Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The report highlights significant fluctuations in precious metals, driven by changes in margin requirements and adjustments in commodity index weights, leading to a rebound in precious metals prices following disappointing non-farm payroll data [3] - The report emphasizes a bullish outlook on precious metals due to ongoing geopolitical events and expectations of monetary easing, suggesting investors should hold positions despite market volatility [3] - For copper, the report recommends buying on dips, citing expected supply-demand tightness in 2026 due to production cuts from major producers and increased fiscal spending expectations from the U.S. government [4] - The aluminum market is also recommended for buying on dips, with strong macro policy expectations and geopolitical risks providing support despite current demand pressures [4] - Tin prices have surged past 350,000 yuan/ton, driven by significant inventory reductions and ongoing demand from AI capital expenditures, with a recommendation to buy on dips [5] - Lithium prices continue to rise, with a recommendation to buy on dips, supported by supply constraints and strong demand expectations [5] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw an 8.3% increase this week, ranking fifth among sectors [13] Prices - LME copper decreased by 0.93%, aluminum increased by 1.91%, zinc decreased by 1.84%, lead increased by 0.84%, and tin increased by 7.38% [18] - Precious metals saw COMEX gold rise by 1.32%, silver by 4.29%, and NYMEX palladium by 5.73%, while platinum fell by 18.09% [18] - Lithium carbonate prices surged by 17.15% [18] Inventory - Global visible copper inventories increased by 31,985 tons, while aluminum saw a decrease of 809 tons, zinc decreased by 900 tons, lead decreased by 11,300 tons, and tin decreased by 916 tons [24][26]

2026年美联储的降息节奏将如何影响美元？ 巴克莱使用中国外汇结算和交易数据估计，中国企业美元持有量中可能有1000亿美元的兑换资金流动。 张蒙解释说，2020年以来，出口商保留了大量美元收入，估计2023年以来出口商持有的美元金额约为 7000亿。这些美元可能不会全部兑换为人民币。巴克莱认为，中国企业将继续持有美元，但若美元对人 民币汇率继续跌至7.1~7.15区间，7000亿美元中最多有1000亿美元可能被兑换。 随着去年下半年关税担忧缓和，人民币近期涨势明显，连续下破7.2、7.15、7.1关口，并最终在去年12 月突破7.0。有多位中资行对公业务人士对第一财经提及，近几个月部分出口商客户已经大量结汇，不 过还有较多美元存款（近年来由于美元利率更高，出口商倾向于以美元存款形式保留外汇收入）。 "出口商结汇的趋势明显在9月开始加速。结汇原因在于，7.1以下是关键结汇心理关口（位于过去几年 出口商平均的购汇点位附近），临近春节等因素也推动人民币升值。"张蒙表示，全年来看，1-2月出口 商净购汇，从3月到11月则结汇1800亿美元，预计加上12月和今年1月会超2000亿美元。"一般春节前2-4 周结汇潮会停止 ...

高盛闭门会--2026 年 G10 利率展望：通缩缓解降低了久 期风险 20260110 摘要 在我们的宏观观点中存在通缩因素，预计年底将接近目标水平。目前环境下， 我们预测波动性不高。对于主要经济体 10 年期基准利率，我们预计美国利率 将横盘整理至 4.2%。尽管久期风险依然存在，今年（2026 年）财政风险和经 济增长前景略有改善。如果通胀走势保持相对可控，即便债券供给量大，也能 催生债券需求。因此，这是我们美国利率预测的重要考量因素之一。 我们倾向 于认为美国收益率曲线趋陡。如果劳动力市场数据出现任何走弱迹象——短期 内不会出现显著走弱——美联储始终存在加速降息风险。若出现此类疲软迹象， 美国收益率曲线小幅趋陡。此外，我们预计德国国债收益率会上升，因为德国 市场共识接近降息周期尾声，甚至可能进入加息周期，但当前经济预测 与多数经济体实际情况接近，政策利率预测略低于市场预期，预计通缩 过程将持续至 2026 年，美联储或再降息两次。 预计英国央行今年可能降息三次，美国降息两次，瑞典央行或加拿大央 行等经济体将维持政策不变，澳大利亚央行年底前可能加息一次，多数 市场年底实际利率水平将略低于当前水平。 日本 ...

