Core Insights - The article highlights a significant increase in global gold demand, particularly driven by investment, following the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3][6]. Group 1: Global Gold Demand Trends - In Q3 2025, global gold demand reached a record high of 1313 tons, with a total value of $146 billion, marking the highest quarterly demand ever [3]. - Investment demand for gold surged to 537 tons in Q3, a 47% year-on-year increase, accounting for 55% of total gold demand [3]. - Gold ETFs saw substantial inflows, with holdings increasing by 222 tons in Q3, translating to $26 billion in investment [3]. Group 2: China Market Performance - In contrast, China's gold demand showed a decline, with retail investment and consumption dropping to 152 tons in Q3, a 7% year-on-year decrease and a 38% quarter-on-quarter decline, marking the weakest Q3 since 2009 [6]. - Gold ETF demand in China turned negative, with outflows of 3.8 billion RMB (approximately $540 million) in Q3, ending a three-quarter inflow trend [6]. - Despite the challenges, the total assets under management (AUM) for gold ETFs in China grew by 11% to 168.8 billion RMB (about $23.7 billion) due to rising gold prices [6]. Group 3: Central Bank Purchases - Global central banks continued to purchase gold, with net purchases reaching 220 tons in Q3, a 28% increase from the previous quarter and a 10% increase year-on-year [7]. - Cumulatively, central banks bought 634 tons of gold in the first three quarters of 2025 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4.00%, marking the fifth rate cut since September 2024 [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The recent rate cut follows a previous reduction of 25 basis points on September 17 [1]. - This decision is part of a broader strategy to address risks in the labor market, particularly in light of signs of weakness in employment data released before the government shutdown [3]. Group 2: Economic Context - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of monitoring risks in the labor market, indicating ongoing concerns about economic stability [3]. - There remains internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding the future path of interest rate cuts, influenced by missing key economic data and persistent inflationary pressures [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report by Gina Bolvin of Bolvin Wealth Management emphasizes the need for clearer evidence that the Federal Reserve's policies are returning to the 2% inflation target before a significant decline in long-term bond yields can be expected [1] Group 1 - The biggest risk observed in the market is the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy direction [1] - If the job market remains resilient and fiscal or tariff policies support growth or exert inflationary pressure, the Federal Reserve may not need to implement the anticipated interest rate cuts, necessitating a repricing of bonds [1] - Currently, there is a lack of evidence indicating that the Federal Reserve's policies are on track to achieve the 2% inflation target [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Recent US Treasury yields have declined overall, with the "safe-haven + rate cut expectation" resonance strengthening. The core factors driving the rise of US Treasuries are the expectation of looser monetary policy, including Powell's public signal of rate cuts, mild CPI in September, and the decline in housing and oil prices weakening medium - and long - term inflation pressures. Additionally, the deterioration of regional bank loan quality and government shutdown concerns have enhanced the safe - haven property of US Treasuries [1][6]. - Fiscal and supply pressures have eased, and the ultra - long end is relatively favored. The allocation force is concentrating on the long end, and the long - end supply pressure is expected to weaken, further supporting long - end prices. In the short term, US Treasuries are supported by the rate cut path and falling inflation, but there may be fluctuations. In the medium term, US Treasuries still have allocation value and are likely to enter a pattern of low - level oscillation [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. US Treasury Interest Rates - As of October 24, the 10 - year US Treasury yield has dropped by 12bp in two weeks to 4.02%. The 2 - year yield has also dropped by 12bp, and the 30 - year yield by 13bp compared to two weeks ago [2]. 2. US Treasury Market - In terms of actual bond issuance in early October, the issuance duration of US Treasuries has slightly increased, with 57.84 billion for 3 - year, 38.92 billion for 10 - year, and 21.96 billion for 30 - year. The US fiscal deficit in December is 86.7 billion US dollars, and the 12 - month cumulative deficit has slightly declined to 2.03 trillion US dollars [2]. 3. Derivatives Market - The net short position in US Treasury futures has slightly declined. As of September 23, the net short positions of speculators, leveraged funds, asset management companies, and primary dealers have dropped to 5.738 million lots. Meanwhile, the federal funds rate futures market remains in a net short position, rising to 395,400 lots [2]. 4. Liquidity and US Economy - **Monetary Policy**: On September 18, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first rate cut in nine months this year. The Fed has shown increased concern about the labor market [3]. - **Fiscal Policy**: As of October 22, the US Treasury TGA deposit balance has increased by 111.02 billion US dollars in two weeks, and the Fed's reverse repurchase tool has shrunk by 1.415 billion US dollars in two weeks, with overall liquidity remaining relatively abundant [3]. - **Economic Situation**: As of October 18, the Fed's weekly economic indicator is 2.16 (2.44 two weeks ago), indicating that the economy has deteriorated after a short - term stabilization [3].

