跟美方聊了两个小时，欧盟派出的交涉人员，现在脑子里恐怕只有一个字：晕。 之前，对于那些愿意谈判的国家，美国总统特朗普把自己的关税措施，延后了90天，这无疑让欧盟看到了和谈的希望，赶紧暂停了对美国的关税反制，派出 一队人马飞往华盛顿。 这回领头的，是欧盟分管贸易和经济安全事务的谢夫乔维奇委员，他带着一群欧盟外交官，跟美国商务部长卢特尼克会谈，想要彻底让美国取消关税。 出发之前，欧盟这边就想好了各种对策，比如同意向特朗普让步，清零对美的工业品关税，但同样，欧委会主席冯德莱恩也强调，如果双方谈不拢，欧盟也 会扩大对美国的反制。 不过，如果特朗普从一开始，就没打算跟欧盟各退一步，那么他这种谈判方式，是不是就能理解了呢？之前，他曾向美国人吹嘘，只有自己的谈判方式 能"宰"他们，换其他人来就是就是"贱卖"。 两个小时的会谈过后，谢夫乔维奇连美方到底是个什么立场，想要利用关税获得什么，都没有搞明白，唯一明确的一点就是，美国对欧盟征收的大部分关税 不会取消。 而与他同行的欧盟外交官，更是被特朗普政府内部的混乱给整晕了，好像每个人都能出来说两句，很难分辨哪些表态，是美方真正的政策意图，哪些只是谈 判的策略，谁有权力决策，谁的话 ...

特朗普关税：野心与现实的落差 2025042120250416 摘要 • 美国关税收入远低于预期，尽管理论上提高关税应带来千亿美元收入，但 实际数据显示，关税收入增量仅为数十亿美元，与预期相差甚远，表明关 税政策的执行效果不佳。 • 特朗普的对等关税政策可能导致全球贸易量显著收缩，美国进口弹性约为 负 0.8 至负 1，进口量显著下降，WTO 预测全球商品贸易量可能下降 1.5%，北美地区受影响更严重。 • 中国通过非直接贸易渠道向美国出口增加值利润，大约 20%的增加值通过 非直接渠道流向美国，且中国出口商品中包含其他国家零部件，使得中国 仍能保持出口增长。 • 美国从中国直接进口商品占比约为 14%，但考虑到非直接贸易渠道，中国 从美国消费者每花 100 美元购买海外商品中赚取的最终利润约为 18 美元， 较直接进口高出 30%。 • 关税政策对中国经济带来扰动，但中国具备足够的政策韧性应对，外交盟 友拓展比短期内部刺激更为重要，中国经济基本面出现积极起稳信号，资 本市场仍可保持乐观。 Q&A 特朗普关税政策的收入预期与实际差距如何？ 特朗普的关税加征政策在实际执行过程中面临显著挑战。根据 2025 年 ...

美国总统特朗普4月21日在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文，再次敦促美国联邦储备委员会作出降息决 定。特朗普在帖文中宣称"美国实际上已不存在通胀，能源、食品及其他大多数商品价格下行趋势如此 显著，几乎不可能引发通胀。但 如果'太迟先生'（注：指美联储主席鲍威尔）不立即降息，美国经济将 面临放缓风险。" 市场方面， 4月21日开盘，美股三大指数大跌，道琼斯指数跌超700点，纳斯达克指数跌约2.6%，标普 500指数跌超2%。 有分析称， 特朗普的关税政策引发的担忧压制了华尔街情绪。周末期间， 芝加哥联邦储备银行行长奥 斯坦·古尔斯比在采访中表示，这些关税可能导致美国经济活动在夏季"突然下滑"。 围绕美联储独立性的质疑也进一步打压了股市。特朗普上周四呼吁美联储降息，甚至暗示可能"解雇"鲍 威尔。白宫经济顾问凯文·哈塞特在上周五表示，总统及其团队正在研究解除鲍威尔职务的可能性。 特朗普近来频繁施压鲍威尔，要求美联储立即降息，并称鲍威尔的行动总是"又迟又错"，"越早走人越 好"。 而鲍威尔当地时间4月16日在芝加哥经济俱乐部发表讲话时说，"美国政府已宣布的关税上调幅度远超预 期水平，其给美国经济带来的影响，包括推高通胀 ...

