Group 1 - The core strategy of the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes building a modern industrial system, achieving high-level technological self-reliance, and expanding domestic demand as the three main strategic tasks for China's economic breakthrough [3][4]. - Manufacturing upgrades and technological innovation are identified as the driving forces of development, determining what can be supplied, while domestic demand serves as the strategic foundation, influencing whether there is a broad market for these supplies [3][4]. - The current economic environment shows a need for a balance between manufacturing upgrades and boosting domestic demand, with a focus on strengthening the real economy and addressing external uncertainties through domestic circulation [4][10]. Group 2 - In 2025, China's economy demonstrated resilience and structural changes despite a complex domestic and international environment, with innovation and resilience being key themes [5][7]. - The GDP growth rate for 2025 is projected to be around 5%, supported by proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary policies aimed at stabilizing investment and consumption [7][10]. - Significant changes in the market include breakthroughs in technology, particularly in artificial intelligence and high-end manufacturing, which reflect China's innovative capabilities [8][10]. Group 3 - Looking ahead to 2026, investment opportunities are expected to arise from the ongoing technological revolution, with sectors like artificial intelligence, new energy, and biomedicine poised for significant growth [11][12]. - The external environment is anticipated to become more favorable, with expected easing policies from the U.S. and Europe, which could support China's economic growth [11][12]. - The market structure is shifting, with a historical transition in asset allocation from real estate to financial assets, indicating a change in investment strategies among Chinese residents [13][14].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report maintains a moderately optimistic view on certain equity and commodity assets [3][10][15]. Core Viewpoints The Political Bureau meeting held on December 8, 2025, set a relatively positive tone for the economic work in 2026. The meeting outlined five key points, including a new work tone, loose and proactive fiscal and monetary policies, emphasis on key tasks in the 15th Five - Year Plan, understanding of internal risks, and special arrangements for low - carbon transformation. These may have potential impacts on major assets such as equity indices, interest rates, exchange rates, and commodities [4][5][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Economy - The meeting set the core tone for 2026 economic work, with specific arrangements to be made at the Central Economic Work Conference [14]. - Five key focuses: new work tone of coordinating domestic and international economic affairs; potentially loose and proactive fiscal and monetary policies; emphasis on 15th Five - Year Plan tasks like expanding domestic demand and innovation; awareness and arrangements for internal risks; and special work for low - carbon transformation [15][16][17]. 2. Equity Index - The meeting's policy is supportive, emphasizing domestic demand and technological innovation. In the stock market, take a long - term view, wait for the "spring rally" window, and focus on technology and the price - increase chain. At the end of the year, the market consolidates to release capital crowding, and pullbacks are opportunities to add positions. Short - term focus on price - increase chain and high - dividend stocks, and medium - term on innovation and IC sectors [20][21][22]. 3. Bond and Forex - Fiscal policies will be more proactive, and monetary policies will be moderately loosened in 2026. Short - term caution on the long end of government bonds, and medium - term the bond market may be strong and volatile. The RMB exchange rate in 2026 may show a stable and rising trend with an operating range of 6.8 - 7.2 [27][30][31]. 4. Commodities - The meeting's policies are conducive to stabilizing the macro - expectations on the demand side of the commodity market. Traditional domestic demand areas will receive support, and green transformation will create incremental demand for new - energy - related commodities. The meeting will restrain excessive price fluctuations of key varieties and boost market confidence [33][35][36].

【博时市场点评12月10日】两市缩量震荡，沪指险守3900点 每日观点 今日沪深三大指数涨跌不一，沪指收跌0.23%险守3900点，两市成交较前一日缩量至1.79万亿。近日海 关总署公布11月进出口数据，按美元计价，11月出口同比增长5.9%，进口同比增长1.9%，外贸增速回 升，展现出较强韧性。从结构来看，新质生产力产品出口增速亮眼，传统劳动密集型产品则表现较弱， 其中汽车、船舶、集成电路等机电产品出口增长8.8%，占出口总值超六成。从区域来看，在对美出口 连续第8个月出现两位数下滑的背景下，我国对欧盟、东盟以及共建"一带一路"国家的出口相对强劲， 有效对冲了单一市场的波动风险。10月底中美元首会晤后，中美关税压力边际缓解，但在11月数据中或 仍未完全体现。12月进出口数据或因基数效应有所波动，预计明年随着中美经贸关系不确定性的降低， 叠加我国出口市场多元化效果仍在，外贸数据有望呈现出稳定修复的态势。 消息面 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 12月10日，国家统计局公布数据显示，11月居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比略降0.1%，同比上涨0.7%， 扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%。工业 ...

