Group 1 - The average tariff on imported goods in the U.S. has surged from 1.2% last year to 17%, marking the highest level since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1933 [1][3][6] - Tariffs vary significantly by country, with Canada facing a rise from 25% to 35% due to political decisions, and Brazil experiencing a combined tariff of 50% on certain goods [3][4] - The U.S. tariff policy reflects a "America First" approach, imposing high tariffs indiscriminately, even on allied nations, which has led to widespread criticism and concerns about international trade relations [6][10] Group 2 - The tariff increases have resulted in higher costs for U.S. companies, with Ford estimating an additional $800 million in costs and Procter & Gamble planning to raise prices on a quarter of its products [6][8] - The job market has shown weakness, with only 73,000 jobs added in July, significantly below expectations, attributed to disruptions in supply chains caused by the tariff war [8][10] - Ordinary American households are expected to face increased expenses, with estimates suggesting an additional $2,400 per year due to rising prices on essential goods [8][10]

美政府的所谓"对等关税"被认为是其缩减贸易逆差、使美国制造业回流等计划的核心。目前，包括瑞士 在内的一些国家正试图在7日的最后期限前与美国达成降低关税的协议。此外，预计特朗普将在未来几 周公布对药品、半导体、关键矿产和其它重要工业产品征收关税的计划，这意味着企业和投资者将面临 持续的不确定性。 美媒认为，关税对经济的长期影响仍不明朗，批评人士指出，关税将增加美国消费者和企业的成本，并 加剧通货膨胀。 （文章来源：中国新闻网） 中新网8月5日电(记者张乃月)当地时间8月4日，美国海关与边境保护局发布指南，概述了将如何执行美 总统特朗普上周宣布的关税政策。根据这些政策，预计美国将对数十个贸易伙伴加征关税。 该指南显示，特朗普上周扩大的所谓"对等关税"将不适用于纽约时间7日凌晨零时01分前装船运往美国 的产品。该文件还列举了部分可获得豁免的产品，如特朗普第一个任期内达成的美墨加自由贸易协定项 下产品，以及将作为援助物资发放的食品、衣物和药品等。 彭博经济研究显示，如果按此前宣布的水平实施新关税，美国平均关税税率将升至15.2%。这一数字高 于之前的13.3%，也远高于特朗普上任前2024年的2.3%。 ...

Group 1 - The latest tariffs announced by Trump will take effect on August 7, impacting a wide range of imported goods, including computers, electronics, watches, clothing, shoes, and alcoholic beverages, potentially leading to price increases for consumers [1][3]. - Goldman Sachs estimates that consumers will start feeling the impact of these tariffs within eight months [1][7]. - The new tariffs will impose rates ranging from 10% to 41% on nearly 70 countries, affecting the prices of various consumer goods [3]. Group 2 - Yale University's budget laboratory estimates that if the new tariffs are implemented indefinitely, prices for computers and other electronic products could rise by 18.2% in the short term (2 to 3 years) and by 7.7% in the long term (3 to 10 years) [4]. - Clothing, being one of the most imported goods in the U.S., is expected to see a short-term price increase of 37.5% and a long-term increase of 17.4% due to tariffs imposed on major exporting countries like China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, India, and Indonesia [4]. - Swiss watches, a significant export to the U.S. with over $4 billion in sales last year, will face a 39% tariff, likely affecting their prices [5]. Group 3 - Vietnam and Indonesia, major producers of footwear, will see tariffs of at least 19% starting next week, which could lead to increased prices for shoes [6]. - The U.S. wine and spirits market, where imported products account for 35% of total sales, will face a 15% tariff on imports from the EU, impacting prices for alcoholic beverages [6]. - Furniture and toys, primarily imported from Vietnam and China, are also expected to see price increases due to the looming tariffs, with manufacturers already warning of potential hikes [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the impact of Trump's global tariff policy, categorizing countries into different tiers based on their relationship with the U.S. [1][3] - The U.S. imposes a 25% basic tariff on India, marking it as a significant target in the trade war, while China is treated as an exception without specific tariffs mentioned [3][6] - India's reliance on U.S. markets and technology makes it vulnerable, as evidenced by the suspension of Russian oil purchases due to U.S. threats [5][6] Group 2 - China's unique position as the only country not subjected to specific tariffs stems from its economic strength and strategic responses, including reciprocal tariffs and leveraging non-tariff measures [6][8] - The article discusses the implications for the U.S., noting the challenges of negotiating with China without alienating other allies or harming U.S. businesses [8] - India's experience serves as a warning for other nations, while China's approach offers a model for resisting economic pressure, emphasizing the importance of national strength and strategic negotiation [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of reciprocal tariffs by the United States, detailing the changes in tariff rates and the broader implications for trade agreements with major economies [1][10]. Tariff Structure - A baseline tariff rate of 10% will apply to countries not specified in the administrative order, while differentiated rates ranging from 15% to 41% will be set based on trade deficits, negotiation outcomes, and geopolitical factors [4][6]. - A 40% penalty tariff will be imposed on goods rerouted through third countries to evade tariffs, and the exemption for international packages valued under $800 has been removed [4][6]. Specific Tariff Rates by Industry - Tariff rates vary significantly by industry, with solar products and semiconductor equipment facing the highest rates, while electric vehicles and automotive parts have lower rates [8]. Non-Tariff Requirements - The trade agreements with eight major economies include five categories of non-tariff requirements, such as market access, directed procurement commitments, and unified rules and standards [10][13]. - Specific commitments include significant investments in the U.S., increased defense spending, and the opening of markets for U.S. agricultural products [12][13].

