Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the offshore RMB against the USD, surpassing the 7.0 mark, has sparked mixed reactions regarding its impact on the economy, highlighting that both appreciation and depreciation have structural implications for different industries [1][2]. Group 1: Benefits of RMB Appreciation - Lowering import costs and aiding industrial upgrades: Industries reliant on imported raw materials and high-end equipment, such as paper manufacturing and high-tech sectors, benefit from reduced production costs due to RMB appreciation [4]. - Alleviating imported inflation and stabilizing domestic prices: The appreciation of the RMB can lower the import prices of commodities priced in USD, helping to stabilize domestic prices and benefiting consumers [5]. - Enhancing the international status of the RMB and attracting foreign investment: A stronger RMB increases its international credibility, making RMB-denominated assets more attractive to foreign investors, which can improve market liquidity and support the internationalization of the RMB [6]. Group 2: Challenges of RMB Appreciation - Direct impact on export industries: RMB appreciation makes Chinese goods more expensive in international markets, reducing price competitiveness, particularly affecting labor-intensive sectors like textiles and electronics [7]. - Risk of attracting speculative capital: A perception of unilateral RMB appreciation may lead to an influx of speculative capital, potentially inflating asset prices and complicating financial management [8]. Group 3: Benefits of RMB Depreciation - Stimulating exports: Depreciation makes Chinese goods cheaper for foreign buyers, increasing orders and profits for export companies [9]. - Promoting domestic employment: Increased orders for export companies can lead to expanded production and job creation, particularly in labor-intensive industries [10]. - Attracting foreign tourism and consumption: A weaker RMB allows foreign tourists to exchange more currency for RMB, reducing their costs in China and boosting the tourism sector [11]. Group 4: Challenges of RMB Depreciation - Rising import costs and inflation: Industries dependent on imported raw materials face increased costs, which may be passed on to consumers, leading to higher domestic prices [12]. - Increased external debt pressure: Sectors with significant USD-denominated debt may face heightened repayment burdens due to depreciation, impacting their financial stability [12]. Group 5: Overall Perspective - There is no absolute "good" or "bad" regarding RMB appreciation or depreciation; the ideal scenario is maintaining a stable exchange rate that aligns with current economic needs, avoiding extreme fluctuations [13].

Group 1: Interest Rate Adjustments - The three-year fixed deposit product with an interest rate of 2.2% was officially removed on January 5, with all deposit rates decreasing by 20 basis points [1] - Multiple small and medium-sized banks, including Wuding Xingfu Village Bank and Xuwen Rural Commercial Bank, have recently announced adjustments to their deposit rates, indicating a trend of flexible management based on individual bank conditions [1] Group 2: Currency and Asset Trends - The offshore RMB exchange rate against the USD rose again on January 6, remaining above the 7 yuan mark, continuing a trend of appreciation that has lasted nearly nine months [1] - Analysts believe that the strengthening of the RMB is beneficial for foreign capital inflow, improving liquidity and risk appetite in the A-share market, with three asset categories highlighted for investment: aviation, paper manufacturing, and high-growth sectors like computing and electronics [1] Group 3: Company Performance Forecasts - Eleven companies are expected to achieve their highest net profits in the past decade by 2025, with Zijin Mining and Luxshare Precision leading with lower limits of 51 billion yuan