Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. Core Views Oils and Fats - For palm oil, there is a risk of price decline and adjustment due to potential increases in production and inventory. In China, short - term prices may fluctuate after breaking through 8200 yuan, with a possibility of reaching 8300 yuan [1]. - For soybean oil, if the US proposal to extend the 45Z clean fuel tax credit policy is passed, the industrial use of soybean oil in bio - fuel production will rise significantly. In the short - term, there is an upward trend, but domestic inventory increase may drag down the market [1]. Sugar - Short - term raw sugar is expected to fluctuate between 17 - 20 cents per pound. The domestic sugar market has sufficient supply and strong sales. Sugar prices are expected to remain stable in the short - term, with a reference range of 5800 - 5950 yuan [3]. Cotton - The downstream cotton industry is gradually weakening, but the pressure on finished product inventory is still small. New cotton growth is good, and supply is expected to be abundant. Short - term cotton prices may fluctuate in a range, with attention on the 13500 - 13700 yuan per ton resistance level [4]. Eggs - The supply of eggs is generally sufficient, and demand is weak. Egg prices are expected to decline slightly and then stabilize this week [6]. Meal - Due to uncertainties in US biodiesel blending targets and abundant supply from Brazil, there is no significant positive support for the meal market. Domestic supply is recovering, and attention should be paid to the performance of soybean meal around 2900 yuan [9]. Corn - In the short - term, the corn market will trade steadily with a sideways trend. In the long - term, supply tightening and increased demand will support price increases. It is recommended to buy on dips during price corrections [11]. Pork - The spot price of pork is stable, and the supply - demand relationship has little change. Pig prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with attention on the performance of secondary fattening pig sales [15][16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Prices**: From February 15th to May 14th, the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all showed different degrees of decline, with the exception of some basis and spread changes [1]. - **Policies and Reports**: The US House of Representatives' proposed draft to extend the 45Z clean fuel tax credit policy may increase the industrial use of soybean oil. The latest USDA monthly report shows the proportion of US soybean oil industrial use in total demand [1]. Sugar - **Market Data**: Futures and spot prices of sugar showed different trends. The production and sales of sugar increased year - on - year, and the inventory decreased. The import of sugar increased significantly [3]. - **Industry News**: The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased in the second half of April, but the 25/26 sugar - cane crushing season is still expected to be a bumper harvest [3]. Cotton - **Market Data**: Futures and spot prices of cotton changed slightly. The commercial inventory decreased, and the industrial inventory remained stable. The export of textile products showed different trends [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The downstream industry is gradually weakening, and new cotton growth is good, with an expected increase in planting area [4]. Eggs - **Prices and Spreads**: Egg futures prices and related spreads changed slightly. Egg - laying chick prices remained stable, while the prices of culled chickens and feed - to - egg ratios increased slightly. The breeding profit improved [6]. Meal - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans showed different trends. Various spreads and oil - meal ratios also changed [9]. - **Industry Situation**: Uncertainty in US biodiesel policies and abundant supply from Brazil have put pressure on the meal market. Domestic supply is recovering, and demand is weak [9]. Corn - **Market Data**: Corn and corn starch futures and spot prices changed slightly. The basis, spreads, and trade profits showed different trends. The inventory and vehicle numbers at deep - processing plants also changed [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of corn is gradually concentrated in traders. The downstream deep - processing industry is loss - making, and the substitution of wheat limits price increases. In the long - term, supply tightening and increased demand will support prices [11]. Pork - **Market Data**: Futures prices of pork decreased, while the trading volume increased. Spot prices remained stable, and various indicators such as slaughter volume, piglet prices, and breeding profits changed slightly [15]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply - demand relationship of pork is stable, with pressure on fat pigs and weak demand. The 09 contract is driven by funds, but the upward and downward momentum is not strong [15][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the first half of May, the global oil market experienced significant events, and domestic oil prices first declined and then rebounded, with continued differentiation among varieties. The short - term domestic oil market will correct, constrained by factors such as the slump in international crude oil and US soybean oil prices and the expectation of improved supply. However, the macro - improvement brought about by the warming of Sino - US relations and the positive impact of the USDA May report limit the decline. In the medium - to - long term, the increase in the arrival volume of soybeans and palm oil in the second quarter will drag the overall oil market down, and it will stop falling and rebound in the third quarter due to factors such as the decrease in the sown area of new soybean and rapeseed crops in North America and possible weather speculation[1][2][5]. - For trading strategies, the short - term rebound of bean, palm, and rapeseed oil contracts for September delivery is limited. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up or short - sell after the rebound ends. For arbitrage, the general trend of the widening spread between bean - palm and rapeseed - palm oil contracts for September delivery remains unchanged, but the process of upward repair of the spread will not be smooth, and it is recommended to enter the market in a rolling manner on dips[3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Palm Oil - Short - term: The seasonal production increase season will drive the accumulation of inventory in the producing areas and open the window for domestic purchases. Under the simultaneous improvement of supply and demand at home and abroad, the palm oil contract for September delivery is likely to decline in the second quarter. However, factors such as the possible improvement in export demand after the price decline in the producing areas, the disturbance on the international crude oil and macro - sides will intensify the fluctuations during the decline[6]. - Malaysia: In April, Malaysia's palm oil production and demand both increased, but the production increase of 21.52% was much larger than the export increase of 9.62%, resulting in a continued rise in the ending inventory to 1870000 tons, higher than market expectations. In the next few months, the production is expected to increase, and the SSPOMA data shows that the production from May 1 - 10 increased by 22.31% month - on - month. After the price decline, export demand is expected to improve, and the strong purchasing