Group 1: Policy and Market News - Since August 8, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation will resume levying VAT on the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds, while the interest income of bonds issued before August 8 and subsequent issuances will continue to be exempt from VAT until maturity [1] - The US added only 73,000 non - farm jobs in July, the lowest in 9 months, far below the expected 110,000, with the previous two months' data revised down by 258,000, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%, indicating a sharp slowdown in the labor market [1] - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen the implementation and supervision of interest rate policies, and increase financing support for key areas [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a special energy - saving supervision task list for the polysilicon industry in 2025, involving 41 enterprises [1] - US President Trump signed an executive order to impose counter - tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on countries or regions that have not reached an agreement with the US, with the tariffs taking effect on August 7, 2025 [2] Group 2: Commodity Market - Key commodities to focus on include urea, lithium carbonate, asphalt, crude oil, and coking coal [3] - Among commodity sectors, non - metallic building materials rose 2.83%, precious metals 27.61%, oilseeds 12.40%, non - ferrous metals 21.40%, soft commodities 2.58%, coal - coking - steel - mining 14.32%, energy 3.18%, chemicals 11.74%, grains 1.16%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.78% [6] Group 3: Stock and Bond Market - The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.37% daily and monthly, but rose 6.21% annually; the SSE 50 fell 0.79% daily and monthly, and rose 2.58% annually; the CSI 300 fell 0.51% daily and monthly, and rose 3.05% annually [8] - Among other equity indices, the CSI 500 fell 0.21% daily and monthly, and rose 8.51% annually; the S&P 500 fell 1.60% daily and monthly, and rose 6.06% annually; the Hang Seng Index fell 1.07% daily and monthly, and rose 22.17% annually, etc. [9] - For fixed - income products, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.02% daily, 0.05% monthly, and 0.45% annually; the 5 - year Treasury bond futures had no daily and monthly change, and fell 0.77% annually; the 2 - year Treasury bond futures had no daily and monthly change, and fell 0.61% annually [9] - In the commodity market, the CRB commodity index fell 1.50% daily and monthly, and 0.49% annually; WTI crude oil fell 2.83% daily, 2.77% monthly, and 6.42% annually; London spot gold rose 2.22% daily and monthly, and 28.14% annually [9] - The US dollar index fell 1.36% daily and monthly, and 9.03% annually; the CBOE volatility index rose 21.89% daily and monthly, and 17.46% annually [9]

在半导体领域，市场高度关注这是否将影响晶片制造与供应链的重组。 如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 来源 ：内容来自半导体芯闻综合 。 美国总统川普重返白宫后，其贸易政策较第一任发生很大程度的变化，随着新关税几乎落地，分析 师认为，目前已公布的税率可能更接近「中长期将固定下来的版本」。据报导，美国伯恩斯坦 （Bernstein）分析师认为，目前市场正密切关注特定行业，包括半导体和制药等行业征收关税， 尤其对于晶片制造商而言，半导体「232条款」可能针对「相关终端设备」，并且「可能包括实施 零件层面的关税」。 伯恩斯坦指出，白宫内部正考虑将半导体与制造等产业纳入新关税清单，并可能针对「终端设备」 及「元件层级」课征特别关税。若真成形，这将对晶圆代工业者与封装测试产业产生不小冲击，台 积电（TSMC）作为全球关键供应商，势必再度被推上聚光灯焦点。 分析师指出，从川普与其团队近期发言来看，这类产业特定关税政策，很可能近期就会正式公布。 不过，目前为止，他们并未调整涵盖的晶片股预测或评级。 据报导，这项名为「对等关税」（reciprocal tariffs）的政策，将欧盟、日本、南韩等主要经济体 的产品课以15 ...

