Market Performance - On September 18, the three major A-share indices collectively closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3831.66, down 1.15%; the Shenzhen Component Index at 13015.66, down 1.06%; and the ChiNext Index at 3095.85, down 1.64% [1] - The total trading volume for the day was 31,666 billion yuan, an increase of 7,637 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Sector Performance - In terms of sector performance, tourism and hotel, CPO hardware, pharmaceutical commerce, and wind power equipment sectors saw the largest gains [5] - Notable stocks included Yunnan Tourism and Qujiang Cultural Tourism, which hit the daily limit, while Xizang Tourism, Xian Tourism, and Huatian Hotel rose over 6% [5] - The CPO sector saw Dekeli and Huafeng Technology also hit the daily limit, with Guangku Technology rising by 15% [5] - In the pharmaceutical sector, China National Pharmaceutical surged to the daily limit, and Liuyuan Group rose over 5% [5] Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4% to 4.25% [5] - The rate cut is viewed as a "risk management" measure rather than the beginning of a series of cuts, which has led to some market disappointment [5] - Analysts suggest that the Fed's decision opens up more room for monetary policy adjustments in China, potentially leading to rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to stimulate the economy and stabilize the real estate and stock markets [6][7] - The overall sentiment is that the current A-share and Hong Kong markets are in a slow bull market, expected to last two to three years, encouraging investors to maintain confidence and patience [6]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve restarted interest rate cuts by 25 basis points, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.00% to 4.25%[2] - The Fed's guidance indicates a potential for three more rate cuts within the year, adjusting the median rate forecast down from 3.9% to 3.6%[14] - The meeting's tone was dovish, reflecting concerns over employment risks and a shift in the balance of risks[3][8] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.6%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.3%[4] - The 10-year Treasury yield increased by 2 basis points to 4.06%, and the 2-year yield rose by 1 basis point to 3.52%[4] - The market's expectation for a 50 basis point cut was not fully met, leading to a mixed reaction in equities and a rebound in bond yields[3][7] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Non-farm payroll data was significantly revised downwards, with a reduction of 91,100 jobs over the past 12 months, intensifying rate cut expectations[5][6] - The Fed's economic outlook was upgraded, suggesting that rate cuts could stimulate durable goods consumption and real estate investment[8][14] - Inflation pressures are expected to remain manageable, with the Fed indicating that the current economic conditions do not warrant aggressive rate hikes[21][26]

Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% as expected[2] - The median dot plot indicates a potential further reduction of 50 basis points within the year[2] - The analysis suggests that the Fed may have approximately 70 basis points of additional rate cut space based on the Taylor rule[3] Group 2: Economic Forecasts - The Fed raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6%[2] - The PCE inflation forecast for 2025 remains at 3.0%, while the 2026 forecast was increased by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%[2] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2025 is maintained at 4.5%, with slight reductions for 2026 and 2027[2] Group 3: Employment and Inflation Concerns - The FOMC statement reflects concerns about the labor market, noting a slowdown in job gains and an increase in the unemployment rate[2] - The report highlights upward pressure on inflation due to rising retail prices and inventory levels[3][8] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, asset prices exhibited volatility, with the 2-year Treasury yield rising by 5 basis points to 3.55%[3] - The market's initial expectations of a 50 basis point cut were tempered by Powell's comments, leading to a reversal in asset price movements[3]

