Core Viewpoint - The successful execution of a 217 million RMB cross-border payment by Jinshang Bank marks a significant advancement in the bank's cross-border RMB business and supports the national strategy for RMB internationalization [1][2]. Group 1: Business Achievement - Jinshang Bank facilitated a 217 million RMB cross-border payment for Taiyuan Aviation Group, directly transferring RMB to the designated settlement bank in the UK [1]. - This transaction is the first application of cross-border RMB payment for goods in Shanxi Province under the new model of "bonded procurement + leasing trade" [1]. - The transaction represents the largest cross-border RMB settlement business for Jinshang Bank, highlighting its commitment to serving the real economy [1]. Group 2: Strategic Importance - The successful completion of this transaction enhances Jinshang Bank's cross-border RMB business scale and market influence [2]. - It strengthens the bank's collaboration with clients, providing a solid and high-certainty expectation for the client's business layout in the upcoming year [2]. - Jinshang Bank plans to leverage this achievement to promote its business and improve cross-border financial service quality, contributing to RMB internationalization and regional economic development [2].

Group 1: Financial Industry Opening and Development - The financial sector's opening is a crucial part of China's reform and opening-up strategy, with accelerated steps during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, enhancing international competitiveness and influence [1] - Key tasks for building a strong financial nation in the "15th Five-Year Plan" include accelerating the construction of an international financial center, improving Shanghai's market price influence, and supporting Hong Kong's status as an international financial center [1][7] Group 2: Global Financial Governance Participation - The opening of the IMF Shanghai Center on December 8, 2025, signifies China's commitment to global financial governance and cooperation, enhancing macroeconomic policy coordination in the Asia-Pacific region [2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is actively involved in global governance platforms to promote a fairer global financial governance structure and enhance financial stability [2] Group 3: Renminbi Internationalization - The international status of the Renminbi has steadily improved, with its weight in the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket increased from 10.92% to 12.28% in 2022, marking a significant milestone in Renminbi internationalization [3] - The PBOC emphasizes that the Renminbi's rise contributes to a more diversified and balanced international monetary system, enhancing global financial stability [3] Group 4: Enhancing Cross-Border Financial Services - The PBOC and other authorities have launched an action plan to improve cross-border financial services in Shanghai, focusing on enhancing settlement efficiency and optimizing risk management services [5] - The establishment of the Digital Renminbi International Operation Center in Shanghai aims to strengthen the integration of finance and the real economy through technological innovation [5] Group 5: Strengthening Hong Kong's Financial Hub - The PBOC is implementing measures to deepen financial cooperation between the mainland and Hong Kong, supporting Hong Kong's position as a major offshore Renminbi business center [7] - A funding arrangement of 100 billion Renminbi is set to provide stable and low-cost funding sources for commercial banks in Hong Kong, reinforcing its financial center status [7] Group 6: High-Level Financial Opening - The PBOC is promoting high-level financial opening, enhancing market connectivity, and optimizing mechanisms like Bond Connect and Swap Connect to facilitate foreign investment [8] - As of August 2025, foreign investment in China's bond market has significantly increased, with nearly 1,170 foreign investors participating, and total holdings reaching approximately 3.9 trillion Renminbi [8] Group 7: Financial Market Integration and Risk Management - Efforts are underway to align financial market rules with international standards, increasing the global competitiveness of Chinese bonds and enhancing their recognition as collateral [9] - The PBOC is focused on balancing financial high-level opening with risk prevention, ensuring a robust regulatory framework to support safe and stable market operations [9]

