminum ingot spot basis first declined and then rose, and the LME market Cash/3M discount widened to $30.9/ton [11]. - Import & Export: In October 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 248,000 tons, up 1.8% month - on - month and 42.2% year - on - year. The cumulative imports from January to October were 2.205 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.9%. In October, China exported 503,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, and the cumulative exports from January to October were 5.02 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.6%. Recently, the spot import loss of Shanghai aluminum has narrowed [11]. - Demand: According to SMM research, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises remained stable at 62% this week, showing off - season characteristics. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy remained stable, the aluminum cable operating rate rebounded slightly supported by power grid orders, while the operating rates of aluminum plates, strips, profiles, and foils were under pressure, with the overall operating rate being stable but weak [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai aluminum fell 2.3% to 21,340 yuan/ton this week, and LME aluminum fell 1.7% to $2,808/ton. The spread between the first and third - month contracts of Shanghai aluminum narrowed compared with last week [19][21]. - Spot: The East China spot premium rebounded, while the discounts in South China and Central China narrowed. The LME aluminum Cash/3M discount widened [32][38]. 3. Profit and Inventory - Profit: The primary aluminum smelting profit decreased compared with last week but remained at a historical high [43]. - Inventory: Aluminum ingot inventory was 613,000 tons, down 1,000 tons from last Thursday; bonded area inventory was 62,000 tons, down 1,000 tons from last week; aluminum rod inventory was 152,000 tons, up 2,000 tons from last Thursday; LME global aluminum inventory was 548,000 tons, down 2,000 tons from last week and at a low level in the same period of previous years [48][51][57]. 4. Cost Side - Bauxite: Domestic and overseas bauxite prices remained stable [69]. - Alumina: The domestic alumina price decreased by 11 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the import price decreased by $1/ton [72]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost: The anode price and thermal coal price remained flat compared with last week [76]. 5. Supply Side - Alumina: In October, the domestic alumina output was 7.785 million tons, an increase of 39,000 tons from September and a year - on - year increase of 6.8% [82]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of the end of October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.06 million tons, with the monthly industry operating rate remaining stable. The domestic electrolytic aluminum output in October increased by 3.5% month - on - month, and the overseas output was 2.59 million tons, up 3.6% month - on - month. The domestic aluminum water ratio rebounded by 1.4% in October and is expected to decline slightly in November. The electrolytic aluminum output of each province in October increased compared with September [85][88][93]. 6. Demand Side - Downstream Operating Rate: In October, the operating rates of aluminum profiles and aluminum plates, strips, and foils declined month - on - month; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased month - on - month, while the aluminum rod operating rate declined month - on - month; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased [104][107][110]. - Terminal Demand: In November 2025, the production schedules of household air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines all declined compared with the actual production in the same period last year. In October, real estate data remained weak, automobile production and sales were acceptable, and the production schedule of photovoltaic modules was expected to decline slightly [114]. 7. Import and Export - Primary Aluminum: In October 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 248,000 tons, up 1.8% month - on - month and 42.2% year - on - year. The cumulative imports from January to October were 2.205 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.9%. This week, the spot import loss of aluminum ingots widened. In October, aluminum ingot imports mainly came from Russia, Indonesia, India, Australia, etc., with the proportion of imports from Russia dropping to 63% [119][123]. - Unwrought Aluminum and Aluminum Products: In October 2025, China exported 503,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products; the cumulative exports from January to October were 5.02 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.6% [128]. - Recycled Aluminum: In October 2025, the recycled aluminum imports were 158,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons month - on - month; the cumulative imports from January to October were 1.659 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [128]. - Bauxite: In October 2025, China's bauxite imports were 13.766 million tons, with the imported ore accounting for 71.8%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to October were 170.959 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.1% [131]. - Alumina: In October 2025, China exported 176,000 tons of alumina, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. The cumulative alumina exports from January to October were 2.175 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 54.7% [131].