"随着半导体超级周期与韩国股市/公司治理改革形成协同效应，我们认为韩国股市有进一步上涨空 间，" Cindy Park、CW Chung等分析师在报告中写道。 该行给出的目标位较周三收盘位4，135点有21%的上行空间。上半年首选买入标的为三星电子和SK海 力士，其次是现代汽车、Doosan Enerbility、韩国电力公司、Samsung Biologics和Hyundai Rotem。野村 把现代汽车目标价上调16%至370，000韩元，理由是与同行的估值差距正在缩小。 责任编辑：王永生 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：王永生 野村预计，受半导体超级周期和持续推进的公司治理改革推动，韩国基准Kospi指数2026年上半年将升 至5，000点。 野村预计，受半导体超级周期和持续推进的公司治理改革推动，韩国基准Kospi指数2026年上半年将升 至5，000点。 "随着半导体超级周期与韩国股市/公司治理改革形成协同效应，我们认为韩国股市有进一步上涨空 间，" Cindy Park、CW Chung等分析师在报告中写道。 该行给出的目标位较周三收盘位4，135点有21%的上行空间。上半年首选 ...

你 真的准备好迎接一连串 "黑天鹅＋灰犀牛"了吗？ 特朗普关税 2.0靴子刚刚落地，冲击波仍在扩散 。 更令人不安的问题随之浮现：如果 AI 资本支出 一旦熄火，美股还能靠什么撑住？ 更关键的是 ——美联储的"加息预期"会复活吗？这根"最锋利的针"，是否会刺穿AI三年的超级繁荣？ 中国这边，多条线索正快速汇合 ： Deep S eek引爆AI产业链全线上攻，财政贴息托底消费，"反内卷"推动制造业回归价值，万亿化债打开信 用空间，房地产静待政策回温…… 在这一切交织之下，中国权益市场会否迎来 "风险偏好复位"？还是，一个全新的周期正在悄然开启？ 当 欧洲还在疲软泥潭中徘徊，日本的政策调整则持续搅动全球资金流向 ——2026年会不会成为"东亚政 策冲击波"向全球扩散的一年？ 地缘层面也在酝酿关键变化： 俄乌和谈久违露出曙光，美国却持续施压委内瑞拉， OPEC转向谨慎，亚太摩擦依旧是那头随时可能冲出 来的灰犀牛 。 能源价格会否再次成为全球资产的风向标？ 而 大宗商品早已悄悄给出了答案： 当 天量债务融资 压力逐渐显形 、 "通胀+衰退"组合 阴影 逼近，我们必须直面一个问题：美元、估值、 流动性，会不会在 202 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hartnett predicts that going long on commodities will be the best trade in 2026, driven by a shift in economic policy from "monetary easing + fiscal tightening" to "fiscal easing + de-globalization" post-pandemic [3][4][6] Group 1: Commodity Market Outlook - The report emphasizes that the transition in global economic policy creates structural opportunities for commodities, which are expected to outperform bonds in the 2020s due to inflationary growth and populism [4][6] - Hartnett highlights that oil and energy sectors, long overlooked by the market, represent the best contrarian investment opportunity for 2026 [9] - The report notes that natural resources, metals, and Latin American stock markets have shown technical breakthroughs, with the latter up 56% year-to-date [7] Group 2: Bond Market Analysis - Despite the positive outlook for commodities, Hartnett expresses caution regarding the bond market, indicating that it is under pressure from "hot" economic policies [10][18] - Historical data shows that U.S. Treasury yields typically rise following the nomination of a Federal Reserve Chair, with 2-year yields increasing by an average of 65 basis points and 10-year yields by 49 basis points within three months [13][14] - The report suggests that the current market threat is that any gains in the stock and credit markets may be concentrated in the first half of 2026, with potential long bond sell-offs if the Fed adopts a dovish stance [19] Group 3: Stock Market Opportunities - Hartnett identifies a complex and differentiated landscape in the stock market, where liquidity peaks correspond to credit spread lows, and AI capital expenditures are becoming a new regulatory force [20] - The report favors mid-cap stocks over spenders in the AI sector, anticipating government interventions to manage inflation and unemployment rates [22] - Specific sectors such as cyclical "Main Street" industries (homebuilders, retail, paper, transportation, REITs) are seen as having the best relative upside potential, supported by anticipated economic stimulus from the Trump administration [23]

