一、非农摘要 2025年6月美国非农就业数据表面超预期但结构疲软，新增就业14.7万人（预期11万，前值修正后14.4万），失业率降至4.1%（预期4.3%），薪资同比增长 3.7%（预期3.8%）。尽管headline数据强劲，但私人部门仅新增7.4万人，为2024年10月以来最低水平，且政府部门贡献近半数新增就业（7.3万人），主要 集中在州和地方教育领域。 | | | 近期数据 前次数据 最高 | | 最低 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 失业率 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 14.9 | 2.5 | ം | | 非农就业数据 | 147 | 144 | 4631 | -20471 千 | | 非农就业修正：4月和5月非农数据合计上修1.6万人，显示劳动力市场韧性被低估。 薪资增长放缓：6月薪资同比增速创2024年7月以来新低，反映通胀压力边际缓解。 四、相关机构或银行的观点 失业率下降存在统计"水分"：若计入新增的25.6万"沮丧工人"（Discouraged Workers），失业率将升至4.261%，更符合就业市场逐步走弱的趋势。薪资增速 放缓 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Report's Core View - The prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. For crude oil, due to macro - uncertainties and the fading of geopolitical premiums, it will continue to fluctuate pending the OPEC meeting's production increase decision. High - sulfur fuel oil may have a short - term rebound, but it is recommended to short the high - sulfur cracking spread on rallies. For asphalt, it is recommended to short the cracking spread on rallies. Polyester products like TA and EG are also expected to fluctuate. Rubber is expected to fluctuate weakly, and methanol and other products will maintain a fluctuating trend [1][3][4][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI 8 - month contract closed down 0.45 dollars to 67 dollars/barrel, with a decline of 0.67%. Brent 9 - month contract closed down 0.31 dollars to 68.8 dollars/barrel, with a decline of 0.45%. SC2508 closed up 3.3 yuan/barrel to 507 yuan/barrel, with an increase of 0.66%. The US June non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. The Fed Chairman Powell said that a July rate cut is "still under consideration". With macro - uncertainties and the fading of geopolitical premiums, the oil price will continue to fluctuate pending the OPEC meeting's production increase decision [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 1.05% to 2987 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2509 closed up 0.89% to 3623 yuan/ton. As of July 2, the fuel oil inventory in Fujairah decreased by 139.1 million barrels (13.46%) week - on - week. The high - sulfur fundamentals are slightly stronger than the low - sulfur ones. High - sulfur prices may have a short - term rebound, but it is recommended to short the high - sulfur cracking spread on rallies. The domestic low - sulfur supply remains sufficient, and the internal - external price difference is expected to remain low [3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed up 0.25% to 3588 yuan/ton. This week, the shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises decreased by 14.3% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate of 69 modified asphalt enterprises decreased by 0.8% week - on - week. The pricing center may shift back to the north after the peak season in the north. It is recommended to short the cracking spread on rallies [3] - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 1% at 4746 yuan/ton, EG2509 closed down 0.26% at 4288 yuan/ton, and PX 509 closed down 0.74% at 6740 yuan/ton. The downstream demand is weak, and the production and sales of polyester yarn are weak. TA and EG prices are expected to fluctuate [4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contract RU2509 closed down 110 yuan/ton to 14015 yuan/ton. The tire production load decreased, the rubber inventory increased slightly, and the rubber price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - **Methanol**: With the recovery of Iranian plants, the subsequent imports will increase. The MTO profit is being compressed, and the short - term methanol price will maintain a fluctuating trend [5] - **Polyolefins**: The supply is at a high level but the increase is limited, the total inventory is slowly decreasing, and the price center moves with the cost [7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: As the downstream enters the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, but the arbitrage and hedging space is narrowing. The PVC price is expected to continue to fluctuate [7] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes for various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on July 3 and July 2, 2025 [9] 3. Market News - Iran's Foreign Minister said that Iran will continue to engage with the UN nuclear watchdog. The US June non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, and the Fed Chairman Powell said that a July rate cut is "still under consideration" [11] 4. Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13][14][15] 4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts for various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. over a certain period [33][34][35] 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts between different contracts for products like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [45][46][50] 4.4 Inter - product Spreads - It includes the spread and ratio charts between different products such as crude oil internal - external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][63][65] 4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the cash - flow and profit charts for products like ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [70] 5. Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [77][78][79]

