▲ATFX图 走势结构角度看，日线级别，美元指数处于中期空头趋势，最新波段为下跌，但近期又筑底迹象。4月 21日低点97.88点、6月12日低点97.57点、6月24日低点97.67点，三者数值接近，有形成三重底的可能 性。如果在最近两种，美元指数没有破位下跌，反而开始持续反弹（尤其是连续阳线或者大幅度阳 线），则意味着筑底结构有效。不过，从目前的宏观环境来看，美国被牵扯到中东紧张局势之中，可能 再次冲击市场信心，美元指数的反弹缺乏消息面的有力支撑。 ATFX风险提示、免责条款、特别声明： 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。以上内容仅代表分析师个人观点， 不构成任何操作建议。请勿将本报告视为唯一参考依据。在不同时期，分析师的观点可能发生变化，更 新内容不会另行通知。 转自：ATFX 美联储主席鲍威尔在昨日22：00，在美国众议院进行半年度货币政策报告证词。鲍威尔提到："经济前 景的不确定性上升，这在很大程度上反映了对贸易政策的担忧。劳动力市场状况大致处于平衡状态，并 与最大就业保持一致。通货膨胀率已从2022年中期的高点大幅回落，但相对于我们2%的长期目标，仍 有所上升。" 综合来看，鲍威尔的发言比较客观，既考虑到了最 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - **Manufacturing Sector**: June manufacturing PMI has dropped into contraction territory, significantly lower than the levels from 2020 to 2024, indicating increased economic downward pressure which may affect related stock sectors [1][2] - **Real Estate Market**: The real estate market has shown weak performance, with transaction volumes in 30 major cities falling below the levels of the past three years. The second-hand housing price index continues to decline, signaling increased investment risks in the real estate sector [1][3] - **Automotive Market**: The automotive sector is benefiting from new energy and smart vehicle policies, with retail and wholesale sales of passenger cars increasing significantly year-on-year. The full steel tire operating rate is strong, reflecting a high level of prosperity in the automotive industry chain, which is favorable for related company stocks [1][5] - **Steel Industry**: Rebar inventory has been continuously reduced since March, but production remains below the levels of previous years. Although the operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan has rebounded, overall production performance is mixed, necessitating attention to supply and demand changes in the steel industry and their impact on stock prices [1][6] - **Shipping and Trade**: The shipping index for European futures and the SCFI composite index have shown an upward trend, indicating that freight rates are significantly affected by tariffs. Following the Sino-US Geneva meeting, the index has rebounded quickly, highlighting the potential impact of trade policy changes on the shipping sector [1][7] Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Activity Indicators**: Recent high-frequency economic activity indicators have shown volatility, with a notable decline since late March but remaining above 1. The PMI index for June has entered a low season, dropping into contraction territory, significantly below the levels from 2020 to 2024 [2][9] - **Real Estate Transactions**: The real estate market has seen a decline in transaction volumes, with the performance in 30 major cities weaker than the same period in 2022 to 2024. The downward trend in the second-hand housing price index and accelerating decline in transaction volumes indicate rising investment risks [3][9] - **Automotive Sales Growth**: As of mid-June, retail sales of passenger cars have increased by 23% year-on-year, while wholesale sales have risen by 38%. The full steel tire operating rate stands at 65.48%, which is stronger than the levels from 2019 to 2024, second only to the situation in 2020 [5][9] - **Steel Production Trends**: Rebar inventory has been consistently reduced since March, with production levels lower than those in 2022 to 2024. The operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan has shown a rebound, reaching a near-high point in recent years [6][9] - **Trade Recovery Indicators**: The container throughput at Chinese ports has shown signs of recovery, with the Los Angeles port's import container throughput continuing to grow. The positive performance of South Korean export data indicates a revival in global trade activities, which may boost the performance of related logistics companies [4][8][9] Additional Important Insights - **Macroeconomic Conditions**: The overall macroeconomic situation is mixed, with the high-frequency economic activity index rebounding after hitting a low in May, but the EPMI has weakened due to seasonal factors and is significantly below the levels from 2020 to 2024. The real estate market is experiencing a downturn, while the automotive market is recovering steadily, and production indicators in the steel industry are showing signs of stabilization [9]

Core Viewpoint - The decline in U.S. consumer confidence in June is attributed to widespread concerns about the economy, job market, and personal financial outlook due to trade policy implications [1] Group 1: Consumer Confidence Index - The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 93 in June, lower than all economists' expectations [1] - This decline highlights ongoing worries about the potential economic impact of increased import tariffs [1] Group 2: Consumer Spending Behavior - Despite moderate inflation over the past three months, some consumers are becoming more cautious in their spending [1] - Consumers' assessment of current business conditions has become more pessimistic compared to May [1] Group 3: Employment Outlook - The perception of current job opportunities has weakened for the sixth consecutive month, although it remains in positive territory, aligning with a still strong job market [1]

