Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market expected a price correction after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. There was a large amount of second - fattening pig sales before the festival, and the narrowing and inversion of the price difference of 300 - jin fat pigs recently confirmed the sales. The volume of second - fattening pigs waiting to enter the market after the festival is large, so the callback space after the festival is limited, and the secondary inventory accumulation rhythm is expected to be quickly realized. The May and July contracts have already priced in the expected spot price correction in advance. During the holiday, the spot price was strong, and the logic of narrowing the basis may reappear [3]. - The capacity data in March is expected to be good, and the far - month contracts lack upward driving forces, being more likely to fall than to rise. The positive spreads of 5 - 9, 7 - 9, or 7 - 11 have allocation space [3]. - The actual impact of the Sino - US tariff issue is limited, but the sentiment is strong. Pay attention to setting stop - profit and stop - loss levels. The short - term support level for the LH2505 contract is 12,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,000 yuan/ton [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Spot Prices - The Henan spot price is 14,600 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 50 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 14,400 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 15,280 yuan/ton, with no year - on - year change [1]. Futures Prices - The price of the生猪2505 contract is 13,270 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 40 yuan/ton; the price of the生猪2507 contract is 13,480 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 20 yuan/ton; the price of the生猪2509 contract is 13,860 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 20 yuan/ton [1]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the生猪2505 contract is 25,524 lots, an increase of 5,287 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 48,224 lots, a decrease of 1,388 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the生猪2507 contract is 5,733 lots, an increase of 1,463 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 33,498 lots, a decrease of 270 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the生猪2509 contract is 7,232 lots, an increase of 605 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 44,406 lots, an increase of 243 lots from the previous day [1]. Price Spreads - The basis of the生猪2505 contract is 1,330 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 10 yuan/ton; the basis of the生猪2507 contract is 1,120 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 30 yuan/ton; the basis of the生猪2509 contract is 740 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 70 yuan/ton [1]. - The 5 - 7 spread of live pigs is - 210 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 20 yuan/ton; the 7 - 9 spread of live pigs is - 380 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 40 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with the value range of [- 2, 2]. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Short - term prices of various products in the feed and breeding industry have different trends, and long - term trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, production, and consumption seasons. Strategies for different varieties are given based on these trends [1][2][4][7][8] - There are both upward and downward pressures on the prices of different products, and investors need to pay attention to different influencing factors for each product [1][2][4][7][8] Summary by Directory 1. Live Pigs - **Price Situation**: On April 2, the spot price in Liaoning was 14.1 - 14.8 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Henan, it was 14.4 - 14.9 yuan/kg, also down 0.1 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was stable at 14.2 - 14.7 yuan/kg; and in Guangdong, it was stable at 15 - 15.6 yuan/kg [1] - **Short - term Outlook**: Supported by factors like industry profits, low - position entry of second - round fattening, and holiday demand, but also pressured by cautious second - round fattening at high prices, increased large - pig slaughter, and limited terminal consumption. Prices will oscillate around 14 yuan/kg [1] - **Long - term Outlook**: From March to September 2024, supply will increase due to the continuous slow growth of fertile sows from May to November 2024 and improved production performance. The supply pressure in the second quarter is large, and the risk of price decline intensifies. The long - term price is also under pressure [1] - **Strategy**: In the short term, supply pressure is postponed. Adopt a strategy of shorting on rebounds. For contracts 05, 07, and 09, pay attention to their respective pressure levels and sell out - of - the - money call options [1] 2. Eggs - **Price Situation**: On April 2, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.05 yuan/jin, and in Beijing, it was 3.16 yuan/jin, both stable compared to the previous day [2] - **Short - term Outlook**: Supply pressure is large due to the increase in laying hens, but the increase in old - hen culling and holiday - driven consumption have improved the supply - demand pattern [2] - **Long - term Outlook**: High - profit - driven high - level replenishment from December 2024 to February 2025 will lead to an increase in new - laying hens in the second quarter, and the supply increase in the second half of the year is difficult to reverse [2] - **Strategy**: For contract 05, wait and see; for contracts 08 and 09, take a bearish view, and pay attention to feed and culling factors [2] 3. Oils Palm Oil - **Price Situation**: On April 1, the national palm oil price rose by 30 - 50 yuan/ton to 9610 - 9850 yuan/ton [4] - **Short - term Outlook**: Malaysian palm oil production increased in March, exports increased slightly, and the inventory may have reached an inflection point. It is expected to