Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged significantly, driven by geopolitical tensions and industrial demand, with recent developments indicating a potential for further price increases in the coming years [2][3][6]. Group 1: Price Movements and Market Reactions - On June 5, silver prices experienced a sharp increase, with London silver reaching $36.053 per ounce, marking the highest level since February 2012 [3]. - The announcement by the Trump administration to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum has led to heightened speculation that similar measures may be applied to other metals, including silver, thus increasing its demand as a safe-haven asset [4][5]. - Silver futures saw a significant increase in long positions, with total holdings rising by $2.8 billion, the largest two-day increase in the past year [5]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Demand - The recent economic uncertainty, highlighted by a contraction in U.S. service sector activity and slowing job growth, has led to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which typically benefits non-yielding precious metals like silver [3][6]. - Industrial demand for silver remains strong, particularly in clean energy technologies, with the silver market facing a supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [3][6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Investment Considerations - Analysts predict that the price gap between silver and gold may narrow from the current 27 percentage points to 10-15 percentage points over the next 1-2 years, driven by various economic factors [6][7]. - The current gold-silver ratio is significantly higher than historical averages, suggesting that silver may be undervalued relative to gold, which could attract investors and drive prices higher [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - Silver is gaining attention and momentum, potentially overshadowing gold as a preferred investment asset due to its dual role as both a financial asset and an industrial raw material [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - On Thursday, spot silver surged by 4.5%, reaching above $36 per ounce, marking the highest level since February 2012 [2]. - Over the past 12 months, gold has increased by 42% due to the U.S.-led tariff wars and central banks' significant gold purchases, while silver has only risen by approximately 15%, indicating a lag [7]. - The recent spike in silver prices is narrowing this gap, with significant inflows into silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs), increasing holdings by 2.2 million ounces in a single day [8]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Alexander Zumpfe from Heraeus Group noted that the current rally in silver is driven by technical momentum, improved fundamentals, and broader investor interest [4]. - Trend investors are reigniting their interest in silver, indicating a rotation from gold to silver [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Silver is experiencing a structural supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [9]. - Unlike gold, which relies solely on safe-haven demand, silver's structural shortage provides a solid foundation for price increases [10]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Factors - Recent macroeconomic changes, including a contraction in U.S. service sector activity and slowing job growth, have led to a decline in bond yields, prompting traders to bet on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in October and December [12]. - Lower interest rate environments typically benefit non-yielding precious metals, with silver often outperforming due to its higher price elasticity [13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent surge in silver prices may just be the beginning, as the combination of safe-haven demand, industrial shortages, and expectations of monetary easing historically leads to significant price impacts [14].

Group 1 - The precious metals market is experiencing a strong rally, with silver prices reaching a 13-year high and platinum hitting a two-year high, indicating investor enthusiasm for industrial precious metals [1] - As of Friday, spot silver continued its upward trend, having surged 4.5% the previous day, while platinum prices rose by 1.7% during the day, and gold also saw an increase [1] - The recent price increases are driven by both technical momentum and fundamental improvements, with strong physical silver demand in India and a recovery in platinum demand in China providing significant market support [1] Group 2 - Over the past 12 months, gold has risen over 40%, primarily supported by escalating global trade tensions and continued central bank purchases [1] - Although silver and platinum have year-to-date increases of approximately 19% and 13% respectively, they lag behind gold; however, their industrial properties are crucial drivers, with silver being a key material for solar panels and platinum widely used in internal combustion engines and catalytic converters [1] - Predictions indicate that both silver and platinum markets may face supply shortages this year [1] Group 3 - If silver can maintain a price above $35 per ounce, it may trigger increased retail investor interest; platinum ETF holdings have increased by over 3% since mid-May, indicating a return of funds to the market [1] - Silver ETFs have seen continuous inflows since February, with a nearly 8% increase in holdings [1] - Palladium prices also rose by 1.4% on Friday, influenced by market sentiment [1] Group 4 - As of the latest report, spot gold is priced at $3,368.87 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 2.4%, while the Bloomberg Dollar Index has slightly risen by 0.1% [2] - The market is focused on upcoming U.S. employment data, with an unexpected rise in initial jobless claims reinforcing expectations for at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [2] - The current precious metals rally reflects a blend of safe-haven demand and industrial recovery, with silver and platinum needing to maintain key price levels while monitoring ETF