量化紧缩
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李槿:12/12黄金精准抄底4206!4300关口能否引爆新牛市?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-12 02:03
周四随着美联储连续第三次降息25个基点,黄金日内震荡来回洗盘,美盘后强势反弹,凌晨直接触及4286,白银也是跟着黄金继续创下新高。我们昨日实时 公开给出的4232多和4210多都大赚,实战更是在4206接近日内最低点的多! 美联储宣布从12月12日起购买约400亿$短期国债,管理市场流动性,进一步扩大了资产负债表,结束了2022年以来量化紧缩的进程。这种流动性注入对风险 资产构成利好,但对美元等避险资产形成压力,所以就对黄金形成了支撑。美指疲软、通胀持续、美债收益率下滑以及地缘政治风险,共同驱动黄金上涨。 黄金如果能顶破4300关口,或许预示着新一轮牛市的开启,今日短线顺势回落多为主。下方支撑4265,接近不破多。下方强支撑4250,假设黄金继续震荡关 注4235支撑。上方阻力关注4308,这里如果强势突破上方可以看向4330,甚至4350。 本轮预测在12月21日,也就是冬至附近,黄金可能会有新的转折! 【汇金趋势掌乾坤,每日思路见真章】 【操作思路】 回落4265附近短多,进一步关注4250支撑 反弹4308不破轻仓短空,强势冲高关注4330压制 更多实时关注李槿后续 昨日一路做多一路胜!成功五连胜收尾! ...
【环球财经】人工智能担忧刺激板块轮动 道指、标普500创新高
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-12-12 00:50
Jerry Chen说,由于美联储过去三年实行量化紧缩,资产负债表规模已经从峰值的9万亿美元回落至6.6 万亿美元,银行准备金降至2.9万亿美元的警戒线,且回购市场过去两个月始终处于不稳定状态(融资 利率一度超过利率区间上限),种种迹象说明市场流动性已经收紧至可能影响货币政策传导的程度。因 此,美联储重启扩表已经迫在眉睫,只是时间点比预期来的更早。 Jerry Chen表示,虽然美联储仅为购买短期国债,但在12月刚结束量化紧缩(QT)后马上开始扩表,还 是给投资者带来一定的想象空间。过去两个月,美联储已经通过公开市场操作在向市场进行流动性呵 护,在年底的流动性投放对市场来说相当于是一份圣诞大礼。 美国劳工部当日公布的数据显示,美国上周首次申领失业救济的人数为23.6万,高于市场预期的21.9万 和前一周修订后的19.2万。 个股方面,由于甲骨文公司在10日晚些时候发布的财报显示,在截至11月30日的一个季度,该公司实现 160.6亿美元营业收入,低于市场预期的162.1亿美元。同时,甲骨文公司上调资本支出预期,引发投资 者担忧。甲骨文公司股价当日显著下跌。 (文章来源:新华财经) 新华财经纽约12月11日电( ...
刚刚,暴跌!跳水!大空头,突发警告!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-11 11:09
另外,上周末,伯里还对美国AI巨头发出警告称,OpenAI将是下一个网景,注定要失败。伯里的言 论,剑指美国股市当下最受追捧的科技交易,暗示这类交易风险巨大。在发表上述言论之前,伯里近期 还披露了做空头寸并抨击了AI芯片巨头英伟达。 当地时间周三,电影《大空头》原型人物迈克尔·伯里(Michael Burry)在社交媒体上发帖称,美联储 重启购买短期国债的举动,凸显美国银行体系的脆弱。伯里还对美联储与美国财政部行动的一致性表示 担忧。 "大空头"伯里,发出多个警告! 伯里认为,美联储现在似乎在每次危机后都会扩大其资产负债表,以避免银行系统的资金压力,他说这 种动态有助于解释股市的强势。 "这种做法实际上的极限,可能是美国债券市场的完全国有化——即美联储持有所有40万亿美元的美国 债务。所以,继续狂欢吧,我猜。"伯里写道。 美联储本月早些时候正式结束了量化紧缩政策。自2022年以来,其资产负债表已缩减了约2.4万亿美 元。这一举措出台之际,融资市场,特别是规模达12万亿美元的回购市场,正显示出日益增长的波动 性。 短期回购利率已多次突破美联储的目标区间,引发了市场对流动性的担忧。Evercore ISI、美国银 ...
刚刚,暴跌!跳水!大空头,突发警告!
