News Summary Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing fluctuations due to seasonal demand changes and supply concerns, with a focus on maintaining energy supply during the heating season [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Prices and Trends - In the Luliang region, the price of primary coking coal has increased by 10 yuan to 1650 yuan/ton [1] - Vietnam's coal imports reached 4.8284 million tons in October 2025, marking a month-on-month increase of 21.99% and a year-on-year increase of 11.27% [1] - From January to October 2025, Vietnam's total coal imports amounted to 55.5707 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.33% [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current market is characterized by a policy vacuum, weak terminal demand, and concerns over coal supply, leading to a pullback in the double焦盘面 [2] - Despite tight supply conditions for coking coal, demand remains weak, and inventory levels are accumulating but remain low, limiting the downward price adjustment space [3] - The strategy suggests observing for signs of price stabilization and taking advantage of potential buying opportunities during coking coal pullbacks [2]

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 日期 2025 年 11 月 12 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：11月11日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | J2601 | 174 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Yesterday, steel and iron ore showed relatively strong performance, while coking coal declined significantly due to the "supply guarantee" expectation. With the expected decline in hot metal and high steel inventories, the hot metal production of steel mills in the January contract is likely to fall rather than rise. The iron element supply in the January contract is turning loose, and there is a basis for negative feedback in the iron element chain. The main interference later lies in the winter iron ore replenishment of steel mills. The long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage can be continued, and the main risk is the coal mine复产 situation. For single - side trading, it is advisable to wait and see, and pay attention to the support levels of 3000 for rebar and 3200 for hot - rolled coil [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Night trading of iron ore was strong, and the basis narrowed. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased this week, and the arrival volume at 45 ports declined, but the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to rise. On the demand side, the steel mill profit margin dropped significantly, hot metal production declined from a high level, and the replenishment demand of steel mills weakened. If the steel mill losses continue to increase and the finished product destocking is not as expected, the iron ore price may hit a new low. However, under the current profit rate and inventory level of steel mills, the probability of negative feedback in hot metal is low. In terms of strategy, the long - coking coal and short - iron ore arbitrage can partially stop profit, and wait for the coking coal to stabilize [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures showed a weak downward trend, and the spot - futures market was not in sync. The third round of coke price increase was implemented on November 5th, and the fourth round was launched on November 7th but not yet landed. On the supply side, coking coal prices in the Shanxi market were strong, providing cost support for coke, but coking enterprises still faced losses after the price increase, and their开工 rate decreased. On the demand side, environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan and Shanxi led to a significant decline in steel mill hot metal production, and steel prices were weak, suppressing the coke price increase. In terms of inventory, there was a slight destocking in coking plants, ports, and steel mills. Coke may still have a price increase expectation due to cost support. The strategy is to view it with a side - way trend, with a reference range of 1650 - 1780, and suggest a long - January and short - May arbitrage for coke [7]. - Coking coal futures also showed a weak downward trend, with a certain divergence between the spot and futures markets. The domestic coking coal market continued to be strong, but the price increase was too fast, making traders cautious. On the supply side, some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia resumed production, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance increased significantly in November. On the demand side, the decline in profit and environmental protection restrictions led to a significant decline in hot metal production, and the replenishment demand of steel mills weakened. In terms of inventory, there was destocking in coal mines and steel mills, and inventory accumulation in coking plants, coal washing plants, ports, and border ports. The strategy is to view it with a side - way trend, with a reference range of 1170 - 1290, and suggest a long - January and short - May arbitrage for coking coal [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3190 yuan/ton, 3210 yuan/ton, and 3270 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, +10, and +10 yuan/ton. Rebar futures contracts (05, 10, 01) decreased by 13, 3, and 19 yuan/ton respectively. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3260 yuan/ton, 3190 yuan/ton, and 3270 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10, 0, and +10 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil futures contracts (05, 10, 01) decreased by 10, 9, and 10 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price was 2930 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The profits of hot - rolled coils in East China, North China, and South China were - 30, - 110, and - 40 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 3, - 3, and - 13 yuan/ton. The profits of rebar in East China, North China, and South China were - 110, - 100, and - 10 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 3, +7, and +7 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average hot metal production was 234.2 tons, down 2.1 tons (- 0.9%). The production of five major steel products was 856.7 tons, down 18.5 tons (- 2.1%). Rebar production was 208.5 tons, down 4.1 tons (- 1.9%), and hot - rolled coil production was 318.2 tons, down 5.4 tons (- 1.7%). - The inventory of five major steel products was 1503.6 tons, down 10.2 tons (- 0.7%). Rebar inventory was 592.5 tons, down 10 tons (- 1.7%), and hot - rolled coil inventory was 410.5 tons, up 3.9 tons (0.9%) [1]. Trading Volume and Demand - The building materials trading volume was 91, down 17 (- 15.6%). The apparent demand for five major steel products was 866.9 tons, down 49.5 tons (- 5.4%). The apparent demand for rebar was 218.5 tons, down 13.7 tons (- 5.9%), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil was 314.3 tons, down 17.6 tons (- 5.3%) [1]. Iron Ore Industry Price and Spread - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, and the basis of some varieties changed. The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads of iron ore futures contracts changed by +0.5, - 1.0, and +0.5 respectively [4]. Supply and Demand - The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 477.2 tons (- 14.8%) this week, and the global shipment volume decreased by 144.8 tons (- 4.5%). - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.1 tons (- 0.9%), the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 0.8 tons (0.2%), the national monthly pig iron production decreased by 374.7 tons (- 5.4%), and the national monthly crude steel production decreased by 387.8 tons (- 5.0%) [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 229.4 tons (1.5%) compared with Monday, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 160.1 tons (1.8%), and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Price and Spread - Coke prices: The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged. Coke futures contracts (01, 05) decreased by 59 and 46 yuan/ton respectively. - Coking coal prices: The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) decreased by 33 yuan/ton (- 2.4%). Coking coal futures contracts (01, 05) decreased by 53 and 31 yuan/ton respectively [7]. Supply and Demand - Coke production (weekly): The daily average production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.0 tons (- 1.5%), and the daily average production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 tons (- 0.3%). - Coking coal production (weekly): The raw coal production decreased by 3.4 tons (- 0.4%), and the clean coal production decreased by 2.0 tons (- 0.5%) [7]. Inventory - Coke inventory (weekly): The total coke inventory decreased by 13 tons (- 1.4%), the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.6 tons (- 2.6%), the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4 tons (- 0.4%), and the port inventory decreased by 9 tons (- 4.3%). - Coking coal inventory (weekly): The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 0.8 tons (- 0.9%), the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 17.5 tons (1.7%), the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 9 tons (- 1.1%), and the port inventory increased by 14.1 tons (4.9%) [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry is expected to continue its range - bound consolidation. The short - term performance of each variety varies, with factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and geopolitical situations influencing their trends [4]. - For crude oil, short - term drivers are lacking, and the market is expected to remain volatile. The supply pressure in the real - world remains, but OPEC+ is becoming more cautious about increasing production, showing a willingness to support prices. The actual reduction in Russian oil supply in mid - to late November needs attention [9][10]. - For asphalt, the spot price is falling, and the futures price is oscillating. The premium - driving factors are weakening, and there is still significant inventory accumulation pressure [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News - US sanctions on Russia's Lukoil have affected its European business, and multiple European countries' winter energy supplies may be at risk. Bulgaria's available gasoline can only last about a month, and its diesel reserves can last over 50 days [10]. - The Trump administration's plan to sell new offshore oil exploration rights on the US West Coast is likely to fail [10]. - Venezuela did not seek military support from Russia despite the tense regional situation [10]. 