Summary of the Conference Call on the Swine Farming Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the swine farming industry, particularly the changes in slaughter volumes and pricing dynamics post-Chinese New Year [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Increase in Slaughter Volumes**: - Post-New Year, slaughter volumes have increased due to protein product substitution, fresh-frozen conversion, and higher slaughter concentration [1][3]. - Large-scale designated slaughterhouses benefit from the concentration in farming and the development of the industry chain, leading to significant growth in slaughter volumes, while small slaughter points are declining [1][4]. 2. **Weight Management in Livestock**: - Farming enterprises are increasing the weight at which pigs are sold to reduce costs and improve barn utilization, responding to market demand for heavier pigs [1][5]. - Despite attempts to lower weights, the high demand for heavier pigs has led companies to maintain or even increase slaughter weights [5]. 3. **Policy Impacts on Pricing**: - Policies aimed at increasing pig prices have led large farming companies to gradually reduce slaughter volumes and weights, implementing bans on secondary fattening to reduce inventory [1][6]. - The effectiveness of these policies is still under observation, especially given the potential for speculative behavior among smaller farming groups [1][6]. 4. **Secondary Fattening Regulations**: - The secondary fattening ban aims to prevent disease spread and illegal quarantine practices, with some regions beginning to crack down on violations [1][7][8]. - However, loopholes remain, such as the sale of pigs without proper documentation, which complicates enforcement [8]. 5. **Mother Pig Production Control**: - Some farming companies are starting to control the production capacity of mother pigs, gradually reducing their numbers, although the execution of these policies is still being monitored [1][9]. 6. **Market Dynamics and Price Trends**: - The price trends for pigs in the second half of the year are closely linked to the timing of supply adjustments and slaughter weights [1][11]. - The expectation is for prices to be high but not excessively so, with potential losses in breeding profits if prices drop too low [11]. 7. **Investment Sentiment Among Secondary Fattening Groups**: - Secondary fattening groups are expanding their investments based on policy expectations, believing that future demand will drive prices up [1][12]. - However, the accumulation of inventory from this expansion may offset the supply reductions from larger farming companies [12]. 8. **Regional Control and Market Influence**: - Large farming groups in northern regions have shown significant control over prices, particularly following a reduction in mother pig numbers in social groups [1][14]. - The dynamics of supply and demand are shifting, with increased competition from other sources reducing reliance on single companies [14]. 9. **Challenges for Traditional Slaughter Enterprises**: - Head farming enterprises have made significant inroads into the slaughter business, creating pressure on traditional slaughter companies to adapt [1][20][21]. - The integration of farming and slaughtering operations is becoming more common, leading to reduced costs and improved competitiveness [21][22]. 10. **Emerging Trends in Farming Practices**: - The rise of mother pig leasing models is attributed to local policy restrictions, allowing larger farms to circumvent limitations and expand production [1][25]. Additional Important Insights - The overall weight of pigs being sold by leading farming groups is currently around 125 kg, with a downward trend expected as policies take effect [1][23]. - The average weight of pigs in secondary fattening varies by region, with northern areas showing higher weights compared to southern regions [1][24]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the swine farming industry, highlighting the interplay between market dynamics, policy impacts, and operational strategies within the sector.

