1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures main contract declined on December 9, with a trading volume of 512,215 lots (-87,152) and an open interest of 575,421 lots (-17,708). The spot market trading was light, and the basis discount narrowed [1] - On the cost side, the price of spodumene concentrate remained flat, and the price of lepidolite remained flat. On the supply side, the production of lithium carbonate increased last week, the production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased, and the production of lithium carbonate from other raw materials increased. In terms of downstream demand, the production of lithium iron phosphate decreased last week, and the production of ternary materials decreased. In December, the production reduction of lithium carbonate increased, and the production schedule of lithium carbonate decreased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down in November; the 3C shipments weakened; the production growth of energy storage batteries stagnated in December [1] - In terms of inventory, the registered warehouse receipts were 12,920 tons (-200 tons). The smelters and other sectors reduced their inventories, and the downstream increased their inventories. In summary, the news of lithium mine restart was repeated. The weekly production of lithium carbonate was at a high level. The downstream wait - and - see sentiment remained strong. The spot market trading was light, and the demand growth stagnated. In the short term, the fundamentals showed strong supply and weak demand. Under the position limit, the lithium price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] - The trading strategy is to hold short positions [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared with previous days. For example, the near - month contract closed at 92,580 yuan/ton on December 8, down 220 yuan from the previous day [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: On December 9, the trading volume of the lithium carbonate futures main contract was 512,215 lots, a decrease of 87,152 lots, and the open interest was 575,421 lots, a decrease of 17,708 lots [1] Spot Market - **Lithium - related Products**: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different trends. For example, the average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 94,400 yuan/ton, the price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,165 - 1,184 US dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) averaged 1,610 - 1,645 yuan/ton [1] - **Other Battery - related Materials**: The prices of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and other battery - related materials also changed. For example, the average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 105,000 - 105,750 yuan/ton [1] Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, the production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased, and the production of lithium carbonate from other raw materials increased [1] - **Demand**: The production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased last week. In December, the production reduction of lithium carbonate increased, and the production schedule of lithium carbonate decreased. The production of power batteries increased last week. The year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down in November, the 3C shipments weakened, and the production growth of energy storage batteries stagnated in December [1] Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 12,920 tons, a decrease of 200 tons. The smelters and other sectors reduced their inventories, and the downstream increased their inventories [1] News - In November, Chile's copper exports fell to 4.28 billion US dollars, and lithium exports were 167.41 million US dollars [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, market information was noisy, and the resumption expectation of Zhenxiawo Mine was volatile, leading to a wide - range fluctuation of lithium prices. On October 31, rumors of the mine's quick resumption made long - position holders nervous, causing lithium prices to decline with reduced positions. As CATL didn't release a resumption plan, the rumor was unconfirmed, and prices rose again with increased positions at the end of the week. Fundamentally, high - frequency supply reached a new high, but there were bottlenecks in supply growth, inventory continued to decline, and downstream demand for active stockpiling was weak, with only rigid - demand purchases [4]. - In the later stage, the expectation of fundamental improvement continues, and lithium prices will fluctuate widely driven by the resumption expectation of mines. Although there are bottlenecks in supply growth, upstream production enthusiasm is high at current prices. Some capacities are resuming production due to new mining permits, so the total supply will remain at a high level. Material factories' production in November is expected to increase month - on - month, but downstream lithium salt purchasing is cautious, indicating limited market expectations for future lithium price increases. The power terminal will remain strong driven by the policy window, but there is a risk of demand slump at the end of the month when the policy window closes. The fundamental situation will remain warm in the short term. The resumption expectation of CATL's Zhenxiawo Mine may greatly affect market sentiment, leading to wide - range fluctuations in lithium prices [4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data | Indicator | 2025/11/7 | 2025/10/31 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Imported lithium ore (1.3% - 2.2%) | 147 | 150 | - 2.50 | - 1.67% | USD/ton | | Imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) | 904 | 918 | - 14.00 | - 1.53% | USD/ton | | Domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) | 904 | 918 | - 14 | - 1.53% | CNY/ton | | Spot exchange rate: USD to CNY | 7.122 | 7.114 | 0.01 | 0.12% | / | | Battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price | 8.05 | 8.08 | - 0.03 | - 0.35% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Lithium carbonate main contract price | 7.79 | 7.93 | - 0.14 | - 1.79% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Total lithium carbonate inventory | 121140 | 123777 | - 2637 | - 