AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 美联储还表示，部分额外成本是由于原材料价格上涨、劳动力成本上升以及施工进度变化导致租赁空间 使用时间延长所致。而鲍威尔指出，2021年提交给国家首都规划委员会的规划文件中的一些升级内容后 来被取消，但美联储无需重新提交文件，因为这些变更并不"重大"，而是为了简化施工、减少进一步延 误和成本增加的可能性。 自特朗普第二任期开始以来，他一直试图让美联储降低利率，但美联储因特朗普的关税政策恐再度引发 通胀而不愿配合。随着美联储拒绝让步，特朗普曾表示想要解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，但最高法院暗示解 雇鲍威尔可能违宪，华尔街投资者也反对这一想法。 特朗普政府似乎抓住了美联储大楼翻新一事，试图找到解雇鲍威尔的借口。上周，当被问及是否会解雇 鲍威尔时，特朗普表示，除非涉及欺诈，否则可能性极小。 音频由扣子空间生成 北京时间周二20:30，美联储主席鲍威尔将出席一场跟大型银行资本框架综合审查相关的监管会议，并 且发表开幕词。 他的讲话料将聚焦于巴塞尔协议III最终方案、压力测试、大型银行的资本附加以及杠杆要求等监管相关 的话题。但是，由于近期特朗普以及共和党议员频繁就美联储总部翻新工程超支一事 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing pressure from President Donald Trump on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, including potential threats of dismissal, represents an unprecedented challenge to the independence of the Federal Reserve, which is crucial for effective economic governance in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is fundamental for fulfilling its dual mandate of maximizing employment and stabilizing prices, ensuring that monetary policy decisions are based on economic data rather than short-term political considerations [1][3] - Trump's actions directly challenge this principle by publicly demanding interest rate cuts and attempting to use cost overruns from the Fed's headquarters renovation as grounds for dismissal, which could undermine the Fed's credibility [1][2] Group 2: Legal Implications - If Trump were to dismiss Powell, it would likely lead to an unprecedented legal battle centered around the interpretation of "just cause" as outlined in Section 10 of the Federal Reserve Act, which aims to prevent politically motivated dismissals [2] - Legal experts suggest that proving "inefficiency, neglect of duty, or malfeasance" requires clear evidence and strict legal procedures, making it difficult to justify a dismissal based on renovation cost overruns [2] Group 3: Market Reactions - Financial markets have reacted to the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's independence, evidenced by declines in stock indices, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and a weakening dollar, reflecting investor concerns over potential policy chaos [2][3] Group 4: Long-term Economic Impact - A compromised Federal Reserve could lead to questions about its ability to control inflation, with political interference potentially resulting in overly accommodative monetary policy and the risk of runaway inflation [3] - The scenario of a politically influenced Fed could hinder effective responses to economic cycles, damaging the long-term health of the U.S. economy and eroding global investor confidence, which may lead to capital outflows and a weakened dollar [3] Group 5: Future of Federal Reserve Leadership - Even if Powell were dismissed, Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson would temporarily assume the role, but the nomination and confirmation of a new chairman would be fraught with political maneuvering [3] - The decision-making power regarding interest rates lies with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), not solely with the chairman, meaning that even a Trump-appointed chairman may struggle to achieve immediate policy goals [3] Group 6: Conclusion - The potential dismissal of Powell is not merely a personnel change but a significant test of the resilience of the U.S. constitutional system, the independence of the judiciary, and the Federal Reserve's role as an economic stabilizer [4][5] - This political and legal turmoil will serve as a critical case study on how American democracy responds to populist challenges, influencing the future trajectory of U.S. economic policy and the global financial landscape [5]

若跌破该位置，中期涨势将受挫，银价或下探5月15日录得的两个月低点31.65美元附近区域。 现货白银在亚洲时段周一（7月21日）震荡微涨，目前交投于每盎司 38.29美元附近，延续前一交易日微 跌后的盘整态势。 日线技术分析显示，这一贵金属在上升通道内持续上行，彰显出持久的看涨倾向。 如果向上发展，银价可能指向历史高点 39.11美元附近，如果进一步突破，后市有望试探上升通道上沿 的心理关口 41.50 美元。 而向下发展的话白银价格可能测试 9 日均线 的 37.79 美元即时支撑，如果跌破该位置，可能促使银价最 终测试 50 日均线的 35.55 美元。 周一(7月21日)亚洲时段，现货白银短线震荡微涨，处于38.30一线上方，美元指数延续弱势格局，为银 价提供支撑，欧市盘中，现货白银走势维持上行，最高触及38.47美元/盎司，最低下探38.06美元/盎 司。目前来看，银价正回落至38.39美元/盎司水平。晚间聚焦美国6月谘商会领先指标月率。 【要闻聚焦】 美元指数DXY周一亚盘时段走势低迷，主要受美国关税政策及美联储独立性疑虑拖累。