Core Points - The US and EU have reached a significant trade agreement, marking the end of months of trade uncertainty [2][4] - The agreement includes a 15% uniform tariff, $600 billion in investments, and $750 billion in energy purchases from the US [4][6] - The deal is seen as a major win for President Trump, who claims it is the largest agreement of its kind [4][7] Trade Agreement Details - The agreement stipulates a 15% tariff on EU products entering the US, with key industries exempted [4][11] - The EU will increase investments in the US by $600 billion and purchase $750 billion worth of US energy products [4][6] - The agreement is expected to benefit the automotive industry and have significant implications for agriculture and the semiconductor sector [4][6] Reactions from EU Officials - EU Commission President von der Leyen stated that the agreement is the best possible outcome given the current circumstances [6] - There are concerns within the EU about the reliance on US liquefied natural gas and the impact of the 15% tariff on the overall EU GDP [12][14] - Some EU officials express dissatisfaction, arguing that the agreement does not align with Europe's fundamental interests and may cause long-term harm [14][15] Market Implications - The agreement alleviates fears of a transatlantic trade war, providing a sense of predictability for financial markets [17][20] - Analysts suggest that the deal is a moderate positive for the stock market, as much of the content may have already been priced in [21] - The removal of the risk of further tariff increases is seen as a significant macroeconomic relief [19][20] Future Considerations - Attention will shift to the interpretation and execution of the agreement, which may present political and technical challenges [23] - The potential for ongoing uncertainty remains, as highlighted by some analysts [22]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report offers daily insights and trend analyses for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy products, agricultural products, etc. It assesses each commodity's price trends, supported by fundamental data and macro - industry news, and gives a trend strength rating for each commodity [2][4]. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - Gold is expected to oscillate downward, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][7][8]. - Silver is predicted to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 0 [2][7][8]. Base Metals - Copper: Domestic inventory reduction restricts price decline, with a trend strength of 0 [2][10][12]. - Zinc: High - level oscillation, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][13][15]. - Lead: Lacks driving force, price oscillates, with a trend strength of 0 [2][16][17]. - Tin: Prices are disturbed by floods in Wa State, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][19][22]. - Aluminum: High - level oscillation; Alumina has intense long - short game; Casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Aluminum trend strength is 0, Alumina is - 1, and Aluminum alloy is 0 [2][24][26]. - Nickel: Macro expectations determine the direction, fundamentals limit elasticity, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel is dominated by macro sentiment, and the real - world situation needs repair, with a trend strength of 0 [2][27][31]. Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: Commodity prices fell on Friday night, pay attention to the spread of pessimistic sentiment, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][32][34]. - Industrial Silicon: Sentiment declines, pay attention to the risk of sharp decline, with a trend strength of - 1; Polysilicon: Sentiment declines, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][35][37]. - Iron Ore: Supported by macro expectations, strong - biased oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][38]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Resonance in sector market, strong - biased oscillation, with a trend strength of 1 for both [2][40][42]. - Ferrosilicon: Disturbed by energy consumption and carbon emission information, strong - biased trend, with a trend strength of 1; Silicomanganese: Disturbed by industry's cut - throat competition information, strong - biased trend, with a trend strength of 1 [2][45][47]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Emotions are realized, wide - range oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][48][50]. - Steam Coal: Daily consumption recovers, oscillates and stabilizes, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52][55]. Others - Logs: Oscillate repeatedly [2][56].