2.13% | ton | | Lithium iron phosphate price | 3.63 | 3.37 | 0.26 | 7.72% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Lithium cobalt oxide price | 36.20 | 36.20 | 0.00 | 0.00% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Ternary material price (811) | 16.45 | 16.45 | 0.00 | 0.00% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Ternary material price (622) | 14.95 | 14.95 | 0.00 | 0.00% | CNY 10,000/ton | [5] Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - **Regulation and Delivery**: As of November 7, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of GZFE was 27332 lots, and the latest matching transaction price was 77,920 CNY/ton. The position scale of the main contract 2601 was 490,900 lots [7]. - **Supply Side**: As of November 7, the weekly lithium carbonate production was 23,465 tons, an increase of 145 tons from the previous period. Although supply growth in Sichuan and Jiangxi was restricted, northern salt - lake capacities resumed production due to new mining permits, and Hunan showed signs of increased production. With more new mining permits approved, supply will remain at a high level. In September, the lithium carbonate import volume was 19,597 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.3% and a year - on - year increase of 20%. The import volume from Chile was about 10,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.5%, accounting for about 55.2%. The import volume from Argentina was 6948 tons, a year - on - year increase of 242.9%, accounting for about 35.5%. The average import price from Chile was about 62,400 CNY/ton, and from Argentina was about 59,100 CNY/ton. In September, the total lithium ore import was about 711,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.8%. The import from Australia was 347,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 64.1%; from Zimbabwe was about 109,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.8%; from Nigeria was about 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.4%. The import from South Africa increased significantly, reaching about 108,700 tons [7]. - **Demand Side**: - **Downstream Cathode Materials**: As of November 7, the total lithium iron phosphate production was about 96,856 tons, with an operating rate of 85.24%, an increase of 7.41 percentage points from the previous period, and inventory of 40,132 tons, a decrease of 541 tons. The total ternary material production was about 19,684 tons, with an operating rate of 51.51%, an increase of 1.31 percentage points from the previous period, and inventory of 12,190 tons, a decrease of 250 tons. In terms of prices, the ternary material price was relatively stable. The price of 5 - series ternary materials increased from 138,900 CNY/ton to 139,100 CNY/ton; the 8 - series price remained stable at 158,100 CNY/ton. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased from 37,200 CNY/ton to 37,150 CNY/ton, and the energy - storage type decreased from 35,500 CNY/ton to 35,350 CNY/ton [8]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: From October 1 - 31, the retail sales of the national new - energy passenger vehicle market were 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 10.27 million, a year - on - year increase of 23%. High - frequency data showed that new - energy vehicle sales rebounded significantly at the end of October due to the policy - driven increase in orders and concentrated deliveries. However, there is a risk of demand slump in December when the policy window closes. Most new - force car companies have announced purchase - tax subsidy policies, but only a few traditional car companies have done so, so demand resilience is at risk [9]. - **Inventory**: As of November 7, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 121,140 tons, a decrease of about 2637 tons from the previous period. Factory inventory was 22,300 tons, a decrease of about 1075 tons; market inventory was 71,508 tons, a decrease of about 1273 tons; and exchange inventory was 27332 lots, a decrease of 289 lots from the previous week [10]. This Week's Outlook The expectation of fundamental improvement continues, and lithium prices will fluctuate widely driven by the resumption expectation of mines. Although there are bottlenecks in supply growth, upstream production enthusiasm is high at current prices. Some capacities are resuming production due to new mining permits, so the total supply will remain at a high level. Material factories' production in November is expected to increase month - on - month, but downstream lithium salt purchasing is cautious, indicating limited market expectations for future lithium price increases. The power terminal will remain strong driven by the policy window, but there is a risk of demand slump at the end of the month when the policy window closes. The fundamental situation will remain warm in the short term. The resumption expectation of CATL's Zhenxiawo Mine may greatly affect market sentiment, leading to wide - range fluctuations in lithium prices [11]. Industry News - A battery - grade lithium carbonate project with an annual output of 80,000 tons in Hunan officially started on October 29. It is an upgrade of the original 40,000 - ton/year plan, and the first - phase 20,000 - ton/year project is expected to be put into production in 2026 [12]. - Haimuxing has successfully completed the full - line process for mass - producing lithium - metal solid - state batteries and has received a 400 - million - CNY equipment order for 2GWh solid - state batteries [12]. - Chuanfa Longmang and Fuling Jinguang will jointly invest in a 175,000 - ton/year high - density lithium iron phosphate project [12]. - Kodal Minerals' Bougouni lithium mine in Mali is operating normally despite the security tensions in the capital [12]. Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts showing the prices, production, and import volumes of lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and related products from 2022 - 2025 [14][16][18][21][23][25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "sideways" rating for lithium carbonate [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices first rose and then fell, with the closing prices of LC2511 and LC2601 showing increases. Lithium hydroxide prices stabilized, and the price spread changed accordingly. The domestic lithium carbonate inventory decreased, but there were market rumors affecting the market sentiment, leading to profit - taking by long positions [1][2][13] - From a fundamental perspective, the demand side is expected to remain strong in November, with a slight increase in production of ternary and lithium iron phosphate cathodes and batteries. There is still room for a slight increase in apparent demand in November, and the monthly inventory reduction is expected to exceed 10,000 tons before the resumption of supply - side projects. However, the inventory reduction is expected to slow down from late November [3][15] - In terms of strategy, the short - term market will focus on the resumption rhythm of Jiangxi mica projects, with increased market volatility. It is recommended to use a range - trading approach. In the medium term, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the demand reaches a phased peak. For arbitrage, the reverse arbitrage of LC2511 - LC2601 has been gradually realized and can be gradually closed, and attention should be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity of LC2601 against more distant contracts [3][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Seasonal Inventory Reduction Accelerates, and Supply - Side Game Intensifies - Lithium salt prices showed a trend of rising first and then falling last week. The closing prices of LC2511 and LC2601 increased by 0.5% and 1.6% respectively, and the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 6.8% and 7.1% respectively. Lithium hydroxide prices stabilized, and the price spread changed [1][13] - The domestic lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 0.3 million tons to 12.7 million tons this week, accelerating the inventory reduction. However, market rumors on Friday led to profit - taking by long positions [2][14] - The demand side is expected to remain strong in November, with a slight increase in production of ternary and lithium iron phosphate cathodes and batteries. There is still room for a slight increase in apparent demand in November, and the monthly inventory reduction is expected to exceed 10,000 tons before the resumption of supply - side projects. The inventory reduction is expected to slow down from late November [3][15] - In terms of strategy, short - term market volatility will increase with the game over the resumption of Jiangxi mica projects. A range - trading approach is recommended. In the medium term, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the demand reaches a phased peak. The reverse arbitrage of LC2511 - LC2601 can be gradually closed, and attention should be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity of LC2601 against more distant contracts [3][16] 3.2 Weekly Industry News Review - Pilbara's lithium spodumene production in Q3 2025 increased by 1.7% quarter - on - quarter, the sales price of spodumene SC6 increased by 19% quarter - on - quarter, and the operating cost per ton decreased by 13% [17] - Dazhong Mining's wholly - owned subsidiary obtained the mining license for the Hunan Jijiaoshan lithium mine, with a lithium ore resource of 489.872 million tons, equivalent to about 3.2443 million tons of lithium carbonate [17] - Albemarle's 16,400 dry tons of 5.21% lithium spodumene concentrate was sold at a price of RMB 7,058 per ton [18] - Imerys is in exclusive negotiations to sell a minority stake in its lithium mine project in central France and is confident of completing the transaction by the end of January [18] 3.3 Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.3.1 Resource End: Spot Quotes of Lithium Concentrate Rise - The spot price of lithium concentrate increased, with the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) rising from $881 per ton to $944 per ton, a 7.2% increase [14] 3.3.2 Lithium Salt: Position Reduction and Price Decline due to News Disturbance - The main contract of lithium carbonate showed an upward trend with increasing positions last week, but there was a significant position reduction of 22,000 lots on Friday, accompanied by a 3.14% decline, with a weekly increase of 1.6% [2][14] 3.3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Ternary and Lithium Cobalt Oxide Remain Strong - The production of ternary and lithium iron phosphate cathodes increased slightly, and the prices of downstream intermediate products such as ternary materials and lithium cobalt oxide showed an upward or stable trend [15][14] 3.3.4 Terminal: The Penetration Rate of New Energy Vehicles Reached 50% in September - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 50% in September, indicating strong terminal demand [41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The core driving logic of lithium carbonate futures prices in the next month will focus on the resumption of production on the supply side and the restocking demand on the demand side. The supply of lithium salts will increase in October due to the capacity release of salt lakes. If the resumption of production at the "Jianxiaowo" lithium mine exceeds market expectations, it will expand the supply scale and push the futures prices into a weak - oscillating channel. On the demand side, downstream lithium - battery material enterprises' demand is expected to increase month - on - month by the end of the year, which will support the futures prices [3]. - The lithium carbonate futures prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 72,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors affecting the lithium carbonate market. Positive factors include policy support for new energy vehicles and energy storage, and possible overseas enterprises' rush - to - export sentiment. Negative factors include the planned resumption of the "Jianxiaowo" lithium mine and the pressure of concentrated warehouse receipt cancellation in November [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - **Price and Volatility**: The strong support level for the lithium carbonate LC2601 contract is 72,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.4% and a historical percentile of 14.9% over three years [2]. - **Contract Data**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 75,980 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan (0.37%) daily and 3,300 yuan (4.54%) weekly. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts have different changes [8]. - **Spread Data**: For example, LC2511 - LC2512 is - 340 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 160 yuan (88.89%) and a weekly increase of 220 yuan (183.33%) [8]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average daily prices of different types of lithium ores, such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and amblygonite, have different daily and weekly changes. For instance, lithium mica with Li2O:2 - 2.5% has an average price of 1,845 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan (1.1%) daily and 120 yuan (6.96%) weekly [20]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Prices**: Industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate, as well as different types of lithium hydroxide, have their own price changes. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 71,850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan (0.14%) daily and 1,100 yuan (1.55%) weekly [23]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spreads**: The spreads between electric carbon and industrial carbon, electric hydrogen and electric carbon, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in Japan and South Korea and domestic prices have different changes [26]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The basis of the lithium carbonate main continuous contract has its own historical trend. The brand - based basis quotes of different lithium carbonate producers also vary, such as the basis of Tianqi Lithium being 300 yuan for the LC2507 contract [30][31]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 29,892, a decrease of 813 from the previous day. Different warehouses have different changes in warehouse receipt quantities [34]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - **Production Profit**: The production profit of lithium carbonate from外购 lithium ore, including lithium spodumene and lithium mica, has its own trends. The import profit of lithium carbonate also has a certain pattern [37][38]. 3.5 Lithium - Battery Enterprise Risk Management Strategies - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises worried about rising procurement costs, they can use futures and options. For example, they can buy corresponding futures contracts with an 80% hedging ratio at 70,000 - 73,000 yuan and sell put options with a 20% hedging ratio [2]. - **Sales Management**: To prevent the reduction of sales profits due to price drops, enterprises can sell corresponding futures contracts and use option combinations, such as buying put options and selling call options [2]. - **Inventory Management**: Enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventory can short futures contracts with a 40% hedging ratio at 80,000 - 83,000 yuan and sell call options with a 20% hedging ratio [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The core contradiction affecting the lithium carbonate futures price stems from the tug - of - war between supply - side expected changes and demand - side peak - season support. The resumption of production at the Jianxiaowo lithium mine under CATL is a key variable. The supply - side dynamics have led to market anticipation of future price declines, while the demand side provides strong support [3]. - The resumption of production at the Jianxiaowo lithium mine is uncertain. Before September 30, the lithium carbonate futures price is likely to remain stable. After that, price fluctuations will depend on "demand fulfillment strength". It is expected that until National Day, the lithium carbonate futures price will fluctuate between 68,000 - 76,000 yuan/ton [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include potential mine - end production halts in Jiangxi and new policies supporting downstream demand. Bearish factors include the risk of insufficient restocking demand during the peak season and the potential resumption of production at the Jianxiaowo lithium mine [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections Futures Data - **Price Prediction**: The strong pressure level for the lithium carbonate main contract is 80,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.0% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 65.9% [2]. - **Contract Data**: For the main contract, the closing price is 73,640 yuan/ton (up 0.63% daily, 4.13% weekly), trading volume is 343,863 lots (down 31.26% daily, 54.24% weekly), and open interest is 294,624 lots (down 1.93% daily, 13.55% weekly). Similar data are provided for the weighted contract and other contract spreads [9][10]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts are 39,234 lots, up 0.0106 daily and 0.0297 weekly [10]. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore**: Different types of lithium ore have varying price changes. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,815 yuan/ton (stable daily, 0% weekly), and lithium辉石 (Li2O: 6% from Australia CIF) is 825 US dollars/ton (up 0.61% daily, 2.48% weekly) [20]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium**: Industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide have different price movements. For instance, the industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 70,900 yuan/ton (up 0.42% daily, down 0.42% weekly) [24]. - **Price Spreads**: The electric - carbon to industrial - carbon price spread is 2,250 yuan/ton (stable), the electric - hydrogen to electric - carbon spread is 5,820 yuan/ton (down 5.67% daily, 6.43% weekly), and the battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF Japan and South Korea to domestic spread is - 7,602.85 yuan/ton (up 4.90% daily, 11.72% weekly) [27]. - **Downstream Products**: Various downstream lithium - related products such as phosphoric (manganese) iron lithium, ternary materials, and electrolytes also have their own price changes. For example, the average price of phosphoric iron lithium (power - type) is 33,540 yuan/ton (up 0.21% daily) [29]. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The main - continuous basis of lithium carbonate and brand - specific basis quotes are presented. For example, the basis quotes of some well - known lithium companies like Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium are provided, with values ranging from - 1,100 to 300 yuan/ton for different specifications and contracts [31][32]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 39,234 lots, an increase of 410 lots from the previous day. Different warehouses show different changes in warehouse receipt quantities [35]. Cost and Profit - **Production Profit**: The production profit from purchasing lithium ore to produce lithium carbonate is presented, including from purchasing lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%) and lithium辉石 concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) [39]. - **Import Profit**: The lithium carbonate import profit is also shown, although specific details are not fully elaborated in the given text [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Lithium mica extraction of lithium has changed from a previous contraction to an expansion expectation, which is expected to trigger bearish sentiment in the market, and the futures price may be weak in the short term [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compound Prices - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72,850 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan/ton [1] - The average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 70,600 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan/ton [1] Lithium Ore Prices - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 844 dollars, down 5 dollars [1] - The price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1,075 yuan, down 40 yuan [2] - The price of lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,775 yuan, down 40 yuan [2] - The price of amblygonite (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 5,770 yuan, down 230 yuan [2] - The price of amblygonite (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 6,845 yuan, down 205 yuan [2] Lithium Futures Prices - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2509 is 71,020 yuan/ton, up 1.81% [1] - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2510 is 70,860 yuan/ton, up 1.64% [1] - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2511 is 71,000 yuan/ton, up 1.25% [1] - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2512 is 71,300 yuan/ton, up 1.57% [1] - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2601 is 71,280 yuan/ton, up 1.48% [1] Positive Electrode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,470 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 145,900 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 118,750 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 123,550 yuan/ton [2] Price Differences - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 yuan/ton [2] - The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 1,850 yuan/ton, down 880 yuan [2] - The price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 140 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] - The price difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 440 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 138,512 tons, down 1,580 tons [2] - The smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 36,213 tons, down 3,262 tons [2] - The downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 58,279 tons, up 3,072 tons [2] - The other inventory (weekly, tons) is 44,020 tons, down 1,390 tons [2] - The registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 38,391 tons, up 290 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 73,549 yuan, and the profit is - 1,761 yuan [3] - The cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 77,368 yuan, and the profit is - 7,563 yuan [3] Industry News - Ningde Times' subsidiary is discussing the resumption of production of Shixiawo lithium mine, aiming to resume production in November, but the actual situation is yet to be determined [3] - Six departments jointly issued a notice to carry out a 3 - month special rectification action on network chaos in the automobile industry [3]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Lithium mica extraction of lithium has changed from a contraction to an expansion expectation, which is expected to stimulate bearish sentiment in the market, and the futures price may be weak in the short term [3] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,450 yuan, down 1,150 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,200 yuan, down 1,150 yuan [1] - The closing prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts 2509, 2510, 2511, 2512, and 2601 are 70,300 yuan (-5.33%), 70,560 yuan (-5.29%), 70,720 yuan (-4.87%), 70,880 yuan (-4.37%), and 70,800 yuan (-4.81%) respectively [1] Lithium Ore - The price of spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 849 yuan, down 30 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1,115 yuan, down 42.5 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,815 yuan, down 50 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li₂O: 6% - 7%) is 6,000 yuan, down 350 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li₂O: 7% - 8%) is 7,050 yuan, down 300 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,620 yuan, down 275 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 145,900 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 118,750 yuan, down 125 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 123,550 yuan, down 75 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 yuan; the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 2,730 yuan, up 1,030 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 160 yuan, up 20 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 320 yuan, down 160 yuan [2] Inventory - The total weekly inventory is 140,092 tons, down 1,044 tons; the weekly inventory of smelters is 39,475 tons, down 3,861 tons; the weekly inventory of downstream is 55,207 tons, up 2,407 tons; the weekly inventory of others is 45,410 tons, up 410 tons; the daily registered warehouse receipts are 38,101 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate externally is 73,889 yuan, and the profit is - 1,507 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 77,715 yuan, and the profit is - 7,321 yuan [3] Industry News - Ningde Times' subsidiary is promoting the resumption of production of the Shixiawo lithium