当地时间7月30日，美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）公布最新利率决议，连续第五次将联邦基金利 率目标区间维持在4.25%—4.50%不变，符合市场预期。 值得注意的是，本次美联储声明较上次有三处变化，除了有两人支持降息这一变化外，美联储承认美国 经济有所降温，将"经济活动继续稳步扩张"表述，修改为"上半年经济活动增长有所放缓"。 此外，美联储还修改了对经济前景不确定性的表述，从6月会议的"经济前景的不确定性有所下降，但仍 处于较高水平"改为"经济前景的不确定性仍处于较高水平"。 鲍威尔表示，近期的一些数据表明，美国经济活动增速有所放缓，主要是因为消费者支出（包括出口） 有所减少。相比之下，企业在设备和无形资产上的投资比去年有所上升。住房市场的活动仍然疲弱。 通胀方面，通胀率自2022年年中高点大幅回落，但仍略高于2%的长期目标。受到关税的影响，近期一 些衡量通胀预期的指标整体有所上升。但从更长期来看，大多数通胀预期指标仍然与美联储2%的目标 相符。 鲍威尔在回答记者提问时表示，关税对商品通胀的影响才刚刚开始显现。它的实际影响可能比大家估计 的多，也可能比估计的少，但肯定不会是零。"消费者会承担一部分，企业会 ...

作者：李丹、赵雨荷，华尔街见闻 "新美联储通讯社"："罕见"两人反对，要求立即降息，凸显联储决策者对关税影响的共识在 破裂。 经济学家认为本次声明比预期偏鸽派，9月降息可能性增加，预计本周将公布的PCE和非农 就业数据可能加剧联储分歧。 鲍威尔未就9月降息给出指引，称现在就断言美联储是否会像金融市场预期的那样在9月下调 联邦基金利率还为时过早，给市场对9月降息的预期降温。 尽管美国总统特朗普最近首次亲自"上门"敦促降息，特朗普政府的官员和共和党人一再借"装修门"施 压，美联储仍不为所动。 但这一次，美联储暴露了自去年9月启动降息周期以来对降息行动最大的内部分歧，并且对经济活动的 表述有偏鸽派的调整。 美东时间7月30日周三，美联储在货币政策委员会FOMC会后公布，联邦基金利率的目标区间仍维持在 4.25%至4.5%。 要点： 美联储如市场所料继续暂停降息。 至此，FOMC连续五次货币政策会议决定暂停行动。联储自去年9月起连续三次会议降息，合计降幅100 个基点，自今年1月特朗普上台以来，一直按兵不动。 FOMC票委中，鲍威尔等九人继续支持按兵不动，沃勒和鲍曼主张本次降息25个基点。 相比上次声明，本次删除经济 ...

韩国总统李在明宣布韩国已与美国“结束关税谈判”，并表示这批3500亿美元的资金“将在促进韩国企业积极进入美国市场方面发挥作用，这些行业都是我们具有优势的行业，例如造船、半导体、电池、生物技术和能源”，其中1500亿美元将用于“造船合作，为韩国企业进入美国造船业提供强有力的支持”，并补充说，“实现互利互惠的结果非常重要，而不仅仅是追求单方面的利益。”外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):特朗普表示，美韩双方达成一致，美国将对韩国征收15%的关税。同时，美国不会被征收关税。韩国将对美全面开放贸易，接受包括汽车、卡车和农产品在内的美国产品。 ...

7月30日（周三），伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价跌至逾一周以来最低，因库存增加，且投资者担心美 国即将实施的关税将打击需求。 市场也在等待美联储当天晚些时候的政策声明，预计利率将保持不变。"如果他们不降息，我认为大宗 商品将面临压力，"Price补充道。 美国Comex期铜下跌0.73%，至每磅5.60美元，较LME期铜的升水报每吨2,619美元。 据新华社报道，中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢29日晚在瑞典斯德哥尔摩说，根据中美新 一轮经贸会谈共识，双方将继续推动已暂停的美方对等关税24%部分以及中方反制措施如期展期。 Panmure Liberum 大宗商品策略主管Tom Price表示："我认为投资者的参与已经停滞。" "海外投资者实际上已经在消化这些关税的需求风险，因为在需求没有变化的情况下，铜价突然变得很 贵。50%的关税是一个惊人的数字。" LME的数据显示，LME注册仓库的库存激增，显示出市场供应过剩。LME铜库存在过去一个月猛增 51%，至136,850吨。 伦敦时间7月30日17:00(北京时间7月31日00:00)，LME三个月期铜下跌99.5美元，或1.02%，收报每吨 9,69 ...

