这个世界上的很多事情，最终都绕不过美国。 因为特朗普是目前的美国总统，所以美国的很多动向与他息息相关。 01 特朗普又打算对美联储主席鲍威尔下手了。 2025年10月27日，美国总统特朗普向记者透露，可能会在今年年底前决定下一任美联储主席的人选。路 透社报道称，特朗普当天表示："也许到年底，我们会对美联储的问题做出决定。" 美国财政部长贝森特也透露，计划在感恩节后向特朗普提交一份"优秀的候选人名单"，目前候选人已缩 小至5人。 这番言论让美联储主席鲍威尔恐怕又要紧张了。 特朗普与美联储主席鲍威尔之间的关系并不好。 2025年4月17日，特朗普在社交平台"真实社交"上批评鲍威尔"又慢又错"，并表示"他早点走最好"。在 白宫接受媒体提问时，特朗普表示："如果我决定让他走，相信我，他很快就会走。我对他不满。" 2025年4月21日，特朗普再次表示鲍威尔是"太迟先生"和"一个大失败者"，并警告称如果鲍威尔不立刻 降息，美国经济将面临放缓。 如今，特朗普再次公开批评美联储主席，打算将他换掉。 可能有网友会问，为什么特朗普总是想换掉鲍威尔，却始终没有成功？ 这其中的原因比较复杂。 根据1913年美国通过的《联邦储备法》， ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell as "incompetent" and indicated that a new candidate will be appointed when Powell's term ends in May 2024, which could significantly impact U.S. monetary policy and the independence of the central bank [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership Changes - The candidate pool for the next Federal Reserve Chairman has narrowed to five individuals, including current Fed board members and senior figures from the White House and Wall Street [3]. - Trump aims to finalize his nominee by the end of this year, which may reflect underlying issues regarding Powell's position [3][4]. - The new chairman's selection is crucial as it will directly influence the future direction of U.S. monetary policy [1]. Group 2: Candidate Profiles - Kevin Hassett, closely associated with Trump, has held senior positions in the White House and is seen as a potential choice, though his appointment may threaten the Fed's independence [4]. - Kevin Walsh, who served on the Fed during the 2008 financial crisis, has been critical of the Fed's past policies, aligning with Trump's views [4]. - Christopher Waller, appointed by Trump in 2020, is familiar with the Fed's operations and may align with Trump's reform expectations [5]. - Michelle Bowman has opposed many regulatory measures from the Biden administration, appealing to Trump's desire for comprehensive Fed reform [5]. - Rick Reed, a Wall Street figure, is noted for his market knowledge but lacks familiarity with the Fed's internal bureaucracy, potentially offering a fresh perspective [5].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell as "incompetent" and indicated that a new candidate will be appointed when Powell's term ends in May 2024, which could significantly impact U.S. monetary policy and the independence of the central bank [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership Changes - Trump's comments suggest a desire for a significant shift in the Federal Reserve's leadership, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming policy meeting [1]. - The candidate pool for the new Federal Reserve Chairman has narrowed to five individuals, including current Fed board members and economic advisors, with interviews planned for November [3]. - The selection of a new chairman is critical as it will influence the future direction of U.S. monetary policy and the central bank's independence [1][3]. Group 2: Candidate Profiles - Kevin Hassett, a close associate of Trump, is seen as a strong candidate, but his appointment may threaten the Fed's independence during economic crises [4]. - Kevin Walsh, who has previously criticized the Fed's policies, is also a leading candidate and aligns with Trump's views on monetary policy [4]. - Christopher Waller, appointed by Trump in 2020, is considered a potential candidate who understands the Fed's operations and could implement reforms aligned with Trump's preferences [5]. - Michelle Bowman has a background in banking regulation and has opposed many Biden-era policies, making her an attractive option for Trump [5]. - Rick Reed, a Wall Street executive, is noted for his market knowledge but lacks familiarity with the Fed's internal workings, which could provide a fresh perspective [5].