mine and aims to complete the resumption in November this year [3] - Six departments jointly issued a notice to carry out a three - month special rectification action on network chaos in the automotive industry [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On September 10, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated at a low level. The spot market was active in low - price point pricing, and the basis premium widened. Considering the cost, supply, demand, and inventory aspects, short - term supply and demand are both strong. With the active resumption of lithium mines, the expectation of supply contraction weakens, and the lithium carbonate price is expected to decline in a fluctuating manner. The trading strategy suggests shorting on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 10, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared to the previous day, with decreases of 2,520 yuan/ton, 2,160 yuan/ton, 2,000 yuan/ton, and 2,000 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume was 751,480 hands (+159,805), and the open interest was 340,814 hands (-10,526) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The average prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium ore decreased. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) decreased by 1,150 yuan/ton to 73,450 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory Data**: The registered warehouse receipt was 38,101 tons, and the social inventory decreased. The inventory of smelters decreased, while the inventory of downstream and other sectors increased. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 1,044 tons to 140,092 tons compared to the previous week [1]. Industry News - **Project Progress**: Australia's Galan Lithium company's Hombre Muerto West (HMW) project in Argentina made significant progress in the first - phase construction, completing the design of the 4th pond, which can support an annual operation of 400 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent. The project aims to reach an annual production of 21,000 tons in 2026, 40,000 tons in 2028, and potentially 60,000 tons in 2030 [1]. - **Export Data**: In August, Brazilian lithium ore exports decreased by more than one - third year - on - year and nearly 43% month - on - month. The export decline was mainly due to the inactivity of Brazil's largest lithium ore exporter, Sigma Lithium [1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, with small increases in the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials. The resumption of lithium mines is actively advancing, weakening the expectation of supply contraction [1]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, while the production of ternary materials decreased. In September, the production of lithium manganate increased, and the production of power batteries increased. In August, the year - on - year growth of new energy vehicle production slowed down, 3C shipments were average, and the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in September [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - On September 10, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated at a low level. The spot market had active low - price point pricing, and the basis premium expanded. Considering factors such as cost, supply, demand, and inventory, with short - term supply and demand both strong and the weakening expectation of supply contraction due to the active resumption of lithium mines, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to decline with fluctuations. It is recommended to go short on rallies [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On September 10, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared to the previous day, with the near - month contract closing at 70,300 yuan/ton, down 2,520 yuan. The trading volume was 751,480 lots (+159,805), and the open interest was 340,814 lots (-10,526) [1]. Spot Market - The average prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and ternary precursors showed different degrees of change on September 10. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 73,450 yuan/ton, down 1,150 yuan [1]. Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 38,101 tons. The social inventory decreased, the smelter inventory decreased, while the downstream and other inventories increased. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 1,044 tons compared to the previous week [1]. Industry News - Australia's Galan Lithium company's Hombre Muerto West (HMW) project in Argentina made significant progress in the first - phase construction, with the design of the 4th pond completed. The project has a phased development plan, aiming for an annual production of 21,000 tons of LCE in 2026, 40,000 tons in 2028, and potentially 60,000 tons in 2030 [1]. - In August, Brazilian lithium spodumene exports decreased by more than one - third year - on - year and nearly 43% month - on - month. The suspension of shipments by the largest producer, Sigma Lithium, was a major factor [1].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the upcoming resumption of operations at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine by CATL, which is causing significant fluctuations in the lithium carbonate market [1][2]. - On September 10, the domestic lithium carbonate futures contract opened at 69,000 yuan/ton, close to the limit down price of 68,400 yuan/ton, and closed with a decline of 4.87% [1]. - Lithium companies in the A-share market experienced substantial stock price drops, with Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium both opening nearly 5% lower and closing down 5% and 3.78% respectively [1]. Group 2 - The Jiangxiawo mine is the largest lithium mica mining area in the Yichun region, and its resumption is seen as exceeding market expectations, with some industry insiders expressing skepticism about the timeline [2][3]. - A meeting was held by Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., a subsidiary of CATL, to expedite the resumption of the Jiangxiawo lithium mine, indicating a proactive approach to returning to production [1][2]. - The resumption of the Jiangxiawo mine is expected to alleviate supply disruptions and shift the market focus back to fundamental factors [3].