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to oscillate and decline, with a trend strength of -1 [2][7]. - Silver is predicted to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 0 [2][7]. - For copper, the decrease in domestic inventory restricts price decline, and its trend strength is 0 [2][11]. - Zinc is likely to experience high - level oscillations, with a trend strength of -1 [2][14]. - Lead lacks driving forces, and its price will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][16]. - Tin prices are disturbed by the flood in Wa State, and its trend strength is -1 [2][21]. - Aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, with a trend strength of 0; alumina has intense multi - empty games, with a trend strength of -1; cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, with a trend strength of 0 [2][25]. - For nickel, macro - expectations determine the direction, and fundamentals limit the elasticity, with a trend strength of 0; for stainless steel, macro - sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Price and Trading Data - Gold: Yesterday, the closing prices of沪金2510, 黄金T+D, Comex黄金2510, and London gold spot were 777.32, 773.61, 3338.50, and 3336.68 respectively, with daily declines of 0.18%, 0.19%, 0.97%, and 0.97% [5]. - Silver: Yesterday, the closing prices of沪银2510, 白银T+D, Comex白银2510, and London silver spot were 9392, 9372, 38.325, and 38.158 respectively, with daily changes of 0.06%, 0.22%, - 2.44%, and - 2.40% [5]. Macro and Industry News - The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, with a 15% tariff covering most EU goods exported to the US [5]. - The US June durable goods orders preliminary monthly decline was - 9.3%, the largest since the pandemic, dragged down by aircraft orders [8]. - It is reported that after the Japan - US agreement, the Bank of Japan may restart interest rate hikes this year [8]. - China's June industrial enterprise profits above designated size saw a narrowed year - on - year decline to 4.3%, with the equipment manufacturing industry playing a prominent supporting role, and the automobile industry's profit increasing by 96.8% [8]. Copper Price and Trading Data - Yesterday, the closing prices of沪铜主力合约 and 伦铜3M电子盘 were 79,250 and 9,796 respectively, with daily declines of 0.80% and 0.59% [9]. Macro and Industry News - Trump said the possibility of reaching an agreement with the EU was 50%, then changed his statement, expecting most agreements to be completed before August, and the possibility of Canada reaching a new agreement before the deadline is low [9]. - Anglo Asian Mining's Demirli copper mine in Azerbaijan started trial production, with an expected copper concentrate output of 4,000 tons in 2025 [9]. - At least four copper - carrying ships were trying to reach US ports before August 1 to avoid a 50% import tariff on copper [11]. Zinc Price and Trading Data - Yesterday, the closing prices of沪锌主力合约 and 伦锌3M电子盘 were 22,885 and 2,829 respectively, with daily declines of 0.56% and 0.40% [12]. News - China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs clarified its position on China - EU differences such as so - called "over - capacity" and industrial subsidies [13]. Lead Price and Trading Data - Yesterday, the closing prices of沪铅主力合约 and 伦铅3M电子盘 were 16,955 and 2,020.5 respectively, with a daily increase of 0.38% for沪铅主力合约 and a decline of 0.12% for 伦铅3M电子盘 [15]. News - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) said that in May 2025, the global lead market had a supply surplus of 1,000 tons, compared with a supply shortage of 6,000 tons in April [16]. Tin Price and Trading Data - Yesterday, the closing prices of沪锡主力合约 and 伦锡3M电子盘 were 271,630 and 34,140 respectively, with daily declines of 0.85% and 1.50% [19]. Macro and Industry News - Similar to gold and silver, including US - EU trade agreement, US durable goods orders decline, Japan's possible interest rate hike, China's industrial enterprise profit situation, etc. [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy Price and Trading Data - For aluminum, the closing price of沪铝主力合约 was 20,760, and other related data such as trading volume, inventory, and spreads are provided [23]. - For alumina, the closing price of沪氧化铝主力合约 was 3428, and relevant data are also presented [23]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the closing price of the alloy主力合约 was 20,135, and related data are included [23]. Comprehensive News - China's June industrial enterprise profits above designated size had a narrowed decline, and the automobile industry's profit increased significantly [25]. - Trump believed that Powell would start suggesting interest rate cuts [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel Price and Trading Data - For nickel, the closing price of沪镍主力 was 124,360, and various related industrial chain data are provided [26]. - For stainless steel, the closing price of the stainless steel主力 was 13,030, and relevant data are also given [26]. Macro and Industry News - In March, Ontario, Canada's Premier Ford threatened to stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [26]. - In April, China Enfei's EPC - contracted Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project started trial production, with an annual metal nickel output of about 12,500 tons per single line [27]. - Environmental violations were found in the Indonesian Morowali Industrial Park, and the relevant department may fine the confirmed illegal companies and audit the entire park [27]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [28]. - The Indonesian government - approved 2025 RKAB production for nickel mines was 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target [28]. - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, expected to affect nickel - iron output by about 1900 metal tons per month [28]. - The Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry requires mining and coal companies to resubmit the 2026 RKAB starting from October 2025 [29].