01 PART ONE 主要观点 PMI 2012 31 2025-08-04 F3014717 Z0013223 | 影响因素 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 本周国内大宗商品大幅走弱，其中，工业品、农产品同步下跌。主要原因一是美国如期在8月1日征收关税，二是美联储按兵不动，基调偏鹰，压制市场的风险偏 | | | 好；三是，国内政策预期明显降温，一方面增量政策预期落空，另一方面反内卷政策低于预期。 1）当地时间7月31日，特朗普签署"进一步修改对等关税税率"行政令，确定了对多个国家和地区征收的10%~41%不等的新对等关税税率，并于8月7日正式生效。 | | | 2）美国联邦公开市场委员会以9票赞成，2票反对，连续第五次会议维持利率在4.25%-4.50%区间不变。此前金融市场普遍预期央行将在9月降息，但鲍威尔认为经 济未来面临的部分风险有所上升，并对此表示"下结论为时尚早"，被解读为鹰派表态。3）美国二季度实际GDP环比大幅回升同比持平于2.0%，其中居民消费、 | | | 非住宅投资增长势头较为强劲，净出口逆差收窄，呈现出超预期的总体韧性。4）7月非农数据显示美国劳动力市场正 ...

最近，中美双方的第三轮贸易磋商落下帷幕，但结果却并不尽如人意，尤其在关税问题上，双方始终未能达成一致意见。据悉，美国计划实施的对等关税政 策将在24小时内生效，也就是说，如果在这段时间内未能与美国进行有效沟通，相关政策将正式启动。但值得注意的是，中国在这一局势中却显得有些例 外。此前的会谈中，美国方面曾表示愿意延迟政策的实施，但具体的延迟时间尚未确定，这就意味着美国留出最大的余地给中国，而中国也肯定会全力应 对。那么，接下来的局势将如何演变呢？ 进入七月，特朗普显然变得更加忙碌。自从他签署对等关税的行政令以来，相关延期的期限也快到点了。为了避免影响到国家利益，许多国家都在加快与美 国的谈判步伐，试图寻找到一个平衡点。根据媒体的报道，目前美国已与其主要盟友达成了基本的协议框架，接下来只需着手处理一些细节问题。 当然，不是所有国家都有能力进行如此精准有效的反制。印度曾试图效法中国采取反制措施，自认作为大国的他们可以获得与美国谈判的筹码。然而，印度 发现自己并没有让美国忌惮的资本，无非是寄希望于与特朗普的个人友谊，希望能因此获得一些优待。而现实却给了他们一记响亮的耳光，特朗普如若在乎 与外国领导人的关系，就不会推行 ...

在美国总统特朗普公布对多国调整后的"对等关税"后，耶鲁大学8月1日公布的一项最新研究表明，美国消费者眼下正面临1934年以来最高 关税税率，关税将使2025年美国家庭平均支出增加2400美元。 该预算实验室认为， 关税政策将导致美国2025年和2026年实际国内生产总值增长率每年降低0.5个百分点 。同时关税还将导致到2025年 底，美国失业率上升0.3个百分点，到2026年底，失业率上升0.7个百分点。 该分析评估了截至7月31日美国实施的所有关税以及外国采取的报复性措施所产生的影响，包括将于8月7日生效的新的 "对等" 关税清单。 平均有效关税税率并非固定值，而是会随着国家政策、经济形势以及国际贸易环境的变化而调整。 耶鲁大学预算实验室根据"实时现行政策"来分析关税，假定截至某一日期的政策将永久持续下去，即使该政策被制定为临时政策。 当地时间7月31日，特朗普签署行政令确定了对多个国家和地区征收的 "对等关税" 税率，具体税率从10%至41%不等。其中，大部分关税 将于8月7日生效。 据央视新闻报道，美国耶鲁大学预算实验室最新的研究数据表明， 截至7月31日，美国对进口商品征收的平均有效关税税率达18.3 ...