Market Overview - Financial markets are experiencing a broad rally, with major U.S. stock index futures opening higher [1] - WTI crude oil is reported at $59.8 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is at $63.65 per barrel [1] - Spot gold has surged to $4008.56 per ounce, and spot silver is at $48.558 per ounce, with increases of 0.2% and 0.48% respectively [1] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a significant surge, with Bitcoin surpassing the $104,000 mark and Ethereum rising over 5% [3] - In the last 24 hours, more than 120,000 individuals have faced liquidation in the crypto market [3] Government Shutdown Impact - The potential resolution of the U.S. government shutdown is being discussed, with Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicating progress towards an agreement [4] - The shutdown has lasted for 40 days, marking the longest federal government shutdown in history, leading to economic concerns and rising inflation [5] - High-profile economic estimates suggest that the shutdown has caused a 1.5% decline in U.S. GDP, with potential negative impacts on Q4 economic growth if it continues [5] - The upcoming release of the October CPI report is crucial for assessing inflation and consumer trends ahead of the Federal Reserve's December meeting [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing uncertainty in its decision-making due to the ongoing government shutdown, which has led to a lack of official labor market data and other key economic indicators [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is 66.5%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 33.5% [1] - By January, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 53%, with a 19.8% chance of no change and a 27.3% chance of a 50 basis point cut [1] - Federal Reserve officials, including key regional bank presidents, are scheduled to speak this week, which may provide insights into future monetary policy [1] Group 2: Government Shutdown Impact - The current government shutdown has lasted 40 days, marking the longest federal shutdown in U.S. history, and is causing economic concerns, including rising inflation [2] - The shutdown has resulted in the U.S. Labor Statistics Bureau failing to release the October non-farm payroll report, leading to a "blind flying" situation for the Federal Reserve regarding its December rate decision [1][2] - Treasury Secretary Besant warned that the slowdown in cargo transportation could lead to shortages in supply chains and during the holiday season due to the ongoing shutdown [2] Group 3: Legislative Developments - Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated that a potential agreement to end the government shutdown is gradually being reached, although it is not guaranteed [2] - The Senate held its first weekend meeting since the shutdown began to discuss funding bills, with ongoing debates over healthcare policy complicating negotiations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia indicates that the path for rate cuts may be limited due to high levels of capacity utilization and persistently high inflation expected to continue into the next year [1] Economic Indicators - Elevated levels of capacity utilization in the economy are noted, suggesting that the economy is operating near its potential [1] - The outlook includes inflation rates that are described as uncomfortably high, which is expected to last well into the next year [1]

