（长江有色金属网cjys.cn研发团队) 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 铅市场正呈现"供应收缩"与"需求分化"并存的紧平衡格局。供应端，原生铅受原料紧张与集中检修影 响，产量边际下滑；再生铅则因废电瓶到货不畅、利润低迷而普遍减产，整体供应呈收缩态势。需求 端，市场出现结构性分化：汽车起动电池受益于冬季替换与备货需求，形成稳健支撑；而电动自行车等 传统消费步入淡季，且出口持续疲软，对整体需求形成拖累。产业链各环节传导不畅：上游矿端偏紧压 制中游冶炼开工，下游则按需采购、态度谨慎。在此背景下，铅价下方存在供应收紧带来的成本支撑， 但上行空间受制于需求的结构性疲软，预计短期维持震荡运行，价格方向取决于"供应减量"与"淡季需 求"二者的博弈强度。 今日走势预测： 宏观面情绪转暖，铅市基本面冬歇减产叠加转型调整，供给收缩显韧性，终端需求分化明显，预计短期 内铅价震荡修复反弹。 【ccmn.cn铅期货市场】隔周伦铅收跌，开盘报1957美元/吨，高点报1965.5美元，低点报1951.5美元， 尾盘收于1960美元，下跌1美元；成交量4806手。国内夜盘沪期铅弱势震荡，尾盘小幅收跌，主力合约 沪铅2601收报16 ...

Group 1 - The market experienced a slight increase on December 19, with the non-ferrous metals sector leading the gains, including copper, aluminum, and rare earths, with Yun Aluminum rising over 60% [1] - The Industrial Non-Ferrous ETF (560860) saw a trading volume exceeding 3.1 billion, surpassing the total from the previous day, indicating active trading with frequent premiums in the market [1] - The Industrial Non-Ferrous ETF has attracted significant capital, with over 5.8 billion raised in the last 10 days, over 11 billion in the last 20 days, and over 28 billion in the last 60 days, bringing its latest scale to 69.88 billion [1] Group 2 - Internationally, U.S. inflation showed unexpected easing, with the November core CPI rising by 2.6%, the lowest since 2021, providing the Federal Reserve with substantial room to consider interest rate cuts [3] - LME metal futures generally rose, with LME copper increasing by 41 USD to 11,778 USD/ton and LME aluminum rising by 10 USD to 2,916 USD/ton [3] - In the rare earth sector, Chinese authorities have communicated policies to exporters, with some exporters meeting the basic requirements for applying for general licenses, indicating a potential increase in exports [3] Group 3 - According to Guotai Junan Securities, copper is expected to see dual positive catalysts from its financial and commodity attributes, with increased demand and inventory pressures due to insufficient supply [3] - Aluminum is anticipated to break out of its three-year price range due to strong demand and low inventory, entering a phase of significant upward movement driven by demand catalysts [4] - The Industrial Non-Ferrous ETF closely tracks the CSI Industrial Non-Ferrous Metals Theme Index, covering leading strategic resources such as copper, aluminum, and rare earths, providing opportunities for investors to capitalize on cyclical and policy-driven benefits [4]

市场解读： 新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同 其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。 责任编辑：陈平 市场解读： 12月19日，黄金作为全球投资者眼中的避险之王，在2025年末的金融市场中再度上演了一出惊心动魄的 过山车行情。周四（12月18日），金价一度飙升至4374美元/盎司的近两个月高点，却在短时间内回吐 涨幅，收盘时勉强守住阵地，收报4332.31美元/盎司。这一波动并非孤立事件，而是深受美国最新消费 者物价指数（CPI）数据影响的产物。低于预期的通胀数据一方面刺激了美联储降息预期，推动美债收 益率下滑，为金价提供了短暂的上涨动力；另一方面，却削弱了黄金作为通胀对冲工具的吸引力，导致 多头获利了结。结合白银创下历史新高和钯金触及三年峰值等贵金属市场动态，这场金价波动揭示出全 球经济复苏中的不确定性，为投资者提供了审视黄金未来走势的绝佳窗口。 黄金技术分析： 本周黄金在多头趋势中，随时会出现调整空间，经过这四天的波动，大家也都看到了，周一出现强势上 涨，周二小幅调整，周三震荡上行，周四强势刷新高点再大跌， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are influenced by U.S. inflation data and geopolitical uncertainties, with current prices fluctuating around $4,321.99 per ounce, reflecting a slight decline of 0.22% [1][2] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, significantly lower than the expected 3.1%, suggesting easing inflation pressures which could support the Federal Reserve's accommodative monetary policy [1][2] - The report on CPI data has been criticized for its reliability due to data collection issues caused by a 43-day government shutdown, leading to significant gaps and biases in the data [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Venezuela, continue to drive some investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset, while industrial and long-term investment demand remains robust, limiting price adjustments [2] - Goldman Sachs projects that gold prices could rise by 14% to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, indicating a potential upward trend despite short-term weaknesses [2] - Analysts suggest that while short-term indicators may show weakness, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, with a focus on monitoring Federal Reserve actions, data revisions, and political nominations [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that international gold prices have retreated below $4,350, continuing a consolidation trend due to profit-taking and a reduction in long positions, rather than significant selling pressure [1] - The macroeconomic perspective shows that mid-term support factors for gold prices remain solid, with recent U.S. inflation data significantly below market expectations, enhancing the outlook for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly the escalating tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, continue to drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 2 - Technically, gold maintains a strong bullish structure, remaining above key moving averages with higher lows and a well-defined upward trend [3] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the midline, indicating that bullish sentiment remains dominant, while the Bollinger Bands suggest potential for further price expansion [4] - Key short-term resistance is identified at $4,350, with a potential breakthrough leading to a retest of the historical high of $4,381 and a challenge towards the $4,400 level [4] Group 3 - Important short-term support is at $4,300, with a potential decline to $4,270 if this level is breached; stronger support is located around the $4,240 area, which corresponds to the mid-term moving average [5]

