尽管如此，西太平洋银行并不认为会自动连续加息。目前政策已被判定为限制性水平，且剩余的通胀降 温任务相对温和。最可能的结果是2月后采取观望策略，同时明确传达如果通胀未能如预期放缓，澳洲 联储已准备好再次行动。（新华财经） 西太平洋银行预测澳洲联储将在2月会议上加息25个基点，认为持续高企的通胀为政策收紧投下了"决定 性一票"，同时维持该行基本判断，即此次加息将是一次性举措，而非长期加息周期的开始。 西太平洋银行认为，在经济接近充分就业和完全产能利用的情况下，精确识别经济闲置产能的难度。在 这种环境下，通胀结果成为最可靠的政策指引。该行指出，潜在通胀动能目前已高于平稳回归至澳洲联 储2-3%目标区间所需的水平，令澳洲联储几乎没有推迟行动的空间。 ...

We got the latest CPI inflation read for Australia today, and it came in hotter than expected at 3.8% in the 12mth to December CY2025; trimmed mean or core inflation is lower, too, at 3.3% but still sticky, and outside the target band.Listen to the HotCopper podcast for in-depth discussions and insights on all the biggest headlines from throughout the week. On Spotify, Apple, and more.So what does that mean for us investors? Well, it’s looking like Australia is going to take one big backwards step and raise ...

日本央行委员会成员在去年12月讨论政策时，对日元贬值影响价格趋势的程度表示了日益增长的担忧， 随后在会议上决定将基准利率上调至1995年以来的最高水平。 根据周三公布的会议纪要，一些成员表示，"在决定是否提高政策利率时，央行应考虑日元贬值对通胀 率的影响，在某些情况下，还应考虑对核心通胀的影响。" "该成员表示，央行应考虑在观察经济活动和物价反应的同时，每隔几个月调整一次货币宽松程度。" 日本的消费者通胀率已连续四年超过日本央行2%的通胀目标，预计本周五公布的东京CPI数据将显示这 一趋势在1月份继续延续。 "我们将根据去年9月份的联合声明，在必要时与美国当局密切协调，继续对汇率变动采取适当的应对措 施，"财务大臣片山皋月周二晚间在七国集团（G7）财长会议后告诉记者，他们在会上讨论了关键矿产 问题。 日本央行在上周五结束的最新会议上维持借贷成本不变。不过，有一张反对票呼吁再次加息。此外，该 央行在季度展望中上调的通胀预测超出了经济学家的预期，这增加了对4月可能加息的猜测。日本央行 的下一个决定将在3月19日做出。 尽管日本央行强调去年12月19日的加息是因为经济发展符合其预期，但会议纪要表明，委员会成员对弱 ...

格隆汇1月28日｜西太平洋银行：鉴于季度通胀率连续第二次达到令人不安的高位，预计澳洲联储将于2 月加息。 ...

澳大利亚上季度核心通胀率依然居高不下，表明物价压力并未以预期的速度降温，并进一步向澳洲联储 提供了证据，表明今年可能需要提高利率。澳大利亚第四季度剔除波动性较大项目后的消费者价格指数 （CPI）环比上涨0.9%，该数据与经济学家的预期相符。与一年前相比，该指标上涨了3.4%，高于此前 预测的3.3%的涨幅，也超过了澳洲联储2-3%的目标区间。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current surge in gold prices has led to increased public interest and discussions about whether now is the right time to invest in gold, with concerns about potentially buying at a peak price [1] Historical Context - Gold prices reached a historical high of $850 per ounce in 1980 amid economic stagnation and rising inflation in the U.S., similar to current conditions [1] - The appointment of Paul Volcker as the new Federal Reserve Chairman marked a turning point, as he implemented aggressive interest rate hikes, raising the federal funds rate from around 11% to 20%, leading to a significant drop in gold prices [3] - Following the initial drop, gold prices continued to decline, reaching as low as $300 per ounce by the early 2000s, marking a prolonged bear market lasting nearly two decades [4] Economic Influences - The recovery of the U.S. economy in the 1990s, characterized by low inflation and a booming stock market, diminished the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4] - The 2008 financial crisis saw a temporary drop in gold prices due to widespread asset liquidation, but subsequent monetary easing by central banks led to a resurgence in gold prices starting in 2009 [6] - The market experienced another significant drop in early 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but rapid monetary stimulus led to a quick recovery and subsequent price increases [8] Key Factors Affecting Gold Prices - U.S. monetary policy, particularly Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, has been a primary driver of gold price fluctuations, with aggressive rate hikes typically leading to sharp declines in gold prices [9] - The overall health of the global economy influences investor risk appetite, with stronger economic conditions leading to reduced demand for gold [9] - Unexpected events, such as financial crises or pandemics, initially trigger panic selling across asset classes, including gold, but later monetary easing can enhance gold's appeal as a hedge against inflation [9] Current Market Dynamics - The current market is influenced by a combination of factors, including a Federal Reserve in a rate-cutting cycle, a fragile global economic recovery, and ongoing geopolitical tensions, which bolster gold's appeal as a safe haven [11] - Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases since 2022, with net purchases expected to exceed 1,000 tons annually, indicating a long-term strategic shift towards gold as a reserve asset [11] Future Observations - Key observations for the gold market in 2026 include the trajectory of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and the potential for a new leadership direction, which could impact gold holding costs [11] - Historical data suggests that after gold prices surpass historical highs, the market seeks new psychological resistance levels, with some analysts eyeing the $4,800 per ounce mark as a significant threshold [11] - The sustainability of central bank gold purchases will be crucial in determining the strength of price support for gold [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing strength against the US dollar (USD), driven by the Reserve Bank of Australia's hawkish stance and expectations of potential intervention in the yen by Japan and the US [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate in Australia unexpectedly dropped from 4.3% to 4.1%, outperforming the market expectation of 4.4% [2]. - Employment increased significantly by 65,200 jobs, primarily driven by full-time positions [2]. - The national capacity utilization rate rose to 83.3%, the highest in 18 months, indicating that businesses are operating close to full capacity [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - There is a growing consensus that the Reserve Bank of Australia may need to raise interest rates in February due to signs of capacity constraints in the economy [2][3]. - The Australian Federal Bank's strategy team suggests that if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) exceeds a year-on-year increase of 4%, the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate hike in February will significantly increase [3]. - Despite differing opinions on the timing of rate hikes, there is a general agreement that the Reserve Bank of Australia can no longer maintain a loose monetary policy stance [3].

