投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 1 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 2604 | 强势 | 强势 | 上涨 | 长线看强 | 去美元化推升金价 | | 铜 2603 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 盘面做多氛围回暖 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：强势 参考观点：长线看强 核心逻辑：上周金价持续上涨，纽约金由 4600 美元上涨逼近 5000 美元关口。周中虽然美欧地缘冲 突有所缓和，金价 ...

地缘波折再起，金银共创新高 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询资格证号：Z0021675 目录 第一章 综合分析及交易策略 2 | | | 第三章 贵金属基本面数据追踪 13 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 227/82/4 地缘波折再起，金银共创新高 ◼【综合分析】 宏观面：上周金银市场以地缘风险为主线进行交易，核心焦点在于格陵兰岛争端、美欧贸易关系。 周初，特朗普政府威胁对欧洲八国加征关税以施压格陵兰岛问题，并提及对法国葡萄酒征收200%关税，引发市场对美欧贸易战升级以及极端情 况下发生武力冲突的担忧，避险情绪急剧升温，美国出现股债汇三杀的局面，欧洲股市也受到负向冲击。为应对美国的施压，欧洲丹麦、瑞典等 养老基金宣布抛售美债资产，被市场解读为"美元资产武器化"，且波兰央行宣布购金150吨，进一步强化了去美元化叙事，叠加日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, international precious metal futures prices continued to rise, with gold and silver prices hitting new all - time highs. The COMEX gold futures main contract approached the $5,000/ounce mark, and the COMEX silver futures main contract reached a record high of $103/ounce. Platinum and palladium futures prices also followed the upward trend, especially platinum, with the NYMEX platinum futures price surging on Thursday and Friday last week, with a weekly increase of 18.37% [2][5]. - Geopolitical tensions have increased the demand for safe - haven assets, and countries' accelerated "de - dollarization" process and large - scale gold purchases are the main reasons for the continuous record - breaking of precious metal prices. Silver, with higher volatility, has risen by 40% in less than a month this year, and the COMEX gold - to - silver ratio has dropped to 48, a 50 - year low. Given the current volatile geopolitical situation, precious metal prices are expected to remain strong in the short term. The platinum/gold and palladium/gold ratios are still in the low - range, and the platinum/silver and palladium/silver ratios are at historical lows. The catch - up market of platinum and palladium is worth attention [2][8]. - The US is expected to obtain "sovereignty" over the area of the US military base on Greenland, and the US - EU relationship is accelerating the "decoupling". The Fed will hold an interest - rate meeting on January 27 - 28, and the market generally expects the interest rate to remain at 3.50% - 3.75%. Due to the better - than - expected US employment and inflation data recently, the Fed is expected to implement a "dovish pause" or imply a loose tendency in the statement [2][6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 1,115.64 | 83.32 | 8.07 | 206,580 | 178,255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 1,110.35 | 79.26 | 7.69 | 54,268 | 208,322 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 4,983.10 | 382.00 | 8.30 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 24,965 | 2,202 | 9.67 | 522,479 | 634,627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 24,988 | 2,347 | 10.37 | 436,090 | 3,292,636 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 103.26 | 13.32 | 14.80 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | | GFEX Platinum | 685.90 | 75.85 | 12.43 | 25,095 | 11,348 | Yuan/gram | | Platinum 9995 | 681.50 | 79.04 | 13.12 | - | - | Yuan/gram | | NYMEX Platinum | 2,773.20 | 79.04 | 18.37 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | | GFEX Palladium | 497.95 | 79.04 | 6.09 | 11,027 | 11,348 | Yuan/gram | | NYMEX Palladium | 2,047.00 | 79.04 | 10.86 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | [3] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Geopolitical events include the US seeking "sovereignty" over the US military base area in Greenland, threatening to retaliate against European countries, and the US dispatching troops to Iran and imposing a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran. The selection of the new Fed chairman is in the final stage, and the Polish central bank has approved a plan to buy 150 tons of gold, which will support the gold price [6]. - The Fed's interest - rate meeting is expected to maintain the 3.50% - 3.75% interest rate, and the market expects at least two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year. Attention should be paid to the monetary policy clues from the upcoming Fed meeting [8]. 3.3 Important Data Information - The US GDP in the third quarter of 2025 had a final annualized quarter - on - quarter growth of 4.4%, higher than the initial value of 4.3%, the fastest growth rate in nearly two years [9]. - The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the core PCE price index in November, rose 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations [9]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 200,000, lower than the expected 210,000. The average number of applicants based on the four - week moving average was 201,500, the lowest since January 13, 2024. The number of continued jobless claims, with a one - week lag, slightly decreased to 1.85 million, a decrease of 26,000 from the previous week [9]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in January was 51.9, slightly higher than the previous value of 51.8; the preliminary value of the service PMI remained flat at 52.5, and the preliminary value of the composite PMI slightly rose to 52.8. All three data were slightly lower than expectations [9]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in January slightly rebounded to 49.4, still in the contraction range; the preliminary value of the service PMI dropped to 51.9, lower than expectations. The manufacturing and service PMIs in Germany rebounded more than expected. The French manufacturing PMI rose to a nearly four - year high of 51, but the service PMI sharply slowed down to 47.9 [9]. - The Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.75% and raised the economic growth and inflation expectations for the 2026 fiscal year. The Bank of Japan governor said that it will closely monitor the impact of the weakening yen and will buy government bonds to stabilize the market if the long - term bond interest rate rises abnormally [10]. 