Core Viewpoint - Timken reported Q2 2025 results with earnings per share (Non-GAAP) of $1.42, exceeding analyst expectations of $1.36, while revenue was $1.17 billion, slightly above the estimate of $1.15 billion. However, both adjusted EBITDA margin and net income margin declined year-over-year, leading management to lower the full-year earnings outlook due to ongoing demand softness and tariffs [1][2][14]. Financial Performance - Q2 2025 EPS (Non-GAAP) was $1.42, down 12.9% from $1.63 in Q2 2024 [2] - Revenue for Q2 2025 was $1.17 billion, a decrease of 0.8% from $1.18 billion in Q2 2024 [2] - Adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 17.7%, down 1.8 percentage points from 19.5% in the prior year [2] - Net income margin decreased to 6.7% from 8.1% year-over-year [2] - Free cash flow (Non-GAAP) was $78 million, down 10.3% from $87 million in Q2 2024 [2] Business Overview and Strategy - Timken specializes in engineered bearings and power transmission products, with a strong reputation for quality and technical leadership [3] - The company operates in 45 countries, serving diverse sectors including renewable energy, transport, and industrial automation, with no single customer exceeding 6% of total sales [4] - Recent strategic focuses include maintaining leadership in bearings, expanding through acquisitions, and managing supply chain and raw material costs amid tariffs [4][12] Segment Insights - Revenue dipped 0.8% due to demand weakness across major business areas, with organic sales declining 2.5% [5] - Engineered Bearings sales fell 0.8%, while the Industrial Motion segment saw a 0.7% drop in sales [7] - The acquisition of CGI contributed $14 million to revenue, helping to stabilize overall sales [5] Profitability Challenges - Profitability was pressured with net income margin at 6.7%, down from 8.1%, due to lower volumes and increased costs from tariffs [6] - Both Engineered Bearings and Industrial Motion segments experienced lower adjusted EBITDA margins, decreasing by 1.5 and 1.7 percentage points, respectively [6] Cash Flow and Financial Position - Free cash flow was $78.2 million, down from $87.3 million year-over-year, but cash and equivalents increased [11] - Net debt rose to $1.78 billion, with a net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio of 2.3x, up from 2.0x at the end of 2024 [11] Future Guidance - Management revised full-year earnings guidance to an adjusted EPS range of $5.10 to $5.40, with revenue expected to be flat to down 2.5% compared to 2024 [14] - Key areas to monitor include the ability to manage tariff costs, the impact of restructuring actions, and demand in growth sectors like renewable energy [15]

Group 1 - The core message from Powell's speech indicates a significant shift in market sentiment, with the probability of a rate cut in September dropping from 63% to 45.7% following his comments [1][3] - Powell acknowledged a slowdown in economic growth, particularly in consumer spending and real estate, while asserting that the economy remains in a stable state [3] - His remarks on inflation suggest a complex stance, stating that the process of inflation decline is halfway complete, yet warning that tariffs could increase commodity prices, indicating a cautious approach to future rate cuts [3][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is now prioritizing "risk balance," meaning that if the economy continues to weaken, a rate cut is likely, but if inflation rises unexpectedly, they may reconsider [4] - Upcoming CPI and non-farm payroll data will be critical in determining the likelihood of a rate cut in September, with a target inflation rate of below 2.8% being a key indicator [4] - The market's reaction to Powell's speech reflects a broader uncertainty, emphasizing the importance of data as the true "referee" in the Fed's decision-making process [4]