3.2 Variety Analysis Crude Oil - On November 11, the short - term drivers were lacking, and the market continued to oscillate. The global inventory was rising, showing supply pressure in the real - world. However, the improvement in refined - oil inventory pressure and strong crack spreads provided phased support to the demand side. OPEC+ was cautious about increasing production, and the price was expected to oscillate. The actual reduction in Russian oil supply in mid - to late November needed attention [9][10]. Asphalt - On November 11, the spot price fell, and the futures price oscillated. The OPEC+ group planned to increase production in December, the Israel - Palestine conflict ended, and the situation between the US and Venezuela was under control. The asphalt futures price broke below the important support level of 3200 yuan/ton, which was expected to turn into a resistance level. The asphalt - fuel oil spread oscillated around 400 yuan/ton. The production schedule in November decreased significantly, but the demand entered the off - season. The supply tension was relieved, and the high - premium driving factors were weakening [11]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - On November 11, it showed a weak oscillation. The OPEC+ group planned to increase production in December, the Israel - Palestine conflict ended, but the premium on Russian oil still existed. The fuel - oil supply in the Asia - Pacific region in November was expected to decrease due to the decline in Russian exports. The fuel - oil price still needed to pay attention to the development of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The refinery processing demand was weak, and the fuel - oil demand was still sluggish [11]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - On November 11, it might show a moderately upward oscillation. It followed the crude - oil price and oscillated weakly. The domestic refined - oil supply pressure increased, and the low - sulfur fuel oil was under the trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand. However, its current valuation was low and it would follow the crude - oil price fluctuations [13]. PX - On November 11, the commodity market sentiment cooled down, and it was waiting for contradictions to accumulate under the stalemate in profitability. The financial market risk appetite recovered, but the international oil price lacked further positive support. The PX price followed the cost and adjusted downward. The supply remained at a high level, and the price was expected to remain within a range in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether the gasoline profit changes would drive further trade flows [14]. PTA - On November 11, the supply - demand situation improved month - on - month, and the processing fee was repaired. The upstream cost cooled down, and the PTA price followed the decline. The supply - demand pattern improved slightly due to some device overhauls, and the spot processing fee was repaired month - on - month. However, the profit - repair space was relatively limited without unplanned overhauls [15][16]. Pure Benzene - On November 11, the port resumed inventory accumulation, and it was running weakly. The pure - benzene - to - naphtha spread was below 100, at a low level in recent years. The downstream benzene - ethylene overhauls were numerous in November, and the inventory - accumulation pressure was mainly on the pure - benzene side. The upward driving force was currently insufficient, but the valuation was at a low level [18][19]. Styrene - On November 11, the inventory - filling pressure still existed, and it was oscillating weakly. The driving force for going long was insufficient, but the short - selling space was getting smaller. The benzene - ethylene inventory began to decrease, but the pure - benzene inventory pressure reappeared. The pressure in November was mainly on the cost side of pure benzene [20]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - On November 11, the long - shutdown device restarted as scheduled, and the supply pressure was gradually realized. The polyester - chain commodity sentiment cooled down, and the ethylene - glycol price adjusted downward. The supply pressure increased as the long - shutdown device restarted, and the inventory - accumulation pattern continued. The price was expected to remain in a low - level range in the short term [21][22]. Short - Fiber - On November 11, the market was characterized by buying on dips and avoiding buying on rallies, and attention should be paid to the off - season to peak - season transition. The polyester upstream price adjusted downward, and the short - fiber price followed the cost and decreased slightly. The market was in the off - season to peak - season transition period, and the downstream demand was expected to weaken. The short - fiber price was expected to move within a range [24][25]. Polyester Bottle Chip - On November 11, the market performance was dull, and it was passively following the cost. The upstream polyester raw material price adjusted downward, and the polyester bottle - chip price decreased slightly. The short - term supply - demand contradiction was not prominent, and it followed the upstream price fluctuations. The processing fee was expected to be adjusted within a range [26]. Methanol - On November 11, the high - inventory reality suppressed the price, and overseas disturbances were not significant. The methanol price was oscillating and consolidating. The high inventory in coastal areas and sufficient imports suppressed the market, and the actual trading atmosphere was weak. The inland methanol also faced high - inventory pressure and relied on downstream olefin procurement and traders' willingness to hold goods [28]. Urea - On November 11, the export information boosted the spot market, but downstream transactions became cautious, and the futures price was expected to oscillate in the short term. The fourth - batch export quota information significantly boosted the spot market, but the high - inventory pressure still existed, and the short - term fundamentals were difficult to support high prices [28]. LLDPE - On November 11, the maintenance support was still limited, and it was oscillating weakly. The oil price was oscillating, and the supply - side support was limited. With the end of the peak season, the upstream and mid - stream still had the intention to reduce inventory at high prices, which would suppress the price increase. The short - term futures price was expected to