上交易日周四(12月18日)：国际黄金震荡十字收跌，再度收取反弹见顶形态，并也维持在趋势线阻力下 方，暗示后市仍有回落走低调整的风险，但目前日图走势仍处于短期均线及上升趋势中，周图也处于5- 10周均线上方，基本面也处于看涨前景中，故此，如有回撤，下方关注关键支撑位置，也是入场看涨的 机会。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4337.99美元/盎司，亚欧盘时段先行维持震荡下移模式，延续至美盘时 段，走势频率及幅度开始加大，先是走低22点半时段录得日内低点4308.66美元，之后又迅速反弹，连 续回升，于次日0点时段录日内高点4374.14美元，之后又回落收复涨幅，并陷入4322-4340美元区间内 持续盘整，最终收于4332.42美元，日振幅65.48美元，收跌5.57美元，跌幅0.13%。 影响上，日内走势受到阻力压制，以及美元指数走强而先行震荡偏弱走盘，到美盘时段，受到美国11月 CPI整体数据的降低，提升了次年初的降息预期，利好金价走强，但由于周初请的低于预期及前值，和 阻力的获利了结而一度跳水录得日内低点； 不过美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特：美联储仍有很大降息空间。再度提升金价多头，使其反弹攀 升录得日 ...

周五亚洲时段早盘，纽元/美元货币对迎来小幅上行，汇价触及0.5775附近。 对汇市而言，这种预期直接转化为美元的抛售压力，美元兑纽元的走软，客观上为纽元/美元货币对的上行提供了助力。当前，交易员普遍在等待周五晚些 时候密歇根大学12月消费者信心指数的公布，这份数据将为后续美元走势和美联储政策预期提供更多参考依据。 新西兰本土经济的积极表现，也为纽元提供了短期支撑。 最新数据显示，新西兰经济在第三季度（Q3）实现1.1%的国内生产总值（GDP）增长，这一表现远超市场预期，且扭转了第二季度（Q2）修订后1.0%的萎 缩态势。经济复苏势头的显现，让市场对新西兰经济前景的信心有所提振，这种信心传导至汇市，对纽元兑美元的汇率形成了阶段性支撑。 从历史数据来看，新西兰经济基本面的强弱往往直接影响纽元的市场表现，此次强劲的GDP数据无疑是近期纽元的重要利好因素。 但纽元的上行势头并非毫无阻碍，中国经济的疲软迹象正在形成潜在压制。作为新西兰最大的贸易伙伴，中国经济的波动对新西兰出口贸易乃至纽元汇率有 着直接影响。本周早些时候国家统计局发布的数据显示，11月份中国零售额同比增长1.3%，较10月份的2.9%大幅回落，且显著低于 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the volatility in the gold market following the release of the US CPI data, which showed a significant decrease in inflation, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The US November CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected increase of 3.1%, while the core CPI rose by 2.6%, also below the previous value and market expectations of 3% [1] - The market anticipates a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve, with expectations for continued interest rate cuts into 2026 being reinforced by the recent inflation data [1] Group 2 - The European Central Bank decided to maintain interest rates at its recent meeting, marking the fourth consecutive meeting where no changes were made [1] - The market is closely watching the actions of the Bank of Japan, with expectations of a dovish stance being fully priced in [1] - Despite the current supportive environment for gold prices, caution is advised regarding the potential for gold to quickly break through previous historical highs [1]

中辉有色观点 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | | I | 100 10 | 2 | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美国数据利于宽松，英国继续降息，欧洲央行保持不变，短期市场流动性风险偏好 | 黄金 | | | 长线持有 | | 较好，世界央行三季度买黄金再创新高。黄金中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续 | | ★ | | 存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银短期故事越来越多、短期投机资金大量涌入，长期来看市场押注降息持续、供 | 白银 | | | 长线持有 | ★★ | 需缺口连续 5 年持续，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期做多逻辑不变。短期金 | | 银比价大幅快速降低，盘面进入超买区间，谨防高波动风险 | | | | 美通胀不及预期，美联储 | | 1 月降息预期增加，美国虹吸全球铜库存，国内 2026 年铜 | | 铜 | | | | 长线持有 | ★ | 精矿 TC 长协谈判焦灼，铜易涨难跌，风物宜放长量，建议铜多单继续持有，回调仍 是布局良机，中长期对铜依旧看好。 | | 海外锌库存持续累库，锌精矿 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a bearish trend in silver trading, with current prices showing a decline from the opening value [1] - The silver TD opened at 15420 CNY/kg and is currently trading at 15117 CNY/kg, reflecting a decrease of 2.24% [1] - The highest and lowest trading points for silver TD today were 15499 CNY/kg and 15034 CNY/kg, respectively [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 increased by 2.7% year-on-year, marking the lowest level since July and falling below the market expectation of 3.1% [2] - The core inflation rate, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021, also below the expected 3.0% [2] - The CPI data supports the dovish faction within the Federal Reserve, which advocates for further interest rate cuts, likely benefiting precious metals like silver while negatively impacting the U.S. dollar [2] Group 3 - The daily chart indicates that silver TD experienced a slight increase yesterday, but the upward momentum has weakened, leading to a downward trend today [3] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the hourly chart shows a neutral to bearish state, while the DMI indicates a potential rebound signal [3] - Key support levels for silver TD are identified between 14500 and 15000, with resistance levels between 15400 and 16000 [3]