and over 16.5 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The performance of the non-ferrous metals sector is expected to be strong due to supply constraints and structural demand growth, with companies like China Uranium Industry also anticipated to reach peak profits [2] Group 4: Lithium Carbonate Price Surge - Lithium carbonate prices have surged significantly, with a 7.74% increase on January 5 and an 8.99% increase on January 6, reaching 137,900 yuan per ton, driven by tightening supply expectations and rising demand [3] - The price increase is linked to uncertainties in lithium supply and growing demand for energy storage, with market analysts suggesting limited downside potential for lithium prices [3] Group 5: Corporate Developments - Yunnan Metallurgical Group is publicly offering a 3.18% stake in Cheng Tai Insurance for a base price of 184 million yuan, marking the third attempt to transfer this stake [6] - Four companies, including Suzhou Shangshun Technology, have initiated listing counseling as of January 6, indicating ongoing activity in the capital markets [6] Group 6: Stock Market Movements - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.99%, driven by AI-related demand, while the S&P 500 and Dow reached historical highs [17] - Commodity prices, particularly metals, have seen significant increases, with copper and nickel reaching record highs, reflecting strong market conditions [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant growth in China's emotional consumption market, projecting an increase from 16.3 trillion yuan in 2022 to 23.1 trillion yuan in 2024, and further to 27.2 trillion yuan in 2025, with expectations to exceed 45 trillion yuan by 2029 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.5% to 4083.67 points, marking the longest consecutive rise in history [1] - The market turnover reached 2.83 trillion yuan, with a notable increase in financing balance by 19.27 billion yuan to 2.543422 trillion yuan on January 5 [2][10] - The A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend supported by policy, capital, and industry drivers [2][10] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need for flexible and efficient use of monetary policy tools, including interest rate cuts, to ensure ample liquidity [1][7] - The central bank's focus for 2026 includes enhancing financial services for high-quality economic development and deepening financial reforms [7] Group 3: Commodity Insights - Aluminum prices increased by 2.58% in the night session, with supply constraints and demand remaining stable despite a slight decline in downstream operating rates [3][21] - The dual焦 (coking coal and coke) market showed strong performance, with a seasonal increase in demand expected in January due to pre-holiday restocking [3][23] - Iron ore prices continued to rise, supported by increased shipments from Brazil and a slight recovery in domestic steel production [24] Group 4: International News Impact - The article mentions significant geopolitical developments, including the U.S. military's actions in Venezuela and discussions regarding Greenland, which may influence market sentiment [1][6]

每经AI快讯，经历前一日小幅调整后，1月6日，离岸人民币兑美元汇率再度上涨，截至当日17时仍稳 定在7元关口上方。自2025年4月9日以来，本轮人民币升值已持续近9个月。在业内人士看来，当前国内 经济格局稳中向好，人民币升值与股市上涨的驱动因素存在一定程度的重合，人民币升值往往有利于外 资回流，从而改善A股市场的流动性与风险偏好；布局方面，有三类资产值得关注，包括基本面受益于 人民币升值的航空运输、造纸等行业，计算机、电子等高景气度板块以及港股。（中证报） ...

经历前一日小幅调整后，1月6日，离岸人民币兑美元汇率再度上涨，截至当日17时仍稳定在7元关口上 方。自2025年4月9日以来，本轮人民币升值已持续近9个月，人民币汇率走强对权益市场带来哪些影 响、哪些行业板块有望从中受益，成为近期机构研究的重点。 在业内人士看来，当前国内经济格局稳中向好，人民币升值与股市上涨的驱动因素存在一定程度的重 合，人民币升值往往有利于外资回流，从而改善A股市场的流动性与风险偏好；布局方面，有三类资产 值得关注，包括基本面受益于人民币升值的航空运输、造纸等行业，计算机、电子等高景气度板块以及 港股。 人民币升值有望改善市场风险偏好 自2025年4月9日以来，离岸人民币兑美元汇率出现了一轮较为明显的上涨态势，引发投资者持续关注。 "股市与汇率往往存在正向关联，但资产定价背后的'表'与'里'更为关键。"在国盛证券策略首席分析师 杨柳看来，从"表"的层面看，无论是短期扰动导致的风险偏好波动，还是国内外货币政策调整导致的流 动性变化，都将同步作用于股票与汇率定价，这也是二者在表现上存在关联的重要驱动因素；从"里"的 层面看，汇率对股市盈利的传导主要通过收入、负债、成本三条路径传导，即影响收入端 ...

