Group 1 - The A500 index (000510) experienced a slight decline of 0.16% as of June 12, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - Tianfu Communication (300394) led the gains with an increase of 11.15%, while Chuangfeng Power (603129) was the biggest loser, down 3.27% [1] - The A500 ETF fund (512050) showed a tight trading range with a latest price of 0.95 yuan and a turnover rate of 5.45%, with a total transaction volume of 8.65 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - According to Citic Securities, the A-share market is expected to stabilize due to improved risk appetite following negotiations between China and the U.S. leadership [2] - The manufacturing PMI showed recovery in May after a decline due to trade conflicts in April, while the non-manufacturing PMI is approaching 50, indicating weak verification of recovery [2] - The A500 ETF closely tracks the A500 index, which selects 500 securities with larger market capitalization and better liquidity from various industries [2] Group 3 - As of May 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the A500 index accounted for 21.21% of the index, including Kweichow Moutai (600519) and CATL (300750) [2] - The top ten stocks by weight include Kweichow Moutai (4.28%), CATL (2.96%), and Ping An Insurance (2.46%) [3] Group 4 - The A500 ETF fund has several related funds, including the 华夏中证A500ETF联接A (022430) and 华夏中证A500指数增强A (023619) [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. tariff imposition on China has led to a swift response from the U.S. government, indicating a potential willingness to negotiate after only a few days of enforcement [1][9]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The U.S. and China are both suffering from the trade conflict, but China is better positioned to endure short-term economic pressures due to its role as a seller, while the U.S. faces immediate needs for essential goods [4]. - The U.S. is struggling to find alternative sources for critical components, such as chips and semiconductors, which are primarily sourced from China, leading to potential business failures in the U.S. if the situation persists [5]. - The Oxford Economics expert suggests that while China may not immediately offset the impacts of a complete economic decoupling, it has long-term strategies to adapt, including diversifying its export markets through initiatives like the Belt and Road [7]. Group 2: U.S. Policy Adjustments - On November 11, the U.S. announced a list of nearly 1,000 products, including electronics and raw materials, that would be subject to lower tariffs, effectively exempting them from the high tariffs previously imposed [9]. - This exemption is seen as a significant concession from the Trump administration, aimed at facilitating negotiations with China, as the U.S. relies heavily on Chinese imports for many essential goods [10]. - The U.S. media has interpreted this move as a sign of Trump's desire to negotiate, although he still seeks to maintain a strong position domestically by not appearing to back down [12]. Group 3: Agricultural Shifts - China has historically relied on the U.S. for agricultural imports, particularly soybeans, but has begun to shift its sourcing to countries like Brazil and Argentina, which are now major suppliers [14][15]. - Brazil's soybean exports to China are projected to reach 74.65 million tons in 2024, accounting for 71.1% of China's total soybean imports, indicating a significant shift in trade dynamics [15]. - The U.S. agricultural sector's reliance on China has diminished, as China has prepared for these changes, highlighting the contrasting adaptability of both nations in response to trade pressures [16][18].

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty brought by U.S. tariff policies is increasingly threatening international trade, particularly impacting key German ports like Hamburg and Bremen [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Ports - The waiting time for ships at Bremen port has increased by 77% and by approximately 49% at Hamburg port from late March to mid-May [2]. - Other major European ports, such as Antwerp, Rotterdam, and Felixstowe, are also experiencing extended waiting times for vessels [2]. - Labor shortages due to strikes, inadequate infrastructure, and adverse weather conditions are contributing to delays and operational disruptions at European northern ports [2]. Group 2: Causes of Bottlenecks - The adjustment of shipping alliances and terminal renovations are significant factors causing operational bottlenecks in German ports, exacerbated by the unpredictable U.S. tariff policies [2]. - The temporary suspension of high tariffs by the U.S. led to a surge in shipping volumes, further destabilizing the global logistics industry [2]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The potential resurgence of logistics bottlenecks similar to those experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic could lead to significant supply chain disruptions and increased commodity prices [3]. - Political decisions, such as the U.S. tariff policies, can quickly translate into real bottlenecks in ports and supply chains, signaling economic warnings [3]. - Increased transportation costs for smaller cargo due to U.S. tariffs will ultimately be passed on to American consumers [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating | Asset Category | Rating | | --- | --- | | Gold | Bearish | | US Dollar | Sideways | | US Stocks | Sideways | | Commodities | Sideways | | A-shares | Sideways | | Treasury