工商银行将充分发挥集团优势，进一步拓展数字人民币创新应用场景，积极助力推进人民币国际化、建 设自主可控的人民币跨境支付体系，为扩大高水平对外开放贡献力量。 近日，在中国人民银行、新加坡金融管理局、老挝人民民主共和国银行指导下，中国工商银行成功开展 数字人民币跨境数字支付平台业务试点，为相关业务的正式落地提供有力保障，有效助力提升跨境支付 效率和服务水平。 2025年9月24日，中国人民银行宣布数字人民币国际运营中心正式运营，并推出数字人民币跨境数字支 付平台，为央行数字货币跨境支付合作提供"中国方案"。工商银行依托全球服务网络和数字人民币业务 运营优势，积极助力数字人民币跨境数字支付平台发展。其中，工行新加坡分行积极落实2025年中新双 边合作联合委员会（JCBC）宣布的数字人民币合作成果，成功开展数字人民币个人钱包境外充值创新 试点，便利新加坡游客在华消费；工行万象分行与工行山东分行内外联动，成功办理中老首笔国际贸易 项下数字人民币跨境汇款业务，为"走出去"企业跨境支付保驾护航，进一步助力跨境贸易和投融资便利 化。 银行频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：钟离 ...

新华财经北京1月8日电 新华财经8日从中国银河证券获悉，该公司近日在银行间市场推出"银河证券境 外银行熊猫债篮子"（代码：BBX013024），并已实现多笔交易。该产品是债券篮子序列中的新品种， 主要整合境外主体优质金融债券，旨在为投资者提供高效便捷配置熊猫债的工具。 | 序号 | 债券代码 | 债券简称 | | 期限(年) 券面(万元) 权重 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 243001 | 24工银亚洲债01 | 1.83 | 1000 | 33% | | 2 | 292480020 | 24建行亚洲债01BC | 1.83 | 1000 | 33% | | ന | 292480010 | 24新开发银行债02BC | 17 | 1000 | 33% | 据了解，该篮子的推出与当前推动金融高水平开放及人民币国际化的政策导向相契合。产品设计上注重 选取信用评级较高、市场流动性较好的熊猫债，覆盖多类境外发行主体。银河证券依托做市能力，对篮 子提供双边报价，目前整体报价价差保持在约2个基点水平。 此外，篮子设有动态调整机制，将根据成分债券的市场报价、成 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the RMB exchange rate experienced significant appreciation against the USD, influenced by tariff expectations, fluctuations in the USD, and improvements in the domestic environment, with onshore and offshore RMB appreciating approximately 4.27% and 4.93% respectively [1][2][3] Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends in 2025 - The RMB exchange rate reached its highest levels since May 2023, closing at 6.9879 for onshore and 6.9697 for offshore [2] - The year can be divided into two phases: the first phase saw a depreciation of about 0.65% until early April due to rising global tariff risks, while the second phase from mid-April to year-end saw a cumulative appreciation of approximately 4.9% as external economic conditions improved [2][3] - The depreciation of the USD, driven by various factors including the Federal Reserve's shift to a loose monetary policy, contributed to the RMB's strength [3] Group 2: Internal and External Factors Supporting RMB Appreciation - Strong export performance supported the RMB's appreciation, with a trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion for the first 11 months of 2025 [3] - The Chinese capital market showed resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 18.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 29.87%, and the ChiNext Index up by 49.57%, providing solid support for the RMB [3] - The implementation of stable exchange rate policies helped to smooth fluctuations and maintain market expectations [3][4] Group 3: Outlook for 2026 - The RMB is expected to continue a gradual appreciation against the USD in 2026, influenced by the USD's potential depreciation and narrowing interest rate differentials between China and the US [6][7] - The external economic environment's impact on the RMB may lessen, with improved resilience in China's economy and financial markets [6][7] - Despite potential short-term fluctuations, the RMB is projected to maintain a range of 6.9 to 7.3 against the USD, with a focus on balanced exchange rate management [7][8]

