碳酸锂周报 2024 年 8 月 25 日 情绪扰动降温 锂价震荡偏弱 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：20021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 上周回顾：周初受江西某大型锂盐厂旗下锂矿安全生产许 可证到期预期扰动，锂价大幅高开，但价格绝对高位缺乏 政策面及基本面支撑，多头表现较为保守。随之周中又出 某大型盐厂宣布复产，多头避险离场，盘中大幅减仓回落。 但产量恢复需要时间，公司表示8月实际落地产量有限。 回顾来看，上周锂价整体 ...

Report Summary 1. Core View - The lithium carbonate futures rose and then fell, with all related varieties closing down. Although there were many rumors, they did not become the market consensus. The spot price increased, with electric carbon rising by 3,000 to 81,000. Most enterprises remained on the sidelines, but due to the rigid demand of some downstream enterprises and the reluctance of upstream and traders to sell, the spot transaction price of lithium carbonate continued to rise significantly. The price of Australian ore rose to 970, and the price of lithium mica rose to 2,030. The salt plants using purchased lithium spodumene turned profitable by 825, and the production loss of salt plants using purchased lithium mica narrowed to 4,848. The enthusiasm of salt plants to start production was high. In the short term, as the impact of sentiment gradually decreases, the trading focus will return to the fundamentals, and the short - term upward trend of lithium prices will slow down [11]. 2. Section Summaries 2.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The lithium carbonate futures showed a pattern of rising and then falling, and related varieties closed down. The spot price of lithium carbonate increased, with electric carbon rising by 3,000 to 81,000. Market sentiment was mainly one of waiting and seeing, but due to demand and supply - side factors, the transaction price of spot lithium carbonate rose. The prices of Australian ore and lithium mica increased, and the profitability of salt plants improved. In the short term, the upward trend of lithium prices will slow down [11]. 2.2行业要闻 - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association Lithium Industry Branch issued an initiative on the healthy development of the lithium industry, advocating fair competition, rational layout of new production capacity, and stable market supply through long - term cooperation agreements. It also called for increased R & D investment and innovation. The second - phase project of Anhui Xingchuan New Energy's high - power battery was launched, which will improve the new energy vehicle industry chain in Hefei High - tech Zone [14].

2022年4月，宁德时代以8.65亿元竞得该矿探矿权，推断瓷石矿资源量预计达到9.6亿吨，伴生 氧化锂资源量265.68万吨，折合碳酸锂当量约657万吨，成为当时全球最大的单体锂云母矿之 一。 南华期货贵金属新能源研究组负责人夏莹莹向21财经·南财快讯记者表示，宁德时代枧下 窝采矿端停产将直接影响锂矿供给，国内锂资源供应边际将进一步收紧，进而对锂盐供给 量形成一定压制。据测算，此次停产预计影响国内碳酸锂月产量约6000吨左右，占国内月 产量的8.5%左右。 不过，夏莹莹也提醒道，碳酸锂现货高度有限，期货高度跟随市场炒作情绪。短期期货市 场受情绪主导，价格波动易被放大，投资者需警惕持仓风险，切勿过度投机。 记者丨李益文 编辑丨叶映橙 8月11日早盘开盘，碳酸锂期货所有合约均触及涨停，其中主力合约（2511）涨幅8%，现报 81000元/吨。创近三个月来新高。A股锂矿板块同步爆发，截至10：15，江特电机一字涨停， 天齐锂业、盛新锂能涨停，赣锋锂业涨超8%。 | < W | 碳酸锂2511 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | LC ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the market sentiment subsided, lithium prices fell from their highs. The market's focus is on the uncertainty of whether the Jianxiaowo mine will shut down. After the concentrated destocking of warehouse receipts, there is a certain amount of re - inflow, but the current total remains low. In the long term, attention should be paid to the further cost - reduction and production - increase actions of overseas mines [4] - On the supply side, the weekly production continued to slow down, with a weekly decrease of 1,362 tons to 17,268 tons. However, with the price rebound, it is expected that the supply in August will still increase slightly by 3% to 84,200 tons. On the demand side, the lithium consumption of the two major cathode materials in August is expected to increase by 8% month - on - month to 86,000 tons of LCE. In terms of inventory, the social inventory saw its first destocking since the end of May last week, but there is still about 142,000 tons [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Yesterday, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures fell 2.65% to 67,680 yuan/ton. In terms of spot prices, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 71,200 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 69,100 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 65,540 yuan/ton. In terms of warehouse receipts, there was a concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts yesterday, and the inventory increased by 1,840 tons to 14,443 tons [4] - In terms of news, on August 5th, according to Cailian Press, the Australian Resources Minister said that Australia is considering setting a price floor to support key mineral projects; Xinyu High - tech Ecological Environment Bureau released the "Pre - approval Publicity of the Annual Expansion Project of 30,000 Tons of High - Purity Lithium Salt in Zhongkuang Resources (002738) (Jiangxi) Lithium Industry Co., Ltd."; Core's restart research shows that it can reduce costs and increase production, and it also terminated the off - take agreement with Yahua [4] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract decreased by 1,080 yuan/ton to 67,840 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the continuous contract decreased by 1,900 yuan/ton to 67,300 yuan/ton. Among lithium ores, the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) remained unchanged at 1,710 yuan/ton, while the price of phosphorus - lithium - aluminum ore (Li2O: 6% - 7%) decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 5,275 yuan/ton [5][6] - For lithium salts, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 71,200 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 