美国商务部长 卢特尼克周日向美国哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）新闻明确表示， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trade policy uncertainty is rising in the short - term, with the dollar index expected to decline; the stock market is in a capital - driven market with abundant liquidity, and the bond market will remain volatile until substantial bullish factors such as interest rate cuts materialize [15][18][21]. - In the commodity market, different products have different trends. For example, power coal prices are expected to remain high in the short - term but face seasonal pressure after August; the price of some metals and energy - chemical products is affected by supply - demand, policies, and other factors [3][41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Treasury Secretary said trade negotiations are progressing steadily. Gold prices have risen strongly, and the short - term trend is volatile, facing a directional choice [11][12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index) - The US Republican accused the Fed Chairman of perjury, and the White House said Trump may issue more tariff letters before August 1. The dollar index is expected to decline in the short - term [13][15][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The 7 - month LPR remained unchanged, and the State Council announced the "Housing Rental Regulations". It is recommended to allocate various stock indexes evenly [17][18][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project started, and the central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation. Before interest rate cuts and other substantial bullish factors, the bond market will remain volatile. It is recommended to sell long positions when the futures rebound and continue to allocate medium - term long positions at low prices [20][21]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is approaching 1 million tons, and the excellent rate of US soybeans has slightly decreased. The short - term futures price is expected to be volatile [22][23]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased from July 1 - 20, while the production increased. It is not recommended to over - short palm oil. Wait for the price to fall and then consider long positions [24][25][28]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The import of syrup and premixed powder decreased in June, and the net short position of ICE raw sugar decreased. The short - term Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of 5900 [29][30][32]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The daily output of Indonesia's Dexin Steel exceeded 20,000 tons, and the investment in water conservancy construction increased in the first half of the year. Steel prices are strong in the short - term, but risks should be vigilant after August [33][34][36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The export of corn starch decreased significantly in June. Starch enterprises are expected to continue to operate at a loss or with low profits, and the opening rate is expected to remain low [37]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Wuhai is strong. The short - term coking coal futures price is expected to be volatile, waiting for changes in the supply side [38][39]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The auction volume of imported corn decreased on July 22. It is recommended to hold a small number of short positions in new - crop corn and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [40]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The social electricity consumption increased by 5.4% in June. The steam coal price is expected to remain high in the short - term, but seasonal pressure should be noted after August [41][42]. 3.2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The investment in water conservancy construction increased in the first half of the year. The long - term upward pressure on iron ore prices is limited, and short - term fluctuations may intensify [43][44]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The export of Chinese photovoltaic modules decreased in June. It is recommended to go long at low prices, and the price is expected to run at a low level within the price limit [45][46][47]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The export of industrial silicon increased in June. The short - term industrial silicon is expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang [48][49]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The import of copper ore, scrap copper, and refined copper changed in June. The copper price is expected to be volatile and strong, and it is recommended to wait and see [50][52][54]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Lifezone released a feasibility study report on its nickel project. The short - term nickel price may be strong, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [55][56][57]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The import of lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene decreased in June, and Yichun Yinli will conduct maintenance. It is recommended to stop profiting from long positions and consider reverse arbitrage [58][60][62]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was at a discount on July 18, and the export of lead - acid batteries decreased in June. It is recommended to buy at low prices in the short - term [63][64][65]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The export of die - cast zinc alloy and galvanized sheets increased, and the import of zinc concentrate increased in the first half of the year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in the near - month spread [66][67][69]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The FOB price of Middle - East frozen LPG decreased. The fundamentals are weak, and there is insufficient upward driving force [70][71][72]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Turkey will terminate the Iraq oil pipeline agreement in July 2026. The short - term crude oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range [73][74]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased locally on July 21. It is difficult for the caustic soda price to continue rising [75][77][78]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp increased. The upward space of the pulp price is limited due to unchanged supply - demand [79][80]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder increased. The PVC price may have limited upward movement due to inventory accumulation [81]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries decreased. It is recommended to wait and see as the asphalt price needs oil price as a driving force [82][83]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The PX price increased slightly on July 21. The short - term PX price is expected to be volatile and strong [84]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The spot basis of PTA decreased significantly. The PTA price may be strong in the short - term following the domestic commodity market [85][86]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The export of urea increased in June. The urea price may be slightly strong, oscillating around 1700 [87][88]. 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The port inventory of styrene increased. The short - term styrene price is affected by macro factors, and the pure benzene price is expected to oscillate and repair [89][90]. 3.2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle chip factories increased slightly. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to expand the processing fee of bottle chips by going long at low prices [90][91]. 3.2.28 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers decreased. It is risky to short - sell in the short - term, and wait for policy guidance [92][93]. 3.2.29 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei increased on July 21. It is recommended to consider the cross - variety arbitrage strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [94].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unprecedented power struggle between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, centered around the implications of interest rate cuts on U.S. debt and the potential threat to the dollar's dominance [1][10]. Group 1: Economic Implications - U.S. national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with a 1% decrease in interest rates potentially saving $360 billion annually in interest payments [1]. - Trump aims for a 3% reduction in interest rates, which could lead to annual savings of up to $1 trillion [1]. - Powell warns that significant rate cuts to manage debt could lead to a repeat of the bank failures seen in 2023, indicating a severe risk to financial stability [1][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The climax of the confrontation occurred in July when news of Trump allegedly drafting a letter to dismiss Powell caused significant market turmoil, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 1.33% and the dollar falling 120 points [3]. - Following Trump's unexpected statement that it was "unlikely" he would fire Powell, markets experienced a V-shaped recovery, highlighting the volatility and sensitivity of financial markets to political developments [3]. Group 3: Internal Fed Dynamics - The power struggle has also affected the Federal Reserve internally, with dovish members like Waller advocating for a rate cut due to perceived risks in the job market, while hawkish members like Williams warn against such actions [7]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data rebounded to 2.7%, complicating the decision-making process regarding interest rates [7]. Group 4: Leadership Changes - Trump is reportedly pursuing a "leadership change" at the Fed, with potential candidates for the new chair including economic advisor Kevin Hassett, current board member Chris Waller, former board member Kevin Warsh, and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin [8]. - If a new chair is appointed, Powell's influence over policy decisions could be significantly diminished, leading to concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [8].