——2025 年 9 月美联储议息会议点评 本报告导读： 宏 观 研 究 美联储开启预防式降息周期 [Table_Authors] 汪浩(分析师) 2025 年 9 月美联储议息会议降息 25BP 基本符合预期，新一轮预防式降息周期正式 开启，预计年内仍有两次降息，但长期降息节奏仍旧偏缓。预计预防式降息周期下， 后续美债利率下行放缓，美股仍有持续支撑，美元指数先下后震荡。 投资要点： 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.09.18 | | 0755-23976659 | | --- | --- | | | wanghao8@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880521120002 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | 021-23219820 | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 收支有待提振 2025.09.17 美国就业：是否有失速风险 2025.09.15 总量需加力，结构有亮点 2025.09.15 信贷与货币：分化延续 2025.09.12 "存款搬家"：如 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25% during its monetary policy meeting on September 17, 2025, which is characterized as a risk management cut [1][2] - The focus of the Federal Reserve's policy-making is shifting from inflation to employment, with an emphasis on the risks in the labor market influencing the decision to cut rates [2][3] - The updated dot plot indicates a higher likelihood of two additional rate cuts within the year, totaling a 50 basis point reduction, aligning with market expectations [1][2] Group 2 - Short-term gold prices have limited upward potential, with a recent increase of 11.82% in London spot gold prices over the past month, suggesting that the market has already priced in the rate cut [3] - The consistency among Federal Reserve board members regarding the rate cut decision indicates limited political interference from the White House, although potential changes in board member appointments could impact future policy directions [3][4] - The long-term bullish outlook for gold remains intact, supported by the anticipated rate cuts and ongoing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with China increasing its gold reserves for the tenth consecutive month [4]

行业研究｜贵金属 2025 年 09 月 18 日 证券研究报告 降息落地后，金价的可能走向 [Table_Author] 李纵横 分析师 Email:lizongheng@lczq.com 证书:S1320524090001 投资要点： 2025 年 9 月 17 日1，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策 会议，美联储主席鲍威尔宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25 个基点到 4.00%至 4.25%之间。 美联储政策制定关注重点将由通胀转向就业。双重目标平衡层面，鲍威尔 2表示美国劳动力市场的风险是做出降息决定的重点，并且强调"市场风 险平衡已发生转变，就业面临下行风险"、"美联储的政策一直侧重针对通 胀，现在正朝着更中性的政策方向发展"。 年内降息路径及幅度相对明晰。对于本轮降息性质，鲍威尔将其明确定义 为预防式降息（risk management cut），后续政策制定仍将取决于经济数 据表现。从更新的点阵图所呈现的预期判断，年内再次进行两次降息操 作，降息 50 个基点的可能性更大，基本符合市场预期。 短期金价继续上行空间有限，提示关注回调风险。伦敦现货黄金价格近一 月涨幅 11.82%，前期对 ...