原油2509： 1.基本面：美国与欧盟周日达成一项框架贸易协议，对欧盟大多数商品征收15%的进口关税，仅为威胁税率 的一半，从而避免了这两个盟友之间爆发更大规模的贸易战；中美两国高级谈判代表周一将在瑞典斯德哥 尔摩举行会晤，以解决作为世界前两大经济体贸易战核心的长期经济争端，旨在延长8月12日的关税临时 "休战"协议期限，避免大幅提高关税；四名OPEC+代表称，OPEC+联合部长级监督委员会不太可能在周一 开会时改变现有增产计划，并指出该联盟渴望恢复市场份额，而夏季需求正帮助吸收多余的石油供应；中 性 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-28原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 2.基差：7月25 ...

Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 97.51, while spot silver opened at $38.04/oz and is currently around $38.28/oz. Silver T+D is trading at approximately 9181 CNY/kg, and the main Shanghai silver contract is around 9209 CNY/kg [1] - Last Friday, the US dollar index rose by 0.19% to close at 97.67, while spot silver fell by 2.26% to $38.14/oz. The decline in silver was attributed to progress in US-EU trade negotiations, which reduced safe-haven demand [1] Silver Market Data - The SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 22.61 tons to a total of 15,230.43 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - On July 25, the compensation fee payment direction for Ag (T+D) was in favor of longs [2] Trade Agreements and Tariffs - President Trump announced a trade agreement with the EU, which includes a 15% tariff, $600 billion in US investments, and zero tariffs from EU countries on US goods. However, there is ambiguity regarding whether the 15% tariff covers pharmaceuticals and steel/aluminum [3] - The US Commerce Secretary stated that the deadline for tariff increases on August 1 will not be extended, and a decision on chip tariffs will be made within two weeks [4] Silver Market Analysis - The silver market opened last week at $38.108, experienced a slight pullback to $38.061, and then surged to a weekly high of $39.523 before retreating. The weekly low was $37.923, and it closed at $38.163, forming a long upper shadow shooting star pattern, indicating potential bearish sentiment for the upcoming week [5] Upcoming Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators to watch include the UK CBI retail sales balance at 18:00, the OPEC+ ministerial monitoring committee meeting at 20:00, and the US Dallas Fed business activity index at 22:30 [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. has finalized a trade agreement with the EU, imposing a 15% tariff on EU goods entering the U.S. [1] - The EU is expected to increase investments in the U.S. by $600 billion and purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products [1] - The EU will open its $20 trillion market to U.S. automotive and industrial standards, while maintaining current tariffs on steel and aluminum [1] Group 2 - There is still no decision on the spirits sector, and the U.S. will initiate a Section 232 investigation in the pharmaceutical sector [3] - Some EU officials express dissatisfaction with the agreement, arguing it could harm local employment and industry development [3] - Japan has negotiated a reduction in new tariffs from 25% to 15%, with a commitment to invest $550 billion in the U.S. [3] Group 3 - The 15% tariff level is considered high and not sustainable in the long term, contributing to global trade instability [4] - U.S. officials indicate that Trump has the authority to reinstate higher tariffs if other countries fail to meet investment commitments [5]

贵金属周报 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年7月28日 南华期货贵金属周报：倒V反转 剧烈波动 【盘面回顾】上周贵金属市场整体冲高回落，呈现倒V走势。COMEX黄金非商业多头持仓在截至7月22日当 周激增，以及美国黄金白银ETF的大量流入，引发价格在前半周激涨，其背景可能是受美国贸易关税谈判于8 月1日截止日前的不确定性，以及美联储方面，政府对美联储干预促使美联储独立性原则下的鹰向鸽转变预 期，此外周初日本执政联盟在参议院选举中遭遇历史性失败。 然而周三起盘面逆转，贵金属掉头直下。一方 面，美国关税贸易战趋缓提升市场风险偏好，提振美股走高并短期压制贵金属价格，特朗普通过社交媒体宣 布美国与日本达成贸易协议，对日关税税率为15%及日本5500亿美元对美投资；媒体称欧美接近达成协议、 美将对欧盟征15%关税。 另一方面，国内反内卷政策下，大宗商品与股市普涨，引发资金从传统避险资金流 出，国内黄金ETF于上周持续流出。 接下来市场焦点聚焦于周四美联储FOMC会议，以及周内周四美7月PCE 数据、周五美非农就业报告。 【资金与库存】长线基金持仓看， ...