市场预期，降息或将推迟至5月鲍威尔任期结束后由其继任者推动。 当地时间1月27日（周二），为期两天的美联储议息会议在美国华盛顿特区正式召开。 自去年9月起，美联储连续三次议息会议采取降息，累计降息75个基点，将基准利率下调至3.50%-3.75% 的区间。虽然，重启降息周期源于美国就业市场招聘放缓，然而一系列降息决策的出台过程颇具争议 ——部分美联储官员明确反对降息，而理事米兰则主张以更快的节奏下调利率，两派意见的分歧多次公 开显现。 第一财经记者汇总发现，上一次会议以来的经济数据显示，美国劳动力市场和通胀趋势均无明显变化， 就业增长表现疲软，但在经济增长和消费支出向好的背景下，12月失业率回落至4.4%。美联储锚定2% 通胀目标所参考的个人消费支出价格指数PCE去年11月录得 2.8%，略高于市场预期。 尽管当前 "不招聘、不裁员"的状态远非经济复苏的强劲信号，但受政府停摆等因素影响，通胀相关数 据杂音较多，几乎无法为何时重启降息提供指引。因此美联储仍有时间进一步厘清通胀的真实走势。 因此，在鲍威尔的新闻发布会上，其有关未来政策路径的言论将受到重点关注。值得一提的是，其发言 的重点除了货币政策讨论，独立性的 ...

另外，日本央行上周五维持政策利率在0.75%不变，但上调中长期通胀预测，行长植田和男明确表态若 经济形势如预期发展将继续提高利率，为进一步收紧政策留下空间。植田和男在随后的新闻发布会上强 调，潜在通胀将继续温和上升，12月加息后金融环境仍保持宽松。他同时就近期长期利率快速上升表态 称，日本央行将在特殊情况下灵活开展债券操作，可能采取措施鼓励稳定收益率的形成。植田和男在阐 述未来政策路径时表示，若经济形势如预期般发展，日本央行将继续提高利率。他指出，加息影响广泛 波及实体经济和物价尚需相当一段时间，将密切审视过去加息对企业、家庭活动、经济和物价产生的各 种影响。 今日需要关注的数据有，德国1月IFO商业景气指数和美国11月耐用品订单月率初值。 黄金/美元 上周五黄金大幅攀升，续刷历史高位，现汇价交投于5060附近。除贸易紧张局势挥之不去激发的避险情 绪持续对黄金构成支撑外，地缘紧张局势升温也是支撑黄金攀升的重要因素。此外，美元指数走软也对 黄金构成了有力的支撑。今日关注5100附近的压力情况，下方支撑在5000附近。 美元/日元 上周五美元/日元大幅下挫，刷新4周低位，现汇价交投于154.00附近。除获利回吐和 ...

市场主要反对意见包括工资不会下降和大规模财政刺激导致经济过热， 以及欧洲央行对当前 2%利率水平感到满意。但实际数据若证明不实施 货币刺激无法让通胀回升至目标水平，讨论方向将会转变。 Q&A 大摩闭门会：全球主要央行路径展望 20260124 摘要 预计 2026 年美国经济增速将与 2025 年持平，关键在于通胀走势。企 业转嫁关税成本至少持续到 2026 年一季度末，之后通胀压力有望缓解， 美联储或于下半年降息一到两次。 2025 年美国经济超预期表现部分源于贸易和库存波动的机械性结果， 以及消费偏离基本面，AI 支出和财政政策的提振作用难以进一步增强， 因此 2026 年经济加速增长的可能性较低。 美联储可能不按预测降息，若重要法案对市场信心和企业支出刺激超预 期，可能推动经济出现需求驱动的信心提振，导致通胀放缓不及预期。 对日本经济前景持乐观态度，预计 GDP 保持稳健增长。消费者将逐步摆 脱供给端通胀导致实际工资增长低迷局面，转向实际工资加速增长阶段， 从而支撑实际消费并推动通胀从供给驱动转向需求驱动。 日元贬值给日本央行带来挑战，需求端压力将逐步累积并推动通胀上升， 日本央行或需提前加息以避免汇率 ...