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 06 月 09 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 升水修复，重新起航 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1：全国生猪出栏价 元/公斤 图2：样本屠宰场屠宰量 头 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，6 日生猪主力 2509 合约 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Swine Industry Trends Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the swine industry in China, focusing on the trends in pig prices and production dynamics for the second half of 2025 [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Current Slaughter and Weight Trends** - National slaughter volume has decreased from 460,000 to 410,000 heads in early June, with average weights maintained at 126-128 kg [2][3]. - A slight reduction in slaughter and consumption is expected in June, estimated at 3%-4% [1][3]. 2. **Price Expectations** - The price of pigs is anticipated to remain weak in June, with projections indicating fluctuations around 7-8 yuan per kg [1][7]. - If prices drop below 7 yuan per kg, large producers are likely to enter the market aggressively [1][4]. 3. **Impact of Policy Recommendations** - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has suggested reducing pig weights and limiting sow production, but the immediate impact on prices is expected to be limited [3][5]. - Despite recommendations, many producers are reluctant to lower weights due to current profitability [3][5]. 4. **Future Market Dynamics** - A potential surge in secondary fattening is expected around July-August 2025, driven by profit motives and historical trends [5][6]. - The influence of large farming groups on northern pig prices is increasing, which may stabilize price fluctuations [7]. 5. **Cost Pressures** - Rising feed costs due to stable corn prices and poor wheat harvests are anticipated to exert pressure on the swine industry [11][12]. - The cost of raising pigs is expected to increase in the latter half of the year, influenced by raw material prices [12]. 6. **Consumer Behavior and Market Demand** - Mid-range consumer demand appears to be better than expected, with a 35% increase in slaughter volume from January to May attributed to various factors including the shift from frozen to fresh products [10][11]. - The impact of seasonal factors, such as weather and agricultural cycles, is also noted as influencing market dynamics [2][13]. Additional Important Insights - The high prices of piglets are primarily due to pricing strategies and significant deliveries in the first quarter, with expectations of a price drop post-June [8]. - The overall production efficiency in the swine industry has reached a plateau, indicating that future competition will focus more on pricing and volume rather than efficiency improvements [10]. - The execution of policies regarding secondary fattening is inconsistent, with market prices being the primary driver for producer decisions [4][14]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the swine industry as discussed in the conference call, highlighting the interplay between market dynamics, policy impacts, and cost pressures.

根据行业分析师的研究，二次育肥会人为拉长出栏时间，造成阶段性出栏量差异较大，导致出现"助涨 助跌"现象。有头部猪企停止销售二次育肥商品猪 端午节后第一个交易日，A股生猪板块延续涨势，牧原股份连续两个交易日累计上涨近10%，神农集 团、巨星农牧同期上涨超10% 端午节后的第一个交易日，A股生猪板块延续良好势头，牧原股份（002714）(002714.SZ)、神农集团 （605296）(605296.SH)和巨星农牧（603477）(603477.SH)等表现不错。这与猪价稳定的预期有关，猪 价稳定预期又与二次育肥的最新消息有关——一些头部猪企暂停对二次育肥客户出售商品猪。 6月3日上午，《每日经济新闻》记者从牧原股份、神农集团、新希望(000876.SZ)等多家猪企了解到， 至少有两家头部猪企暂停了这一业务，且对商品猪只开屠宰类检疫票。这意味着只能用作屠宰的商品猪 无法进入二次育肥被再次饲养。 所谓二次育肥，是指养殖户购进已达正常出栏体重的生猪，继续育肥至350斤或以上再出售，以赚取价 差和增重利润的短期养殖模式。 生猪板块之所以上涨，和二次育肥的消息有关。有市场消息称，行业接有关部门通知要求控制出栏猪体 重并 ...

生猪：又到布局时，一线专家怎么看 20250602 摘要 如何看待政策执行过程中的潜在影响？ 春节后猪价坚挺，前五个月盈利优于去年同期，主要因冻品库存低，春 节后有库存积压，且官方及第三方数据可能高估了去年基础产能和新生 指数数量，从而低估了今年上半年供给。 下半年生猪供给或高于去年，但增幅预计小于 10%，低于期货市场悲观 预期。去年下半年均价 18 元/公斤，目前 14.5 元/公斤，降幅近 20%。 若按期货 13.5 元/公斤均价，降幅超 20%过于悲观。 多部门联合调控生猪产能，旨在提振价格，修复行业盈利，降低负债风 险。上市公司整体负债已从高峰 4,500 多亿降至 3,000 多亿，但负债率 仍较高。 若能有效执行降重政策至 125 斤，将显著提升养殖效益，减少 3,400 万 头出栏量。低端企业已响应降重销售，下半年价格预期或更乐观，但需 观察具体执行情况。 当前低利率和信贷宽松环境为行业提供融资便利，但货币政策转向将带 来高债务风险。农业部和央行希望提升物价水平，猪肉价格对 CPI 影响 较大，需减少同比降幅。 Q&A 当前生猪行业的情况如何，包括投资机会？ 去年下半年，农业部在官方媒体上对 ...