Core Insights - The ongoing great power competition is profoundly reshaping the global landscape, necessitating companies to focus on risk defense and flexible responses in the short term, while emphasizing independent innovation and global integration in the medium to long term [2][3] Group 1: Global Landscape and Strategic Signals - The U.S.-China competition has entered a prolonged phase, accelerating the profound restructuring of global industrial and value chains [3] - The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China has indicated that the development environment during the 14th Five-Year Plan will be complex and uncertain, but China's economic foundation remains strong with significant potential for long-term growth [3] - Three key signals from the Congress include: responding to external uncertainties with internal certainties, leveraging independent innovation to break through competitive barriers, and countering protectionism through openness [3][4] Group 2: Industrial Layout and Global Economic Impact - The 14th Five-Year Plan's industrial layout will significantly impact the global economic structure by promoting supply chain diversification, providing alternative sources of technology, products, and capital beyond traditional Western centers [4] - It will accelerate the democratization of technology, allowing more countries to access advanced technologies at lower costs, while intensifying global competition in cutting-edge fields [4] - The plan aims to establish new paradigms in green and digital sectors, with China's large green industry driving global low-carbon transitions and setting new benchmarks for supply chain efficiency through the integration of digital technology and the real economy [4] Group 3: Corporate Strategies in Response to Great Power Competition - Companies should adapt to the changing landscape by focusing on risk defense and flexible strategies, including establishing backup supply chains for critical sectors, tariff hedging through overseas production, and prioritizing compliance in cross-border mergers and investments [5][6] - In the medium to long term, companies should emphasize independent innovation in key areas such as AI, chips, and new energy, while deepening global operations and promoting Chinese technology standards internationally [6] - The rise of the "Global South" and the increasing influence of regional trade agreements indicate a shift towards a more fragmented but potentially fairer global trade environment [5][6] Group 4: Personal Development and Investment Strategies - Individuals are encouraged to integrate into global value networks, enhance their skills to improve competitiveness, and diversify investments across various asset classes to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [6]

2026省级两会时间陆续公布，多地1月下旬召开 中新网北京12月10日电 (记者 邵萌)距离2026年仅剩不到一个月，各地也将进入一年一度的省级地方两会时间。据中新网记者统计，截至12月9日晚，全国至 少已有17个省份公布了2026年省级人代会的召开时间。 2026年是"十五五"开局之年，各地将晒出怎样的经济社会发展"成绩单"，地方版的发展蓝图将如何规划，备受瞩目。 资料图：2025年1月18日，云南省第十四届人民代表大会第三次会议在昆明开幕。中新社记者 刘冉阳 摄 多地公布2026年省级两会时间 近期，在全国多个省份召开的省级人大常委会会议上，各地2026年省级人代会的时间安排陆续出炉。 其中，河南省第十四届人民代表大会第四次会议将于2026年1月26日在郑州召开，是目前已公布会议时间的省份中召开时间最早的。江西省第十四届人民代 表大会第四次会议于2026年1月27日在南昌召开，同一天召开的还有海南省第七届人民代表大会第五次会议。 其他多地还未明确省级人代会的具体日期。例如，河北、陕西、贵州、广东、吉林都将会议召开时间定为"1月下旬"；江苏、甘肃、内蒙古将会议召开时间 定为"2月上旬"；湖北等省份仅确定将于 ...

