8月6日，据报道，美联储官员卡什卡利表示，短期内开始调整政策利率可能仍是合适的；美联储需要对 经济放缓作出回应；今年降息两次似乎仍然是合适的；如果通胀因关税而上升，美联储可能会暂停降 息，甚至加息。 ...

美国国债的数字已经堆到了骇人的36万亿美元，光是每年要还的利息就超过1.4万亿。 这个无底洞每天都在吞噬着巨额财富，常规的法子显然已经失灵。 走投无路之下，特朗普把视线牢牢锁定在了美国国内最大的债主身上。 甚至，为此不惜自曝家丑！ 马斯克都带不动的"节流"大计 特朗普一上台，就摆出了大刀阔斧改革的姿态，头一件事就是"节流"。 他请来了名满天下的马斯克， 成立了一个叫DOGE的效率委员会，任务很明确，就是把政府账本翻个底朝天，把那些被滥用的钱给省下来。 马斯克带着他的团队确实干了几件实事。 他们深入调查了问题成堆的养老金系统，还手起刀落，直接关停了那个花钱不少、成效却饱受诟病的对外援助机构USDIA。 这让特朗普的支持者们看到了希望，似乎政府的财政纪律真能被重塑。 好景不长，当调查的矛头指向五角大楼和财政部这些核心部门时，一切都变了。 调查员们发现， 无论他们怎么努力，都无法撼动这些部门的预算分毫。 那里的利益盘根错节，仿佛一堵无形的墙，挡住了所有想往里看的人。 到了6月份，马斯克终于看清了形势，他意识到这根本不是一个技术问题。 在几个月的徒劳无功之后，他干脆利落地退出了这个委员会。 被寄予厚望的节流计划，就这 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead remained flat this week, while demand gradually weakened. Considering anti - involution speculation, it is recommended to place long orders on dips [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,855 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 1,975.5 dollars/ton, up 12 dollars [2] - The spread between the 09 - 10 contracts of Shanghai lead was 5 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead was 105,235 lots, down 7,502 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 3,127 lots, down 1,591 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 58,656 tons, down 351 tons [2] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 63,283 tons, up 29 tons; the LME lead inventory was 272,975 tons, down 1,250 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,725 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,940 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan [2] - The basis of the lead main contract was - 130 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 41.92 dollars/ton, up 5.94 dollars [2] - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 15,953 yuan, down 226 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,770 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead was - 18,700 tons, up 7,100 tons; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 34.15%, down 0.8 percentage points [2] - The number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged; the monthly output of recycled lead was 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons [2] - The average operating rate of primary lead was 77.49%, up 3.68 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 34,100 tons, up 600 tons [2] - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 60 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16,400 tons, up 48,800 tons [2] - The global lead ore output was 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons; the monthly lead ore import volume was 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [2] 3.4 Industrial Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 540 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The monthly export volume of refined lead was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average price of waste batteries in the market was 10,107.14 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of lead - acid batteries was 41.45 million units, down 425,000 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 19,975 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [2] - The Shenwan industry index of the tertiary industry of batteries was 1,771.53 points, up 38.86 points; the monthly automobile production was 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles [2] - The monthly new - energy vehicle production was 1.647 million vehicles, up 73,000 vehicles [2] 3.6 Industry News - Trump will announce tariffs on drugs and chips in the next week, with a maximum drug tariff of 250%. He will significantly increase tariffs on India within 24 hours. If the EU fails to fulfill its investment obligations to the US, a 35% tariff will be imposed. The US trade deficit in June was - 60.2 billion dollars, the smallest since September 2023 [2] - The US non - manufacturing PMI in July dropped from 50.8 in June to 50.1, lower than the expected 51.5. The ISM new order index in July dropped from 51.3 in June to 50.3, and export orders contracted for the fourth time in five months [2] - Trump said Vance is most likely to be the next presidential candidate, and Secretary of State Rubio would be helpful if he works with Vance [2] - Trump may soon announce a new Fed chairman, with four candidates. Bessent hopes to stay in the Treasury [2] - Trump will decide whether to impose sanctions on countries that buy Russian energy after the meeting between the Middle East envoy and Russia on Wednesday [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Affected by the decline in lead prices, the operating rate of primary lead smelters increased, leading to an increase in production. Currently, the operating rate of primary lead remains strong compared to recycled lead, and its by - product revenue is stable. However, as lead prices continue to fluctuate, some primary lead smelters have adjusted their production decisions [2] - For recycled lead, due to the tight supply of waste battery raw materials, smelters lack confidence, and the overall supply is tight. From the actual resumption of production rhythm, the resumption progress is slow due to cost inversion [2] - Today, the price of 1 lead rebounded by 150 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric batteries remained stable, with prices in some enterprises in Jiangxi and Shanxi increasing by 50 yuan/ton. The tax - free price of waste electric batteries was reported at 9,900 - 9,950 yuan/ton, and the purchase price at the recycling end was reported at 9,820 - 9,880 yuan/ton, following the increase of manufacturers [2] - The lead - acid battery industry, the main consumer area of lead, is approaching the traditional peak consumption season. However, in the context of rising prices, spot transactions are dull, and downstream enterprises generally adopt a wait - and - see attitude. Although lead - acid batteries have seen price increases, the inventory clearance of dealers is slow, which greatly suppresses the enthusiasm of battery factories to start production. If the wait - and - see sentiment of downstream enterprises continues, the demand for lead in the lead - acid battery industry will hardly improve significantly, and the overall demand side will remain weak [2] - Recently, the inventory has shown a slight upward trend, and the number of warehouse receipts has also increased, indicating a slowdown in overall demand. Although the lead - acid battery industry is approaching the peak season, from the current inventory data, demand has not effectively driven inventory clearance. If the demand side still fails to pick up this week, domestic inventory may continue to accumulate, putting pressure on lead prices [2]

