交银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 医药 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 8 月 25 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 10.51 | 港元 | 9.30↑ | -11.6% | | | 石药集团 (1093 HK) | | | | | | | 2Q25 仍承压但业绩拐点将至，研发、BD 稳步推进，上调目标价 公司的存量大单品在 2Q25 继续受到集采、院端医保控费等压力，但我们看好 2H25 及 2026-27 年业绩复苏的机会，考虑到上述影响即将出清、重磅 BD 首 付款对业绩的增厚、以及原料药/功能食品业务的反弹。我们上调目标价，当 前公司估值合理，正向催化剂预期和风险已基本反映在股价中，维持中性。 个股评级 中性 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 8/24 12/24 4/25 8/25 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 1093 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 10.96 | | --- | --- | | 52 ...

国内医药并购市场热闹起来了？ 几天前，山东科源制药股份有限公司(以下简称"科源制药")披露多份公告，计划以发行股份方式收购山 东宏济堂制药集团股份有限公司(以下简称宏济堂)99.42%的股份，交易作价约为35.81亿元。 无独有偶，云南白药也在近期抛出了一份并购文件，其全资子公司云南白药集团中药资源有限公司将以 现金方式收购聚药堂药100%股权，股权转让对价总额为6.6亿元。 一个月前，中国生物制药以10亿美金的估值收购礼新医药，创下年内最大收购案。 大单一笔接一笔，医药并购的东风要吹起来了么？这个问题当下还无法得出明确的结论，但能看到的 是，今年并购交易的金额明显上涨。 智通财经创投通-执中数据显示，截至今日，国内共有195起医药并购交易，较去年同期的229起有所降 低。但今年年内交易的总金额累计达到214.47亿元，是去年同期2倍有余。 1/50的成功率 量未起，价先行，这种独特的局面与医药并购市场的"AB面"行情形成了一种奇妙的映照。 在当下的并购交易市场上，医药并不是一个热门领域。头部证券的并购业务负责人和多位正在从事并购 交易的投资人都告诉《科创板日报》记者，医药方向的需求在今年的市场里不算活跃的， ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral rating to the company with a target price of HKD 70.40, indicating a potential downside of 9.4% from the current closing price of HKD 77.75 [6][11]. Core Insights - The company has experienced significant growth in innovative drug sales, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 16% in 1H25, driven by a 23% increase in innovative drug sales, which now account for 55% of product sales revenue [6][12]. - The management plans to increase R&D investment while keeping the total R&D expenditure as a percentage of total revenue below 30% [6]. - The company has achieved several business development (BD) milestones, including the approval of six innovative drugs in 1H25 and expectations to launch 47 new products and indications from 2025 to 2027 [6][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company reported a revenue of approximately RMB 20 billion from collaboration income, up from RMB 14 billion in 1H24 [6]. - The gross margin improved by 0.4 percentage points to 86.6%, with a notable decrease in selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses and R&D expense ratios [6][12]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is RMB 32,543 million, with a net profit forecast of RMB 7,698 million [12]. Business Development - The company has successfully completed three overseas agreements in 2025, including a deal with GSK valued at approximately USD 12 billion [6]. - The management's targets for the employee stock ownership plan include achieving over 25% annual growth in innovative drug sales and submitting 5-8 new drug applications each year from 2025 to 2027 [6]. Valuation - The report raises the revenue forecast for 2025-2027 by about 2% and the net profit forecast by 7-8% to reflect the contributions from various BD transactions and expected improvements in profit margins [6][12]. - The DCF valuation model indicates a fair value of HKD 70.40 per share, with no premium or discount applied to the Hong Kong shares compared to A-shares [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising trend of business development (BD) in the Chinese innovative pharmaceutical sector, highlighting significant transactions and the evolving landscape of BD strategies among companies and investors [5][11]. BD Trends - Many fund teams are researching the next BD trends and adjusting their investments accordingly, with a notable increase in BD transaction amounts in China, exceeding $48.4 billion in the first half of 2025, including over $2 billion in upfront payments [5][6]. - The impact of BD news on companies' short-term strategies is significant, especially in a resource-constrained environment where pipeline prioritization is critical [5][6]. Major BD Events - Significant transactions this year include a $60.5 billion collaboration between 3SBio and Pfizer, setting a record for domestic dual antibodies, and a $53.3 billion deal between CSPC and AstraZeneca [8][9]. - The trend is shifting towards "packaged" BD deals, which help build trust between companies, as MNCs remain cautious about the long-term delivery capabilities of Chinese biotech firms [9][10]. Changes in Perception of Going Global - The perception of Chinese innovative drugs going global has evolved, with a shift from high barriers to entry to recognizing numerous opportunities as MNCs actively seek partnerships [12][13]. - The focus has shifted to products that can be standardized and have a proven track record in China, indicating that BD opportunities are increasingly competitive [12][13]. High-Value BD Opportunities - The PD-1/VEGF dual antibody market is highlighted as a high-value area, with multiple Chinese biotech firms entering clinical stages and generating significant BD events [13][14]. - The TCE (T-cell engagers) sector is also emerging as a promising area for BD, with substantial transaction amounts already recorded [15]. Future Considerations - The BD landscape is expected to evolve, with uncertainties about the long-term sustainability of current successes and the potential impact of future clinical data on the reputation of Chinese biotech [17][18]. - Concerns exist regarding the sustainability of companies focusing solely on BD, as excessive reliance on selling core pipelines may hinder future growth and exit strategies [18][19].