Group 1: U.S. Treasury Market - Recent volatility in the U.S. Treasury market reflects a declining trust in dollar assets, potentially increasing pricing pressure on global sovereign debt markets and driving funds towards alternatives like gold and Chinese or European bonds [1] - In the medium to long term, China's A-shares and RMB assets may become more attractive due to policy support and domestic economic resilience [1] Group 2: Lithium Battery Anode Materials - CATL's recent product launches, including the second-generation Shenxing and sodium-ion batteries, are expected to open new opportunities for anode materials, with the second-generation Shenxing battery achieving a peak charging rate of 12C [2] - The introduction of self-generating anode technology in the Xiaoyao dual-core battery may have limited impact on traditional graphite anode materials, but the overall anode materials and related supply chain are likely to benefit significantly [2] Group 3: Real Estate Policies - Real estate is being integrated into consumption-boosting policies, highlighting its importance in driving consumption through housing-related spending and the wealth effect on consumer confidence [3] - A nationwide policy is anticipated to be introduced in April-May, favoring developers with strong product offerings and those holding quality operational assets [3] Group 4: Photovoltaic Supply Chain - The U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" are impacting the photovoltaic supply chain, but Chinese manufacturers have adapted by utilizing Southeast Asia for indirect exports to the U.S. [5] - Despite increased production costs due to tariffs, Chinese photovoltaic firms may still maintain a relative advantage over U.S. manufacturers, with a focus on diversifying markets and enhancing technology and branding [5] Group 5: Fixed Income Market - Recent reductions in bank deposit rates are aimed at managing interest margin pressures and may lead to a broader decline in interest rates, including government bond yields [6] - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" could intensify as banks adjust their strategies [6] Group 6: Fiscal Data - March fiscal revenue showed a marginal improvement, with tax revenue still in negative growth, while fiscal spending has accelerated, particularly in social security and employment [8] - The issuance of special bonds is expected to accelerate in the second quarter as local self-assessment mechanisms mature [9] Group 7: Solid-State Battery Materials - The upcoming Shanghai Auto Show is expected to catalyze the solid-state battery industry, with policy support likely to strengthen [10] - High-end applications for solid-state batteries are projected to grow significantly by 2025, driving the materials sector into a high-growth phase [10] Group 8: Coal Power Upgrades - The increasing influence of renewable energy is raising demands on coal power, prompting upgrades that support the construction of a new power system [11] - The new coal power upgrade action plan will set higher standards for existing and new units, encouraging regional energy departments to develop tailored action plans [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's patience in the face of economic uncertainty in the U.S. may be the correct approach, as recent comments from Chairman Powell indicate a cautious stance due to inflation and economic challenges posed by tariffs [1] Group 1: Economic Uncertainty - High inflation and declining economic growth potential are significant concerns, with the Fed facing a dilemma due to Trump's tariff policies [1][2] - The expectation is that the Fed may not lower interest rates significantly this year, with a potential trigger for action being a rise in unemployment above 4.5% [2] Group 2: Economic Growth Potential - The U.S. economy is experiencing a structural decline in growth potential, exacerbated by rising import prices and a decrease in labor supply due to higher deportation rates [4] - Despite a projected slowdown in GDP growth, the unemployment rate remains relatively stable at 4.2%, indicating that economic weakness may not lead to sufficient labor market softness to warrant monetary policy support [4] Group 3: Inflation Concerns - The market is beginning to accept that inflation may exceed the Fed's 2% target for a fifth consecutive year, posing a threat to the Fed's credibility [5] - Short-term inflation expectations have risen significantly, although this is not corroborated by other inflation indicators [5] Group 4: Political Pressures - Trump's attacks on the Fed's independence may influence its decision-making, as the Fed aims to maintain its credibility