Group 1 - The current silver price is trading at $37.79 per ounce, with a daily high of $37.90 and a low of $37.72 [1][2] - The U.S. dollar index is around 98.79, indicating a stable currency environment [1] - Market attention is focused on the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve's Daly, which may influence interest rate expectations [1] Group 2 - Silver is a non-yielding asset, and its price is sensitive to interest rate expectations and macroeconomic signals [3] - President Trump is expected to nominate a new member to the FOMC, likely favoring a more dovish stance, which could increase the probability of interest rate cuts [3] - Trump's comments on potential tariffs on the semiconductor, chip, and pharmaceutical industries have heightened market risk aversion, benefiting safe-haven assets like silver [3] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that silver is in a consolidation phase after a short-term pullback, with the Bollinger Bands showing a tightening range [4] - The MACD indicator suggests a potential technical rebound if the DIFF line crosses above the DEA line, indicating weakening bearish momentum [4] - The price is expected to stabilize above the support level of $36.200, with a potential target of $38.800 if it holds above the Bollinger middle band [4]

当地时间8月5日，美国供应管理协会（ISM）发布的7月服务业采购经理人指数（PMI）下滑至50.1，不 仅低于6月的50.8，也逊于市场普遍预期。 美国服务业未能免疫于关税冲击波，扩张动能显著减弱。 服务业占美国国内生产总值（GDP）的70%以上，在制造业连续五个月收缩的背景下，服务业成为今年 以来支撑美国经济增长的主要力量。自去年7月以来，服务业PMI仅在今年5月短暂跌破荣枯线，并在6 月实现反弹。然而，7月数据的再度回落，引发了市场对美国经济前景的深度担忧，当日美国三大股指 全线收跌。 ISM服务业商业调查委员会主席米勒（Steve Miller）警告称，关税正在推高价格支付水平，可能会成为 未来通胀的推动因素。 持续强劲的就业市场是美国支出维持强劲的核心支柱。但当前，美国劳动力市场已经显示出放缓迹象。 7月末，美国国家餐饮协会致信美国贸易代表格里尔，称对新一轮关税措施"极度担忧"。信中称，若对 墨西哥和加拿大进口的食品饮料征收30%关税，美国餐饮业年度新增成本将高达151.6亿美元，严重侵 蚀行业"本就微薄的利润率"，并最终转嫁为菜单价格的上涨。若对巴西或欧盟加征关税，将在咖啡、牛 肉、欧洲食品、葡萄酒 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley emphasizes the importance of CPI data integrity for the $2.1 trillion TIPS market, expecting July inflation rates to remain above the Federal Reserve's target despite political pressures [1] - The Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities Index has risen by 5.7% this year, indicating increased demand for inflation-protected assets [1] - The U.S. Treasury plans to increase TIPS issuance to meet debt financing needs [1] Group 2 - Mitsubishi UFJ analysts note that ASEAN and India will face significant U.S. tariff increases starting in early August, potentially altering the current economic landscape [1] - The Indian rupee remains stable, while the Indian stock market has declined by 0.2%, with expectations of more accommodative monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of India in response to U.S. tariff impacts [1] Group 3 - Bloomberg Economic Research indicates that the Eurozone economy is performing well, leading the European Central Bank to hold off on easing monetary policy, with no expected rate cut in September [2] - The ECB's next action is anticipated in December, potentially lowering the deposit rate to 1.75% [2] Group 4 - Goldman Sachs reports significant downward revisions to U.S. non-farm payroll data for May and June, indicating a more severe labor market weakness than previously expected, which may prompt adjustments in Federal Reserve monetary policy [2] - The total downward revision for non-farm payrolls for May and June is 258,000, the largest two-month revision since 1968 [2] Group 5 - Nomura Securities suggests that the likelihood of two rate cuts by the end of December has significantly increased following the release of July non-farm data, with rising demand for hedging against potential economic hard landing risks [3] - Danish Bank analysts state that the Swiss franc's performance depends on the outcome of U.S.-Swiss trade negotiations, with potential high tariffs on Swiss exports if no agreement is reached [3]