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for June showed an addition of 147,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 110,000, while the unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% to 4.1%. However, the private sector job growth was only 74,000, marking the smallest increase since October 2024 [3][5] - The rise in the U.S. dollar and bond yields has diminished market expectations for an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, thereby reducing the attractiveness of gold [4] - The Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate remains at 4.25%-4.5%. The strong non-farm data and potential inflationary pressures from the Trump administration's new policies increase the likelihood of the Fed maintaining a cautious stance [5][6] - The Trump administration's large tax cuts and spending bill, projected to add $3.4 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, may exacerbate inflationary pressures, although the current strong dollar and rising bond yields are temporarily overshadowing this [6] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that the gold market experienced a bullish trend at the beginning of the week, followed by a bearish reversal on Thursday, resulting in a doji candle that suggests indecision in the market [8] - Key support levels to watch include 3319, which aligns with the 60-day moving average, and 3311, the previous low. Resistance levels are identified at 3345 and 3350, corresponding to the 30-day and 20-day moving averages [9] - On the four-hour chart, after a drop to 3247, a strong upward movement was observed, but the price faced resistance at 3365/3366, entering an adjustment phase. Key support levels are at 3307/3306 and 3293/3292, while resistance levels are at 3345, 3354, and 3365/3366 [11]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. indices rose, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching new highs [1] - The Dow Jones increased by 344.11 points (0.77%) to 44828.53 points, the Nasdaq rose by 207.97 points (1.02%) to 20601.10 points, and the S&P 500 gained 51.93 points (0.83%) to 6279.35 points [1] Economic Indicators - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, surpassing the expected 106,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3% [6] - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, indicating reduced inflationary pressure [6] - The ISM services index rose to 50.8 in June, indicating a return to expansion after a contraction in May [7] Tax Legislation Impact - The U.S. House of Representatives passed President Trump's large-scale tax and spending bill, which is expected to be signed into law [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the tax bill could complicate efforts to reduce fiscal deficits and debt burdens in the coming years, potentially increasing the deficit by $3.3 trillion [8][9] Trade Deficit - The U.S. trade deficit widened in May to $71.5 billion, a 19% increase from April, driven by a larger decline in exports compared to imports [10] Company News - Lucid Motors reported a record delivery of 3,309 vehicles in Q2, a 38% year-over-year increase, with total deliveries for the first half of the year reaching 6,418, up nearly 50% from the previous year [11] - The growth in Lucid's deliveries is attributed to the rapid expansion of the global electric vehicle market and successful brand positioning [11]

Group 1 - The UK services sector experienced its fastest expansion in nearly a year in June, with the final value of the Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising from 50.9 in May to 52.8, indicating the quickest growth since August 2024 [1] - The rate of price increases in the services sector fell to its lowest level in nearly four years, suggesting that price pressures monitored by the Bank of England are easing [1] - Despite a significant increase in new business, concerns about political and economic uncertainty have led to a slight decrease in business expectations for the coming year [1][2] Group 2 - The composite PMI rose from 50.3 in May to 52.0, indicating a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector after a prolonged downturn [1] - A survey indicated that the annual wage growth rate for UK businesses reached 4.6% in Q1 2025, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous quarter [2] - 29% of UK businesses expect a decline in sales due to changes in US trade policy, highlighting the impact of global economic conditions on local enterprises [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials indicate that if the labor market shows signs of weakness, the timing for restarting interest rate cuts may come sooner, influenced by pressure from Trump [1][2] - Trump's immigration policies are complicating the Fed's ability to assess the true state of the labor market, making it difficult to determine whether employment slowdowns are due to decreased labor demand or reduced labor supply [2][3] - Analysts expect a significant slowdown in immigration this year, which could lead employers to raise wages to fill positions, potentially causing shortages in certain goods or services [2][3] Group 2 - The balance of labor supply and demand has changed, with economists noting that the monthly job growth needs to be compared against a new equilibrium level that reflects labor market conditions [3][4] - The expected job growth figures, even if around 110,000, may not provide a clear consensus on whether they exceed or fall below the supply-demand balance [4][5] - Economists are shifting focus from monthly job growth to unemployment rates as a more direct measure of labor market health, although this approach has its limitations [5][6] Group 3 - The Fed's recent decision to maintain interest rates reflects a cautious approach, with officials acknowledging the need for more data before making any changes [6][7] - Concerns are raised that if the slowdown in job growth is due to reduced labor supply rather than weak demand, cutting rates could lead to higher inflation [6][7] - The potential for inflation to accelerate due to Trump's trade and immigration policies adds to the complexity of the Fed's decision-making process [6][7]

新华财经北京7月3日电（崔凯）欧元区6月综合PMI终值从5月的50.2上修至50.6，创三个月新高，标志 着私营部门活动连续第二个月扩张。制造业与服务业同步回暖是主要驱动力，但新增业务持续13个月收 缩、就业增长乏力等问题仍存隐忧。 意大利6月服务业PMI从53.2降至52.1，创三个月最低，但仍为连续第七个月扩张。新出口订单以五个月 最快速度下滑，反映欧洲需求疲软及全球贸易紧张；投入成本受薪资、能源及原材料价格上涨推动，但 企业暂未大幅转嫁压力，销售价涨幅放缓；就业连续第五个月增长，增速创一年新高，积压工作量进一 步减少。企业基于新客户开发和市场稳定预期，对未来12个月保持乐观。 尽管新增业务仍延续13个月的收缩态势，但积压工作量的持续消化为产出增长提供了支持。此外，企业 信心指数也有所回升，达到自2024年7月以来的最高点，显示出对未来经济前景的乐观态度。 德国：制造业回暖抵消服务业疲软，通胀压力缓解重返扩张 爱尔兰以连续第四个月扩张领跑，西班牙、意大利、德国紧随其后，但法国成为唯一连续十个月收缩的 主要经济体。 德国6月综合PMI终值50.4，较5月显著回升，制造业扩张部分抵消服务业收缩。新订单结束连续 ...