Core Viewpoint - The market is concerned about Oracle's potential issuance of up to $100 billion in debt to fund its AI ambitions, but analysts believe the actual amount will be significantly lower, estimated between $25 billion and $35 billion [1][2]. Debt Issuance and Financial Health - Oracle's recent bond issuance of $18 billion is part of its strategy to finance AI infrastructure, with additional debt issuance of $38 billion planned for data centers [3]. - The company's capital expenditure for the current fiscal year is projected at $35 billion, primarily for its cloud business, leading to a negative free cash flow forecast of $9.7 billion [3][4]. - Standard & Poor's has revised Oracle's outlook to "negative" due to anticipated capital expenditures and debt issuance straining its credit status [4]. Market Sentiment and AI Investment - Analysts note that approximately 84% of Oracle's market value is supported by its non-AI business, indicating a limited current valuation for its AI partnerships [2]. - The overall trend in the tech sector shows a record debt issuance of $108 billion among the top five AI spending companies, which is more than three times the average over the past nine years [3]. Investor Concerns and Future Projections - There is growing concern among investors regarding the sustainability of high capital expenditures without corresponding cash flow, particularly as Oracle's cash reserves may be depleted by November 2026 [4][6]. - The anticipated increase in AI capital expenditures to $600 billion by 2027 raises questions about the ability of the bond market to absorb this surge in supply [6][7].

