第二件事，据杭州日报报道，特朗普政府突然撤回了此前取消的超过1500名国际学生签证的决定。美国 司法部律师卡里利表示，移民官员已开始着手制定一个新的国际学生签证审查和终止系统，并且在该过 程完成之前，相关机构不会做出进一步的变化或撤销决定。超过100名受影响国际学生联合向美国联邦 法院提起诉讼，要求恢复合法身份并阻止美政府继续实施该政策。美国民权联盟的分支机构代表上述学 生在新罕布什尔州联邦法院提起诉讼。 第三件事，上任即将百日，特朗普的反复多变彻底搞乱了市场。特别是自4月宣布"对等关税"政策以 来，美股大跌、美债被抛售、美元指数同步走软。据报道，自特朗普就职以来，美股大盘指数标普500 下跌了14%，成为美国近百年来最糟糕的总统就任后首季度数据。即便1941年罗斯福第三任期时面临二 战阴云，美股也仅下跌了9%。美国国内的反对之势也愈加明显。最新民调显示，特朗普的公众支持率 已跌至44%，约59%的受访者表示，美国正在全球舞台上丧失信誉。 完整内容查看视频 美国移民律师协会数据显示，自美国总统唐纳德·特朗普1月上任以来，留学生和访问学者信息系统中超 过4700名国际学生的记录被"终止"，导致他们失去合法身份或 ...

Group 1 - China has ceased purchasing U.S. soybeans and corn since mid-January, indicating a strong response to U.S. tariff policies [1][3] - In response to reduced imports from the U.S., China has increased agricultural purchases from Brazil, signing a contract for 2.4 million tons of soybeans to ensure domestic supply stability [3][5] - The U.S. soybean industry is urging the Trump administration to negotiate with China to protect American farmers' interests, as ongoing tariffs could severely harm U.S. agriculture [5] Group 2 - Japan is considering increasing its imports of U.S. soybeans to negotiate trade agreements with the U.S., despite already relying on U.S. soybeans for 65% of its total imports [5][6] - The refusal of the U.S. to issue visas to Chinese diplomats has been criticized by China, highlighting the political tensions and the impact on international relations [6][7] - The U.S. has a high rejection rate of visa applications from the Chinese UN delegation, which has affected China's participation in key discussions [6]

据日经新闻：美国对日本提出的框架草案以对等关税为中心。 ...

Group 1 - The Trump administration is reportedly pressuring other countries to limit trade with China in exchange for tariff exemptions, showcasing a unilateral approach to trade negotiations [1] - The U.S. has imposed tariffs under the guise of "reciprocity," which has been criticized as a form of economic coercion and unilateral bullying [1][4] - The U.S. military is heavily reliant on Chinese exports for critical materials, such as gallium and germanium, which are essential for advanced military technology like the F-35 fighter jet [3] Group 2 - China's response to U.S. tariffs has included significant retaliatory measures, impacting U.S. agricultural markets, particularly with a 25% tariff on soybeans leading to an 18% drop in prices [3] - The Chinese government has issued strong statements regarding the need for equal dialogue with the U.S. and has set clear conditions for negotiations, including respect for China's sovereignty [6] - There is a growing sentiment within the U.S. political landscape questioning the importance of Taiwan, indicating a potential shift in U.S. foreign policy towards the region [8]

美国布鲁金斯学会最新发布的报告称，台湾民众对美国可靠性的认同度持续下滑，认为美国形象"正 面"的受访者比例大降20.8个百分点，认为美国"不可信"或"非常不可信"的比例较上次调查增加13.9个百 分点。 洪奇昌认为，受关税政策冲击，台湾社会"疑美"民意上升是必然的。在台湾对美持续加大投资的形势 下，美国仍要对台加征高关税，自然引发岛内对美国产生疑虑。 新华社台北4月30日电（记者杨晓静、刘斐）连日来，台湾多家机构举行座谈会，探讨美国政策"不可预 测"及所谓"对等关税"等给台湾带来的影响。专家学者普遍认为，美方的种种作为，令台湾社会"疑 美"民意上升。 台湾"对外关系协会"29日举办的座谈会上，岛内学界、涉外事务相关人士普遍认为，美国当前的政 策"让世界陷入混乱"。 台湾产经建研社理事长洪奇昌表示，美国政府对外发起的关税战撕裂全球经济体系，也严重影响美国信 誉，而大陆的应对则更加理性、负责。 台湾东吴大学教授林碧炤表示，美国政府抛出的所谓"对等关税"直接冲击台湾股市、外销订单、货物进 口等多个领域，影响到每个人的切身利益，导致岛内"疑美"民意上升。 台湾机构民调发现，民众担心美国关税政策影响台湾经济，也对民进党 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the critical importance of agriculture in the upcoming WTO Ministerial Conference (MC14) in March 2026, highlighting the need for tangible progress in agricultural negotiations due to the fragile global food security situation [3][4]. Group 1: Agricultural Negotiations and Global Food Security - WTO members reaffirmed that agriculture remains a priority, especially in light of the alarming global food security status [3]. - The FAO Food Price Index averaged 127.1 points in March 2025, a 6.9% increase year-on-year, driven primarily by rising meat and vegetable oil prices [3]. - The increase in the vegetable oil price index was 3.7% month-on-month and 23.9% year-on-year, attributed to strong global import demand [3]. Group 2: Concerns Over Trade Practices - China expressed concerns about the impact of "countervailing tariffs" imposed by certain members, which undermine WTO foundations and disrupt global economic order [7][8]. - The Chinese delegation criticized the U.S. for its unilateral and protectionist measures, arguing that such actions harm developing countries and threaten the success of MC14 [8][10]. - Canada and Australia echoed similar sentiments, warning against actions that could weaken existing trade rules and emphasizing the need for a rules-based trading system [12][13]. Group 3: Diverse Perspectives from Member States - The EU highlighted the urgent need for practical solutions to address global food security, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where a significant portion of the world's food-insecure population resides [13]. - India raised concerns about the existing subsidy rules favoring developed countries and called for more flexible agricultural support mechanisms to ensure food security and livelihoods [14]. - Russia advocated for updating agricultural rules to enhance food availability and affordability, stressing the importance of considering the interests of all market participants [12].

