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申万宏源证券首席经济学家赵伟:2026年,聚焦“顺周期”新叙事与资金“再平衡”
赵伟宏观探索· 2026-02-20 16:02
恭贺新春 2026年既是"十五五"的启幕之年,更是经济转型与制度改革全面发力的关键节点。2026年,经济将步入 非典型"复苏"状态,名义GDP修复过程中带动企业盈利改善;由于供需两端的助力,在行业间、企业间分 化明显,结构性特征依然会非常突出。 "反内卷"与"扩内需"将成为打破循环阻滞的核心抓手。 一方面,政策通过"反内卷"遏制低价竞争,修复 企业受损利润表,推动PPI转正与盈利回升;另一方面,政策突出"投资于人",依托民生保障改革与服务 业开放,或将持续打开服务消费增长空间。为增强内需动能,财政政策仍将靠前发力,加大化债力度以缓 解对投资资金的"挤出效应",确保固定资产投资,尤其是设备更新领域及数字基建与能源转型等方向投资 稳步修复,激发经济内生动力。 短期来看,2026年A股有望在"顺周期"新叙事下迎来资金"再平衡"的延续。伴随名义GDP修复与资产回报 率预期改善, 资金有望从低利率、高波动的债市向权益市场流动,推动资产价格重估。 尽管外部贸易形 势仍存在不确定性,但国内政策工具箱储备充足、出口结构持续优化,经济发展仍具韧性。资本市场将不 仅反映经济量的增长,更将定价质的提升与盈利的实质性改善,A股有望在 ...
2026年核心投资主线是什么?多家公募发声
证券时报· 2026-02-20 15:19
Core Viewpoint - The public fund industry remains optimistic about the economic fundamentals and market trends, highlighting structural opportunities in A-shares driven by multiple favorable factors, particularly in technology growth, energy transition, and consumer recovery [1]. Economic Fundamentals - Economic fundamentals are expected to continue improving, with a solid foundation and resilience in China's economy. The central economic work conference emphasizes "seeking progress while maintaining stability" and aims for stable growth and reasonable price recovery, leading to a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [3][4]. - Corporate profit growth is anticipated to stabilize, with ongoing breakthroughs in technological self-reliance and ample liquidity supporting a rational upward revaluation of Chinese assets. A-share valuations are still within a reasonable range, and an increase in dividends is expected to enhance shareholder returns [3]. Capital Market Dynamics - The influx of long-term capital is a core factor for the steady rise of the capital market. The market is expected to exhibit reduced volatility and structural differentiation, with funds concentrating on high-quality assets [7]. - The investor structure is shifting towards long-term and institutional investors, enhancing overall market stability. The "national team" is increasingly engaging in systematic long-term allocations, acting as a stabilizing force for the market [7][8]. Sector-Specific Opportunities - Investment opportunities are emerging in specific sectors, with a focus on technology growth, energy transition, and consumer recovery. The market style is expected to become more balanced, with notable sector rotation and structural rebalancing [10]. - Key areas of interest include: - Chemical and non-ferrous sectors showing positive changes in fundamentals, indicating a long-term upward trend [11]. - The banking sector is viewed as systematically undervalued, with certain quality enterprises offering stable growth attributes [11]. - Non-bank financial sectors with improving ROE trends are also expected to gain market attention [12]. - The Hong Kong stock market is seen as an opportunity for valuation recovery, liquidity improvement, and profit growth, becoming an essential part of risk diversification and income generation for residents [12]. Investment Themes - The investment focus for 2026 includes emerging technology growth and traditional industries, with an emphasis on high-growth sectors, relatively undervalued assets, and areas benefiting from policy dividends [13]. - Specific directions include: - Continued emphasis on technology growth, particularly in AI applications and semiconductors [13]. - Opportunities in cyclical recovery against the backdrop of "anti-involution" and service consumption driving economic growth [13]. - The importance of companies with real competitiveness and growth potential in technology self-reliance, energy transition, and consumer recovery [13].
