习言道｜积极识变应变求变，牢牢把握战略主动 中国互联网发展基金会 | 中国互联网发展基金会 China Internet Development Foundation | 中国正能量网络传播专项基金支持项目 "十五五"时期 是基本实现社会主义现代化 770 分头巷何、 王国权力的 中共中央8月27日在中南海召开党外人士座谈会，就中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议听取各民主 党派中央、全国工商联负责人和无党派人士代表的意见建议。中共中央总书记习近平主持座谈会并发表重要讲话强调—— 习近平 在党外人士座谈会上说 2025年8月27日 中國 狗闻網 WWW.CHINANEWS.COM.CN 关键时期。 习近平 在党外人士座谈会上说 2025年8月27日 中國 狗闻網 WWW.CHINANEWS.COM.CN CIDF 中国互联网发展基金会 | 中国互联网发展基金会 China Internet Development Foundation 丨中国正能量网络传播专项基金支持项目 要密切跟踪、 精准研判国际形势, 积极识变应变求变, c 牢把握战略主动。 元论外部环境怎么变化, 都要集中力量 办好 ...

Core Points - The article discusses the key objectives and strategies outlined in the "15th Five-Year Plan" for China's economic and social development, emphasizing the importance of achieving high-quality growth and modernization by 2035 [1][2][3] Economic Growth and Development Goals - The main goals for the "15th Five-Year Plan" include achieving significant results in high-quality development, maintaining reasonable economic growth, and improving residents' consumption rates [3] - By 2035, China aims to reach a per capita GDP of approximately $23,000, requiring an average nominal GDP growth of 5% annually over the next decade [4][5] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The plan emphasizes expanding domestic demand as a strategic foundation, with a focus on enhancing consumer spending and investment in both goods and services [7][8] - The retail sales of consumer goods are projected to exceed 50 trillion yuan in 2025, positioning China as the second-largest consumer market globally [7] Modern Industrial System - The "15th Five-Year Plan" prioritizes building a modern industrial system, with a focus on optimizing traditional industries and fostering new and future industries [9] - It is estimated that the plan will create a market space of around 10 trillion yuan over the next five years, contributing to economic growth and improving living standards [9] Technological Innovation - The plan aims to accelerate high-level technological self-reliance, enhancing the overall effectiveness of the national innovation system and promoting breakthroughs in key technologies [10][11] - The artificial intelligence sector is expected to grow significantly, with over 4,500 companies projected by the end of 2024, contributing to new economic growth drivers [11] High-Level Opening Up - The plan includes a dedicated section on expanding high-level opening up, signaling China's commitment to open cooperation and mutual benefit [12][13] - It aims to leverage China's large market to attract foreign investment and enhance international collaboration, particularly in high-tech industries [13][14]

