1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc rebounded from a low level, with a weekly increase of 2.04% and an amplitude of 2.59%. It is expected that zinc prices will stabilize and adjust. Macroscopically, there are differences in the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts. Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, the growth of zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, the profit space of smelters is large, and the production enthusiasm has increased. The output of refined zinc has reached a high level. However, the overseas zinc ore is tight, resulting in an expansion of import losses and a decrease in the inflow of imported zinc. The demand side is affected by the real - estate sector, but there are some bright spots in the automobile and home - appliance sectors. Technically, the short - selling atmosphere has weakened. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc rebounded from a low level, with a weekly increase of 2.04% and an amplitude of 2.59%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 22,270 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroscopically, there are differences in the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts. Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, the growth of zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, the profit space of smelters is large, and the production enthusiasm has increased. The output of refined zinc has reached a high level. However, the overseas zinc ore is tight, resulting in an expansion of import losses and a decrease in the inflow of imported zinc, and the export window is expected to open. The traditional peak season effect is dull, and the real - estate sector is a drag, while the automobile and home - appliance sectors have some bright spots. The domestic social inventory has increased, and the LME inventory has continued to decline. Technically, the short - selling atmosphere has weakened, and attention should be paid to the competition around MA60 [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: This week, the price of Shanghai Zinc futures rose, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased. As of October 10, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc was 22,270 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan/ton or 1.02% from September 25, 2025. As of October 9, 2025, the closing price of London Zinc was 3,014 US dollars/ton, up 2.5 US dollars/ton or 0.08% from October 3, 2025 [8]. - **Net Position and Total Position**: As of October 10, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc was 65 lots, an increase of 8,155 lots from September 25, 2025. The total position of Shanghai Zinc was 215,372 lots, a decrease of 23,090 lots or 9.68% from September 25, 2025 [12]. - **Price Spreads**: As of October 10, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from September 25, 2025. The lead - zinc futures price spread was 5,130 yuan/ton, an increase of 175 yuan/ton from September 25, 2025 [16]. - **Premium and Discount**: As of October 10, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,340 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan/ton or 1.73% from September 25, 2025. The spot discount was 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week. As of October 9, 2025, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was 66.8 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8.62 US dollars/ton from October 2, 2025 [22]. - **Inventory**: As of October 10, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 37,950 tons, a decrease of 1,850 tons or 4.65% from October 3, 2025. The Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventory was 106,950 tons, an increase of 8,940 tons or 9.12% from last week. As of October 9, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 136,100 tons, an increase of 800 tons or 0.59% from September 25, 2025 [25]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream**: In July 2025, the global zinc ore output was 1.0762 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.73% and a year - on - year increase of 10.28%. In August 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 467,301.43 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.51% and a year - on - year increase of 30.83% [31][32]. - **Supply - side - Global**: According to ILZSG data, in July 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1993 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 75,300 tons or 6.7%. The global refined zinc consumption was 1.1691 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10,100 tons or 0.87%. The global refined zinc surplus was 30,200 tons, compared with a deficit of 35,000 tons in the same period last year. According to WBMS, in June 2024, the global zinc market supply - demand balance was - 27,800 tons [37][38]. - **Supply - side - Domestic**: In August 2025, the zinc output was 651,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.8%. From January to August, the cumulative zinc output was 4.836 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. In August 2025, the refined zinc import volume was 25,656.83 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.59%, and the export volume was 310.91 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 84.57% [41][44]. - **Downstream - Galvanized Sheets**: From January to August 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of domestic major enterprises was 853,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.36%. In August 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 42,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.27%, and the export volume was 