金十数据6月24日讯，随着第一季度国际商品贸易赤字大幅增加，美国经常账户赤字飙升至4502亿美 元，高于前一季度修正后的3120亿美元。虽然这是一个史无前例的巨大异常，也创下了新纪录，但考虑 到我们对贸易赤字已有的了解，这一数字与市场普遍预期（4433亿美元）相比，并没有高出太多。当 然，明显的罪魁祸首是贸易政策，其中包括本季度几次来回的关税，以及计划中的关税声明。预见性购 买和保护资源不受关税影响的努力推动了这些戏剧性的变化。如前所述，分解这一整体数据可以看出， 经常账户赤字的变动主要来自商品贸易。出口增长211亿美元，达到5390亿美元，而进口则激增1582亿 美元，达到1万亿美元。进口的大幅增长主要由"非货币性黄金"以及消费品（主要是药品、牙科和医药 产品）推动。黄金进口的增加（在某些情况下被记录为"成品金属制品"）模糊了普通商品与投资品之间 的界限。出口的增长则主要是民用飞机和电脑相关产品。 美国一季度经常账户赤字飙升至4502亿美元 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that trade policies are expected to exert downward pressure on inflation in the UK [1] Group 2 - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee member, Green, highlights the potential impact of trade policies on the UK economy [1]

智通财经6月24日电，欧盟的金属生产商正在游说欧盟"在未来几周"对废金属出口征收出口关税或实施 限制，以应对特朗普政府贸易政策引发的废金属大量涌入美国的局面。特朗普对进口钢铁和铝征收50% 的关税，这增加了对免关税废金属的需求，并大幅推高了价格。欧洲金属生产商警告称，废料将出现短 缺，碳排放战略将被颠覆。 关税引爆废金属"赴美狂潮" 生产商敦促欧盟限制出口 ...

