•Sprott：黄金下一轮上涨将由机构需求推动 转自：新华财经 •金瑞期货：地缘持续紧张 金银处于高波动状态 •光大期货：市场对美元信用的动摇成为黄金有力的助推因素 •铜冠金源期货：地缘风险叠加美联储独立性担忧 金银再创新高 •高盛：央行需求持续增强 上调年底金价目标至5400美元 编辑：郭洲洋 【机构分析】 金瑞期货表示，当前地缘局势持续紧张，特别是格陵兰岛问题持续升级，美国国内方面联储新任主席提 名人公布在即，全面关税面临最高法院裁决；市场不确定性加剧。白银方面，市场投资需求有韧性，现 货仍较为紧张。短期来看，金银当前处于高波动状态，价格整体呈现宽幅震荡。从宏观和基本面来看， 美联储货币政策宽松利率回落的趋势并未发生改变，中长期包括主权国家赤字问题、地缘风险以及去美 元化驱动的央行购金等因素并未改变，白银的供需矛盾也持续存在，贵金属价格的长期核心驱动因素仍 保持稳健。 光大期货表示，美国Q3实际GDP季环比终值小幅上修至4.4%，创两年来最快增速，核心PCE通胀保持 在2.9%;美11月PCE物价指数同比2.8%，环比涨0.2%，均符合预期，通胀预期稳定，消费支出稳健。地 缘政治方面，随着格陵兰岛成为市场 ...

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The global economic recovery process will continue to face pressure in 2025 due to multiple shocks, including "reciprocal tariffs," deteriorating trade environments, increased foreign exchange market volatility, and intensified geopolitical conflicts [1] - In 2026, global economic growth is projected to slow down slightly to around 2.7%-3.1%, with emerging economies, particularly in Asia, continuing to show strong performance [2] - Developed economies are expected to experience low growth rates, with the US projected at 1.8%-2.2%, the Eurozone at 0.9%-1.2%, and Japan at 0.7%-0.9% [2] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Global inflation is expected to moderate from 3.4% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, creating favorable conditions for monetary policy adjustments and economic recovery [5] - The US may face inflation rebound pressures due to sticky service prices and the delayed effects of tariffs, which may not fully manifest until mid-2026 [5] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy may experience significant volatility, with potential for both accelerated rate cuts and rapid shifts to rate hikes depending on inflation trends [6] Group 3: US-China Trade Relations - The US-China economic relationship is expected to enter a phase of relative easing in 2026, moving towards selective cooperation in non-sensitive areas [9] - The US has acknowledged China's compliance with trade agreements and is seeking to rebalance trade, while China is promoting dialogue and cooperation in emerging industries [10] - Despite the easing, underlying tensions remain, particularly in high-tech sectors and potential military interventions by the US [10] Group 4: Global Trade Environment - The global trade environment is showing signs of weak recovery after significant disruptions caused by the US's "reciprocal tariffs" policy in 2025 [13] - The US is likely to pragmatically adjust its trade protection measures, potentially reducing tariffs and engaging in high-level negotiations with China [14] - "South-South trade" is expected to gain importance, with emerging economies seeking to reduce reliance on developed markets, projected to grow at 8% in 2025 [15] Group 5: Financial Market Dynamics - Global stock markets are anticipated to experience upward movement in 2026, driven by a continuation of the rate-cutting cycle and moderate corporate earnings recovery [21] - The US stock market may enter a "structural bull market" phase, characterized by high valuations and significant differentiation among sectors [21] - Emerging markets are expected to attract more investment due to favorable conditions, including policy support and competitive advantages in labor and resources [23] Group 6: Currency and Commodity Trends - The US dollar is projected to remain weak in 2026, influenced by declining interest rates and increasing government debt [24] - The trend of "de-dollarization" is expected to continue, impacting the dollar's dominance in global markets [26] - Gold prices are anticipated to experience high volatility but remain generally strong, driven by geopolitical risks and the weakening of the dollar [27]

（韩国综指保持强势涨0.9%） 分析认为欧美贸易战警报的暂时解除，显著提振了全球投资者的风险偏好，并加速了一场潜在的、更深层次的资产轮动。 由于对美国政策不可预测性的担忧，资金正逐步从估值高企的美国资产中流出，转向估值更具吸引力且地缘政治风险相对较远的亚洲市场。这一 轮动直接导致美元走弱，并为亚太股市和贵金属等资产提供了强劲的上行动能。 Natixis IM Solutions全球市场策略主管Mabrouk Chetouane表示： （三星电子上涨1.7%） 日经225指数上涨0.34%，澳大利亚S&P/ASX 200指数一度上涨0.45%。值得注意的是，前一日刚刚历史性突破5000点大关的韩国综合股指继续保 持强势，盘中一度涨至1.4%。 亚洲地区远离美国、欧盟和拉丁美洲等地缘政治中心，这种距离就像一道屏障，使投资者能够分散对风险资产的敞口。 值得注意的是，亚洲市场的焦点将集中在日本央行的利率决议上，预计日本央行将维持政策利率在0.75%不变。此前，首相高市早苗提出的扩大 支出计划曾引发金融市场动荡，因此日本央行的政策表态将受到密切关注。 全球资金正加速拥抱估值更具吸引力且有增长韧性的亚洲市场。亚太地区股市 ...

