澳新 银行的Khoon Goh报告称，新加坡金融管理局料将于2026年成为该地区首个收紧政策的央行。他预 计此举最早将在7月进行。他表示："虽然2026年的增长前景不确定，但风险平衡略微偏向上行。"他还 预计，新加坡金管局的核心通胀已经见底，并将在2026年上升。Goh指出，新加坡金管局在其他时期也 曾率先在该地区收紧政策——例如2010年全球金融危机后或2021年疫情后复苏期间——这些举措被认为 是为了抢先应对通胀压力。他称："通过及早做出改变，新加坡金管局可以避免落后于形势，以及之后 被迫采取更多行动。" ...

Core Insights - General Mills' latest earnings reveal significant strain on U.S. consumers and the broader economy, with organic net sales down 1%, adjusted operating profit down 20%, and margin compression in North America [1][4]. Consumer Behavior - Lower-income and middle-class consumers are increasingly opting for generic store brands to manage grocery expenses, negatively impacting General Mills, which produces brands like Cheerios and Nature Valley [2][6]. - Despite a trend of eating at home, consumers are not necessarily choosing General Mills' products, indicating a shift in purchasing behavior [3]. Economic Context - The post-pandemic inflation allowed brands to raise prices, but consumers remain cautious due to a sluggish job market, leading to lower volumes and increased promotional needs for General Mills [4][6]. - The economic environment is characterized by a bifurcated consumer base, with high-income shoppers continuing to spend while lower-income shoppers are cutting back [6][7]. Market Performance - General Mills' stock performance reflects broader consumer trends, with a modest 2% increase indicating relief rather than renewed growth confidence [5]. - The operating profit in North America has fallen over 20% year-over-year, aligning with trends reported by major grocery partners like Kroger [6]. Macro Economic Factors - The U.S. economy is facing a volatile backdrop with high effective tariff rates and persistent inflation pressures, contributing to a lack of renewed economic momentum [7]. - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach following interest rate cuts adds to the uncertainty in the economic landscape [7].

基于上述判断，高盛预计本轮宽松周期将延续至2026年，联邦基金目标利率有望降至3%或更低。该预 测建立在两项核心前提之上：一是通胀压力继续温和回落；二是劳动力市场出现更多疲软迹象，为美联 储解除剩余紧缩政策提供充分空间。 （文章来源：新华财经） "市场应更聚焦于失业率走势，而非总体非农就业增长。"Schiffrin指出。这一转变反映出美联储对劳动 力市场"闲置度"上升的警惕——即便新增就业岗位维持正值，若失业率持续攀升，仍可能触发政策响 应。 新华财经北京12月17日电高盛最新研报指出，美联储在2026年前或采取比市场此前预期更为积极的降息 路径。该机构认为，尽管当前货币政策立场仍以"按兵不动、评估数据"为主，但决策层对劳动力市场可 持续性的担忧正在上升，可能降低进一步宽松的门槛。 高盛全球银行与市场部首席策略官兼金融风险主管Josh Schiffrin表示，美联储主席鲍威尔在最近一次新 闻发布会上释放出明确信号：就业市场的结构性变化正引起政策制定者的高度关注。Schiffrin强调，未 来数月的就业数据将成为判断是否重启降息的关键依据，其中失业率指标的重要性已超越非农就业总人 数。 ...

Group 1: US Employment Data - The US non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, surpassing market expectations of 50,000, indicating continued but weak job growth [1][6] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, up from 4.4% in September, marking the highest level since September 2021 [1][6] - October saw a significant decline in employment, with a drop of 105,000 jobs, exceeding the expected decrease of 25,000, primarily due to a sharp decline in government employment [1][6] Group 2: Eurozone Economic Activity - Eurozone's composite PMI fell to 51.9 in December from 52.8 in November, reaching a three-month low, indicating a slowdown in business activity [2][7] - Manufacturing in the Eurozone is generally weak, and service sector growth is also diminishing, with inflation pressures rising and input costs reaching a nine-month high [2][7] - The European Central Bank is expected to consider these data points in its upcoming interest rate decision, with current economic trajectories unlikely to alter monetary policy [2][7] Group 3: Currency Market Movements - The US Dollar Index experienced a slight decline, trading around 98.20, influenced by dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials and the recent non-farm payroll report [3][8] - The Euro initially rose against the dollar but fell back due to profit-taking and weak economic data from the Eurozone, trading around 1.1750 [4][9] - The British Pound strengthened, breaking the 1.3400 mark and reaching a nine-week high, supported by weak dollar performance and positive economic data from the UK [5][10]

