【环球时报报道 记者 陈子帅】据中国外交部消息，应瑞士政府邀请，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副 总理何立峰将于5月9日至12日访问瑞士，与瑞士领导人及有关方面举行会谈。访瑞期间，何立峰副总理 作为中美经贸中方牵头人，将与美方牵头人美国财政部长贝森特举行会谈。中国外交部发言人7日介绍 说，这次会谈是应美方请求举行的。 路透社援引两名知情人士的话称，谈判预计将讨论全面降低关税。其中一名消息人士称，双方还将商讨 取消特定产品关税、此前被美国取消的中国商品小额豁免政策，以及中国对美国公司的出口管制。 在接受福克斯新闻采访时，贝森特坦言，美国对华的145%关税和中国对美的125%关税相当于"禁运"。 他还称："我们不希望'脱钩'，我们要的是公平贸易。" "中国同意和美国接触有利于更好传达我方立场。但这不等于谈判，也不意味着让步。"复旦大学美国研 究中心副主任、教授宋国友7日对《环球时报》记者表示，无论是接触、会谈还是未来可能的谈判，中 方都将维护自身利益，"这是中方考虑到国际经济发展以及中美两国互动而采取的善意举措"。 路透社提到，这将是今年3月中国国务院总理李强在北京会见美国联邦参议员戴安斯以来，中美高级别 官员再次见 ...

行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 精 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 2025年5月7日 研究所晨会观点精萃 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 宏观金融：中美将就贸易问题进行接触，提振国内风险偏好 萃 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 【宏观】 海外方面，因美国 3 月贸易逆差扩大至创纪录的 1405 亿美元，且美国 总统和财长贝森特的讲话几乎未提供达成任何贸易协议的明确时间表，美元短期 走弱，全球风险偏好有所降温。国内方面，商务部表示在充分考虑全球期待、中 方利益、美国业界和消费者呼吁的基础上，中方决定同意与美方进行接触，中美 高官将在瑞士会晤，中美贸易谈判接触信号短期有利提振国内风险偏好和人民币 汇 ...

Core Insights - The recent fluctuations in gold prices have surprised many, with prices rising sharply after a brief decline following the May Day holiday [2][3] - The volatility in gold prices is influenced by various factors, including geopolitical tensions, economic data from the U.S., and central bank purchasing behavior [5][6] Price Fluctuations - Gold prices experienced a significant drop from a historical high of $3509.9 per ounce on April 22 to $3220 per ounce by May 4, marking an 8% decrease [2] - Following the holiday, gold prices rebounded sharply, with spot gold rising over $80 to exceed $3360 per ounce on May 6, representing a 2.75% increase in just one day [3] Factors Behind Price Changes - The announcement of a 100% tariff on imported films by Trump led to a sell-off in U.S. entertainment stocks, prompting investors to seek refuge in gold [5] - Mixed economic indicators from the U.S., including a decline in GDP and rising unemployment claims, have shifted expectations towards potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, weakening the dollar and increasing gold demand [5] - Geopolitical instability, including conflicts in the Middle East and ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, has further driven investors towards gold as a safe haven [5] Central Bank Activity - Central banks globally have increased their gold purchases, with a reported 12% increase in gold buying in Q4 2024 compared to the previous year [6] - India's gold reserves now account for over 9% of its total reserves, indicating a trend of reducing reliance on the dollar and increasing demand for gold [6] Implications for Retail Investors - The volatility in gold prices poses risks for retail investors, as rapid price changes can lead to significant losses [7] - While some consumers have taken advantage of lower prices to purchase gold jewelry and bars, the resale value of such items often does not match the purchase price, making it a less favorable investment [7] - The fluctuations in gold prices serve as a reminder of the complexities of financial markets, suggesting that investors should seek expert analysis before making investment decisions [7][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The pressure of weakening external demand is emerging, and the bond market is expected to strengthen in an oscillatory manner. The negative impact of trade frictions is starting to show, with the official manufacturing PMI in April falling short of expectations. Most economic indicators are expected to weaken in the first half of May, and the bullish logic for the bond market is certain. Although high - frequency indicators related to domestic demand perform well, their impact on the bond market is limited. The marginal easing of trade conflicts mainly affects market expectations and sentiment. Once negative news causes the bond market to fall, it presents a buying opportunity [2][14][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Review and Outlook - **This Week's Trend Review**: From April 21 - 27, treasury bond futures oscillated upwards. On Monday, with a relatively balanced capital market and a slight upward revision of broad - money expectations, treasury bond futures rose. On Tuesday, with a calm news environment and balanced capital, the market