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, marking a four-day winning streak, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.67%, the S&P 500 up 0.69%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.82% [1] - U.S. markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, with shortened trading hours on Friday [1] Employment Data and Interest Rate Expectations - The latest employment data from the U.S. Labor Department showed initial jobless claims fell to 216,000, below the market expectation of 225,000 [3] - The Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" indicated resilient high-end consumer spending, but overall consumer spending is declining [3] - Market reassessment of monetary policy led to an 83.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December, up from previous forecasts [3] Market Sentiment and Fund Flows - Market fear has significantly eased, with the S&P 500 volatility index (VIX) dropping approximately 35% over four days, the largest decline since mid-April [4] - Institutional investors are buying on dips, particularly in non-essential consumer goods and healthcare sectors, while technology sector ETFs are seeing significant outflows [4] Technology Sector Trends and Analyst Views - The technology sector is experiencing a mix of divergence and rebound, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising 2.76% and all 30 component stocks gaining [5] - Nvidia's stock rose 1.37%, while Oracle's stock rebounded over 4% [5] - Analysts from Bank of America and Deutsche Bank maintain "buy" ratings on Nvidia and Oracle, respectively, citing long-term market dominance and overreaction to recent sell-offs [5][6] Corporate Earnings Performance - Dell Technologies reported a third-quarter revenue increase of 11% year-over-year to $27.005 billion, a record high [7] - Li Auto's third-quarter revenue fell 36.2% year-over-year to 27.4 billion yuan, with a net loss of 624 million yuan, indicating a shift from profit to loss [7]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry and Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the global capital markets, with a focus on the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, emerging markets, particularly Vietnam, and the AI sector. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Federal Reserve Rate Cuts**: The expectation of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is driving up gold and emerging market assets, particularly benefiting countries like Vietnam due to tariff negotiations and their economic conditions [1][2][3] 2. **Investment Logic**: The investment hierarchy is suggested as follows: Gold > Emerging Market Equity Assets > Developed Market Risk Assets, indicating a preference for gold and emerging markets in the current economic climate [1][4] 3. **AI Capital Expenditure**: AI capital expenditure is viewed as a representation of a future technological revolution, warranting active attention from investors [4] 4. **Chinese Central Bank's Position**: The likelihood of the Chinese central bank cutting rates in the short term is low, but there is a high probability of 1-3 cuts in the next year, which could positively impact RMB-denominated risk assets [5][1] 5. **Market Adjustments**: Recent adjustments in global capital markets are attributed to high valuations and challenges to the AI narrative, with concerns about potential AI bubbles following new product releases from major tech companies [6][1] 6. **RMB Asset Decline**: The decline in RMB assets is primarily due to investor sentiment rather than direct overseas liquidity impacts, with concerns about the sustainability of the AI trend [7][1] 7. **Federal Reserve's Hawkish Stance**: Recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have raised market expectations for a December rate cut to over 70%, which has alleviated liquidity concerns and led to a rebound in U.S. stocks [8][1] 8. **A-Share Market Liquidity**: A-Share market liquidity is expected to improve in early 2026, supported by government debt issuance and fiscal measures aimed at debt resolution [9][10] 9. **Global Market Trends**: The global market is anticipated to enter a significant easing cycle in 2026, although inflation in essential sectors may limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates [11][1] 10. **Convertible Bond Market**: The convertible bond market is performing well, with specific bonds showing strong performance due to favorable market conditions and upcoming economic events [13][14] 11. **Consumer Policy Measures**: The government is implementing policies to enhance consumer demand, particularly in the service sector, focusing on both essential and discretionary services [17][18][19] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The discussion highlights the importance of monitoring the sentiment around AI investments and the potential for market corrections if the narrative shifts [6][1] - The convertible bond market's resilience is noted, with a focus on the potential for future gains as market conditions evolve [13][14] - The government's proactive approach to stimulating consumption, especially in the service sector, is emphasized as a critical area for future growth [17][18][19]

Group 1 - The core view of Morgan Stanley's 2026 outlook is that an AI-driven capital expenditure wave of nearly $3 trillion will propel the market higher, with the S&P 500 index expected to reach 7800 points [1][2][8] - The report highlights that the shift in U.S. policy towards industrial policy and strategic investments is driving a significant rebound in corporate capital expenditures [3][4] - Morgan Stanley predicts that global AI-related capital expenditures will approach $3 trillion, with approximately $1.5 trillion needing to be financed through public and private credit markets, contributing 0.4 percentage points to the projected 1.8% GDP growth in the U.S. by 2026 [5][6] Group 2 - Investment opportunities are expected to be broad-based across various industries, not limited to a few leading AI companies, with industrial firms, tech component suppliers, and financial institutions likely to benefit [8] - In the credit market, high-yield bonds are forecasted to outperform investment-grade bonds due to increased issuance pressures on investment-grade bonds, while high-yield bonds are expected to provide around 6-7% total returns [8] - Despite the positive outlook for 2026, there are warnings about potential cyclical pressures from trade policies and interest rate fluctuations, with the Fed possibly starting to cut rates in early 2026 [9] Group 3 - The main risk identified is the potential failure of the AI capital expenditure wave to translate into substantial productivity gains, which could lead to rising corporate leverage outpacing output growth and causing credit market concerns [10] - However, the likelihood of this risk materializing in 2026 is considered low, as corporate fundamentals remain strong with healthy balance sheets and low leverage [10] - It is crucial for investors to monitor key indicators such as corporate leverage, market valuations, and the conversion of investment waves into actual output starting in 2026 [10]