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dbg盾博:鲍威尔最新演讲为降息留余地,警示高估值与市场脆弱性
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-24 09:21
Group 1 - The core message of Powell's speech emphasizes the dual risks of rising inflation and declining employment, indicating that the policy rate remains moderately restrictive, allowing for potential further rate cuts within the year [3][4] - The labor market is showing significant weakness, with an average monthly job growth of only 29,000 over the past three months, which is well below the level needed to maintain the unemployment rate [3] - Inflation concerns persist, with the core PCE inflation rate at 2.9% year-over-year in August, higher than the previous year's 2.3%, and tariffs are expected to cause a temporary price level increase [3][4] Group 2 - Financial stability risks are currently low, with healthy bank capital and household balance sheets; however, stock valuations are considered high, which may lead to tighter financial conditions [5] - Powell indirectly addressed political pressures on the Federal Reserve, asserting that monetary policy decisions will not be influenced by partisan politics [5] - The uncertainty surrounding public policies, including fiscal and regulatory factors, is contributing to hiring slowdowns, particularly affecting younger workers [5][6] Group 3 - Market interpretations suggest that Powell's remarks create a pathway for potential rate cuts in Q4, with a likelihood of a 25 basis point cut in November or December if labor market weakness continues [6] - The current policy rate is described as moderately restrictive, with future decisions dependent on data; if employment continues to weaken, further rate cuts may occur despite slightly elevated core inflation [6]
Australia's inflation tops one-year high in August
RTE.ie· 2025-09-24 07:09
Group 1: Inflation Data - Australian consumer prices rose 3% in August year-on-year, up from 2.8% in July, exceeding median forecasts of 2.9% [2] - The trimmed mean measure of core inflation was 2.6% in August, down from 2.7% in July, while a measure excluding volatile items increased to 3.4% from 3.2% [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - Investors are now betting that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will not change interest rates next week, with the likelihood of a rate cut in November dropping to 50% from nearly 70% [1] - Major banks including Barrenjoey, Deutsche Bank, and National Australia Bank have abandoned their calls for a rate cut in November due to the upside surprise in inflation data [3] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The RBA has indicated that the economy is in a good position, with inflation expected to return to the target band of 2% to 3% and the labor market nearing full employment [5] - The central bank forecasts headline inflation to rise to 3.1% by mid-next year, while core inflation is expected to remain around 2.6% [6] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - Price growth in the services sector, particularly in restaurant meals and takeaway food, has accelerated, indicating potential inflationary pressures [7] - New dwelling prices increased by 0.7% year-on-year to August, suggesting a stall in the disinflationary trend in the housing sector [7]
特朗普政府最头疼的问题之一,美国电价今冬预计大幅上涨
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-09-24 05:53
NEADA表示,电费上涨的原因是"电网维护和升级成本持续高企、天然气价格上涨以及数据中心需求的 不断增长"。 当美国消费者对牛肉等日用品价格飙升感到担忧、对夏季电费账单激增感到不解之际,一项新的预测报 告警告称,今年冬天美国家庭的取暖费用将会上涨。 美国国家能源援助主管协会(NEADA)的研究数据称,随着气温下降,美国家庭取暖成本平均将增加 7.6%,预计增幅最大的是电力(10.2%),这将使2025-2026年冬季平均取暖成本从2024-2025年冬季的 1093美元增至1205美元。 "过去几年,各种涨价商品都成了媒体关注的焦点,这个问题变得非常引人注目,人们也非常愤怒,电 费正朝着这个方向发展。"NEADA执行主任沃尔夫(Mark Wolfe)表示。 NEADA表示,电费上涨的原因是"电网维护和升级成本持续高企、天然气价格上涨以及数据中心需求的 不断增长"。 美国进步中心(Center for American Progress)最近的一份报告显示,全美超过100家天然气和电力公司已 经上调或计划在今年或明年上调电费,预计这将影响约8100万电力公司用户和约2800万天然气公司用 户。自进入夏季后,由于 ...