不止反向团圆!华强北春节酒店爆满,背后藏着创业热、全球热
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2026-02-20 14:41
Core Insights - In 2026, hotel bookings in Shenzhen during the Spring Festival ranked among the top three in the country, with a year-on-year increase of 48% [1] - The Huaqiangbei commercial area emerged as the highest region for hotel bookings in Shenzhen, with a 35% increase in hotel occupancy and a 100% rise in foreign guest stays during the holiday [1][3] Group 1: Consumption Boom - The "reverse reunion" trend significantly boosted hotel occupancy rates in Huaqiangbei, with a 56% year-on-year increase in hotel stays for guests aged 60 and above, who often brought local specialties to visit their children [4] - The average hotel occupancy rate in the Huaqiangbei area reached 80% during the Spring Festival, a 28 percentage point increase compared to the previous year [4] - Huaqiangbei experienced a surge in sales of technology products, with overall sales increasing by over 30% in the two months leading up to the festival, and AI glasses sales skyrocketing by 70% to 80% [5] Group 2: Entrepreneurial Activity - Many entrepreneurs chose to stay in Shenzhen during the Spring Festival, utilizing hotels as temporary offices to maintain innovation and production schedules [6] - The proportion of AI products in Huaqiangbei increased from 12% in 2023 to 41% in 2026, reflecting the growth of the local OPC innovation ecosystem [6] - The flexible combination of accommodation and office space in hotels has injected continuous vitality into the hotel industry in Huaqiangbei [6] Group 3: Global Engagement - Huaqiangbei attracted a daily average of 750,000 visitors, including over 7,000 foreign merchants from 183 countries, thanks to policies like the 240-hour visa-free transit [7] - During the Spring Festival, Huaqiangbei's logistics capabilities were highlighted, with over 3 million packages shipped daily, 40% of which were sent globally, surpassing a total value of 100 billion yuan [8] - The area hosted cultural exchange activities that combined traditional Chinese New Year celebrations with technology consumption, enhancing the experience for foreign guests [8]
数字新广货全球出圈,三七互娱让广府文化“赛博过年”
南方财经记者庞成广州报道 春节期间,越来越多的年轻人选择了一种全新的过年方式——在游戏里"赛博过年"。 当玩家沉浸在《叫我大掌柜》解锁全运数字体验,或许并未意识到,游戏已经从单纯的娱乐变成了数字化"年俗载体"。 《叫我大掌柜》是一款全球发行的古风模拟经营游戏,已圈粉海内外亿万玩家。作为扎根广州的数字文化企业,三七互娱以这 款游戏为载体,将北宋国风底蕴与广府烟火气深度交融,打造出"数字新广货",让广府文化借数字载体走出广州、走向世界。 深入分析这家公司,不难发现,三七互娱正在从"买量战"转向"技术战",通过前瞻布局AI技术挖出了一条很深的护城河。当一 些游戏公司仍把AI当"美工"时,三七互娱已构建起覆盖AI全产业链的战略布局,提前锁定AI原生游戏的基础设施,将战场拉到 技术的深水区,用技术专利和数据闭环构建以AI为核心竞争力的全新生态体系。 据介绍,三七互娱积极布局AI领域,一方面围绕自主研发的行业大模型"小七大模型",构建了40余种AI能力,打造了"小七"智 能体平台;另一方面持续布局硬科技赛道,构建了"算力基础设施—大模型算法—AI应用"的完整产业链。 得益于像三七互娱一样的数字文化企业,一批"数字新广货" ...