Macro Insights - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will announce several major financial policies, with key speeches from the Governor of the People's Bank of China and the Deputy Governor [3] Bond Market Alerts - Jilin Credit Financing Guarantee Investment Group disclosed three major litigation cases involving financial loan contract disputes, indicating that the company is operating normally and its financial status is good [5] - Zhaoyang Urban Construction Investment Co., Ltd. is listed as an executor in two cases due to loan contract disputes, with liabilities totaling 65 million yuan [6][14] - China Huayang Economic and Trade Group failed to pay due on bonds, leading to substantial default, with the bankruptcy administrator announcing criminal charges against the issuer [8] - Gansu Energy Chemical's coal mine experienced a flooding accident, resulting in three fatalities, raising concerns about safety management and profitability due to falling coal prices [9] - Xi'an New District's project revenue significantly underperformed expectations, with actual income of 8.1 million yuan against a forecast of 260.2 million yuan, although it has not adversely affected the company's debt repayment ability [10] Stock Market Alerts - The China Securities Index Company announced regular adjustments to the CSI 300 and other indices, with several companies being added to the indices [16] - BYD's management refuted claims that it is akin to "Evergrande in the auto industry," asserting that mainstream Chinese automakers have better asset-liability situations compared to foreign counterparts [19] - ST Dongshi is under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for suspected information disclosure violations [20] - ST Tianyu's actual controller is under investigation for fund misappropriation, but it is not expected to significantly impact the company's operations [21] - ST Jinglan is also under investigation for information disclosure violations, with no major impact on daily operations anticipated [22] - ST Yazhen warned of potential stock price volatility after a significant increase of 93.14% in its stock price [23] Industry Alerts - Major pig farming companies have received notifications to suspend the expansion of breeding sows and control the weight of pigs for sale, indicating regulatory tightening in the industry [41] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reported a 10.8% year-on-year decline in profits for internet enterprises from January to April, despite a 1.5% increase in internet business revenue [42]

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 05 月 30 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 升水修复，重新起航 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，29 日生猪主力 2509 合约平开后探底回升震荡走高，尾盘收阳， 最高 13690 元/吨，最低 13380 元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of live pigs is increasing, and the demand is boosted in the short - term due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, leading to a short - term small rebound in spot prices. However, in the medium and long term, the supply - demand situation remains loose, and the prices are expected to be weak. The futures contracts are at a discount to the spot prices and are likely to continue to be weak due to the off - season demand, loose supply - demand, and the expected出栏 of second - fattened pigs [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 28th, the main live pig contract 2509 opened slightly higher, then rose and fell, fluctuating downward and closing in the red. The highest price was 13,605 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,510 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,560 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 1,209 lots to 164,599 lots [8] - **Spot Market**: On the 28th, the national average price of external ternary pigs was 14.51 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - **Demand Side**: The current price difference between fat and standard pigs is inverted, and the pen utilization rate is relatively high. The enthusiasm for second - fattening replenishment has decreased, and most are in a wait - and - see state. With the rising temperature, the terminal demand has weakened. But in the short - term, affected by the Dragon Boat Festival holiday stocking, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have increased, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased. On May 28th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 151,200 