"边走边看，祈祷行情可以持续，"一家近期递表药企的IR负责人说道。待上市药企，普遍渴望能抓住这 一波上市机会。 "现在大家都觉得很紧迫。因为市场很热，发行窗口难得，谁也不确定等自家通过聆讯时，行情是什么 样。"科律律师事务所上海办事处主管合伙人刘毅铭表示，"另外，当前创新药横向竞争也比较激烈，像 代谢领域，已有多家开发GLP-1靶点的药企上市，还有几家正在推进中。市场上能看懂创新药的二级市 场投资人，本身就有限，如果他投了竞品，可能不一定有胃口再投同赛道的另一家企业。" 因此，大家都在抢时间。企业家们组团走进港交所，了解18A制度和最新资本政策；多家投资机构组织 港股IPO主题闭门会，尝试加速被投企业上市进程；律所、投行等服务方更是迎来"旺季"，在递表前通 宵达旦地工作。 估值逻辑转变，Biotech加速冲刺 港交所门口，排满了等待上市的创新药企。 9月28日，小核酸药企靖因药业递表港股IPO，上轮投后2.5亿美元。9月15日至今两周间，已有爱科百 发、新元素药业、先为达等六家创新药企加入港股IPO冲刺队伍。 今年4月映恩生物上市以来，沉寂多时的港股创新药板块，被高频的BD交易、汹涌的IPO热潮激活。维 立志 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the Chinese innovative pharmaceutical industry is increasingly focusing on international expansion, with a significant rise in business development (BD) transactions in 2025 compared to previous years [4][5] - In the first half of 2025, the total amount of BD transactions for innovative drugs going overseas approached the total for the entire year of 2024, indicating a strong trend towards international collaboration [4] - BD transactions are characterized as technology licensing rather than product sales, offering lower initial investment and shorter monetization cycles compared to self-directed overseas market entry [4][5] Group 2 - The article notes that while large companies like Heng Rui Medicine (恒瑞医药) can sustain regular BD transactions due to their abundant pipelines, smaller pharmaceutical companies may struggle to maintain consistent overseas revenue through this model [5] - A Chinese innovative pharmaceutical company has adopted a unique approach to its overseas strategy, distinguishing itself from typical models in the industry [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a surge in IPO activities for innovative biotech companies in Hong Kong, driven by favorable market conditions and regulatory changes [1][2][4] - Since April 2023, the Hong Kong IPO market for innovative drugs has been revitalized, with several companies experiencing significant oversubscription and stock price increases on their debut [1][3] - The current trend shows a shift in investor preference towards smaller biotech firms with lower valuations, contrasting with previous years where companies had valuations exceeding 10 billion RMB [2][3] Group 2 - Over 60 medical and pharmaceutical companies have submitted IPO applications in 2025, with innovative drug companies making up a significant portion [4] - The new regulations implemented by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in August 2023 have positively impacted the subscription rates and stock prices of new listings [7][8] - The market is witnessing a growing interest in business development (BD) collaborations, which are seen as crucial for the valuation and future growth of biotech companies [5][6] Group 3 - The global pharmaceutical industry is facing a potential revenue decline due to patent expirations, creating opportunities for Chinese innovative drug assets [5] - The recent changes in the IPO process have led to increased participation from institutional investors, enhancing the overall market dynamics [8] - The Hong Kong biotech sector is expected to maintain a positive long-term outlook due to improved asset quality and global competitiveness [8]

业内人士普遍认为，从长期看，海外不确定性因素增加给医药板块投资带来不确定性。 这是恒瑞医药年内的第五笔BD交易，带动公司年内达成的BD交易首付款累计超过8亿美元。除恒瑞之外，今年上半年，国内License-out（对外授权，BD 交易的一种）交易共计72笔，首付款总额达到26亿美元，总金额高达600亿美元，超过2024年全年交易的总金额。"BD交易的火热，反映出国内医药产业 研发水平近年来持续提升，日益得到国际先进认可。"信达生物董事会主席、首席执行官俞德超说。 火热的BD交易，带动龙头药企经营业绩改善。今年上半年，恒瑞医药实现营收157.61亿元，同比增15.88%，百济神州实现营收175.18亿元，同比增 46.03%，中国生物制药实现营收175.7亿元，同比增长10.7%……记者以申万行业分类（2021版）搜索发现，在499家医药生物企业中，上半年营业收入同 比增长的有230家，较2024年同期减少了24家，但从净利润角度看，上半年同比增加的有236家，占比达47.3%，较2024年同期提升2.8个百分点。 值得一提的是，今年以来，包括《支持创新药高质量发展的若干措施》等一系列政策的出台，增强了市场信心 ...

