Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. non-farm payroll report, originally scheduled for release on December 29, has been postponed to January 9, 2026, due to delays caused by the government shutdown in October and November [1][5] - The absence of the non-farm payroll report this week is expected to result in lower volatility for the U.S. dollar and precious metals compared to traditional non-farm weeks [1][5] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes will be released on Wednesday, January 3, which is a significant event for market participants as it may influence the direction of the U.S. dollar [5][11] Group 2 - Major global exchanges will be closed on January 1, 2026, for New Year's Day, including the New York Stock Exchange and the CME, which will halt trading in various futures contracts [3][4][8] - On December 31, 2025, many exchanges will also have early closures or suspend trading, but the New York Stock Exchange will operate normally, indicating that the U.S. stock market will not be affected by the New Year's Eve [9]

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资， 责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可， 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 研究员： 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 免责声明 | | | 贵金属期货日报 | | | | 2025/12/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 环比 数据指标 最新 | | | | 环比 | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 1007.180 | -9.1↓ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | | | 18201 | -107.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) 166,022.00 | -14690.00↓ 主力合约持 ...

摘要北京时间周一(12月29日)欧洲时段，美元指数高位回落，交投于99.141附近，金价目前交投于 4461.89美元/盎司，跌幅1.55%，最高触及4548.92美元/盎司，最低触及4445.69美元/盎司。警惕假期期 间流动性清淡引发的瞬间"跳水"效应。 黄金已连续上行逾一年，K线呈阶梯式逐级抬升，新高迭创。日线级别均线维持多头排列，中期上升趋 势未改，MACD位于零轴上方但红柱收窄，显示上行动能有所减弱。 北京时间周一(12月29日)欧洲时段，美元指数高位回落，交投于99.141附近，金价目前交投于4461.89美 元/盎司，跌幅1.55%，最高触及4548.92美元/盎司，最低触及4445.69美元/盎司。警惕假期期间流动性清 淡引发的瞬间"跳水"效应。 今日黄金价格最新查询(2025年12月29日) | 名称 | 最新价 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 现货黄金 | 4462.53 | 美元/盎司 | | 黄金t+d | 1005.00 | 元/克 | | 纸黄金 | 1005.25 | 元/克 | | 沪金主力 | 1007.18 | 元/克 | 【基本面解析】 近期黄金 ...

摘要今日周一(12月29日)亚盘时段，黄金T+D最新报价1012.50元/克，较昨日上涨1.92元/克，涨幅 0.19%，日内价格最高达1017.00元/克，最低下探至1003.21元/克，昨日收盘价1010.58元/克，今日开盘 价1011.08元/克。 货币政策虽非刻意加剧分化，却有深远影响：2020年为救疫情经济大幅降息至近零，2022年3月起激进 加息抑通胀，当时约四分之一房主锁定超低利率，此后极少放弃。但K型经济影响或更早——全国保险 经济学家克拉奇金称，2008年美联储应对金融危机注入流动性推高股房价值，加剧有产与无产差距，疫 情后曾缩小。 2020-2023年，最贫困群体工资增速超最富裕者(雇主抢有限劳动力)，但2025年逆转：9月底层四分之一 家庭工资12月移动中值3.7%，最高收入群体4.4%。克拉奇金指出，底层无房产、股票或信贷支撑，仅 依赖工资跑赢通胀。 今日周一(12月29日)亚盘时段，黄金t+d最新报价1012.50元/克，较昨日上涨1.92元/克，涨幅0.19%，日 内价格最高达1017.00元/克，最低下探至1003.21元/克，昨日收盘价1010.58元/克，今日开盘价1011 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the price of electrolytic copper may show an inverted "V" trend throughout the year. It may fluctuate strongly in the first half of the year, challenging new highs, and weakly in the second half. The volatility of copper prices is expected to converge to a limited extent, and call options remain highly suitable. The main influencing factors include the Fed's monetary policy, Sino - US relations, changes in copper concentrate TC, and energy storage demand [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Copper Market Review - In 2025, copper prices showed a generally strong and fluctuating trend. By December 10, the Shanghai copper main - continuous contract had risen by nearly 25% during the year. The copper futures market went through four stages: in the first stage (January - March), the first wave of price increase was driven by the tightening supply of copper concentrate and the market's expectation of rising US inflation. In the second stage (April - mid - September), after hitting bottom, the