expected the April PMI to weaken, leading to a significant rise in treasury bond futures. On Wednesday, although the April manufacturing PMI was below expectations, treasury bond futures slightly corrected as the market had already priced in the news. By April 30, the settlement prices of the main continuous contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.368, 106.100, 109.050, and 120.840 yuan respectively, up 0.058, 0.125, 0.245, and 1.020 yuan from the previous weekend [1][13] - **Next Week's Outlook**: The market is still a mix of bullish and bearish factors, but the bullish force is expected to prevail, and treasury bond futures may attempt to break upwards. Negative factors mainly affect market expectations and sentiment. Once negative news causes the bond market to fall, it is a good opportunity for bulls to increase positions. Most economic indicators are expected to weaken in the first half of May, and the bullish logic for the bond market is clear. If some indicators exceed market expectations, the bond market may fall temporarily, presenting a buying opportunity [14][15] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds - **Primary Market**: This week, 32 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 1350.92 billion yuan and a net financing of 1346.97 billion yuan, a change of - 5406.91 billion yuan and + 2149.45 billion yuan from last week respectively. 29 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 930.92 billion yuan and a net financing of 926.97 billion yuan, a change of - 980.31 billion yuan and - 698.15 billion yuan from last week respectively. 168 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance of 2493.40 billion yuan and a net financing of - 859.70 billion yuan, a change of - 7184.40 billion yuan and - 2631.10 billion yuan from last week respectively [23] - **Secondary Market**: Most treasury bond yields declined. By April 30, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.45%, 1.51%, 1.63%, and 1.83% respectively, down 3.76, 3.99, 3.25, and 9.75 basis points from the previous weekend. The 10Y - 1Y spread compressed by 4.17bp to 16.80bp, the 10Y - 5Y spread widened by 0.74bp to 12.19bp, and the 30Y - 10Y spread compressed by 6.50bp to 19.96bp. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.57%, 1.57%, and 1.66% respectively, down 0.44, 3.75, and 3.56bp from the previous weekend [28][29] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest**: Treasury bond futures oscillated upwards. By April 30, the settlement prices of the main continuous contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.368, 106.100, 109.050, and 120.840 yuan respectively, up 0.058, 0.125, 0.245, and 1.020 yuan from the previous weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 41761, 59303, 65919, and 83215 lots respectively, with changes of + 1358, + 7676, - 377, and - 20221 lots from the previous weekend. The open interests were 146910, 205789, 236575, and 133653 lots respectively, with changes of + 3958, + 2418, + 13819, and + 4959 lots from the previous weekend [38][41] - **Basis and IRR**: A positive - carry strategy for short - term varieties is recommended. The IRR of short - term varieties has been running at a relatively high level. After the capital market gradually loosens at the end of Q1, the cost - effectiveness of the positive - carry strategy becomes more prominent [45] - **Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads**: By April 30, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures contracts 2506 - 2509 were - 0.264, - 0.300, - 0.145, and - 0.270 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.010, - 0.010, + 0.020, and 0.000 yuan from the previous weekend. The futures roll - over rhythm is fast, and the open interest of the 06 contract significantly exceeds the seasonal level of previous contracts. The roll - over pressure is high, and the spread of TS2506 - 09 is expected to continue to decline [48] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - The central bank conducted 11503 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations this week, with 5045 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 6458 billion yuan. By April 30, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.84%, 1.80%, 1.76%, and 1.76% respectively, up 18.09, 16.28, 