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum (02600) has seen a decline of over 5%, currently trading at HKD 10.58 with a transaction volume of HKD 787 million. Goldman Sachs maintains a bearish outlook on aluminum prices, predicting a drop to USD 2,350 per ton by Q4 2026, with recovery not expected until the early next decade [1][1][1]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs expects the aluminum market to shift to oversupply due to new supply, despite demand benefiting from factors similar to copper and substitution effects. However, aluminum will not face the resource constraints that copper does [1][1][1]. - Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about the aluminum industry's prospects for next year, forecasting moderate oversupply from new supply in Indonesia by 2026. However, potential supply disruption risks and a slower restart of overseas capacity may lead to tighter market conditions than baseline predictions [1][1][1].

小摩则表示，对铝业在明年的前景依然看好。在该行的基本预测中，预计来自印尼的新供应，将在2026 年带来适度的供应过剩，但潜在的供应中断风险，及海外产能重启速度放缓，或令市场供应比基准预测 更为紧张。 中国铝业（601600）(02600)现跌超5%，截至发稿，跌5.03%，报10.58港元，成交额7.87亿港元。 消息面上，高盛最新研报显示，该行维持对铝价的看跌立场，预计2026年四季度铝价将跌至2350美元/ 吨，并认为直到下个十年初期价格才能恢复到当前水平。高盛预计，新增供应推动市场转入过剩，铝需 求虽将受益于与铜类似的需求驱动因素以及替代效应，但铝不会面临铜所遭遇的资源限制问题。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - The finished products are expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center of gravity moving downward and running weakly [1][3] - The aluminum ingot price is expected to remain high in the short - term, with the price facing pressure when rising due to downstream differentiation in the off - season [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with an expected impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. Six short - process steel mills in Anhui, one started to shut down on January 5, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% week - on - week decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [3] - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, hitting a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the winter storage is sluggish this year, providing little price support [3] Aluminum Ingots - Last week, Shanghai aluminum showed a relatively strong performance. The US dollar index fell for two consecutive weeks, and the longest - running government shutdown in US history ended on Thursday, resulting in a lack of key economic data for policy - making [2] - Domestically, the supply of electrolytic aluminum remains stable. Overseas, the resumption of production in Guinea's mines is difficult, and there is an expectation of supply tightening due to the approaching heating season in the north [3] - Last week, the SMM weekly aluminum water ratio was 77.25%, a 0.5 - percentage - point decrease. The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62%. The SMM expects the operating rate of the aluminum downstream processing industry to show a differentiated trend in the short term [3] - On November 13, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 621,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons compared to Monday and 1,000 tons compared to last Thursday. The premium of the US spot aluminum price has reached a record high [3] - There is a strong positive macro - atmosphere, and the expected tightening of overseas supply gives funds the motivation to go long. However, the off - season is coming, and the downstream is weakening, with increased inventory pressure [4]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic aluminum market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract reaching a new annual high of 22,100 yuan/ton, driven by multiple macroeconomic factors and supply constraints [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - Since late October, aluminum prices have shown a fluctuating upward trend, with the average price for October at 21,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.26% and a year-on-year increase of 1.40% [2]. - As of November 10, the average price for domestic A00 aluminum was 21,500 yuan/ton, marking a month-on-month increase of 0.14% and a rise of 690 yuan/ton from the October low, representing a 3.32% increase [2]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Support - Key macroeconomic factors supporting aluminum prices include the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut of 25 basis points, which alleviated global liquidity pressures and improved market risk appetite [3]. - The consensus reached in U.S.-China tariff negotiations, including the reduction of certain aluminum product tariffs, has eased concerns about export restrictions, benefiting aluminum processing enterprises [3]. - The stabilization of energy costs due to a calming geopolitical situation in the Middle East further supports the aluminum industry [3]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - The supply-demand balance is tight, with significant constraints on the supply side, particularly due to transportation limitations in the northwest region during the heating season, leading to reduced aluminum ingot shipments to East China [4]. - The operational capacity of electrolytic aluminum has reached the policy limit of 45 million tons, with limited new capacity additions, maintaining a high operating rate of over 96% [4]. Group 4: Demand Dynamics - The demand side is showing signs of differentiation, with overall demand in October being strong but expected to decline as the industry transitions into the off-season in November [5]. - The construction sector is experiencing reduced activity due to winter conditions, while demand in the aluminum cable sector remains stable, albeit with slower order uptake due to rising aluminum prices [5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The aluminum market is expected to experience a high-level oscillation from November to December, with prices supported by macroeconomic factors but facing downward pressure from declining demand [6][7]. - The projected price range for A00 aluminum is between 20,500 yuan/ton and 22,000 yuan/ton, with potential for new highs in November followed by a gradual weakening towards the end of the month and into December [7].

Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Report's Core View - Due to supply constraints, it is expected that the aluminum price will maintain a rising or oscillatingly strong trend. The strategy is to continue taking long positions in the medium term, with the reference support range for Shanghai Aluminum 2601 being 21,000 - 21,200 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly View and Strategy - **Macro**: In October, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 3.7 trillion yuan, a 0.1% increase. Exports were 2.17 trillion yuan, a 0.8% decrease, and imports were 1.53 trillion yuan, a 1.4% increase for the fifth consecutive month. The US government shutdown led to the non - release of the October non - farm payroll data. Economists expect a 60,000 decrease in non - farm employment and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.5% [5]. - **Supply**: Bauxite mining in northern China has not resumed. Some alumina plants in the region have reduced their operations. A large alumina enterprise in Hebei shut down 2 roasting furnaces on the evening of October 28 and plans to resume gradually on October 31. Alumina inventory is continuously accumulating, while the operating rate and supply of electrolytic aluminum are relatively stable [5]. - **Demand**: Recent electrolytic aluminum consumption has been generally good. The automobile industry is relatively prosperous, and the power grid - related orders are expected to be released rapidly. Overall, domestic demand is expected to continue to improve [5]. - **Inventory**: Last week, LME aluminum futures inventory increased slightly, while domestic social inventory continued to decline slightly and is expected to continue to decrease [5]. - **View**: Supply disturbances have not changed the weak fundamentals of alumina. Due to supply constraints, the aluminum price is expected to maintain a rising or oscillatingly strong trend [5]. - **Strategy**: Continue taking long positions in the medium term, with the reference support range for Shanghai Aluminum 2601 being 21,000 - 21,200 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - Graphs of domestic aluminum spot and futures prices, A00 aluminum ingot spot premium and discount, LME aluminum price trends, and China's aluminum ingot import profit are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [9][13]. 3. Supply and Inventory - **Bauxite**: In September 2025, China imported 1,588 million tons of bauxite, a 38.3% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the import volume was 15,731 million tons, a 32% year - on - year increase. In 2024, China imported 15,876.7 million tons of bauxite, a 12.3% year - on - year increase. Guinea and Australia are the main sources. In September 2025, China's bauxite production was 488.21 million tons, a 2.32% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, the cumulative production was 4,574.32 million tons, with a significant slowdown in production growth. Recent domestic bauxite port inventory has decreased [20][25]. - **Alumina**: In September 2025, China's alumina production was 799.9 million tons, an 8.7% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative production was 6,856.0 million tons, an 8.4% year - on - year increase. From January to September, China exported 200 million tons of alumina, a 61.8% year - on - year increase, with 25 million tons in September, an 82.2% year - on - year increase. As of September 2025, the domestic metallurgical alumina production capacity reached 11,032 million tons, an increase of 630 million tons from the end of last year. More new production capacity is expected to be put into operation from the end of 2025 to Q1 2026. In 2025, there was a large - scale production capacity release, and there are still many projects to be put into operation in 2026 and later. Overseas, there were approximately 500 million tons of new production capacity put into operation, and at least 870 million tons of new production capacity are expected in 2026 [34][35][38]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of September 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,523.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.5 million tons; the operating capacity was 4,444.