Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The Politburo meeting set a positive tone for the second half of the year, with a clear work stance and a plan to implement an active fiscal policy and a loose monetary policy, continuing to promote policy combinations such as anti - involution and consumption promotion. The Fed maintained interest rates, and Powell's hawkish stance strengthened the US dollar index, pressuring the stock and bond markets. The current market has intensified long - short competition, and the overall adjustment space of stock indices is limited. Investors can choose the right time to layout long positions [1][3] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - **Domestic Policy**: The Politburo meeting in July judged the current economic situation more positively than the April meeting. The steady - growth policy system focuses on releasing consumption potential, standardizing market competition, optimizing industrial structure, and preventing systemic risks, and makes systematic arrangements in areas such as fiscal and monetary policies, real estate, and the capital market [1] - **Overseas Policy**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5%, and Powell said it was too early to cut rates in September. The current interest rate level is appropriate considering uncertainties in tariffs and inflation [1] - **Stock Index Trends**: In the spot market, A - share indices diverged, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.17% and the ChiNext Index down 1.62%. Industry sectors showed mixed performance. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 1.8 trillion yuan. Overseas, US stock indices also had mixed results, with the Dow down 0.38% and the Nasdaq up 0.15% [2] - **Futures Market**: In the futures market, the basis of IH, IF, and IC declined, and the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased simultaneously [2] Strategy - Due to the Fed's interest - rate decision and the Politburo meeting's policy orientation, the market's long - short game is intensifying. The overall adjustment space of stock indices is limited, and investors can choose the right time to layout long positions [3] Macro - economic Charts - Charts show the relationships between the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, RMB exchange rate, and A - share trends and styles [10][8] Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: On July 30, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17% to 3615.72 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.77%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.62%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.02%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.21%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.65%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.82% [13] - **Other Indicators**: Charts show the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [14] Futures Market Tracking Charts - **Position and Volume**: The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased. For example, the trading volume of IF increased by 40,368 to 138,031, and the open interest increased by 15,183 to 274,703 [15] - **Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM showed different changes. For example, the current - month contract basis of IF was - 4.24, a change of - 5.02 [41] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The inter - delivery spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM also had various changes. For example, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts of IF was - 10.60, a change of + 0.80 [48]

日前，土耳其中央银行宣布将基准利率大幅下调300个基点至43%，超出市场预期。这是土央行今年4月 因政治局势和金融市场动荡被迫加息后再次重启降息周期。市场普遍认为，通胀压力缓解及汇率企稳为 土央行继续实施宽松货币政策创造了有利条件。 土耳其经济学家、财经评论员阿塔巴伊指出，虽然土通胀率或将持续下降，但仍远高于全球平均水平。 此外，经常账户赤字反映出口竞争力不足，且资本流入易受国际环境波动影响，未来容易引发金融风 险。 土耳其伊斯坦布尔科奇大学经济学教授德米拉尔普指出，当前土经济信心尚未恢复，核心原因在于政治 紧张局势依然存在，这成为央行推进货币政策计划的最大障碍之一。 穆迪在其最新报告中指出，土经济增长前景仍受到政治和结构性风险的制约。 （文章来源：经济日报） 土耳其财政部长穆罕默德·希姆谢克日前表示，当前关键金融指标如外汇储备和股市已恢复至3月中旬水 平，反映市场信心逐步回稳。土央行也强调对通胀持续回落趋势"信心增强"，里拉汇率稳定为宽松政策 提供动力。 数据显示，土耳其6月通胀率降至35%，较去年5月约75%的峰值显著回落，虽然仍处高位，但其持续回 落显示此前的紧缩货币政策初见成效。土央行预测，2025年 ...

金十数据7月30日讯，DHF Capital的博克尔在一份报告中说，如果美联储软化语气，美国国债收益率可 能会下降。这位首席商务官表示："债券市场也可能对利率预期的任何意外或快速变化做出反应。"他表 示，市场普遍预计美联储将维持利率不变，不过有关美联储可能在9月份降息的猜测越来越多。博克尔 表示，市场也在关注美联储声明的措辞，以及美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼是否会持不同意见，他们已此前暗 示倾向于宽松的货币政策。 若美联储措辞软化 美国国债收益率或会下跌 ...

