最新行情数据显示，周三亚盘，现货白银首次站上72美元/盎司关口，今年累涨超43美元，涨幅接近 150%。而当前，国际油价交投在60美元/桶附近。 剑桥大学的政治经济学家、约翰内斯堡高级研究所的高级研究员约翰·拉普利（John Rapley）周二在英 国深度评论网站UnHerd上发表了题为《白银暴涨或引发八十年代式经济衰退》（Silver boom could lead to Eighties-style recession）的文章。他解释了银价本轮暴涨的根本逻辑，并提醒人们警惕可能随之而来 的灾难性后果。 Rapley在文章中表示，尽管白银涨势已经持续了一段时间，但今年的两个关键节点，令这波涨势驶入了 快车道。首先是美联储主席鲍威尔8月在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的讲话，释放出美联储将转向更宽 松货币政策的信号。其次是纽约联储主席威廉姆斯11月的讲话，为美联储12月降息铺平了道路。在两人 讲话间隔期间，白银上涨了25%；而在威廉姆斯讲话后的短时间内，白银又飙升了40%。 市场传递的信号似乎十分明确：交易员们押注，在财政赤字飙升的西方国家，央行将通过印钞的方式稀 释债务。为了规避法定货币贬值带来的风险，投资者纷纷 ...

12月23日，上海黄金交易所发布《关于继续加强近期市场风险控制工作的通知》。《通知》显示，贵金属价格波 动剧烈。请各会员提高风险防范意识，继续做好风险应急预案，维护市场平稳运行。同时，提示投资者做好风险 防范工作，合理控制仓位，理性投资。 今年，黄金成为资本市场上表现最亮眼的资产之一。有数据显示，12月23日，COMEX黄金价格突破4500美元/盎 司，相较年初上涨约70%。 在国际金价的推动下，零售黄金克价也水涨船高，年初大几百元克价的黄金首饰到了年中不仅突破千元大关，临 近年底更是接近了1500元的关口。12月24日，周大福黄金饰品克价达到1410元/克，周生生报1411元/克。 分析人士表示，本轮金价上涨，主要由于市场普遍预期明年美联储将会延续宽松的货币政策。而在美国国内，由 于美国财政纪律受到冲击正在成为既定事实，这放大了黄金作为终极避险资产的价值。此外，地缘局势紧张，进 一步提升了黄金的避险吸引力。 世界国际货币基金的公开数据显示，尽管2025年黄金价格上涨幅度已经超过了60%，但各国需求保持强劲，黄金 在全球央行储备资产中的占比已经升至26%，这也成了黄金市场价格上涨的重要推手。 国际金价延续此前 ...

2025年颠覆了以往熟悉的收益格局。加密货币陷入了长时间的下跌和盘整阶段，最终沦为表现最差的资产之一。与此同时，传统 资产却意外地成为年度最大赢家。白银和黄金的收益异常出色，而美国股指也稳步保持上涨势头。这种分化暴露出一个关键的行 业问题：2025年，加密货币失去了其作为防御性资产甚至另类资产的地位，重新回到了高风险资产的行列。 贵金属、美股"争夺"资金，加密货币2025年"虎头蛇尾" 2025年，贵金属表现最为强劲，加剧了与加密货币争夺笔资金的竞争——这些资金在不确定时期寻求避险。白银价格全年上涨约 140%，黄金价格上涨约70%，均创下历史新高。这波上涨行情具有结构性：对宽松货币政策和地缘政治风险的预期，促使投资者 转向那些具有简单保值功能的资产。 在普遍的不确定性下，投资者越来越倾向于选择那些历史悠久、监管清晰且流动性高的投资工具。可及性也发挥了作用：黄金和 白银可以通过交易所交易产品(包括ETF)轻松购买，而在数字领域，与实物资产挂钩的代币化产品——RWA解决方案——则仍在发 展。这降低了部分投资者的准入门槛，并支撑了对贵金属的需求。 在供应有限的背景下，工业需求(尤其是太阳能和电动汽车的需求)进一步 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in silver and gold prices, with silver reaching a historic high of $70 per ounce, surpassing the price of crude oil [1] - Key triggers for the surge in silver prices include signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding a shift to loose monetary policy and comments from New York Fed President John Williams that laid the groundwork for a potential rate cut in December [1] - The market is signaling that traders are betting on central banks in Western countries resorting to money printing to dilute debt, leading investors to seek assets not controlled by any central bank or government [2] Group 2 - The current economic stability relies heavily on public trust in the value of currency, which is now showing signs of erosion, prompting central banks to be cautious [3] - The last time silver prices were significantly higher than oil was in the early 1980s, which preceded a period of severe inflation, rising interest rates, market crashes, and economic recession [3] - The potential for a fiscal crisis is becoming increasingly realistic, as the dynamics of currency devaluation relative to gold could impact industrial metals and the broader economic supply chain [2][3]