69,100 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 65,540 yuan/ton [6] - In terms of price differences, the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 2,100 yuan/ton, while the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 70 yuan/ton to - 5,660 yuan/ton [6] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and phosphorus - lithium - aluminum ore (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [7][9] - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [10][14] - **Price Differences**: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China - Japan - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide, etc., from 2024 to 2025 [17][18] - **Precursors & Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobalt oxide from 2024 to 2025 [21][26] - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobalt oxide cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [28][31] - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other sectors from December 12, 2024, to July 31, 2025 [33][36] - **Production Costs**: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉 (Li: 5.5% - 6.5%),外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉 (Li: 3.2% - 4.2%),外购锂云母精矿 (Li₂O: 2.5%), and外购锂辉石精矿 (Li₂O: 6%) from 2024 to 2025 [37][38] 3.4 Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has more than a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines [41] - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [42] - Zhu Xi, a science master from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research [42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - On August 4, 2025, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.09% to 68,920 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 71,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 69,250 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 50 yuan/ton to 65,620 yuan/ton. Warehouse receipts were concentrated for cancellation, and inventory increased 5,998 tons to 12,603 tons [3]. - The supply - demand balance in August may further narrow. Weekly production continued to slow down, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,362 tons to 17,268 tons. However, with the price rebound, it is expected that the supply in August will still increase slightly by 3% to 84,200 tons. The lithium consumption of two major cathode materials in August is expected to increase 8% month - on - month to 86,000 tons of LCE. Social inventory has seen its first destocking since the end of May, but there is still about 142,000 tons [3]. - After the market sentiment subsided, lithium prices have fallen from their highs. The market focus is on the uncertainty of whether Jiaxiaowo will stop production. After the concentrated destocking of warehouse receipt inventory, there is a certain re - inflow, but the current total remains low. In the long term, attention should be paid to the further cost - reduction and production - increase actions of overseas mines [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 68,920 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 69,200 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 760 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) remained at 1,085 yuan/ton; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) remained at 1,710 yuan/ton; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 5,350 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 6,280 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) remained at 71,350 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) remained at 69,250 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) dropped 50 yuan/ton to 65,620 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) dropped 50 yuan/ton to 70,770 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) dropped 50 yuan/ton to 60,520 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 8.2 US dollars/kg, down 0.03 US dollars [5]. - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate**: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained at 52,750 yuan/ton [5]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 2,100 yuan/ton; the price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 5,730 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 7,076.1 yuan/ton, down 247 yuan [5]. - **Precursors & Cathode Materials**: The prices of various ternary precursors and cathode materials showed small increases, while the prices of lithium iron phosphate and lithium manganate remained unchanged, and the price of cobalt acid lithium remained unchanged [5]. - **Cells & Batteries**: The prices of various cells and batteries remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and amblygonite from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [9][11][13]. - **Price Spreads**: Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and other price spreads from 2024 to 2025 [16][17][19]. - **Precursors & Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [21][24][27]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][32][33]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other sectors from December 12, 2024, to July 31, 2025 [34][35][37]. - **Production Costs**: Charts present the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2025 [38][39]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a slight increase in the morning session, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.34% to 3528.90 points and a trading volume of 412.1 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.30% to 10905.91 points with a trading volume of 602.9 billion yuan, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.26% to 