券商中国· 2025-12-11 11:00
Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry, the figure behind "The Big Short," warns that the Federal Reserve's resumption of short-term Treasury purchases highlights the fragility of the U.S. banking system and expresses concerns about the alignment of actions between the Fed and the U.S. Treasury [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - Burry indicates that the Fed's decision to restart purchasing short-term Treasury bonds, estimated at $35 billion to $45 billion monthly, signals increasing dependency of the banking system on Fed support [3]. - He emphasizes that without the Fed's support of over $3 trillion in reserves, the U.S. banking system would struggle to operate, marking a rapid decline in the system's strength compared to previous years [3]. - The Fed's recent end to quantitative tightening, which saw a reduction of approximately $2.4 trillion in its balance sheet since 2022, coincides with rising volatility in the $12 trillion repo market [4]. Group 2: Concerns Over AI Sector - Burry warns that the most popular trades in the U.S. stock market, particularly in the AI sector, are brewing a crisis, specifically targeting OpenAI, which he believes is destined to fail [6]. - He compares OpenAI to Netscape, suggesting that the company is burning cash rapidly and will not meet its financial needs despite raising $60 billion [6]. - Burry has also criticized Nvidia, indicating concerns over its GPU inventory and the sustainability of its AI infrastructure spending [7]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Recent market movements show a significant drop in tech stocks, with Oracle falling over 11% and Nvidia nearly 2%, amid fears of an AI valuation bubble [2]. - British pension funds are reducing their exposure to U.S. stocks due to concerns over the AI sector's inflated valuations, managing over £200 billion in assets [8]. - The European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund have echoed warnings about the high valuations of U.S. tech stocks, suggesting that a shift in market sentiment could pose significant risks [9].
为财政部接盘?伯里讽刺美联储重启购债:继续狂欢吧!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-12-11 09:52
Core Viewpoint - Investor Michael Burry warns that the Federal Reserve's resumption of Treasury purchases indicates an increasing dependency of the financial system on Fed support rather than stability [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has decided to halt the reduction of its balance sheet and plans to purchase approximately $35 billion to $45 billion in Treasury securities monthly, expected to start in January [1] - This decision comes after the Fed has reduced its assets by about $2.4 trillion since 2022, marking the end of quantitative tightening (QT) [1] Group 2: Financial System Vulnerability - Burry highlights the increasing fragility of the U.S. banking system, which required about $2.2 trillion in support before the banking turmoil of 2023, compared to only $450 billion in 2007 [1] - He suggests that the current reliance on over $3 trillion in Fed support is a sign of weakness rather than strength [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Burry questions the timing of the Fed's actions, noting that the Treasury has been issuing more short-term securities to avoid raising 10-year Treasury yields, implying a strategic coincidence in the Fed's focus on short-term purchases [1] - He argues that the Fed's pattern of expanding its balance sheet after each crisis helps explain the strong performance of the stock market [1] - Burry warns that this approach could lead to the complete nationalization of the U.S. bond market, with the Fed owning all $40 trillion of U.S. debt [1]
美联储如期降息25个基点,时隔三年美联储重启扩表
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-12-11 01:26
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to lower the interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive rate cut this year, amidst internal divisions within the FOMC regarding the direction of monetary policy [1][10]. Economic Outlook - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with job growth slowing and the unemployment rate slightly increasing as of September [3]. - The Fed has revised its economic growth forecast for this year upward by 0.1 percentage points to 1.7%, and for 2026 and 2027, the growth forecasts have been adjusted to 2.3% and 2.0% respectively [3]. - Inflation remains a concern, with the Fed projecting core PCE growth at 3.0% for 2025, down 0.1 percentage points from previous estimates, and overall PCE growth adjusted to 2.9% for this year [4]. Labor Market - The labor market shows resilience, with the Fed maintaining its unemployment rate projections at 4.5% for 2025 and 4.4% for 2026 [4]. - Recent data indicates a trend of low hiring and low layoffs, although there are signals of increasing layoff pressures, with announced layoffs exceeding 1.1 million as of November [11]. Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The Fed has initiated a short-term Treasury bond purchase program to manage market liquidity, starting with $40 billion in purchases [2][8]. - The FOMC's internal divisions are evident, with differing opinions on future rate cuts, as some members advocate for maintaining rates while others support further cuts [6][12]. - Market expectations are increasingly aggressive, with a 72% probability of at least two rate cuts next year, reflecting uncertainty in the Fed's future policy direction [12].
3票反对!美联储鹰派降息,扩表时隔三年再次重启
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-12-10 23:48
内部分裂依旧,利率点阵图维持明年降息1次预测。 北京时间周四(11日)凌晨,美联储公布12月利率决议。联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)以9-3的方式决定下调利率区间25个基点至 3.50%-3.75%,这也是今年连续第三次降息,米兰倾向于下调50个基点,堪萨斯联储主席施密德再次投下反对票,倾向于维持联邦基金利率目标 区间不变,这一次他获得了芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比的支持。 美联储同时宣布,将启动短期国债购买计划,以此调节市场流动性水平,确保央行对自身利率目标体系保持稳定控制。 美联储在季度经济展望(SEP)中上修经济预测,通胀预测小幅下修,就业市场基本稳定,备受关注的点阵图预测明年或仅降息1次,与9月一 致。美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示,目前联邦基金利率已处于中性利率的大致预估区间内,完全有条件静观经济走势的变化。货币政 策并非遵循预设路径,我们将在每次会议上根据实际情况作出决策。 经济前景稳定 美联储决议声明显示,经济活动正以温和步伐扩张。今年以来,就业岗位增长有所放缓,失业率截至9月已小幅上升。近期公布的更多指标也与 上述趋势相符。通胀水平自年初以来有所抬头,目前仍处于偏高区间。 鲍威尔在发布会上透露, ...
