Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic commodities rebounded from low levels, with most varieties seeing an upturn, especially industrial products, while agricultural products showed a volatile trend. The reasons include the deadlock in Russia-Ukraine negotiations and US sanctions leading to a sharp rebound in oil prices, the increasing expectation of domestic policy intensification, and the weak US inflation data leading to a growing expectation of Fed rate cuts [3]. - The Sino-US trade relationship is at a critical stage with both tension and dialogue. The future direction depends on the ongoing consultations and political decisions in subsequent meetings between the two leaders [3]. - The US CPI in September was weaker than market expectations, and core inflation slowed month-on-month. Employment will be the main factor for the Fed to cut rates in the future, and inflation may not be an effective macro factor [3]. - China's Q3 GDP growth rate dropped to 4.8% due to the slowdown in investment, consumption, and employment. Although China's actual economic growth in the first three quarters was 5.2%, achieving the annual target requires a 4.4% growth in Q4. There is still room for incremental policies in Q4 [3]. - The PBOC kept the one-year and five-year LPR unchanged in October. Small and medium-sized banks are still under great pressure on net interest margins, and it is expected that the intensity of growth-stabilizing policies will increase in Q4, and there is still room for monetary policy easing [3]. - Risk appetite has increased, and commodities may rebound in the short term due to the easing of Sino-US relations, the opening of the window for incremental policy intensification, the weak US inflation data strengthening the Fed's rate cut prospects, and the uncertainty in geopolitical factors [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - The US Trade Representative's Office launched a 301 investigation into the Phase One Economic and Trade Agreement on October 24, and Sino-US officials held a new round of economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur on October 25 [3]. - The US CPI in September was 3.0% year-on-year (market expectation: 3.1%) and 0.3% month-on-month (market expectation: 0.4%); core CPI was 3.0% year-on-year (market expectation: 3.1%) and 0.2% month-on-month (market expectation: 0.3%) [3]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - China's Q3 GDP growth rate dropped to 4.8%. From January to September, real estate development investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, and infrastructure investment increased by 6.1% year-on-year. To achieve the annual 5% growth target, Q4 GDP needs to grow by 4.4% [3][20]. - The PBOC maintained the one-year and five-year LPR at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively in October. Since October, small and medium-sized banks in various provinces and cities have been intensively lowering or preparing to lower deposit rates [3][23]. PART FOUR: High-Frequency Data Tracking - On October 24, the开工率 of POY, PTA, and PTA in the polyester industry chain was 75%, 89%, and 74% respectively [26]. - The values of some other high-frequency data are also presented in the report, such as the开工率 of the polyester industry chain, blast furnace开工率, and the average wholesale prices of agricultural products [26][27][41].

Group 1 - The overall CPI in the US for September increased by only 0.3% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.4% [2] - The year-on-year CPI growth remained at 3%, also below the expected 3.1% [2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 3% year-on-year, both below expectations, indicating a significant easing of inflationary pressures [2] Group 2 - Following the CPI report, US Treasury yields across all maturities declined, with the 10-year yield dropping to 3.966%, falling below the 4% mark [2] - The market perceives a higher likelihood of the Federal Reserve implementing interest rate cuts in the near term, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut at the upcoming October meeting nearing 100% [2] - The probability of a second rate cut in December has surged to 98.5%, reinforcing the view that the Federal Reserve will adopt a more accommodative stance by year-end [2] Group 3 - The current trading price of silver T+D is above 11350, with a slight increase of 0.28% reported at 11382 yuan/kg [1] - The highest price reached today was 11481 yuan/kg, while the lowest was 11267 yuan/kg, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in silver T+D [1] - Key resistance levels for silver T+D are noted at 11400-11800, with support levels at 10000-11200 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the U.S. September CPI was below expectations, with a moderate increase in prices of import-sensitive consumer goods, while service inflation cooled again, maintaining a stable overall inflation situation [1] Group 1: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The overall inflation environment in the U.S. remains mild, with a notable decline in service inflation [1] - If the U.S. federal government shutdown continues, the Labor Statistics Bureau may miss the sampling window for the October price data [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Outlook - Regardless of whether the next CPI report is released on time, the current mild inflation and weakening employment conditions are expected to reinforce the anticipation of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The tone of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is likely to be dovish, with expectations of two additional rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of the year [1]