price rebounded and then consolidated for a long time, affected by trade wars, Fed rate - cut expectations, and other factors. In the third stage (late September - mid - November), the second wave of price increase occurred due to the supply shortage of copper concentrate and positive market news. In the fourth stage (mid - November - present), the price repeatedly broke through historical highs, driven by market concerns about the Fed's future policies [7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Environment Outlook 3.2.1 Fed Policy May Remain Loose - In 2025, the Fed's policy experienced multiple adjustments, including rate cuts and the end of the balance - sheet reduction plan. Looking ahead, according to the dot - plot after the December meeting, there is still one rate cut expected in 2026 and 2027. The market is concerned about whether the Fed will continue to expand its balance sheet and the independence of the Fed after Powell's term ends [11][12]. 3.2.2 Sino - US Game Will Continue - In 2025, Sino - US tariff disputes went through several rounds of escalation and mitigation. The US used tariff hikes as a bargaining chip. In the future, Sino - US tariff disputes are expected to continue, and the US may focus on issues such as fentanyl and rare - earth exports [13][15]. 3.3 Demand Side: Emerging Demands Show Obvious Increases and May Explode in 2026 3.3.1 Traditional Industries Have Limited Growth - **Real Estate Remains in a Downturn**: In 2025, despite a series of policies, real - estate investment, new construction, and completion data continued to decline. In 2026, although the government will continue to promote real - estate stability policies, the real - estate market is expected to continue to drag down copper demand in the short term [16][19]. - **White Goods Production and Sales First Strong Then Weak**: In 2025, with the support of the "trade - in" policy, white - goods production and sales were strong in the first half of the year but weakened later. In 2026, with the possible continuation of the policy and the replacement cycle, the year - on - year growth rate of production and sales of three major white goods is expected to be higher than in 2025. However, the year - on - year growth rate of exports of white goods has declined overall compared to last year, and its contribution to copper demand growth has weakened [23][24]. 3.3.2 Emerging Demands Will Gradually Become the Main Force of Copper Demand - **AI and Computing Power May Boost Future Power Grid Demand**: In 2025, power and grid infrastructure investment showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. In the future, AI and computing - power industries will become important demand drivers for power and grid infrastructure [29]. - **New - energy Vehicles Provide Stable Increases Despite Slower Growth**: In 2025, new - energy vehicle production and sales maintained a relatively high year - on - year growth rate, providing stable copper demand. In 2026, although the subsidy for new - energy vehicle purchase tax will be halved, the year - on - year growth rate of production and sales is still expected to remain at a relatively high level [32][34]. - **Photovoltaic Installation in China Has Stable Increases and Exports Are Impressive**: In 2025, due to policy changes, there was a "rush - to - install" phenomenon in the first five months, and the year - on - year growth rate of cumulative new installations and cumulative installations showed an inverted "V" trend. In 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of photovoltaic installation may be lower than in 2025 but will still be high. Photovoltaic cell exports are expected to maintain a high growth rate [35][37]. - **Energy Storage Demand May Explode**: In 2025, the new energy - storage installation volume in China is expected to increase by 24% year - on - year. In 2026, it is expected to reach 230GWh, with a year - on - year growth rate close to 70%. Globally, the new energy - storage installation volume in 2026 is expected to reach 480GWh, with a year - on - year growth rate of 60%, providing significant copper demand growth [44][47]. 