and avoid perceptions of political pressure [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The EC of the container shipping European line fluctuated, with the 06 contract closing at 1697 points, a decline of 5.3%. The SCFIS European line announced after the market was 1402.35 points, a slight drop of 20.07 points from the previous period, corresponding to the departure settlement price from April 7 - 13, and was included in the 04 contract delivery settlement price. The EC is currently more affected by the macro - impact of Trump's tariff policy, especially the potential decline in global trade demand due to tariff barriers. The impact on spot freight rates is relatively limited. Some shipping companies continued to slightly reduce the quotes for the second half of April. Compared with the price increases in March and April, the price increase in May is slower due to macro - disturbances and is still unclear. The European line is traditionally about to enter the seasonal peak season in the second quarter, but under the influence of the uncertainty of high tariffs, the decline in US - bound cargo exports may spill over to the European line. Since the festival stocking season for the European line has not started yet, there is uncertainty about whether the traditional peak season will arrive. It is expected that the expected peak season will be postponed and its actual height will be limited. There may be an emotional repair in the short term. Attention should be paid to the shipping companies' regulation of shipping capacity and the progress of price increases in May [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price | Contract | Latest Transaction Price (Points) | Latest Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume | Open Interest (One - Side) | Long Positions (Top 20 Members) | Short Positions (Top 20 Members) | Net Long Positions (Top 20 Members) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2504 | 1480 | - 0.83 | 126 | 1297 | 967 | 1120 | - 153 | | EC2506 | 1697 | - 5.30 | 54583 | 33133 | 18348 | 19071 | - 723 | | EC2508 | 1708 | - 1.80 | 21084 | 29822 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | EC2510 | 1295.1 | - 0.43 | 8301 | 15747 | - | - | - | | EC2512 | 1480.2 | - 0.31 | 1722 | 3777 | - | - | - | | EC2602 | 1310.5 | - 0.40 | 1335 | 2676 | - | - | - | | Total | - | - | 87151 | 86452 | 19315 | 20191 | - 876 | [1] Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes | Spot Index | Indicator | Latest Period | Month - on - Month Increase/Decrease | Previous Period | Month - on - Month Increase/Decrease | Two Periods Ago | Month - on - Month Increase/Decrease | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (Weekly) | SCFIS - Points | 1402.35 | - 1.4% | 1422.42 | - 3.5% | 1473.56 | - 2.2% | | | SCFI - $/TEU | 1356 | 1.5% | 1336 | 1.4% | 1318 | 0.9% | | Spot Freight Rates | TCI(20GP) $/TEU | 1644 | 0.7% | 1632 | 0.0% | 1632 | 0.0% | | (Daily) | TCI(40GP) $/FEU | 2705 | 0.9% | 2681 | 0.0% | 2681 | 0.0% | | Basis Spread (Points) | | | | | | | | | Previous Trading Day Basis Spread | - 387.88 | - 294.65 | | Two Trading Days Ago Basis Spread | | | Month - on - Month Change | 93.23 | [1] Spot Market Data - Shipping Capacity | | Asia - Europe Route Capacity Deployment (TEU) | Month - on - Month Increase (TEU) | Idle Capacity Ratio (%) | Global | 17000TEU+ Container Ships | 12000 - 16999TEU Container Ships | 8000 - 11999TEU Container Ships | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Capacity | 486844 | - 2568 | 2.0 | - | 1.3 | 0.2 | 2.4 | | Average Speed (Knots) | Container Ships | 14.01 | 17000TEU+ Container Ships | 15.65 | 12000 - 16999TEU Container Ships | 15.41 | - | | In - Port Capacity (10,000 TEU) | Rotterdam | 24.59 | Hamburg Port | 9.87 | Singapore | 34.75 | - | | Bypass Situation | Number of Ships Passing Through the Gulf of Aden (Vessels) | 7 | North - bound Traffic Volume in the Suez Canal (Vessels) | 4 | South - bound Traffic Volume in the Suez Canal (Vessels) | 3 | - | | Time - Charter Rates (6 - 12 months) | 9000TEU ($/Day) | 106000 | 6500TEU ($/Day) | 73500 | 2500TEU ($/Day) | 33750 | - | [4]

本文字数：2004，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 高雅 2025.04. 14 受特朗普关税政策波动性影响，部分全球最大规模的养老金基金、家族办公室及超高净值人士正暂停 对美国市场的投资，并将财富转移至伦敦或苏黎世"避难"。 2025年以来，美国股市表现疲软。标普500指数下跌8.61%，纳斯达克指数重挫13.26%，道琼斯工业 指数回落5.14%。相比之下，德国DAX指数上涨1.75%，香港恒生指数增长1.91%，英国富时100指 数虽下跌3.58%，但跌幅小于美股。 全球经济分析公司BCA Research全球首席策略师贝莱津（Peter Berezin）对第一财经记者表示，美 国经济和股市在全球贸易战冲击下面临显著风险。他认为，劳动力市场韧性减弱、消费者储蓄枯竭、 收入增长放缓及借贷能力受限等因素，可能导致美国在2025年陷入衰退。当前美股尚未充分反映衰 退风险，未来或有进一步下行空间。 财富流向伦敦与苏黎世 BCA Research在4月14日的一份简报说明中称，通常，全球增长恐慌会推高美元并压低收益率。"但 上周的情形恰恰相反。其他发达市场货币从中受益，包括欧元、日元、英镑和加元。收益率差 ...