时隔三年,美联储重启扩表
第一财经· 2025-12-10 23:38
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to lower the interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive rate cut this year, amidst a backdrop of mixed economic signals and internal divisions within the FOMC [3][4][14]. Economic Outlook - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with job growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate as of September. Inflation remains elevated, indicating persistent price pressures [5][7]. - The Fed has revised its economic growth forecast for this year upward by 0.1 percentage points to 1.7%, and for 2026, the forecast was increased by 0.5 percentage points to 2.3% [6][7]. Inflation Dynamics - Inflation pressures are still significant, with the Fed projecting core PCE inflation at 3.0% for 2025, down 0.1 percentage points from previous estimates. Overall PCE inflation is expected to be 2.9% for this year [7][8]. - The Fed Chairman noted that tariffs imposed during the Trump administration have contributed to inflation, but he believes their impact will be temporary [7]. Labor Market Insights - The labor market remains resilient, with the unemployment rate projected at 4.5% for 2025 and 4.4% for 2026, consistent with previous forecasts [7][8]. - Recent data indicates a trend of low hiring and low layoffs, although there are signs of increasing layoff pressures, with announced layoffs exceeding 1.1 million as of November [15]. Interest Rate Projections - The FOMC's interest rate projections remain unchanged, with a median rate of 3.4% for 2026, suggesting a potential rate cut next year [9][14]. - Internal divisions within the FOMC are evident, with some members advocating for maintaining rates while others support further cuts, reflecting uncertainty in future monetary policy [9][16]. Policy Outlook - The Fed is entering a wait-and-see mode, having cut rates by a total of 75 basis points since September, and is prepared to adjust rates based on new economic data [11][12]. - The Fed has announced a plan to restart short-term Treasury purchases to manage market liquidity, which had tightened recently [11][12].
鲍威尔动向曝光,450亿购债计划浮出水面,市场或迎重大利好
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-10 05:38
再说做法——美银同时预计,美联储会推出为期1至2周的定期回购操作,用来应付年末流动性的季节性紧张,这类操作可能以SRF利率持平或高出5个基点 来定价,目的非常务实,是在削掉年末的尾部风险,别把它想象成长期方案,这是临时雨伞。 别急着笑,这450亿不是随口说说,它有数学,有逻辑,Cabana把数字拆开说清楚,一点儿也不含糊200亿,是应付负债自然增长的刚需,250亿,是弥补此 前"过度缩表"造成的准备金流失,合计450亿,至少持续六个月,好像并非是临时抱佛脚,而是打算当成常态操作来做。 回购市场给了最直观的证据,SOFR和TGCR这些看着拗口的利率,最近几个月频繁冲破政策利率走廊的上限,隔夜利率像被扎了风筝线,往上窜,这说明 什么,不言自明——银行体系的准备金,从"充裕"走向"充足",甚至可能进一步走向"稀缺",而这是美联储难以长期容忍的,因为传导机制会被削弱,利率 信号会变形,政策效果会打折。 有人会说,这不过是技术性调节,有啥大惊小怪,难道要把买国债说成救市吗?错了,技术性背后是制度性转向,买国库券不是把印钞机开回去,而是调整 货币政策工具包的重心,是在用资产负债表来做利率管理的配套工作,是在说"单靠利率, ...
美联储即将摊牌!今夜降息25个基点无悬念 但“鹰派”表态或成主旋律
智通财经网· 2025-12-10 00:51
智通财经APP获悉,美联储即将于北京时间周四凌晨3点公布最新利率决议。在经历了一段时间对于美 联储决策方向的明显犹豫之后,市场目前已基本确信,美联储将连续第三次降息25个基点,使联邦基金 利率降至3.5%-3.75%。 多重变量交织 梅里克预计,在本周的政策会议上很可能再次出现异议投票,并伴有其他多个"软性异议",这些异议将 在"点阵图"上体现不同的观点。"点阵图"以匿名方式展示了19位会议参与者(包括12位有投票权的成员) 各自对利率前景的展望。梅里克补充称,尽管有"充分的理由"支持美联储在本周的连续第三次降息,但 双方都有论据支持。 美联储前货币事务主管、现任耶鲁大学教授比尔·英格利希(Bill English)表示:"最有可能的结果是一种 鹰派降息——他们会降息,但在声明和新闻发布会上暗示,短期内可能已经完成降息周期。"他预计, 美联储传达的信息将是"他们已做出调整,对当前立场感到满意,并且认为只要经济形势大致符合预 期,近期无需采取更多行动"。 整个联邦公开市场委员会的立场将体现在会后声明以及美联储主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会上。华尔街经济 评论人士预计,声明措辞可能会回到一年前的表述,提及"进一步调整的幅 ...