3.4 Supply Side: Mine - end Shortage Persists, and Smelter Production Cuts May Expand 3.4.1 Frequent Overseas Mine Incidents Lead to Continuous Decline in Copper Concentrate TC - In 2025, overseas copper mines experienced many incidents, causing copper concentrate TC to decline continuously. CSPT called on domestic smelters to jointly cut production in the fourth quarter. In 2026, the global copper concentrate increment is expected to be 45 - 56 tons, mainly concentrated in the second half of the year. The shortage of copper concentrate will persist in the first half of 2026, and TC may remain at a very low level [49][62]. 3.4.2 Copper Mine Shortage Has Limited Impact on the Smelting End - In 2025, although copper concentrate was in short supply, the global and Chinese electrolytic copper production basically maintained the highest level in the same period of the past five years. In 2026, the shortage of copper concentrate may be difficult to ease in the first half of the year, and the domestic smelting industry may have a larger - scale joint production cut than in Q4 2025 [63]. 3.4.3 The Siphon Effect of US Copper Continues, and Spot Supplies of Shanghai and London Copper Are Tight - In 2025, due to factors such as tariffs, COMEX copper was at a significant premium, leading to a change in the global copper trade pattern. Copper flowed into the US, causing the inventory of COMEX copper to rise continuously, while the inventory of Shanghai and London copper decreased, resulting in a long - term tight spot supply and high prices [68][70]. 3.4.4 High Copper Prices Pressure Downstream Demand, and Social Inventory Remains at a High Level - In 2025, electrolytic copper social inventory increased to a high level in September, but it had little pressure on copper prices, which were mainly driven by macro factors and low copper concentrate TC [77]. 3.5 Future Outlook and Supply - Demand Balance Sheet 3.5.1 Global Copper Concentrate Supply - Demand Balance Remains Tight - In 2025, the global copper concentrate supply - demand balance was expected to be - 35 tons. In 2026, it is expected to be - 40 tons, with the supply gap widening compared to 2025. The shortage will persist in Q1 2026 and gradually ease in the later quarters [79][80]. 3.5.2 Electrolytic Copper Supply - Demand Balance - **Global**: In 2025, the global electrolytic copper supply - demand balance was in a tight state at - 5 tons. In 2026, it is expected to be - 21 tons, with the gap widening. - **China**: In 2025, the supply - demand balance of Chinese electrolytic copper was - 20.04 tons, with the gap nearly doubling compared to 2024. In 2026, it may decline slightly to - 30 tons, with the gap widening slightly compared to 2025 [81][83].

【本周重点关注】 2025 年 12 月 29 日 本周热点前瞻 2025-12-29 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 声明 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬 请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成具体业务或 产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作出投资决定并自主 承担投资风险，不应凭借本报告进行具体操作。 点评：12月29日23:00，全美地产经纪商协会(NAR）将公布美国11月季调后成屋签约销售指数，预期美国11 月季调后成屋签约销售指数月率为1%，前值为1.9%。 美国截至12月19日当周EIA原油库存变动 12 月 31 日 03:00，美联储将公布美联储公布 12 月货币政策会议纪要。 12 月 31 日 09:30，国家统计局和中国物流采购联合会将公布中国 12 月官方制造业 PMI、非制造业 PMI 和综 合 PMI。 12 月 31 日 09:45，Markit 公司将公布中国 1 ...

