日本央行行长植田和男本周五料将把基准利率上调至三十年来最高水平，但在政府对低成本融资的依赖 与日元走弱推高进口通胀之间，未来政策路径正变得愈发复杂。 市场普遍预计，日本央行将在为期两天的货币政策会议结束时，将政策利率上调25个基点至0.75%。这 是植田上任以来，首次出现受访经济学家一致预期加息的情形。媒体调查显示，50位受访经济学家全部 预计本次加息，而隔夜指数掉期(OIS)定价也显示，本周加息的概率已升至90%以上，较10月底几乎翻 倍，市场同时已完全计入到2026年10月前再次加息的预期。 此次加息背景下，日本新任首相高市早苗的处境尤为微妙。这位日本历史上首位女性首相去年曾将"加 息"形容为"愚蠢之举"，但在生活成本持续上升、通胀侵蚀民众购买力、执政党支持率下滑的现实压力 下，她自去年10月上任以来已避免公开批评植田逐步退出超宽松政策的计划，而是将政策重心放在遏制 通胀上。 不过，高市政府同样需要防止国债收益率过快上行。日本政府正着手编制下一财年的预算，通常在12月 下旬公布。日本10年期国债收益率本月一度升至1.97%，创18年来新高，促使植田上周公开警示称，收 益率上升速度"略快了一些"。 分析人士 ...

【导读】日本银行（央行）12月18~19日将召开金融政策决定会议，上调目前为0.5％的政策利率，现已 进入最终协调阶段。最可能的方案是加息0.25％至0.75％，达到1995年以后即30年来的最高利率水平 大家好，简单关注一下这周日本央行准备加息的消息。 12月15日，日元跑赢所有G10货币，原因是投资者加大了对日本央行将在本周晚些时候加息的押注。 截至发稿，美元兑日元下跌0.48%，报155.05。 日本央行周一公布的季度"短观"（Tankan）企业调查显示，日本大型制造业企业信心升至四年来最高水 平，进一步强化了市场对央行即将行动的预期。日本内阁官房长官木原稔也表示，货币政策的具体内容 应交由日本央行决定。 经济学家一致预期日本央行将在本月上调基准利率。不过，仍有部分市场参与者押注日元会走弱，因为 即便日本央行这次加息，日本收益率预计仍将明显低于美国。投资者接下来将关注日本央行行长植田和 男是否会就未来加息路径释放线索，这可能决定日元后续方向。 新加坡法国外贸银行资深策略师David Forrester表示，除了短观数据强劲外，"木原的表态也推动市场上 调了对在本周可能加息之后、未来追加加息的预期"。但他 ...

Group 1 - The Japanese yen has appreciated to around 155 yen per dollar, reaching a new high in over a week, reflecting investor expectations for the Bank of Japan's upcoming monetary policy meeting [1] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point increase in the benchmark interest rate to 0.75%, with a focus on the forward guidance from Governor Kazuo Ueda for signals regarding the pace and intensity of monetary tightening through 2025 [1] - Analysts predict that the policy rate may reach 1.0% by July 2026, driven by resilient domestic economic data and persistent consumer inflation above the Bank of Japan's historical target [1] Group 2 - Political resistance to interest rate hikes appears to be diminishing, as the Suga cabinet is unlikely to oppose rate increases due to the yen's continued weakness, which has raised import costs and exacerbated inflationary pressures [1] - Technical analysis indicates that the USD/JPY has completed an initial decline to 154.34, followed by a corrective rebound to 156.93, with expectations of a new downward wave targeting 154.73 [2] - The H1 chart shows a developing downward wave with a near-term target of 154.82, followed by a potential corrective rebound to 155.45, but the main downward trend is expected to resume, pushing the exchange rate down to 153.52 [4] Group 3 - The market is betting on a significant interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, leading to a continued strengthening of the yen, while technical indicators across multiple time frames show a clear bearish structure for USD/JPY [5] - Despite the possibility of short-term corrective rebounds, the overall trend points to further weakness, with key downward targets at 154.73 on the H4 chart and 153.52 on the H1 chart [5] - Governor Ueda's policy guidance on Friday will be crucial in determining whether the current technical correction can evolve into a sustained trend reversal [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its policy interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75% during the upcoming monetary policy meeting, marking the highest level in 30 years since 1995 [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The quarterly Tankan survey indicates that confidence among large manufacturing firms in Japan has reached its highest level in four years, reinforcing market expectations for the Bank of Japan's imminent action [3]. - The market anticipates a 94% probability of an interest rate hike during the upcoming meeting, with expectations that rates could rise above 0.75% before the end of the current tightening cycle [4]. Group 2: Wage Growth Expectations - A report from the Bank of Japan reveals that most firms expect wage increases in the fiscal year 2026 to be consistent with the previous fiscal year, which had already seen significant wage growth [4][5]. - The labor shortage situation has led many companies to believe that maintaining wage growth similar to the previous year is necessary to retain employees and enhance work motivation [5].