登上企业家之夜舞台22天后,智谱市值翻了3倍,突破3200亿港元,发生了什么?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-20 10:51
新浪科技讯 2月20日晚间消息,马年港股开市首日,大模型公司智谱股价大幅度上涨,收报725港元/股,上涨 42.72%,市值突破3232亿港元。 值得注意的是,今年1月29日,在由新浪财经、第一财经联合主办的"为中国经济点赞——企业家之夜"活动上,智谱作 为国内AI大模型企业代表,其公司董事长刘德兵出席并 获选2025十大年度经济人物。 当晚,刘德兵发表荣誉感言时表示,让机器像人一样思考,是智谱团队创立第一天起就选择的方向,是智谱人持之以 恒的愿景目标。 "智谱的Z是字母表中的最后一个字,代表了终极境地。我们希望在AGI的探索历程上能够走到智能的终极境地,感谢 团队的专业耐心和长期主义。"他说。 彼时,智谱1月29日收盘股价为227港元/股,公司市值刚突破1000亿元不久。距离大会结束仅22日(含春节假期),智 谱股价已经上涨超498港元/股,上涨超3.19倍,公司市值也已突破3232亿港元。 这一段时间内,哪些关键节点及标志性事件使得资本市场对于智谱的信心进一步急剧提升? 消息面上,进入2月,全球模型服务平台OpenRouter上线搜索排名第一的神秘匿名模型"Pony Alpha",因其强大的编码 能力及针 ...
安永中国主席、大中华区首席执行官陈凯:立足中国服务中国 数智力量共赴新程
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2026-02-20 09:37
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the significant adjustments in the global political and economic landscape, highlighting the impact of tariff disputes and geopolitical risks on global economic growth prospects [1] - It notes the breakthroughs in the global technology industry, particularly in quantum computing, artificial intelligence (AI), green energy, and robotics, positioning technological innovation as a core driver of industrial upgrade and economic growth [1] - Chinese enterprises are navigating multiple challenges, focusing on governance, transformation, investment, and international expansion, contributing to stable economic growth and maintaining a high growth rate among major global economies [1] Group 1: Company Performance - In 2025, the company provided audit services to 156 A-share listed companies and 412 Hong Kong-listed companies, ranking first in comprehensive scores among Chinese CPA firms for two consecutive years [4] - The company assisted 46 enterprises in IPO listings in mainland China and Hong Kong, leading the global accounting firms in this area, including notable IPOs like Huadian New Energy and Moore Threads [4] - The company developed a series of digital audit tools, enhancing audit quality and efficiency by significantly reducing communication, time, and information acquisition costs [4] Group 2: AI Strategy - The company accelerated its "All in AI" strategy in 2025, launching the industry's first intelligent Q&A products and a new AI risk control platform, integrating AI technology deeply into various industries [6] - The company has responded to national strategic needs, providing comprehensive services for Chinese enterprises going global, serving over 3,800 clients in the past three years across 90% of Belt and Road countries [6] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company aims to continue its commitment to innovation and technology, enhancing its professional service capabilities to support the high-quality development of China's capital market and modernization efforts [8] - It plans to increase investments in information technology, integrating AI with professional knowledge and industry experience to assist Chinese enterprises in their internationalization and sustainable growth [8]
问界M9“手到福来”燃动春晚!赛力斯引领中国汽车高端化新征程
Sou Hu Wang· 2026-02-20 08:05
Core Viewpoint - The performance of the AITO M9 at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala highlights the vibrant growth and new developments in China's new energy vehicle industry [1][3][6]. Group 1: Brand Presentation - The interactive "Turn Fortune" gesture during the performance engaged the audience and created a festive atmosphere, showcasing the theme of reunion [3]. - The visual spectacle of "Fortune" and "AITO Mountains and Rivers" illuminated the night sky, making it one of the most memorable highlights of the gala [3]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The event successfully embedded the brand image of Seres in the hearts of millions, demonstrating the remarkable achievements of China's new energy vehicle sector to the world [6]. - Seres aims to continue leveraging new productive forces as an engine for development, focusing on high-end and intelligent growth to lead the industry onto a broader stage [6]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - Seres adheres to the "software-defined vehicle" technology route and "user-defined vehicle" market orientation, fostering new productive forces and deepening core technologies in electrification and intelligence [7]. - Over the past five years, Seres has implemented a series of innovative technological achievements, including the Seres Cube Technology Platform 2.0 and Seres Super Range Extender, establishing a differentiated competitive advantage [7].