Core Insights - The Chinese innovative drug sector has gained global recognition, with the Hang Seng Medical ETF rising over 90% and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index increasing by 130% this year, indicating a shift to the first tier of global pharmaceutical capabilities [1] - There is a trend where investors are actively engaging in business development (BD) transactions rather than waiting for IPOs, with international capital looking to invest in domestic biopharmaceutical firms to explore promising drug development projects [1][2] - The investment model has evolved, focusing on direct investments in drug development projects and supply chain management, leading to opportunities for domestic general partners (GPs) to raise USD funds and enter international supply chains [1][2] Investment Trends - BD transactions have become mainstream in the industry, particularly large deals exceeding USD 1 billion related to overseas licensing of drug pipelines [2] - For instance, the collaboration between 3SBio and Pfizer involves a potential total transaction amount exceeding USD 6 billion, with an upfront payment of USD 1.25 billion [2] - The total value of BD transactions in the first half of the year surpassed USD 60 billion, highlighting the significance of this investment approach [2] Target Investment Institutions - International limited partners (LPs) are seeking three types of domestic GPs for investment in innovative drug projects: 1. GPs that invest in U.S. biopharmaceutical companies, primarily to introduce Chinese drug projects [3] 2. GPs that invest in foreign companies with Chinese drug authorizations [3] 3. GPs that lead investments in newly established domestic companies (NewCos) focused on overseas sales of Chinese drugs [3] NewCo as a Strategy - Establishing NewCos allows domestic GPs to enhance their bargaining power in international collaborations by determining their share of profits and selecting international teams for management [5][6] - NewCos can be established at a low valuation, enabling domestic GPs to leverage investments while providing accountability to domestic LPs [6] - However, the effectiveness of this model depends on the specific terms of agreements, particularly regarding profit-sharing and distribution [6] Challenges and Market Alignment - Despite the potential advantages of NewCos, challenges remain, particularly in aligning drug development with international market demands [7][8] - Domestic GPs need to better understand U.S. market needs and integrate into the drug project initiation phase to facilitate marketization and internationalization [8] - The use of AI technology is being explored to match Chinese drug projects with international buyer demands, enhancing the likelihood of successful collaborations [8][9] Investment Focus Areas - International LPs are also interested in investing in AI pharmaceutical companies, platforms that incubate multiple projects, and specific types of research and development projects [9] - The emphasis on supply chain management capabilities is crucial for the success of these investments, reflecting a shift in biopharmaceutical investment strategies [9]

Core Insights - The Guangdong province is aiming to achieve a trillion-level biopharmaceutical and health industry by leveraging policy support, capital assistance, and technological innovation [3][4][6]. Group 1: Industry Development - Guangdong's biopharmaceutical industry is at a critical development stage, with Guangzhou and Shenzhen as core hubs, supported by cities like Zhuhai and Zhongshan [4]. - The province has a strong foundation in traditional Chinese medicine (TCM), with a total industrial output value of 45.71 billion yuan in 2024, of which over 33.43 billion yuan comes from traditional Chinese medicine products, accounting for over 11% of the national total [8]. - The province faces challenges such as the degradation of medicinal material sources and low rates of secondary development for high-quality traditional Chinese medicine products, with less than 35% of products undergoing secondary development [8][9]. Group 2: Policy and Investment - Guangzhou is establishing a biopharmaceutical industry investment fund with a target scale of 20 billion yuan to