Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs analyst Vickie Chang's report analyzes four scenarios in which the Federal Reserve may implement monetary easing earlier than expected, highlighting that a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker dollar will be the main trends across all scenarios [1][2]. Scenario Summaries Scenario 1: Downward Inflation Risk Drives Rate Cuts - If inflation data continues to exceed expectations or if the Fed believes the impact of tariffs is temporary, the market will lower the 2-year Treasury yield by 25 basis points [4]. - Market reactions include rising stock prices, declining bond yields, a steeper yield curve, and a broadly weaker dollar [5][6]. Scenario 2: Declining Growth Expectations Drive Rate Cuts - A 50 basis point downward adjustment in U.S. economic growth expectations will fully drive the rate cut [7]. - This scenario may occur due to further deterioration in labor market and economic activity data, especially if the market doubts the limited damage from tariffs [8]. - In this case, both stock prices and bond yields will decline, with a slightly weaker dollar overall [9][10]. Scenario 3: Dovish Policy + Downward Growth Expectations - This scenario combines dovish policy impacts with negative growth shocks, pricing in both Fed easing and downward growth expectations [11][12]. - The U.S. stock market will see slight declines, with bond yields dropping more than in the previous scenarios, a steeper yield curve, and a broadly weaker dollar [13]. Scenario 4: Dovish Policy + Upward Growth Expectations - In this scenario, the market prices in Fed easing while also raising U.S. economic growth expectations by 50 basis points [14]. - Risk assets perform strongly, with significant stock market gains, slight declines in bond yields, and a moderately weaker dollar, particularly against cyclical currencies [15]. Consistent Trends Across Scenarios - Across all scenarios, a decline in yields, a weaker dollar, and an increase in gold prices are consistent trends [16]. - The direction of the stock market is highly dependent on accurate assessments of growth expectations, as is the strength of risk currencies against the dollar [16][17]. Market Pricing and Future Outlook - The market has begun to price in Fed easing, and if data supports this, the trend may continue [18]. - Current market pricing for growth is slightly above the one-year forecast, but there is still potential for upward movement if the focus shifts to 2026 growth outlooks [18]. - If growth conditions remain stable, a dovish shift from the Fed could benefit risk assets, although current growth expectations appear relatively full compared to April [19].

Group 1 - The Shanghai gold spot price on July 2 was quoted at 770.6 yuan per gram, showing a discount of 5.44 yuan per gram compared to the futures main price of 776.04 yuan per gram [1] - The latest closing price for Shanghai gold futures was 776.04 yuan per gram, with a daily increase of 0.70% and a trading volume of 202,457 contracts [1] - Economic data from the U.S. showed mixed results, with job vacancies unexpectedly increasing by 374,000 to 7.769 million, exceeding market expectations, while hiring numbers fell by 112,000 to 5.503 million [1] Group 2 - The ISM manufacturing PMI indicated a continued low performance in the manufacturing sector, reflecting the impact of trade policies on the real economy [1] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies has led to supply chain bottlenecks, with businesses adopting a cautious approach to long-term procurement decisions [1] - Institutional views suggest that the recent drop in the dollar to a near three-year low has allowed precious metals to continue their rebound, although there was a slight pullback following the release of U.S. economic data [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing fluctuations and are currently around $3340, with investors awaiting key employment data from the U.S. [1] - The recent passage of Trump's tax and spending cut bill in the Senate is seen as a political victory, which may influence market sentiment and gold prices [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has reiterated the need for more economic data before considering monetary easing, but has not ruled out the possibility of a rate cut in July [3] Group 2 - Technical analysis suggests that gold prices are maintaining an upward trend, with a closing price above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $3322 per ounce, indicating potential for further increases [3] - If gold prices rise above $3350 per ounce, the next target will be $3400, with further resistance at $3450 and the historical high of $3500 [3] - Conversely, if gold prices fall below the 50-day moving average, the first support level will be $3300 per ounce, with sellers targeting the June 30 low of $3246 per ounce [3]

Group 1 - Gold prices remained stable as investors closely monitored the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, as well as potential signals of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1] - Spot gold prices approached $3,335, slightly below Wednesday's closing price, amid mixed risk sentiment due to fragile ceasefire conditions [1] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank is assessing the impact of Trump's tariff policies on consumer prices, which could lead to earlier-than-expected monetary easing if inflation remains subdued, benefiting non-yielding assets like gold [1] Group 2 - Technically, the bullish position in August gold futures has recently shown an overall advantage, but it is weakening, with the next upward target at the solid resistance level of $3,476.30 [2] - The first resistance level for gold is at Tuesday's high of $3,385.00, followed by $3,400.00, while the first support level is at this week's low of $3,308.30, then $3,300.00 [2]

Group 1 - Platinum prices have surged to their highest level since 2014, driven by strong demand from Chinese jewelry buyers who prefer platinum over gold [1][4] - Platinum prices rose nearly 3% on Thursday, while palladium saw an increase of over 5%, indicating a positive momentum for platinum due to its supply shortage [1] - Gold prices have increased by over 25% this year but have shown signs of weakening due to easing trade tensions and buyers favoring lower-priced precious metals [3] Group 2 - As of the latest report, platinum prices reached $1,381.26 per ounce, while palladium prices rose to $1,101.64 per ounce, and gold prices increased to $3,336.90 per ounce [3] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy and potential interest rate cuts are influencing gold prices, with indications that inflation remains moderate [3] - The relationship between platinum and palladium is highlighted, as they can substitute for each other in automotive catalysts, suggesting that rising platinum prices may positively impact palladium [1]

