这一转变与美联储近期的谨慎立场形成呼应。上周美联储决议全票通过维持利率在4.25%-4.50%区间不变，政策声明强调"通胀与失业率上行风险加剧"。主 席鲍威尔在记者会上重申，特朗普政府的关税政策不会干扰美联储独立性，当前利率水平将保持至经济前景明晰。 BK资产管理公司宏观策略师鲍里斯·施罗斯伯格分析称，经贸谈判进展与劳动力市场韧性降低了美国经济急剧放缓的可能性，美联储年内宽松力度或弱于市 场预期。他预计，若消费支出保持稳定，出口复苏将进一步支撑二季度GDP增速。 在中美日内瓦经贸会谈释放积极信号后，全球金融市场掀起乐观浪潮。美元指数强势攀升，黄金价格大幅回落，折射出市场避险情绪显著降温。这一转变不 仅为美国经济"软着陆"预期注入强心剂，更让美联储的降息路径再添变数——政策制定者或因贸易风险缓和而获得更多观望空间。 根据央视新闻披露的会谈成果，中美双方达成历史性关税削减协议：美方取消对华商品加征关税的91%，中方同步撤销反制关税;美方暂停24%的"对等关 税"计划，中方亦采取对等措施。这场波及近6000亿美元贸易额的关税争端，曾导致全球供应链紊乱与经济衰退担忧，如今随着双方重启高层对话，贸易壁 垒大幅消解。 市 ...

中美贸易紧张局势的缓和，如同一场及时雨，浇灭了市场此前的诸多担忧。消息一经公布，华尔街大行 与利率市场交易员迅速调整策略，大幅降低对美联储年内降息的押注。从利率互换合约的数据变化中， 我们能清晰看到这一趋势：美联储今年降息幅度预计从之前市场押注的 75 个基点，显著下降至约 55 个 基点；而交易员对首次降息时间的预期，也从原本较为接近的时间点，大幅延后至 9 月份，年内降息次 数更是被压缩到仅有两次。 这一系列预期的调整，在美债市场引发了强烈震动。对货币政策极度敏感的两年期美债收益率，周一一 度最高攀升 12 个基点，重新突破 4% 大关。收益率的上升与降息确定性的下降，恰似一对 "孪生兄 弟"，反映出美债市场看涨押注的进一步减弱。究其原因，此次关税下调被市场视为对经济的有力支 持。随着经济前景的预期改善，资金开始流向风险资产领域，本周初美股等风险资产的大幅反弹，更是 直接削弱了美债的吸引力，使得美债市场的热度明显降温。 回顾过去几周，市场对美联储降息的预期本就处于不断变化之中。自美联储上周发表 5 月议息会议声 明，主席鲍威尔主张采取观望态度，以评估关税调整对通胀和经济增长的影响后，市场的降息押注便开 启 ...

Group 1 - U.S. stock markets experienced a significant rally, with the Dow Jones rising over 1100 points, marking a new high since March. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also reached their highest closing levels since early March, driven by positive news regarding U.S.-China trade relations [2] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index surged by 5.40%, indicating a strong performance among popular Chinese stocks. The market's reaction suggests that it may have already priced in the benefits of the U.S.-China joint statement [2] - The S&P 500 index has risen over 8% since mid-June, while the Nasdaq has increased by more than 12%, reflecting optimistic expectations regarding trade tensions [2] Group 2 - U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10-year yield increasing by 9.05 basis points to 4.4729%. This rise is attributed to improved market sentiment regarding trade tensions following U.S.-China negotiations [3] - The dollar index (DXY) increased by 1.27% to 101.61, indicating a stronger dollar amid rising Treasury yields and a shift away from safe-haven assets like the euro and yen [3] Group 3 - Major U.S. tech stocks saw substantial gains, with Amazon up over 8%, Tesla up over 6.7%, and Meta up over 7.9%. Analysts suggest that the reduction in tariffs could be a "best-case scenario" for U.S. tech stocks, potentially leading to new highs in the market [5] - The market sentiment is bolstered by expectations of significant tariff reductions in the coming months, which could enhance profit margins for companies reliant on Chinese goods [5] Group 4 - The gold market experienced a sharp decline, with spot gold prices falling below $3200 per ounce. Analysts attribute this drop to reduced demand for safe-haven assets as U.S.-China tensions ease [7] - The decline in gold prices is also linked to expectations of further interest rate cuts by central banks, which may increase gold exposure in the future [7] Group 5 - Consumer sectors, including footwear, apparel, and department stores, saw significant gains in the U.S. stock market, driven by improved sentiment from U.S.-China trade discussions. Retailers are expected to benefit from lower import costs, enhancing their profit margins [8] - The easing of tariffs is anticipated to alleviate inventory pressures for smaller retailers, leading to a more optimistic outlook for the industry [8] Group 6 - President Trump signed an executive order aimed at reducing drug prices, requiring pharmaceutical companies to align their prices with those in other countries. This order poses challenges for implementation and sets ambitious price reduction targets [9] - Apple is considering raising the prices of its upcoming iPhone models, which could be influenced by the additional costs incurred from tariffs, estimated at around $900 million for the current quarter [10]