remain weak before the significant increase in maintenance [29]. PP - On November 11, the downstream transactions increased, but the maintenance support was limited, and it was oscillating downward. The futures price was oscillating downward. The downstream transactions increased as the price decreased. The supply - side support was limited, and the inventory was at a high level in the same period in the past five years. The price was expected to remain weak in the short term [30]. PL - On November 11, the inventory needed time to be digested, and it was oscillating weakly. The Saudi Aramco's November CP prices for propane and butane decreased. The downstream restocking enthusiasm weakened, and the enterprise inventory was slightly high. The PL price was expected to remain weak in the short term [31]. PVC - On November 11, the weak reality suppressed the price, and it was oscillating weakly. The macro - level disturbances in November subsided, and the PVC fundamentals were under pressure. The production was expected to increase, the downstream demand was seasonally weakening, the export orders were weakening, and the cost was expected to remain stable [33]. Caustic Soda - On November 11, it was in a low - valuation and weak - expectation state and was oscillating. The macro - level disturbances in November subsided, and the caustic - soda supply - demand expectation was poor. Attention should be paid to whether the low - profit situation would drive upstream production cuts. The cost might increase due to the possible decline in liquid - chlorine price, and the futures price was expected to oscillate widely [34]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., showed different changes, including increases and decreases [36]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse - receipt data of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., were presented, with corresponding changes in the basis and specific warehouse - receipt quantities [37]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads between different varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc., also showed different changes [39]. 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - For each variety, detailed basis and spread data were provided, but specific content was not elaborated in the text, only the variety names were mentioned [40][52][64]. 3.4 Commodity Index - On November 11, the comprehensive index, characteristic index, and sector index of the CITIC Futures Commodity Index showed different degrees of decline. The energy index also showed a decline on that day, with a decline of 0.56%, a decline of 0.99% in the past five days, an increase of 2.04% in the past month, and a decline of 5.98% since the beginning of the year [280][281].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term domestic coal mine production has not recovered, while the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume has significantly increased; demand is in a slow decline trend, and attention should be paid to the transmission of pressure to the raw material end. Coking coal prices are still operating within the range of 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Situation - Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures prices oscillated and declined, and the downward trend continued at night. The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the 2025 - 2026 heating season, emphasizing strengthening coal production organization and transportation guarantee. The spot market is generally stable with a slight upward trend, domestic coal prices have risen again, and the fourth round of coke price increase is still in the negotiation process [3] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: Last week, coal mines in Shanxi further reduced production, with the most obvious reduction in the Lvliang area. State - owned large mines in the Liulin area began to control production independently, and the output decreased significantly. The daily average output of clean coal dropped to 73.8 tons, a decrease of 2 tons from the previous week and 4.6 tons year - on - year. On the import side, from November 3rd to 8th, the daily average customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port increased to 19.52 tons, an increase of 3.09 tons compared with the previous week, and the inventory in the port supervision area showed an increasing trend [3] - **Demand Side**: Steel mills' profits continued to shrink, and the profitability rate dropped below 40%. The daily average hot metal output decreased to 234.22 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons from the previous week. The recent decline in hot metal is related to the significant narrowing of profits and the environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan. Currently, the profitability level will not lead to large - scale production cuts by steel mills, and the phased restrictions in Tangshan have been lifted. Later, attention should be paid to the changes in steel mills' profitability and production rhythm [3] Group 4: Later Concerns - Pay attention to the changes in steel mills' blast furnace start - up and the resumption of coal mine production [4]