Group 1 - Japan has reached a bilateral agreement with the United States to lower tariffs, including auto tariffs, to 15%, serving as a reference for the EU negotiations [1][5] - The EU has committed to purchasing $750 billion worth of energy from the US and investing over $600 billion in the US as part of the trade agreement [1][2] - The agreement includes a zero-tariff commitment from the EU and a significant investment in defense equipment, although specific amounts have not been disclosed [2] Group 2 - The 15% tariff rate applies to various sectors, including pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, but the US is still considering new tariffs in these areas [3] - The agreement aims to alleviate trade tensions, as the US had previously threatened to raise tariffs on EU products to 30% [4] - The US is expected to continue negotiations with other major trading partners, including China, Mexico, Canada, South Korea, and India, before the new tax rates take effect [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 40 to close at 4,276 ringgit/ton, a decline of 0.93%; the palm oil 09 contract fell 28 to close at 8,936 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.31%; the soybean oil 09 contract fell 16 to close at 8,144 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.2%; the rapeseed oil 09 contract fell 129 to close at 9,457 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.35%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 0.34 to close at 55.92 cents/pound, an increase of 0.61%; the ICE canola active contract rose 1 to close at 699.9 Canadian dollars/ton, an increase of 0.14% [3][6]. - The domestic oil and fat sector fluctuated slightly lower, with rapeseed oil performing the weakest. The implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy, low ending inventory, and potential Indian import demand support palm oil. The continuous expansion of US crushing capacity and expected increase in biodiesel demand boost the soybean oil market. The good rapeseed production prospects in Canada and the EU suppress rapeseed oil. Malaysian palm oil production continued to increase in July, with exports weakening month - on - month, limiting the space for continuous rise, and more long - position funds taking profits, resulting in an overall volatile operation [3][6]. - Macroscopically, after the US reached trade agreements with Indonesia, the Philippines, Japan and other countries, it difficultly reached a tariff agreement with the EU, alleviating market concerns about trade sentiment. China and the US will hold economic and trade negotiations in Sweden. The US stock market fluctuated strongly, the US dollar index fluctuated at a low level, and oil prices fluctuated narrowly. Fundamentally, although supported by the medium - and long - term growth expectations of biodiesel demand in Indonesia and the US, the increasing production of Malaysian palm oil and weakening demand may limit the increase in the short term. Palm oil may fluctuate at a high level in the short term [3][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - The report presents the prices, price changes, and price change rates of multiple contracts (CBOT soybean oil main contract, BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract, DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, CZCE rapeseed oil) from July 18th to July 25th, as well as the spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions and their changes [4]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Production Data**: According to UOB, as of July 20th, Malaysian palm oil production is expected to increase by 5 - 9%. MPOA data shows that from July 1 - 20th, production increased by 11.24% compared to the same period last month. SPPOMA data shows that from July 1 - 20th, 2025, the fresh fruit bunch yield increased by 7.03%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.16%, and palm oil production increased by 6.19% [7]. - **Export Data**: According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 25th decreased by 9.2% compared to the same period last month. AmSpec data shows a 15.22% month - on - month decrease. SGS data shows a 35.99% decrease in exports from July 1 - 20th compared to the same period last month. Indonesia's palm oil exports increased significantly in May and June, with exports to India and China rising strongly. MPOB expects Malaysia's palm oil production and exports to increase in 2025, while GAPKI expects Indonesia's exports to decline [8][9]. - **Inventory and Demand Data**: As of July 18th, the total inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions increased. The weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased slightly. Although there is long - term support from biodiesel demand in Indonesia and the US, the increasing production and weakening demand of Malaysian palm oil may limit price increases in the short term [10]. 3.3 Industry News - The FAO's "2025 - 34 Agricultural Outlook" points out that due to sustainability issues and the aging of oil palm trees in Indonesia and Malaysia, the growth rate of global palm oil production is expected to slow, with a projected annual growth rate of 0.8% [11]. - India has become Malaysia's largest importer of oil palm seeds, and its demand for Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly. MPOC expects the price of crude palm oil to be between 4,100 - 4,300 ringgit next month, and India is expected to import about 2.9 million tons of palm oil in the third quarter to meet festival demand [11][12]. - Indonesia's Ministry of Finance expects an increase in palm oil product exports to the EU in the second half of 2025, as the IEU - CEPA agreement and the US tariff reduction policy will create opportunities for Indonesian exports [12]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in futures and spot markets, as well as the production, exports, inventory, and import profits of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia [13][18][21] etc.