Core Viewpoint - The gold and silver markets have reached historical highs driven by risk aversion, with London gold rising from a low of $3947 to a peak of $4179, marking a cumulative increase of approximately 5.8% [1] - London silver has also shown strength, surpassing its previous historical high of $49.79, driven by a crisis of confidence in the US dollar due to aggressive policies from the Trump administration [3] Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - London gold has experienced a significant price increase, with expectations of breaking the $4200 mark [1] - The upward trend in gold prices is attributed to a loss of confidence in the US dollar, exacerbated by high tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which have negatively impacted global economic potential [3] Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - London silver has consistently closed higher from October 8 to 13, reaching a peak of $53.48, thus achieving a new historical high alongside gold [3] - The current performance of silver indicates a strong market sentiment, reflecting a broader trend of investors seeking safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainty [3] Group 3: US Dollar and Economic Indicators - The US dollar index is currently at 99.36, showing signs of recovery after a decline earlier in the year, but the overall economic outlook remains challenging due to poor non-farm employment data [5] - The Federal Reserve's decision to restart interest rate cuts, with a 25 basis point reduction in September, is a response to a weak labor market, while inflation remains high, creating a complex economic environment [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis - London gold is in a strong upward trend, with the 10-day moving average serving as a key indicator of market strength; a drop below this average could signal a potential correction [7] - Given the significant prior gains, there is a possibility of profit-taking, which may lead to a deeper market correction [7]

Core Viewpoint - The high tariffs imposed by the U.S. government are expected to generate significant revenue, but the actual burden falls on American importers and consumers, leading to greater economic harm than benefit, described as "picking up sesame seeds while losing watermelons" [1][2]. Economic Impact - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce stated that with the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs," the government anticipates monthly tariff revenues of at least $50 billion, with $30 billion already collected in the previous month [1]. - The average effective tariff rate in the U.S. has reached 18.6%, the highest since 1933, with tariffs expected to raise consumer prices by 1.8%, costing households approximately $2,400 [2]. - The tariffs are projected to decrease U.S. GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points over the next two years and increase the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points by the end of this year [2]. Consumer Burden - Approximately 60% of the costs associated with high tariffs are expected to be passed on to consumers, significantly impacting their purchasing power [3]. - The increase in tariffs is leading to higher prices for essential goods, with clothing prices expected to rise by 37% and footwear by 39% in the short term [2]. Business Environment - Many U.S. businesses reliant on imports are facing challenges due to increased costs and disrupted supply chains, contradicting the government's belief that tariffs would boost domestic manufacturing [3][4]. - The trade deficit has surged as importers stockpiled goods ahead of tariff implementation, indicating a negative impact on the overall economy [4].

Core Viewpoint - The high tariffs imposed by the U.S. government are expected to generate significant revenue, but the actual economic impact is detrimental, leading to a situation described as "picking up sesame seeds while losing watermelons" [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The average effective tariff rate in the U.S. has reached 18.6%, the highest since 1933, with a projected short-term price increase of 1.8%, costing households approximately $2,400 [2]. - The tariffs are expected to decrease the U.S. GDP growth rate by 0.5 percentage points over the next two years and increase the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points by the end of this year [2]. - Approximately 60% of the costs associated with high tariffs will be passed on to consumers, significantly impacting their purchasing power [3]. Group 2: Industry Reactions - Many U.S. businesses reliant on imports are being adversely affected by the tariffs, leading to increased costs and disrupted supply chains [3][4]. - The tariffs have caused a surge in the trade deficit as importers stockpiled goods before the tariffs took effect, indicating a negative trend in trade dynamics [4]. - The belief that tariffs will boost U.S. manufacturing is challenged, as they are instead causing pain for manufacturers due to increased raw material costs [3].

Group 1 - The article discusses the irreconcilable conflict between Trump's policies aimed at revitalizing American manufacturing and reducing trade deficits, and the long-term bullish outlook for U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar that Wall Street anticipates [3][41] - Trump's imposition of high tariffs has led to significant declines in U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar, marking the worst performance for these assets compared to previous presidents [4][9] - Despite the increasing trade deficit, U.S. households and businesses have seen their wealth rise, indicating that the U.S. has been a major beneficiary of global trade [6][18] Group 2 - The article highlights that Trump's second term has already seen five instances of simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, a stark contrast to previous administrations [7][9] - The long-term decline of U.S. bonds is attributed to rising government debt and the resurgence of inflation, exacerbated by Trump's tariff policies [11][12] - The article emphasizes that Trump's goal of reducing the trade deficit through tariffs could backfire, as it may lead to less foreign investment in U.S. assets, which has historically supported the stock and bond markets [18][34] Group 3 - The article points out that the current economic model, which has benefited Wall Street, relies on a global division of labor that has allowed for low-cost imports, thus keeping inflation in check and increasing purchasing power [24][26] - It argues that if Trump succeeds in bringing manufacturing back to the U.S., it could lead to higher production costs and negatively impact corporate profits, resulting in a return to the lackluster market performance seen before 1980 [26][41] - The article also discusses the implications of high tariffs on domestic industries, using the example of the firefighting equipment market, where prices have soared due to reduced competition [28][30] Group 4 - The article concludes that Trump's approach to trade and tariffs is fundamentally at odds with the interests of Wall Street, which thrives on the current economic structure that promotes globalization and low-cost imports [41] - It suggests that a shift towards free trade and cooperation with global partners, along with internal reforms to support manufacturing workers, would be more beneficial for the U.S. economy [41]