Group 1 - The core outcome of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session is the approval of the "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" [1][2] - The "15th Five-Year" period is crucial for achieving socialist modernization and is characterized by significant international and domestic changes [2][3] - The session emphasizes the importance of strategic planning for the "15th Five-Year" period, which is seen as a key phase in the broader modernization process [2][3] Group 2 - The session outlines the guiding principles and major objectives for economic and social development during the "15th Five-Year" period, emphasizing the need for a clear roadmap [4][5] - The "Six Persistences" are established as essential principles, including the leadership of the Party, prioritizing the people, and promoting high-quality development [6][5] - The focus on building a modern industrial system and strengthening the real economy is highlighted as a top priority for the "15th Five-Year" plan [8][9] Group 3 - The session calls for the acceleration of high-level technological self-reliance and the promotion of green transformation in economic and social development [8][9] - Specific measures include optimizing regional economic layouts, enhancing cultural development, and modernizing national security systems [9] - The session sets a vision for a prosperous future, aiming for significant improvements in economic strength, technological capabilities, and overall quality of life by 2035 [3][9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outcomes of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, emphasizing the strategic opportunities and challenges facing the country in the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" period [1][2]. Group 1: Situation Assessment - The meeting praised the significant achievements during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting advancements in economic, technological, and comprehensive national strength [2]. - It identified the next five years as a critical period for achieving socialist modernization, while acknowledging the complex and changing development environment [2]. - The meeting reiterated the importance of maintaining a focus on economic construction and emphasized the need for strategic determination and proactive historical engagement [2]. Group 2: Development Goals - Seven main goals for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period were proposed, including significant improvements in high-quality development, technological self-reliance, and national security [3]. - The long-term vision for 2035 includes substantial increases in economic, technological, and national defense strength, with a target for per capita GDP to reach the level of moderately developed countries [3]. - The meeting highlighted the importance of national defense and international influence as new goals, reflecting a focus on security amid global changes [3]. Group 3: Key Work Areas - Twelve key work areas were outlined, with the construction of a modern industrial system prioritized, emphasizing the need for a robust real economy [5]. - Accelerating technological self-reliance and innovation was highlighted as essential for leading new productive forces, with a focus on education, talent, and core technology breakthroughs [6]. - The meeting stressed the importance of expanding domestic demand and establishing a new development pattern, with a focus on enhancing the internal circulation of supply and demand [7]. - High-level openness and cooperation were emphasized, aiming to create a win-win situation in response to global challenges [8]. - The meeting called for optimizing regional economic layouts and promoting coordinated regional development, identifying key growth areas [9]. - Enhancing and improving people's livelihoods was underscored, with a focus on common prosperity and addressing urgent social issues [10]. - The meeting outlined the need for sustained economic policy efforts to achieve annual development goals, with a GDP growth rate of 5.2% in the first three quarters of the year [11].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of "technological self-reliance" as a key development goal for the next five years, aligning with the current themes of development and security [2] - The economic focus is on the real economy, aiming to build a "modern industrial system led by advanced manufacturing" [3] - The report highlights the significance of domestic demand, stating the need to "build a strong domestic market" and enhance the internal circulation of the economy [4] Summary by Sections Strategic Goals - The 14th Five-Year Plan is seen as a critical period for achieving the 2035 goals, with a proactive policy stance to address complex development environments [2] - The report indicates that the economic growth target for the 14th Five-Year Plan will not be explicitly quantified but suggests a growth rate of no less than 4.5%-5% [2] Industrial Development - The construction of a modern industrial system is prioritized, with a focus on maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing and emphasizing advanced manufacturing [3] - Key areas for technological innovation include breakthroughs in original innovation and core technologies, particularly in emerging industries such as new energy and aerospace [3] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The report stresses the importance of enhancing domestic demand and balancing consumption and investment, indicating a shift towards policies favoring consumer and livelihood improvements [4] Capital Market Outlook - The report predicts a continuation of a slow bull market in A-shares, driven by policy shifts and technological catalysts, with a focus on "big technology" as a long-term investment theme [7] - Key sectors to watch include AI, robotics, high-end equipment manufacturing, and opportunities for Chinese industries to expand internationally [7]

Group 1: Economic Development Goals - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasized the importance of the 14th Five-Year Plan and its alignment with the goal of achieving basic socialist modernization by 2035[1] - The session recognized significant achievements in economic, technological, and comprehensive national strength during the 14th Five-Year Plan period[1] - The 15th Five-Year Plan is deemed a critical period for laying the foundation for achieving socialist modernization[1] Group 2: Technological Advancement - The meeting prioritized enhancing self-reliance in technology, placing it as the second of seven major goals for the 15th Five-Year Plan[2] - It highlighted the need to address "bottleneck" issues in key technological areas to improve national core competitiveness[2] - The focus is on fostering original innovation and integrating technological and industrial innovation[2] Group 3: Economic Structure and Industry - The session stressed the importance of a robust real economy, advocating for a focus on intelligent, green, and integrated development[2] - It aims to optimize traditional industries while nurturing emerging and future industries to build a modern industrial system[2] - Manufacturing is identified as the backbone of the real economy, essential for national economic stability[2] Group 4: Domestic Demand and Economic Circulation - Expanding domestic demand is crucial for stable economic growth amid global uncertainties[4] - The meeting called for a strong domestic market and a new development pattern that promotes interaction between supply and demand[4] - Emphasis was placed on boosting consumption and breaking down barriers to a unified national market[4] Group 5: Policy Directions - The meeting provided clear guidance for future development goals and policy directions, which is expected to stabilize market expectations[5] - Key areas for policy focus include real estate and livelihood improvements, with an emphasis on high-quality development in real estate[5] - Macroeconomic policies are expected to continue to support the real economy, with a potential allocation of 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits[5]