Australian Inflation Accelerates to Highest Level in a Year
WSJ· 2025-09-24 02:07
Core Insights - Inflation pressures in Australia are increasing, with the monthly reading in August reaching its highest level in over a year [1] Economic Indicators - The inflation rate has shown a significant rise, indicating potential economic challenges ahead [1]
Retirement Fear Is Real: 64% Worry More About Running Out Of Money Than Death Itself
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-23 23:01
Core Insights - A significant majority of Americans, 64%, fear running out of money in retirement more than death itself, highlighting a deep-seated anxiety regarding financial security in later years [1] Economic Pressures - Rising prices are identified as the primary cause of this anxiety, with 54% of respondents citing inflation as their main concern [2] - Additionally, 43% worry about insufficient social security support and 43% are anxious about high taxes impacting their savings [2] Generational Concerns - The fear of financial insecurity spans across generations, with Gen Xers showing the highest level of anxiety at 70%, followed closely by Millennials at 66%, and Boomers at 61% [3] Lack of Action - Despite the widespread concern, only 23% of individuals have consulted a financial professional about retirement planning, a decrease from 28% the previous year [4] - Furthermore, 62% of respondents are not saving as much for retirement as they would prefer [4] Awareness vs. Action - While many Americans recognize the importance of saving for retirement, only 44% indicated they would save more, 41% would cut current spending, and 39% would consider working longer [5] Recommended Actions - To alleviate retirement fears, individuals are advised to assess their financial situation, utilize high-yield savings accounts, take advantage of employer retirement matches, prioritize paying down high-interest debt, and seek professional financial advice [6]
Powell Warns The Fed Faces a 'Challenging' Situation in Setting Interest Rates
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-23 20:25
Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images The Fed continues to emphasize that it currently has no "risk-free" path. Key Takeaways Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the economy is pulling the central bank's policy in two different directions, as the job market weakens while inflation remains elevated. The central bank has started cutting interest rates, but could change its strategy if inflation gets worse. Two other Fed policymakers spoke Tuesday, with one advocating for gradual rate cuts and the other for more dec ...
I inherited a bunch of gold jewelry from my grandmother and I know it’s worth a lot. Is now the time to sell?
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-23 19:45
Group 1: Gold Market Overview - Gold has experienced significant growth, with an estimated 68% increase expected by March 2025 for investments made at the beginning of 2023 [1] - Current gold prices are approximately $3,700 per ounce, reaching record highs [5] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - There is a rising trend of individuals and families selling or melting old jewelry to access cash due to the strong gold market [4] - The motivation for selling includes covering urgent expenses and capitalizing on the increased value of previously overlooked pieces [4] Group 3: Selling Gold Jewelry - It is advised to conduct thorough research before selling gold jewelry, as not all pieces should be melted down [5] - Items with historical or artistic value may be worth more in their original form, necessitating consultation with a reputable jeweler or appraiser [6] - The competitive nature of the gold marketplace suggests that consumers should compare offers from multiple shops and conduct online research to secure the best price [6]
Jerome Powell says Fed in ‘challenging situation' as central bank officials divided over rates
New York Post· 2025-09-23 17:13
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday the central bank is in a “challenging situation” with an ongoing risk of faster-than-expected inflation at the same time that weak job growth has raised concern about the health of the labor market.In comments prepared for delivery to Rhode Island’s Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce, Powell offered little indication of when he thinks the Fed might next cut interest rates, noting that there was danger to both cutting too fast and risking a new surge of in ...
Fed Speakers Show Rate Cut Divide, PCE Friday to Add Clarity
Youtube· 2025-09-23 13:45
Let's get to Kevin Hanks live at the CBOE and the pre-bell playbook. What's going on there. Good morning, Kevin. Good morning, Nicole.A quiet morning for futures and most uh products moving the markets this morning, but remember yesterday we opened down and fired higher the minute the market opened. So, a very quiet market to start the morning. You know, uh a lot of the futures are very close to unchanged.You've got 10-year yields slightly lower. You got the dollar slightly lower, but all very close to home ...
26 Stocks Jim Cramer Offered Insights On
Insider Monkey· 2025-09-23 13:04
Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - Investors are advised to closely monitor upcoming economic indicators and corporate earnings as they may influence market movements [1] - A significant discussion between the U.S. President and President Xi of China regarding TikTok and potential trade deals is expected to impact stock prices [2] - Concerns are raised about the bond market following the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts, which have led to declining bond prices and rising yields, potentially hindering the housing market [3] Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, a key inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve, is highlighted as crucial for understanding inflation trends [4] - The interpretation of inflation data is complicated by tariff-related distortions, and the Fed may delay rate cuts until there is clear evidence of controlled inflation [4] Stock Insights from Jim Cramer - Rocket Companies, Inc. (NYSE:RKT) is discussed in the context of potential benefits from falling mortgage rates due to rate cuts, but Cramer suggests Wells Fargo as a more favorable investment [9] - Okta, Inc. (NASDAQ:OKTA) is noted for its identity management solutions, but Cramer prefers Palo Alto Networks due to its acquisition of CyberArk [10]