（央视财经《第一时间》）美国彭博社报道，地缘政治紧张局势加剧、市场预期美联储进一步降息是黄 金价格飙升的主要原因。据交易员预计，一系列美国经济数据上周公布后，美联储将在2026年降息两 次。与此同时，美国总统特朗普一直主张采取更为宽松的货币政策。利率下行通常会给不用支付利息的 贵金属提供支撑。 近几周来，地缘政治持续紧张同样增强黄金和白银的避险吸引力。彭博社22日预期，黄金和白银都将迎 来自1979年以来最强劲年度涨幅。受各国央行增持以及资金流入ETF推动，金价今年已飙升约三分之 二。数据显示，黄金支持的ETF已连续5周资金流入增加。世界黄金协会的数据表明，除5月外，今年这 些基金的总持仓量逐月增加。 除央行外，投资者同样在金价上涨中发挥重要作用。受"贬值交易"推动，也就是出于对主权债券及其计 价货币价值的担忧，投资者纷纷撤离这些资产。美国《华尔街日报》10月报道，担忧美元等货币前景的 投资者正大举买入黄金等替代性资产。美国投行高盛本月18日发布的研报预期，到2026年年底，金价将 涨至每盎司4900美元。 转载请注明央视财经 编辑：孙艺璇 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - In 2025, precious metals emerged as the biggest winners, while traditional "safe-haven" investments performed poorly amid market turmoil, conflicts, and concerns over an AI bubble [1] - The global economy showed strong growth, with politicians advocating for loose monetary policies, leading to a decline in recession fears and a surge in AI enthusiasm, alongside escalating geopolitical tensions [1] - The commodity index performed poorly due to an oversupply of crude oil, with oil prices dropping by 20% year-on-year, currently at about half of the previous highs [1] Group 2: Defense Sector Performance - For investors concerned about global conflicts, the best investment option was the defense sector, with U.S. aerospace and defense stocks rising by 36% and European counterparts increasing by 55% as Germany and Europe accelerated military rearmament [1] Group 3: Bond and Defensive Asset Performance - Most traditional hedging tools and safe assets underperformed this year, with global "risk-free" government bond indices declining by approximately 1% and total returns slightly exceeding 6% [2] - The Bloomberg Multiverse index, which includes government, supranational, agency, and corporate bonds, saw a price increase of about 1% and total returns close to 7% [2] Group 4: Stock Market Insights - The MSCI All-Country Stock Index's performance was more than double that of government bonds, indicating a strong recovery in the stock market [4] - The S&P 500 index rose by 15% due to the boost from large tech stocks and AI themes, with growth stocks outperforming value stocks by more than double [4] - Defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare, and financials saw gains over 10%, but still lagged behind major indices, while the consumer staples sector had a meager increase of about 2% [4] Group 5: Currency Performance - Traditionally safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc underperformed, with the yen dropping approximately 4% against its major trading partners despite initial gains [7] - The Swiss franc maintained its early-year gains, becoming one of the few standout safe-haven assets alongside gold and silver [7] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 12% during the year's most turbulent months, raising questions about its status as a safe-haven asset [7] Group 6: Volatility and Investment Strategies - Strategies involving options and volatility indices failed to yield profits in 2025, with the VIX closing down 2 points from the beginning of the year [9] - The MOVE index for bond market volatility was less than two-thirds of its initial level, indicating a decline in market volatility [9] - Overall, overly cautious investment strategies did not prove profitable this year [10]

2025 12 18 来源：上期所，价格：元/克，交易单位：1千克/手，成交量、持仓量及变化单位为手单边计算；成交额单位为万元，单边计算 2 元元 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 GO CM rangua 4 .. childer 图片来源：国金期货行情软件 | | 图 3：上期所黄金期货合约行情图 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交割月份 | 前結算 | 今开盘 | 磨层砂 | 磨喉ሉ | 收盘价 | 结算参考价 | 涨跌1 | 涨跌2 | 成交手 | 成交额 | 持仓手/变化 | | | 商品名称:黄金 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2601 | 975.94 | 975.54 | 981.32 | 975.10 | 978.76 | 978.40 | 2.82 | 2.46 | 1 ...