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices collectively rose, with the Dow Jones up 0.33%, Nasdaq up 0.85%, and S&P 500 up 0.56% [1] - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed performance, with Douyu, NIO, and Pony.ai rising over 5%, while New Oxygen and New Oriental fell over 4% and 3% respectively [1] Cryptocurrency Insights - Cryptocurrency-related stocks surged, with Trump Media & Technology Group rising over 6% after announcing a total Bitcoin reserve purchase of $2 billion [1] - Ethereum's price increased by 26% last week, driven by the passage of key legislation and large investors acquiring over 500,000 ETH [2] Stock Market Forecast - Goldman Sachs predicts a continued bullish trend for U.S. stocks, estimating a 10% increase in the S&P 500 index over the next 12 months, reaching 6,900 points [3] Technology Sector Dynamics - The performance of the "Seven Giants" in the tech sector is diverging, with some companies advancing significantly due to AI trends while others lag behind [4] - Nvidia's stock continues to rise, with CEO Jensen Huang cashing out approximately $12.94 million from stock sales, reflecting strong market enthusiasm for AI capabilities [5] Tesla's Market Reception - Tesla's first showroom in India opened to disappointment among fans, attributed to previous order cancellations and perceived poor service [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the foreign exchange (FX) market outlook, particularly focusing on the USD, EUR, JPY, and CAD, as well as macroeconomic factors influencing these currencies [1][10][75]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **USD Outlook**: - A weaker USD is expected in H2 2025, with EURUSD projected to rise towards 1.20+ due to cyclical data weakness in the US [1][10]. - The USD is anticipated to recover in 2026, with EURUSD potentially falling back to 1.12 by year-end 2026 [1][10]. - The USD topping out aligns with previous forecasts, but skepticism remains regarding the extent of the reversal due to trade conflicts and tariffs [7][10]. 2. **Labor Market Concerns**: - Weakness in the labor market is anticipated in Q3, driven by government layoffs and a potential spike in job cut announcements [12][18]. - Challenger Job cut announcements are highlighted as a leading indicator for labor market claims, suggesting elevated levels of layoffs [12][18]. 3. **Macroeconomic Environment**: - The macroeconomic landscape is characterized by uncertainty, with a wider range of potential economic outcomes than in recent years [9][10]. - The Fed's dovish expectations are priced in, but notable weakness in labor data is required for further cuts [11][34]. 4. **Global Growth Projections**: - Global growth is expected to slow to 2.4% in 2025, with advanced activity in H1 leading to payback in H2 [27][30]. - EU fiscal spending is projected to improve growth prospects, but the impact is not expected until 2027 [76][80]. 5. **Political Factors**: - Political pressure on the Fed Chair could weigh on the USD, with discussions around potential changes in leadership [42][44]. - The upcoming elections and economic performance are likely to influence policy decisions and market sentiment [84][85]. 6. **Tariff and Trade Dynamics**: - Progress on tariffs is expected, which could alleviate uncertainty and support the USD [90]. - The effective tariff rate is likely to remain elevated at around 15%, impacting corporate decision-making [90]. 7. **De-dollarization Narrative**: - The narrative around de-dollarization is viewed as overhyped, with no significant evidence of a pivot away from US fixed income [93][94]. - Foreign demand for US corporate debt has improved, countering concerns about a shift to EUR assets [94][99]. Additional Important Insights - **Inflation and Fed Policy**: - Inflation risks are two-sided, but progress in normalizing services inflation may allow the Fed to cut rates again [36][41]. - The first Fed cut in a cutting cycle typically coincides with a USD low, suggesting a similar dynamic may occur this time [71]. - **Currency Specific Forecasts**: - **EUR**: Expected to strengthen in the short term, with a forecast of EURUSD at 1.20 in 0-3 months [111]. - **JPY**: Anticipated to face near-term headwinds, with forecasts suggesting USDJPY could peak around 150 before declining [116][119]. - **CAD**: Forecasted to remain under pressure due to economic headwinds, with USDCAD expected at 1.35 in the near term [131]. - **Market Sentiment**: - The market is currently pricing in a dovish Fed, but the actual impact of labor market data will be crucial for future movements [49][106]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the foreign exchange market outlook and the macroeconomic factors influencing currency movements.