金十数据7月3日讯，周四公布的PMI调查显示，6月份英国服务业活动以近一年来最快的速度扩张，而 服务业价格的上涨速度是近四年来最慢的。这一结果可能会受到英国央行的欢迎。英国6月服务业PMI 终值从5月份的50.9升至6月的52.8。服务企业的价格涨幅为2021年2月以来的最低水平。英国央行正在密 切关注服务业价格，以衡量经济中的通胀压力。投资者普遍预计，继6月份暂停降息后，英国央行将在8 月份再次降息。 PMI数据显示，英国服务业正以去年8月以来最快速度增长 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has signaled a clear shift in its monetary policy, raising the policy interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5% on January 24, 2025, marking the first increase since July 2024 and the largest hike since February 2007 [1] - The BOJ has adjusted its core consumer price index forecasts, increasing the 2024 fiscal year expectation from 2.5% to 2.7% and the 2025 fiscal year from 1.9% to 2.4% [1] Group 2: Inflation Trends - Tokyo's consumer price index, excluding fresh food, rose by 3.1% year-on-year in June, lower than the predicted 3.3%, but still above the BOJ's 2% target [2] - The overall inflation rate decreased from 3.4% in May to 3.1% in June, marking the first slowdown in four months, primarily due to changes in energy prices [2] - Electricity prices increased by 5.3% year-on-year, down from a previous 10.8% rise, while gasoline prices fell by 1%, contrasting with a 6.3% increase the prior month [2] Group 3: Internal Policy Disagreements - There are notable divisions within the BOJ regarding monetary policy, with some members advocating for maintaining ultra-low rates to assess the impact of U.S. tariffs, while others focus on rising domestic inflation pressures [3] - BOJ member Takeda suggests that the bank is at a stage where it could pause rate hikes but should eventually resume the tightening cycle to maintain momentum towards price targets [3] - BOJ Governor Ueda emphasizes the necessity of pausing rate hikes due to the high uncertainty from U.S. tariff policies, indicating that potential inflation remains below target levels [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-1 贵⾦属延续震荡，关注就业数据及关税 进展 本周重点关注劳动⼒市场数据，以及关税第⼀个缓和期结束后的进展， 特朗普政府⽬前仍以施压态度为主，若⼆者发⽣边际恶化，短期将给⻩⾦ 带来上⾏驱动，若⼆者表现平缓，市场⻛险偏好或难有显著下⾏，⻩⾦短 期或仍需时间调整蓄⼒。⾦银⽐值震荡于90附近的平台，短期市场⻛险偏 好的回升对⽩银价格形成⽀撑，但⾦价的回落对银价同步形成拖累，属性 不共振下⽩银难有超额表现，短期预计仍将延续震荡整理⾛势。 1）美国总统特朗普对日美汽车贸易逆差表示不满，暗示可能对日本 汽车加征25%关税，7月9日谈判截止期临近。日本谈判代表延长在美 停留时间寻求突破，但美方内部立场未统一。日本持有超万亿美债或 成谈判筹码。加拿大为推进美加贸易谈判，取消数字服务税，此前双 方因该税激烈博弈。加美贸易占加拿大GDP20%，加方让步显示其对美 依赖。 2）美国财政部长贝森特表示，各国应当意识到，关税问题可能会回 退到4月2日的水平。在7月9日截止日期前的最后一周，预计将迎来一 波贸易协议的密集签署。他指出，目前尚未观察 ...