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Background of Fed's Rate Cut - The U.S. economy is slowing down, with a real GDP growth of 2.1% in the first half of the year, below the expected growth of nearly 3% for 2023-2024 and the 2015-2019 average of 2.6%[2] - Employment demand and supply are both weak, with an average of only 27,000 new non-farm jobs added monthly from May to August, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%[2] - Inflation is showing a mixed structure, with stable but high headline inflation, and commodity inflation rising offset by a decline in service inflation[2] Group 2: U.S. Treasury Yield Trends and Supply-Demand Characteristics - The term premium for U.S. Treasuries has significantly increased, reflecting investor caution towards long-term risks, with 20-year and above Treasuries at historically high premium levels[2] - The supply-demand structure for Treasuries is changing, with the Treasury increasing short-term debt issuance while maintaining stable overall financing[2] - As of September, T-Bills accounted for 21.5% of the total outstanding marketable debt, indicating a shift in financing strategy[2] Group 3: Historical Experience of Rate Cuts and Future Outlook - Historically, in the seven rate cut cycles from 1982 to 2019, the 10-year Treasury yield typically declines before the first cut due to "expectation pricing," but may rebound in the following months[2] - The Fed is expected to be cautious in its rate cut approach, with only one cut likely in October or December this year, and 2-3 cuts anticipated next year, leading to a policy rate around 3% by the end of 2026[2] - The 10-year Treasury yield is projected to fluctuate between 3.9% and 4.3% in the next 1-3 months, and potentially drop to 3.5%-4% in the 3-6 month outlook[2]

Core Points - President Trump is expected to announce a successor to current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by the end of the year [1][3] - The range of candidates has been narrowed down to five individuals [3][4] Candidate Summary - The five candidates include Michelle Bowman, Christopher Waller, Kevin Hassett, Kevin Walsh, and Rick Rieder [3][4] - Waller and Hassett are seen as frontrunners, with both having close ties to Trump [6] - Hassett's close relationship with Trump raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve if he is appointed [6] - Waller has previously criticized the Fed's policies, which aligns with Trump's views [6][7] - Bowman and Rieder are also considered viable candidates, with Bowman opposing many Biden-era regulations and Rieder bringing a fresh perspective from Wall Street [7] Monetary Policy Context - Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Powell's reluctance to lower interest rates, which has influenced the urgency of selecting a new chair [9] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points soon, with the current inflation rate around 3% [10] - The announcement of a new chair typically occurs in the last quarter of the current chair's term to avoid market uncertainty [10]

避险情绪回落 贵金属开启回调 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询资格证号：Z0021675 目录 第一章 综合分析及交易策略 2 | | | 第三章 贵金属基本面数据追踪 13 文 字 色 基 础 色 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 避险情绪回落 贵金属开启回调 ◼【综合分析】 风险事件：上周，近期集中爆发的多个市场风险事件发生了一些边际变化，令贵金属从高位回落。这些变化包括中美之间的贸易关系趋于缓和 ，特朗普称将和习主席见面、并在26年初访问中国；另外，俄乌冲突一度出现泽连斯基称乌克兰已准备好结束俄乌冲突。与特朗普举行会谈 期间，双方同意尝试以当前前线为基础进行谈判。由于领土问题一直是俄乌谈判间的核心矛盾之一，所以"尝试以当前前线为基础进行谈判" 意味着针对长达三年半的俄乌冲突问题乌克兰方面做出了一定妥协，因此在消息传出的当天晚上，贵金属出现了罕 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Federal Reserve (Fed) and its independence, particularly in the context of U.S. monetary policy and economic conditions. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Challenges to Fed Independence** The Fed's independence is facing significant challenges, particularly from the Trump administration, which is attempting to influence the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) by appointing representatives aligned with its views [2][8][11] 2. **Impact of New Appointee** The appointment of Stephen Milan, who supports aggressive rate cuts, contrasts sharply with the majority of FOMC members, potentially affecting the decision-making process within the Fed [1][2] 3. **Pressure from Trump** Trump has been pressuring Fed Chair Jerome Powell to implement substantial rate cuts, claiming that a reduction of 200-300 basis points could save the government $800 billion in interest payments [2][6][8] 4. **Internal Unity Among Fed Members** Despite external pressures, the presence of Milan has seemingly fostered greater unity among existing FOMC