● 本报记者 胡雨 三类资产配置价值获得关注 对于人民币升值背景下的投资，杨柳建议围绕两大主线索展开布局："一是钢铁、化工、航空运输、工 业金属、造纸、燃气等行业，布局这些行业应重点关注汇率波动对其基本面的影响程度；二是从过往经 验看，人民币趋势性升值易带动外资流入加快，若外资贡献重要增量资金且配置偏好持续，那么预计受 益方向更可能集中在电力设备、汽车、有色金属、电子、通信、家电、食品饮料等行业，布局这些行业 要重点关注外资入场节奏与流向的动态。" 对于短期市场配置，赵阳同样看好计算机、电子、电力设备、家电、通信等板块。其中，计算机、电子 板块处于高景气度阶段，电力设备板块还受益于"反内卷"，景气度有望持续修复。通信板块短期可能需 要把握配置节奏，家电板块则需要等待新一轮国补等政策催化。 值得注意的是，近期在人民币持续走强的背景下，同为中国资产重要组成部分的港股市场，整体表现相 对疲弱，2025年四季度以来主要股指表现跑输A股。 经历前一日小幅调整后，1月6日，离岸人民币兑美元汇率再度上涨，截至当日17时仍稳定在7元关口上 方。自2025年4月9日以来，本轮人民币升值已持续近9个月，人民币汇率走强对权益市场带 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent appreciation of the Chinese Yuan against the US Dollar, primarily driven by the decline in US interest rates, and its implications for various financial markets including US bonds, US stocks, and Chinese assets [3][4][19]. Group 1: Currency Trends - Over the past year, the Chinese Yuan has appreciated significantly against the US Dollar, mainly due to the decrease in US interest rates [3]. - The decline in US interest rates has narrowed the interest rate differential between the US Dollar and the Yuan, facilitating the Yuan's appreciation [4]. - The US Dollar Index, which measures the Dollar's value against a basket of major currencies, reflects the Dollar's performance in the international currency market [6]. Group 2: Impact of Interest Rates on Currency - The cycle of interest rates is closely related to currency exchange rates; during periods of US interest rate hikes, the Dollar tends to appreciate, while during rate cuts, it depreciates [7][8]. - The Federal Reserve's significant interest rate hikes from 2021 to 2022 resulted in a 25%-30% appreciation of the Dollar against other currencies [8]. - Following the Fed's first rate cut in September 2024, the Dollar has depreciated against other currencies, including the Yuan [9]. Group 3: Effects on Financial Markets - Rising interest rates typically lead to a bear market in bonds, as higher rates decrease bond market values [11]. - The bond market has shown a slow bullish trend since the Fed's rate cut in September 2024, with bond index funds beginning to recover [12]. - The overall US stock market has also seen an upward trend since the onset of the rate cut cycle in September 2024 [16]. Group 4: Influence on Chinese Assets - Changes in US interest rates affect the exchange rate, which in turn impacts A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [18]. - The previous US interest rate hike cycle led to significant depreciation of other currencies, causing capital outflows and increased volatility in weaker markets like Hong Kong [18]. - Since the rate cut cycle began in September 2024, the Yuan's appreciation has attracted capital inflows into Chinese assets, boosting both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [19][20]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - Interest rates are short-term factors that can create opportunities for undervalued buying and overvalued selling in the market [22]. - A rising Dollar often leads to asset price declines, presenting buying opportunities during bear markets, while a falling Dollar can lead to price increases, creating selling opportunities during bull markets [22]. - Long-term investment strategies should focus on the intrinsic value and valuation of stocks, as interest and exchange rate fluctuations primarily provide opportunities for buying low and selling high [27].