本田汽车第一季度营业利润为2442亿日元，同比下降50%，远低于分析师预期。美国总统特朗普加征的 关税对本季度营业利润造成了约1250亿日元的负面影响。 公司上调了截至2026年3月财年全年营业利润预测至7000亿日元，高于此前预期的5000亿日元。本田预 计全年受关税影响的金额将从之前的6500亿日元降至4500亿日元。 （文章来源：证券时报网） ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 豫能控股（001896.SZ）8月6日在投资者互动平台表示，公司目前主营业务为火力发电，公司主要向国 网河南省电力公司进行售电，关税对公司业务没有影响。 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：董秘书你好：请问美国关税对公司有没有影响？请董 秘书回复一下？ ...

格隆汇8月6日｜本田汽车(HMC.US)公司上调了全年利润预期，尽管其季度数据受到美国总统特朗普对 进口汽车和汽车零部件征收关税的打击。该公司周三表示，截至2026年3月的财年，公司目前预计营业 利润为7000亿日元（合47亿美元）。相比之下，之前的预测是5000亿日元，分析师的平均预测是8960亿 日元。在受到关税导致的1250亿日元负面影响后，该公司4月至6月的三个月利润为2440亿日元，低于分 析师预测的3100亿日元。该季度销售额下降1%，至5.3万亿日元。本田首席财务官表示，目前预计关税 的总影响为4500亿日元，低于该公司此前预估的6500亿日元。他将全年汽车销量预期维持在362万辆不 变。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Honda Motor Co., Ltd. reported disappointing Q1 results for the fiscal year 2025, with revenues and profits falling short of market expectations, yet the company raised its full-year guidance significantly [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q1 revenue was 5.34 trillion yen, a decrease of 1.2% year-on-year, below the market expectation of 5.40 trillion yen [1][2]. - Operating profit for Q1 was 244.1 billion yen, down 49.6% year-on-year, and also below the expected 309.6 billion yen [1][2]. - The operating margin fell to 4.6%, a decline of 4.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1][2]. - Profit before income taxes was 292.3 billion yen, a decrease of 47.7% year-on-year [1][2]. - Net profit attributable to owners of the parent was 196.6 billion yen, down 50.2% year-on-year [1][2]. Full-Year Guidance - Honda revised its full-year revenue forecast for fiscal year 2025 to 21.1 trillion yen, up from the previous estimate of 20.3 trillion yen [2][3]. - The company now expects operating profit for the year to be 700 billion yen, increased from the prior forecast of 500 billion yen [2][3]. - The forecast for profit before income taxes was raised to 710 billion yen, up from 490 billion yen previously [2][3]. - Net profit for the year is now projected at 420 billion yen, significantly higher than the previous estimate of 250 billion yen [2][3]. Currency and Tariff Impact - Honda adjusted its assumptions regarding the USD/JPY exchange rate to an average of 140 yen per dollar, up from 135 yen [3]. - The company expects a loss of 450 billion yen in operating profit due to tariffs, revised down from an earlier estimate of 650 billion yen [3]. - A trade agreement between the U.S. and Japan was reached, resulting in a 15% tariff on Japanese imports, including a 12.5% tariff on automobiles [4].