Group 1 - The latest U.S. non-farm payroll data for January shows an increase of 130,000 jobs, significantly exceeding market expectations, which reduces the Federal Reserve's inclination towards easing monetary policy [1] - The unemployment rate in January dropped to 4.3%, while average hourly wages increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year [1] - The labor force participation rate rose from 62.4% to 62.5%, indicating a positive trend in the labor market [1] Group 2 - Despite the strong job growth in January, there are signs that the labor market may be weakening, with reports indicating a slowdown in hiring activities expected in 2025 due to increased layoffs and reduced job vacancies [2] - The ratio of unemployed individuals to job vacancies decreased to 0.87 in December, down from 0.89 in November, suggesting a tightening labor market [2] - Analysts note that while the January non-farm data shows job increases, the labor market is still struggling, and there are concerns about a potential rise in unemployment as hiring slows down [2]

格隆汇2月11日｜外媒评非农报告指出，美国1月非农就业增长加快，新增13万个就业岗位大超预期，失 业率则降至4.3%，这是劳动力市场趋稳的信号，可能使美联储在政策制定者监测通胀之际，有空间在 一段时间内维持利率不变。就业增长优于预期的部分原因在于，零售商和快递公司等季节性敏感行业去 年雇用的假日工人少于往常。1月通常是假日相关裁员最集中的月份。鉴于季节性招聘低迷，裁员规模 可能也相应缩小，从而提振了就业增长。尽管1月非农就业增加，但劳动力市场依然不温不火，即使在 经济增长强劲的情况下也表现挣扎。对就业和高通胀的焦虑已削弱了美国民众对特朗普经济施政的满意 度。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

【导读】美联储戴利表示：利率将维持不变，但今年仍可能降息。 大家周末好，简单看一则关于美联储的消息。 旧金山联邦储备银行行长玛丽·戴利表示，由于通胀风险上升，美联储可能需要比预期更长时间维持利 率不变，但今年仍可能降息。 戴利在加州大学伯克利分校的一次活动中表示："与一年前相比，通胀的风险更高了，因此我们可能需 要比原先设想的更长时间维持紧缩政策。但这并不意味着要永远紧缩，因为最终通胀正在回落。" 戴利表示，她仍然认可美联储3月《经济预测摘要》（SEP）中的中位预期，即今年将降息两次、每次 25个基点。 她指出，如果通胀最终确实下降，"我们确实需要逐步降低利率，就像我们在SEP中所说的那样，以确 保不会对经济造成过度紧缩"。 （原标题：美联储最新发声！利率将维持不变 但今年仍可能降息） 大多数经济学家预计，这些关税在短期内至少会抑制经济增长并推高通胀。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔 以及多位美联储官员本周表示，央行的重点是确保由关税引发的物价上涨不会演变成更为持久的通胀上 升。 戴利对此的态度则显得相对乐观一些。 她表示："我们目前的经济状况稳健，当然，货币政策仍然保持在紧缩状态，以持续对通胀施加下行压 力。" 她 ...

若数据表现强劲，可能强化对美联储维持相对紧缩政策的预期，从而支撑美元；反之，若数据不及预 期，则可能巩固对政策转向的猜测，令美元承压。在数据公布前，这种不确定性令美元指数维持在一周 多以来的低位附近徘徊。 全球市场风险情绪的改善，也在一定程度上降低了美元的避险需求，这对新西兰元等与经济增长关联度 较高的货币构成利好。 这一因素部分抵消了中国近期通胀数据带来的影响。数据显示中国消费者价格涨幅有所放缓，生产者价 格则延续收缩态势，反映出内需仍有待加强，部分领域面临价格下行压力。 新西兰元兑美元汇率在近期交易中呈现反弹走势。周三亚洲时段，汇率升至近两周高位，现货价格交投 于0.6065附近。 当前美元走势偏弱，为新西兰元提供了支撑，但市场参与者的注意力普遍集中于即将公布的美国非农就 业数据，该数据可能为短期汇率方向提供关键指引。 美国月度就业数据受到广泛关注，因其直接影响市场对美联储货币政策路径的预期。目前市场对利率政 策的预期已有所调整，并部分反映在资产价格中。 从新西兰国内因素看，最新公布的劳动力市场数据显示失业率有所上升。这一变化可能使市场对新西兰 储备银行进一步加息的预期减弱，从而在一定程度上限制新西兰元的 ...

