盯盘神器·现货黄金：金价快速飙升 非农数据低于预期，金价快速飙升。盯盘神器（15分钟）显示，黄金上方最阻力位在3332.66-3339.51，为多个级别的阻力构成 压制。下方支撑位关注3307.51的保护。多头订单占比为52.48%，而空头占比为47.47%，多头明显占优。 ...

黄金支撑近在眼前，今晚非农会怎么走？反复波动下的金价，会借机走出单边趋势吗？点击查看分析！ 相关链接 黄金关键位已变化，非农有哪些信号？ ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that global gold demand reached 1249 tons in Q2 2025, a 3% year-on-year increase, driven primarily by strong investment demand [1] - Global gold ETF net inflows totaled 170 tons in Q2, with Asia contributing 70 tons and North America 73 tons, leading to a record total of 397 tons for the first half of the year, the highest since 2020 [1] - Investment demand for gold bars and coins in Q2 was 307 tons, an 11% increase year-on-year, with China seeing a significant surge of 44% to 115 tons, while the US experienced a 53% decline [1] Group 2 - Global jewelry demand fell by 14% year-on-year in Q2, nearing 2020's low levels, although the value of global jewelry consumption increased [1] - Central banks continued to purchase gold, adding 166 tons in Q2, despite a slowdown in the pace of purchases, with 95% of surveyed central banks expecting further increases in gold reserves over the next 12 months [1] - On the supply side, total gold supply reached 1249 tons in Q2, a 3% year-on-year increase, with recycled gold supply rising by 4% [2] Group 3 - The price of gold increased by 26% in USD terms in the first half of the year, with expectations of potential price stability in the second half due to uncertain macroeconomic conditions [2] - The attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset may increase if global economic or geopolitical situations worsen, potentially driving prices higher [2]

Group 1 - Hong Kong gold stocks are experiencing a decline, with Tongguan Gold falling over 8% for six consecutive days, and other companies like Zijin Mining, Lingbao Gold, Shandong Gold, and China Silver Group dropping over 4% [1] - The night session saw spot gold prices drop, briefly falling below $3,270 per ounce, with a nearly 2% decline during trading [3] - Chinese investors are shifting funds from gold ETFs to domestic stocks, with a record net outflow of approximately 3.2 billion yuan from four major domestic gold ETFs in July [3] Group 2 - The outflow of funds is primarily driven by individual investors, as gold has been trading within a narrow range, leading to decreased enthusiasm for gold investments [3] - Morgan Stanley indicates that the key to gold price increases lies in ETF inflows, which depend on the Federal Reserve meeting interest rate cut expectations and pushing down U.S. real yields [3] - In an optimistic scenario, gold prices are projected to reach a target of $3,675 per ounce by the end of the year, with expectations of hitting $4,000 per ounce by early next year [3]

小非农ADP，叠加美二季度GDP来袭，金价能否走出震荡困局？金十研究员高阳GMA行情分析中，点 击进入直播间 相关链接 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Lianhe Securities on July 30 recommends a "buy" rating for Chifeng Gold (600988.SH) based on its strong operational capabilities and favorable market conditions for gold in the upcoming quarters [2] Group 1: Company Operations - Chifeng Gold manages and operates four gold mines domestically, which forms the foundation of its gold supply system [2] - The company also manages and operates two gold mines internationally, representing a strategic attempt at internationalization [2] Group 2: Resource and Cost Management - The company possesses excellent resource endowments and demonstrates outstanding cost control capabilities [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - Although short-term gold prices may face pressure, the expected downside is limited, with potential upward opportunities in the fourth quarter driven by anticipated liquidity easing from a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [2]

Group 1 - Domestic gold prices have shown a stable upward trend, with Zhou Shengsheng's gold price increasing by 7 yuan per gram to 1001 yuan per gram, making it the highest-priced store [1][3] - Shanghai China Gold's price decreased by 12 yuan per gram to 969 yuan per gram, marking it as the lowest-priced store, resulting in a price difference of 32 yuan per gram between the highest and lowest [1][3] - The latest prices from various gold brands include: Lao Miao at 999 yuan per gram (up 4), Liufu at 998 yuan per gram (unchanged), Zhou Dafu at 998 yuan per gram (unchanged), and Zhou Liufu at 978 yuan per gram (unchanged) [1][3][4] Group 2 - Platinum prices have continued to decline, with Zhou Shengsheng's platinum jewelry price dropping by 2 yuan per gram to 567 yuan per gram [4] - The gold recovery price has increased by 3.1 yuan per gram, with significant price differences among brands, such as Cai Bai at 765.70 yuan per gram and Lao Fengxiang at 773.20 yuan per gram [4] Group 3 - International gold prices have shown a slight upward trend, with spot gold reaching a high of 3333.89 USD per ounce and closing at 3326.38 USD per ounce, reflecting a 0.35% increase [7] - The increase in gold prices was supported by disappointing US job vacancy data and heightened market risk aversion due to ongoing geopolitical tensions [7] - Market analysts suggest that upcoming US GDP data and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions will significantly influence gold price movements [7]