中方表示，对当前一个成员通过征收所谓的"对等关税"破坏WTO基础、违反WTO规则和扰乱全球经济 秩序的情况表示关切。 2026年3月，世贸组织（WTO）将在喀麦隆雅温得举行第十四届部长级会议（MC14），各方希望能在 该会议上能切实推进农业谈判。 所谓"对等关税"破坏WTO基础 此次，中方表示，对当前一个成员通过征收所谓的"对等关税"破坏WTO基础、违反WTO规则和扰乱全 球经济秩序的情况表示关切。 中方表示，这些措施将对发展中国家造成巨大伤害，也将给MC14成功蒙上阴影。中方指出，在此背景 下，各成员应携手应对挑战。 这是2天内中方第二次在WTO作出这一表述。 第一财经从权威信源处获悉，当地时间30日，WTO成员在相关会议上重申，农业仍是重中之重。同 时，鉴于全球粮食安全状况"脆弱得令人震惊"，并考虑到当前动荡的国际和贸易环境，各成员方强调需 要在第MC14上取得切实进展和务实成果。 根据联合国粮食及农业组织发布的粮农组织食品价格指数显示，2025年3月，粮农组织食品价格指数平 均为127.1点，比去年同期高出6.9%。其中主要上涨因素来源于肉类及植物油价格。譬如，3月粮农组织 植物油价格指数3月环比上涨3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impact of tariffs on China's manufacturing sector, as indicated by a decline in the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and other economic indicators, while also noting government responses to stabilize the economy [3][4][7]. Economic Indicators - In April 2025, China's manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, down from 50.5%, signaling a contraction in the manufacturing sector [4]. - The construction business activity index was at 51.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, while the services business activity index was at 50.1%, down 0.2 percentage points [4]. - The production index fell to 49.8% from 52.6%, and the new orders index decreased to 49.2%, with new export orders plummeting to 44.7%, reflecting significant demand contraction [4][5]. Tariff Impact - The article notes that the effects of tariffs are fully transmitted to manufacturing enterprises, with a substantial year-on-year decrease of 45% in container orders shipped from China to the U.S. by mid-April [5]. - The export container price index for the route from China to the U.S. West Coast fell by 9.7% month-on-month [5]. Price Trends - The PMI price index saw a significant decline, with the factory price index at 44.8% and the raw material purchase price index at 47.9%, both down from previous levels [5]. - Commodity prices also fell, with Brent crude oil averaging $64.37 per barrel (down 11%), LME copper at $9,487.5 per ton (down 5.5%), and iron ore futures at 709 yuan per ton (down 6.7%) [5]. Inventory and Procurement - The procurement volume index dropped to 46.3% from 51.8%, indicating a significant reduction in purchasing activity [6]. - Raw material inventory index decreased to 47.0%, and finished goods inventory index fell to 47.3%, reflecting a contraction in inventory levels [6]. Import Trends - The import PMI recorded 43.4%, down 4.1 percentage points, influenced by reduced imports from the U.S. due to retaliatory tariffs and decreased demand for foreign goods [6]. Government Response - The Politburo meeting signaled three key strategies: maintaining flexible domestic reserve policies, emphasizing stability in employment and market expectations, and accelerating the implementation of existing policies [7]. - The government is expected to expedite the issuance and use of bonds, focusing on technology, consumption, and foreign trade [7]. Investment Outlook - The article suggests a favorable outlook for sectors related to new productive forces and consumer sectors supported by policy, advocating for a "dumbbell strategy" combining dividends and hard technology [8]. - A potential reduction in reserve requirements by 25-50 basis points and a possible interest rate cut of around 20 basis points in the coming months are anticipated, with 10-year government bond yields expected to drop to 1.5% [8].

日本央行行长植田和男：包括我在内的委员会成员普遍认为，对等关税不会出现任何极端。 ...

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices experienced a significant drop, influenced by signals from Saudi Arabia indicating a willingness to accept lower oil prices, alongside disappointing U.S. economic data [1][12]. Economic Data Summary - The ADP report indicated that U.S. private sector employment increased by only 62,000 in April, the smallest gain since July 2024, significantly below the expected 115,000 and the previous month's 155,000 [5]. - Average wages grew by 4.5% year-over-year, slightly slowing from March, while job switchers saw a wage increase from 6.7% to 6.9% [7]. - The U.S. GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3% in Q1, a stark contrast to the average growth rate of about 3% over the past two years, attributed to companies stockpiling imports to avoid rising costs [7]. Stock Market Performance - On the last trading day of April, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 141.74 points (0.35%) to 40,669.36, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 14.98 points (0.09%) to 17,446.34, and the S&P 500 increased by 8.23 points (0.15%) to 5,569.06 [3][4]. - For April, the Dow and S&P 500 both recorded declines of 3.17% and 0.76%, respectively, marking their third consecutive month of losses, while the Nasdaq saw a slight increase of 0.85% [4]. Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices saw a sharp decline, with Brent crude dropping nearly 4% and WTI crude falling over 4% during trading [1][9]. - Saudi Arabia's potential policy shift suggests a move towards increasing production and expanding market share, moving away from previous strategies of significant production cuts [12]. - OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in May, which is higher than market expectations, indicating a flexible approach to adjust production based on market conditions [12][13].