heads, an increase of 3,800 heads from the previous day and 10,000 heads from a week ago [9] - **Supply Side**: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned sales volume in May was 23.65 million heads, a 1.98% increase from the actual出栏 volume in April. At the end of the month, the breeding side was more active in出栏. With the successive出栏 of previously second - fattened pigs, the出栏 weight remained high [9] 3.2. Industry News - From May 19th - 23rd, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 627 yuan/head, down 3 yuan/head from the previous week [12] - As of May 23rd, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising pig was 138 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 31 yuan/head; the average profit per pig raised by purchasing piglets was 93 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/head [12][13] 3.3. Data Overview - From May 19th - 23rd, the national average出栏 weight was 129.38 kg, a decrease of 0.33 kg from the previous week, a week - on - week decline of 0.25%, a month - on - month increase of 0.34%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.91% [22] - From May 19th - 23rd, the slaughter volume of the slaughtering sample was 1.5964 million heads, a decrease of 500 from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03%; the average daily slaughter volume of the daily slaughter sample was 144,347 heads, a decrease of 3,194 heads from the previous week, with an average daily decrease of 2.16% [22] - As of May 23rd, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - raising was 13.09 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week. The cost of fattening pigs by purchasing piglets was affected by both feed prices and piglet prices. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125kg and then出栏 was 15.06 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil: SPPOMA's significant decline in the first 25 - day production increase and the increase in the first 25 - day exports announced by shipping agencies will limit the downside of the market. However, the domestic Dalian palm oil futures market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend due to the weak performance of Malaysian palm oil and the increase in domestic port inventories [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals of domestic soybean oil are deteriorating. Spot soybean oil will continue to be weaker than futures, and the basis quote is expected to decline. Although CBOT soybean oil is supported by the US biodiesel policy and the promotion of green energy, it is also affected by the possible tariff increase on EU goods by Trump and the decline of CBOT soybeans [1]. Meal - The two - meal futures in the domestic market are expected to maintain a volatile structure. The spring sowing of US soybeans is progressing smoothly, and the supply pressure from Brazil is still being realized. The abundant arrival of soybeans in the domestic market will suppress the cost of domestic soybean meal, but the low inventory of oil mills and the low basis limit the downside [2]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs has rebounded slightly. Although the improvement in supply - demand is limited, the reduction in the supply of breeding groups at the end of the month and the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking demand have contributed to the rebound. The 09 contract has also rebounded, and the market is expected to neither decline significantly nor have strong upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the support around 13,500 [4][5]. Corn - In the short term, the corn market will maintain a narrow - range volatile trend. The supply and price are affected by traders' selling rhythm. The downstream deep - processing industry's continuous losses and the substitution expectation of wheat put pressure on corn. In the long term, the tightening supply, reduced imports and substitution, and increased breeding demand will support the upward movement of corn prices [7]. Sugar - The supply outlook for the 25/26 sugar season is optimistic, with smooth harvesting in Brazil's central - southern region and a good start of the monsoon season in Thailand. The raw sugar is expected to be weak and volatile, with a risk of falling below 17 cents per pound. The domestic sugar price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend due to the future import rhythm and the increasing long - term supply [10]. Cotton - The downstream demand for cotton has resilience, and