【黄金期货行情表现】 1月8日，沪金主力暂报998.56元/克，跌幅0.67%，今日沪金主力开盘价999.40元/克，截至目前最高 1004.94元/克，最低993.58元/克。 【宏观消息】 首先，美联储降息预期仍存。"宽松预期+弱美元"修复通道持续。其次，避险情绪升温。美国债务膨 胀、去美元化、地缘冲突加剧以及中美贸易摩擦、经济格局重塑等弹性避险需求增强了黄金的战略配置 价值。 同时，央行购金是人民币国际化的必经之路。从长期交易策略来看，伴随着美元信用体系受损、全球货 币体系重构以及全球资产重估，非美资产相对占优，黄金仍将是长期的资产配置品种。 受货币财政双宽的流动性宽松支撑的贵金属节前冲高回落，节后地缘溢价走强或构成新的市场驱动。 【机构观点】 主力合约表现方面，沪金跌0.31%至1002.2，沪银跌2.99%至19020；铂跌2.47%至598.5，钯涨1.71%至 475.95。我国12月末黄金储备规模为7415万盎司，环比增加3万盎司，为连续第14个月增加。美国2025 年12月ISM服务业PMI指数上升1.8点至54.4，为2024年10月以来的最高水平。美国2025年12月ADP就业 人数增4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The evaluation of the Renminbi (RMB) exchange rate should not be limited to its value against the US dollar but should consider a basket of currencies and the actual effective exchange rate, as the RMB's competitiveness is increasingly driven by industrial upgrades and import substitution rather than currency depreciation [1][4]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB has transitioned from a one-way appreciation to a two-way fluctuation since early 2014, with significant volatility observed post the "8-11 exchange rate reform" in 2015, where the RMB experienced fluctuations of 10%-15% [2]. - During the pandemic, the RMB depreciated to 7.19 against the USD but rebounded to around 6.3 in 2022 due to China's effective pandemic control and its role in the global supply chain [2]. - Over the past year, the RMB has shown an overall appreciation of approximately 5%, decreasing from a high of 7.4 to around 7.0 [2]. Group 2: Effective Exchange Rate Assessment - The RMB exchange rate index has shown a weakening trend, despite a 5% appreciation against the USD in the first half of the year, indicating that the nominal effective exchange rate is not the sole indicator of currency strength [3][4]. - The actual effective exchange rate (REER) is crucial for assessing export competitiveness, as it reflects the true value of the currency against a basket of currencies [3][4]. Group 3: Trade Competitiveness and Currency Management - China's export competitiveness has improved significantly over the past thirty years, with recent strong performance in the electric vehicle sector and enhanced import substitution capabilities, indicating a reduced reliance on currency depreciation for export stimulation [10]. - The RMB's nominal effective exchange rate has increased by 40% from 2005 to 2025, aligning closely with the projected annual appreciation rate of 2% based on the Balassa-Samuelson effect [6]. - The historical analysis shows that the RMB's effective exchange rate is currently undervalued by approximately 24%, primarily due to inflation differentials between China and Western countries [9]. Group 4: International Balance of Payments and Exchange Rate Dynamics - The relationship between the exchange rate and international balance of payments is bidirectional; while the exchange rate is influenced by the balance of payments, it also affects it [12]. - Recent trends indicate that changes in RMB exchange rate expectations have led to significant shifts in capital flows, with a surplus in currency conversion reflecting a positive outlook on the RMB's value [12].