Group 1 - The market is anticipating a 99% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, driven by recent CPI data showing a decline in inflation for three consecutive months [1][3] - The U.S. CPI for September increased by 3.0% year-on-year, slightly above the previous value but below market expectations, while core CPI rose only 0.2% month-on-month, indicating a slowdown in inflation [3][4] - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years, prompting discussions of potential rate cuts [4][6] Group 2 - The current A-share market environment is significantly different from last year's "924 market," with the Shanghai Composite Index now above 4000 points and the semiconductor sector's P/E ratio soaring to 119 times [4][6] - The funding structure has shifted from an influx of new capital to a focus on existing capital, with net inflows concentrated in a few leading stocks, indicating a lack of broad market support [6][9] - The market is experiencing notable sector performance divergence, with technology stocks being sensitive to interest rate changes, while bank stocks face pressure due to narrowing net interest margins [6][9] Group 3 - Technical indicators are signaling potential risks, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a divergence in volume and price, suggesting a possible correction [6][7] - To break through the resistance zone of 3950-4000 points, trading volume needs to consistently exceed 2.5 trillion yuan, but current market volume remains around 2.1 trillion yuan [7] - External risks, such as potential inflation rebounds due to tariff policies and ongoing trade tensions, could impact market sentiment despite the Fed's rate cut potentially easing pressure on the RMB [9]

Core Insights - The U.S. inflation data for September indicates persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, but both overall and core inflation metrics fell below expectations, suggesting a potential for gradual interest rate cuts by the Fed [1][6][8] Inflation Data Summary - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month in September, with core CPI increasing by 3% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month [3][4] - Energy prices were the main driver of the price increase, with the energy price index rising by 1.5% month-on-month, and gasoline prices up by 4.1% [3][4] - Core CPI's year-on-year growth rate decreased from 3.1% in August to 3% in September, marking the lowest level since June [3][4] Impact of Tariffs - The analysis indicates that the tariff policies from the Trump administration continue to affect domestic consumption, with clothing prices showing significant increases due to higher tariffs [4][9] - The core inflation metrics reveal a divergence, with service sector inflation cooling down while core goods inflation remains elevated, particularly in categories like clothing and home goods [4][7] Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Outlook - The Fed is likely to face a dilemma as controlled inflation may allow for more policy easing, while tariff-induced cost pressures could slow down the rate of cuts [6][8] - Recent comments from Fed officials suggest a cautious approach to rate cuts, emphasizing the need to balance inflation risks with a softening labor market [7][8] Future Data Uncertainty - The ongoing government shutdown raises concerns about the timely release of economic data, with the potential for the October CPI report to be delayed, complicating policy decisions for the Fed [8][9] - The IMF forecasts that U.S. inflation may rise again starting in the second half of 2025 as tariff impacts become more pronounced, although it expects inflation to return to the Fed's target by 2027 under certain conditions [9]

Inflation Overview - In September, the overall CPI increased by 3.0% year-on-year, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, while the core CPI remained at 3.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from August[2] - Month-on-month, the CPI decreased by 0.3%, a decline of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, while the core CPI rose by 0.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from August[2] Market Implications - The September inflation data is seen as a "light brake," indicating a potential path for two interest rate cuts later this year, especially following the government shutdown[4] - The inflation level remains above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, but the current trend does not suggest a significant acceleration in inflationary pressures[4] Sector Contributions - Food prices rose by 3.1% year-on-year, slightly down from 3.2% in August, with household food prices stable at 2.7%[5] - Energy prices saw a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, a significant rise from 0.4% in August, contributing notably to the overall inflation increase[5] - Core services inflation showed signs of cooling, with contributions from services decreasing from 2.18% to 2.12%[11] Federal Reserve Outlook - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials indicate a shift in focus from "controlling inflation" to "stabilizing employment," suggesting a more dovish stance on future monetary policy[18] - Market expectations are leaning towards two additional rate cuts by the end of the year, supported by the latest inflation data[18] Risk Factors - Potential risks include uncertainties in overseas economic policies and a decline in external demand, which could impact inflation and economic stability[23]

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that US inflation may have reached a temporary peak, with expectations of a decline in the coming months due to manageable tariff impacts and a stabilizing job market [1][3][13]. Inflation Trends - Over the past six months, US inflation has experienced a slight recovery, with the CPI rising from 3% in January to 3% in September, after a low of 2.3% in April [1][5]. - Core CPI also showed a similar trend, increasing from 2.8% in May to 3% in September [1][5]. Tariff Impact - The price impact of tariffs is relatively controllable, with the effective tariff rate rising from 2.3% to 9.5% between February and July, which is lower than initial market expectations [1][6]. - As of September, the tariff price effect on core goods prices is estimated to be close to 90%, with a potential remaining impact of about 0.5 percentage points on core goods and 0.1 percentage points on overall CPI if tariffs rise to 17% [2][7]. Labor Market Dynamics - The marginal weakening of the job market has prevented a wage-price spiral, with wage growth slowing and rental prices stabilizing around 0.2-0.3% [2][6]. - The rental growth rate has decreased, with primary residence rent rising only 0.2%, the smallest monthly increase since January 2021 [19][22]. Inflation Expectations - Consumer inflation expectations remain high in the short and medium term but have decreased compared to earlier in the year, with market pricing for long-term inflation expectations remaining stable or even declining [11][13]. Future Inflation Projections - If US tariff policies do not experience significant fluctuations, inflation is expected to stabilize around 3% in Q4 of this year and decline to approximately 2.5% and 2.8% for CPI and core CPI, respectively, in Q2 of next year [3][13]. Monetary Policy Implications - The controllable impact of tariffs and the peak in inflation may support the Federal Reserve's decision to continue "preemptive" rate cuts, with potential cuts of 25 basis points in October and December [15][25]. - Future rate cuts may slow down if inflation declines at a moderate pace and employment stabilizes [15][25].