2275.26 points with a trading volume of 279.6 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The rare earth permanent magnet, lithium mining, coal, and military industries saw significant gains, with notable stocks like Huahong Technology and Shengxin Lithium Energy hitting the daily limit [2] - Conversely, sectors such as gaming, photovoltaic, beauty care, and consumer electronics experienced declines, with Yamaton dropping over 5% [2] Institutional Insights - Hengsheng Qianhai Fund anticipates that the market will continue to exhibit structural trends in the short term, with external uncertainties gradually expanding from tariffs, while domestic policies are expected to remain proactive [4] - Citic Securities highlighted that the stricter compliance checks in the mining sector, particularly regarding lithium resource extraction, could impact domestic lithium supply significantly [4] - The long-term outlook for lithium prices remains strong, supported by a cost range of 60,000 to 70,000 yuan per ton, alongside robust demand and short-term supply disruptions [4] Consumer Market Insights - The Ministry of Commerce announced plans to reduce restrictive measures in the service consumption sector during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, aiming to enhance the quality of service supply [5] - China's retail sales are projected to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5% over the past four years [6] - The share of residents' service consumption expenditure has increased by 3.5 percentage points to 46.1% [6] ETF Market Activity - The launch of 10 technology innovation bond ETFs saw a remarkable increase in scale, with total assets reaching 764.98 billion yuan, marking a growth of 163.86% from the initial issuance [7] - Four of these ETFs surpassed 10 billion yuan in scale, indicating strong market interest and participation [7]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement from Cangge Mining indicates that its subsidiary, Cangge Lithium, has halted production for rectification due to illegal lithium resource mining, reflecting stricter compliance scrutiny in the domestic mining industry [1] Industry Summary - The mining sector in China is experiencing increased regulatory focus on compliance with mining rights, with local governments prioritizing the crackdown on illegal activities [1] - There is a potential risk of compliance issues spilling over to other lithium extraction companies in Qinghai and Yichun, which could lead to production halts and significantly impact domestic lithium resource supply [1] Price Outlook - Long-term lithium prices are expected to have strong cost support at 60,000-70,000 yuan per ton, combined with short-term supply disruptions and robust demand, suggesting that lithium prices may emerge from their bottom range [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Fundamentals: Material factory production increased slightly month-on-month, but downstream receiving was weak, and downstream inventory only increased slightly after excluding exchange warehouse receipts. Sellers actively raised prices, and there was a large difference in the acceptance of high-priced lithium between upstream and downstream. Lithium salt production remained high, and high-frequency output was close to the previous high, and price increases drove upstream复产 [4]. - Cost: During the reporting period, driven by the rise in the futures price, the price of lithium ore strengthened [4]. - Futures: Affected by the low level of exchange warehouse receipts and various market information disturbances, lithium prices mostly rose from low levels but were blocked near new highs. Open interest first increased and then decreased, and the candlestick chart showed a doji structure several times, indicating obvious differences between bulls and bears. The KDJ sensitivity line weakened, with the fast line crossing below the slow line, indicating a weakening expectation [4]. - Later view: The expected end of emotional disturbances is approaching, and lithium prices may回调. As the 07 contract gradually enters the delivery period, the logic of low warehouse receipts and capital behavior may gradually fade, and market sentiment is expected to cool down. The futures price is significantly higher than the spot price, which may stimulate upstream smelters to increase production and hedge, and supply is expected to remain high in the near future. Under the suppression of high lithium prices, downstream receiving willingness is poor, and market transactions were quiet during the reporting period, showing a sharp contrast between hot futures and cold spot markets. The inflated futures price lacks support from the spot market, and a price correction is expected after the emotional cooling [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Imported lithium ore (1.3%-2.2%): The price increased from $110/ton to $113/ton, a change of $3.00 and a change rate of 2.73% [6]. - Imported lithium concentrate (5.5%-6%): The price increased from $644/ton to $650/ton, a change of $6.00 and a change rate of 0.93% [6]. - Domestic lithium concentrate (5.5%-6%): The price increased from $644/ton to $650/ton, a change of $6 and a change rate of 0.93% [6]. - Spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate: It increased from 6.33 million yuan/ton to 6.43 million yuan/ton, a change of 0.10 million yuan and a change rate of 1.58% [6]. - Spot price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate: It decreased from 6.05 million yuan/ton to 0.00 million yuan/ton, a change of -6.05 million yuan and a change rate of -100.00% [6]. - Main contract price of lithium carbonate: It decreased from 6.37 