Group 1 - The current gold price is approximately 766 yuan per gram based on 24K pure gold, with additional costs for gold bars typically ranging from 10 to 20 yuan per gram or more [1] - If gold prices continue to retreat to the 760-765 yuan per gram range, the retail price of gold bars may stabilize between 780 and 790 yuan per gram, with a low probability of exceeding 800 yuan per gram in the short term [3] - Despite a four-day decline, gold prices remain high, and the possibility of gold bar retail prices exceeding 800 yuan per gram depends on whether the base gold price continues to rise and the level of processing premiums [5] Group 2 - Smaller gold bars (such as 1 gram and 5 grams) incur higher labor and packaging costs, resulting in final prices that can be significantly higher than the spot price by several tens of yuan per gram [1] - Should gold prices rebound above 790 yuan per gram or if processing costs increase, it is not uncommon for some gold bar retail prices to reach above 800 yuan per gram [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price rose first and then fell, showing an inverted V-shaped trend. The upward movement was due to market concerns about the US tariff node on August 1st and the Fed's interest rate meeting at the end of July. However, positive trade signals from the US, Japan, Europe, and China reduced trade policy uncertainty, increasing market risk appetite and pressuring the gold price. Currently, the gold price is at a low level of oscillation since the second quarter, and the battle between bulls and bears at the $3300 mark can be observed [5][27]. - In the long term, since the second quarter, the gold price has been oscillating at a high level. Even the tense situation in the Middle East has not pushed the gold price to break through, indicating significant upward pressure. In the medium to long term, after the relaxation of US tariff policies and the easing of Sino-US relations, the market risk appetite has increased, the equity market has performed well, and the gold price has been under pressure, with the gold-silver ratio continuing to weaken. It is expected that the gold price will maintain an oscillating trend, and a straddle option combination can be considered. In the short term, attention can be paid to the Fed's interest rate meeting at the end of July and the latest US tariff policy on August 1st, which may impact the short-term market [5][27]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report presents a graph of the linkage between the US dollar index and the COMEX gold futures closing price [8]. 1.2 Indicator Price Changes | Indicator | July 25 | July 18 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $3,338.50 | $3,355.50 | -0.51% | | COMEX Silver | $38.33 | $38.43 | -0.26% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 777.32 | 777.02 | 0.04% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 9,392.00 | 9,273.00 | 1.28% | | US Dollar Index | 97.67 | 98.47 | -0.82% | | US Dollar against Offshore RMB | 7.17 | 7.18 | -0.18% | | 10-Year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.96 | 2.03 | -0.07 | | S&P 500 | 6,388.64 | 6,296.79 | 1.46% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | $65.07 | $67.30 | -3.31% | | COMEX Gold-Silver Ratio | 87.11 | 87.33 | -0.25% | | SHFE Gold-Silver Ratio | 82.76 | 83.79 | -1.23% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 957.09 | 943.63 | 13.46 | | iShare Gold ETF | 449.60 | 446.96 | 2.64 | [9] 2. Gold Price Maintains Oscillating Trend - Last week, the gold price rose first and then fell, corresponding to a bottoming-out and rebound of the US dollar index, while the US Treasury yield remained weak. Positive trade policy signals from the US, Japan, and Europe reduced the short-term safe-haven demand for gold [11]. - The US stock market remained strong last week, with high market risk appetite, which pressured the gold price [13]. 3. Other Indicator Tracking - Since late May, the net long position of non-commercial traders on COMEX has been rising. As of July 22, compared with the previous week, the long position changed by 41,722 contracts, the short position by 1,799 contracts, and the net long position by 39,923 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the precious metal price trend than the gold ETF, but its update frequency is low and timeliness is poor [15]. - Since late May, the gold ETF has been climbing. In early June, the silver price rose significantly, with obvious ETF inflows, showing a combination of rising volume and price. After silver broke through the high in May 2024, capital attention increased rapidly, and it is expected to maintain its strength [17]. - Last week, the silver price rose first and then fell. In the first half of the week, the New York silver price approached $40 per ounce, and the Shanghai silver price reached 9,500 yuan per kilogram. As the gold price fell, the silver price also declined, and the gold-silver ratio rebounded slightly [20]. 4. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the short - and long - term trends of the gold price and suggesting attention to relevant events and investment strategies [5][27].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a volatile adjustment trend, with a focus on potential support levels for a bullish outlook in the near future [1][4][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - Last week, international gold prices fluctuated, starting at $3349.33 and reaching a high of $3438.67 before dropping to a low of $3325.05, ultimately closing at $3338.50, reflecting a weekly decline of $10.83 or 0.32% [1]. - The market saw a significant weekly volatility of $113.62, indicating a turbulent trading environment [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The gold price is currently facing strong technical resistance, which has contributed to its recent decline [3][4]. - The monthly chart indicates a potential bearish trend, with risks of a drop to $3000 or $2500 if the upward trend support is broken [9]. - However, the overall bullish trend remains intact as long as prices stay above the 5-month moving average and within the previous upward trend channel [9]. Group 3: Fundamental Factors - Optimism surrounding trade agreements and the potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are influencing gold prices, with expectations of a bullish market during the rate-cutting cycle [7]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may need to implement more aggressive easing policies than currently predicted, which could further support gold prices [7]. - The geopolitical landscape and ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and China are critical factors that could lead to either a rebound in gold prices or further declines depending on the outcomes [4][6]. Group 4: Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3324 and $3304, while resistance levels are at $3340 and $3357 [11]. - For silver, support is noted at $37.80 and $37.40, with resistance at $38.45 and $38.70 [11].