Core Insights - The 2025 Bloomberg China Bond Underwriting Rankings have been released, highlighting market trends and key players in the bond market [4][5]. Group 1: Panda Bonds and Credit Bonds - As of December 31, 2025, the issuance of Panda bonds by foreign institutions in China reached 183.9 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 5.62% compared to the same period last year [6]. - The total issuance of credit bonds in China for 2025 was approximately 19.08 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of about 6.85% year-on-year [8]. - New initiatives such as debt restructuring and the pilot program for company bond renewals are expected to enhance credit risk management and improve liquidity in the credit bond market [8]. Group 2: Rankings and Market Shares - Guotai Junan Securities topped the 2025 China Bond Rankings with a market share of 5.901%, followed closely by CITIC Securities at 5.792% and Bank of China at 5.122% [10]. - In the corporate bond rankings, Guotai Junan Securities led with a market share of 12.531%, followed by CITIC Securities at 12.319% and CITIC Construction Investment at 10.756% [10]. - In the offshore RMB bond market (excluding certificates of deposit), HSBC ranked first with a market share of 6.713%, while Bank of China and Orient Securities followed [10]. Group 3: Offshore Bond Market - The issuance of offshore bonds (excluding certificates of deposit) by Chinese enterprises exceeded 2.05 trillion yuan in 2025, marking a significant increase of approximately 42.17% year-on-year [18]. - The issuance of US dollar bonds by Chinese enterprises surpassed 164.3 billion USD (approximately 1.17 trillion yuan), reflecting a growth of about 62.25% compared to 2024 [18]. - The issuance of dim sum bonds reached 707.2 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of about 9.61% [18]. Group 4: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit reached approximately 34.02 trillion yuan in 2025, up 6.54% from the previous year, driven by demand from banks and foreign investors [12]. - Local government bond issuance for 2025 was about 10.29 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 5.26% year-on-year, with general bonds at 2.61 trillion yuan and special bonds at 7.68 trillion yuan [14]. - The yield spread between US dollar and RMB bonds is currently around 230 basis points, and further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could narrow this spread, potentially boosting the issuance of Chinese dollar bonds [24].

当前，全球经济格局加速演变，准确理解中国宏观趋势与市场机遇尤为重要，国际金融机构正深入研 判"十五五"开局之年的发展路径与投资机会。 新年伊始，来自汇丰银行、渣打银行等多家国际金融机构的首席经济学家、投资策略总监接受了证券时 报记者的采访，多家机构不约而同地将"十五五"规划建议作为分析核心，从增长目标、政策重点、产业 动能到资产"跟投"，系统勾勒出一幅以"内需主导、创新驱动、高水平开放"为关键词的中国经济新图 景。 保持中高速增长 向内需与创新要动力 对于2026年中国经济的增速设定，外资机构给出了贴近"潜在增长水平"的预测。 渣打银行大中华区及北亚首席经济学家丁爽预计，2026年的增长目标将设定在4.5%—5%，实际增速预 测为4.6%。"这一目标与潜在增长水平及2035年长期发展目标相匹配，也意味着增长模式将更侧重内需 主导与创新驱动。"丁爽指出。 汇丰银行环球投资研究大中华区首席经济学家刘晶认为，中国经济将继续推进结构性转型并保持合理增 长。他强调，在进出口更加趋于平衡的同时，包括消费和投资在内的国内需求将成为驱动增长的主要动 能。 "渣打银行自身也超配中国股票，预期定向的政策刺激，以及与人工智能主题相 ...

当前，全球经济格局加速演变，准确理解中国宏观趋势与市场机遇尤为重要，国际金 融机构正深入研判"十五五"开局之年的发展路径与投资机会。 新年伊始，来自汇丰银行、渣打银行等多家国际金融机构的首席经济学家、投资策略总监接受了 证券时报记者的采访，多家机构不约而同地将"十五五"规划建议作为分析核心，从增长目标、政 策重点、产业动能到资产"跟投"，系统勾勒出一幅以"内需主导、创新驱动、高水平开放"为关键 词的中国经济新图景。 保持中高速增长 向内需与创新要动力 对于2026年中国经济的增速设定，外资机构给出了贴近"潜在增长水平"的预测。 渣打银行大中华区及北亚首席经济学家丁爽预计，2026年的增长目标将设定在4.5%—5%，实际 增速预测为4.6%。"这一目标与潜在增长水平及2035年长期发展目标相匹配，也意味着增长模式 将更侧重内需主导与创新驱动。"丁爽指出。 汇丰银行环球投资研究大中华区首席经济学家刘晶认为，中国经济将继续推进结构性转型并保持 合理增长。他强调，在进出口更加趋于平衡的同时，包括消费和投资在内的国内需求将成为驱动 增长的主要动能。 上述判断与"十五五"规划建议中"居民消费率明显提高"的目标高度契合。刘 ...