据上观新闻报道，在全球经济一体化的时代浪潮下，特朗普政府以"对等关税"为名挑起的贸易争端，本 意图通过极限施压重塑国际贸易格局，巩固美国的霸权地位，然而这场关税战的发展走向却完全出乎美 方预料。这场关税战不仅没有实现美国的预期目标，反而加速了全球经济格局的深刻变革，一个"后美 国时代"的轮廓正逐渐清晰，而中国凭借精准且智慧的破局策略，让美国自食恶果，吞下了贸易战的苦 果。 特朗普（资料图） 在这场博弈中，中国展现出了强大的战略定力和精准的应对策略。中国的反制措施堪称"精准且硬气"， 在农业领域，对美国大豆、玉米等农产品加征关税，直击共和党农业州的核心利益；在技术领域，限制 稀土出口影响美国军工产业链，华为5G专利诉讼迫使高通等企业支付更高授权费，形成不对称威慑。 同时，中国积极扩大内需，加大对东盟农产品进口，既对冲了出口下滑的风险，又平衡了反制与民生需 求。尽管美国对华加征高额关税，但2023 - 2024年中美贸易额仍逆势增长超8%，这一数据深刻反映了 全球化时代贸易关系的复杂性和中国经济的强大韧性。 中国对美出口中约30%为美企在华生产产品，关税成本由美国企业分摊；中国制造业的规模效应难以替 代，越南等新 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views - The plastics market is affected by factors such as increased supply from new capacity and reduced downstream demand, but the sentiment is boosted by Sino - US trade negotiations, suggesting that short positions should gradually stop profit and exit [3] - For lithium carbonate, the supply - demand surplus pattern continues, with futures prices hitting new lows and limited room for spot price decline, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [5] - The short - term copper price is expected to be mainly oscillating upwards, affected by Sino - US negotiations and supply - demand fundamentals, and attention should be paid to the US CPI data [10] - Crude oil supply is under pressure, demand growth is expected to slow down, and it is recommended to stop profit on previous short positions [11][13] - For asphalt, under the situation of weak supply and demand, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [14] - PP is expected to oscillate, with downstream demand recovery slow and new orders limited, but market sentiment is boosted by trade negotiations [15][16] - PVC is still under pressure, but it is recommended to gradually stop profit on short positions due to improved macro - sentiment [17] - Urea prices are expected to oscillate upwards, but the upward space is restricted by policies [18][19] Summary by Variety Plastics - Supply: Yulong Petrochemical's overhauled devices restarted, and new capacity was put into production, but some devices were also under maintenance [3] - Demand: PE downstream开工率 decreased, with agricultural film entering the off - season and other demand being average [3] - Inventory: Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years [3] - Recommendation: Gradually stop profit on short positions [3] Carbonate Lithium - Price: The futures price hit a new low, and the spot price is close to the bottom [4][5] - Supply: Production in Jiangxi is stable, while the northern region's开工率 has decreased significantly [5] - Demand: Positive electrode production is expected to increase in May and then enter the off - season, and the impact of US tariffs on global demand may be limited [5] - Inventory: There is a slight reduction in inventory [5] - Recommendation: Wait and see [5] Copper - Price: Affected by Sino - US negotiations and the US dollar, it is expected to oscillate upwards in the short term [9][10] - Supply: The supply of copper ore is tight, and there are many smelter maintenance plans in May and July - September [10] - Demand: Downstream demand shows resilience, with cable enterprise开工率 and orders increasing [10] - Recommendation: Pay attention to the US CPI data [10] Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC + is gradually increasing production, and US production is at a high level, with large supply pressure [11] - Demand: The growth rate of global demand is expected to slow down [11] - Recommendation: Stop profit on previous short positions [13] Asphalt - Supply:开工率 has rebounded, and production is expected to increase in May [14] - Demand: Downstream开工率 is uneven, and actual demand needs to be restored [14] - Inventory: The inventory - to - sales ratio has slightly increased, still at a low level in recent years [14] - Recommendation: Wait and see [14] PP - Supply: New production capacity is put into production, and there are more maintenance devices, with enterprise开工率 at a relatively low level [15] - Demand: Downstream开工率 continues to decline, and new orders are limited [15][16] - Inventory: Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years [15] - Recommendation: Expected to oscillate [16] PVC - Supply:开工率 has increased, and spring maintenance scale is less than last year [17] - Demand: Downstream开工率 is still low, and exports are affected by policies [17] - Inventory: Social inventory is still high [17] - Recommendation: Gradually stop profit on short positions [17] Urea - Supply:开工率 is stable, and some enterprises are resuming production [18] - Demand: Agricultural fertilization is cautious, and compound fertilizer factory开工率 may decline [18][19] - Inventory: Inventory is being reduced [18] - Recommendation: Prices are expected to oscillate upwards, but be cautious of risks [19]

巴西总统卢拉：贸易战没有赢家，导致经济低迷。 ...