million yuan/ton to 6.29 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.08 million yuan and a change rate of -1.22% [6]. - Battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles): The price remained unchanged at 5.80 million yuan/ton [6]. - Battery-grade lithium hydroxide (fine particles): The price decreased from 6.32 million yuan/ton to 6.30 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.02 million yuan and a change rate of -0.32% [6]. - Total lithium carbonate inventory: It increased from 103,436 tons to 120,032 tons, a change of 16,596 tons and a change rate of 16.04% [6]. - Lithium iron phosphate price: It increased from 3.06 million yuan/ton to 3.20 million yuan/ton, a change of 0.14 million yuan and a change rate of 4.58% [6]. - Lithium cobalt oxide price: It increased from 20.90 million yuan/ton to 21.00 million yuan/ton, a change of 0.10 million yuan and a change rate of 0.48% [6]. - Ternary material price (811): The price remained unchanged at 14.45 million yuan/ton [6]. - Ternary material price (622): The price remained unchanged at 12.65 million yuan/ton [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - Regulatory and delivery: As of July 11, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 11,603 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 64,020 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract 2509 was 322,900 lots [8]. - Supply side: As of July 11, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 18,158 tons, an increase of 465 tons from the previous period. Driven by high prices, some high-cost production capacities have planned to resume production, and the in-production capacities are operating actively, so supply is expected to remain abundant [8]. - Import: In May, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 21,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 25% and a year-on-year decrease of 14%. Among them, 13,400 tons were imported from Chile, a month-on-month decrease of 34%; 6,626 tons were imported from Argentina, a month-on-month decrease of 3%. In June, the shipment volume of lithium carbonate from Chile was about 14,600 barrels, of which about 10,000 tons were shipped to China, a month-on-month increase of 6%. Overall, although the shipment volume of lithium carbonate from Chile to China increased slightly month-on-month, it remained at a low level. In May, the import of lithium ore was about 605,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.9%. The import volume of lithium ore from Australia and South Africa increased significantly, while the import volume from Zimbabwe decreased significantly by 71.7% [9][10]. - Demand: - Downstream cathode materials: As of July 11, the total production of lithium iron phosphate was about 69,684 tons, the operating rate was 61.8%, and the inventory was 39,200 tons, a decrease of 396 tons from the previous period. The total production of ternary materials was about 15,830 tons, the operating rate increased slightly, and the inventory was 13,000 tons, an increase of 100 tons from the previous period. Overall, the production of cathode materials increased month-on-month. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate decreased while its operating rate increased, indicating that the lithium iron phosphate market was slightly stronger than the ternary material market. However, from the perspective of processing fees, there was no obvious improvement in both lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, and the supply-demand contradiction was not prominent, and price fluctuations were more affected by lithium prices [11]. - New energy vehicles: From July 1 to 6, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles nationwide were 135,000, a year-on-year increase of 21% compared with the same period in July last year and a month-on-month decrease of 11%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 56.7%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 6.583 million, a year-on-year increase of 37%. The sales growth rate of new energy vehicles weakened in the first week of July. The shortage of subsidy funds may gradually drag down demand. Although the export of new energy vehicles has improved recently, the expected export to Europe may weaken due to the deadlock in China-EU trade negotiations. The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the United States was finally approved, which will eliminate government subsidies for US residents to purchase new energy vehicles after September 30. The price competition among car companies to stimulate consumption may gradually subside, and the inventory cycle of raw materials and finished products of car companies is expected to shorten, which will suppress the production intensity of vehicle manufacturers. Overall, there is no obvious incremental expectation on the demand side from terminal consumption to inventory management of car companies [12]. - Inventory: As of July 11, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 120,032 tons, an increase of about 9,059 tons from the previous period. Among them, the factory inventory was 34,416 tons, a decrease of about 517 tons from the previous period; the market inventory was 85,616 tons, an increase of about 9,576 tons from the previous period; the exchange inventory was 11,603 tons, a decrease of 9,433 tons from the previous week. Although the spot inventory increased significantly, the increase mainly came from the outflow of exchange warehouse receipts. After subtracting the outflow of warehouse receipts, the spot inventory was relatively stable, indicating that the demand performance was acceptable [13]. This Week's Outlook - The expected end of