fund flows and economic data for sustainability of the upward trend [2]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in global risk aversion has led to a significant increase in the precious metals market, particularly gold and silver, with silver emerging as a new favorite among investors [1][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong and A-share markets have seen substantial gains in the gold and precious metals sector, with China Silver Group rising over 21% and several other companies hitting their daily price limits [2]. - As of the latest data, spot silver has reached over $36 per ounce, marking a 13-year high, while COMEX silver futures are reported at $36.19 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of 1.08% [5]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for silver is expected to reach record levels in 2024, contributing to a structural deficit in the silver market for the fourth consecutive year, driven by strong industrial demand, particularly in green energy sectors like solar power [8]. - The recent underperformance of U.S. economic data and the anticipation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have positively influenced the prices of silver and other industrially used precious metals [8]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - Global geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-Iran relations, have heightened the demand for safe-haven assets, further boosting precious metals [8]. - The recent escalation of trade tensions, particularly with the doubling of tariffs on steel and aluminum by former President Trump, has raised concerns about potential tariffs on other key metals, impacting market sentiment [8]. Group 4: Future Price Expectations - Analysts predict that if U.S. non-farm payroll data falls short of expectations, it could strengthen market bets on a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve, potentially leading to a significant rise in precious metal prices [9]. - Forecasts suggest that silver prices could reach $40 by the end of this year or early 2026, with ongoing central bank purchases and robust safe-haven demand driving this trend [9].

Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market saw a collective rise in gold and silver stocks, with companies like Fuda Alloy, Silver Industry, and Hunan Silver hitting the daily limit [1] - Hong Kong gold stocks also experienced significant gains, with China Silver Group leading with a 20% increase, followed by Zijin Mining and others [1] - Various gold ETFs, including Huaan Gold Stock ETF and Ping An Gold Stock ETF, reported increases of over 1% [1] Group 2: Silver Price Outlook - London silver prices reached $36.066, the highest since February 2012, with a year-to-date increase of over 24% [2] - Bank of America predicts silver prices could reach $40 by the end of this year or early 2026, driven by both precious metal and industrial demand [2] - Industrial demand for silver is expected to hit a record in 2024, contributing to a structural deficit in the silver market for the fourth consecutive year [2] Group 3: Gold and Silver Market Dynamics - Ole Hansen from Saxo Bank noted that gold and silver are entering a breakthrough phase, supported by the macroeconomic environment [3] - Gold stocks tend to have higher elasticity compared to gold prices, often referred to as "gold price amplifiers," which can yield excess returns [3] - The geopolitical climate is increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with short-term risks from tariffs and uncertainties supporting gold prices [3] Group 4: Economic and Policy Influences - Huatai Securities highlighted the volatility in tariff policies under Trump, affecting market sentiment and making it difficult to establish a continuous trend [4] - The World Gold Council suggests re-evaluating the Basel Accord's treatment of gold as a high-quality liquid asset, indicating long-term investment opportunities in gold [4] Group 5: ETF Specifics - The Gold Stock ETF (Product Code: 159562) tracks the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index, with a recent five-day increase of 3.19% and a P/E ratio of 20.50 [6] - The latest share count for the ETF is 390 million, with a decrease of 5 million shares and a net outflow of 4.118 million yuan [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: Economic data weakness strengthens short - term hedging demand, Fed policy delays and debt risks provide medium - term support, and central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization set the long - term tone. Attention should be paid to the June FOMC meeting guidance, US debt ceiling progress, and geopolitical situation evolution [3]. - **Copper**: In the next 1 - 2 weeks with little change in macro and fundamentals, copper prices are likely to continue to fluctuate. The tariff policy negotiation between Europe and the US mainly impacts the stock market. Supply is stable, and demand depends on the impact of the tariff exemption period in mid - to late June. Copper prices are unlikely to fall significantly without a halt in the decline of LME inventory. There is no clear signal for funds to enter the market [14]. - **Zinc**: Fundamentally, supply will be loose in the second half of the year, but inventory is at a low level. The zinc ingot import window is temporarily closed. The increase in zinc concentrate imports is significant. Short - term zinc prices are expected to be weakly volatile with a slowly declining center of gravity, and the short - selling logic depends on zinc ingot inventory accumulation [34]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum supply is sufficient, demand is gradually weakening, and continuous inventory reduction is the short - term support for aluminum prices. For alumina, the Axis mine in Guinea is likely to remain shut down in the short term, and the market is concerned about future supply surplus. Alumina prices are under pressure as inventory reduction is approaching the end and price increases in some areas are slowing [45]. - **Nickel**: The nickel ore segment has support as the further decline space