2025.07. 31 本文字数：369，阅读时长大约1分钟 据央视新闻，当地时间7月30日，美国总统特朗普发文称，美国已与韩国达成"全面完整"的贸易协 议。根据协议，韩国将向美国提供3500亿美元，用于由美方拥有并控制的投资项目。此外，韩国还 将采购价值1000亿美元的液化天然气或其他能源产品，并承诺再投资一笔大额资金，用于其本国投 资目的。该金额将在韩国总统李在明两周后访美举行双边会谈时公布。 特朗普表示，美韩双方达成一致， 美国将对韩国征收15%的关税 。同时，美国不会被征收关税。韩 国将对美全面开放贸易，接受包括汽车、卡车和农产品在内的美国产品。 微信编辑 | 七三 第 一 财 经 持 续 追 踪 财 经 热 点 。 若 您 掌 握 公 司 动 态 、 行 业 趋 势 、 金 融 事 件 等 有 价 值 的 线 索 ， 欢 迎 提 供 。 专 用 邮 箱 ： bianjibu@yicai.com （注：我们会对线索进行核实。您的隐私将严格保密。） 推荐阅读 多个"新大学"首年招生分数线直超985高校，原因何在 ...

占经济活动三分之二以上的消费者支出在1月至3月放缓至0.5%后，以1.4%的速度增长。 值得注意的是，不包括贸易、库存和政府在内的私人国内销售（Private Domestic Sales），这一潜在经 济增长的晴雨表在第一季度以1.9%的速度增长后放缓至1.2%。这是自2022年第四季度以来美国国内需 求增长最慢的一次，家庭在医疗保健上的支出上升，但在其他商品和服务上的支出更为谨慎。 在经历了三年来最差表现之后，美国经济在第二季度强劲复苏，国内生产总值GDP规模首次超过30万亿 美元。不过有分析认为，数字可能夸大了经济的健康状况，因为进口下降是增速改善的主要原因，显示 关键消费需求的指标正以两年半以来最慢的速度增长。随着企业和消费者努力应对持续的贸易战，经济 或将表现出疲软的迹象。 进口降温打压贸易逆差 根据美国经济分析局BEA周三发布的初步统计显示，美国第二季度GDP年化季率3%，这一结果大幅超 过了市场2.4%的增长预期，标志着自去年第三季度以来最强劲的增长速度。 今年第一季度，随着家庭和企业寻求应对与关税相关的价格上涨，美国进口激增。创纪录的贸易逆差导 致GDP以0.5%的速度下降。第二季度数据失真得 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates aligns with market expectations, indicating a cautious approach towards potential rate cuts due to ongoing inflation risks from tariffs and a stable labor market [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Signals - There is internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding policy direction, with two board members opposing the decision to keep rates unchanged, marking the first time since 1993 that two members have voted against a collective decision [2] - Powell and the majority of officials prefer to maintain a tight monetary policy, citing that the inflation effects from tariffs will gradually manifest over the coming months, impacting U.S. businesses and consumers [2][3] - Powell acknowledged that current monetary policy is somewhat restrictive, contributing to downward pressure on the labor market, despite a rebound in GDP growth [3] Group 2: Independence of the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is committed to maintaining its independence, despite pressure from President Trump to lower interest rates, emphasizing that monetary policy aims to achieve full employment and stable inflation, not to assist the government in reducing debt costs [3][6] - The structure of the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, which involves a committee of 12 voting members, ensures that even if Trump were to dismiss Powell, the overall direction of monetary policy would remain unchanged [6] Group 3: Future Outlook on Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is not prepared to cut rates in the near term, with future decisions dependent on inflation trends, which are expected to rise in the latter half of the year primarily due to tariffs [4][5] - The current fiscal policy environment is expected to remain relatively loose, which may lead to sustained economic growth and inflation, suggesting that monetary policy could remain tight for an extended period [5]

特朗普将最主要的精炼铜进口形式排除在关税计划之外（市场原本预期所有精炼金属进口都将被征税）后，纽约铜价在数分钟内暴跌约20%。并创下历史最大单日跌幅。根据文件，美国将自8月1日起对进口半成品铜产品（例如铜管、铜线、铜棒、铜板和铜管）及铜密集型衍生产品（例如管件、电缆、连接器和电气元件）普遍征收50%的关税。白宫表示，铜输入材料（例如铜矿石、精矿、锍铜、阴极铜和阳极铜）和铜废料不受“232条款”或对等关税约束。 ...