Market Performance - The domestic equity market continued to strengthen last week, with major broad-based indices generally rising around 3%, and both the Wind All A and CSI 2000 indices reached new highs for the year [1][5] - The average daily trading volume increased to a high level of 2.2 trillion yuan, driven primarily by the cyclical sector led by non-ferrous metals [1][5] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology rose by 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively [1][5] Currency Exchange Rate - The Chinese yuan has significantly appreciated against the US dollar this year, particularly after the Busan talks in late November, which eased bilateral relations [1][6] - The offshore yuan exchange rate even briefly surpassed the 7 yuan mark, attracting significant investor attention [1][6] - As of the end of November, China's official foreign exchange reserves were approximately 3.35 trillion USD, an increase of over 140 billion USD since the beginning of the year [6] Impact on Export and Import Companies - The appreciation of the yuan means that Chinese export goods have become more expensive in the international market, posing challenges for export-oriented companies, especially those in labor-intensive industries that rely on price advantages [2][6] - Export companies receiving payments in USD will find that converting to yuan results in lower amounts, potentially reducing profits, which raises concerns about exchange losses for companies with high export ratios in Q4 [2][6] - Conversely, companies that need to import raw materials, energy, components, and high-end equipment will benefit from a stronger yuan, as it reduces procurement costs and can enhance profit margins [2][6] Trade Balance and Economic Strategy - China's long-term trade surplus has been a source of friction with other economies, particularly the US and Europe [3][7] - The proactive balancing of trade is seen as beneficial for creating a more favorable international economic environment [3][7] - The central government's focus on domestic circulation and expanding domestic demand is a key task for high-quality economic development in the coming year [3][7] Bond Market Outlook - In the bond market, short- to medium-term interest rates declined while long-term rates saw slight increases, with secondary capital bonds showing little change [3][7] - The bond market is expected to remain within a narrow range, supported by stable year-end liquidity and potential new monetary policies from the central bank [3][7] - Despite current economic pressures, there is a possibility of a simultaneous bull market in both stocks and bonds in the near future [3][7]

Domestic Macro Viewpoints - Recent policies have led to a rebound in economic expectations, with December construction PMI rising by 3.2 points to 52.8%[5] - December manufacturing PMI increased by 0.9 points to 50.1%, marking the first return to the 50% line since March of the previous year[5] - The expected economic growth rate for 2025 is around 5%, with a slight increase in the likelihood of a strong start in Q1 2026[5] Overseas Macro Viewpoints - The U.S. economy is expected to rebound due to the end of government shutdowns and a cumulative 75bps rate cut by the Federal Reserve since September 2025[5] - Anticipation of Trump's visit to China in April may enhance market risk appetite through increased diplomatic engagement[5] - The midterm elections are likely to lead to more accommodative fiscal and monetary policies, supporting U.S. stock markets throughout the year[5] Equity Market Viewpoints - A-share market is expected to experience a spring rally, driven by liquidity expectations and positive sentiment from overseas markets[5] - The AI industry chain remains a key focus, with investments in hardware, storage, and applications like robotics expected to grow[5] - Industries that have not fully launched yet, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and gaming, may also see new market opportunities[5] Bond Market Viewpoints - Interest rates are expected to slightly decline after the New Year, with 10-year rates potentially returning to around 1.80%[6] - Concerns about fiscal expansion and new regulations on public fund redemptions have eased, contributing to a more stable bond market outlook[6] Currency Market Viewpoints - The RMB has appreciated against the USD, with the onshore and offshore rates breaking the 7.0 mark due to seasonal demand and policy adjustments[9] - The RMB is expected to maintain an upward trend in January, supported by pre-Spring Festival settlement demand, but may stabilize in February[9] Quantitative Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for growth-oriented ETFs in the A-share market, with specific recommendations for various sectors[10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In 2026, supply - side reform is expected to continue, pushing up commodity prices and driving up resource - based stocks [2]. - Since December, the RMB has appreciated against the US dollar. With the weakening of the US dollar in the interest - rate cut cycle, overseas funds are expected to flow back, leading to the revaluation of Chinese assets [2]. - Under multiple positive factors, the long - term and slow - rising pattern of A - shares is expected to be consolidated, forming a triple resonance of "policy support, capital escort, and industry drive" [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and alternate quarter) were 4714.00, 4702.60, 4697.00, and 4649.80 respectively, with increases of 95.60, 98.40, 103.80, and 101.60. The trading volumes were 35243.00, 3875.00, 72812.00, and 11757.00, and the open