support enterprise growth and optimize regulatory processes [6]. - Experts emphasize the need for long-term capital support for innovative drug development, advocating for the establishment of a comprehensive mother fund system to align with social capital [12][13]. - The current investment cycle for innovative drugs is long, and there is a call for government and market-based funds to adopt longer-term capital models to better serve the biopharmaceutical industry [12][13]. Group 3: Innovation and Collaboration - The Southern Metropolis Daily has initiated a deep research project focusing on the innovation capabilities of the biopharmaceutical and health industry, covering five major regions and evaluating companies based on innovation, transformation, and collaboration [6][9]. - Experts suggest building collaborative innovation platforms and promoting industry-academia-research alliances to enhance the biopharmaceutical ecosystem [15]. - The integration of AI in healthcare and biopharmaceuticals is seen as a transformative force, although challenges such as data silos and collaborative ecosystems remain [16]. Group 4: Market Trends and Opportunities - Chinese biopharmaceutical companies are increasingly gaining international attention, with 40% of major BD transactions in the first seven months of the year involving Chinese firms, up from 4-5% four years ago [16]. - Traditional pharmaceutical companies are transitioning to innovative biopharmaceutical enterprises, with significant R&D investments, exemplified by a company that allocated 22.4% of its revenue to R&D last year [17].

Core Viewpoint - The recent pullback in the innovative drug sector does not indicate a peak, as the underlying logic differs from previous market cycles, particularly the 2021 bubble [2][3]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The current rise in innovative drugs is supported by strong fundamentals, contrasting with the previous bubble driven by capital [4][5]. - Key drivers include the ability to generate revenue from overseas markets, gradual improvement in domestic drug consumption capacity, favorable policy changes, and advancements in technology [5][6][7]. - The Chinese market is expected to see a significant increase in the approval speed for innovative drugs, with the average approval time reduced from 24 months to 12 months [6]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The innovative drug market is likely to experience a long-term trend supported by various factors, including engineering talent, policy benefits, technological breakthroughs, and capital support [7]. - Companies in the sector face challenges in realizing their pipeline values, necessitating careful evaluation of current market valuations against potential future values [8][11]. - The market has shifted from negative expectations to normal expectations, leading to substantial price increases for many companies that were previously undervalued [9][10]. Group 3: Specific Company Analysis - For instance, He Yu Pharmaceutical has a market cap of approximately 70 billion HKD, with cash reserves of 23 billion RMB and pipeline values potentially exceeding 40 billion RMB [12][14]. - The company's lead pipeline candidate, Pimicotinib, has high market expectations, with projected peak sales exceeding 2 billion USD [12][14]. - Other companies in the sector exhibit similar characteristics, where short-term price increases may obscure the true intrinsic value of their businesses [17]. Group 4: Future Trends and Strategies - The market is expected to transition from a broad-based rally to a more differentiated performance, emphasizing the importance of identifying companies with strong fundamentals [18]. - Business Development (BD) will continue to be a critical factor, with companies focusing on reliable technologies and partnerships to drive growth [18][19]. - Pre-commercial companies are also seen as attractive investments, as their valuations can significantly increase upon achieving commercialization milestones [23][24]. Group 5: Industry Outlook - The Chinese innovative drug industry is undergoing a critical transformation, with improved R&D capabilities and capital efficiency, comparable to strong sectors like photovoltaics and new energy [25].