335,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.19% [47]. - **Downstream - Real Estate**: From January to August 2025, the new housing construction area was 398.0101 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.54%. The housing completion area was 276.9354 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.94%. The funds in place for real - estate development enterprises were 6.431803 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, personal mortgage loans were 885.679 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.5% [52][53]. - **Downstream - Infrastructure**: In August 2025, the real - estate development climate index was 93.05, a decrease of 0.28 from last month and an increase of 0.81 from the same period last year. From January to August 2025, the infrastructure investment increased by 5.42% year - on - year [58]. - **Downstream - Home Appliances**: In August 2025, the refrigerator output was 9.4532 million units, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. From January to August, the cumulative refrigerator output was 70.1891 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. The air - conditioner output was 16.8188 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.3%. From January to August, the cumulative air - conditioner output was 199.6462 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.8% [61]. - **Downstream - Automobiles**: In August 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 2,856,590 units, a year - on - year increase of 16.44%. The production volume was 2,815,413 units, a year - on - year increase of 12.96% [65].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in silver prices, reaching a historical high of $48.86 per ounce, is driven by rising gold prices and a strong rebound in the US dollar index, which has negatively impacted gold's attractiveness to overseas buyers [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The US dollar index rose by 0.5% on Thursday, marking its fourth consecutive day of gains, reaching a near two-month high of 99.55 before closing at 99.37 [1]. - The Federal Reserve's hawkish comments have supported the dollar, while the market's expectations for rate cuts have cooled, with traders anticipating a 95% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October and 80% in December [3]. - The US Treasury market's volatility has added pressure to the gold market, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising by 1.7 basis points to 4.148% and the 30-year yield increasing by 0.8 basis points to 4.732% [3]. Group 2: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term corrections, the long-term bullish outlook for gold remains intact, driven by reserve diversification and increasing global sovereign debt [4]. - Factors such as strong central bank buying, increased ETF inflows, and economic uncertainties related to tariffs continue to support gold prices, which have risen by 52% this year [4]. - Silver's supply tightness and potential industrial demand growth in a recovering global economy may further amplify its price increases [4]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - Current silver market conditions indicate a price consolidation phase, with support around $48.05 and potential trading strategies involving light positions near support and resistance levels [8]. - Suggested trading strategy includes entering long positions around $48.39 with a stop loss at $47.90 and a take profit target between $49.00 and $49.60 [8].

Group 1 - Precious metals prices continued to rise, with COMEX gold futures down 1.95% at $3991.10 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 2.73% at $47.66 per ounce; Shanghai gold rose 4.5% to ¥913.76 per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 2.3% to ¥11169 per kilogram [1] Group 2 - The U.S. government faces difficulties in resolving the shutdown, with the Senate rejecting funding bills seven times; Trump threatens to cut Democratic projects, while Republican leaders deny plans for drastic measures [2] - The U.S. Labor Department has recalled some employees to prepare for the critical September CPI inflation report [2] Group 3 - Federal Reserve Governor Barr emphasized inflation risks and stated that interest rate cuts should be approached with caution [3] Group 4 - Federal Reserve's third-in-command Williams expressed support for further interest rate cuts this year, stating that the economy is not on the brink of recession; the dollar index rose 0.6% to near a two-month high, making dollar-denominated gold relatively expensive for overseas buyers [4] - Data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) indicated that this week, daily bullish dollar structured trades exceeded bearish positions, showing a rapid shift in market confidence towards supporting the dollar [4] Group 5 - A ceasefire agreement was signed between Israel and Hamas, marking the first phase of U.S. President Trump's initiative to end the Gaza conflict; Hamas announced the agreement to end the war, ensure Israeli withdrawal, and facilitate the exchange of hostages and prisoners [4]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a historic surge, surpassing $4000 per ounce, but subsequently faced a sharp decline due to profit-taking and easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][3][9] Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold reached a peak of $4059.05 per ounce before dropping nearly 2% to around $3976, influenced by a stronger US dollar and a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas [1][3] - The recent drop in gold prices reflects a rational profit-taking response from investors after a significant price increase earlier in the week [3][9] - The geopolitical