新华财经北京9月18日电美东时间9月17日周三，美联储货币政策委员会公布，联邦基金利率的目标区间 从4.25%-4.5%降至4.00%-4.25%，降幅25个基点。这是美联储今年开年以来九个月内首次决定降息。本 次决议声明新增指出美国就业增长已放缓、失业率略升、就业下行风险增加、风险平衡已转变，删除劳 动力市场稳健。 具体来看，特朗普"钦点"的新晋理事米兰一人投反对票，主张降息50基点，上次会议投票反对的两人均 支持本次利率决议。利率预测中位值显示联储预计今年共降息三次，较上次增一次，明年再降一次。点 阵图显示，九人预计今年内再降息两次，人数未过半，六人预计年内不再降息，一人预计降息五次、即 今年合计降息150基点。美联储上调今明后年GDP增长预期，下调明后年的失业率预期，上调明后年 PCE通胀预期，预计2028年通胀达到目标2%。 预防式降息基调下，预计年内还将降息两次，但消费韧性及通胀压力下，长期降息节奏将仍旧偏缓，是 否能够开启连续降息存在较强的不确定性。 白雪认为，2026年的政策路径将更加依赖经济、就业数据的演变趋势与政治周期的互动，是否连续降息 的不确定性较高。近期美国非农新增就业数据的大幅下调在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve marks the beginning of a new easing cycle, but the underlying logic differs significantly from last year's cuts, leading to potential risks alongside opportunities [2][4]. Group 1: Differences in Rate Cuts - The current rate cut is categorized as a "recessionary cut," aimed at addressing a deteriorating job market and persistent inflation, contrasting with last year's "preventive cut" which was initiated under stable economic conditions [4][7]. - Recent non-farm payroll data has been significantly revised downward, indicating a rapid deterioration in the U.S. job market [6]. - The U.S. economy is facing stagflation, with inflation remaining far from the 2% target, complicating the effectiveness of the rate cut [7]. Group 2: Global Response and Economic Context - Unlike last year, other countries are not under significant exchange rate pressure and have already adjusted their rates, limiting the global stimulus effect of the Fed's rate cut this year [9]. - The European Central Bank has already cut rates in June and is not expected to follow the Fed's lead immediately, indicating a lack of synchronized global monetary policy [9]. Group 3: China's Economic Strategy - China's economic stimulus approach has shifted from broad-based measures to targeted support, focusing on innovation and consumption rather than indiscriminate easing [10][12]. - Initiatives include encouraging small tech firms to go public and providing consumer loan subsidies to boost domestic demand, reflecting a more strategic economic policy [12]. - The current low-interest-rate environment limits further rate cuts, making it challenging to replicate last year's broad-based economic benefits [12].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 4% to 4.25% is seen as a preventive measure, aligning with market expectations and potentially benefiting various asset classes, particularly in China [2][4][13]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, gold prices experienced a temporary pullback, while major Chinese stock indices, such as the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component, rose over 0.5% [2]. - Key sectors like semiconductors, communication equipment, and chips led the gains, while gold and jewelry stocks saw declines, with some individual stocks dropping over 4% [2]. Investment Opportunities - Multiple institutions suggest that the rate cut opens up opportunities in Chinese equities, bonds, and the renminbi, with a particular emphasis on Hong Kong's core assets [4][9][13]. - The potential for synchronized monetary easing between the U.S. and China could attract foreign capital into Hong Kong stocks [4]. Asset Class Performance - Risk assets are expected to perform well in a mild rate-cutting environment, while gold may face mixed results due to differing market conditions [5]. - The overall sentiment indicates that the rate cut is likely to benefit Chinese assets, with expectations of further monetary easing in China following the Fed's actions [9][13]. Sector-Specific Insights - Investment opportunities are highlighted in sectors with significant foreign investment, companies with substantial dollar-denominated debt, and industries poised for growth such as technology and renewable energy [10]. - The focus is also on sectors that are less affected by trade uncertainties and currency fluctuations, such as home appliances and engineering machinery [10]. Long-Term Outlook - The Fed's rate cut is anticipated to support corporate earnings, particularly in the U.S. stock market, while the bond market may see a flattening yield curve [16][17]. - The overall liquidity improvement is expected to benefit long-term assets, although caution is advised regarding potential market volatility due to high valuations [17].

博时基金热点解析 美联储如期降息25bp ❗️ 基金有风险，投资需谨慎。基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不保 证基金一定盈利，也不保证收益。基金的过往业绩并不预示其未来表现。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 市场方面，由于降息未超预期，美债利率和美元反弹，黄金下跌，美股先跌后涨收平。 对此，博时基金认为： 本次降息为预防式降息，从历史来看，美国制造业在降息开启后1年从底部回暖，预期降息或将带来 2026年美国的增长与通胀边际上行。 回顾历史，历次降息后1个月、3个月和6个月内，A股、港股表现可能较好，本次降息叠加中国AI产业 竞争力提升，看好中国资产后续行情。 数据来源：Wind、美联储，截至2025年9月18日。 ☀️热点☀️ 美联储9月FOMC会议重启降息，将联邦基金利率的目标区间下降25bp至4~4.25%，符合市场预期。同 时，美联储下调超额准备金利率25个基点至4.15%，下调储备金利率25个基点至4%，并决定维持当前资 产负债表缩减步伐。美联储点阵图预期今年或还将降息2次（共50bp）。 决议中，美联储认为"就业增长放缓"、"判断就业形势的下行风险已经上升"、 ...