毫无疑问，重返白宫的特朗普对于最新数据显示过去三个月非农就业增长极度疲软感到愤怒，以至于他怀疑数据造假，直接解雇美国劳工部统计局(BLS)局 长。但是，投资者们在特朗普再度当选美国总统的"特朗普2.0时代"需要时时刻刻系好安全带，因为非农统计数据疲软可能将成为新常态——这主要归功于 特朗普自己的移民政策以及民众们对于联邦政府信任程度愈发低迷。 5月份，美国雇主们仅新增了7.3万个非农就业岗位，过去三个月的平均就业增长仅为疲弱的35,000个。作为对比，在拜登政府领导的整个2024年期间，雇主 们平均每月新增16.8万个就业岗位。 在一些经济学家看来，华尔街顶级交易员们对于特朗普政府高呼"数据被操纵"以及直接下场解雇劳工统计局(BLS)局长的连环操作充斥着质疑与不满情绪， 特朗普政府这些举动可能重创金融市场信心。"不再在意非农初值，而是等待非农修正值出炉再判断市场交易局势"这一前所未有的风潮可能在未来一段时 间成为攸关股债汇三市交易的重要主题。 数据真的被操作? 根据8月1日发布的就业报告，BLS将5月和6月的非农就业合计下修近 26 万人。这是自2020年新冠疫情最严重时期以来两个月合计最大幅度的下修，彻底改 ...

美联储巴尔金：利润压力让制造业处境艰难。4.2%的失业率水平并不糟糕。相比修正值，原始（发布 的非农）就业数据更加让人感到惊讶。随着婴儿潮一代退出就业市场，开始看到人口（统计）悬崖。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% during the meeting on July 30, 2025, despite increasing pressure for a rate cut [2][3] - The shift towards a dovish stance among Federal Reserve officials has become more pronounced, with predictions of potential rate cuts in September [2][3][4] - The disappointing non-farm payroll data for July, which showed only 73,000 new jobs added compared to the expected 115,000, has raised concerns about the strength of the U.S. economy [3][4] Group 2 - President Trump has intensified pressure on the Federal Reserve, including the dismissal of the Labor Department's statistics chief, which has contributed to market uncertainty regarding economic prospects [4][5] - The appointment of Stephen Milan, a close Trump ally, to the Federal Reserve Board is expected to influence the Fed's decision-making process, potentially increasing the likelihood of rate cuts [6][7] - The anticipated rate cuts may benefit traditional industries with high debt levels, such as real estate, but the overall impact remains uncertain due to conflicting economic policies [8][9]

来源：第一财经 （作者为苏商银行特约研究员武泽伟） 2025年8月1日，美国劳工统计局公布的7月非农就业数据引发全球市场震动，新增非农就业仅为7.3万 人，远低于预期的11万人。 更令市场震惊的是，美国5月和6月数据被大幅下修25.8万人，修正幅度将近90%，为自2020年5月以来 的单次最大幅度下修。这一罕见调整迅速点燃"数据造假"争议，特朗普借机解雇劳工统计局局长并再度 喊话施压美联储降息。 作为反映美国经济状况和制定宏观政策的最重要依据，非农统计数据出现如此显著偏差，不仅令市场严 重质疑劳工统计局数据的有效性和可靠性，在这一过程中，白宫等政治力量深度介入劳工统计局、美联 储等技术官僚主导的独立领域，同样引发市场对未来统计数据、货币政策可能受政治诉求影响的高度警 惕。 为何近期美国非农就业数据出现大幅下修？ 美国劳工部表示，5月和6月数据之所以出现大幅下修，一方面源于初始数据发布后额外调查结果的收 集，另一方面则是因为季节性调整因子重新计算的影响。 首先，理解额外调查结果导致数据修订的原因。非农就业数据基于劳工统计局每月向约12.1万家企业及 政府机构开展调查所得，经汇总估算得出，以反映美国就业状况。每月 ...

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley reports a significant downward revision of 258,000 jobs, the largest since 1979, which is 4-5 times the normal adjustment range [1][2][5] - The analysis indicates that current employment data holds more predictive power regarding economic trends than historical revisions, maintaining the expectation of no interest rate cuts until 2025 [1][9] Employment Data Revision - The July employment report revealed unexpected large downward revisions for the previous two months: June's non-farm employment was revised from 147,000 to only 14,000, a reduction of 133,000; May's data was adjusted from 144,000 to 19,000, a drop of 125,000, totaling a net revision of 258,000 [2][3] - Historically, from March 1979 to July 2025, the average net revision has been an upward adjustment of 1,200 jobs, making this downward revision the largest in 46 years when excluding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic [3] Statistical Analysis - The average absolute value of historical revisions is 56,000 jobs, with a standard deviation of 61,000; thus, the 258,000 job revision is statistically significant and considered an outlier [5] - Using a Probit regression model, Morgan Stanley found that while the large downward revision correlates with an increased recession probability, the effect is limited, raising the likelihood of recession by only 9 percentage points [9] Current Employment Signals - The July report showed an addition of 73,000 jobs, which is deemed more critical than the previous downward revisions; the current employment data is viewed as a stronger indicator of economic health [9] - Other indicators from the July report, such as moderate wage growth, slight increases in hours worked, and low unemployment rates, suggest that these current signals are more relevant than the historical downward adjustments [9] - Despite acknowledging that the downward revisions indicate a faster-than-expected slowdown in labor demand, Morgan Stanley maintains its forecast of no interest rate cuts through 2025, suggesting that recession risks remain elevated but not at a level that would alter the overall economic outlook [9]

特朗普表示，非农就业数据是由前美国总统拜登任命的官员编制的，非农就业数据被操纵，目的是让他看起来很糟糕，劳工统计局对近期数据的修订是“彻头彻尾的骗局”。特朗普称，已指示团队立即解雇这位拜登的政治任命官员。这一官员将由一位更有能力、更有资历的人取代。这类重要的数据必须公平、准确，不能被用于政治操纵。特朗普说，对于下一任劳工统计局（BLS）局长，有许多的人选，脑子里有三个人选，要求下一任BLS局长是一个“诚实的人”。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):美国劳工统计局：5月份非农新增就业人数从14.4万人修正至1.9万人；6月份非农新增就业人数从14.7万人修正至1.4万人。修正后，5月和6月新增就业人数合计较修正前低25.8万人。 ...

美国总统特朗普：今天的非农就业数据被操纵，目的是让我看起来很糟糕。劳工统计局对近期数据的修 订是"彻头彻尾的骗局"。美联储主席鲍威尔也没有比"被操纵的"就业数据好到哪里去。 ...

美国总统特朗普：今天的非农就业数据被操纵，目的是让我看起来很糟糕。 ...

（注：根据美国劳工统计局周五发布的报告，7月非农就业人数增加7.3万人，此前两个月的数据被大幅 下修了近26万人。过去三个月，非农就业人数平均仅增长了3.5万人，为新冠疫情以来最糟。） 美国总统特朗普表示，就业数据由前总统拜登任命的官员编制的。指示团队解雇劳工统计局局长。需要 准确的就业数据。美联储主席鲍威尔也应该"退休"。 ...

美联储官员博斯蒂克表示，非农就业数据有重要意义，还没准备好提高对2025年降息前景的预期。 ...