美国在瑞士国庆日（8月1日）意外地宣布对瑞士征收全欧洲大陆最高关税，瑞士股市周一开盘大概率将受关税消息冲击。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):特朗普签署行政令，确定了对多个国家和地区征收的“对等关税”税率，具体税率从10%至41%不等，其中对瑞士征收39%的关税。 https://t.co/whZKuBskQe ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the U.S. is moving forward with a new round of tariffs on multiple countries, which has implications for trade relations and market stability [1][2][3] - U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer stated that the new tariffs, including 35% on Canadian goods, 50% on Brazilian goods, 25% on Indian goods, and 39% on Swiss goods, are "basically set" and will not be adjusted during current negotiations [2][3] - President Trump criticized the former Labor Statistics Bureau chief, Erica McEntyre, for allegedly inflating employment data before the election and subsequently revising it down by nearly 1 million jobs, which he termed a "scam" [3][4] Group 2 - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, as evidenced by the July unemployment rate rising and non-farm payrolls underperforming market expectations [4] - The Labor Department's recent data revision for May and June, which significantly lowered previously reported job numbers, has led to strong dissatisfaction from the Trump administration, resulting in the dismissal of McEntyre [4]

巴斯科批评欧洲领导人应对软弱，称欧盟有反制美国压力的手段，但其反应力度明显不足。目前，美欧 新贸易协议还不具约束力，协议生效尚需欧盟27国一致批准。 人民财讯8月4日电，近日，西班牙巴塞罗那大学经济学副教授塞尔吉·巴斯科表示，欧盟从与美国的新 贸易协议中获益甚微，德国可能是欧盟最大输家。 巴斯科表示，美欧新贸易协议规定，美国对欧盟商品征收15%的关税，许多美国输往欧洲的商品则免 税。巴斯科认为，欧洲仅有的"积极结果"是输美关税被定为15%，而不是30%。他指出，作为欧盟对美 最大出口国，德国的损失可能最大。关税或导致德国汽车对美销量下降，而西班牙等国的汽车产业也会 受到波及。 （文章来源：央视新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - Apple's FY3Q25 revenue and profit exceeded expectations, with a notable performance in iPhone, Mac, and services, marking the strongest quarterly revenue growth since FY1Q22 [3] Group 1: Financial Performance - FY3Q25 revenue reached $94.04 billion, a year-over-year increase of 10%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of $89.3 billion [3] - Gross margin for the quarter was 46.5%, at the upper end of the previous guidance of 45.5%-46.5%, primarily due to lower-than-expected tariff impacts [3] - Net profit for FY3Q25 was $23.43 billion, a year-over-year increase of 9.3%, with basic EPS of $1.57, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of $1.43 [3] Group 2: Future Guidance - For FY4Q25, Apple expects mid-to-high single-digit year-over-year revenue growth, which is above market expectations [4] - The company anticipates service revenue growth to remain around 13%, similar to FY3Q25, assuming stable global tariff policies and no significant macroeconomic deterioration [4] - Projected gross margin for the next quarter is between 46%-47%, despite an expected $1.1 billion increase in costs due to tariffs [4] Group 3: iPhone Performance - FY3Q25 iPhone revenue was $44.58 billion, a year-over-year increase of 13%, significantly above Bloomberg's consensus estimate of $40.22 billion [5] - Global iPhone shipments for 2Q25 were 46.4 million units, a year-over-year increase of 1.5%, outperforming the overall smartphone market [5] - The growth in iPhone revenue was driven by preemptive consumer demand due to tariff concerns and strong sales of the iPhone 16 series, particularly in the Greater China region, which saw a 4% year-over-year revenue increase [5]