19.30, and 12.40 basis points from the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase this week was 5.46 trillion yuan, 196.1 billion yuan less than last week, and the overnight proportion was 78.44%, lower than the previous week's level [53][55][57] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the yield of 10Y US treasury bonds rose slightly. By May 2, the US dollar index rose 0.46% to 100.0424 from the previous weekend. The yield of 10Y US treasury bonds was 4.33%, up 4 basis points from the previous weekend, and the yield spread between Chinese and US 10Y treasury bonds was inverted by 254 basis points. There are signs of easing in trade conflicts, and both the US dollar and the RMB exchange rates strengthened slightly. The better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls data in April led the market to lower its expectations for the Fed's interest - rate cuts, causing the US treasury bond yields to rise slightly [61][62] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices fell across the board. By April 30, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3478.21, 6106.89, and 1621.01 points respectively, down 61.07, 41.83, and 35.59 points from the previous weekend. Agricultural product prices also fell. By April 30, the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 20.59, 4.39, and 7.59 yuan/kg respectively, down 0.19, 0.19, and 0.13 yuan/kg from the previous weekend [65] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - Adopt a bullish approach towards the bond market, focus on the strategy of buying on dips. Consider the positive - carry opportunities of short - term varieties. Wait for the right - hand signal for the curve - steepening strategy. Pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the spread of TS06 - 09 [2]

自4月以来，特朗普多次对中国输美商品进行加征关税，如今关税已加到245%，无疑是宣布终止与中国进行贸易。 但特朗普加征关税的行为，正如人民网近日的一组漫画阐述的观点一样，等于是搬起石头砸自己的脚。 库克称，受美国关税政策影响，预计苹果在第三财季（2025年3月30日至6月28日）将损失约9亿美元，这笔金额相当于65亿人民币。 这反映了苹果作为高度依赖中国供应链的美国企业，当前正面临的困境，更揭示了特朗普对华加征245%关税政策，也会对美国科技领军企业造成系统性的 冲击。 受关税政策，中国有很多企业受到了一定影响，但同时美国科技公司也受到了同等的影响，苹果便是其中之一。 苹果CEO库克在2025财年第二财季财报电话会议上的表态如同一记警钟，震撼了整个科技产业界。 苹果之所以会出现约65亿的巨额损失，主要是因为关税政策会导致美国市场的iPhone成本翻倍，受此影响下，苹果似乎也只有两条路可以走。 第一种是将关税成本全额转嫁给消费者，届时美国市场的iPhone可能面临翻倍涨幅，如此一来美国消费者购买iPhone的频次就会大幅降低。 另一种是苹果通过在全球市场涨价的方式，弥补美国关税造成的损失，但在其它国家和地区涨价 ...

保罗·沃尔克（资料图） 据每日经济新闻报道，隔夜美股三大指数延续反弹，纳指涨2.5%，标普500涨1.67%，道指涨1.07%。大型科技股全线走高，特斯拉涨5.37%，亚马逊、英伟 达分别涨超4%和3%，Meta、苹果涨幅均超2%。 市场情绪受特朗普缓和关税言论及撤回解雇鲍威尔表态提振，但盘中冲高回落反映政策疑虑仍存。IBM、德州仪器等财报后走势分化，市场等待苹果、亚 马逊等巨头业绩指引。纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨2.93%，连续两日跑赢大盘。小鹏汽车涨7.34%，蔚来涨超4%。 美国劳工部公布的数据显示，上周初请失业金人数为22.2万人，略高于市场预期的22万人，显示就业市场依旧具备韧性。同时，美国3月耐用品订单环比增 长9.2%，创下近九个月来最大涨幅，但分析人士表示，部分增长可能源于企业提前应对贸易风险，未必代表终端需求回暖。商品市场方面，COMEX黄金 期货结算价上涨54.5美元，报每盎司3348.60美元，涨幅1.65%。国际原油价格温和走高，纽约WTI 6月合约收涨0.84%，报每桶62.79美元；伦敦布伦特6月合 约上涨0.65%，报每桶66.55美元。 美股交易（资料图） 特朗普关税令这场贸易冲 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Plains City Leading Index (CCL) has shown a slight increase of 0.25% to 136.71 points, reflecting a cautious market sentiment amid ongoing trade tensions between China and the U.S. [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The CCL has risen for two consecutive weeks, totaling an increase of 0.26%, but the growth remains modest as the index has fluctuated around the 136-point level for five weeks [1] - Concerns over escalating trade conflicts have led to a cautious attitude among buyers, while sellers are optimistic about potential interest rate cuts, resulting in a stalemate in negotiations [1] - The market has seen a significant reduction in second-hand transactions due to the depletion of affordable listings, leading to price contention [1] Group 2: Price Index Performance - The CCL is currently 3.71 points or 2.71% above the second-quarter target of 133 points, remaining at an 8.5-year low [1] - The CCL has decreased by 0.68% in 2025, with specific declines noted in various categories: CCL Mass down 0.75%, CCL (small units) down 0.56%, and CCL (large units) down 1.21% [2] - The CCL Mass index stands at 137.09 points, having dropped 0.11% weekly and 0.84% over four weeks, while the CCL (small units) has stabilized after three weeks of decline [2]