美联储官员以及美财长贝森特本周将密集发声。 据CME"美联储观察"，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为66.5%，维持利率不变的概率为33.5%。美联 储到明年1月累计降息25个基点的概率为53%，维持利率不变的概率为19.8%，累计降息50个基点的概 率为27.3%。 美联储官员以及美财长贝森特本周将密集发声，包括2026年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克、 2027年FOMC票委、亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克、2026年FOMC票委、费城联储主席保尔森、2027年 FOMC票委、旧金山联储主席戴利。此外，美国财长贝森特将于11月12日发表讲话。 综合自：央视新闻 责编：叶舒筠 校对：苏焕文 版权声明 11月7日，因政府关门，美国劳工统计局未能如期公布10月非农报告，这是非农连续第二次"缺席"。 由于创纪录的政府"停摆"，导致劳动力市场以及其他许多重要指标缺乏官方数据，美联储12月降息决策 将再度陷入"盲飞"状态。 贝森特表示，在美国政府重新开门之前，不会与民主党进行谈判；认为价格将在未来几个月内下降。 美 国总统特朗普表示，如果美国政府开门，准备就医疗保健问题展开两党合作。 贝森特警告称，目前美国的货物运 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial pressure faced by middle and low-income Americans may threaten the resilience of the U.S. economy, despite the benefits that wealthier households gain from the stock market boom [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - John Williams, President of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, indicated that the upcoming interest rate decision in December will involve a "balanced consideration" [1] - The U.S. economy shows signs of resilience, but many Americans are struggling with housing and living costs [1] - There is evidence that middle and low-income families are facing affordability constraints [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - Williams dismissed calls for changes to the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate mechanism [1] - He acknowledged concerns about potential over-investment and stock market bubbles, despite optimism surrounding productivity improvements driven by artificial intelligence [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessenet, warned that the speed of cargo transportation in the U.S. is currently slowing down due to the ongoing government shutdown, which has lasted for 40 days, marking the longest federal government shutdown in history [1] - Bessenet indicated that the prolonged shutdown could lead to shortages in both supply chain segments and during the holiday season, exacerbating existing economic issues [1] - The economic situation is deteriorating, with rising inflation being a significant concern during the shutdown period [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that the threshold for a rate cut in December has been raised, requiring data to "prove" its necessity rather than "refute" it, following cautious remarks from Powell after the October rate cut [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The U.S. labor market is gradually cooling but has not shown signs of severe deterioration, providing a rationale for the Fed to pause rate cuts [2][3] - The absence of official economic data due to the government shutdown creates uncertainty for the Fed's decision-making, with key indicators like CPI, PPI, and retail sales missing [3] - The unemployment rate is seen as a decisive factor for Fed decisions, with a threshold of 4.3% or below indicating low likelihood for further cuts, while a rise to 4.5% could pave the way for at least one more cut [7][11] Group 2: Fed Officials' Sentiment - Recent communications from Fed officials lean slightly hawkish, supporting the view that rate cuts may be paused [8] - Officials have expressed concerns about inflation, with some doubting the necessity for further cuts in December [8][11] Group 3: Labor Market Analysis - Alternative data indicates a "low churn" state in the labor market, with increasing idle capacity but no collapse [6][10] - Job recruitment remains weak, with a decline in hiring rates, yet low layoff rates mitigate concerns about job losses [10] - Wage inflation shows signs of cooling, with slower growth in salaries for job switchers [10] Group 4: Economic Growth Outlook - The overall economic outlook remains constructive, with expectations for growth to trend towards normal levels, projected at 1.8% for 2025 [11]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America predicts that there will be no further interest rate cuts during Powell's tenure, contrasting sharply with market expectations for a December rate cut [1][9]. Group 1: Economic Context - The U.S. government shutdown has led to a lack of official economic data, creating uncertainty for the Federal Reserve's decision-making and market expectations [2]. - Key economic indicators such as the October CPI, PPI, and retail sales data will be absent, leaving the Fed without direct inflation and consumption guidance before the December meeting [2]. - Powell's metaphor of "driving in the fog requires slowing down" illustrates the current policy predicament, emphasizing the need for more data to justify any rate cuts [2]. Group 2: Labor Market Analysis - Alternative data sources are crucial for understanding the U.S. economy in the absence of official statistics, with Bank of America indicating a "low turnover" state in the labor market, suggesting gradual increases in market slack without a collapse [3]. - The unemployment rate is seen as a decisive factor for Fed decisions, with a threshold of 4.3% or below indicating low likelihood for further rate cuts [4]. - Current labor market conditions show weak hiring but manageable layoff rates, with initial unemployment claims remaining at non-worrisome levels [6]. Group 3: Fed Officials' Sentiment - Recent communications from Fed officials lean slightly hawkish, supporting the view that a pause in rate cuts is justified [7]. - Officials express concerns about inflation, with some indicating skepticism about the need for a December rate cut [7]. - The collective cautious tone among Fed officials diminishes market expectations for consecutive rate cuts [7]. Group 4: Economic Forecasts - Bank of America anticipates that the federal funds rate will remain in the range of 3.75-4.0% until late 2025, with potential cuts beginning under a new chair in mid-2026 [9]. - Inflation is expected to remain elevated due to tariff-related pressures, with core PCE growth projected around 3% from Q4 2025 to Q2 2026 [9]. - The labor market is forecasted to slow moderately, with the unemployment rate expected to rise gradually, peaking at 4.5% in 2026 [9]. - The overall economic outlook remains constructive, with growth projected at 1.8% for 2025 as uncertainties diminish and fiscal stimulus takes effect [9].

Core Points - The Iranian Guardian Council has approved a plan to remove four zeros from the national currency, the rial, as part of a long-discussed monetary reform [1][3] - The reform aims to simplify transactions and address severe inflation issues in Iran, which have been exacerbated by economic sanctions since the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018 [3] Summary by Sections - **Approval Process** - The Guardian Council reviewed and confirmed a bill passed by the Iranian parliament regarding the currency reform, stating it does not conflict with Islamic law or the constitution [3] - The bill will initiate a process to revalue the national currency once it becomes effective, with a gradual implementation over several years to ensure readiness [3] - **Background and Context** - Previous Iranian governments have mentioned the need for currency reform, with the current plan being a response to ongoing economic challenges [3] - The reform will mean that one new rial will be equivalent to 10,000 old rials, reflecting the significant devaluation of the currency [3] - **Economic Impact** - The currency reform is part of broader efforts to combat severe inflation and economic decline resulting from multiple rounds of sanctions imposed by Western countries [3]

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold has reached unprecedented levels, with international gold prices exceeding $3,700 per ounce and domestic gold jewelry prices surpassing 1,100 yuan per gram, indicating a strong bullish trend in the market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold has experienced a three-year bull market, driven by poor U.S. employment data and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which have created favorable conditions for gold prices [3]. - The recent surge in gold prices has been significant, with a 5% increase in a single week, marking a rare occurrence in the market [7]. - Gold prices have surpassed historical inflation-adjusted peaks, with current prices reflecting a significant increase compared to the past [3][7]. Group 2: Economic Context - The current economic environment is characterized by global political instability and economic conflicts, which have contributed to the rising gold prices [11]. - Historical comparisons show that the current economic situation mirrors past periods of high inflation and economic turmoil, particularly in developed economies [7][11]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumers tend to prefer purchasing gold when prices are rising, leading to increased demand despite high prices [13]. - The price disparity between domestic jewelry stores and wholesale markets, such as Shenzhen's Shui Bei market, has widened, with jewelry store prices significantly higher than international gold prices [13].