加拿大财长商鹏飞说，各国正在使贸易关系多样化，并加强区域内贸易，以使其经济更能抵御贸易政策 的冲击。相关研究预测，美国在整体全球贸易中的作用将不如以往。 今日周五(1月23日)亚盘时段，伦敦银目前交投于98.28一线上方，今日开盘于96.19美元/盎司，截至发 稿，伦敦银暂报98.71美元/盎司，上涨2.66%，最高触及99.02美元/盎司，最低下探96.19美元/盎司，目 前来看，伦敦银盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 美国总统特朗普将关税作为外交政策工具的做法，本周在达沃斯加快了各国推动与美国以外国家进行贸 易的步伐。 白银从86.67美元开始的上升通道支撑着上涨趋势，其上边界97.22美元现已突破；若能持续保持在此阻 力之上，将保留突破的偏向。移动平均趋同背离(MACD)处于积极区域并持续上升，表明上行动能在增 强。此外，4小时图上的200期简单移动平均线(SMA)在91.47美元上方向上倾斜，白银保持在其上方， 维持日内看涨基调。 然而，相对强弱指数(RSI)为76.98，处于超买状态，可能会抑制短期内的涨幅。回调将受到位于91.47美 元上升的200期SMA的支撑，而更深的回调将遇到90.16美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic outlook for China in 2026, emphasizing the need for effective qualitative and quantitative growth, and identifies potential investment opportunities and market trends for investors. Monetary Policy - The current domestic interest rates are at historical lows, with room for further reduction. A small rate cut of 0.25-0.5 percentage points is likely in early 2026 to alleviate cost pressures and support long-term liquidity [4][5] - The People's Bank of China may lower policy rates by 0.1-0.3 percentage points to reduce social financing costs and stimulate consumption and investment [5] - Credit growth is expected to moderately recover, with government investment projects and policy financial tools supporting long-term loans in sectors like new energy and infrastructure [5] Market Trends - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are anticipated to continue a trend of oscillating upward, driven by corporate profit improvements, macro policy easing, and long-term capital inflows [6][7] - The government is expected to implement measures to boost market confidence, including promoting the use of policy tools, guiding institutional investments, and enhancing the registration system for new listings [7] Bond Market - The bond market is projected to maintain a low-interest, high-volatility environment, with 10-year government bond yields expected to range between 1.6% and 1.9% [8] - Credit bond issuance is anticipated to grow steadily, particularly in short-duration high-grade credit bonds, with yields expected between 2.0% and 2.5% [8] Investment Opportunities - Future technology innovation policies will focus on breakthroughs in key areas such as integrated circuits and artificial intelligence, with significant investment opportunities in sectors like semiconductors, new energy, and quantum technology [9] - The article highlights the potential for investment in strategic emerging industries, particularly in the context of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [9] Global Market Trends - The global economic landscape is transitioning from high volatility to a new equilibrium, with significant geopolitical tensions and economic