oscillate between 4200 - 4600. The domestic supply - demand situation is in a tight balance, and the inventory has decreased to 36.87 tons [4] - **Long - term Outlook**: After April, the production in the origin will increase, and the demand will weaken after the festival. The price may decline from the high level [4] - **Strategy**: Contracts 05 of palm oil are in a strong - oscillating trend in the short term. Pay attention to the 9500 pressure level and be cautious about chasing up [7] Soybean Oil - **Price Situation**: On April 1, the US soybean oil main contract rose 5.71% to 47.27 cents/pound. The domestic soybean oil price changed by 10 - 90 yuan/ton to 8150 - 8320 yuan/ton [3][4] - **Short - term Outlook**: Influenced by factors such as the potential increase in biodiesel blending, lower - than - expected US soybean planting area, and large - scale Brazilian soybean listing, the price will oscillate in a range [5] - **Long - term Outlook**: The supply pressure will be large from April to May, and the inventory reduction ability will be limited [5] - **Strategy**: Contract 05 of soybean oil runs in the 7700 - 8200 range in the short term. Adopt a range - trading strategy [7] Rapeseed Oil - **Price Situation**: On April 1, the domestic rapeseed oil price rose 90 yuan/ton to 9360 - 9680 yuan/ton [4] - **Short - term Outlook**: Affected by the tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil, the price is relatively strong [6] - **Long - term Outlook**: After the second quarter, due to factors such as reduced Canadian rapeseed planting area and inventory reduction, the price is expected to stop falling and rebound [6] - **Strategy**: Contracts 05 of rapeseed oil are in a strong - oscillating trend in the short term. Pay attention to the 9500 pressure level and be cautious about chasing up [7] 4. Soybean Meal - **Price Situation**: On April 1, the US soybean 05 contract rose 19.5 cents to 1034.25 cents/bushel, and the soybean meal 05 contract closed at 2804 yuan/ton [7] - **Short - term Outlook**: Affected by factors such as Brazilian soybean harvest pressure, domestic inventory reduction falling short of expectations, and increased supply in the future, the price trend is weak [7] - **Long - term Outlook**: Import cost increase and possible reduction in US soybean planting area will provide support for the price [7] - **Strategy**: Contracts 05 and 07 are weak in the short term, short on rallies; for m2509, build long positions at low prices [7] 5. Corn - **Price Situation**: On April 1, the new - corn purchase price at Jinzhou Port was 2160 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [8] - **Short - term Outlook**: There is selling pressure in the short term, but there is also support from factors such as trade - end price support and downstream replenishment demand [8] - **Long - term Outlook**: The supply - demand situation will tighten, but the price increase space is limited due to factors such as substitutes [8] - **Strategy**: Take a generally stable - to - bullish attitude. For contract 05, look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks; pay attention to 5 - 7 and 5 - 9 calendar spreads [9] 6. Today's Futures Market Overview - CBOT soybean active contract rose 18.75 cents to 1032.75 cents/bushel; soybean meal main contract fell 47 yuan/ton to 2804 yuan/ton; and other varieties also had corresponding price changes [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "positive" for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [5] Core Viewpoints - In February, the average price of live pigs decreased due to oversupply, while the price of piglets remained strong. The average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork were 36.21 CNY/kg, 16.00 CNY/kg, and 27.46 CNY/kg respectively, with month-on-month changes of 6.59%, -3.68%, and -1.57% [11][16] - The supply side is seeing a gradual recovery in post-holiday slaughtering, leading to an overall sufficient market supply. The demand side is experiencing a post-holiday decline, with a slow recovery in terminal demand and slaughtering operations [13][19] - The report anticipates that the pig price recovery in the coming months will rely on the entry of secondary fattening [13][21] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The market supply is generally sufficient, with a gradual return to normal slaughtering rates post-holiday. The average slaughtering rate in February was 20.24% [13][19] - Demand: Post-holiday demand is declining, with a slow recovery in terminal demand and slaughtering operations. The price difference between live pigs and pork is 4.53 CNY/kg, indicating weak consumer performance [13][19] Cost and Pricing Trends - The report highlights that the imposition of tariffs on certain imported agricultural products from the U.S. is expected to raise breeding costs. Tariffs include a 15% increase on wheat and corn, and a 10% increase on sorghum and soybeans [16][19] - The breeding cost for leading companies is crucial for maintaining profitability during periods of declining pig prices. Companies like Shennong Group and Wens Foodstuffs have managed to keep their breeding costs below 13 CNY/kg [33][34] Market Performance of Listed Companies - In February, the sales prices of major listed companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, Zhengbang Technology, and New Hope were 14.76 CNY/kg, 14.96 CNY/kg, 14.35 CNY/kg, and 14.64 CNY/kg respectively, showing a month-on-month decline of 5.53%, 5.27%, 6.67%, and 5.07% [24][25] - The total slaughter volume in February showed a significant decline, with companies like Wens Foodstuffs and Zhengbang Technology experiencing decreases of 10.39% and 21.12% respectively [25][30] Future Outlook - The report predicts that high-quality production capacity is likely to remain profitable in 2025. The industry index PB has slightly increased but remains at a low level. The report suggests that as consumption-boosting policies are implemented in 2025, leading breeding companies are expected to see valuation recovery [21][34]