Group 1 - The stock of CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093) rebounded nearly 5% after a drop of almost 9% earlier, closing down nearly 4% at HKD 10.15 with a trading volume of HKD 1.824 billion [1] - Morgan Stanley's report indicated that the Hang Seng Healthcare Index fell by 3% during the trading session, while the overall Hang Seng Index remained flat, highlighting the weak performance of companies with asset authorization potential [1] - Concerns about the upcoming US pharmaceutical and semiconductor tariffs may have contributed to the market's decline, although Morgan Stanley believes the likelihood of tariffs on BD transaction payments is low [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley anticipates more BD transactions in the second half of this year and in the future, particularly for key pharmaceutical companies with strong product lines, such as CSPC Pharmaceutical Group [1] - Credit Lyonnais previously reported that CSPC has 10 already listed innovative brands and over 30 innovative products expected to launch before 2028, predicting a re-acceleration of core profit growth starting in 2026 [1] - The target price for CSPC was raised from HKD 13.8 to HKD 17.4, with a reaffirmation of a strong belief in outperforming the market [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **innovative drug industry** in China, highlighting its growth and international recognition, particularly in the context of major academic conferences like ASR and ASCO [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Policy Support**: Since early 2024, favorable policies have been introduced to support the pharmaceutical industry, positively impacting the valuation of innovative drugs [2][3]. - **International Recognition**: The number of Chinese companies and new drugs showcased at the 2025 ASR and ASCO conferences reached record highs, indicating increased international recognition and collaboration opportunities [1][2][4]. - **Medicare Fund Health**: The Medicare fund is operating well, with a healthy surplus rate, which reduces future payment pressures. New innovative drugs entering negotiations from 2018 to 2024 accounted for only 2% of total fund expenditures, suggesting significant growth potential in the market [1][5]. - **Leading Fields**: China holds a leading position in areas such as ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugates), monoclonal antibodies, bispecific antibodies, and gene therapy, contributing to the establishment of global competitiveness [1][6]. - **Significant Transactions**: Notable transactions in the innovative drug sector include the licensing of TCE bispecific antibodies from Tongren Pharmaceutical to Merck, with an upfront payment of $700 million, reflecting increased recognition from multinational companies [1][7]. Additional Important Content - **Emerging "留扣" Model**: This new transaction model allows Chinese companies to license products or establish small companies overseas to collaborate with foreign funds, alleviating cash flow pressures and potentially leading to profitable sales in the U.S. market [3][8][9]. - **Profitability Expectations**: Companies like Innovent Biologics and BeiGene are expected to achieve profitability by 2025, indicating that the innovative drug sector is entering a profitable cycle, which may attract more investors [3][10]. - **Impact of Business Development (BD)**: BD activities significantly contribute to company performance, as high-quality research outputs gain international recognition, leading to more licensing deals and collaborations with multinational corporations [11]. - **Valuation Methods**: The common methods for evaluating innovative drug companies include RNPV (Risk-Adjusted Net Present Value) and simplified peak sales multiples, which consider various factors such as discount rates and growth rates [12][17]. - **Factors Influencing PS Multiples**: Key factors affecting the PS multiples include profit margins, product launch speeds, success rates of R&D, and discount rates, all of which have shown positive trends in the innovative drug sector [15][16][18]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and developments within the innovative drug industry as discussed in the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current landscape and future prospects.

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant growth and transformation of China's innovative drug industry, driven by favorable healthcare policies and large business development (BD) transactions [1][2][3] - The current market trend indicates a second wave of growth in the innovative drug sector, with increasing recognition from global pharmaceutical companies [2][4] Industry Analysis - The first wave of the innovative drug market was primarily fueled by healthcare policy support, allowing innovative drugs to be covered by both public insurance and commercial insurance [2] - The second wave is supported by successful clinical results presented at global academic conferences, attracting attention from international investors [2][4] - Large BD transactions are emerging as multinational pharmaceutical companies seek effective innovative drugs from China, indicating a revaluation of domestic innovative drug assets [2][3] Investment Strategy - The focus is shifting towards identifying high-growth potential "dark horse" innovative drug companies that have not yet been fully valued by the market [3][5] - The investment strategy emphasizes a differentiated approach, moving away from widely held blue-chip stocks to lesser-known companies with significant upside potential [3][5] - The innovative drug sector is viewed as having its own valuation logic, based on future product sales peak cash flow rather than traditional price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [3][4] Market Outlook - The innovative drug industry is expected to enter a prolonged growth cycle, potentially lasting three years or more, as more companies achieve significant clinical milestones and BD transactions [4][5] - The increasing number of innovative drug companies meeting high standards set by multinational firms is likely to enhance their market presence globally [4] - The emergence of new research pipelines and expanding treatment indications will further elevate the sales peak expectations for innovative drug products [4]