is limited. Nickel iron prices are slightly回调, stainless steel demand is weak, and some Indonesian producers have cut production. Sulfuric acid nickel prices are stabilizing, and nickel prices fluctuate with the non - ferrous sector. Attention should be paid to spot trading [67]. - **Tin**: The recent low - level hovering of tin prices is related to the resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State. The actual production may not resume until July - August, and tin prices have rebounded due to the shrinkage of actual production compared to expectations [82]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamentals are weak, but as prices fall, there is a higher probability of supply - side disturbances and short - covering. The futures market may fluctuate sharply [93]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industry is in the process of eliminating backward production capacity. Supply pressure increases as enterprise复产 expectations are realized, and demand may be reduced. Polysilicon fundamentals are weak [101]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price and Spread**: Showed SHFE and COMEX gold and silver prices, and the price differences between SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures and spot prices [4][5][7]. - **Relationship with Other Indicators**: Displayed the relationship between gold and US Treasury real interest rates, and the relationship between gold and the US dollar index [9]. - **Fund Holdings and Inventory**: Presented the long - term fund holdings of gold and silver and the inventory of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver [11][13]. Copper - **Futures Data**: Provided daily copper futures data including prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper [15]. - **Cash Data**: Gave daily copper spot data, including prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of different regions, as well as spot premium and discount data [20][22]. - **Import and Processing**: Included copper import profit and loss, copper concentrate TC, and copper refined - scrap price difference data [25][29]. - **Inventory**: Showed the inventory data of SHFE and LME copper and the seasonal inventory of Chinese cathode copper [13][32][33]. Zinc - **Price Data**: Provided zinc futures and spot prices, price differences between contracts, and premium and discount data [35][39]. - **Inventory**: Presented the inventory data of SHFE and LME zinc and related seasonal inventory data [41][43][44]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Price Data**: Showed the futures and spot prices of aluminum and alumina, price differences between contracts, and premium and discount data [46][49][55]. - **Inventory**: Provided the inventory data of SHFE and LME aluminum and alumina and related seasonal inventory data [63][64][65]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: Gave nickel futures prices, inventory, and spot average prices, as well as nickel ore prices and inventory data [68][72][74]. - **Downstream Profit**: Presented the profit data of downstream nickel products such as stainless steel and nickel sulfate [76][78]. Tin - **Futures and Spot Data**: Provided tin futures and spot prices, premium and discount data, and inventory data [83][87][89]. - **Related Index**: Showed the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) [88]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures and Spot Data**: Gave lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, price differences between contracts, and inventory data [93][96][99]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot and Futures Data**: Provided industrial silicon spot and futures prices, price differences between contracts, and basis data [101]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Showed the prices of downstream products such as polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [105][106][107]. - **Production and Inventory**: Presented production, inventory, and cost data of industrial silicon [113][116][119].

高盛：特朗普加码钢铝关税引发白银大涨 金十数据6月5日讯，特朗普政府宣布将钢铝关税从25%提高至50%之后，白银迎来了强势上涨。因为这 一消息令市场预期美国政府可能会对其他关键金属（如白银）采取类似贸易保护措施，从而推升对白银 的避险和替代性需求。高盛期货交易员Robert Quinn称，美国提升钢铝关税的消息引发了白银期货市场 显著的多头建仓。白银期货总持仓量激增28亿美元，为过去一年中最大的两日增幅。尽管EFP（期货与 现货价差）波动较大，但整体趋于升水，表明市场对近期现货紧张的预期增强。同时，白银价格的上涨 推动了程序化趋势追踪资金入场做多。此外，期权市场也表现出看涨姿态：三个月隐含波动率飙升； 25-Delta认沽-认购偏度（Put-Call Skew）回落，表明投资者更愿意持有看涨期权；5 Delta与25 Delta认购 期权比例反弹，显示对极端上涨的押注增加。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have increased by 27% this year, while the US dollar index has decreased by 9%, indicating a strong negative correlation between the two assets [1][7]. Group 1: Historical Context - The negative correlation between gold and the US dollar index has reached -96% this year, significantly higher than the average of -39% since 1990 [2]. - Since 1990, there have only been seven instances of a negative correlation exceeding -95%, making the current situation historically rare [3]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - During periods of extreme negative correlation, the average rolling return for gold over five months has been 8%, compared to an overall average of 3% since 1990 [6]. - In the seven historical periods of strong negative correlation, five showed a pattern of a declining dollar and rising gold prices, supported by factors such as ETF inflows, safe-haven demand, and central bank purchases [6]. Group 3: Future Projections - Morgan Stanley predicts that the US dollar index will fall to 91 by Q2 2026, which could lead to gold prices reaching $3,800 per ounce, surpassing the previous target of $3,500 [10]. - The current strong demand from central banks and ETF inflows is providing support for gold prices [7]. Group 4: Demand Structure - Despite the historical correlation suggesting gold price increases, such periods typically last for a short duration, with the longest being 44 days in 2007 [11]. - Recent trends indicate a slowdown in ETF inflows due to competition from other asset classes, and jewelry demand has dropped to its weakest level since 2020, necessitating observation of consumer adaptation to higher prices [11].