新华财经伊斯坦布尔7月29日电（记者许万虎）日前，土耳其中央银行宣布将基准利率大幅下调300个基 点至43%，超出市场预期。这是土央行今年4月因政治局势和金融市场动荡被迫加息后再次重启降息周 期。市场普遍认为，通胀压力缓解及汇率企稳为土央行继续实施宽松货币政策创造了有利条件。 土耳其财政部长穆罕默德·希姆谢克日前表示，当前关键金融指标如外汇储备和股市已恢复至3月中旬水 平，反映市场信心逐步回稳。土央行也强调对通胀持续回落趋势"信心增强"，里拉汇率稳定为宽松政策 提供动力。 数据显示，土耳其6月通胀率降至35%，较去年5月约75%的峰值显著回落，虽然仍处高位，但其持续回 落显示此前的紧缩货币政策初见成效。土央行预测，2025年末通胀率将降至24%。 多年来，土耳其一直在努力应对高通胀。2023年6月至2024年3月，土耳其央行收紧货币政策，将基准利 率从8.5%连续上调至50%。受通胀形势阶段性改善影响，土央行于去年12月开始转向宽松政策。今年3 月，土央行将基准利率下调250个基点至42.5%。4月，受国内政治局势和金融市场动荡影响，土央行将 基准利率上调350个基点至46%，结束了短暂的宽松周期。 土央行强 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic outlook for the second half of the year, emphasizing the need for policy support to achieve the annual GDP growth target of 5% after a 5.3% growth in the first half of the year [1][5]. Economic Performance - The actual GDP growth in the first half of the year was 5.3%, with Q1 at 5.4% and Q2 at 5.2%, exceeding the 5% annual target [5][7]. - The GDP deflator index in Q2 fell by 1.2%, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of negative growth, leading to a nominal GDP growth of only 3.9% [5][8]. - The growth was primarily driven by proactive policies and early consumer demand stimulation, particularly through the "trade-in" policy [7][8]. Consumer and Investment Trends - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5% in the first half, with significant growth in categories related to the "trade-in" policy, such as home appliances and furniture [8][11]. - Fixed asset investment grew by only 2.8%, with infrastructure investment up by 4.6% and manufacturing investment by 7.5%, while real estate investment declined by 11.2% [11][19]. - Equipment investment surged by 17.3%, contributing 86% to overall investment growth [11][19]. Export Dynamics - Exports showed resilience, with a 5.9% increase in dollar terms, despite a 10.9% decline in exports to the U.S. [15][19]. - The diversification of exports helped mitigate the impact of reduced U.S. demand, with significant growth in exports to Africa, ASEAN, and the EU [15][19]. Economic Concerns - Despite positive data, there are concerns about potential weaknesses in the economy, particularly in consumer spending and manufacturing investment in the second half [19][20]. - The "trade-in" policy's impact on retail sales is expected to diminish in the latter half of the year due to lower funding and higher base effects from last year [19][20]. - Real estate sales and prices are showing signs of weakness, with new housing sales down by 3.5% and sales revenue down by 5.5% in the first half [23][24]. Policy Outlook - The article anticipates that the government will focus on targeted policies rather than large-scale stimulus, given the strong economic foundation laid in the first half [27][28]. - Potential policy directions include optimizing existing programs like the "trade-in" initiative and addressing restrictions on consumer spending [29][30]. - Infrastructure investment is expected to be a key area of focus, with ongoing projects and new financing tools being introduced to support technology and consumption [30][31]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is expected to remain supportive, with potential for minor adjustments in reserve requirements and interest rates [34][35]. - The article suggests that the central bank may take a cautious approach to monetary easing, focusing on maintaining stability in the currency exchange rate [35][36]. Structural Issues - The article highlights that the main challenges facing the Chinese economy are structural rather than total output-related, emphasizing the need for a focus on domestic and international circulation [26][38].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - Last week, the gold price soared and then dropped significantly. The New York gold price fell back to $3,338 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold price dropped to 773 yuan per gram [3] 2. Interest Rate Expectations - On July 24, Trump met with Fed Chairman Powell to discuss interest rates. Powell and most Fed policymakers have been cautious about rate cuts due to concerns about the lagged impact of Trump's tariff hikes on inflation [4] - According to the CME "FedWatch" tool, the market expects a 95.9% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July and a 58.4% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September. Traders expect the Fed to cut rates more aggressively next year, with a projected 76 - basis - point cut [4] 3. Tariff Situation - Trump said he would impose simple tariffs of 15% to 50% on most other countries but would be willing to abandon the tariff clause if major countries open their markets to the US. He also mentioned sending nearly 200 tariff letters and reaching tariff agreements with Japan and the EU (15% tariff on the EU) [7] - Overall, Trump's tariff war has less impact than expected, and the market has adapted. The US stock market has continued to rise, and the risk - aversion sentiment has declined [7] 4. Economic Data - As of the week ending July 19, the number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 4,000 to 217,000, falling for the sixth consecutive week, the longest consecutive decline since 2022. This reduces the urgency for the Fed to cut rates in the short term, causing the US dollar index to rebound and putting pressure on the gold price [7] 5. Geopolitical Situation - Sino - US relations have eased, and the impact of the global tariff war has weakened. The new conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has limited impact on the financial market due to their small economic scale and the possibility of peace talks [7] 6. Market Outlook - Risk - assets such as the stock market are favored again, and the risk - aversion sentiment has declined, putting pressure on the gold price. The gold price on the weekly chart has soared and then dropped significantly, lacking upward momentum in the short term and returning to a box - consolidation pattern [7]