文/珠玑说 无论是特朗普在国内推动药价改革却绑定国际汽车贸易的施压，还是盟友日本突然对美国展现出的贸易强硬姿态，都说明，这场博弈还未结束，此次会谈 中，美方最想要的中方没有给，日本会做出怎样的强硬举动呢？ (本文所有内容皆有官方可靠信源，具体资料赘述文章结尾) 中美贸易战关税刚迎来缓和，日内瓦谈判桌上达成了部分关税回调共识，然而，新的风向和对抗已悄然展开。 日内瓦的"休战符" 中美贸易战，刚透出一丝暖意就又寒风乍起？日内瓦谈判桌上的"实质性进展"，听着像那么回事，双方说好了，从5月14号起，关税大棒暂时收一收，退回 到4月2号以前的水平。 可就在大家以为能喘口气的时候，新的火药味儿已经悄然弥漫开来，这次握手，更像是一场复杂棋局中的暂停，而非终局的哨声。 表面上看，这次谈判成果显著，美国取消了清单里高达91%的加征关税，中国也投桃报李，撤了对等比例的反制关税。 具体数字更扎眼：美国对中国商品的关税税率，从先前吓人的145%，"大刀阔斧"砍到了30%，这里头还包含了那笔备受争议的20%"芬太尼税"，中国对美国 货的关税也降到了10%，双方似乎都拿出了不小的诚意。 但猫腻往往藏在细节里，美国那边有一项关键的24%对 ...

导 语 ：美国将在90天内将关税从145%降至30%。但90天结束后会发生什么？ 巴罗卡斯（Barrocas）立即指示中国的工厂释放运往美国的货物，包括咖啡机和"Ninja Slushie"冰沙 机（一种冷饮制作机）。巴罗卡斯表示："在关税生效时，我们有数百个集装箱准备离开中国。现 在，我们终于可以把它们装上船。" SharkNinja首席执行官马克·巴罗卡斯（Mark Barrocas）在周日晚上执着地刷着新闻动态，寻找中美 两国是否会达成关税协议的任何迹象。 周一清晨，消息传来：美国将在90天内将关税从145%降至30%。 美国各地依赖中国进口的企业已经陷入困境数周，试图摸索如何应对特朗普总统（President Trump）在四月份对中国商品施加的高额关税。各家公司纷纷通过涨价、削减开支和裁员等方式努 力应对关税带来的额外成本。 如今，这场停战可能打破两国间事实上的贸易禁运。周一，美国股市大涨，美元攀升，投资者削减 了对美联储降息的押注。 许多公司表示，他们将迅速把货物装上前往美国港口的船只。 詹妮弗·伯奇（Jennifer Burch），Hightail Hair的联合创始人，从她的丈夫兼联合创始人乔 ...

Group 1 - Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato plans to meet with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during the G7 meeting in Canada to discuss foreign exchange issues [1] - The meeting is scheduled for May 20-22, focusing on the separation of currency issues from direct trade negotiations between Japan and the U.S. [1] - Kato and Bessent last met on April 24, agreeing to continue constructive dialogue on monetary policy without setting exchange rate targets [1] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar surged due to a temporary tariff reduction agreement between the U.S. and China, alleviating concerns about a potential global economic recession [2] - Risk sentiment improved, leading to a decline in safe-haven currencies like the yen, with the dollar reaching 148.66 yen, the highest level since April 3 [2] - Kato stated that the Japanese government will closely monitor the developments related to the U.S.-China agreement and assess its impact, although he refrained from commenting on exchange rate trends [4]

即使是短暂的贸易战也会引发不确定性。 欧洲央行管委Makhlouf：敏捷性和灵活性对政策制定者很重要。 ...