冲击世界的特朗普关税（REUTERS） 美国总统特朗普的关税政策正在冲击整个世界。日本经济新闻对加强"交易"态势、前景难以预测 的特朗普关税政策的现状进行了梳理。从目前的情况来看，特朗普政府对各国征收的关税主要分为 三种类型，各国的应对策略也大致分为三类…… 美国总统特朗普的关税政策正在冲击整个世界。特朗普政府在4月9日全面启动了针对本国与 贸易伙伴的贸易逆差等问题而提高税率的"对等关税"，但就在第二天的10日，又将中国以外的 税率一律下调至10%，将高税率的征税推迟了90天。日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）对 加强"交易"态势、前景难以预测的特朗普关税政策的现状进行了梳理。 除对等关税外，"各领域关税"也不容忽视 从目前的情况来看，特朗普第二届政府对各国征收的关税主要分为三种类型，这点已经变得 逐渐清晰。 第一是针对全世界的"对等关税"。第二是已针对汽车、钢铁和铝启动的"各领域关税"。最后是 截至目前针对邻国加拿大、墨西哥和中国征收的"特定国家关税"。 不管哪个种类的关税均采取了在现有关税上叠加的做法。虽然合计的税率将适用于进口到美 国的商品，但各个法律依据和目的有所不同。 因对世界各国征收而影响巨大的对 ...

2025.04. 11 作者 | 第一财经 下午市场零距离 第一财经《市场零距离》节目与中泰证券首席策略分析师徐驰就A股市场现状、板块投资机遇及出口 企业挑战进行了深入讨论。 在当下复杂的全球经济形势下，特朗普关税政策引发的市场动荡备受瞩目，A股市场的走向成为各方 关注焦点。为此，第一财经《市场零距离》节目就相关市场问题，与中泰证券首席策略分析师徐驰在 4月7日当天展开了深度对话，全面剖析A股市场现状、板块投资机遇以及出口企业面临的挑战与前 景。 徐驰指出，当前市场波动显著，从全球范围来看，A股市场展现出了一定韧性。尽管今日盘面呈现大 幅低开且整体走势较弱的态势，但对比全球主要市场，A股部分指数表现相对突出。例如，近期纳斯 本文字数：1484，阅读时长大约3分钟 达克连续三天大幅下跌，累计跌幅近15%，若从今年年初至今计算，在特朗普关税政策实施前就已有 近20%的跌幅，整体跌幅超30%。而A股指数的下跌幅度在全球市场中处于相对较好的水平。 综合来看，受全球经济形势的影响，A股市场目前处于调整阶段。特朗普关税政策不仅引发了全球流 动性风险，导致包括黄金在内的避险资产价格下跌，还对过去40年的全球贸易秩序造成冲击 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In March, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] - The food price decline year-on-year shrank by 1.9 percentage points to -1.4%, reducing its downward impact on CPI by 0.35 percentage points[5] - Non-food prices increased by 0.2% year-on-year, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, contributing an additional 0.24 percentage points to CPI[6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.5% year-on-year in March, with the decline expanding by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[2] - The decline in production materials prices increased by 0.2 percentage points to -0.4%, with significant drops in the mining and raw materials sectors[7] - The PPI is expected to decrease by approximately 2.8% in April, continuing a trend of negative growth throughout the year[8] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The low inflation environment is expected to persist in the short term, with CPI likely to continue negative growth in the second and third quarters[9] - Domestic macroeconomic policies are anticipated to focus on stimulating consumption, stabilizing the real estate market, and supporting private enterprises[9] - The impact of external factors, such as global economic slowdown and trade pressures, is expected to further challenge domestic inflation recovery[9]