央行预计，泰国经济增长将长期低于潜在水平，2026年GDP增速约为1.5%，2027年回升至2.3%，仍落 后于东南亚其他国家。出口在2025年因"抢出口"效应大幅增长后，2026年增速预计明显放缓至0.6%。通 胀方面，受需求疲弱影响，未来数年仍将低于1%—3%的目标区间。尽管降息有助于降低融资成本、缓 解债务压力，但信贷持续收缩，中小企业流动性承压。央行表示，将继续采取宽松货币政策，并密切关 注泰铢升值对经济的影响。 据泰媒报道，泰国央行货币政策委员会一致决定将政策利率下调25个基点至1.25%，以应对经济持续放 缓。这是自2024年10月以来的第五次降息，累计降幅达125个基点。央行指出，政治不确定性、泰铢大 幅升值、美国加征关税以及区域性洪灾等因素叠加，对经济构成明显压力，当前经济放缓态势较此前更 加清晰。 ...

2025年的牛市，绝对是贵金属，黄金屡次创历史新高，白银、铂金同样如此。显然贵金属的亮眼表现，让大多数机构始料未及，不少大机构连夜为研报"打 补丁"，不过仍然赶不上国际黄金价格的上涨趋势，黄金成投资界"最靓的仔"。 昨日，国际黄金受地缘政治紧张局势恶化和市场对美联储明年进一步降息的预期推动，黄金的价格从开盘价4338.60到停盘价4443.69。尤其是今日，开盘同 样疯狂，目前黄金价格最高点4491.12。这种行情如同4月和10月的逼空拉升手法相似，大概率是在提前消化委内瑞拉事件。 目前，交易员们预计美联储将在2026年降息两次，尽管美国总统特朗普一直主张大幅降息，但上周美国公布的一系列经济数据未能为前景提供更清晰的指 引。对于不支付利息的黄金来说，宽松的货币政策无疑是一大利好。 地缘政治紧张局势也增强了贵金属的避险吸引力。美国加强了对委内瑞拉的石油封锁，加大了对马杜罗政府的压力，与此同时，乌克兰首次在地中海袭击了 一艘来自俄罗斯"影子船队"的油轮，中东局势也开始紧张。 贵金属市场正在结束一个具有历史意义的一年，黄金将创下1979年以来最大的年度涨幅。黄金价格飙升了约三分之二，这主要得益于各国央行购买量的增加 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the overall market, although there is uncertainty at the end of the year, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. In the medium and long - term, the idea of buying on dips is the main strategy [4]. - Different commodities have different market trends and investment strategies. For example, precious metals are expected to show strong performance; some metals like copper and aluminum have certain price support but also face resistance; and some agricultural products like sugar are expected to be bearish in the long - term but with short - term uncertainties [7][11][86]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: Li Qiang plans major projects; the Ministry of Commerce imposes temporary anti - subsidy measures on EU dairy products; spot gold hits $4400/oz, up nearly 68% this year; Goldman Sachs expects a bull market in Chinese stocks next year, with corporate earnings potentially growing 14% in 2026 and 12% in 2027, and the stock market may rise 38% by the end of 2027 [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the end of the year, some funds cash in on profits, and the market faces uncertainty. But in the long - run, it is advisable to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts had different declines; the 12 - month LPR remained unchanged; the central bank issued 40 billion yuan of 6 - month RMB central bank bills in Hong Kong; there was a net withdrawal of 6.36 billion yuan in liquidity on Monday [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The unchanged LPR is in line with expectations. The economy has stable production but weak service and demand. There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts. The bond market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand relationship repair and rebound [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.60%, silver rose 2.30%; COMEX gold and silver had corresponding prices; the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts changed, and the Bank of Japan's policy statement affected the market [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The release of overseas central bank policy risks boosts market sentiment. Gold and silver prices are expected to be strong. It is recommended to hold long positions, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver [7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The unchanged LPR and strong precious metals prices pushed copper prices up. LME inventory decreased, and domestic inventories and premiums had corresponding changes [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's loose policy and strong precious metals support copper prices. But there is resistance due to the higher - than - expected 2026 copper concentrate processing fee and weak November consumption. The price is expected to oscillate [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Domestic aluminum inventories increased, and prices oscillated down. LME inventory was flat, and premiums had corresponding changes [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overall inventory is relatively low, and there is support from overseas supply disruptions and the precious metals market. But there are pressures from tariff hikes and the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate and rise [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc also had a price increase. There were corresponding changes in inventories, premiums, and other indicators [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The shortage of domestic zinc ore is expected to ease. The price is expected to be weak in the medium - term but may rise in the short - term due to macro - sentiment [14]. Lead - **Market Information**: Shanghai lead index rose, and LME lead also increased. There were changes in inventories, premiums, and other aspects [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic lead supply is tightening, and the price is expected to be strong in a wide - range in the short - term [15]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded sharply. Spot premiums and cost - end prices had corresponding changes [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure is still large, but the bottom may have been reached. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [17]. Tin - **Market Information**: Shanghai tin main contract price declined. The smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi had different production situations, and the demand was weak [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand is weak, and the supply is expected to improve. The price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [19]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index and futures contract price of carbonate lithium increased [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure is relieved, and the bullish trend is not over. It is recommended to wait and see or buy options lightly [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index declined, and there were changes in positions and premiums [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to decline, and the over - capacity pattern of alumina is hard to change. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price rose, and there were changes in positions and spot prices [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The reduction of Indonesia's nickel ore production target affects the market. The actual spot trading is light. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to policy implementation [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated. There were changes in positions, trading volume, and prices [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is firm, and there are supply disruptions. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [26]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased. There were changes in positions, spot prices, and inventories [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel market oscillates. The terminal demand is weak, and the steel price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The winter storage willingness is not strong [29]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose. There were changes in positions and spot prices [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment decreased, and the demand for iron water declined. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill inventory was at a low level. The price is expected to oscillate [31]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price declined, and the inventory increased. The soda ash main contract price also declined, and the inventory increased [32][34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass demand is weak, and the market is expected to oscillate narrowly. The soda ash demand is weak, and it is advisable to short - sell [33][34]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon increased. There were changes in spot prices and premiums [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market macro - sentiment is stable. The future market is affected by the black market trend, cost, and supply. Attention should be paid to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [39]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon main contract price declined. The polysilicon main contract price also declined. There were changes in positions, spot prices, and inventories [40][42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industrial silicon supply may decrease, and the demand is weak. The polysilicon production is expected to decline, and the demand is weak. The prices are expected to fluctuate [41][43]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price oscillated. There are different views on the market from bulls and bears. The tire enterprise operating rates and inventories had corresponding changes [45][46][47]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to operate short - term and hedge partially [50]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures and related refined oil futures prices increased. The European ARA refined oil inventories had different changes [51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [52]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot and main futures prices of methanol had corresponding changes [53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market will consolidate. The port pressure remains, and it is recommended to wait and see [54]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot and main futures prices of urea had corresponding changes [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand has improved, and the supply is expected to decline seasonally. It is recommended to buy on dips [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene increased. There were changes in premiums, inventories, and operating rates [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has room for repair. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit before the first quarter of next year [58]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract price declined. There were changes in spot prices, costs, operating rates, and inventories [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short - sell in the medium - term [61]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract price declined. There were changes in supply, demand, inventories, and profits [62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is expected to improve, but the inventory is high. Attention should be paid to the risk of price rebound [63]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract price increased. There were changes in operating rates, inventories, and processing fees [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply has high maintenance, and the demand will decline. It is advisable to go long on dips [65]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract price increased. There were changes in operating rates, inventories, and valuations [66][67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PX inventory is expected to increase slightly in December. It is advisable to go long on dips [68]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price declined. There were changes in spot prices, operating rates, and inventories [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE valuation has limited downward space. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread [70]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price declined. There were changes in spot prices, operating rates, and inventories [71]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is seasonally weak. The inventory pressure is high. The market may be supported in the first quarter of next year [72]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog prices fluctuated. The demand after the Winter Solstice decreased but still supported the price [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand has decreased marginally, but the supply is large. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds in the short - term and pay attention to the long - term support [75]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg prices were mostly stable. The supply was normal, and the market trading was tepid [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot price is expected to squeeze the premium. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds in the short - term and pay attention to the long - term pressure [77]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price increased. The domestic soybean meal price increased, and there were changes in inventories and压榨量 [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import cost has a bottom, and the soybean meal is expected to oscillate [80]. Oils - **Market Information**: The Malaysian palm oil production and export data had different changes. The domestic oil prices rebounded [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The palm oil supply is large in the short - term but may reverse in the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to operate based on high - frequency data [82]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The spot prices of different regions had corresponding changes. The import and production data of different countries had different changes [83][84][85]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus. It is advisable to be bearish in the long - term but wait and see in the short - term [86]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price increased. The spot price increased, and there were changes in import, inventory, and operating rate data [87][88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand is not bad after the peak season. The price is unlikely to have a unilateral trend [89].