据金融界报道，近日，对于即将到来的中美经济高层会谈，外交部副部长华春莹做出表示。华春莹明确 表示，中方完全有信心也有能力处理来自于美国的贸易问题，美国国内民众也受到了关税问题的严重影 响，美国的贸易政策不得民心，是走不远的。同时，华春莹还强调，中方不希望与任何国家打贸易战。 中方有勇气直面这次的会谈，坚持到最后，克服一切贸易困难。 美国民众和和部分商人十分依赖中国进口产品，关税提高使得这些产品价格提高，民众对政府的支持率 不断下滑，商人也多次联合起来要求白宫方面降低关税。与此同时，对于美国随意提高关税的霸权行 为，欧盟向世界贸易组织提出诉讼，并计划对美国进口产品进行经济反制措施。美方的行为破坏了美国 和欧盟之间的贸易关系，欧盟对美国的产品进行反制，迫使美国调整关税使其恢复正常。 中国加入世贸组织，经济开始调整，复苏，发展，崛起，美国开始害怕，害怕作为第二大经济体的中国 再发展下去会超越自己。美国以维护自身发展利益为借口，提高了关税，极力打压中国的产品，打贸易 战，企图以此来遏制住中国的经济发展。但事实证明，美方的行为并没有起到很好的效果，反而引起了 美国国内多方不满，甚至是欧盟的反对。 贸易港口（资料图） 特 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Soybean and Related Products**: The soybean market is influenced by international production and domestic supply - demand. The soybean oil 2509 contract may have short - term range - bound oscillations, and the soybean meal may experience short - term oscillations. The domestic soybean oil mid - term de - stocking cycle may end, and inventory may rebound. The supply of domestic soybean meal is expected to turn from tight to loose [1]. - **Corn**: The domestic corn market is in the new - old grain gap period, and the corn price will maintain a relatively strong performance in the short term due to supply tightness and weak demand [2]. - **Copper**: The copper price's monthly K - line shows a balance between yin and yang. In the short term, investors can try to enter the market based on the moving average system [3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The carbonate lithium 2507 contract may have a weak - side oscillation, and investors can short at high prices. The cost support is weakening, and the price is under pressure [4][5]. - **Steel**: The steel fundamentals are gradually improving, and the market presents a pattern of strong supply and demand. The black negative feedback is gradually reflected in the market. Investors can consider going long at low prices for far - month contracts after May [6]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. They will have a low - level weak - side oscillation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market has a mix of long and short factors. The 2509 contract will have short - term oscillations [8]. - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil market has oscillations. In the medium - long term, the price center will move down, but the WTI main contract has technical support at $55 per barrel [9]. - **Rubber**: The rubber market is mainly driven by fundamentals, with a loose supply - demand situation globally. It is running weakly, and investors can pay attention to the support at around 14,000 yuan per ton for the main contract [10][11]. - **PVC**: The demand for PVC is weak, and the futures price may have low - level oscillations [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and the futures market will have wide - range oscillations in the short term [13]. 3. Summary by Product Soybean and Related Products - **Spot Information**: The price of Rizhao Jiji first - grade soybean oil is 8,080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 43 - protein soybean meal prices in different regions have declined [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, the South American new - crop soybean is likely to have a bumper harvest, and the US soybean production is expected to change. Domestically, the supply of soybean oil may increase, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to turn from tight to loose [1]. Corn - **Spot Information**: Different regions have different corn acquisition prices, such as 2,194 yuan/ton in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia and 2,439 yuan/ton in North China and Huanghuai [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The impact of the Sino - US tariff dispute on the corn market is limited. Domestically, there is a short - term supply shortage and weak demand [2]. Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,060 - 78,490 yuan, up 70 yuan, with a discount of 50 - premium of 20 [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The Sino - US tariff negotiation has made progress, and domestic policies are supportive. However, the raw material supply problem persists, and the copper inventory is rapidly declining [3]. Carbonate Lithium - **Spot Information**: The battery - grade carbonate lithium (99.5%) is priced at 65,250 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan, and the industrial - grade is 63,550 yuan/ton, also down 450 yuan [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost support is weakening, the supply is high, the demand improvement is insufficient, and the inventory is accumulating [4]. Steel - **Spot Information**: The Shanghai rebar price is 3,170 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 5.3276 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 2.004 million tons [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The steel fundamentals are improving, the cost is dynamic, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations [6]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 1,205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is loose, the demand is weak, the inventory is slightly increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [7]. Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The iron ore Platts index is 98.6, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 760 yuan, and the price of Australian 62% Fe powder ore is 756 yuan [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply and demand factors are mixed, and the market is affected by the US tariff policy [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical conflicts boost the price, but the OPEC+ production increase and trade - war concerns affect the price. The medium - long - term price center will move down [9]. Rubber - **Spot Information**: Not provided comprehensively in the text. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is loose, and the demand may be suppressed by the US auto tariff [10][11]. PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,650 yuan/ton, and the ethylene - based PVC is 5,000 yuan/ton [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is decreasing slightly [12]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,416.88 yuan/ton, unchanged [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is slightly decreasing, the inventory is increasing, and the demand is average. The market will have wide - range oscillations [13].

Group 1 - The US has significantly reduced tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, marking a dramatic shift in trade relations and exposing vulnerabilities in the US economy [1][3] - The agreement includes a phased withdrawal of tariffs, with the US canceling 91% of the additional tariffs and maintaining a 10% base tariff, while China has lowered its tariffs to 10%-45% [3][5] - The negotiations revealed the strategic importance of rare earth elements, with China maintaining strict control over their export, impacting US military and high-tech industries [5][7] Group 2 - China's negotiation strategy involved leveraging its control over 17 key rare earth metals, which effectively targeted the US high-end manufacturing sector without violating WTO rules [7] - The trade war has led to increased costs for American consumers, with a reported annual increase of $3,800 in household spending due to tariffs [5] - The ongoing competition between the US and China is expected to escalate into a tech war, particularly in the semiconductor sector, as both countries prepare for future confrontations [8][10] Group 3 - The trade agreement is seen as a temporary pause, with underlying tensions remaining, particularly regarding supply chain dependencies and the potential for a renewed trade conflict [8][10] - China's market diversification efforts are aimed at reducing reliance on the US, with a focus on strengthening ties with emerging markets [7] - The US is exploring ways to rebuild supply chains outside of China, indicating that the trade war may evolve into a new phase of economic competition [8]