欧盟贸易专员马罗什.谢夫乔维奇表示，欧盟可能考虑增加约565亿美元的美国商品进口，以缩小美国的 贸易逆差，降低美国加征关税的风险。谢夫乔维奇正在领导欧盟与美国特朗普政府的关税谈判。他说， 考虑到美国对欧盟的服务出口，美国与欧盟27国的贸易逆差为每年约565亿美元。他认为，可以通过增 加欧盟自美国的商品进口来消除这一差距，从而缓解贸易冲突。(智通财经) ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sales for Q1 2025 were $1,730 million, essentially flat compared to Q1 2024, with organic sales down 1% and acquisitions contributing 1% [6][8] - Operating income increased by 2% to $455 million, with operating margins at 26.3%, up 60 basis points year-over-year [7][8] - EBITDA rose by 3% to $559 million, with EBITDA margins at 32.2% [7][8] - Free cash flow was $394 million, representing a conversion rate of 112% of net income, up 3% from the previous year [8][26] - Diluted earnings per share increased by 7% to $1.75, exceeding the guidance range [8][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - **Electronic Instruments Group (EIG)**: Sales were $1,140 million, down 1% year-over-year, with operating income slightly up to $354.1 million and operating margins at 31%, up 50 basis points [9] - **Electromechanical Group (EMG)**: Achieved record sales of $588.3 million, up 2% year-over-year, with operating income increasing by 7% to $128.7 million and operating margins at 21.9%, up 120 basis points [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Orders overall were up 8% in the quarter, with organic orders increasing by 3% [6][40] - The U.S. market showed positive growth, while international markets experienced modest declines, particularly in China, which was down about 10% [46][48] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to invest an additional $85 million in 2025 to support global and market expansion strategies, focusing on research, development, and engineering [11][28] - Strategic acquisitions remain the top priority for capital deployment, with a robust pipeline of candidates [15][72] - The company is committed to mitigating tariff impacts through various strategies, including localization of production and pricing initiatives [21][55] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating the uncertain economic environment, citing a strong start to the year and improving order patterns [16][22] - The company anticipates full-year sales to increase by low single digits compared to 2024, with diluted earnings per share expected to rise by 3% to 5% [21][22] Other Important Information - The effective tax rate for Q1 was 19%, consistent with the previous year, and capital expenditures for the year are expected to be approximately $155 million [24][25] - The company announced an 11% increase in its quarterly cash dividend to $0.31 per share, marking the sixth consecutive year of significant annual increases [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Details on Paragon and Medical-related businesses - Management noted that Paragon has seen a notable inflection in orders, with overall orders in the medical segment up 25% in the quarter, indicating a recovery from previous destocking [36][38] Question: Order cadence and demand destruction - Overall orders were up 8%, with organic orders up 3%, indicating continued improvement without significant demand destruction [40][41] Question: Geographic performance and market conditions - Positive growth was observed in the U.S., while modest declines were noted in Europe and Asia, particularly a 10% decline in China [46][48] Question: Tariff impacts and mitigation strategies - The company estimates a $100 million annual tariff impact, with plans to offset this through various mitigation actions [52][55] Question: Margin trajectory for EMG and Paragon - Management expects upside in margins for Paragon in the second half of the year due to ongoing improvement plans and increased volume [67][68] Question: Capital allocation and M&A activity - The company remains active in its M&A pipeline, with a focus on strategic acquisitions despite market uncertainties [71][72]

欧元兑美元RSI指标读数为61.0019，处于中性偏强区域，但尚未达到超买水平(通常为70以上)，表明短 期内仍有上行空间。ATR指标显示当前波动率维持在相对较低的水平，进一步佐证了市场处于盘整阶段 的判断。从形态上看，价格近期在1.1270附近形成了一个可能的支撑区域，如果能够守住这一水平，汇 价可能会尝试向上突破1.1410阻力位。而下方支撑除了1.1270外，还有1.1020的强支撑位置，这与之前 的盘整高点相吻合。 欧元区经济在第一季度仅实现0.2%的微弱增长，复苏前景被搁置，风险偏向负面结果。 欧洲央行副行 长路易斯·德·金多斯表示，贸易相关的"异常不确定性"加剧了风险，出口商面临新障碍，商业投资可能 受到抑制，消费者也可能变得更加谨慎。 芬兰央行行长奥利·雷恩指出，欧洲央行此前列出的许多负面 风险已经显现，贸易冲突及其带来的巨大不确定性正在拖累经济增长。 尽管两人均未主张采取政策宽 松措施，但雷恩表示，如果通胀率预计将低于欧洲央行的目标，利率可能会下调。两人还提到，贸易冲 突可能会抑制价格并减缓通胀，通胀率已接近欧洲央行2%的目标。贸易壁垒已经降低了能源价格并推 高了欧元汇率，给价格带来下行压力。 ...