Bonds | Sideways | [28] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, trade conflict expectations fluctuated, with tariff changes being the main market trading theme. The US May non-farm payroll report exceeded expectations, delaying the market's interest rate cut expectations to September and December. Risk appetite declined at the beginning of the week and rebounded on Friday. Different assets had varying understandings and trades regarding trade conflicts, and price discrepancies need to be resolved. In the short term, trade conflicts are not expected to worsen further, but the future trade situation remains severe [6]. - The global risk appetite continued to recover this week, with most of the equity markets rising. The US dollar weakened, while other currencies generally strengthened. The yields of most major global national treasury bonds rose. The commodity index increased significantly, and the sentiment in the domestic commodity market improved marginally [8][10][15][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Macro Context Tracking - Trade conflict expectations were volatile this week, and tariff changes dominated market trading. The US May non-farm payroll report alleviated concerns about a US economic recession, delaying interest rate cut expectations. Different assets showed different responses to trade conflicts, and price discrepancies need to be addressed. In the short term, trade conflicts are unlikely to worsen further, but the future trade situation remains challenging [6]. 3.2 Global Asset Class Performance Overview 3.2.1 Equity Market - Most of the global equity markets rose this week. Among developed markets, the South Korean KOSPI index rose 4.2%, the S&P 500 rose 1.5%, and the German DAX index rose 1.3%, while the Nikkei 225 declined slightly by 0.6%. Among emerging markets, most indices recorded gains, with the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rising 2.2%, the Saudi All-Share Index rising 1.7%, the Taiwan Weighted Index rising 1.5%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.1%. In the MSCI global index, most national indices rose, with emerging markets > frontier markets > emerging markets > developed markets [8][9]. 3.2.2 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar weakened this week, while other currencies generally strengthened. The US Dollar Index fell 0.24% and fluctuated around 100. Among emerging markets, the Brazilian real appreciated 2.87%, the Mexican peso appreciated 1.7%, the Thai baht appreciated 0.45%, and the onshore RMB appreciated slightly by 0.15%. Among developed markets, the South Korean won appreciated significantly by 1.65%, the Australian dollar appreciated 0.91%, and the Japanese yen depreciated 0.55% [10]. 3.2.3 Bond Market - The yields of most major global national treasury bonds rose. In developed markets, the US Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.51%, the eurozone government bond yield rose slightly to 2.61%, the Japanese government bond yield fell to 1.48%, and the Singapore government bond yield dropped significantly to 2.22%. In emerging markets, the Chinese government bond yield fell slightly to 1.66%, and the Brazilian government bond yield rose significantly to 14.18% [15]. 3.2.4 Commodity Market - The commodity index increased significantly this week. WTI crude oil rose 6.55% to $64.8 per barrel, natural gas rose 9.8%, and the metal sector generally closed higher. COMEX gold rose slightly by 0.47% to $3331 per ounce, LME copper rose 1.82%, and COMEX silver soared 9.4%. The sentiment in the domestic commodity market improved marginally, with the black index rising significantly by 3.9%, and the performance ranking as black > agricultural products > precious metals > non-ferrous metals > industrial products > energy and chemicals [21][22]. 3.3 Weekly Outlook for Asset Classes 3.3.1 Precious Metals - The change in the US foreign tariff policy remains the short-term core focus of the market. Overall, the room for further deterioration of short-term tariffs is limited, causing the gold price to rise first and then fall, with the high point gradually decreasing. The US economic data is mixed, and the Fed officials' statements maintain a hawkish and pause interest rate cut tone, which is bearish for gold from a fundamental perspective. The CFTC gold speculative net long positions stopped falling and rebounded slightly, and the SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased slightly. The London silver price soared last week, and the gold-silver ratio quickly recovered. The silver's catch-up rally may indicate a phased peak for precious metals [31][35][44]. 3.3.2 Foreign Exchange - The economic data released this week showed that the economic fundamentals are under increasing downward pressure, while the labor market remains resilient. The US dollar index is in a tug-of-war, and the Fed is expected to maintain a cautious wait-and-see approach in the short term. The market's expectation of a cooling of trade conflicts has increased, but the second round of trade negotiations may be more difficult than the first. In the short term, the US dollar index will maintain a sideways trend [45]. 3.3.3 US Stocks - The market continued to trade around tariff changes this week. The phone call between Chinese and US leaders released a positive signal, boosting market sentiment in the short term. However, as the expiration of the tariff suspension in July approaches, the risk of increased tariff pressure still exists. The US economic data continues to decline, but there are no obvious signs of deterioration, and the non-farm payroll data on Friday maintained resilience, further alleviating market recession concerns. The market's expectation of the economy is relatively optimistic, but if the inflation data rebounds more than expected next week, it will still bring correction risks to US stocks [50]. 