早盘速递 2025/11/12 热点资讯 1. 中国人民银行发布2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告。其中提出，实施好适度宽松的货币政策。综合运用多种工具， 保持社会融资条件相对宽松，同时继续完善货币政策框架，强化货币政策的执行和传导。保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、 货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配，持续营造适宜的货币金融环境。 2. 中国汽车工业协会今天（11日）发布的最新数据显示，今年1至10月份，我国新能源汽车产销量继续实现较高增长。其中， 10月份新能源汽车月度新车销量首次超过了汽车新车总销量的50%。 3. 国家发展改革委组织召开2025—2026年供暖季能源保供视频会议。会议要求稳定能源生产供应，加强煤炭生产组织和运输 保障。确保各类电源应开尽开、稳发满发，充分发挥风电、光伏的电力电量支撑作用。 4. Mysteel卫星数据显示，2025年11月3日-11月9日期间， 澳大利亚、巴西七个主要港口铁矿石库存总量1262.6万吨，环比上 升45.8万吨，呈小幅累库趋势，当前库存水平略低于下半年以来的中位线。 5. 美国总统特朗普表示，对印度征收高额关税是因为它购买了俄罗斯石油，印 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for coking coal and coke in the black sector is "Bearish and volatile" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The coking coal market experienced a significant correction yesterday. The near - month contracts dropped by over 3%, and the far - month contracts declined by nearly 2%. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized energy supply guarantee, which boosted coal supply and led to a bearish market sentiment. Although the spot auction prices remained strong, the short - term futures market is expected to decline due to sentiment. The coking coal should be viewed bearishly in the short term [1] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - Yesterday, the coking coal main contract Jm2601 closed at 1213.0, down 4.5% from the daytime session opening. The coke main contract J2601 closed at 1685.0, down 3.36% from the daytime session opening. In the night session, Jm2601 closed at 1216.5, up 0.29% from the daytime session close, and J2601 closed at 1691.5, up 0.39% from the daytime session close [1] 2. Important Information - The US announced a suspension of the export - control penetration rule from November 10, 2025, to November 9, 2026. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded that this is an important measure for the US to implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur. The arrangement after the one - year suspension will be further discussed [1] - The deputy director of the Investment Department of the National Development and Reform Commission said that the commission has recommended 18 private investment projects to the CSRC, 14 of which have been issued and listed, with a total fund - raising of nearly 30 billion yuan. A total of 105 infrastructure REITs projects have been recommended, and 83 have been issued and listed [1] - Henan Energy Group and Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Group signed a strategic restructuring framework agreement on November 7. Henan Energy Group will become a wholly - owned subsidiary of Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Group [1] - From January to October this year, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles reached 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, up 33.1% and 32.7% year - on - year. In October, the monthly sales of new - energy vehicles exceeded 50% of the total new - vehicle sales for the first time [1] 3. Market Logic - The coking coal market corrected significantly yesterday. The National Development and Reform Commission's emphasis on energy supply guarantee boosted coal supply and led to a bearish market sentiment. Although the spot auction prices were strong, the short - term futures market is expected to decline due to sentiment [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the support level below 1200 for the coking coal main contract. View it bearishly in the short term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has organized a video conference to arrange energy supply for the heating season of 2025-2026, indicating a generally balanced energy supply and demand but acknowledging potential risks due to extreme weather and complex international situations [1] Group 1: Energy Supply Stability - Emphasis on stabilizing energy production and supply, ensuring coal production organization and transportation support [1] - All types of power sources should be fully operational, with wind and solar energy playing a significant role in electricity supply [1] - Proper arrangements for natural gas resource production and supply are essential [1] Group 2: Contract Fulfillment - Focus on improving the fulfillment of long-term coal contracts, particularly for heating needs in northern regions, especially Northeast China [1] - Companies are urged to strictly adhere to signed gas supply contracts [1] Group 3: Peak Energy Supply Management - Maintaining a dynamic clearance of coal stocks for power plants with less than 15 days of supply [1] - Ensuring peak output from coal-fired power plants and utilizing gas, hydro, pumped storage, and electrochemical energy storage for peak supply [1] - Effective use of gas storage facilities and LNG tanks for peak demand management [1] Group 4: Safety Production - Reinforcement of local and corporate responsibilities for safety production, ensuring adherence to energy safety operation standards [1]

Core Insights - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) successfully completed the simultaneous unloading of two LNG carriers, "Zhongneng Fushi" and "Wulande," at the Tianjin LNG receiving station, marking the first dual LNG vessel operation during this heating season [1] - A total of 166,000 tons of LNG were unloaded, sufficient to meet the heating needs of over 16 million households in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region for one month [1] - Since November, the Tianjin LNG receiving station has exported over 100 million cubic meters of natural gas and transported approximately 1,500 truckloads of LNG, establishing a dual supply guarantee through pipeline and liquid transportation [1] - As energy supply enters a critical phase, relevant units in Tianjin are enhancing coordination to ensure the safe and stable transportation of LNG for heating supply in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **螺纹钢**: The main contract price of rebar showed a weak and volatile trend, with a daily decline of 0.33%, and both trading volume and open interest remained stable. In the current situation, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved under the situation of weak supply and demand. The pressure of inventory reduction is relatively large, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is that the cost still provides support. In the short - term, the price will continue to oscillate and seek the bottom. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - **热轧卷板**: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated, with a daily increase of 0.03%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. At present, the industrial contradictions of hot - rolled coil remain unresolved, inventory has increased again, and prices continue to be under pressure. However, the cost side still provides support. In the short - term, the price will continue to show a weak and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - **铁矿石**: The main contract price of iron ore oscillated, with a daily increase of 0.20%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, the demand for iron ore is weakening, while the supply remains at a high level. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak. Under the dominance of the real - world logic, the iron ore price will continue to be under pressure and show a weak operation trend. Attention should be paid to the performance of the steel market [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Energy Supply for Heating Season**: The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply for the 2025 - 2026 heating season, requiring all regions and relevant enterprises to ensure stable energy production and supply, and improve the performance of medium - and long - term energy contracts, especially focusing on coal supply for northern heating areas [7]. - **New Energy Vehicle Sales**: From January to October 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 27.692 million and 27.687 million vehicles respectively, with a year - on - year increase of over 10%. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 13.015 million and 12.943 million vehicles respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 33.1% and 32.7% respectively. In October, the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 51.6% of the total vehicle sales for the first time [8]. - **Anti - Dumping Ruling**: On November 10, 2025, Thailand's anti - dumping and counter - subsidy sub - committee decided to continue to impose a 5 - year anti - dumping duty on cold - rolled stainless steel products from China. The anti - dumping duty for Ningbo Baoxin Stainless Steel Co., Ltd. is 8.5%, and for other Chinese producers/ exporters is 33.32%. Some producers/ exporters are exempted from the duty [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The national average price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) was 3,228 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the national average price of hot - rolled coil (4.75mm) was 3,308 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; the price of Tangshan billet (Q235) was 2,940 yuan/ton, unchanged; and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) was 2,140 yuan/ton, unchanged [10]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 773 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 798 yuan/ton, unchanged. The sea freight from Australia was 10.36 yuan/ton, down 0.09 yuan/ton, and from Brazil was 23.41 yuan/ton, down 0.12 yuan/ton. The SGX swap (current month) was 103.29, up 0.70, and the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 103.00, up 0.95 [10]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change (%) | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3,025 | - 0.33 | 753,110 | - 296,403 | 1,923,701 | - 32 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | 3,242 | 0.03 | 324,368 | - 50,997 | 1,326,892 | - 19,179 | | Iron Ore | 763.0 | 0.20 | 262,391 | - 65,052 | 530,352 | - 11,250 | 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: The report provides charts on the weekly changes and total inventory (including steel mills and social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil, which can be used to analyze the inventory trends of steel products [16][17][19]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts on the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines are provided, which are helpful for analyzing the supply and demand situation of iron ore [21][22][27]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts on the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, and the operating rate of independent electric furnaces are provided, which can be used to understand the production and operation status of steel mills [29][30][31]. 3.5后市研判 - **Rebar**: Both supply and demand are weakening. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 4.05 tons, and demand decreased by 13.66 tons. The fundamentals have not improved, and inventory reduction pressure is large. Although the cost provides support, the price will continue to oscillate and seek the bottom in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the production of steel mills [38]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both supply and demand are weakening. The weekly output decreased by 5.40 tons, and demand decreased by 17.59 tons. Industrial contradictions remain unresolved, inventory has increased again, and prices are under pressure. The cost provides support, and the price will continue to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the implementation of steel mill production restrictions [38]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and inventory has increased significantly. Ore demand continues to decline, while supply remains at a high level. The price will continue to be under pressure and show a weak trend. Attention should be paid to the performance of the steel market [39].