Group 1 - The CEO of Nippon Steel stated that the U.S. policy shift to implement high tariffs will enhance the strategic importance of their business development in the U.S. domestic market [1]

Group 1 - Fitch Ratings has downgraded the growth outlook for North American non-financial companies for 2025, changing the rating outlook from "stable" to "negative" [1] - The downgrade is attributed to the potential impact of high tariff policies by the U.S. government, which may trigger a new wave of inflation and weaken consumer purchasing power, creating dual pressure on economic operations [1] - The downgrade affects several consumer-oriented sectors, including retail, alcoholic beverages, food services, global automotive manufacturing, and oil and gas extraction [1] Group 2 - Fitch notes that companies are struggling to maintain operational data through price increase strategies, contrasting with the previous inflation cycle of 2022-2023, where strong employment and fiscal stimulus supported consumer markets [1] - The agency predicts that if consumers cannot absorb price increases from tariffs, companies will be forced to adopt unconventional operational strategies, such as cost-cutting and delaying capital expenditures to maintain cash flow [1] - Despite the downgrade, Fitch maintains its basic judgment that the U.S. economy will not experience a technical recession in 2025-2026, but highlights that regulatory policy uncertainty is eroding economic growth momentum [1] Group 3 - In terms of industry rating differentiation, Fitch maintains a "stable" outlook for software technology services and business services, citing digital transformation demand as a stable support for related companies [2] - The aerospace and defense industry received an upgrade, driven by the recovery of the global civil aviation market leading to increased aircraft orders and sustained defense budget investments from major economies [2]

Core Point - The fifth round of ministerial-level tariff negotiations between Japan and the United States did not reach an agreement, highlighting ongoing trade tensions and unresolved differences between the two countries [1] Group 1: Negotiation Progress - The discussions have made some progress, but no consensus has been found yet [1] - The negotiations have been ongoing for three consecutive weeks without bridging the gap between the two nations [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Japan's government is aiming to reach some level of agreement between the leaders by mid-month, but the feasibility of this goal remains uncertain [1]

Core Viewpoint - The external environment remains complex and volatile, leading to fluctuations in foreign trade growth, with a notable impact from high tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [1][6]. Export Summary - In April 2025, China's total exports reached $315.69 billion, marking an 8.1% year-on-year increase, although this represents a decline of 4.3 percentage points from the previous month [1][3]. - The growth rate of exports to the United States significantly decreased, while exports to ASEAN countries saw a substantial increase [3][5]. - Traditional exports such as clothing, footwear, and bags continued to decline, whereas exports of electromechanical products and high-tech products, particularly integrated circuits, experienced robust growth [1][7]. Import Summary - In April 2025, China's total imports amounted to $219.51 billion, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.2%, although the rate of decline narrowed by 4.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [2][6]. - The demand for traditional bulk commodities decreased due to ongoing economic restructuring, and the import growth rate remained low despite some signs of recovery [2][8]. - Imports from the United States, EU, and ASEAN saw significant declines, while imports from Latin America increased notably [2][8]. Future Outlook - The export growth rate is expected to fluctuate in 2025 due to increased uncertainty from political changes in major Western trading partners and the aggressive tariff policies of the Trump administration [9]. - The RCEP agreement is anticipated to provide support for export growth through an optimized export structure [9]. - Import growth is projected to gradually improve as domestic economic stabilization policies take effect, although challenges remain due to the ongoing bottoming out of the real estate market and high global trade barriers [9].

Core Viewpoint - The high tariff policies of the Trump administration are creating a sense of distance between the U.S. and its allies in Europe and Asia, which significantly impacts security cooperation mechanisms [1] Group 1: Tariff Policies and Security - The chairman of the Policy Research Council of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, Nobuteru Ishihara, expressed concerns that high tariffs imposed by the U.S. on countries like Japan, South Korea, and India affect security collaboration [1] - Ishihara emphasized the need to explore the implications of Trump's tariffs on the future of international order [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2025, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2022, raising concerns about the impact of high tariff policies on economic growth and consumer confidence [1][3]. Economic Performance - The U.S. GDP shrank by 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted annual rate in Q1 2025, the worst performance in over two years [1]. - The contraction is attributed to a surge in imports and a reduction in government spending, with imports increasing by 50.9% from January to March 2025 [1][2]. Tariff Impact - High tariffs have led to increased import activity as businesses stockpile goods in anticipation of further tariff hikes, which may suppress future consumer spending [2][3]. - Moody's analysis indicates that tariffs are eroding consumer purchasing power, contributing to a decline in domestic consumption and consumer confidence, with the consumer confidence index hitting its lowest level since the pandemic [3]. Employment Trends - Private sector job creation has significantly slowed, with April's new job numbers falling short of market expectations, indicating a potential downturn in employment opportunities [3][4]. Recession Outlook - Analysts predict a 65% chance of the U.S. economy entering a recession in 2025 due to policy uncertainties and the adverse effects of high tariffs on supply chains and demand [4][5]. - Bloomberg estimates a 50% likelihood of recession within the next year, as high tariffs complicate economic conditions [5].