北京时间12月29日，日韩股市开盘涨跌不一；现货白银创新高后直线跳水；据美媒近日报道，美国总统特朗普或将在1月第一周指定美联储新主席人选；本 周，美联储将公布12月货币政策会议纪要；巴菲特将于年底正式卸任伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司首席执行官一职。 【市场回顾】 北京时间12月29日，日韩股市开盘涨跌不一。日经225指数开盘跌0.12%，报50691.22点；韩国综合指数开盘涨0.41%，报4146.48点。 现货白银12月29日开盘快速拉升，盘中迅速升破83美元/盎司关口，继续刷新历史新高。随后，现货白银直线跳水，日内由涨转跌。截至北京时间8时30分， 现货白银报75.543美元/盎司，日内跌幅近5%，此前一度涨近6%；COMEX白银涨超4%，报80.64美元/盎司。其他贵金属方面，现货黄金失守4500美元/盎 司，COMEX黄金小幅下跌。 当地时间12月26日，美股三大股指小幅收跌。截至收盘，道琼斯指数跌0.04%，报48710.97点；标普500指数跌0.03%，报6929.94点；纳斯达克综合指数跌 0.09%，报23593.10点。上周，美股三大指数均累涨超1%，其中道指涨1.2%、标普500指数涨1.4% ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：期货日报 大家好，先来看下重要消息！ 特朗普称与普京进行了"富有成效"的通话 据央视新闻消息，美国总统特朗普28日在社交媒体上发文说，他当天与俄罗斯总统普京进行了"良好且 富有成效"的通话。 另据央视新闻消息，当地时间12月28日，俄罗斯总统助理乌沙科夫表示，普京与特朗普的通话是应美方 提议举行的，时长约1小时15分钟，具有友好、善意和务实的性质。 乌沙科夫称，特朗普表示有必要尽快结束俄乌冲突。普京和特朗普总体上持类似观点，认为临时停火只 会导致俄乌冲突拖延下去。 乌沙科夫说，俄美正组建两个工作组，将分别负责安全问题和经济事务。若想彻底结束军事冲突，乌方 应就顿巴斯问题作出政治决定。 乌沙科夫说，特朗普与普京通话时表示，他确信俄方希望通过政治和外交途径解决乌克兰危机，他将在 与乌克兰总统泽连斯基会晤时顾及俄方这一意愿。特朗普在通话中承认，俄乌冲突对他来说是"最棘手 的问题"。 乌沙科夫还表示，俄美双方领导人约定，在特朗普与泽连斯基会晤结束后将再次通话。 泽连斯基26日接受采访时说，他希望28日与特朗普会晤时就结束俄乌冲突的框架达成一致，其 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant upcoming events and economic indicators, including the release of manufacturing PMI data for China and the US, changes in trading regulations for silver and gold futures, and notable corporate developments such as the leadership transition at Berkshire Hathaway and the IPOs of several companies in Hong Kong [4][6][12][16][17]. Economic Indicators - China's official manufacturing PMI for December is expected to be released on December 31, with a previous reading of 49.2 indicating contraction. Analysts anticipate a slight recovery due to policy support, focusing on new order indices and performance across different enterprise sizes [6]. - The US will release the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for December on January 2, along with data on initial jobless claims for the week ending December 27 [7]. Corporate Events - Warren Buffett officially steps down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, with Greg Abel taking over the role starting January 1, 2026 [12]. - Wall Street anticipates the announcement of a new Federal Reserve chair by President Trump in the first week of January [10]. - Wall Street and various global markets will observe a holiday break from January 1 to January 4, 2026 [13][14]. Price Adjustments in Industries - A price increase trend is noted in the paper and chemical industries, with companies like Jilin Chemical Fiber and Hunan Youneng announcing significant price hikes for their products starting January 1, 2026 [25][26][27][28][29][30][31]. Regulatory Changes - The National Investment Silver LOF has tightened its subscription limits, reducing the A-class investment cap back to 100 yuan and suspending C-class subscriptions effective December 29 [18][19]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has adjusted the price fluctuation limits for gold and silver futures to 15% and modified margin requirements effective December 30 [20]. Legislative Developments - The "Fujian Province Promotion of Cross-Strait Standard Commonality Regulations" will take effect on January 1, 2026, marking a significant legislative move aimed at enhancing standards between the two regions [32].

2025年的全球金融市场，黄金无疑是耀眼的"明星"资产。 国际金价从年初不足2700美元/盎司，到年末冲破4500美元/盎司关口，全年累计涨幅超70%，年内更刷 新历史高点50余次。国内市场同步升温，部分品牌足金饰品价格也顺势突破1400元/克，"黄金狂潮"席 卷资本市场。 金价剧烈起伏之间，有人坚定持仓，账面财富水涨船高；也有人追高入场被套，焦虑难眠。站在2025年 年末回望，这场黄金盛宴的悲与喜，不只是投资者的个人际遇，更折射出宏观经济、地缘政治与市场情 绪交织下的资产逻辑变迁。 视线投向即将到来的2026年，多重变量交织下，黄金市场的机遇与挑战仍在持续酝酿。面对充满变数的 市场，投资者究竟该如何布局？ 八年持金财富增值 "现在回头看，最正确的决定就是买了黄金，并且拿住了。"看到如今屡创新高的金价，张阿姨难掩兴 奋。 2017年，张阿姨手头正好有一笔闲钱，在银行客户经理的建议下，她以每克约300元的价格购入了50克 投资金条。当年投资黄金远未形成风潮，张阿姨说，她下单主要是出于对客户经理专业建议的信任，以 及"黄金长远看总是值钱的"朴素认知。 张阿姨告诉记者："银行客户经理当时提醒过投资风险，但我想着这钱 ...