Group 1 - Wall Street bets on the easing of US-China trade tensions, signaling an end to the comprehensive tariff war [2][5] - The S&P 500 index surged by 3.3%, and the Nasdaq 100 index returned to a bull market, led by large tech stocks [2] - Safe-haven assets declined, with gold dropping over $90, and the dollar rising more than 1%, marking its largest single-day gain since Trump's election victory [2] Group 2 - The easing of tariffs between the US and China exceeded expectations, establishing a framework for continued discussions, which is what the stock market hopes for [6] - Investors are now focused on whether temporary solutions can evolve into lasting agreements, indicating a shift in sentiment towards risk assets [6] - The temporary pause in trade tensions provides US companies with more time to adapt and plan for contingencies [6] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley strategists noted that while investor sentiment towards the US stock market is improving, it is premature to sound the alarm [6] - The firm identified four factors necessary for a sustained rally, with progress made on two: optimism around a trade agreement with China and stable earnings revisions [6] - Upcoming economic data, including inflation, retail sales, and earnings reports, will be crucial in maintaining market momentum [6]

新华财经纽约5月12日电（记者刘亚南）由于中美贸易紧张缓解改善美国经济增长前景并推动美联储降 息预期降温，12日美元兑一揽子货币全面走高，美元指数在隔夜市场大幅上涨，当日维持窄幅盘整，尾 盘时美元指数暴涨。 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天上涨1.45%，在汇市尾市收于101.788。 中美两国10日至11日在瑞士日内瓦举行中美经贸高层会谈，在经贸领域达成一系列重要共识，同意大幅 降低双边关税水平。 Monex美国公司说，瑞士法郎和日元等避险货币大幅下跌，日元在G10国家货币中跌幅最大，对美元跌 幅一度接近2%。 富国银行分析师表示，中美经贸协议支持该行认为美元在近期将走强的观点，美联储在降息方面行动迟 缓也为此提供支撑。 截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1089美元，低于前一交易日的1.1259美元；1英镑兑换1.3180美元，低 于前一交易日的1.3315美元。 1美元兑换148.34日元，高于前一交易日的145.27日元；1美元兑换0.8457瑞士法郎，高于前一交易日的 0.8311瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3994加元，高于前一交易日的1.3930加元；1美元兑换9.8166瑞典克朗，高 于前一交易 ...

金十数据5月13日讯，高盛将其预期的美联储下一次降息的时间调整至12月（此前预期为7月），该行分 析师表示："鉴于情况发展以及上个月金融环境显著宽松，我们将美国2025年第四季度的经济增长年率 预测上调0.5个百分点至1%，并将未来12个月出现经济衰退的可能性降至35%。同时，我们已下调核心 个人消费支出（PCE）通胀路径预期，预计其峰值为3.6%（此前预期为3.8%）。" 高盛推后美联储降息预期至年底 下调美国衰退可能性 ...