【导读】 日本银行（央行）12月18~19日将召开金融政策决定会议，上调目前为0.5％的政策利率，现 已进入最终协调阶段。最可能的方案是加息0.25％至0.75％，达到1995年以后即30年来的最高利率水平 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，简单关注一下这周日本央行准备加息的消息。 12月15日，日元跑赢所有G10货币，原因是投资者加大了对日本央行将在本周晚些时候加息 的 押注 。 截至发稿，美元兑日元下跌0.48%，报155.05。 | 美元兑日元 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 汇 USDJPY | | | | | | | | 155.0500 -0.7600 -0.4878% | | | | | | | | 12-15 17:06:33 | | | | | | | | 今开 | 155.7300 | 最高 | 155.9800 | 振幅 | | 0.6803% | | 昨日 | 155.8100 | 最低 | 154.9200 | 波幅 | | 1.0600 | | 分时 五日 | | 日K | 園K | 月K | 更多 ...

12月10日，美联储终于再次宣布降息，此次降息的幅度为25个基点。这也是2025年以来美联储第三次降息，符合此前的市场预期。 但美联储内部意见分歧加剧，据媒体报道，在就降息问题进行表决时，有3个人投了反对票。 因为美联储主席鲍威尔任期即将届满，因此，外界认为，这有可能是鲍威尔卸任之前的最后一次利率调整。 鲍威尔称利率处于"中性"区间上端，美联储将继续观察美国经济走向。市场对明年降息路径存在疑问，市场担心，若白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特接任美 联储主席，有可能出现大幅度降息。 特朗普当天表示，美联储最新宣布的降息决定太过小心谨慎，降息幅度太小，"本来至少可以再翻一倍"， 也就是一次性下降50个基点。 今年以来，特朗普多次要求美联储降息，为目前疲弱的美国经济注入流动性。但美联储因为顾及已经较高的通胀和物价，在降息问题上始终态度谨慎。因 此，特朗普多次公开批评鲍威尔，认为他不称职，并一度在社交媒体上暗示鲍威尔应该辞职。 此外，美国财政部长贝森特此前也曾被认为是美联储主席的潜在继任人选。贝森特是特朗普本届政府的财经政策核心官员，今年4月特朗普发动对全球各国 和地区的关税战以来，贝森特一直在主导美国与其他国家的贸易谈判 ...

格隆汇12月15日｜花旗预测，随着通胀风险上升，澳洲联储将在2026年加息两次，分别在2月和5月。 ...