在政策与人事不确定性尚未消化前，单边押注性价比有限，更适合通过期限结构或跨资产对冲应对波 动。 年内降息完成后，市场仍缺乏清晰的"下一步指引"。围绕主席人选博弈、官员内部分歧及收益率曲线波 动，共同形成新的不确定性来源。在这种环境下，政策路径更像是一系列需动态校准的概率判断。对交 易者而言，关注结构性信号变化，比单纯押注结果更为关键。 UNFX12月17日讯 年内第三次降息落地后，美联储未来政策路径的不确定性并未减弱，反而因人事变 动及内部立场分歧进一步升温。周二晚间，《华尔街日报》披露，美国总统特朗普计划于周三面试现任 美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，将其列为潜在下一任主席候选人之一。消息公布后，市场对政策预期面 临再次定价压力。此次人事遴选叠加近期宏观数据扰动和收益率曲线波动，使交易者需要同时消化"政 策已落地"与"政策主导权可能更迭"两条并行主线。 报道显示，沃勒与国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特、前美联储理事凯文·沃什同列面试名单。沃勒在学 界口碑稳健，10月调查显示经济学家普遍认为他是合适的主席人选，其关于降息的论证逻辑自洽，并具 备协调内部分歧的能力。然而，政治现实对其不完全有利：沃勒与特朗普缺乏深厚私 ...

Core Insights - The UK labor market is showing signs of further weakening due to sluggish economic growth, with the unemployment rate rising to 5.1% for the period of August to October 2025, which is higher than the same period last year and the previous three months [1] - Employment rate during the same period stands at 74.9%, remaining stable compared to last year but lower than the previous three months [1] - Employee income growth is also slowing, with salaries excluding bonuses increasing by 4.6% year-on-year, and including bonuses by 4.7%. The private sector wage growth has decreased from 4.2% to 3.9%, while the public sector wage growth has increased from 6.6% to 7.6% [1] - The data indicates a further slowdown in the UK labor market, leading to market expectations that the Bank of England will lower the benchmark interest rate on the 18th [1]

从结构上看，经济走弱的迹象具有一定广泛性。Williamson表示，庞大的服务业新业务流入几乎陷入停 滞，而制造业则出现了一年来首次工厂订单下降。虽然部分制造企业仍在报告产出增加，但在销售放缓 的背景下，这样的生产节奏被认为难以持续，若需求未能在新一年回暖，企业或被迫削减产量。与此同 时，服务业企业反映，12月销售增长为2023年以来最疲弱的月份之一。 通胀压力同样引发关注。调查显示，企业成本上涨速度升至2022年11月以来最高水平，推动销售价格出 现近三年来最显著的涨幅之一。Williamson指出，关税再次被企业普遍视为价格上涨的重要原因，其最 初对制造业的影响正逐步向服务业蔓延，从而加剧整体的"可负担性"问题。 在金融市场层面，疲软的PMI数据公布后，美元指数承压回落，日内一度下跌约0.3%，报97.96。避险 情绪升温推动金价走强，现货黄金升至每盎司4330美元上方，刷新当日高点，显示投资者对美国经济前 景与通胀走势的关注正在升温。 智通财经APP获悉，美国最新公布的标普全球PMI初值显示，12月美国私营部门经济活动仍处于扩张区 间，但扩张动能明显放缓，多项指标降至数月低点，释放出经济增长趋弱的信号。 ...

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 14640, with a recent opening at 14974 and a current price of 14720, reflecting a decrease of 0.37% [1] - The highest price reached was 15192, while the lowest was 14237, indicating a short-term bullish trend in silver futures [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has adjusted the margin ratios and price fluctuation limits for silver futures contracts, increasing the fluctuation limit to 15% and the margin for holding positions to 16% [2] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan's Tankan survey indicates ongoing inflationary pressures, leading to expectations of an interest rate hike from 0.5% to 0.75%, a level not seen in 30 years [2] - The anticipated rate hike may trigger a wave of unwinding in "yen carry trades," potentially exerting significant pressure on global risk assets, particularly dollar-denominated assets [2] - The silver market is characterized by lower liquidity, making it more susceptible to large capital movements, which could increase future volatility [2]

Attention is increasingly shifting from current policy to what the Fed may look like by mid-2026. Kevin Hassett remains the leading candidate to succeed Chair Jerome Powell and has consistently argued that policy rates below 3% are reasonable over the long term. Should he be appointed—and if other board changes tilt dovish—Fed leadership could move decisively toward a growth-first stance. At the same time, disinflationary pressures are becoming clearer. Energy prices are easing, rent inflation is slowing, a ...

Group 1 - The silver price has surpassed $63 per ounce, attracting significant attention in the precious metals market, with potential for further increases [1] - The recent trend indicates a shift in capital back into the silver market, with $48 per ounce seen as a re-entry point for many investors, laying the groundwork for future price increases [1] - The core driver of rising prices is the expanding real demand, particularly due to the acceleration of global electrification and increased metal material needs in AI infrastructure [3] Group 2 - The silver market is characterized by a long-term tight supply and increasing demand, which is a key reason for the strong price performance [3] - Despite silver prices reaching $63, it remains undervalued compared to gold, with historical gold-silver ratios typically between 50 and 60, and some forecasts suggesting a potential drop to around 40 [3] - Retail investment demand remains resilient, providing additional support to the market, while recent policy rate cuts have contributed to a more accommodative monetary environment [3] Group 3 - Multiple factors, including potential declines in real yields and resistance in the dollar, contribute to a long-term bullish outlook for silver prices [4] - The silver market is currently in a phase of value reappraisal, indicating that the upward trend in silver prices may not be over and warrants ongoing attention [4]