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 92 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 99.41%, a year - on - year increase of 2.43%. In September 2025, the global primary aluminum production was 6.08 million tons, a 0.9% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the global primary aluminum production was 55.113 million tons. In September 2025, China's primary aluminum production was 3.81 million tons, a 1.8% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative production was 33.97 million tons, a 2.2% year - on - year increase. In September 2025, China imported 246,800 tons of primary aluminum, a 14.36% month - on - month increase and an 80.07% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 1.9618 million tons. As of November 6, 2025, the LME futures inventory was 550,500 tons, and China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 607,000 tons [42][53][62]. 4. Primary Processing and End - Market - **Alloy Ingot**: In September 2025, the aluminum alloy production was 177,600 tons, a 17.1% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative production was 1.4116 million tons, a 15.9% year - on - year increase [68]. - **Aluminum Products**: In September 2025, China's aluminum product production was 590,000 tons, a 1.5% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, the cumulative production was 4.9768 million tons, the same as the previous year [71]. - **Aluminum Import and Export**: In September 2025, China imported 360,000 tons of unforged aluminum and aluminum products, a 35.4% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 3.01 million tons, a 5.7% year - on - year increase. In September, the export volume was 520,000 tons, a 7.3% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, the cumulative export volume was 4.52 million tons, an 8.1% year - on - year decrease [78]. - **Downstream Demand**: The report presents graphs of global aluminum downstream demand structure, green demand forecast, global photovoltaic and wind power installation capacity forecast, global new energy vehicle sales forecast, China's real estate market situation, China's new energy vehicle production, and power engineering investment, but no specific analysis is provided [81][87][92]. 5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Global Supply - Demand Balance**: The report provides global and Chinese electrolytic aluminum supply - demand balance tables from 2021 to 2027. In 2025, overseas alumina had 6.6 million tons of new production capacity (including restarted capacity), with 4 million tons of newly invested capacity. The net increase in production capacity in 2025 was 4.02 million tons. It is expected that in 2025, the global market will maintain a tight - balance situation, with a slight shortage overseas and a slight surplus in China [103][104][105]. - **Industrial Chain Structure**: No specific content is provided.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the global supply and demand for electrolytic aluminum will remain balanced over the next three years, contingent on China's full production and the timely release of new overseas capacities, with any supply disruptions potentially leading to shortages and price increases [1][3] - As of September 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is projected to reach 44.45 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 101.2%, indicating a tight supply situation [1] - Global aluminum supply is expected to grow at rates of 2.4%, 2.0%, and 3.5% from 2026 to 2028, with total supply reaching 76.58 million tons, 78.10 million tons, and 80.81 million tons respectively [1] Group 2 - Aluminum consumption is expected to continue outperforming market expectations, driven by growth in specific applications and the material's lightweight properties penetrating new fields [2] - China's electrolytic aluminum consumption growth is projected at 1.5%, 2.2%, and 2.3% from 2026 to 2028, while overseas consumption is expected to grow at 3.2%, 3.0%, and 3.2% during the same period [2] - Global aluminum consumption is forecasted to reach 76.51 million tons, 78.45 million tons, and 80.49 million tons from 2026 to 2028, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.1%, 2.5%, and 2.6% [2] Group 3 - The supply-demand balance for aluminum is fragile, with profits expected to expand due to rigid supply conditions, and prices may accelerate upward if supply disruptions occur [3] - Profit forecasts for the aluminum industry are adjusted to 5,000, 5,500, and 6,000 yuan per ton for 2026 to 2028, corresponding to aluminum prices of 21,500, 22,000, and 22,500 yuan per ton [3] - The industry is entering a phase of weak supply, high profits, and low capital expenditure, with companies showing increased willingness to distribute dividends, making it a resilient sector during weak consumption cycles [3]