Group 1 - The appreciation of the yen against the dollar is partially supported by the depreciation of the dollar due to the U.S. monetary easing policies aimed at addressing domestic economic recession and high inflation [3][4] - The long-term depreciation of the yen is attributed to structural issues within the Japanese economy, including a phenomenon of "structural yen selling" driven by Japanese companies' overseas investments [3][4] - Japan's low interest rate policy and economic stagnation have led to capital outflows, further exacerbating the depreciation of the yen [4][6] Group 2 - Global economic uncertainties, including U.S. monetary policy and the recovery of the European and Chinese economies, significantly impact the yen's value [6][7] - The reliance on exports makes Japan's economy vulnerable to fluctuations in the yen's exchange rate, which can affect the competitiveness of Japanese exporters [6][9] - Japan must focus on internal economic reforms and reduce dependence on external markets to achieve sustainable economic growth and address the underlying issues of yen depreciation [9]

Core Viewpoint - The silver futures contract experienced a significant decline, dropping 1.91% to 8819 yuan/kg, following the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged, coupled with hawkish comments from Powell regarding inflation pressures [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Impact - The Federal Reserve announced to keep interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.5%, which was in line with market expectations [1]. - Powell's hawkish remarks indicated that rising inflation could hinder the rate cut process, suggesting potential inflationary pressures in the coming months [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East escalated, with Trump approving plans for strikes against Iran, although no attack orders were issued yet [1]. - Iran responded by highlighting the range of its missiles that could target multiple U.S. bases in the region, with its leadership firmly stating that Iran would not surrender [1]. - Ongoing airstrikes between Iran and Israel have not shown signs of resolution, raising concerns about potential U.S. involvement and its implications for the conflict [1]. Group 3: Market Implications - The lack of signals for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve suggests a weakening support for silver prices from monetary easing policies in the short term [1]. - The impact of geopolitical tensions on safe-haven investments like silver may increase if the U.S. directly engages in the conflict; otherwise, the influence of these tensions on the market may diminish [1].

Group 1 - Emerging market currencies and stocks have declined due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with indices dropping over 0.4% before narrowing to a 0.1% decline at close [1] - The South African rand, Hungarian forint, and South Korean won were among the worst performers, each depreciating over 1% against the US dollar, while the Israeli shekel dropped as much as 0.8% before recovering [1] - The market is under pressure from risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's decisions [1][3] Group 2 - Despite recent declines, fund managers believe that the strong performance of emerging markets relative to US assets will continue, as the risks from the conflict are not expected to be deep or prolonged [4] - Emerging markets are expected to outperform other markets in macroeconomic growth this year and next, with international investors recognizing the need to diversify their investments [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of government bond futures is mainly for shock consolidation. The short - term is lack of momentum to push the market interest rate down continuously, and the subsequent trend depends on policy guidance. The government bond futures have strong bottom support due to various factors such as the expected future easing policy [4]. - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are shock, shock, and shock - biased - strong respectively, with an overall view of shock, mainly because of rising tariff risks and weakening macro data [1]. 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, the intraday view is shock - biased - strong, and the overall view is shock. The core logic is rising tariff risks and weakening macro data [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is shock - biased - strong, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock. - The core logic is that last Friday, government bond futures rose across the board. The central bank announced a 1 - trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation, increasing medium - term liquidity and sending a signal of increased quantitative monetary easing, which boosted the investment demand for government bonds. However, there is insufficient short - term momentum to push market interest rates down. The subsequent trend of government bonds depends on policy guidance, and attention can be paid to the financial policies at the Lujiazui Forum on June 18. Currently, the uncertainty of the tariff outlook is deepening, domestic macro - economic indicators are weakening marginally, the main tone of moderate monetary policy easing remains unchanged, and the market's expectation of future easing policies will rise, providing strong bottom support for government bond futures [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain stable interest rates is crucial in the current economic climate, particularly as the impact of tariffs on inflation has yet to fully materialize [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Environment - The U.S. inflation rate has exceeded the Federal Reserve's 2% target for four consecutive years, raising concerns about long-term inflation expectations [3]. - The impact of tariffs, especially on intermediate goods, will not be immediate, leading to delayed effects on consumer prices [3]. - Ongoing global trade negotiations may last for months or even years, complicating the situation further [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Stance - Some policymakers advocate for interest rate cuts to support economic growth, viewing tariff impacts as short-term inflation shocks [1][3]. - However, the Federal Reserve, particularly through the views of Kashkari, emphasizes the need to remain vigilant regarding the long-term effects of trade policies and tariffs on inflation and economic stability [1][3][5]. - Since December of the previous year, the Federal Reserve has maintained the policy interest rate between 4.25% and 4.5%, primarily due to uncertainties surrounding the new tariff policies [5].