美联储主席鲍威尔：绝大多数政策制定者认为今年晚些时候降息是合适的。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：如果通胀、劳动力市场强劲，可能推迟降息。 ...

英国央行副行长拉姆斯登：如果证据显示通胀将低于目标，降息的速度可以加快。 ...

黄金重挫连破两道关键支撑，鲍威尔透露未做好降息准备；对冲基金拥挤押注美元崩盘，创纪录空头仓 位等待爆雷？投行预期路径出现罕见分歧，黄金和美元正在迎来多空"裁决">> 相关链接 ...

英国央行副行长拉姆斯登：劳动力市场为降息提供了充分有力的依据。 ...

美联储哈玛克：目前没有任何紧迫的理由降息。 ...

Group 1 - The Iranian-Israeli ceasefire has alleviated concerns about closing the Strait, leading to a significant drop in oil prices and a surge in the stock market [1] - The market anticipates a 25% probability of a rate cut in July, up from 21%, with a 60% probability for September [3] - Financial sectors, including brokerage and insurance, are benefiting from policy expectations, pushing indices to new short-term highs [4] Group 2 - High growth sectors for Q2 include overseas AI computing, motorcycle exports, and innovative pharmaceuticals, driven by increased demand and capacity expansion [5] - Specific companies showing significant profit growth include Daikin Heavy Industries in offshore wind, Longxin General Motors in motorcycles, and various players in the optical module sector [6] - Storage and lithium battery equipment sectors are showing signs of improvement, although they are categorized as left-side fundamentals, indicating potential for longer recovery times [8] Group 3 - The military industry remains highly unpredictable, with potential order improvements noted but lacking specific company representation [11] - The current stock-bond yield spread is at 6.14%, indicating a higher relative value for stocks compared to historical averages [14]

Group 1 - The ceasefire in the Middle East occurred earlier than expected, with Iran accepting the ceasefire without effective retaliation, leading to a formal announcement by President Trump [3] - The performance of dollar assets aligned with market expectations, with the stock market rebounding and both the Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices rising nearly 1% [3] - The U.S. Treasury bonds also showed a significant rebound, indicating a key recovery signal, while the dollar index experienced a slight decline [3] Group 2 - Following the stock market close, a potential positive development emerged for dollar assets as the Federal Reserve indicated a more dovish stance regarding interest rate cuts in July [3] - The new regulatory vice-chairman of the Federal Reserve, previously a hawkish figure, expressed support for starting rate cuts next month, boosting market sentiment [3] - However, there are concerns regarding the sustainability of the market rally, as solid support for further gains in dollar assets, particularly U.S. stocks, remains uncertain [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2-year yield increasing by 1.5 basis points to 3.846%, the 10-year yield rising by 3.3 basis points to 4.355%, and the 30-year yield up by 4.3 basis points to 4.902% [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to present the monetary policy report to Congress, facing pressure from the Trump administration and some Fed officials advocating for interest rate cuts [3][4] - The Federal Open Market Committee has revised its forecast for the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate for Q4 2025 from 2.8% to 3.1%, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy [4] Group 2 - In the European market, German bond yields mostly increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 5.1 basis points to 2.557%, while Italian and French bond yields also saw upward movements [4] - In the Asia-Pacific market, Japanese bond yields generally increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 2.8 basis points to 1.437% [7] - The U.S. Treasury issued a total of $124 billion in two bond offerings, including $55 billion in 6-week bills and $69 billion in 2-year notes [7]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, Bostic, indicates that there is room and time to observe how tariff policies evolve, suggesting a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - A single interest rate cut of 25 basis points is expected by the end of 2025 [1] - Inflation remains a risk factor that could influence future monetary policy decisions [1]