challenges in developed economies [9][10] - The article notes that the U.S. stock market may enter a phase of high valuation and weak growth, with potential risks in the AI sector and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [10] Currency and Commodities - The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate in a two-way fluctuation, supported by domestic economic conditions and a weakening dollar [10] - Gold prices are projected to experience high volatility with an overall upward trend, while silver is expected to be more volatile due to its industrial applications [11][12] - Oil prices are likely to decline initially before recovering, with an average price forecasted between $60 and $70 per barrel in 2026 [11]

摘要今日周五(1月23日)亚盘时段，黄金价格走高，接近本周的历史高点，由于黄金均保持强劲的技术 面看涨态势，基于技术面的买盘十分活跃。2月黄金盘中上涨47.3美元，报4,884.8美元。 今日周五(1月23日)亚盘时段，黄金价格走高，接近本周的历史高点，由于黄金均保持强劲的技术面看 涨态势，基于技术面的买盘十分活跃。2月黄金盘中上涨47.3美元，报4,884.8美元。 【要闻速递】 尽管交易员和投资者的风险偏好有所上升，但这两种贵金属今天仍录得涨幅。特朗普总统周三下午表 示，他将不对反对其试图接管格陵兰岛的欧洲国家商品征收关税，理由是双方已就该岛达成"未来协议 的框架"。 然而，如果全球货币政策风险急剧下降，导致对冲头寸平仓，金价可能回调。地缘政治的变数仍是关 键：特朗普的不可预测性令欧盟警惕，跨大西洋关系虽暂缓和，但长期信心受损，可能引发更多波动。 总体而言，投资者应关注美联储会议、经济数据和北极部署进展。黄金在去美元化趋势中的角色日益凸 显，成为对抗不确定性的盾牌。在这个充满地缘风暴的时代，黄金不仅仅是投资品，更是全球稳定的锚 点。2026年的金市，将在多重因素交织下，继续书写超级牛市的传奇。 此外，克里 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of metal and mining-themed funds has significantly improved over the past year, with several funds achieving returns exceeding 100% due to a market recovery and rising commodity prices, particularly in the metals sector [2][3]. Fund Performance Summary - The top-performing fund, the招商中证有色金属矿业主题ETF, recorded a return of 139.48% from January 1, 2025, to January 21, 2026 [2][3]. - Other notable funds include: - 国泰中证沪深港黄金产业股票ETF with a return of 136.21% [3]. - 国泰中证有色金属矿业主题ETF at 135.81% [3]. - 华安中证沪深港黄金产业股票ETF at 134.35% [3]. - 平安中证沪深港黄金产业股票ETF at 133.02% [3]. - Active management products like 万家趋势领先A and C achieved returns of 131.81% and 130.78%, respectively [3][4]. Annual Performance Overview - In the complete year of 2025, major metal and mining-themed funds showed strong performance, with 15 products reporting annual returns exceeding 95%, and five funds achieving returns over 100% [6][8]. - The top annual performers included: - 国泰中证有色金属矿业主题ETF at 106.56% [8]. - 招商中证有色金属矿业主题ETF at 103.05% [8]. - 万家趋势领先A and C at 101.12% and 100.45%, respectively [8]. - 南方中证申万有色金属ETF at 100.11% [8]. Market Trends and Insights - The international gold price increased by over 73% from early 2025 to January 21, 2026, contributing to the rise in net values of gold-themed funds [3]. - Experts express a divided outlook on gold prices for 2026, with some suggesting a potential decline compared to 2025, while others highlight copper as a promising investment opportunity [2][10].