emotional disturbances is approaching, and lithium prices may be volatile and weak. As the 07 contract gradually enters the delivery period, the logic of low warehouse receipts and capital behavior may gradually fade, and market sentiment is expected to cool down. The futures price is significantly higher than the spot price, which may stimulate upstream smelters to increase production and hedge, and supply is expected to remain high in the near future. Under the suppression of high lithium prices, downstream receiving willingness is poor, and market transactions were quiet during the reporting period, showing a sharp contrast between hot futures and cold spot markets. The inflated futures price lacks support from the spot market, and a price correction is expected after the emotional cooling [14]. Industry News - Derui Lithium is advancing the completion acceptance of its new production capacity, which has not been put into operation yet. The new production capacity will gradually be released according to sales and orders, and the initial production capacity and product types will still focus on lithium-manganese and lithium-iron primary batteries [15]. - Ganfeng Lithium's 20,000-ton lithium carbonate project in Inner Mongolia successfully produced trial products, marking a key progress in the construction of the first county-level complete lithium battery industrial chain in Inner Mongolia [15]. - Premier African Minerals restarted the Zulu lithium project in Zimbabwe after improving the recovery rate and grade of spodumene concentrate [15]. - A lithium ore deposit with 490 million tons of lithium ore was discovered in the Jijiaoshan mining area in Hunan. The project has started the construction of mining, beneficiation, and smelting [15]. Relevant Charts - The report includes charts of lithium carbonate futures prices, battery-grade lithium hydroxide prices, imported lithium concentrate prices, lithium carbonate production, and other related data [17][18][19]

Group 1: Price Trends - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has dropped below 60,000 yuan per ton, reaching 59,900 yuan on June 26, marking a significant decline from previous highs [2] - Lithium prices have decreased sharply throughout the year, with a notable drop from 78,800 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year to 61,200 yuan per ton on May 28, representing a year-on-year decline of 44.97% [3][4] - The current market situation shows a serious oversupply of lithium, with high inventory levels that have not been effectively addressed, limiting the potential for price recovery [6][9] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side has seen a surge in lithium mining projects due to previous high prices, leading to a significant increase in lithium production capacity [3][4] - On the demand side, the growth rate of the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors has slowed, impacting lithium demand. Factors include high electric vehicle prices and inadequate charging infrastructure [4][5] - Argentina, a major lithium resource country, is expected to increase its annual lithium production capacity by 79% to 202,000 tons as new projects come online [5] Group 3: Industry Impact - The decline in lithium prices has directly reduced production costs for battery manufacturers, improving profit margins and allowing for increased investment in research and development [8] - Lower lithium prices are expected to decrease the purchase cost of electric vehicles, potentially stimulating consumer interest and boosting sales in the electric vehicle market [8][9] - The competitive landscape in the electric vehicle market is likely to intensify as more companies enter the sector, driven by the perceived potential of the market [9] Group 4: Future Outlook - Industry experts predict that lithium prices may stabilize between 50,000 to 70,000 yuan per ton in the near term, but the market remains uncertain due to various influencing factors [7] - Long-term demand for lithium is expected to grow steadily as the electric vehicle market continues to expand, although the path to balance supply and demand may be gradual and subject to fluctuations [6][9]

Group 1: Market Trends - Lithium carbonate main contract hit a historical low of 58,400 yuan/ton but rebounded to 61,640 yuan/ton during the day, closing at 60,700 yuan/ton, a 3.06% increase [1] - The spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate averaged 59,900 yuan/ton, while industrial-grade averaged 58,300 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [1] - The trading volume of warehouse receipts decreased to 22,375 lots, down 4,404 lots from the previous day, indicating strong buying intent [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lithium carbonate market remains in a state of oversupply, with abundant circulating sources and low purchasing willingness from downstream material companies [1][2] - Major lithium salt companies maintain firm pricing due to high long-term contract orders, while smaller companies face price reductions due to inventory pressure [2] - The demand for ternary materials is weak, with companies facing losses due to high costs of raw materials [2] Group 3: Future Price Outlook - New Lake Futures suggests that the recent price rebound is unlikely to be sustained, with overall supply pressure remaining high and no significant demand improvement expected [3] - Jinrui Futures indicates that the expectation of oversupply has not changed, with insufficient upward drivers for prices [4] - Dadi Futures warns that without significant supply disruptions, it is hard to believe lithium prices will stop falling or recover [5][6]