Group 1 - The rapid advancement of AI technology, exemplified by the release of GPT-5, contrasts with the slow adaptation in real-world applications, highlighting significant barriers to practical implementation [2][3][5] - The quality of official economic data in the U.S. is deteriorating, which raises concerns about the reliability of metrics that influence critical economic decisions such as interest rates and social security [5][9] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data collection methods have become increasingly reliant on estimations, with 35% of the data being approximated rather than directly collected, indicating potential inaccuracies in economic reporting [6][8][9] Group 2 - The recent non-farm payroll (NFP) report showed a disappointing job growth of only 73,000 positions in July, with significant downward revisions for previous months, marking one of the worst performances since the pandemic [9][10] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) continues to use outdated methods for data collection, which introduces various uncontrollable factors that can skew results, such as response rates and the accuracy of reporting by businesses [11] - There is a growing trend in the U.K. towards automated data collection for CPI, utilizing supermarket scanner data to enhance accuracy and coverage, suggesting a potential path forward for improving economic data collection methods [15]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and the lack of indications for potential rate cuts have diminished the appeal of gold, especially in light of strong U.S. economic data [1] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is crucial, with expectations of a 109,000 increase in July employment, but Standard Chartered Bank warns that the downside risks to employment figures are significantly higher than anticipated [1] - A weak employment report could accelerate expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and deepen the decline of the U.S. dollar, leading to broader market impacts [1] Group 2 - The volatility surrounding non-farm payroll data presents opportunities for traders to capitalize on price fluctuations, allowing for both upward and downward positioning [2] - The expert team at the company provides insights into the implications of employment data, such as rising unemployment rates and slowing wage growth, which could affect inflation trends [2] - Each non-farm payroll release serves as a critical moment for market logic re-evaluation and a test of traders' comprehensive skills [2]

Core Insights - Federal Reserve official Kashkari indicates that both the non-farm payroll report and ADP employment data reflect a softening labor market in the United States [1] Group 1 - The labor market in the U.S. is showing signs of weakness as indicated by recent employment reports [1]

Core Insights - The US dollar against the Japanese yen fell by 2.23% to 147.36 yen, with a weekly decline of 0.21% [1] - The trading range for the dollar-yen pair was between 150.92 and 147.30 yen during the period from July 28 to August 1 [1] - The euro against the yen decreased by 0.70% to 170.88 yen, with a cumulative weekly drop of 1.49% [1] - The British pound against the yen dropped by 1.66% to 195.786 yen, with a weekly decline of 1.40% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The non-farm payroll report indicates a significant downward revision of previous data, suggesting a stagnation in the labor market, which may lead to a reconsideration of the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates [1] Group 1 - Brian Jacobsen, Chief Economist at Annex Wealth Management, suggests that if Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell had anticipated the current non-farm data, he might have opposed the decision to keep rates unchanged [1] - The non-farm employment report shows a stark reality with no embellishments, highlighting the challenges in the labor market [1] - Historical patterns indicate that the Federal Reserve made a mistake last year by not lowering rates in July, which led to an urgent rate cut in the following month [1] Group 2 - There is a concern that the Federal Reserve may repeat past mistakes by failing to adjust rates in response to the current labor market conditions [1]

格隆汇8月1日｜美元正迈向近三年来最强劲的单周表现，在美国总统特朗普对数十个贸易伙伴实施新关 税税率后，周五继续保持上涨势头。本月美元走强很大程度上源于投资者的判断：特朗普关税既未破坏 经济，也未大幅推升通胀。尽管特朗普施压美联储主席鲍威尔降息，但美联储已表态不急于行动。IG 策略师Chris Beauchamp指出，在这种假设下，周五的非农就业报告可能不会产生太大影响，即便就业 数据疲弱引发美元等资产抛售。"美国经济基本面尚可，虽非最佳状态，关税只会造成轻微伤害。市场 短期可能面临抛压，但这只是资金暂时离场观望的借口，"Beauchamp表示，"除非9月前密集出现极其 糟糕的数据，否则很难重燃当月降息预期。" 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Market Overview - The US stock market closed lower, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq retreating from historical highs as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy statement and reacted to disappointing corporate earnings [1][2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 204.57 points to 44,632.99, a decrease of 0.46%; the S&P 500 dropped 18.91 points to 6,370.86, down 0.30%; and the Nasdaq Composite declined by 80.29 points to 21,098.29, a drop of 0.38% [1] US-China Economic Relations - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen held constructive talks in Stockholm, focusing on US-China economic relations and macroeconomic policies [2] - Both sides emphasized the importance of a stable and healthy economic relationship, which is beneficial for their development goals and global economic stability [2] Corporate Earnings Performance - UnitedHealth reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $4.08, below the expected $4.59, and lowered its full-year EPS forecast to at least $16, causing its stock to drop by 7.5% [2] - Boeing's Q2 revenue was $22.75 billion, exceeding expectations, but reported a core EPS loss of $1.24, leading to a 4.4% decline in its stock [3] - Merck's Q2 sales were $15.81 billion, slightly above expectations, but its adjusted EPS of $2.13 was down year-over-year, resulting in a 1.7% stock decline [3] - UPS's stock plummeted by 10.6% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.55, slightly below expectations, and failing to provide full-year guidance [3] - Procter & Gamble's Q4 sales were $20.89 billion, with core EPS of $1.48, both slightly above expectations, but its growth forecast for FY2026 was below market expectations [3] - Novo Nordisk's stock fell approximately 22% after lowering its sales and profit outlook for FY2025 due to poor performance of its weight-loss drug Wegovy [4] Economic Data - The US trade deficit narrowed to $86 billion in June, a decrease of 10.8%, with imports down by 4.2% [4] - Job openings in the US fell to 7.44 million, below the expected 7.5 million, indicating stable labor demand [5] - Consumer confidence in the US rose in July, with the index increasing to 97.2, slightly above expectations [6] Upcoming Events - Investors are focused on the upcoming non-farm payroll report, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates [7] - Major tech companies, including Meta, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon, are set to release earnings this week, which are anticipated to significantly impact overall market trends [4]

Core Insights - The overall non-farm payroll report is considered good data, indicating a positive employment trend [1] Employment Trends - Employment trends are reported to be strong, reflecting a healthy labor market [1]

白宫经济顾问委员会主席Miran：非农就业报告驳斥了批评者所宣扬的"悲观和无望"。呼吁关注自特朗 普上任以来推动就业增长的本土出生的美国人，而不是外国出生的工人。 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the upcoming release of key economic indicators, including the US non-farm payroll report for June, the US trade balance for May, and the initial jobless claims for the week ending June 28 [1] - Additionally, it mentions the Canadian trade balance for May, indicating a focus on both US and Canadian economic data [1]