美联储古尔斯比：如果贸易政策影响消失了，我们应该继续降息。 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - CMC reported net earnings of $83.1 million or $0.73 per diluted share on net sales of $2 billion, with adjusted earnings of $84.4 million or $0.74 per diluted share, reflecting a decline from the prior year period [7][29] - Consolidated core EBITDA was $204.1 million with a core EBITDA margin of 10.1%, down from 12.3% in the prior year period [30] - North American Steel Group adjusted EBITDA decreased 24% year-over-year to $186 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.9% compared to 14.7% in the previous year [30][31] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American Steel Group experienced lower margins over scrap, impacting profitability, while Emerging Business Group's net sales increased by 4.7% year-over-year to $197.5 million, with adjusted EBITDA up 7% [30][34] - Europe Steel Group reported adjusted EBITDA of $3.6 million, a significant improvement from a loss of $4.2 million in the prior year, driven by increased shipment volumes and cost management efforts [35][36] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Finished steel shipments in North America increased by 3.2% year-over-year, with daily rebar shipments growing approximately 1.3% [33] - The construction and industrial activity remained resilient, with strong demand signals in both non-residential and infrastructure markets, despite economic uncertainties [9][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - CMC is executing a strategy aimed at enhancing financial profiles and achieving higher, more stable margins and cash flows through operational excellence and strategic growth initiatives [6][22] - The company is focused on value-accretive organic growth, particularly through its micro mill projects, which are expected to contribute significantly to EBITDA [24][25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the long-term outlook, citing strong structural drivers for construction activity, including infrastructure investment and reshoring trends [11][12] - The company anticipates improved financial results in the fourth quarter, driven by seasonal trends and higher steel product margins [41][42] Other Important Information - CMC's cash and cash equivalents totaled $893 million, with total liquidity exceeding $1.7 billion, providing flexibility for strategic growth and shareholder returns [37][38] - The company expects to invest between $425 million and $475 million in capital expenditures for fiscal 2025, down from previous guidance due to project delays [39][40] Q&A Session Summary Question: Steel products volumes in North America - Management acknowledged that steel product volumes were up only 7% sequentially due to outages and challenges in production, but expects a strong fourth quarter with volumes following normal seasonal trends [45][46][48] Question: U.S. rebar pricing - Management noted that while they do not discuss prices directly, they are focused on creating value over volume and will continue to monitor pricing dynamics [51][52][54] Question: Update on Arizona two utilization rate - Management reported good progress with Arizona two, expecting to exit the year at around 70% to 75% utilization and anticipates profitability in the fourth quarter [58][61] Question: West Virginia project delays - Management clarified that delays were due to tax credit compliance and weather issues, not market conditions, and expressed optimism about future demand [64][70] Question: Inorganic growth opportunities - Management indicated a good pipeline for potential acquisitions, emphasizing discipline in evaluating opportunities and the importance of achieving synergies to enhance value [75][79]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report [2] - Report Date: June 23, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13,500, down 15; trading volume was 35,530 lots, an increase of 5,786 lots; open interest was 154,498 lots, an increase of 58 lots [3] - CF05 contract closed at 13,470, down 25; trading volume was 1,183 lots, an increase of 332 lots; open interest was 5,608 lots, an increase of 492 lots [3] - CF09 contract closed at 13,465, down 30; trading volume was 184,987 lots, an increase of 38,955 lots; open interest was 515,356 lots, a decrease of 9,626 lots [3] - CY01 contract closed at 19,770, unchanged; trading volume was 0 lots; open interest was 37 lots, unchanged [3] - CY05 contract closed at 18,550, unchanged; trading volume was 0 lots; open interest was 0 lots [3] - CY09 contract closed at 19,700, down 35; trading volume was 5,219 lots, a decrease of 931 lots; open interest was 21,159 lots, a decrease of 498 lots [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was 14,894 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; CY IndexC32S was 20,300 yuan/ton, down 770 yuan [3] - Cot A was 77.55 cents/pound, unchanged; FCY IndexC33S was 21,892 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [3] - (FC Index):M: arrival price was 75.82 cents/pound, unchanged; Indian S - 6 was 54,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Polyester staple fiber was 7,450 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; pure polyester yarn T32S was 11,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Viscose staple fiber was 12,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; viscose yarn R30S was 17,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Spread - Cotton inter - period spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 30, up 10; 5 - 9 spread was 5, up 5; 9 - 1 spread was - 35, down 15 [3] - Cotton yarn inter - period spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 1,220, unchanged; 5 - 9 spread was - 1,150, up 35; 9 - 1 spread was - 70, down 35 [3] - Cross - variety spreads: CY01 - CF01 was 6,270, up 15; CY05 - CF05 was 5,080, up 25; CY09 - CF09 was 6,235, down 5 [3] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,154, up 15; sliding - scale tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 444, up 15; domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 1,592, down 776 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of the week ending June 12, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly signing was 18,900 tons, a weekly increase of 38%, a 23% decrease from the four - week average, and a 56% year - on - year decrease; 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly signing was 62,300 tons, a 146% year - on - year increase [6] - 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly shipments were 46,400 tons, a 13% week - on - week decrease, a 24% decrease from the four - week average, and a 3% year - on - year increase [6] - According to CONAB's June 2024/25 production forecast, Brazil's cotton production is expected to be 3.913 million tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous month [6] - Cotton spot trading was mostly sluggish, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment, and the overall basis remained stable. Downstream acceptance of high basis was not high [7] Trading Logic - Uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations and China's trade policies with other countries bring uncertainties to cotton trends. Currently, China's commercial cotton inventory is at a low level. If the de - stocking rate remains the same, the market may trade on the tight supply of cotton before the new cotton is listed, and cotton prices may fluctuate slightly stronger [8] - Recent international changes are significant. Rising crude oil prices may drive up the prices of all commodities. Iran's Parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Commission member Kousari said that the Iranian Parliament has concluded that the Strait of Hormuz should be closed, but the final decision lies with the Iranian Supreme National Security Council [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] - Options: Wait and see [9] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The all - cotton fabric market remained sluggish. Weaving mills reported little change in recent orders, mainly small and scattered orders. Overall, production was cut, and the operating rate was low. The transaction price of grey cloth was negotiated according to order volume. Most weaving mills focused on optimizing cash flow [9] - The pure - cotton yarn market remained sluggish. Spinning mills' prices remained stable, and their willingness to reduce prices for sales decreased significantly. The phenomenon of production restrictions and shutdowns among inland spinning mills increased significantly, and the operating rate continued to decline [9] Group 4: Options Option Data - On June 23, 2025, the closing price of CF509C13400.CZC was 222.00, down 23.2%; the closing price of CF509P12600.CZC was 24.00, down 31.4%; the closing price of CF509P12200.CZC was 16.00, up 14.3% [11] - The 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.2915, with slightly lower volatility than the previous day. The implied volatility of CF509 - C - 13400 was 9%, CF509 - P - 12600 was 12.3%, and CF509 - P - 12200 was 15.4% [11] Option Strategies - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.9702, and the volume PCR of the main contract was 0.6577. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased today [12] - Option strategy: Wait and see [13] Group 5: Related Attachments - Figures include 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton price spread, cotton January basis, cotton May basis, cotton September basis, CY05 - CF05 spread, CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [14][21][26]

Group 1 - South Korea's exports showed resilience with a year-on-year increase of 8.3% in the first 20 days of June, a significant improvement from a 1.3% decline in May [1] - The trade surplus reached $2.62 billion, with imports growing by 5.3% during the same period [1] - The semiconductor industry saw a notable export growth of 21.8%, while automotive exports increased by 9.2% [1] Group 2 - The South Korean government announced a supplementary budget of 30.5 trillion won ($22.2 billion) to support the economy amid weak consumption and external trade pressures [2] - The supplementary budget includes 15.2 trillion won for economic stimulus, 5 trillion won for support to small and medium enterprises, and 10.3 trillion won to fill current budget revenue gaps [2] - The Bank of Korea has lowered the benchmark interest rate to 2.5% and reduced the annual growth forecast to 0.8%, indicating potential further easing if conditions worsen [2]