3.3.4 Commodities - This week, the top gainers in the domestic market included silver, coking coal, tin, INE crude oil, coke, low-sulfur fuel oil, LPG, methanol, rubber, and CSI 500, while the top losers included ferrosilicon, urea, pulp, rapeseed oil, ethylene glycol, rapeseed meal, live pigs, PTA, styrene, and corn starch. The gainers were concentrated in the industrial products sector, while the losers were concentrated in agricultural products [61]. 3.3.5 A-shares - Recently, with the success of the market's bet on the "taco" trade, the probability of the outperformance of micro-cap growth stocks has increased, leading to a divergence in industry gains. Among the A-share CITIC first-level industries, 23 rose (20 last week) and 7 fell (10 last week). The leading industry was communications (+5.06%), and the industry with the largest decline was home appliances (-1.75%) [68]. 3.3.6 Treasury Bonds - Although the factors driving the bond market's strength are mainly at the expectation level, and the market may experience fluctuations, the long-term upward trend is relatively clear. Currently, the bond bull market is in the accumulation phase, and it is recommended to adopt a bullish approach [28]. 3.4 Global Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.4.1 Overseas High-Frequency Economic Data Tracking - The GDPNow model predicts that the Q2 growth rate will rebound to 3.8%. As the intensity of import rush fades, the drag of import data on GDP data weakens, and retail sales data remains resilient. The rebound in crude oil prices and tariff pressure have made it difficult to eliminate the market's concerns about long-term economic stagflation risks. The number of initial and continued jobless claims has risen to recent highs, and the unemployment rate may continue to rise in the future. The bank reserve amount has rebounded to $3.4 trillion, the TGA account balance has decreased to $376 billion, and the reverse repurchase scale has remained at around $150 billion. The financial market liquidity has turned loose, and corporate spreads have declined. The US economy has not fully weakened, and inflation still has the risk of rebounding. It is expected that the Fed will maintain a cautious wait-and-see approach, and the market has basically priced in the suspension of interest rate cuts in May and June, with only a 51.8% probability of interest rate cuts starting in September [89][98][106]. 3.4.2 Domestic High-Frequency Economic Data Tracking - This week, the sales volume of first-hand housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities declined more than seasonally. The number and price of second-hand housing listings were both weak. Automobile sales declined slightly year-on-year, while international oil prices fluctuated slightly upward to around $68 per barrel. In terms of capital interest rates, as of the close on April 30, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1-week were 1.84%, 1.80%, 1.76%, and 1.76% respectively, with changes of +18.09, +16.28, +19.30, and +12.40 bp compared to the previous weekend's close. In terms of repurchase transactions, the average daily trading volume of interbank pledged repurchase this week was 5.46 trillion yuan, 196.1 billion yuan less than last week (5.66 trillion yuan), and the overnight proportion was 78.44%, lower than the previous week's level (77.10%). In April, the economic data weakened. The growth rate of social retail sales decreased from the previous value of 5.9% to 5.1%, and the cumulative investment growth rate of the manufacturing industry from January to April decreased by 0.3% compared to the previous value. The cumulative infrastructure growth rate also decreased slightly to 10.9%. In April, the new RMB credit weakened. The new medium and long-term loans of the household sector turned negative again, and the phenomenon of household deleveraging still exists. The medium and long-term loans of the enterprise sector decreased significantly year-on-year, and the corporate bonds increased slightly year-on-year in a low-interest rate environment. The new government bonds increased significantly year-on-year in April, indicating that fiscal policy is front-loaded this year. The M2 growth rate rebounded significantly, while the M1 growth rate fluctuated at a low level, and the level of currency activation remained low. In April, China's CPI同比 decreased by 0.1%, and the core CPI同比 increased by 0.5%. The PPI同比 decreased by 2.7%. China's exports in April (in US dollars) increased by 8.1% year-on-year, and the import growth rate was -0.2% [113][126][137][144][151].

欧洲央行执委施纳贝尔：：贸易冲突或将降低当地通胀。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，加拿大央行周三宣布维持基准利率在2.75%不变，这是连续第二次会议维持利率水 平不变。尽管如此，央行官员也明确表示，若美国关税措施拖累经济增长、通胀保持受控，不排除未来 降息的可能性。 尽管加拿大联邦政府对部分美国进口商品征收了报复性关税，麦克勒姆指出，这些关税目前对消费者价 格的直接影响仍未明显体现。他补充称，目前加方的报复性措施远低于政府预计的200亿加元规模。 麦克勒姆透露，政策委员会在本次会议上达成了暂停加息的一致意见，同时也就未来政策路径展开了讨 论，意见出现分歧。他指出："如果美国关税持续、经济承压、通胀压力受控，我们可能有必要下调政 策利率。" 这是加拿大央行首次在当前货币宽松周期中，明确释放未来可能降息的信号。虽然未在声明中提供关于 GDP和通胀的具体预测值(自新冠疫情以来首次如此)，整体语气显示出一定的鸽派倾向。 此次决议符合市场普遍预期和彭博社调查中大多数经济学家的预测。加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆领导的货 币政策委员会表示，在美国总统特朗普发起的贸易冲突持续影响经济之际，当前维持利率有助于观察更 多经济数据和政策影响。 加拿大央行在声明中指出，特朗普政府对加拿大出口产品加征 ...