uncertainty that previously supported gold prices diminished with the ceasefire, prompting speculators to withdraw from the market [3][9] Group 2: Silver Market Impact - Silver prices also fell from a historical high of $51.22 to $49.23 per ounce, affected by the same geopolitical factors impacting gold [4][5] - Silver has seen a cumulative increase of 69% this year, driven by macroeconomic forces and supply constraints, but is more sensitive to economic cycles due to its industrial demand [4][5] Group 3: US Dollar Influence - The US dollar index rose for four consecutive trading days, reaching a near two-month high, which increased the cost of gold for overseas buyers and reduced its attractiveness [5][6] - Political instability in the Eurozone, particularly in France, has further bolstered the dollar's strength, leading to a decline in the euro [5][6] Group 4: Bond and Stock Market Interactions - US Treasury yields increased slightly, reflecting cautious investor sentiment regarding inflation risks, which indirectly weakened gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [7][8] - The US stock market's recent pullback, particularly in the context of the upcoming earnings season and government shutdown, has contributed to a risk-off sentiment among investors [8][9] Group 5: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Despite the short-term pullback, the long-term bullish outlook for gold remains intact, driven by factors such as reserve diversification and rising global sovereign debt [9][10] - The potential for geopolitical risks to resurface and the cautious approach of the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts may continue to support gold prices in the future [9][10]

Core Insights - The U.S. government is facing a stalemate regarding the budget, with a Republican proposal to end the government shutdown failing to pass in the Senate [1] - President Trump plans to cut certain federal programs favored by Democrats due to the ongoing deadlock in Congress [1] - The U.S. Treasury has entered into a $20 billion currency swap agreement with Argentina, purchasing Argentine pesos directly [1] Economic Policy and Market Dynamics - New York Fed President Williams supports further interest rate cuts within the year to address potential labor market slowdowns, while maintaining that the U.S. economy is not in recession [2] - Fed Governor Barr emphasizes caution regarding further rate cuts, highlighting inflation risks despite acknowledging vulnerabilities in the labor market [2] - The European Central Bank's September meeting minutes indicate that current inflation levels align with medium-term targets, suggesting no need for rate adjustments to influence market supply and demand [2] Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.52% to 46,358.42 points, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.28% to 6,735.11 points, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.08% to 23,024.63 points [3] - COMEX gold futures declined by 1.95% to $3,991.10 per ounce, while silver futures fell by 2.73% to $47.66 per ounce [4] - U.S. oil futures decreased by 1.65% to $61.52 per barrel, and Brent crude futures dropped by 1.54% to $65.23 per barrel [5] Bond and Currency Markets - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 0.83 basis points to 3.588%, with similar increases across other maturities [5] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.55% to 99.40, while the euro, pound, and Australian dollar all depreciated against the dollar [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 4% to 4.25% reflects a consensus among officials that the importance of slowing job growth outweighs concerns about persistent high inflation, marking the first rate cut of the year [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The voting result of the September meeting was 11 to 1, with the only dissenting vote from newly appointed Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran, who advocated for a 0.5 percentage point cut [2]. - Most officials expressed a willingness to consider further rate cuts in the remaining months of the year, while also acknowledging the risks of inflation [4][6]. - The dot plot from the September meeting indicates that officials expect two more rate cuts of 0.25 percentage points each by the end of the year, although there are differing opinions among the 19 participants regarding future cuts [6][7]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and Risks - Investors generally anticipate another 0.25 percentage point rate cut at the upcoming meeting on October 28-29, with futures contracts reflecting expectations for continued cuts in October and December [8]. - Despite recognizing risks in the labor market, many officials believe that employment will not deteriorate rapidly, with recent indicators not showing significant declines [8]. - Concerns about inflation persist, as it has remained above the Fed's target for four consecutive years, with fears that businesses and consumers may adapt to higher price growth, potentially stabilizing inflation around 3% [9]. Group 3: Policy Considerations - Officials reiterated the importance of balancing employment and inflation risks in future decisions, with some expressing caution about further rate cuts given the current borrowing conditions [11][12]. - The ongoing government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, limiting the information available to Fed officials for making informed decisions [13][14]. - The absence of official monthly economic data coincides with a particularly uncertain period, as the Fed navigates the impacts of significant policy changes, including tariffs and stricter immigration policies [15][16].