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. The EU will increase its investment in the US by $600 billion, purchase US military equipment, and buy $750 billion worth of US energy products. This will lead to a short - term decline in the US dollar index [15]. - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week, but risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [3]. - The 10 - department joint issuance of the plan to promote agricultural product consumption aims to boost agricultural product consumption through various measures. The decline in industrial enterprise profits in June has narrowed, and the new kinetic energy industry represented by the equipment industry has seen rapid profit growth [17][18]. - The export data of Malaysian palm oil is poor, and the domestic oil mill operating rate is expected to increase. Steel prices have risen significantly due to the continuous increase in coking coal and coke prices and the relatively strong fundamentals of finished products, but there is a risk of overvaluation [5]. - Polysilicon is expected to correct in the short term, and it is advisable to consider short - selling lightly through options [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. Trump has the right to restore higher tariff levels if other countries fail to fulfill their investment commitments. The EU hopes to continue discussions on steel and aluminum tariffs with the US. The applicable tariff will be the higher of the "most - favored - nation tariff" or 15%. The short - term market risk preference will moderately recover, and the US dollar index will decline in the short term [13][15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will decline in the short term [16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - 10 departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Agricultural Product Consumption" to promote agricultural product consumption through various measures. In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the decline has narrowed. The new kinetic energy industry represented by the equipment industry has seen rapid profit growth. The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, which may set an example for upcoming China - US tariffs. A Politburo meeting will be held this week, and attention should be paid to its statements on the economic work in the second half of the year [17][18][19]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate stock indexes evenly [20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, but there are still differences in key industry tariffs. The US durable goods orders in June decreased by 9.3% month - on - month, better than the expected - 10.7%. The core data excluding Boeing orders performed well. The US - EU tariff negotiation has accelerated, and the risk of further deterioration of the tariff level has decreased, supporting market risk preference [21][22]. - Investment advice: The trade negotiation is moving in a positive direction, and it will still fluctuate strongly in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of correction [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 601.8 billion yuan. Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week, and the funds are expected to become looser after the end of the month. However, risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [23]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to cautiously bet on the opportunity of oversold rebound next week. Do not be bearish in the long term, but the market will be volatile in Q3, and it may be too early for allocation buyers to go long at present [24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Linfen market is running strongly. The recent futures price increase is mainly due to macro - policies. The National Energy Administration plans to conduct a verification of coal mine production in key coal - producing provinces, but the actual impact of checking over - production may be limited. The price may return to the fundamentals. The supply of coking coal has recovered partially this week, and the coke price has increased for the third time, with some steel mills accepting the increase [25][26]. - Investment advice: The market sentiment for coking coal is still strong, but the risk is high as the price rises significantly. Pay attention to position management [27]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 30th week was 2.2389 million tons, with an operating rate of 62.94%. It is expected to reach 2.3726 million tons and 66.69% in the 31st week. From July 1 - 25, the export of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.23% month - on - month. The production of Malaysian palm oil in July is expected to increase, and the inventory will increase significantly. China may export 100,000 - 120,000 tons of soybean oil to India [28][29]. - Investment advice: The data from Malaysia is bearish for palm oil. It is not recommended to short unilaterally. Consider buying put options or waiting for opportunities to go long at low prices. For international soybean oil, focus on US weather and bio - fuel policies. For domestic soybean oil, if exports to India increase, it will support prices [30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The international sugar price has fluctuated greatly. The expected increase in production in Brazil and India and the rumor of India's export in the 2025/26 season have put pressure on the price. India's sugar export may be unfeasible at current international prices. The sugar mills of Guangxi Nanhua have cleared their warehouses, and the spot price in Guangxi has remained stable with a narrow - range shock. The sugarcane yield in the central - southern region of Brazil has decreased in June [31][33][34]. - Investment advice: The international sugar market is under pressure from supply. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate mainly. Pay attention to the resistance level of 5900 yuan [35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In the first half of 2025, China's cotton product exports increased under pressure. As of mid - July, the pre - sale progress of Brazilian cotton in 2025 was 65%. As of July 17, the weekly net signing of US cotton in the 25/26 season was 30,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 54%. The ICE cotton price is expected to be in a low - level shock pattern in the short term [36][37][39]. - Investment advice: The lack of news about increased import quotas in China, tight old - cotton inventory, and high operating rates in Xinjiang spinning mills will support cotton prices in the short term. However, the demand from inland spinning mills is weakening, and the increase in warehouse receipts and the expectation of increased production in the 25/26 season may limit the upward trend of cotton prices [40]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentina has lowered the export tariffs on soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. The operating rate of domestic oil mills has remained high. China has stopped purchasing US soybeans since the end of May, and the pre - sale of US new - crop soybeans is significantly lower than the normal level in previous years [41][42]. - Investment advice: CBOT soybeans and soybean meal are expected to fluctuate. Focus on the development of the China - US trade war. Soybean meal inventory will continue to accumulate, and the spot basis will remain weak [42]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Most coal mines in Ordos maintained normal production on July 23, and the coal price was stable with a slight increase. The implementation of the over - production policy and high summer temperatures are expected to keep the coal price strong. The power plant's inventory has decreased slightly, and the coal price is expected to return to around the long - term agreement price of 670 yuan [43][44]. - Investment advice: The coal price is expected to remain strong, and it is expected to return to around 670 yuan, the long - term agreement price [44]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron ore production and sales of Mount Gibson in the second quarter decreased year - on - year. Affected by coking coal and coke, the iron ore price has fluctuated strongly, but it has encountered resistance after breaking through $105. The long - term increase in the price center of coking coal and coke will suppress the upside potential of iron ore [45]. - Investment advice: Observe the follow - up of the spot market after the price pull - back. The market sentiment fluctuates greatly, so it is recommended to reduce the position [46]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The fifth blast furnace of Vietnam's Hoa Phat Group's Dung Quat Steel Complex has been put into operation, increasing the annual production capacity by 5.6 million tons. The total new - signed contract value of the top seven construction central enterprises in the first six months exceeded 5.9 trillion yuan. South Korea will impose temporary anti - dumping duties on hot - rolled steel plates imported from China and Japan. Steel prices have risen significantly, but there is a risk of overvaluation [47][49][50]. - Investment advice: Steel prices will remain strong in the short term. It is recommended to observe cautiously [51]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn starch sugar is average, and the operating rate has decreased. The consumption of corn and corn starch has decreased this week [52]. - Investment advice: Starch enterprises may continue to face losses, and the operating rate is expected to remain low. This is not favorable for the rice - flour price difference [53][54]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - In June 2025, the national industrial feed production was 27.67 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. The proportion of corn in compound feed increased by 2.5 percentage points year - on - year. The "anti - involution" policy in the breeding industry may reduce the corn demand in the new year [55]. - Investment advice: The stalemate in the spot market may continue until the new corn is on the market. The 09 contract may weaken in advance. Hold the short positions of new - crop corn and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [55]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limit for the LC2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures. The price of lithium carbonate has increased, and there are rumors about production cuts in some areas. The limit - trading measure is expected to stabilize the market [56][57]. - Investment advice: Before the production cuts are confirmed, there is no upward momentum for the price. Pay attention to the downstream procurement. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of holding inventory and reverse arbitrage [58]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The EU has started monitoring the trade of scrap copper and aluminum. Teck Resources has lowered the production forecast of its Chilean copper mine. Freeport's Indonesian subsidiary has started its new smelter [59][60][61]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, be cautious about the repeated macro - expectations. The copper price is expected to remain high and fluctuate. It is recommended to observe. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [62]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limit, daily limit, margin, and handling fees for industrial silicon and polysilicon futures. The spot price of polysilicon has increased slightly, but the actual transaction has not changed much. The production of polysilicon is expected to increase in July and August, with a monthly surplus of 100,000 - 200,000 tons [63][64][65]. - Investment advice: The delivery price of polysilicon sets a lower limit for the futures price. However, due to the difficulty of the spot price to keep up with the futures price increase, the short - term price is expected to correct. Consider short - selling lightly through options and look for opportunities to go long after the correction [66]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production and operating rate of industrial silicon in Xinjiang, the Northwest, Yunnan, and Sichuan have shown different trends. The social inventory has decreased, and the factory inventory has increased. The supply is expected to increase with the resumption of production, and the supply - demand gap will narrow in August [67][68][69]. - Investment advice: After the price increase, the basis of industrial silicon has weakened rapidly. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling at high prices or selling out - of - the - money call options [69]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Danantara is considering acquiring the GNI smelter in Indonesia. The nickel price has been strong recently but fell on Friday night. There are different statements about Indonesia's nickel export policy. The price of Philippine nickel ore has decreased, and the price of nickel iron has increased, but the steel mills' purchasing intention is not strong [70][71]. - Investment advice: The nickel price is closely related to macro - sentiment. It is recommended to use options for hedging in unilateral trading. Holders can sell for hedging at high prices [72]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - From January to June 2025, the number of electric bicycles recycled and replaced was 8.465 million each. The new national standard for electric bicycles will be implemented on September 1. The overseas macro - situation has limited fluctuations. The supply of primary lead is tight, and the production of secondary lead has increased slightly. The demand from end - users has not improved significantly, but the lead social inventory may turn around [73][74][75]. - Investment advice: In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices and manage the position well. For arbitrage, it is recommended to observe temporarily [76]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The port inventory of zinc concentrate has decreased by 860,000 tons compared with last week. The 0 - 3 cash spread of LME zinc has turned negative, but the注销仓单 is still high. The zinc smelting profit may improve in August, and the supply is expected to remain high. The demand from primary processing industries is differentiated, and the social inventory has increased significantly [77][78]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, the risk is high, and it is recommended to observe. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of medium - term calendar spread positive arbitrage. It is recommended to observe in terms of domestic - foreign trading [79]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On July 25, the closing price of the EUA main contract was 71.34 euros/ton, a 0.65% increase from the previous day and a 2.07% increase from last week. The investment funds reduced their net long positions by 100,000 tons last week. The carbon price is expected to be volatile in the short term [80]. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price will be volatile in the short term [81]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs has decreased. The Middle - East oil price has strengthened relative to Brent. The increase in the Middle - East oil export volume is limited. The strong diesel crack spread and EU sanctions on Russia support the Middle - East oil price [82][83]. - Investment advice: The oil price will remain volatile. Pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting and market risk preference [84]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On July 25, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was slightly adjusted. The supply has increased, and the demand is average. The caustic soda futures price has increased due to the overall positive sentiment in the commodity market, but the increase is limited [85][86]. - Investment advice: The caustic soda valuation is not low, and the speculative demand is difficult to stimulate, resulting in a small increase [86]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp is generally stable, with individual prices increasing slightly. The futures price has continued to rise, but the downstream paper mills' follow - up is not strong, and high - price transactions are difficult [87]. - Investment advice: Due to the "anti - involution" policy, low - valued pulp may be targeted by funds. Investors should pay attention to the risks [88]. 3.