新华财经伊斯坦布尔7月25日电（记者许万虎）土耳其央行24日将主要政策利率大幅下调300个基点至 43%，超过市场预期。这是自3月以来土央行首次下调基准利率，意味着此前因金融和政治动荡而中断 的降息周期重启。 分析人士指出，在主要反对派政治人物被捕引发市场剧烈反应后，如今局势趋稳，为政策放松创造了空 间。此次降息可能表明央行政策制定者认为市场已足够稳定，可以重新推进宽松政策。 此次降息决定公布后，里拉兑美元和欧元汇率基本保持稳定。土耳其央行最新调查显示，此次降息幅度 比市场平均预期高出约50个基点。与此同时，伊斯坦布尔BIST100基准股指一度上涨1%。 虽然重启降息周期，但土央行在声明中表示："在实现价格稳定之前，紧缩的货币政策立场不变，未来 将通过抑制国内需求、推动里拉实际升值和改善通胀预期，来支持通胀回落进程。" 土央行强调，未来是否继续降息，将"以通胀前景为重点，逐次会议审慎评估"。 凯投宏观（Capital Economics）新兴市场经济学家尼古拉斯·法尔表示，尚不清楚土耳其央行为何采取如 此激进的降息行动，但从声明来看，政策制定者"对通胀压力减弱更加有信心"，也"可能受益于汇率压 力减轻带来的鼓 ...

日本东京7月核心通胀率意外放缓至2.9%，增加了日本央行下周维持宽松货币政策不变的可能性，加息议程或将继续推迟。 7月25日，日本官方数据显示，东京7月核心消费者价格指数（不含生鲜食品）同比上涨2.9%，低于6月的3.1%涨幅，符合Quick调查的经济学家一 致预期。作为全国通胀趋势的先行指标，这一数据为下周即将召开的日本央行政策会议提供了重要参考。 | 07:30 | . | 日本7月东京CPI(除生鲜食品及能源)同比 | ★★★ | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | (ii) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 07:30 ● | | 日本7月东京CPI(除生鲜食品)同比 | ★★★ | 2.9% | 3% | 3.1% | ( गा | | 07:30 ● | | 日本7月东京CPI同比 | ★★★ | 2.9% | 3% | 3.1% | (ili | 然而，尽管东京整体通胀有所放缓，但食品价格压力仍在加剧，剔除生鲜食品的食品价格涨幅从6月的7.2%扩大至7.4%。这一趋势反映出日本消 费者仍面临严峻的生活成本压力。 民间 ...

Economic Growth - Malaysia's GDP grew by 4.5% year-on-year in Q2, exceeding market expectations and slightly higher than the previous quarter's 4.4% [1] - The growth was primarily driven by strong domestic consumption, with significant contributions from the services and agriculture sectors [1] Sector Performance - The services sector was the main driver of economic growth in Q2, growing by 5.3% compared to 5.0% in Q1, supported by wholesale and retail trade, transportation, and business services [1] - Agriculture showed notable improvement with a 2.0% growth in Q2, up from 0.6% in Q1, largely due to increased palm oil production [1] - The construction industry continued its strong growth, achieving an 11% increase in Q2, despite a slowdown from 14.2% in Q1, driven by non-residential and specialized construction activities [2] - Manufacturing growth slowed to 3.8% in Q2 from 4.1% in Q1, but key sectors like electrical, electronic, and food processing remained robust [2] - The mining and quarrying sector faced challenges, contracting by 7.4% in Q2, worsened from a 2.7% decline in Q1, primarily due to falling oil and gas production [2] Domestic Consumption - Strong domestic consumption was a key factor in Q2 economic growth, supported by a stable labor market and low unemployment rates, which bolstered household spending [2] - Government cash assistance programs, such as SARA and STR, provided additional support to household spending, alleviating economic pressure on families [3] Trade and Policy Challenges - Despite exceeding growth expectations, Malaysia's economy faces challenges from global trade uncertainties, with exports unexpectedly declining by 3.5% in June [3] - Potential tariffs from the U.S. on Malaysian exports, particularly a proposed 25% tariff effective August 1, could significantly impact the export market [3] - The slowdown in major export markets may also affect export demand, alongside domestic policy adjustments that could pressure economic growth [3] Future Outlook - The central bank anticipates a slowdown in economic growth in the second half of the year but expects the annual growth rate to exceed 4.5% [4] - Continued domestic demand growth and government policy support are expected to provide some buffer for the economy [4] - The central bank is closely monitoring trade and tariff developments and is likely to implement further interest rate cuts later in the year to support economic growth [4]

金十数据7月24日讯，据知情人士透露，欧洲央行内部主张再次降息的决策者正面临愈发艰难的阻力。 一些官员表示，9月维持利率不变正成为基本情景。消息人士指出，支持进一步宽松的官员需要为自己 的立场提供充足理由，而反对者则不再需要解释立场。欧洲央行周四宣布自一年多来首次暂停降息，等 待欧美贸易关系的更多明确信号。行长拉加德表示，目前通胀已回到2%目标，经济运行亦符合或略优 于预期，央行处于"观望模式"。在拉加德表态之后，市场明显下调了对9月降息的预期。当前交易员预 计9月降息概率约为25%，低于她发言前的40%。 知情人士：欧洲央行内部鸽派面临阻力 9月基本预期是继续按兵不动 ...