根据联邦公开市场委员会9月16日—17日会议纪要，"多数人判断，在今年剩余时间进一步放松政策可能 是合适的"。会议记录还显示，"多数与会者强调通胀前景面临上行风险"。 与会官员以11比1的投票结果决定将利率下调25个基点至4%—4.25%的区间，这是今年的首次降息。新 上任的斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）主张一次性降息50个基点，因而对该决定投了反对票。 会议后发布的新预测显示，按中位数估计，官员预计到今年年底还将再降两次各25个基点。不过，预测 也体现出委员会内部的分歧：在19名与会者中，有6人预计2025年只会降息一次或不再降息。 美联储又传重磅消息。 重点内容如下。 10月9日凌晨，美联储公布9月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议纪要。美联储官员们在9月政策会议 上表现出今年进一步降息的意愿，但同时也因通胀风险而保持谨慎。 美联储官员在上月的政策会议上表示，今年内有意进一步降息，但出于对通胀的担忧，许多人仍保持谨 慎态度。 自9月会议以来，包括美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊和米歇尔·鲍曼在内的美联储理事都提到，劳动力市场 的强劲是需要降息的理由。米兰则认为，中性利率低于普遍认知，这意味着美联储需 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increasing internal divisions regarding the outlook for interest rate cuts, with more than half of the officials expecting at least two more cuts this year, while others foresee only one or no cuts through 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The FOMC meeting minutes indicate that the majority of officials agree that the recent slowdown in job growth is more significant than persistent high inflation, leading to a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the first cut of the year [2]. - The voting result of the September meeting was 11 to 1, with the dissenting vote from Stephen Miran, who advocated for a 50 basis point cut [2]. - Investors widely anticipate another 25 basis point cut at the upcoming meeting on October 28-29, with a 94.6% probability of this outcome according to CME FedWatch [5]. Group 2: Employment and Inflation Concerns - The minutes highlight concerns among officials regarding the rising risks in the U.S. labor market, with some fearing that maintaining current interest rates for too long could lead to unnecessary weakness in employment, particularly in the housing sector [6]. - Officials are worried about inflation remaining above the Fed's target for four consecutive years, with concerns that businesses and consumers may become accustomed to higher price growth, potentially keeping inflation around 3% [7]. - The balance between promoting employment and controlling inflation is emphasized as crucial in future policy decisions, with officials acknowledging the dual risks of high rates leading to job weakness and excessive cuts causing inflation to rebound [7][8]. Group 3: Data Limitations and Decision-Making Challenges - The ongoing government shutdown has resulted in a lack of economic data, complicating the Fed's ability to make informed decisions at the upcoming meeting [8]. - The absence of official data on inflation, unemployment, and consumer spending means that Fed officials may have to rely on private sector data and feedback from businesses regarding pricing and hiring [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve officials expressed a willingness to further cut interest rates this year, but remain cautious due to inflation risks [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rate Decisions - The FOMC voted 11 to 1 to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year [3]. - New forecasts indicate that officials expect two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of the year, although there are internal disagreements among the 19 participants [3]. Inflation and Employment Concerns - Many officials emphasized that the inflation outlook poses upward risks, with a minority expressing reservations about the recent rate cut [3]. - Despite concerns about the labor market, most participants believe that employment is unlikely to deteriorate rapidly [3]. Market Expectations - Federal funds futures indicate that investors expect rate cuts in October and December, with a significant majority anticipating at least two more 25 basis point cuts by year-end [4]. - The FOMC is weighing the dual risks of inflation and employment in their decision-making process [4]. Government Shutdown Impact - The ongoing government shutdown may hinder data collection and reporting from key economic indicators, potentially affecting the FOMC's decision-making in the upcoming meetings [4].

【导读】 美联储会议纪要显示，即使官员降息，仍对通胀保持谨慎 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，关注一下美联储的重磅消息。 10月9日凌晨， 美联储公布9月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议纪要。美联储官员们在9月政策会议上表现出今年进一步降息的意愿， 但同时也因通胀风险而保持谨慎。 自9月会议以来，包括美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊和米歇尔·鲍曼在内的美联储理事都提到，劳动力市场的强劲是需要降息的理由。米兰则 认为，中性利率低于普遍认知，这意味着美联储需要更快降息。特朗普及多名政府官员也引用近期数据，越来越多地呼吁美联储立即降 息。 联邦基金利率期货显示，投资者预计10月和12月大概率会降息。 纪要写道："几乎所有接受纽约联储交易台调查的受访者都预计本次会议将把联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，约半数受访者预计10 月会议还将进一步降息。绝大多数受访者预计到年底至少会有两次25个基点的降息，约半数预计会有三次。" | 重点内容如下。 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 美联储官员在上月的政策会议上表示，今年内有意进一步降息，但出于对通胀的担忧，许多人仍保持谨慎态度。 | | | | 根据联邦公 ...