interests were 57682.00, 6427.00, 173732.00, and 46361.00, with changes of - 527.00, 1026.00, 6857.00, and 845.00 respectively [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 3097.40, 3099.60, 3098.80, and 3088.80, with increases of 73.20, 78.40, 77.20, and 77.00. The trading volumes were 14001.00, 1501.00, 35869.00, and 4657.00, and the open interests were 19315.00, 1966.00, 56614.00, and 14295.00, with changes of - 66.00, 466.00, 2964.00, and 179.00 respectively [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 7664.80, 7624.80, 7596.00, and 7417.00, with increases of 209.60, 218.20, 229.40, and 234.60. The trading volumes were 34931.00, 6676.00, 79757.00, and 18834.00, and the open interests were 60955.00, 15432.00, 160143.00, and 60304.00, with changes of 1787.00, 2372.00, 15069.00, and 3432.00 respectively [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 7759.20, 7697.80, 7639.00, and 7403.40, with increases of 179.60, 192.00, 200.00, and 198.80. The trading volumes were 45173.00, 8782.00, 103703.00, and 24252.00, and the open interests were 79432.00, 20240.00, 189842.00, and 83969.00, with changes of - 1493.00, 3064.00, 8761.00, and 3014.00 respectively [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts were - 11.40, 2.20, - 40.00, and - 61.40 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 12.60, - 0.80, - 47.80, and - 77.00 [1]. 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 4717.75, 3099.75, 7651.20, and 7753.88, with increases of 1.90%, 2.26%, 2.49%, and 2.09% respectively. Their trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 234.14, 53.50, 251.85, and 305.37, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 6305.77, 1695.62, 5046.90, and 5422.31 [1]. - **Industry Indexes**: Among different industries, the energy industry had a decline of 1.21%, while the raw materials, industrial, and optional consumption industries had increases of 2.02%, 1.56%, and 0.46% respectively. The main consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, and information technology industries had increases of 2.13%, 3.60%, 1.50%, and 3.69% respectively. The telecommunications and public utilities industries had increases of 1.14% and 0.34% respectively [1]. 3. Futures - Spot Basis - **CSI 300 Basis**: The previous day's basis values of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and alternate quarter) against the CSI 300 were - 3.75, - 15.15, - 20.75, and - 67.95 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 7.74, - 20.34, - 30.14, and - 74.94 [1]. - **SSE 50 Basis**: The previous day's basis values of IH contracts against the SSE 50 were - 2.35, - 0.15, - 0.95, and - 10.95 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 5.13, - 5.93, - 6.13, and - 14.73 [1]. - **CSI 500 Basis**: The previous day's basis values of IC contracts against the CSI 500 were 13.60, - 26.40, - 55.20, and - 234.20 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 9.97, - 57.77, - 102.77, and - 290.17 [1]. - **CSI 1000 Basis**: The previous day's basis values of IM contracts against the CSI 1000 were 5.32, - 56.08, - 114.88, and - 350.48 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 13.88, - 90.88, - 159.08, and - 397.28 [1]. 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 4023.42, 13828.63, 8439.12, and 3294.55, with increases of 1.38%, 2.24%, 2.12%, and 2.85% respectively [1]. - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P Index, and DAX Index were 26347.24, 0.00, 6902.05, and 24829.90, with increases of 0.03%, DIV/0!, 0.64%, and 1.18% respectively [1]. 5. Macro Information - The CSRC held a cross - departmental work promotion symposium on the comprehensive prevention and control system of financial fraud in the capital market, aiming to strengthen administrative, criminal, and civil coordination and combat financial fraud [2]. - Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks with South Korean President Lee Jae - myung, and the two sides signed 15 cooperation documents in multiple fields [2]. - Chinese Premier Li Qiang conducted research in Guangdong, emphasizing the promotion of new technologies and products such as robots and drones [2]. - Nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued a document to promote green consumption, supporting the purchase of new - energy vehicles and green smart home appliances [2]. - Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian responded to the issue of China's import of Venezuelan oil, stating that China - Venezuela cooperation is protected by international and bilateral laws [2]. 6. Industry Information - The China Tourism Academy predicted that the number of ice - snow tourism participants in the 2025 - 2026 winter would reach 360 million, and the revenue would reach 450 billion yuan [2]. - The preliminary estimate of the China Passenger Car Association showed that the new - energy vehicle wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers in December 2025 was 1.57 million, a year - on - year increase of 4% and a month - on - month decrease of 8%. The cumulative wholesale volume in 2025 was 15.33 million, a year - on - year increase of 25% [2]. - According to CRIC's monitoring, in 2025, the new land acquisition value, total price, and construction area of 100 real - estate enterprises were 2261.4 billion yuan, 1102.7 billion yuan, and 100.9 million square meters respectively, with year - on - year changes of + 2%, + 3%, and - 5%. Investment was concentrated in first - and second - tier cities [2]. - Chongqing will carry out a special rectification action on the online environment in the real - estate field, focusing on real - estate marketing accounts on major platforms [2].