周三亚洲早盘，美元兑日元延续昨日跌势，跌破154.00整数关口，最低触及153.32附近，目前汇率报153.42，较前一交易日下 跌0.93，跌幅0.6218%。截至发稿，汇价在154.03附近弱势震荡，多空双方观望等待晚间美国1月非农就业报告指引。 非农数据不仅反映美国就业市场状况，更是判断美联储未来货币政策的关键。数据疲软将强化降息预期，利空美元、利多日 元，美元兑日元可能进一步下行测试153.00下方支撑；数据强劲则缓解美国经济担忧，为美元提供短期支撑，推动汇价反弹缓 解下跌态势。 昨日纽约尾盘，美元兑日元大跌1.01%，收报154.30，单日跌幅显著。此轮下跌核心是美国经济数据不及预期：美国12月零售 销售月率录得0%增长，远低于预期0.4%，较前月0.6%的增长明显回落，且同比增长2.4%低于当月消费者价格指数2.7%的同比 涨幅，反映实际消费萎缩。这一表现加剧市场对美国经济复苏乏力的担忧，打击美元多头信心，推动美元兑日元下行。 日元走势获得多重支撑，压制美元兑日元汇率。日本执政联盟在近期大选中获胜，市场关注其后续财政及汇率举措，日本财务 省官员口头干预言论也对日元形成支撑。市场对美联储降息预期升温 ...

尽管加元基本面支撑增强，但上方空间同样面临压制。美元指数整体维持弱势震荡，美联储降息预期虽 有所升温，但官员表态出现明显分化。美联储副主席力挺当前利率水平，暗示暂不降息，而旧金山联储 主席则释放鸽派信号，这种"内讧"式的表态加剧了市场的不确定性。 2月11日，亚洲交易时段，美元兑加元汇率维持窄幅震荡，汇价稳定在1.3550附近，多空双方在这一关 键心理关口展开激烈博弈。尽管市场对美加两国贸易摩擦的担忧情绪一度升温，但并未对汇率水平造成 实质性撼动，投资者焦点已全面转向即将公布的美国非农就业数据，寻求打破当前僵局的明确信号。 近期，围绕底特律-温莎跨境大桥项目的美加贸易争端成为市场关注的焦点。加拿大总理公开表示将妥 善处理与特朗普政府的分歧，有效缓解了市场对两国贸易关系恶化的担忧。投资者普遍认为，此次争端 不会动摇《美墨加协定》(USMCA)的根基，避险情绪的快速消退使得加元得以在1.3550水平企稳。 当前，支撑加元走势的核心逻辑回归到"油价联动"与"货币政策分化"的基本面上。作为主要石油出口 国，加拿大经济与国际油价高度绑定。尽管周二原油价格小幅回调0.8%，但市场对大宗商品投资周期 的预期依然强劲，矿产开 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing tension between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has intensified, raising concerns about the future relationship between the two and the implications for monetary policy [1][9]. Group 1: Tensions and Criticism - Since taking office in 2017, Trump has consistently criticized Powell, expressing a desire for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in a timely manner to support market performance [3][5]. - Trump has publicly stated that he believes he made a significant mistake in choosing Powell as the Fed chair, indicating a preference for a new chair who aligns with his economic views [1][3]. Group 2: Potential Successors - Trump has identified Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh as potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve chair, with Hassett being the current frontrunner [5][11]. - The market has reacted strongly to the possibility of Hassett's appointment, with analysts suggesting that it would lead to a more accommodative monetary policy [11]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The capital markets have shown heightened sensitivity to Trump's comments regarding the Federal Reserve, particularly concerning the likelihood of further interest rate cuts [9][11]. - Following discussions about Hassett's potential nomination, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury briefly fell below 4%, reflecting market apprehension about the implications of Trump's influence on the Fed [11]. Group 4: Independence of the Federal Reserve - Despite Trump's attempts to exert pressure, Powell has maintained the independence of the Federal Reserve, which has become a focal point of concern for the markets [7][9]. - The ongoing conflict between the White House and the Federal Reserve is seen as a significant factor that could impact U.S. monetary policy and, by extension, the global economy [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: The US plans to promote the commercial reserve of critical mineral resources, and China is expected to strengthen copper reserves. The US economic data is relatively volatile, with strong manufacturing sentiment providing support. The copper price is expected to fluctuate, with the Shanghai copper main contract reference range of 101,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton and the LME copper 3M reference range of 13,000 - 13,300 US dollars/ton [5]. - Aluminum: Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate, with weak demand in the off - season; LME aluminum inventories remain relatively low, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, providing strong support for the aluminum price. Before the holiday, the aluminum price is expected to be range - bound, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract reference range of 23,300 - 23,800 yuan/ton and the LME aluminum 3M reference range of 3,080 - 3,130 US dollars/ton [8]. - Lead: The visible lead ore inventory has declined slightly but is still higher than the same period in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fee remains low. The scrap battery inventory continues to rise. Near the Spring Festival, the smelter's operating rate declines seasonally. Whether the lead price can stabilize depends on the restocking willingness of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival [10]. - Zinc: The visible zinc ore inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized. Domestic zinc ingot social inventories have started to accumulate, and the downstream industry is performing weakly. However, short - term funds are greatly affected