3.4 Related Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, the inventory changes of COMEX, LBMA, Shanghai Futures Exchange, and Shanghai Gold Exchange gold and silver, the non - commercial net long positions of COMEX gold and silver, the holdings of SPDR gold and SLV silver, the price differences between domestic and foreign gold and silver, the COMEX gold - to - silver ratio, the US inflation expectations, the relationships between gold price and various factors such as the US dollar, copper price, VIX index, crude oil price, US 10 - year Treasury bond yield, US real interest rate, Fed's balance - sheet size, US government debt scale, copper - to - gold ratio, and the NYMEX platinum and palladium inventory and ratio, as well as the non - commercial net positions of platinum and palladium futures and options [14][15][21][29][36][39][41]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the escalating tensions between the US and China, with both countries revealing their strategies in a high-stakes economic confrontation [1][7] - The US is attempting to isolate China through trade agreements that include "poison pill clauses," which aim to restrict China's trade partnerships and impose severe penalties for non-compliance [2][6] - The US is facing a significant debt crisis, with a debt of $38.5 trillion, leading to reliance on dollar printing to manage its financial issues, which is increasingly ineffective against China's stable economic strategies [3][5] Group 2 - China is responding to external pressures by strengthening its internal economy, focusing on its vast domestic market and industrial capabilities to mitigate the impact of external shocks [4][6] - The country is actively reducing its holdings of US debt and increasing its gold reserves, while also expanding its cross-border payment systems to bypass US-controlled financial channels [5][6] - China is investing in key industries such as artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing, aiming for self-sufficiency and resilience against external technological pressures [6][7] Group 3 - The article emphasizes that China's exports, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and solar products, are increasingly directed towards emerging markets in Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia, indicating a shift in global trade dynamics [7] - The ongoing US-China rivalry is characterized by a struggle for long-term economic stability and resource control, with both nations adapting their strategies in response to each other's moves [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term due to increased domestic conflicts over illegal immigration in the US [11][12]. - US stocks are expected to maintain high - level volatility during the earnings season, with increased volatility [16][17]. - Precious metals are likely to see increased short - term volatility, and investors should be aware of the risk of a pullback after a continuous sharp rise [20]. - The bond market is experiencing a short - term rebound, and it is more cost - effective to short after the upward momentum fades [21][22]. - The stock index long - position strategy should be continued [23][24]. - Coking coal is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term as supply is at a high level and downstream restocking has ended [25][26]. - Steel prices are expected to be volatile before the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to hedge inventory at high prices if there is a price rebound [31]. - Palm oil is likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short - term, and the price of soybean oil is expected to be supported before the US biofuel policy is released [35]. - The outlook for soybean meal exports is not optimistic, and the 5 - month contract is likely to be weak if there are no major abnormalities in South American production [37][38]. - The domestic sugar market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term due to seasonal supply pressure and limited demand [42]. - Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be adjusted in a volatile manner before the Spring Festival, with long - term bullish views unchanged [47]. - Copper prices are likely to be volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for opportunities to go long at low prices in the medium - term [51]. - Lead prices are expected to be in low - level volatility, and it is recommended to wait and see both unilaterally and in arbitrage [53][54]. - Zinc prices are expected to remain in high - level volatility, and it is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, pay attention to long - position opportunities in the far - month contracts for arbitrage, and wait and see in the domestic - foreign arbitrage [57]. - Lithium carbonate prices are likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and a bullish strategy is recommended with attention to position control and risk management [60][61]. - Tin prices are expected to be in wide - range volatility in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of supply recovery expectations and consumption recovery [65]. - Nickel prices are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low prices [66][67]. - EU carbon prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [68][69]. - Oil prices are expected to be supported by short - term geopolitical conflicts and supply disruptions [71][72]. - The bottle - chip market is expected to see a mild recovery in processing fees around the Spring Festival [76]. - The container shipping index is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term [78]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Europe is estimated to need $1 trillion to restructure its defense industry. The shooting of a US citizen by ICE has intensified domestic conflicts over illegal immigration, causing the dollar index to weaken. The Trump administration is expected to maintain a tough stance on illegal immigration, and market volatility will remain high. The dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term [9][11][12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in the US in January was 56.4, reaching a five - month high. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in January was 51.9. The US economy shows resilience, and the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in the short - term. The market is worried about the Fed's independence, and US stocks are expected to maintain high - level volatility during the earnings season [13][14][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US is expected to obtain "sovereignty" over the area where the US military base on Greenland is located. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in January was 51.9. The New York Federal Reserve Bank conducted a "rate check" on the US dollar/yen exchange rate. Precious metals continued to rise strongly on Friday, reaching a new high. The market is trading on the safe - haven and de - dollarization needs caused by the tense situation between the US and Europe. The sharp rise of the yen and the fall of the dollar after the US and Japan jointly signaled to intervene in the foreign exchange market boosted the precious metals. However, the short - term market is dominated by sentiment and funds, and the risk is increasing. Precious metals are likely to see increased short - term volatility, and investors should be aware of the risk of a pullback [18][19][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 125 billion yuan, with a net investment of 38.3 billion yuan. The bond market continued to strengthen, mainly due to the alleviation of previous concerns. However, there are still long - term negative factors, and it is more cost - effective to short after the upward momentum fades [21][22]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The CSRC issued a guidance on the performance comparison benchmark for public funds. Due to strong bullish expectations, funds flowed into small - cap stocks, causing market differentiation. The regulatory authorities are expected to take stricter and more precise measures to limit excessive speculation, and the market is likely to remain in high - level volatility. It is recommended to continue to hold the long - position strategy for the stock index [23][24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Changzhi market remained stable. The supply in some areas increased slightly, while the downstream restocking ended, and the market sentiment declined. Coking coal is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [25][26]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The global crude steel output in 2025 was 1.849 billion tons. In mid - January 2026, the daily output of key steel enterprises decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. Before the Spring Festival, steel prices are expected to be volatile and may rebound slightly. It is recommended to hedge inventory at high prices if there is a price rebound [27][29][31]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The EU plans to gradually phase out soybean biofuels. The establishment of the Southeast Asian Sustainable Aviation Fuel Council. The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills increased, and the estimated volume for the next week is higher. The palm oil market is supported by inventory reduction and Ramadan expectations, and the price of soybean oil is expected to be supported before the US biofuel policy is released [32][34][35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The US weekly soybean export sales reached the highest level of the year. The domestic oil mill soybean crushing volume increased, and it is expected to remain high. The outlook for soybean meal exports is not optimistic, and the 5 - month contract is likely to be weak if there are no major abnormalities in South American production [36][37][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The amount of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports increased. The sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil decreased in the second half of December. The domestic sugar market is under seasonal supply pressure, and the demand is limited. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term [39][41][42]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The import of Indian cotton yarn decreased, while the import of polyester - cotton blended yarn increased. The EU's clothing import rebounded in November 2025, and the import from China increased. The US cotton export signing reached a new high, but the export progress is still behind. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be adjusted in a volatile manner before the Spring Festival, with long - term bullish views unchanged [43][44][47]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Chilean contractor protests blocked access to mines. Tibet Julong Copper's second - phase project was put into operation. The Chilean Mining Association warned that it will take several years for copper supply to increase. The short - term macro factors support copper prices, but the fundamental factors may suppress price increases. Copper prices are likely to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for opportunities to go long at low prices in the medium - term [48][50][51]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was at a discount. The production of primary lead was stable, the profit of secondary lead refineries narrowed, and the consumption of lead batteries was weak. The social inventory increased, and lead prices are expected to be in low - level volatility. It is recommended to wait and see both unilaterally and in arbitrage [52][53][54]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - A gold mine in Mexico was temporarily shut down. The LME zinc spread was at a discount, and MMG's zinc ore output in the fourth quarter of 2025 increased. The zinc concentrate port inventory increased, the smelting profit improved slightly, and the demand was affected by multiple factors. Zinc prices are expected to remain in high - level volatility. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, pay attention to long - position opportunities in the far - month contracts for arbitrage, and wait and see in the domestic - foreign arbitrage [55][56][57]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The retail and wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in the first 18 days of January 2026 decreased year - on - year. Lithium carbonate prices rose sharply last week. The demand is strong, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to take a bullish strategy with attention to position control and risk management [58][60][61]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The first domestic satellite computing power module was launched. The LME tin spread was at a discount, and the inventory increased. The import of tin concentrate in December increased year - on - year. The supply is expected to increase in 2026, but there are uncertainties. The demand is weak, and tin prices are expected to be in wide - range volatility in the short - term [62][63][65]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The port logistics of the Indonesian Qing Shan Industrial Park was suspected of monopoly. The nickel ore production quota in Indonesia is expected to be adjusted, and the global primary nickel gap is expected to be more than 100,000 metric tons. The raw material price rose, and the demand for nickel salt increased. Nickel prices are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low prices [66][67]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The closing price of the EUA main contract decreased. The EU carbon price remained high and volatile last week. The CoT data helped boost the market. The carbon price is expected to be strong in the short - term [68][69]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The production of a Kazakhstani oil field was delayed due to a power failure and export problems. The number of US oil rigs increased. The oil price rose on Friday, supported by the risk of supply disruptions and the increase in diesel cracking spreads [70][71][72]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle - chip factories continued to rise. The polyester raw material price rose strongly, and the bottle - chip factory quotation increased. The market trading atmosphere was fair, and the downstream was cautious. The industry operating rate decreased, and the inventory pressure was transferred smoothly. The processing fee is expected to recover mildly around the Spring Festival [73][75][76]. 3.2.16 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Wildfires and rough seas restricted the operation of some ports in Chile. The short - term market is weak, and the European - line futures are expected to be weakly volatile. Attention should be paid to whether the index will be higher due to container dumping and late ship departures [77][78].

Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai rose over 2% to 102,830 yuan, while London copper increased to approximately 13,134 USD [4][17] - The macroeconomic environment is neutral, with the US threatening to cut dollar supplies to Iraq, leading to a decline in the dollar to 97, which boosted copper prices [4][17] - Global copper inventories increased to 1.015 million tons, with domestic copper stocks rising by about 14,400 tons to 330,000 tons [4][17] - Short-term copper prices are expected to remain high due to tight supply expectations, but high inventory levels may limit price increases [4][17] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel and stainless steel market is experiencing short-term high-level fluctuations, influenced by tight policy expectations from Indonesia [18][19] - The supply of nickel from the Philippines is hindered by weather conditions, while Indonesian wet method nickel is relatively abundant [18][19] - Short-term nickel and stainless steel prices are expected to remain high until Indonesian policies are relaxed [18][19] Group 3: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is seeing weak fluctuations in spot prices, with futures prices rebounding slightly after a decline [20][21] - The supply side is affected by high-cost producers adjusting production, while the production capacity of alumina remains high at 96.55 million tons [20][21] - The expected operational range for alumina futures is between 2,500 and 2,800 yuan per ton, with a bearish outlook on price rebounds [20][21] Group 4: Zinc Market - Zinc prices showed strong fluctuations, supported by improved macroeconomic sentiment and easing trade tensions between the US and Europe [23][24] - The overall supply remains limited despite some production plans being maintained, while demand from the black metal sector is weak [23][24] - The operational range for zinc futures is expected to be between 24,000 and 25,000 yuan per ton [23][24] Group 5: Lead Market - Lead prices are experiencing strong fluctuations, with supply-demand imbalances persisting due to limited domestic ore and insufficient imports [24][25] - The operational range for lead futures is expected to be between 16,800 and 17,800 yuan per ton [24][25] Group 6: Precious Metals - Precious metals are steadily rising, driven by geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets [27][28] - The operational ranges for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures are set at 1,120-1,170 yuan per gram, 25,500-27,500 yuan per kilogram, 690-750 yuan per gram, and 510-550 yuan per gram, respectively [27][28]

2026年伊始，全球金融市场见证了一项历史性纪录的诞生。现货黄金首次突破5000美元/盎司，最高涨 至5031美元/盎司。截至发稿，现报5028.25美元/盎司，日内涨幅达0.8%。现货白银盘初再创新高，现报 104.76美元/盎司，涨幅超1%。 公开信息显示，包括顶级投资顾问、多家养老基金及行业机构在内的市场参与者普遍认为，美国资产的 风险溢价正在抬升，这一信号意味着投资者或正逐步从这一全球最大金融市场撤出资金。近期，瑞典养 老基金Alecta、丹麦养老基金AkademikerPension确认，已出售或正在出售所持的美国国债。 展望后市，黄金长期上涨趋势获机构普遍看好。 高盛在最新报告中，将黄金今年底目标价从每盎司4900美元上调至5400美元，理由是私人部门投资者和 中央银行对黄金的需求不断增长。高盛分析师预计，各国央行今年每月将购买60吨黄金，同时随着美联 储降息，黄金ETF的持有量也将增加。各国央行已开始通过传统的ETF，与私人部门投资者争夺有限的 黄金。 | < W | 伦敦金现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUS ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant milestone in the financial market with spot gold prices surpassing $5000 per ounce for the first time, reaching a peak of $5031 per ounce, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and a declining US dollar [2][4]. Group 1: Gold and Silver Market Performance - Spot gold has reached $5028.25 per ounce with a daily increase of 0.8%, while spot silver has also hit a new high at $104.76 per ounce, showing a rise of over 1% [2]. - In the past week, the US dollar index experienced its worst performance since June 2025, dropping nearly 2%, while gold recorded its best weekly performance in nearly six years with an increase of 8.4%, and silver surged by 14.4% [3][4]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The decline of the US dollar is attributed to rising political risk concerns regarding American assets, particularly following the Greenland crisis, prompting discussions in Germany about repatriating gold reserves stored in the US [4][5]. - European institutional investors are increasingly wary of US assets, leading to a "passive de-risking" process, with significant capital movements away from the US market [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end gold price target from $4900 to $5400 per ounce, citing increasing demand from private investors and central banks [6]. - Analysts predict that gold prices may rise further in 2026 due to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, instability in the US dollar, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [6][7]. - UBS maintains a $5000 per ounce annual target for gold, suggesting that prices could reach $5400 if geopolitical conflicts escalate [8].

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 周四，美国至 1 月 17 日当周初请失业金人数 20 万人，预 期 21 万人，前值由 19.8 万人修正为 19.9 万人。美国第三季度 实际 GDP 年化季率终值 4.4%，预期 4.30%，前值 4.30%。美 国第三季度实际个人消费支出季率终值 3.5%，前值 3.5%。美 国第三季度核心 PCE 物价指数年化季率终值 2.9%，预期 2.9% ，前值 2.90% 。美国 11 月核心 PCE 物价指数月率 0.2%，预期 0.20%。美国 11 月个人支出月率 0.5%，预期 0.50%。 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►贵金属：地缘扰动叠加央行购金，贵金属价格持续 突破历史新高 本周 COMEX 黄金上涨 8.30%至 4,983.10 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银上涨 14.80%至 103.26 美元/盎司。SHFE 黄金上 涨 8.07% 至 1,115.64 元 / 克 ，SHFE 白银上涨 11.04% 至 24,965.00 元/千克。 本周金银比下跌 5.66%至 48.26。本周 SPDR 黄金 ETF 持 仓增加 27,574.43 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，短期内，需要重点关注的事件有：1)"购买"格陵兰岛，目前特朗普称不再考虑对欧洲八国额外加征关税，风险暂时 缓解但需持续关注。2)最高法院对特朗普关税的裁决，由于从1月21日起法院进入约四周的"中期休庭"(intervening recess)，因此最早的裁决日期可能要等 到2月20日。3)Lisa Cook最终是否会被撤职美联储理事(1月21日已完成口头辩论)，以及鲍威尔刑事调查的动向。4)新主席提名，贝森特1月20日称"最早下 周(1月26日-2月1日)即可宣布"。 基准情形下，维持年度判断：即对美股整体积极，板块上周期追赶科技，还可关注小盘和金融，美元不看持续大跌，长债有交易性机会。但如果事态发展 继续超出预期的话，建议：1)避险资产，如黄金等;2)科技股，短期会有剧烈动荡，但其独立于政策波动的基本面逻辑，可以波动后逢低再买入;3)资源 品，属于当前贸易摩擦和地缘局势的"焦点"，反而会强化其投资价值;4)规避美债，美联储独立性的破坏、财政可持续性担忧，以及"去美元化"叙事都会带 来压力。 中金主要观点如下： 2026年伊始，特朗普的诸多举措和言论再度超预期，引发市场大幅 ...