当地时间7月27日，美国总统特朗普与欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩在苏格兰举行了会晤。会后，特朗普表 示，美国已与欧盟达成新贸易协议，对欧盟输美商品征收15%的关税。 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩称，15%税率是欧委会能够达成的最佳结果。此外，钢铁和铝、芯片、烈酒三 大关键领域的关税协议仍待定。 而且以法德为代表的欧盟诸国，一直是想脱离美国的掌控，与美国进行对等谈判。之前在支援乌克兰问 题上，特朗普单方面和俄罗斯谈，断供乌克兰。但欧盟不认这个邪，单方面支援乌克兰，结果乌克兰也 没崩溃，照样打下去了。 理论上如今在关税问题上，欧盟也效仿中国，对美国丝毫不让，那结果或许也会博得一个公平的关税税 率。但冯德莱恩此次对美谈判，直接"缴械投降"，15%的关税虽说不算离谱，但也是凭空白给美国人的 利润。而且后面的附加条件更是要人老命。 但这还没完，特朗普称："欧盟还承诺购买美国7500亿美元的能源产品，并在美追加投资6000亿美元。 此外，欧盟将大规模购买美国军事装备"。 这就是冯德莱恩和特朗普谈后的欧盟与美国对等关税谈判结果。结果出来后，欧盟各国领导人瞬间坐不 住了，直接开喷。 匈牙利总理欧尔班在28日播出的网络节目中表示，欧盟与美 ...

Market Performance - U.S. stock indices collectively fell over 2% this week, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq down 2.36%, 2.92%, and 2.17% respectively[11] - The German DAX, London FTSE 100, Nikkei 225, and Korea Composite Index also experienced declines of 3.27%, 0.57%, 1.58%, and 2.40% respectively[11] Economic Data - Non-farm payroll data was significantly below expectations, with a downward revision of 258,000 jobs in the previous two months, leading to increased concerns about economic momentum[5] - The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, consistent with expectations, primarily influenced by immigration effects[5] Federal Reserve Insights - The FOMC meeting maintained interest rates, with a cautious stance on potential rate cuts in September, dropping the probability of a cut below 40% initially[29] - Following the disappointing non-farm data, market expectations for a 25 basis point cut in September surged to 80.3%, with predictions for three rate cuts in total this year[29] Currency and Bond Market - The U.S. dollar index rose by 1.04% over the week, while the euro and Chinese yuan fell by 1.32% and 0.11% respectively[11] - U.S. Treasury yields saw significant declines, with the 2-year yield down 22 basis points and the 10-year yield down 17 basis points by August 1[12] Commodity Market - Gold prices increased by 0.93% amid rising inflation concerns due to tariffs, while copper prices plummeted by 23.88% following a 50% tariff announcement on certain copper products[13] - WTI crude oil prices rose by 3.37% during the week[13] Trade and Tariff Developments - President Trump announced new tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on various imports, with a 40% transit tax on transshipped goods, effective August 7[34] - Tariff concerns have heightened market volatility and investor caution, impacting overall market sentiment[11]

Core Viewpoint - Apple has successfully reversed its declining revenue trend in Greater China by implementing price reductions, leading to a record high revenue in Q2 of fiscal year 2025 [2][6]. Financial Performance - In Q2, Apple reported revenue of $94.036 billion, a 10% increase from $85.777 billion year-over-year, and a net profit of $23.434 billion, up 9% from $21.448 billion [2]. - Revenue from iPhone reached approximately $44.58 billion, a year-over-year growth of nearly 13.5%, while Mac revenue was $8.05 billion, growing 14.8%, and services revenue was $27.42 billion, up nearly 13.3% [2]. Market Dynamics - The growth in Q2 was partly driven by U.S. consumers purchasing devices ahead of tariff implementations, with approximately 1% of the growth attributed to this behavior [4][5]. - Apple incurred about $800 million in tariff costs in Q2, with expectations of these costs rising to $1.1 billion in the next quarter, posing challenges to profitability [5][6]. Regional Performance - Apple achieved a revenue of $15.369 billion in Greater China, marking a growth of over 4% from $14.728 billion year-over-year, successfully reversing a seven-quarter decline [6]. - The sales growth in Greater China was primarily attributed to increased iPhone sales and the impact of government subsidies on digital products [6][7]. Pricing Strategy - Apple has broken its tradition of avoiding price cuts, significantly reducing prices on flagship models like the iPhone 16 Pro to stimulate sales [7]. - The price reduction strategy has led to a surge in sales, with Apple regaining the top position in both sales volume and revenue during the 618 shopping festival [7]. Competitive Landscape - Concerns exist regarding the sustainability of sales driven by price reductions, as Apple currently lacks a fundamental advantage over Android competitors [8]. - The closure of an Apple Store in Dalian has raised market concerns about Apple's commitment to the Chinese market, although the company continues to expand its retail presence in other areas [8].