by macro - sentiment. Strong US PMI may drive the zinc price to rise [12]. - Tin: Short - term precious metal prices show signs of stabilizing after a second decline, and tin prices may rebound. In the short term, due to the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventories, there is pressure on a significant increase. The tin price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see [14]. - Nickel: Precious metal and risk asset prices have stabilized after a second decline, with a short - term rebound demand. However, nickel still faces fundamental pressure, and the short - term nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely. The approved nickel ore production quota is close to market expectations and is expected to have limited impact on the nickel price [16]. - Lithium Carbonate: Before the holiday, funds are in a wait - and - see mood. The future lithium demand is expected to be strong. If the resumption of production of large mines in Jiangxi fails, the supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate after the Spring Festival will still be tight. Currently, there is a lack of new drivers, and the lithium price is likely to fluctuate within a range [19]. - Alumina: There is a strike in the bauxite mine in Guinea, and the subsequent impact needs to be observed. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [22]. - Stainless Steel: From the supply side, the raw material supply has recovered, but the agents' shipment rhythm has slowed down under the steel mill's price - limit policy. From the demand side, affected by the pre - Spring Festival off - season, the market's purchasing willingness is not strong. The market generally believes that the subsequent supply will gradually tighten, and it is recommended to maintain the strategy of buying low, with the main contract reference range of 13,500 - 13,900 yuan/ton [24]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has risen. Despite general demand, the short - term price is still supported under the background of continuous supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply [27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: The US retail sales data was weaker than expected. Overnight, the US stock market rose and then fell, and the copper price fluctuated and adjusted. The LME copper 3M closed down 0.64% to 13,100 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 101,730 yuan/ton. LME copper inventories increased by 4,800 tons to 189,100 tons. Domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange daily warehouse receipts increased by 0.9 to 166,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai was at a premium of 5 yuan/ton to the futures, and the spot in Guangdong was at a discount of 105 yuan/ton to the futures. The spot import of Shanghai copper had a loss of about 700 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The US plans to promote the commercial reserve of critical mineral resources, and China is expected to strengthen copper reserves. The US economic data is relatively volatile, with strong manufacturing sentiment providing support. The copper price is expected to fluctuate, with the Shanghai copper main contract reference range of 101,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton and the LME copper 3M reference range of 13,000 - 13,300 US dollars/ton [5]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: As the long holiday approaches, market volatility has decreased. The increasing uncertainty of the Mozambique aluminum plant's production cut has led to an adjustment in the aluminum price. The LME aluminum closed down 0.8% to 3,105 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,545 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased by 0.4 to 663,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.2 to 167,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories in three regions increased, and aluminum rod inventories rose. The LME aluminum ingot inventories decreased by 0.2 to 487,000 tons [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate, with weak demand in the off - season; LME aluminum inventories remain relatively low, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, providing strong support for the aluminum price. Before the holiday, the aluminum price is expected to be range - bound, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract reference range of 23,300 - 23,800 yuan/ton and the LME aluminum 3M reference range of 3,080 - 3,130 US dollars/ton [8]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.52% to 16,688 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 126,000 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME lead 3S rose 11.5 to 1,970 US dollars/ton, with a total position of 176,300 lots. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,525 yuan/ton, and the recycled refined lead average price was 16,500 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 45,500 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 232,800 tons [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible lead ore inventory has declined slightly but is still higher than the same period in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fee remains low. The scrap battery inventory continues to rise. Near the Spring Festival, the smelter's operating rate declines seasonally. Whether the lead price can stabilize depends on the restocking willingness of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival [10]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.30% to 24,494 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 193,000 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME zinc 3S rose 5 to 3,366.5 US dollars/ton, with a total position of 229,400 lots. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 24,460 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc ingot futures inventory was 34,200 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 106,900 tons [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible zinc ore inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized. Domestic zinc ingot social inventories have started to accumulate, and the downstream industry is performing weakly. However, short - term funds are greatly affected by macro - sentiment. Strong US PMI may drive the zinc price to rise [12]. Tin - **Market Information**: On February 10, the tin price fluctuated narrowly. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 382,000 yuan/ton, down 0.57% from the previous day. On the supply side, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained high and stable last week, while the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. On the demand side, although the price decline has released some rigid procurement demand and spot transactions have slightly improved, the overall price is still at a high level, and the downstream's pre - holiday restocking willingness is not obvious [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term precious metal prices show signs of stabilizing after a second decline, and tin prices may rebound. In the short term, due to the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventories, there is pressure on a significant increase. The tin price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract reference range is 350,000 - 410,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin reference range is 46,000 - 50,000 US dollars/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On February 10, the nickel price fell slightly. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 133,350 yuan/ton, down 0.87% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand remained stable. The nickel ore price remained stable, and the nickel iron price fluctuated upward [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Precious metal and risk asset prices have stabilized after a second decline, with a short - term rebound demand. However, nickel still faces fundamental pressure, and the short - term nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely. The approved nickel ore production quota is close to market expectations and is expected to have limited impact on the nickel price. The Shanghai nickel price reference range is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 3M contract reference range is 16,000 - 18,000 US dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 136,408 yuan in the evening session, up 0.06% from the previous trading day. The LC2605 contract closed at 137,340 yuan, up 0.25% from the previous closing price [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Before the holiday, funds are in a wait - and - see mood. The future lithium demand is expected to be strong. If the resumption of production of large mines in Jiangxi fails, the supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate after the Spring Festival will still be tight. Currently, there is a lack of new drivers, and the lithium price is likely to fluctuate within a range. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 129,000 - 147,000 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On February 10, 2026, as of 15:00, the alumina index fell 1.11% to 2,837 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 468,200 lots, a decrease of 14,600 lots from the previous trading day. The Shandong spot price remained at 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 280 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price remained at 304 US dollars/ton, and the import loss was reported at - 69 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts on Tuesday were reported at 251,000 tons, an increase of 84,000 tons from the previous trading day [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is a strike in the bauxite mine in Guinea, and the subsequent impact needs to be observed. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The future price trend depends on whether the Guinea mine disturbance can be materialized and whether the high domestic supply pressure can be effectively alleviated. The domestic main contract AO2605 reference range is 2,750 - 3,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to domestic supply contraction policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Tuesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 13,740 yuan/ton, up 0.04% (+5) on the day, with a unilateral position of 211,200 lots, a decrease of 6,582 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the prices of cold - rolled coils in Foshan and Wuxi remained unchanged. The raw material prices also remained stable. The futures inventory was 47,800 tons, an increase of 4,221 from the previous day. As of February 6, social inventories increased to 914,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.07%, and the 300 - series inventory was 632,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.49% [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: From the supply side, the raw material supply has recovered, but the agents' shipment rhythm has slowed down under the steel mill's price - limit policy. From the demand side, affected by the pre - Spring Festival off - season, the market's purchasing willingness is not strong. The market generally believes that the subsequent supply will gradually tighten, and it is recommended to maintain the strategy of buying low, with the main contract reference range of 13,500 - 13,900 yuan/ton [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the cast aluminum alloy price fluctuated. The main AD2604 contract closed down 0.2% to 22,120 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position increased to 25,000 lots, and the trading volume was 8,700 lots. The warehouse receipts decreased by 0.12 to 67,300 tons. The domestic three - region aluminum alloy inventory decreased by 0.01 to 40,900 tons [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has risen. Despite general demand, the short - term price is still supported under the background of continuous supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply [27].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Tech Index has fallen below the 5400-point mark, indicating a significant pullback after previous gains in sectors like internet platforms and semiconductors[1] - The market is experiencing a "cold spring" with reduced trading volumes and profit-taking behavior observed across various sectors[1] Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 3.80% year-on-year[5] - Retail sales have shown a modest increase of 0.90% year-on-year[5] - Exports have risen by 6.60% year-on-year[5] - M2 money supply growth stands at 8.54%[5] External Factors - Recent U.S. economic data, including non-farm payrolls and service sector PPI, exceeded expectations, leading to a cooling of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve[1] - Domestic institutions are showing a strong demand for profit-taking to manage uncertainties post-holiday[1] Asset Allocation Trends - Southbound capital has shifted from high-growth tech stocks to high-dividend assets like telecommunications and banking[1] - The short-term support level for the market is projected to be between 5100-5250 points, coinciding with the 250-day moving average[1] Commodity and Currency Movements - The latest crude oil inventory is reported at 44,684 million tons, an increase of 44,935 million tons from the previous week[3] - The dollar long position has decreased to 16,610 contracts, down by 1,335 contracts[3]

【资讯导读】 ·联合国报告呼吁最不发达国家提高服务业生产率 ·美国2025年12月零售销售数据意外疲软 ·日本政府决定召集特别国会预计将进行首相指名选举 ·欧洲议会通过欧盟2040年温室气体减排90%目标 【市场资讯】 ·联合国贸易和发展会议10日发布报告指出，最不发达国家服务业虽在迅速扩张，但增长仍集中于维持 生计的低生产率活动，无法创造大规模繁荣。 ·美国达拉斯联储主席洛根表示，美联储的政策立场恰到好处；美联储的政策立场可能接近中性水平， 既不刺激也不抑制经济活动。未来几个月如果通胀回落、劳动力市场保持稳定，就不需要进一步降息。 克利夫兰联储主席哈马克表示，当前美联储目标利率"接近"中性水平；美联储的利率政策可能会"在相 当长一段时间内"保持不变。 ·美国2025年12月零售销售环比意外零增长，显著弱于预期值0.4%的增幅，前值为增长0.6%。核心零售 销售环比下降0.1%，预期为增长0.3%。主要依赖工资增长的低收入群体消费表现依然疲弱。 ·日本政府和执政党已决定将于18日召集特别国会。预计在特别国会召开期间，进行首相指名选举。鉴 于当前自民党在众议院掌握三分之二以上席位，高市早苗在首相指名选举中胜出几 ...