加拿大央行维持关键利率不变 但未来可能降息 金十数据6月4日讯，加拿大央行周三将关键基准利率维持在2.75%不变，称有必要调查美国贸易政策的 影响，但表示，如果经济因关税而走弱，可能有必要再次降息。这一决定标志着加拿大央行连续第二次 持观望态度，此前9个月的大幅降息周期将利率已下调了225个基点。加拿大央行行长在新闻发布会上 说："美国发起的贸易冲突仍然是加拿大经济面临的最大逆风。"他形容美国的贸易政策高度不可预测。 他表示："在我们获得更多信息的同时，我们有一个明确的共识，即保持政策不变。" ...

机构观点 恒泰期货： 消息面 卫星数据显示，2024年5月26日-6月1日期间，澳大利亚、巴西七个主要港口铁矿石库存总量1308.0万 吨，环比下降109.4万吨，库存高位回落，但绝对量仍小幅略高于二季度以来的平均水平。 2025年5月26日-6月1日中国47港铁矿石到港总量2597.4万吨，环比增加253.3万吨；中国45港铁矿石到港 总量2536.5万吨，环比增加385.2万吨；北方六港铁矿石到港总量1540.8万吨，环比增加482.0万吨。 5月30日，全国主港铁矿石成交73.7万吨，环比减少32.2%；远期现货成交63.0万吨。 本期全球铁矿石发运总量环比回落，但主流矿山发运量保持平稳回升态势，需求端铁水产量连续三周下 行，基本面边际走弱。钢材现实需求继续走弱，五大钢材整体面临供增需减格局，成材下跌使得对原料 采购刚需减少。铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库，说明当前240的高铁水仍旧能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁水 持续回落状况。特朗普再次提高钢铁关税至50%，资金和情绪端持续表现出偏空，关注市场对关税的消 化反应以及减产的推进程度，本轮贸易冲突缓和带来的反弹行情里已经介入空单的投资者，则继续持 有。 供给上，全球 ...

| 铁矿：本期全球铁矿石发运总量环比回落，但主流矿山发运量保持平稳回 | 升态势，需求端铁水产量连续三周下行，基本面边际走弱。钢材现实需求 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 继续走弱，五大钢材整体面临供增需减格局，成材下跌使得对原料采购刚 | 铁矿石 | 偏空 | 需减少。铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库，说明当前 | 240 | 的高铁水仍旧能驱动港 | | | | | | | | | 口去库，关注后续铁水持续回落状况。特朗普再次提高钢铁关税至 | 50%， | 资金和情绪端持续表现出偏空，关注市场对关税的消化反应以及减产的推 | | | | | | | | | | | | 进程度，本轮贸易冲突缓和带来的反弹行情里已经介入空单的投资者，则 | 继续持有。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 煤焦：焦煤产量高位，下游补库动力不足，523 | 家样本矿山原煤库存刷出 | 历年新高，随着铁水产量下滑以及焦煤供应的持续增加，远月 | ...

美国政府肆意对贸易伙伴挥舞"关税大棒"，在美国国内遭到普遍质疑。贸易冲突导致美国企业界和业内人士对经济前景的悲观情绪持续蔓延，给美国经济带 来巨大不确定性。 美企CEO信心指数创近50年来最大跌幅 美国经济研究机构"世界大型企业联合会"日前发布数据显示，美国2025年第二季度首席执行官信心指数从此前的60点跌至34点，为2022年第四季度以来的最 低水平，这也是该调查自1976年启动以来的最大环比降幅。外界普遍认为，该指数低于50表明首席执行官对经济前景持悲观态度。 因贸易局势紧张国际航协下调盈利预期 国际航空运输协会理事长威利·沃尔什：现实情况是，任何面临关税的企业都会思考自己能消化多少成本，又有多少可能转嫁给消费者。我理解制造商面临 关税成本的压力，他们显然会尽力做出最优决策，但归根结底，我认为消费者最终将不得不为行业面临的任何成本上涨买单。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 国际航空运输协会6月1日下调了2025年行业盈利预期，称全球航空公司今年的总利润预计将为360亿美元，略低于去年12月预测的366亿美元，并将盈利预期 下降归咎于贸易紧张局势和消费者信心下降。国际航空运输协会理事长威利·沃尔什同时指出，关税将 ...