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc (CHF) has maintained a unique position as a safe-haven currency, supported by a combination of zero interest rate policy, regular foreign exchange interventions, and a differentiated economic backdrop, allowing it to avoid excessive appreciation while preserving its core value in a volatile global monetary environment [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is one of the few major central banks maintaining a zero interest rate, with a high threshold for reintroducing negative rates, contrasting sharply with the easing cycles of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank [1]. - The SNB reaffirmed its commitment to a 0% policy rate until the second half of 2027, even with inflation projected at only 0.4% in 2026, due to concerns over the long-term negative effects of negative rates on the Swiss pension and banking sectors [1]. - The Swiss economy, being export-oriented, faces challenges from global demand slowdown, with watch exports declining by 7.3% year-on-year in November 2025, and GDP growth forecasted to slow from 1.2% to 1.0% in 2026, alongside an increase in unemployment to 3.0% [1]. Group 2: Supportive Factors for the Swiss Franc - Switzerland's macroeconomic advantages, such as a current account surplus consistently above 4% of GDP and a net international investment position exceeding 100% of GDP, bolster the CHF's safe-haven status [2]. - Despite facing a 39% tariff from the U.S. in 2025, Switzerland quickly negotiated a reduction to 15%, leading to a rapid recovery in the trade account, with gold exports increasing significantly from an average of 0.3 tons to 128.2 tons [2]. - Switzerland's low government debt ratio of 40% and decades of political neutrality make the CHF a preferred choice for safe-haven investments amid global risks, although central bank interventions moderate excessive appreciation [2]. Group 3: Exchange Rate Dynamics - The CHF has remained within a narrow trading range of 0.79-0.81 against the USD, with the SNB's proactive measures neutralizing the impact of interest rate differentials [3]. - The CHF's performance diverges from other non-USD currencies, maintaining stability even amid global capital flows triggered by monetary policy changes from the ECB and BoJ [3]. - Short-term forecasts suggest the USD/CHF will oscillate between 0.79-0.80, with the SNB's interventions setting clear boundaries for exchange rates [3]. Group 4: Future Considerations - Key variables to monitor include the escalation of global geopolitical risks, which could lead to significant inflows of safe-haven capital, potentially surpassing the SNB's intervention thresholds and driving unexpected CHF appreciation [4]. - Changes in the SNB's intervention tools may occur if export weaknesses intensify, possibly leading to increased foreign exchange interventions or adjustments to the current deposit rates to manage CHF valuation [4]. - Overall, the CHF's trajectory in 2026 represents a new approach for safe-haven currencies, balancing the preservation of its safe-haven attributes, the health of the export economy, and stable exchange rate movements through active central bank management [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that the price of gold has surged, breaking the $4900 per ounce mark, reaching a historical high of $4953 per ounce as of January 23 [1] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to the long-term trend of "de-dollarization," which is seen as a structural factor supporting gold's value over time [2] - Multiple long-term trends are influencing gold prices, including the reconstruction of the international monetary system, rising macro leverage ratios, and the current economic cycle [2] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2026, the logic supporting the long-term rise in gold prices remains unchanged, with ongoing monetary easing and a continued trend of central banks purchasing gold [3] - The World Gold Council indicates that future policy risks, inflation expectations, and investor positions will shape the direction of gold prices [3] - Investment options for ordinary investors in the gold market include various products such as physical gold, gold-themed financial products, gold ETFs, and related stocks [4] Group 3 - As of January 23, the price of accumulated gold has exceeded 1100 yuan per gram, reflecting the overall upward trend in gold prices [4] - The price of branded gold has also increased, nearing 1500 yuan per gram as of January 23 [6]

2026年1月23日，国际黄金市场再迎历史性突破，伦敦现货黄金盘中强势站上4900美元/盎司关口，最高 触及4967.37美元/盎司，年内涨幅已逼近15%。行情快速传导至国内消费端，老庙黄金、周生生等头部 品牌足金饰报价同步走高，老庙黄金克价升至1548元，单日涨幅超50元，国内金饰市场同步进入高价区 间，折射出黄金金融属性与消费属性的双重共振。 国际金价突破4900美元，是多重长期支撑与短期催化叠加的结果。长期来看，美元信用弱化与"去美元 化"进程加速为金价提供底层支撑，美国债务高企、特朗普干预美联储独立性引发市场对美元资产的担 忧，各国央行持续增持黄金对冲风险，中国央行已连续14个月增持黄金，2025年12月末储备量达7415万 盎司，全球央行月均购金量预计2026年维持在60吨。短期催化则来自地缘风险与避险情绪，美欧贸易争 端、中东局势紧张等因素推升市场恐慌情绪，资金加速涌入黄金避险，VIX指数一度飙升至20.09，创 下去年11月以来新高。 美联储政策预期进一步强化金价涨势。市场普遍预测2026年美联储将下调基金利率50个基点，实际利率 下行降低黄金持有机会成本，推动西方黄金ETF持仓回升，全球最大黄 ...