预见金马|永赢基金芦特尔:以心致诚,以行致远
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-20 03:05
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the growth and future potential of the Chinese capital market, particularly in the context of public funds, which are seen as crucial for efficient resource allocation and supporting high-quality development in the economy [5][11]. Group 1: Industry Overview - In 2025, the total scale of public funds in China exceeded 37 trillion yuan, with equity public funds surpassing 11 trillion yuan, indicating robust growth in the asset management sector [5][6]. - The capital market is expected to maintain a stable yet progressive development tone in 2026, with public funds playing a vital role in promoting efficient resource allocation and enhancing the vitality of quality enterprises [11]. Group 2: Company Strategy and Performance - The company has achieved a profit of 39.955 billion yuan for investors over the past year, with a cumulative service client base exceeding 54.39 million [8]. - The company has diversified its product offerings, launching its first QDII product and bond ETF, which aim to connect investors with global opportunities and provide innovative tools for precise bond allocation [7][10]. Group 3: Research and Development - The company has developed a comprehensive investment research framework, referred to as the "four-wheel drive" model, which focuses on creating value through a robust investment research system that can withstand market fluctuations [9]. - The company is committed to enhancing its quantitative and financial technology capabilities, having developed integrated investment management systems that have received industry recognition [10]. Group 4: Social Responsibility - The company has engaged in social responsibility initiatives, including support for local schools and disaster relief efforts, reflecting its commitment to community welfare [11].
西部利得基金董事长何方:坚守初心担使命,笃行致远启新程
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2026-02-20 02:57
(原标题:西部利得基金董事长何方:坚守初心担使命,笃行致远启新程) 展望2026年,我国经济向好态势持续巩固,人工智能加速向深度应用与产业融合演进,为高质量发展注 入源源不断的新动能。资本市场有望在支持科技创新和新质生产力发展中发挥更为重要的作用,投融资 功能将更加协调,资金供给结构持续优化,内在稳定性显著增强,长期投资价值进一步凸显。 新的一年,西部利得基金将坚守初心使命、聚焦主责主业,以践行金融"五篇大文章"为核心抓手,切实 提升投资者获得感与服务体验,更好地服务实体经济高质量发展与居民多元化理财需求。 公司将持续锻造投研核心竞争力,强化系统思维与创新思维,持续优化迭代投研体系与决策机制,坚定 践行长期投资、价值投资、责任投资理念,在投资研究与决策中贯穿长周期视角,重视企业可持续发展 能力与社会价值创造,不断提升估值定价专业能力,更好发挥价值发现与市场引领作用,更好服务科技 创新与新质生产力发展。 公司将持续优化适配投资者需求的多样化产品与服务体系,大力发展权益类基金,持续加大产品创新研 发力度,提升服务中长期资金的专业能力;将投资者教育与服务做深、做细、做持久,积极探索大数 据、人工智能等前沿技术的场景 ...
永赢基金芦特尔:以心致诚,以行致远
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-20 02:43
十二年前,作为一家银行系公司,我们从固收业务起步,这份禀赋强化了我们对风险的深刻敬畏、对稳健的不懈追求,也让我们发展初期拥有了坚实 的"底座"。我们异常珍视,但始终未停止向前的脚步,我们深知,只有丰富多元的产品才是服务客户、承载信任的真正载体。 这种战略定力,也贯穿于我们近年的每一步发展印记中。过去三年,我们在红利与高股息板块崭露头角,但与此同时,我们从未停止对科技、周期等领域 的持续深耕与力量储备。正是基于长期积淀与逆市布局,我们才能从2024年起,敏锐地辨识出新一轮科技创新周期的曙光。 大家好,我是永赢基金总经理芦特尔。 岁聿云暮,新元肇启。值此辞旧迎新的美好时刻,我谨代表永赢基金,向始终信任我们的广大持有人,向一路同行的合作伙伴,向一年来辛勤付出的全体 永赢人,致以最诚挚的感谢和最美好的新春祝福! 2025年,是国家"十四五"规划圆满收官之年,也是中国新质生产力蓬勃发展之年。资本市场与时代脉搏同频共振,这一年,我国公募基金总规模超37万亿 元,权益类公募基金突破11万亿元①。公募基金在服务实体经济、助推新质生产力发展中彰显担当,也在助力居民财富配置优化、提升投资者获得感的道 路上步履坚实。 置身于中国基 ...