Core Insights - In September, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3% year-on-year, up from 2.9% in August [1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also rose by 3% year-on-year in September [1] - Gasoline prices were a significant contributor to inflation, rising by 4.1% in September [1] Economic Data Summary - The month-on-month CPI increased by 0.3% in September, lower than the 0.4% increase in August [1] - The month-on-month core CPI rose by 0.2%, down from 0.3% in August [1] - The release of the CPI data was delayed by over a week due to the ongoing federal government shutdown [1]

Core Insights - The Central Bank of Kyrgyzstan is implementing measures to curb inflation pressures while maintaining economic growth, which has been at a rapid rate of 8%-9% over the past three years [1] - The current monetary policy is moderately tight, contrasting with last year's target-based approach [1] - The annual inflation rate in September was reported at 8.5%, slightly above the Central Bank's target range of 5%-7% [1] Monetary Policy - The Central Bank is focused on preventing economic overheating and ensuring that growth benefits the nation [1] - The benchmark interest rate was raised from 9% to 9.25% during the summer [1] Inflation Context - A significant portion of the consumer basket consists of imported goods, which the Central Bank is working to control in terms of inflation expectations [1] - Despite an increase in inflation pressures this year, the inflation level in Kyrgyzstan remains relatively favorable compared to neighboring countries [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Turkey has lowered the benchmark interest rate from 40.5% to 39.5%, indicating a slowdown in the rate of interest cuts amid persistent inflationary pressures [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rate Changes - The recent interest rate cut is a significant slowdown compared to previous cuts of 300 and 250 basis points in July and September, respectively [1] - The decision reflects the Central Bank's attempt to balance economic stimulation and inflation control [1] Inflation Trends - Turkey's annual inflation rate unexpectedly rose to 33.29% in September, marking the first increase since May 2024 [1] - The likelihood of year-end inflation falling within the range of 25% to 29% has increased, surpassing earlier expectations [1] Economic Context - Since mid-last year, Turkey's inflation rate has generally been on a downward trend, attributed to the Central Bank's shift from a long-standing low-interest rate policy to a tighter monetary stance [1] - The Central Bank's current decision to slow down interest rate cuts suggests ongoing concerns about rising prices, particularly in the food sector [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that Japan's manufacturing sector is experiencing a significant contraction, with the October PMI at 48.3, marking the lowest level since March 2024 and indicating a decline for the fourth consecutive month [1] - The decline in new orders is a major factor contributing to the manufacturing contraction, with the speed of new order decline accelerating, reflecting ongoing weakness in domestic demand [1] - Despite the contraction in current activity, manufacturers have a more optimistic outlook for future production, with expectations rising to a three-month high, driven by hopes for global economic recovery and increased demand for electronic products [2] Group 2 - The services sector in Japan is also facing challenges, with the services PMI dropping from 53.3 in September to 52.4 in October, indicating a slowdown in expansion [2] - The composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and services, decreased from 51.3 to 50.9, reaching the lowest growth rate in five months and nearing stagnation [2] - Inflationary pressures are rising, with both input costs and output prices increasing more than in September, attributed to higher employment, raw material, and fuel costs, as well as a weak yen [2]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market currently shows indifference to the new round of tariff threats from the United States, which may indicate a desensitization to tariff measures or that the impacts have been fully priced in [1] Group 1: Tariff Impact - Tariffs are continuing to push up inflation expectations in the U.S., making it difficult for the market to further price in the Federal Reserve's rate cut potential [1] - Other countries' rate cut expectations have stabilized, contrasting with the U.S. situation [1] Group 2: Trade Data - Current trade data shows only a slight impact from tariffs, but this does not imply that tariffs have no effect; the impact may simply take longer to manifest [1]

Core Insights - Uzbekistan is projected to remain among the top five fastest-growing economies in Europe and Central Asia in 2025 and 2026, with growth rates of 6.2% and 6% respectively, an increase from previous forecasts of 5.9% [1][1][1] Economic Growth Projections - Kyrgyzstan is expected to lead the region with growth rates of 9.2% in 2025 and 6.5% in 2026 [1] - Tajikistan's growth is forecasted at 7.6% for 2025 and 5.2% for 2026 [1] - Georgia is projected to grow by 7% in 2025 and 5.5% in 2026 [1] - Kazakhstan's growth rates are expected to be 5.5% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026 [1] Regional Economic Context - The overall economic growth for Europe and Central Asia is projected to decline to 2.4% in 2025, down from 3.7% in 2024, primarily due to the slowdown in the Russian economy [1] - Average growth for the region is expected to rise to 2.6% in 2026-2027 [1] - Geopolitical uncertainties, tensions in international trade, and persistent inflation pressures are increasing the economic vulnerabilities in the region [1] Central Asia Economic Outlook - The economic growth for Central Asia is anticipated to reach 5.9% in 2025 and 5% in 2026, supported by increased oil production in Kazakhstan and rising foreign exchange reserves and investments in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan [1]