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 6 月 5 日 请阅读正文后的声明 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 美国 4 月份职位空缺数意外增加暗示美国就业市场短期仍存韧性，这增强美 联储按兵不动以继续评估关税政策对经济通胀冲击的信心，另市场也在关注评估 中美元首通话处理贸易问题的可能性，隔夜伦敦黄金回调至 3350 美元/盎司附近。 特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局进入乱纪元模式，黄金的避险需求得到极大提 振；目前看黄金波动性上升但中线上涨趋势保持良好，建议投资者继续持多头思 维以中低仓位参与交易，但工业需求压力下白银相对偏弱。本周关注美国贸易形 势 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market in June 2025 is experiencing multiple forces at play, with international gold prices showing resilience amid U.S. tariff policy adjustments and a declining dollar index, while central bank gold purchases reach historic highs, highlighting gold's strategic value as a crisis hedge [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - International gold prices fluctuate between $3,200 and $3,400 per ounce, influenced by U.S. tariff policies and a falling dollar index [1] - Global central bank gold purchases in Q1 2025 hit a record high, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold reserves for 18 consecutive months [1] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts are rising ahead of the Federal Reserve's June 15 meeting, potentially lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold if real interest rates turn negative [1] - Geopolitical tensions, including escalating conflicts in the Middle East and the Taiwan Strait, alongside the "global tariff war" policy of the Trump administration, are enhancing gold's safe-haven appeal [1] Group 2: Investment Platform Insights - Jinseng Precious Metals, as an AA-class member of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, leverages compliance and technological innovation to create a comprehensive investment advantage [2] - The platform's proprietary trading system enables millisecond order execution and supports automated trading needs, ensuring smooth transactions even during market volatility [2] - Security measures include a bank-grade segregated account system and a rapid fund transfer mechanism to mitigate risks of fund misappropriation [2] Group 3: Demand and Supply Trends - Global gold demand increased by 12% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with Chinese investment in gold bars and coins surging by 48% quarter-on-quarter [4] - The correlation between gold and A-shares has dropped from 0.74 (2002-2022) to 0.05 (2022-2025), while the negative correlation with 10-year government bonds has risen to -0.94, indicating gold's effectiveness in hedging against asset portfolio risks during stock and bond market volatility [4] Group 4: Service Differentiation - Jinseng Precious Metals offers a streamlined "one-step account opening" process, allowing account activation within 10 minutes and providing competitive spreads and zero commission policies [5] - The platform employs AI and big data analytics for personalized risk management, with alerts triggered during significant market volatility to prevent unexpected liquidations [5] - A dedicated 24/7 customer service team provides timely responses and market analysis guidance, alongside regular online investment seminars to enhance investor skills [6] Group 5: Investment Strategy Recommendations - In the current economic climate, gold's value as a "hard currency" is being redefined, with Jinseng Precious Metals positioned to help investors navigate market cycles through technological and service innovations [7] - Short-term trading strategies suggest monitoring support at $3,200 per ounce and resistance at $3,400 per ounce for potential high-low trading opportunities [7] - Long-term investment strategies may include dollar-cost averaging through regular accumulation plans linked to Au9999 prices, suitable for financial planning needs [7] - For investors holding stocks or cryptocurrencies, utilizing gold ETFs or London gold contracts for hedging against volatility is recommended [7]