周度报告-黄金 美国 7 月非农爆冷，黄金震荡收涨 [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] 黄金：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 8 月 3 日 [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金涨 0.8%至 3363 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.22%，通胀 预期 2.33%，实际利率降至 1.88%，美元指数涨 1.54%至 99.1，标普 500 指数跌 2.36%，离岸人民币小幅贬值，沪金小幅溢价。 贵 金 属 金价先跌后涨最终收涨，随着 8 月 1 日对等关税生效日的带来， 美国陆续与贸易伙伴达成协议，墨西哥关税协议将延长 90 天，加 拿大关税从 25%升至 35%，韩国加征 15%关税，印度加征 255 关 税，中美搞成谈判意在将关税再度延长 90 天，上午实质进展。整 体而言关税引发的避险情绪有限，当前的不确定性远低于 4 月， 叠加美联储 7 月利率会议按兵不动，美联储主席鲍威尔表态鹰派， 黄金出现回调，一度跌破 3300 美金以及 60 日均线。但美联储内 部分歧巨大，鲍曼和沃勒两位理事投票降息，后续特朗普也将提 名更加倾向降息的人选。美国经济数据喜忧参半，首先是二季度 GDP 数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Patsalides indicates that the Eurozone economy is demonstrating resilience, with current uncertainties primarily attributed to tariffs [1] Group 1 - The Eurozone economy is showing signs of resilience despite challenges [1] - Current uncertainties in the economic landscape are mainly due to tariff-related issues [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the significant downward revision of June non-farm data reflects substantial disruptions to the U.S. economy due to tariffs, suggesting that the resilience of the U.S. economy should not be overestimated, and the direction of interest rate cuts remains highly certain [2][4][17] - In July, non-farm employment increased by 73,000, which is below the expected 110,000, and the previous value was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, indicating pressure on the U.S. job market [6][11][22] - The unemployment rate in July rose to 4.2%, up from 4.1% in the previous month, while the average hourly wage increased by 3.9% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.8% [1][6][31] Group 2 - In July, the financial activities, healthcare, and retail sectors added 15,000, 79,000, and 16,000 jobs respectively, showing a stable demand in the service sector [3][22] - The manufacturing sector has seen negative job growth for three consecutive months, indicating insufficient production willingness among enterprises [3][22] - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.2% in July, down from 62.3% in the previous month, with a notable decline in employment willingness among younger demographics [26][31] Group 3 - The downward revision of June non-farm data was primarily due to significant adjustments in government, leisure, and hotel employment, which collectively accounted for a 90,000 downward revision, representing nearly 70% of the total revision [12][17] - The cumulative downward revision for May and June non-farm data reached 258,000, while the July employment figure of 73,000 is a significant drop compared to the average monthly increase of over 100,000 in the first quarter [4][17] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times in 2025, with an 80% probability for the first cut in September [4][21][37] Group 4 - The average hourly wage growth has shown an upward trend, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in July, higher than the previous 0.2% [37][39] - The service sector's job growth in July rebounded to 96,000, compared to a previous value of 16,000, indicating a relatively stable demand in the service industry [22][31] - The overall economic environment remains challenging, with second-quarter GDP growth at 3.0%, driven by a "import rush" effect, while core GDP growth has declined [18][22]