Core Points - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) held an expanded meeting on October 24 to convey and implement the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session and General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speech [1][2] - The meeting emphasized the need for the NDRC to take proactive actions to effectively implement major strategic tasks during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on building a modern industrial system and promoting high-level technological self-reliance [1][2] Group 1 - The NDRC is tasked with implementing key work related to the construction of a strong domestic market and high-level socialist market economy [1] - The meeting called for immediate action to study and implement the spirit of the plenary session and to draft the "14th Five-Year Plan" outline [2] - The NDRC aims to ensure that various plans at all levels align and work towards common goals [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent release of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and discussions surrounding it have positively impacted the A-share market, particularly in the aerospace and defense sectors, indicating a significant investment opportunity in these industries [1][8]. Market Performance - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.71% to 3950 points, marking a 10-year high. The Shenzhen Component rose 2.02%, the ChiNext Index increased by 3.57%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index surged by 4.35% [2]. - The aerospace and defense sectors, alongside semiconductor and AI industries, experienced substantial gains, with the aerospace ETF (159227) rising by 2.59% and seeing a trading volume increase of 200% compared to the previous day [2][4]. Investment Trends - The defense and aerospace sectors attracted over 4 billion yuan in net inflows, with the aerospace ETF (159227) seeing a significant increase in its share volume, up by 183.45% year-to-date [8][9]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the goal of becoming a "strong aerospace nation," which is expected to drive substantial growth in the aerospace industry, with an anticipated annual growth rate exceeding 20% during this period [12][9]. Industry Developments - The successful launch of the Long March 5 rocket and the emphasis on technological self-reliance in the recent policy announcements have bolstered market confidence in the aerospace sector [9][12]. - The Chinese military trade is projected to reach 45 billion USD by 2025, with a 30% year-on-year growth, indicating a robust demand for military products and services [14]. Future Outlook - The commercial aerospace market in China is expected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting a market size of 2.3 trillion yuan in 2024 and potentially exceeding 2.5-2.8 trillion yuan in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of over 20% [18][19]. - The upcoming years are anticipated to witness a surge in satellite launches and related services, driven by large-scale satellite constellation projects, which will create a sustained demand for rocket launches and commercial aerospace services [17][19]. Investment Strategy - The aerospace ETF (159227) is highlighted as a viable investment vehicle, providing exposure to both military and commercial aerospace sectors, with a high concentration of key industry players [21][23]. - Historical trends indicate that the aerospace and defense sectors are closely tied to national five-year plans, suggesting that strategic investments in these areas could yield significant returns as policies are implemented and orders are released [20].

文/ 《清华金融评论》 周茗一 中共中央于1 0月2 4日上午1 0时举行新闻发布会，介绍和解读党的二十届 四中全会精神。会议介绍，此次全会最重要的成果，审议通过了中共中央 关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》 ， "十五五"时 期 ， 既 要 乘 势 而 上 ， 又 要 迎 难 而 上 ， 充 分 发 挥 中 国 特 色 社 会 主 义 制 度 优 势、超大规模市场优势、完整产业体系优势、丰富人才资源优势，把各方 面优势转化为高质量发展的实际效能。 党的二十届四中全会最重要的成果，是审议通过了《建议》。《建议》共15个部分、61条、分为三大板块。第一板块是总论，关于"十五五"时期我国发展环 境的总体判断，主要阐述"十四五"时期我国发展取得的重大成就、抓好"十五五"时期经济社会发展的重大意义和总体要求。第二板块为分论，关于"十五 五"时期经济社会发展的指导方针，分领域部署"十五五"时期的战略任务和重大举措。第三板块 "十五五"时期经济社会发展主要目标，关于主要部署坚持和 加强党中央集中统一领导、推进社会主义民主法治建设等任务。 "十五五"时期，既要乘势而上，又要迎难而上 中央财办分管日常工作的副 ...

【环球网综合报道 记者 姜蔼玲 索炎琦 张倩 闫珮云 张江平 李飒】10月23日，中国共产党第二十届中央 委员会第四次全体会议公报发布。公报指出，全会高度评价"十四五"时期我国发展取得的重大成就，指 出了"十五五"时期经济社会发展必须遵循的六大原则，阐明了发展的主要目标，进行了十二项重大部 署。随着"十五五"新征程即将开启，世界的目光正投向北京，多家国际主流媒体对"十五五"蓝图予以关 注与评析。 英国路透社注意到，"十五五"时期中国誓言要建设现代化产业体系，"保持制造业合理比重，构建以先 进制造业为骨干的现代化产业体系"。该媒体评论称，当前国际大背景下，中国在未来将继续寻求更好 的政策平衡。此外，路透社援引经济学人智库高级经济学家徐天辰的话称，公报的亮点之一是提到"投 资于人"。路透社还认为，中国强有力的产业政策已构建起精密的国内供应链体系，并在多个领域占据 全球主导地位。这也使中国在与美国进行贸易竞争时有了更强的信心。 英国《金融时报》关注公报中提到的"科技自立自强水平大幅提高"。《金融时报》援引新加坡国立大学 教授伯特·霍夫曼对公报的评论说，"我认为它有很大的连续性，变化不大。"霍夫曼说，这种对连续性 的 ...