前一段时间，美国对中国创新药BD出手的传闻又起。 回顾近一年的创新药牛市，诱发股价上涨的核心驱动因素真实跨国药企（MNC）的连续BD预期：从最 早的康方生物，到后来的科伦博泰，再到百利天恒、三生药业，这些创新药"当红炸子鸡"的崛起全部与 大额BD交易相关。 对于创新药"BD为王"的核心逻辑，我们十分认同。早在2023年初的时候，我们就以《2023年，中国创 新药投资告别"豪赌"时代》一文给出明确判断：BD交易将成为创新药投资的核心主线。 当初判断已经成为行业的共识，我们万分欣喜的同时，也深知"真理掌握着少数人手中"的道理。当BD 预期已经释放的足够充分，甚至药企开始预告式BD的时候，就说明核心投资逻辑的"变局时刻"已经开 始悄然酝酿。 创新药的鬼故事不一定能落地，但投资者却应该提前做好医药投资逻辑切换的准备。 本文来自格隆汇专栏：锦缎 01 万物皆周期 这个世界上的所有事物，都逃不出"周期"二字。当投资者读懂了周期，也就读懂了投资。 股市由衰转盛是周期的原因，同样投机泡沫的破裂亦是周期所带动。对于投资者而言，永远不要与周期 作对，而是应该学会将周期的力量转化为己用。 BD预期，是这轮创新药牛市的核心诱因，受益 ...

证券研究报告 2025年09月23日 作者： 分析师 杨松 SAC执业证书编号：S1110521020001 分析师 曹文清 SAC执业证书编号：S1110523120003 1 行业评级： 上次评级： 强于大市 强于大市 维持 （ 评级） 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 摘要：中国创新药产业趋势已成，进军全球商业化 立足现在：进军全球商业化，大量优质项目将继续推高产业发展 行业报告 | 行业专题研究 医药生物 创新药产业趋势已成，进军全球商业化 政策端——全面支持"真创新"：从顶层设计到地方落地形成合力，全面支持创新。 人才端——梯队合理：战略层+执行层协同配置，成为药物研发各环节高效落地的关键保障，也代表中国本土Biotech正在构建自身可持续的研发引擎。 展望未来：提升创新度将进一步打开商业化价值空间，未来可期 产学研持续加深合作，为FIC分子产出蓄力。中国已成为全球靶点验证到IND路径中效率最高的国家之一。这种研发效率与成本优势，将推动产业迈向 更高创新度分子的开发，而更具创新度的分子也意味着更高的商业化价值。 建议关注： ①全球大单品：百济神州（H），科伦博泰生物(H)，信达生物（H），康方 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on China's Innovative Drug Industry Industry Overview - The Chinese innovative drug industry is transitioning from a follower to a leader, showcasing significant advantages in R&D efficiency and cost control, particularly in popular technology areas such as bispecific antibodies (双抗) and antibody-drug conjugates (ADC) [1][2][3] - The approval speed of innovative drugs directly impacts market volume and competitive landscape, with early market entry being crucial [1][6] Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Dynamics**: The Chinese innovative drug sector is experiencing a shift in underlying logic, with improved liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market and increased risk appetite expected to boost the pharmaceutical sector, especially innovative drugs [1][8] - **International Recognition**: Chinese innovative drugs are gaining international recognition, exemplified by the $1.25 billion upfront payment for the PD-1 VGF bispecific antibody licensed to Pfizer by 3SBio, marking a significant milestone in outbound business development (BD) transactions [1][9] - **Policy Influence**: Healthcare policies are encouraging differentiated innovation, with diverse payment methods being explored, and the impact of drug price reduction policies being limited [1][4][5] Key Factors Affecting the Industry - **Types of Companies**: The innovative drug sector comprises Big Pharma and Biotech companies, with Big Pharma focusing on commercialization and Biotech emphasizing R&D innovation [1][7] - **Investment Sentiment**: The overall performance of the pharmaceutical sector has been weak from 2020 to 2024 due to investor preference for dividend stocks, but improvements in liquidity and risk appetite in 2025 are expected to enhance the performance of the innovative drug sector [1][8] Challenges and Opportunities - **Global Competition**: As the global source innovation enters a bottleneck, Chinese companies can leverage high efficiency to achieve competitive advantages, particularly in ADC and bispecific antibody fields where they hold significant market shares [1][20][22] - **Market Entry Timing**: The timing of market entry is critical, with first-in-class drugs capturing an average of 45% market share, while subsequent entrants see diminishing returns [1][18] Emerging Trends and Future Directions - **New Drug Development**: The focus on PD-1 bispecific antibodies and ADCs is expected to drive future growth, with several companies poised to launch significant products in the near term [1][31][32] - **Clinical Trial Efficiency**: Chinese companies demonstrate superior enrollment speeds in clinical trials, significantly reducing time and costs compared to international counterparts [1][16] Conclusion - The Chinese innovative drug industry is positioned for substantial growth driven by policy support, international recognition, and advancements in R&D efficiency. The upcoming years are likely to see increased BD activities and successful product launches, contributing to the sector's evolution and competitiveness on a global scale [1][10][32]