members, as evidenced by their voting behavior [2][5] 5. **Historical Context of Fed Independence** Historical precedents, such as the tenure of Arthur Burns in the 1970s, illustrate that a loss of Fed independence can lead to high inflation and unemployment, with gold prices performing exceptionally well during such periods [3][9][10] 6. **Current Economic Indicators** Recent CPI data has come in below expectations, leading to market speculation that the Fed may cut rates twice more in 2025, which has resulted in a decline in short-term interest rates and a rise in long-term rates [4][5] 7. **Miscalculations in Interest Savings** The claim that a 200 basis point cut would save $800 billion is flawed, as only 20% of U.S. government debt is in short-term bills, and the remaining 80% is in longer-term bonds, which are not directly influenced by the Fed [6][7] 8. **Potential Market Reactions** If the Fed loses its independence, historical patterns suggest that gold prices could continue to rise while the dollar index remains weak, reflecting a loss of confidence in the dollar [12] 9. **Future Economic Risks** The risk of high inflation remains a concern if the Fed adopts a more aggressive rate-cutting stance under new leadership, which could mirror past economic challenges [11] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The dynamics of the current market are similar to those observed during the Burns era, with gold prices potentially reaching new highs despite short-term fluctuations [4][10] - The geopolitical landscape and investor sentiment towards the dollar are also contributing factors to the anticipated performance of gold and the dollar index [12]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under direct challenge, with "external" member Miran representing the White House's aggressive rate cut stance, contrasting sharply with the more moderate internal views[4] - In the short term, the Federal Reserve's independence may not be immediately lost due to the unity among "internal" members, despite external pressures[6] - The experience from the Burns era indicates that a loss of independence for the Federal Reserve could lead to a weaker dollar and a stronger gold market[8] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Historical Context - During Burns' tenure, the U.S. economy experienced both high inflation and high unemployment, with an average CPI inflation rate of 6.5% and an average unemployment rate of 6.3%[52] - The Federal Reserve's policy rate was reduced by over 200 basis points, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 24 basis points during this period[8] - The S&P 500 index declined by 1.7%, and the dollar index fell by over 20%, while gold prices surged by over 425.6%[50] Group 3: Current Federal Reserve Dynamics - The September 2025 dot plot revealed one member advocating for a policy rate below 3%, suggesting a need for rate cuts exceeding 50 basis points in upcoming meetings[19] - The voting dynamics show a split among members, with 9 members supporting a total of 3 rate cuts this year, while 6 members oppose any further cuts[19] - The recent voting results indicate a temporary unity among internal members, with only Miran dissenting on the extent of the rate cut[22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that U.S. long-term government bonds remain vulnerable due to concerns over fiscal deficits and the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] - There is particular concern regarding the 30-year segment of the yield curve, with fears that long-term bond yields could rise rapidly [1] - It is noted that yields could increase by 25 to 30 basis points within just a few days [1]

前言 在联合国大会的演讲台上，特朗普的宣言掷地有声，随之而来的是白宫对历史性经济成就的密集宣传。 但这番自信表态并未赢得普遍认同，反而引发了一场围绕数据真实性的激烈辩论。美联储用持续高企的 核心指标表达质疑，经济学家们直指其数据魔术，普通民众则用日渐干瘪的钱包给出了最现实的回应。 这场看似胜负已分的通胀之战，实则是数据话术与经济现实的剧烈碰撞。 特朗普政府口中的通胀胜利，根基是一组精心挑选的短期数据。 白宫团队反复强调，2025年1月至8月的物价涨幅经年化处理后仅为2.3%，并将其包装成通胀被彻底压 制的铁证。 这种计算方式的逻辑很简单：把八个月的累计涨幅直接乘以12个月与8个月的比例，得出年度化的通胀 率。 美联储的担忧不止于通胀本身。在最近的议息会议纪要中，官员们明确提及劳动力市场出现裂痕：受关 税政策影响，多个进口依赖型行业的企业为转嫁成本，已开始缩减招聘规模甚至裁员。 美国劳工部的修订数据显示，2024年4月至2025年3月的新增就业岗位比最初统计少了91.1万 个，每月实际新增岗位仅7.1万个，较原数据近乎腰斩。 美联储及高盛、摩根大通等权威机构普遍采用年度同比数据，即当月物价与去年同月对比，作为判 ...