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlights a fundamental disagreement over monetary policy, with Trump frequently criticizing Powell for not implementing aggressive interest rate cuts [5][10]. Group 1: Conflict Dynamics - Trump has publicly criticized Powell over ten times since April, labeling him with derogatory terms and expressing dissatisfaction with the Fed's monetary policy decisions [2][5]. - The relationship between Trump and Powell has deteriorated since Powell's refusal to comply with the White House's requests for rapid interest rate cuts, which has led to Trump's perception of the Fed's independence as a form of "disobedience" [5][6]. Group 2: Legal and Institutional Challenges - Although Trump has considered removing Powell, legal ambiguities exist regarding the president's authority to dismiss the Fed Chairman, as recent Supreme Court rulings suggest that Fed governors enjoy special protections from presidential dismissal [7][10]. - Powell's term as Chairman is set to last until May 2026, but the White House continues to exert pressure on him despite the legal challenges [8][10]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Context - Trump's threats to dismiss Powell have historically led to significant volatility in U.S. financial markets, with the dollar index reportedly down approximately 10% this year [10]. - Major financial institutions, including JPMorgan and Citigroup, have publicly emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence for market confidence, warning that undermining this independence could destabilize the financial system [10][11]. - The current economic landscape in the U.S. is characterized by high tariffs, high interest rates, high debt, and low growth, indicating that even if the Fed were to lower rates, it would not resolve the underlying structural issues facing the economy [10][11].

历史上一个特别清晰的教训是，当美联储被迫为政府赤字融资时——例如通过将利率维持在过低水平， 其结果必然是更高的通胀和经济损害。 我们曾多次看到这种情况，包括在美国。在第二次世界大战期间及战后数年，美联储受到美国财政部的 压力，不得不限制利率以帮助为战争债务融资。这项政策导致在1940年代末期爆发了两位数的通胀。 伯南克于2006年至2014年担任美联储主席，由乔治·W·布什任命。耶伦接替他担任主席，由奥巴马任 命，并任职至2018年。她还在拜登政府期间担任财政部长。两人均为经济学家。 作为美国联邦储备委员会的前主席，我们（即耶伦和伯南克）根据自身经验和对历史的理解深知，美联 储独立行事的能力对于其有效管理经济至关重要。 近期，一些试图损害这种独立性的行为，包括总统（即特朗普）要求大幅降息以及威胁解雇鲍威尔，这 些都可能对经济造成长期而严重的损害。这些行为不仅会损害鲍威尔本人，还会损害未来所有的美联储 主席，乃至美联储本身的公信力。 美联储在设定利率方面的独立性，并不意味着其缺乏民主问责制。国会已通过法律规定了美联储必须实 现的目标——最大就业和稳定物价，美联储的领导层也会定期向国会委员会汇报实现这些目标的进展 ...

周一，贝森特表示："我认为我们现在需要做的是审视整个美联储，并评估它是否成功。"他补充表示， 将在周一晚间于美联储的监管会议开幕式上发表主旨演讲。 贝森特称："如果这是联邦航空管理局(FAA)，而我们却出了这么多错误，我们肯定会回过头来查原 因。为什么会发生这种事?""那么多博士都在那里，我不知道他们在干什么。" 智通财经APP获悉，美国财政部长贝森特周一表示，美联储作为一个机构需要接受全面审视，并评估其 是否运作成功。贝森特在接受采访时拒绝就有关他曾建议美国总统特朗普不要解雇美联储主席鲍威尔的 报道发表评论，称这将由总统决定。但他表示，美联储这一机构应该接受审查，并指责其"在关税问题 上制造恐慌"，同时指出迄今为止几乎没有出现任何通胀影响。 此前有报道称，贝森特最近私下向特朗普建议，不要试图解雇鲍威尔。贝森特警告，解雇鲍威尔可能带 来经济、政治和法律后果。知情人士透露，贝森特告诉特朗普，在明年春天鲍威尔任期结束前罢免鲍威 尔，可能会引发金融市场的负面反应，并将美联储推向未知的法律和政治领域。贝森特还辩称，美联储 今年似乎准备降息，因此没有必要罢免鲍威尔。 有分析指出，如果特朗普像他所暗示的那样，采取前所未有 ...