经济观察报 见习记者 刘晓诺 神曦生物的创始人陈功注意到，2025年以来，有更多合伙人级别的投资人来看创新药项目、参加行业会 议了。而去年，参加圆桌论坛的很多是投资经理。 多位创新药企创始人表示，投资人看过之后就没有回信了。而对投资人来说，上一批基金的退出依然承 压，新一轮募资变得更难，出手要加倍谨慎。 长晶资本创始管理合伙人喻晶打了个比方："台风过后，无论大树还是小草，都不会一蹴而就地长出 来，对于新的生态环境需要有个逐步成长和适应的过程。" A轮要融20个多月 为了完成2024年初开始的A轮融资，陈功至今还在跑动。他平均每周见两名投资人，"有些投资人说没 时间来，我说那我去拜访你吧"。9月，他马不停蹄地出现在香港、上海、北京、武汉等地，参加路演和 各种会议。 不过，投资人虽然开始走动，但当前融资依然艰难。陈功为A轮融资已经跑了20多个月，资金尚未落 地。 另一位创业者花了大半年时间，与二三十家机构交流后仍未完成天使轮，投资人告诉他，"你聊得还算 少的，至少要聊100家机构，才会有人投资。" 2025年开年以来，创新药行业的上市公司股价集体走出低谷，接连不断的BD（主要指药物对外授权） 交易催动股市热，超6 ...

Core Insights - The innovation drug industry is experiencing a dichotomy between a booming secondary market and a struggling primary market for financing [4][16][23] - Despite increased interest from investors, the financing environment remains challenging, with many biotech companies facing long delays in securing funding [3][9][16] Industry Trends - Since the beginning of 2025, stock prices of listed innovative drug companies have rebounded, with over 60 companies seeing their stock prices double [4] - A survey indicated that 60% of biotech leaders believe the primary market has emerged from its lowest point, but conditions are still not ideal [4][9] - In the first half of 2025, there were 188 financing events in the domestic innovative drug primary market, a 7.4% year-on-year decline, with total financing amounting to approximately $1.58 billion, down 24.5% year-on-year [4] Financing Challenges - Many biotech founders report difficulties in securing funding, with one entrepreneur stating that they needed to engage with at least 100 institutions to attract investment [3][9] - A significant portion of biotech companies (63%) reported that financing progress is "not very smooth" or "very difficult" [9] - The primary barriers to financing include high professional barriers and stringent financing conditions, such as onerous agreements [9] Investor Sentiment - Investors are increasingly cautious, focusing on companies' commercialization capabilities rather than just scientific potential [10][11] - There is a noticeable shift in investor logic, with a greater emphasis on achieving milestones and providing clear pathways for success [11][12] - Investors are particularly interested in companies nearing IPO stages, as these represent more immediate opportunities for returns [15] Exit Strategies - The current exit environment remains challenging, with many investors indicating that exit channels are not smooth [16][19] - The pressure for exits is compounded by the need for funds to return from previous investments, which has created a bottleneck in the market [16][19] - Innovative exit strategies, such as BD transactions, are becoming more common, although they often do not lead to complete exits [20] Future Outlook - There is a concern that the current wave of BD transactions may lead to a gap in future investment opportunities due to insufficient funding for new projects [22] - Investors believe that a recovery in the primary market will depend on improved policy and market conditions, as well as successful outcomes in the secondary market [23][24] - The industry faces a potential decline in entrepreneurial activity, with a shift in focus from investing in companies to investing in specific drug pipelines [24]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese innovative drug industry is transitioning from a "fast-follow" model to a more proactive and innovative approach, exemplified by Heptares Therapeutics' strategic acquisitions and partnerships, leading to significant growth and international collaboration [5][9][11]. Group 1: Company Strategy and Growth - Heptares Therapeutics acquired a Dutch biotechnology company to establish a fully human antibody platform, positioning itself for global research and development [5][6]. - The company reported a profit of approximately 523 million RMB in the first half of the year, marking a 51-fold year-on-year increase [6][10]. - Heptares has completed 17 business development (BD) transactions, becoming recognized as the "BD King" in the industry [6][10]. Group 2: International Collaboration and Licensing - In the first half of the year, the total amount of license-out agreements from Chinese innovative drugs exceeded $60 billion, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2024 [7]. - Heptares entered into a global strategic cooperation with AstraZeneca, involving a $175 million upfront payment and plans to establish a joint innovation center in Beijing [7][8]. - The company also signed a global strategic cooperation agreement with Otsuka Pharmaceutical, receiving an upfront payment of $47 million, with potential milestone payments reaching $623 million [7][8]. Group 3: Industry Transformation and Future Outlook - The shift in the Chinese innovative drug industry reflects a fundamental change in the ecosystem, with increased international collaboration and improved intellectual property protection [8][11]. - Heptares is transitioning from a focus on single product licensing to a platform-driven long-term strategic cooperation model, enhancing its capabilities in various therapeutic areas [11][12]. - The company aims to balance international collaboration with the independent advancement of clinically valuable products, ensuring sustainable growth and innovation [12].