Core Insights - The training program aims to enhance the professional capabilities of project management personnel in Henan Province, aligning with the spirit of the 20th Central Committee and the directives from the provincial government [1][2] Group 1: Training Objectives and Structure - The training focuses on the implementation of the 20th Central Committee's spirit, major project planning, securing policy funds, and ensuring the construction of key projects [3] - It includes both theoretical lectures by experts and practical field studies of significant projects such as the Pang Donglai Angel City Commercial Square and the Xuchang Far East Automotive Transmission Intelligent Manufacturing Industrial Park [3] Group 2: Key Messages from Officials - Chen Jing, a member of the Provincial Development and Reform Commission, acknowledged the achievements in key project construction while analyzing the complex challenges ahead [2] - Emphasis was placed on recognizing the current economic situation and the urgency of advancing project construction to stimulate investment growth across various sectors [2] Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - The need to leverage the current opportunity period for planning major projects that align with national strategies and local advantages was highlighted [2] - A call for inter-departmental collaboration to form a strong collective effort in project construction was made, including the implementation of the "Hundred Million" project initiative [2] Group 4: Ethical and Operational Standards - The importance of maintaining a correct view of achievements and avoiding superficial reporting of project progress was stressed to ensure high-quality development [2] - A commitment to integrity and a clean political environment was emphasized, with a focus on preventing corruption and maintaining ethical standards in project management [2]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Cross-Strait Entrepreneurs Summit will be held on December 16-17 in Nanjing, Jiangsu, focusing on transformation, innovation, and deepening multi-chain cooperation [1] Group 1: Event Details - The summit will gather approximately 800 participants, including members of the Cross-Strait Entrepreneurs Summit Council, entrepreneurs from both sides, and relevant experts and scholars [1] Group 2: Themes and Objectives - The theme of the summit is "Focusing on Transformation and Innovation to Deepen Multi-Chain Cooperation," aiming to leverage the opportunities presented by the 14th Five-Year Plan and assist Taiwanese businesses in integrating into the new development pattern [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates for the third consecutive time with internal disagreements, and officials may hint at a pause later. The market has highly priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut, but Kevin Hassett believes there is still much room for rate cuts [1]. - In December 2025, the Fed's interest - rate meeting and China's Central Economic Work Conference will affect the rhythm of the A - share market in December and lay the foundation for the cross - year market and investment themes in 2026. Before the policies are officially announced, the stock market is expected to be volatile, and after the positive policy signals resonate with the Fed's rate cuts, market risk appetite may increase [9]. - For various futures varieties, different trends and influencing factors are analyzed, and corresponding investment outlooks are provided, such as the long - term upward trend of precious metals and the short - term weakening trend of some energy and chemical products [12][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Varieties - **Treasury Bonds**: Generally rising, the yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond fell to 1.83%. Market liquidity is stable, but there are concerns about global liquidity tightening. The long - term Treasury bond futures price remains weak due to factors such as the suspension of 5 - year fixed deposits in banks and the new fund sales regulations [2][10]. - **Oils and Fats**: Soybean and rapeseed oils were weak at night, while palm oil rose slightly. Palm oil exports slowed down, and production decreased. The expected inventory build - up in November may limit the upside of palm oil. The arrival of imported Australian rapeseed may suppress rapeseed oil prices [3][28]. - **Copper**: The copper price closed lower at night. Concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point. Although smelting output has declined month - on - month, it still shows high growth overall. The supply - demand expectation has turned to a deficit due to supply disruptions [3][18]. 3.2 Daily News Focus 3.2.1 International News - Chinese and US officials met to promote Sino - US economic and trade cooperation. China welcomes more US companies to invest in China, and the US side is willing to play a bridging role [6]. 3.2.2 Domestic News - China successfully launched the Remote Sensing Satellite 47 and the Satellite Internet Low - Earth Orbit Group 15 satellites on December 9 [6]. 3.2.3 Industry News - Multiple provinces have released the 15th Five - Year Plan suggestions, proposing to accelerate the construction of a new real - estate development model and improve the housing supply system [7][8]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Financial - **Stock Index**: The US stock market was mixed. Before the policies of the two important meetings are determined, the stock market is expected to be volatile, and after the policies are clear, market risk appetite may increase [9]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The situation is similar to the key varieties section, with long - term bond futures remaining weak [10][11]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The SC crude oil fell 1.31% at night. The European conflict and the US oil production forecast are the main influencing factors, and the downward trend remains [12]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 1.45% at night. The start - up rate of coal - to - olefin plants increased, and coastal methanol inventories decreased, but the overall inventory is still high. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [13]. - **Rubber**: The natural rubber futures declined. Overseas supply is increasing, and domestic supply is entering the off - season. The demand for all - steel tires is stable. The price is expected to be volatile in a wide range [14]. - **Polyolefins**: The polyolefin futures declined. The downstream demand has reached a high level, and the market sentiment is affected by crude oil and the overall commodity market. It is expected to maintain a low - level volatile trend [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both glass and soda ash futures mainly declined. Their inventories decreased, and the market is cautious. The focus of trading is shifting to the May contract [16]. 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Silver reached a new high, and gold fluctuated slightly. Weak employment data strengthened the expectation of a rate cut in December. The long - term upward trend remains unchanged [17]. - **Copper**: Similar to the key varieties section, the price closed lower at night, with tight concentrate supply and a potential supply - demand deficit [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price closed lower. The concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and the supply - demand difference is not obvious. Attention should be paid to market sentiment [19]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum fell 0.7% at night. Due to the approaching Fed meeting and uncertainty about future rate - cut paths, the price corrected. In the long term, it is supported by supply and demand factors [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply and demand situation is complex. In the short term, the supply is affected by production resumption, and the price is risky to chase up. In the long term, it can be considered from a bullish perspective after a correction [21][22]. 3.3.4 Black - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night - session trading was volatile. Steel mill profits are low, and iron - water production may decrease, which is negative for the demand for coking coal and coke. However, strong policy expectations in December may provide upward momentum [23]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore price slightly declined. Shipping increased slightly, and port inventories increased slightly. Steel mills' profitability is low, and they will continue to purchase on demand. The price is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [24]. - **Steel**: The steel price fluctuated. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, but macro - expectations are positive, so there is some short - term upward momentum, but the medium - term outlook is weak [25]. 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Soybean and rapeseed meal were weak at night. Brazilian soybean sowing progress has accelerated, and US soybean exports are slow. The domestic supply is expected to be sufficient, putting pressure on prices [26][27]. - **Oils and Fats**: Similar to the key varieties section, soybean and rapeseed oils were weak, and palm oil rose slightly. Palm oil inventory build - up and the arrival of Australian rapeseed are the main influencing factors [3][28]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures were volatile and are expected to be weak in the short term. International and domestic factors such as Brazilian sugar production and Chinese sugar supply affect the price [29]. - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures were volatile and are expected to be slightly bullish in the short term. Domestic supply is sufficient, and downstream demand and macro - sentiment support the price, but there is also hedging pressure [30]. 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fluctuated, and the 02 contract rose 1.17%. The demand in mid - December is okay, and the price is expected to be volatile. The 04 contract may decline due to supply - surplus and potential resumption of Red Sea shipping [31].

Group 1 - Multiple factors support the performance of Chinese equities, maintaining a tactical overweight view on A/H shares [1] - The broad deficit is expected to further expand in 2026, with more proactive economic policies anticipated [1] - If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates in December, the current stability and appreciation of the RMB will provide favorable conditions for monetary easing in early 2026 [1] Group 2 - November export growth rebounded more than expected, influenced by base effects and resilient demand [2] - The manufacturing PMI new export orders significantly recovered in November, with all sectors showing improvement [2] - Leading indicators suggest a stable external demand environment, with the electronic supply chain likely to continue supporting growth [2]

2025 年 12 月 10 日 晨会速递 | | 商品市场 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | SHFESHFE 黄金 | 951.54 | -0.75 | | SHFESHFE 燃油 | 2418 | -3.59 | | SHFESHFE 铜 | 91090 | -2.02 | | SHFESHFE 锌 | 23070 | -0.92 | | SHFESHFE 铝 | 21775 | -2.24 | | SHFESHFE 镍 | 117350 | -0.58 | | | 海外市场 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 恒生指数 | 25434.23 | -1.29 | | 国企指数 | 8936.41 | -1.62 | | 道琼斯 | 47560.29 | -0.38 | | 标普 500 | 6840.51 | -0.09 | | 纳斯达克 | 23576.49 | 0.13 | | 德国 DAX | 24153.30 | 0.45 | | 法国 CAC | 8052.51 | -0.69 | | 日经 225 ...