Inflation Overview - In September, the overall CPI increased by 3.0% year-on-year, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, while the core CPI also rose by 3.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from August[2] - Month-on-month, the CPI decreased by 0.3%, a decline of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, while the core CPI increased by 0.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from August[2] Market Reaction - The September inflation data was below market expectations of 3.1%, indicating a slight easing of inflation concerns[4] - The data suggests that inflation risks are manageable, providing a signal for potential interest rate cuts later in the year[18] Sector Contributions - Food prices rose by 3.1% year-on-year, slightly down from 3.2% in August, contributing 0.42% to the overall CPI[11] - Energy prices saw a significant year-on-year increase of 2.9%, compared to just 0.4% in August, contributing 0.19% to the CPI[11] Core Inflation Insights - Core services showed a notable slowdown, contributing 2.12% to the CPI, down from 2.18% in the previous month[11] - The core CPI remains stable at 3.0%, indicating that while inflation is present, it is not accelerating significantly[4] Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to consider two interest rate cuts within the year, supported by the current inflation data[18] - Market expectations indicate a high probability of rate cuts in October and December, reflecting a shift in focus from controlling inflation to stabilizing employment[18]

Inflation Data Overview - In September, the U.S. CPI increased year-on-year from 2.9% to 3%, below the expected 3.1%[1] - Core CPI decreased year-on-year from 3.1% to 3%, matching the forecast[1] - Month-on-month CPI rose by 0.3%, below the expected 0.4%[1] Price Trends - Core goods prices rose by 0.2%, down from 0.3%, with used car prices falling by 0.4%[2] - Rent growth slowed, with primary residence rent increasing by 0.2%, the smallest increase since January 2021[2] - Super core services prices remained stable at 0.3%, with notable price increases in medical services (0.3%) and entertainment services (0.4%)[2] Inflation Peak Insights - Inflation has likely peaked temporarily, with CPI rising from 2.3% in April to 3% in September, a total increase of 0.7 percentage points[3] - The effective tariff rate has increased from 2.3% to 9.5% from February to July, indicating manageable tariff impacts on inflation[3] - The remaining tariff effects on core goods prices are estimated to be around 0.5 percentage points, contributing only about 0.1 percentage points to overall CPI[4] Future Projections - Inflation is expected to stabilize around 3% in Q4 2023, with a projected decline to approximately 2.5% for CPI and 2.8% for core CPI by Q2 2024[5] - The Federal Reserve may continue to implement preventive rate cuts, with potential reductions of 25 basis points in October and December[5] Market Reactions - Following the inflation report, market expectations for rate cuts have slightly increased, with the number of anticipated cuts rising from 1.92 to 2.0 for the year[34] - U.S. stock indices reached new highs, with the Nasdaq up 1.15% and the S&P 500 up 0.79%[34]

燕翔、石琳（燕翔系方正证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事） 核心结论 事件： 9月美国CPI同比3%，预期3.1%，前值2.9%；CPI环比0.3%，预期和前值均为0.4%；核心CPI同比3%，预期和前值均为3.1%；核心CPI环比0.2%，预期和前 值均为0.3%。 投资要点： 美国:CPI:季调:同比(%) -- 美国:核心CPI:季调:同比(%) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 l 0 21-08 21-02 22-08 23-08 24-08 25-08 23-02 24-02 25-02 22-02 资料来源: Wind, 方正证券研究所 价格指数:进口商品 =价格指数:国内商品 1.04 1.03 1.02 1.01 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 25-04 25-06 25-10 4-12 25-02 25-05 25-08 25-09 24-10 24- 1 1 25-03 25-07 25-01 资料来源: Cavallo,Llamas & Vazquez (2025), 方正证券研究所 美国政府停摆下9月通胀数据发布对市场意义重大，年内美联储大概率降息2次，10年美债利率 ...