the basis of cotton spot is firm, providing strong support for cotton prices. However, the weak long - term demand expectation limits the upward movement of cotton prices. In the short term, the domestic cotton market is expected to fluctuate within a range [12]. Eggs - The national egg supply is relatively sufficient, which has a negative impact on egg prices. The demand is expected to first decrease and then increase, and the egg price is expected to first fall and then rise slightly this week [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Prices and Changes**: For soybeans, the spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.61% to 8,120 yuan, and the futures price of Y2509 decreased by 0.53% to 7,530 yuan. For palm oil, the spot price in Guangdong decreased by 0.93% to 8,520 yuan, and the futures price of P2509 decreased by 0.43% to 7,920 yuan. For rapeseed oil, the spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 9,610 yuan, and the futures price of 01509 decreased by 0.44% to 9,026 yuan [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - palm oil spread and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread have changed to varying degrees. For example, the 2509 soybean - palm oil spread decreased by 7.76% to - 250 yuan [1]. Meal - **Prices and Changes**: The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal decreased by 0.68% to 2,940 yuan, and the futures price of M2509 decreased by 0.07% to 2,950 yuan. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal increased by 0.40% to 2,510 yuan, and the futures price of RM2509 increased by 0.39% to 2,566 yuan [2]. - **Spreads**: The 09 - 01 spread of soybean meal decreased by 1.96% to - 52 yuan, and the 09 - 01 spread of rapeseed meal increased by 6.85% to 234 yuan [2]. Live Pigs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The futures prices of the main contract and the 2507 and 2509 contracts of live pigs have all increased. The spot prices in various regions have also rebounded to varying degrees, with the largest increase of 550 yuan in Liaoning [4]. - **Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 1.42%, the weekly white - strip price decreased by 100%, and the self - breeding and外购 breeding profits decreased by 40.23% and 133.32% respectively [4]. Corn - **Prices and Changes**: The futures price of corn 2507 decreased by 0.39% to 2,318 yuan, and the futures price of corn starch 2507 decreased by 0.38% to 2,653 yuan. The basis of corn and corn starch has changed, with the corn basis increasing by 128.57% [7]. - **Indicators**: The number of remaining vehicles in Shandong's deep - processing industry in the morning increased by 15.67%, and the import profit of corn increased by 2.80% [7]. Sugar - **Prices and Changes**: The futures price of sugar 2601 increased by 0.11%, and the futures price of sugar 2509 increased by 0.03%. The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming remained stable or decreased slightly [10]. - **Industry Indicators**: The national cumulative sugar production and sales have increased, and the industrial inventory has decreased. The cumulative national and Guangxi sugar sales rates have increased [10]. Cotton - **Prices and Changes**: The futures price of cotton 2509 decreased by 0.19%, and the futures price of cotton 2601 decreased by 0.19%. The spot prices in Xinjiang and other regions have changed slightly [12]. - **Industry Indicators**: The commercial and industrial inventories of cotton have decreased, and the cotton outbound shipment volume has increased by 22.6%. The export volume of textile yarns, fabrics and products, and clothing and accessories has changed to varying degrees [12]. Eggs - **Prices and Changes**: The futures prices of the 09 and 06 contracts of eggs have increased slightly. The egg - laying hen chick price remained unchanged, and the淘汰 chicken price decreased by 1.92% [13]. - **Indicators**: The basis of eggs increased by 42.40%, and the breeding profit increased by 7.32% [13].

短期来看，支撑和压力并存，猪价或先扬后抑。一方面，当前猪价跌至14元／千克附近，二次育肥热情 再起，有望推动猪价在14元／千克附近止跌整理。另一方面，当前全国肥猪与标猪价格几乎持平，对应 二次育肥增重利润受限，预计二次育肥增重幅度有限，未来一段时间二次育肥群体滚动出栏或导致供给 压力后移。卓创资讯数据显示，截至5月23日，全国肥猪与标猪价差为0.01元／千克。截至5月22日当 周，生猪出栏均重为126.55千克，2024年同期为124.77千克，2023年同期为121.64千克，2022年同期为 121.27千克。从体重来看，阶段性供给压力仍在累积，若肥猪与标猪价格出现倒挂，供给压力有望进一 步释放。 中期来看，仔猪数量对应年中供给仍较充裕，三季度生猪价格强弱取决于二季度养殖端能否完成主动减 重。据了解，今年1—3月全国仔猪数量仍处于相对高位，对应未来5~6个月生猪供给仍较充裕。市场关 注焦点在于7—9月猪价的具体波动区间。目前来看，若5—6月体重压力能够得到释放，7—9月猪价或迎 来波段上涨行情，但整体供给仍较充裕，向上空间不可盲目乐观，可关注15~15.5元／千克的压力；反 之，若5—6月体重仍处于高位， ...