中美经贸高层会谈 5 月 10 日至 11 日在瑞士日内瓦举行。中美 经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰当地时间 11 日晚在出席中 方代表团举行的新闻发布会时表示，此次中美经贸高层会谈坦诚、 深入、具有建设性，达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展。避险情绪 减弱，欧美股市上涨，贵金属转为高位震荡略偏空的走势。 5 月议息会议之后，市场对美联储降息的预期再度走弱，鲍威 尔在讲话中明确提出通胀上行风险和经济下行风险，在 5 月议息会 议和鲍威尔讲话之后，市场对美联储降息的预期再度推迟，近期美 联储官员讲话，依然对降息偏谨慎，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示， 美国贸易政策正在增加经济下行风险，高不确定性下维持通胀预期 稳定至为关键。美联储巴尔金指出，并非所有企业都能通过涨价消 化关税成本。美联储博斯蒂克称，在不确定性增加之际调整利率并 非审慎之举，降息预期减弱，短期利空贵金属。 美国一季度 GDP 年化季环比初值录得-0.3%，低于市场预期的 0.3%，较上季度的 2.4%大幅回落，为 2022 年一季度以来首次转负。 美国 4 月份就业增长强劲，失业率保持稳定，这表明特朗普贸易政 策的不确定性尚未对招聘计划产生重大影响。美 ...

Group 1 - The core outcome of the US-China trade negotiations includes a phased reduction of tariffs, with the first adjustments affecting agricultural products and medical devices, resulting in a tariff reduction of 30%-50% [2][3] - A supply chain stability mechanism will be established in key areas such as semiconductors and new energy, with China committing to increase imports of US agricultural products and the US agreeing to ease some medical device export restrictions [3] - China will further open its financial and education services sectors, while the US will allow Chinese companies to participate in certain 5G infrastructure projects [4] Group 2 - Trump's recent executive order aims to reduce prescription drug prices by 30%-80% and implement a "most favored nation" policy, which may lead to significant volatility in the healthcare sector [5] - The easing of US-China trade tensions has diminished gold's safe-haven appeal, compounded by a rebound in the US dollar index above 101, which has pressured gold prices [6] - Global central banks have been net buyers of gold for the 16th consecutive year, with expectations that gold purchases will exceed 1,200 tons by 2025, driven by major buyers like China, India, and Turkey [8]

【白银期货行情表现】 美联储观察：美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为82.7%，降息25个基点的概率为17.3%。美联储7月维持 利率不变的概率为40.8%，累计降息25个基点的概率为50.7%，累计降息50个基点的概率为8.7%。当前 市场押注美联储今年将在7月、10月、12月各降息1次。 ①印巴仅停火数小时再现零星冲突，虽相互指控但局势趋缓。宣布停火后，印控克什米尔地区再次传出 爆炸声，据悉部分地区采取停电措施，印巴互称击落对方无人机。印度军方称，打算对（巴方）反复的 行为作出回应。 普京提议俄乌双方15日在土耳其伊斯坦布尔无条件重启直接谈判、泽连斯基表示将在土耳其等候普京。 乌外长表示乌方准备无条件停火至少30天。 【机构观点】 银河期货：中美关税战再次升级 白银短期仍将弱势 继美英达成初步的贸易协议以来，中美之间的谈判也出现进展，市场风险情绪持续好转，当前投资者静 待即将公布的联合声明以评估其具体影响。另外，地缘冲突方面尽管波折不断但当前总体处于缓和的趋 势之中。整体来看，关税谈判出现了比较乐观的信号，美国经济将受到何种实质性影响需持续观察，短 期内贵金属前期由避险带来的溢价或有一定调整空间。 5月12日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate futures have further reduced expectations for rate cuts, leading to a decline in U.S. 10-year Treasury futures by 9 points [1] Group 1 - The reduction in rate cut expectations indicates a shift in market sentiment regarding future monetary policy [1] - The decline in 10-year Treasury futures suggests a potential increase in yields, reflecting investor reactions to the updated outlook on interest rates [1]