Monetary Policy Outlook - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to discuss interest rate hikes in its upcoming meeting on December 19, with market expectations for a rate increase reaching approximately 90%[1] - If the BOJ raises rates to 0.75%, it would mark the highest borrowing cost in Japan since 1995[1] - The primary drivers for this policy adjustment include medium-term inflation expectations, wage growth prospects, and exchange rate pressures, rather than short-term price fluctuations[1] Economic Impact - The persistent depreciation of the yen has led to increased import costs and a solidified trade deficit, significantly impacting Japan's economic fundamentals[1] - The BOJ's rate hike aims to narrow the interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S., stabilize the yen, and address trade imbalances[1] - Japan's government debt has reached 1,323.72 trillion yen, accounting for 263% of GDP, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability amid rising interest rates[1] Market Reactions - The anticipated rate hike is expected to lead to structural adjustments in major asset classes, with the yen likely benefiting from the narrowing interest rate differential and triggering unwinding of carry trades[2] - Short-term bond yields are projected to rise sharply, while long-term yields may see a slight increase, further intensifying fiscal pressure on the Japanese government[2] - The stock market may experience short-term volatility, but structural differentiation is expected in the medium term, with bank stocks likely benefiting from improved net interest margins[2] Future Projections - The BOJ is likely to continue its rate hike cycle, with one to two additional hikes anticipated in 2026, contingent on wage growth and core inflation trends[3] - The government's aggressive fiscal policies may face constraints from both internal and external pressures, limiting their impact on the BOJ's monetary policy decisions[3]

快报！快报 日本突然宣布了 12月12日消息，下周四和周五（12月18日至19日），日本央行将召开年内最后一场货币政策会议。 目前，市场几乎已经认定 ——利率要从0.5%上调至0.75%，或许是"板上钉钉"的事。 植田和男行长早就放话了，说"实际借贷成本还是负的"，意思就是虽然现在利率是0.5%，但实际 还是负利率，所以还得继续加。这可是日本近18年来少有的一次"断奶"！ 为啥这么急？主要是日元太弱了，从年初142兑1美元，一路跌到157，创10个月来 的新低。日本90%的能源靠进口，日元贬值让能源进口成本暴涨28%，老百姓的菜篮子都涨了。 更有趣的是，这和美联储的行动完全相反。美联储12月10日 刚宣布降息25个基点，而日本却要加息，全球货币政策史上都少见。日本这次加息，不光是为了自己，还可能是为了稳住日元，避免进一步贬值。但问题来 了，日本政府债务占GDP的260%，全球第一，加息对政府压力太大了。 现在市场早不关心"会不会加"，而是开始琢磨会"加几次"。 日本央行行长植田和男 说的"恰当判断"，恐怕是这十几年来最艰难的一次判断了。说白了，日本经济这"老汉"，是该站起来了，还是会被自己的债务压垮，就看下周 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates for the first time since 1995, with a market betting on a 25 basis point increase at the upcoming policy meeting on December 19 [1][11] - Japan's core CPI reached 2.5%, aligning with the central bank's inflation target, providing a rationale for potential rate hikes [3][17] - The depreciation of the yen has led to increased import costs, contributing to domestic inflation and public dissatisfaction [5][16] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan's monetary policy has been characterized by a gradual approach, contrasting with the aggressive rate hikes seen in the U.S. Federal Reserve [8][10] - Market expectations for a rate hike have surged to 88%, the highest since 1995, but even with a potential increase, Japan's rates would remain the lowest among developed countries [11][13] - The current inflation is largely driven by rising energy and raw material prices, with concerns that a sustainable wage-price spiral has not yet formed [17][19] Group 3 - Japan's government debt exceeds 260% of GDP, the highest among developed nations, complicating the fiscal landscape for potential rate hikes [20] - The Bank of Japan holds over 50% of government bonds, and any significant rise in long-term yields could adversely affect its balance sheet and the financial market [22] - Global economic conditions, including potential interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve, could impact Japan's monetary policy decisions and the yen's value [25][27] Group 4 - The Bank of Japan is likely to enter a prolonged period of low interest rates and gradual rate increases, as the legacy of three decades of monetary easing presents significant challenges [29]