willingness of major importing countries may slow down the inventory accumulation speed[7]. - Indonesia: In February, production decreased slightly month - on - month, but exports increased significantly, and the ending inventory dropped to 4140000 tons. From March to April, due to factors such as Ramadan, the rainy season, and the transfer of export demand from Malaysia, the supply was weak and demand was strong, and the inventory is expected to remain low. The precipitation in 2024 may affect the production recovery from May to July 2025, but the abundant precipitation from October to December 2024 is beneficial for the production increase in the third quarter of 2025. However, the B40 plan and the increase in palm oil exports may prevent smooth inventory accumulation[9]. - China: In April, the domestic palm oil market continued to be in a state of weak supply and demand, with inventory remaining below 400000 tons. After the price decline in late April, the import profit improved significantly, and a large number of new purchases were made from late April to early May. It is estimated that the arrival volume from May to July will be 228000, 228000, and 12000 tons respectively, and the inventory is expected to stop falling and rebound from May[13]. - Medium - to - long term: Until October 2025 is the traditional production increase season for palm oil. The continuous production increase will put pressure on prices in the second and third quarters. After that, as the producing areas enter the seasonal production decline season, prices will strengthen again[16]. Soybean Oil - Short - term: The domestic soybean oil fundamentals are still weak. Although factors such as the improvement of macro - sentiment, the positive impact of the USDA May report, and the favorable news of the US biodiesel policy stimulate a short - term rebound, the large - scale arrival of South American soybeans from May to July and the normal weather in the early sowing period of new US soybean crops limit the rebound height, and the overall trend is weak and volatile, with the domestic market weaker than the international market[17]. - South America: The 24/25 soybean harvest in South America is a foregone conclusion. The combined output of Brazil and Argentina is 218 million tons, an increase of 15.29 million tons year - on - year. The export data of soybeans and soybean products in 2025 have also increased significantly. The supply pressure in the second quarter is large, and the decline in the basis of Brazilian soybeans has weakened the cost support for domestic soybean oil[18]. - US: The USDA May report estimates that the sown area of new US soybean crops in the 25/26 season will decrease by 4.13% year - on - year, and the supply - demand situation will gradually change from loose to tight. However, it is still in the early sowing period, and there is uncertainty. In the short term, there is rainfall in the Midwest in the next 1 - 2 weeks, which is beneficial for sowing, and there is no opportunity for weather speculation[21]. - Policy: The future development of the US biofuel policy and Sino - US tariff issues needs attention. The market expects an increase in the biodiesel blending volume in 2026, but the actual blending target is uncertain. The extension of the 45Z clean fuel tax credit policy is also uncertain. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs has a limited impact on soybean purchases in the second quarter but may affect the market in the fourth quarter[22][24]. - China: The domestic soybean arrival volume from May to July is expected to reach about 10 million tons per month on average. The soybean oil inventory has stopped falling and rebounded to 654400 tons, and there is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation in the future[26]. - Medium - to - long term: In the third and fourth quarters, the selling pressure of Brazilian soybeans will gradually ease. Possible weather speculation in North America and the possible difficulty in importing US soybeans if the Sino - US trade dispute intensifies again will help the long - term soybean oil price to strengthen and raise the price center[28]. Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed oil contract for September delivery has been the strongest among the three oils. Due to China's additional 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal and the ongoing anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, the import volume of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in the long - term is expected to decline. Coupled with the tight supply - demand situation of old - crop rapeseed in Canada and the possible reduction in new - crop production, rapeseed oil is expected to maintain its strong position. However, without policy support, it is difficult for rapeseed oil to have an independent sharp rise in the second quarter when the overall trend of soybean and palm oil is weak[29]. - Abroad: The supply - demand situation of Canadian rapeseed in the 24/25 season is very tight, which has supported the continuous strengthening of the rapeseed oil price since late March. The production has decreased, while domestic consumption and exports have increased. The inventory - to - sales ratio has dropped significantly. The sown area of new - crop rapeseed in the 25/26 season is expected to decline, and there is a risk of drought in some areas, which may lead to weather speculation during the sowing period[30]. - China: From January to March, the continuous large - scale import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil and the sluggish consumption have led to inventory accumulation. As of May 9, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory was as high as 863900 tons. However, due to the additional tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and the anti - dumping investigation, the far - month rapeseed supply is expected to tighten, which will support the price of rapeseed oil in the third and fourth quarters[31].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil futures may fall due to potential increases in production and inventory, with short - term fluctuations in domestic prices. There's a chance of reaching 8300 yuan. US policy proposals may boost soybean oil demand, but domestic inventory increases could drag down prices [1]. Sugar - Short - term, raw sugar will fluctuate between 17 - 20 cents/pound. Domestic sugar prices are supported currently but may face limited upside due to expected import increases, with a forecast range of 5800 - 5950 yuan [3]. Cotton - Domestic cotton prices may oscillate in the short term. New cotton supply looks good, while downstream demand is slightly weak. Attention should be paid to the 13500 - 13700 yuan/ton pressure level [4]. Eggs - Abundant supply and general demand lead to a slightly tense supply - demand situation. Egg prices may decline slightly and then stabilize this week [6]. Meal - US soybean prices are pressured by biodiesel policy uncertainty and smooth sowing. Domestic supply is increasing, and the basis is under pressure. Attention should be paid to soybean meal performance around 2900 yuan [9]. Corn - In the short term, the corn market is stable with a sideways trend. In the long term, supply tightening and increased demand will support prices. Suggest buying on dips during corrections [11]. Pigs - Pig prices are expected to remain volatile. The 09 contract is driven by funds, with limited upside and downside potential. Attention should be paid to the second - fattening slaughter [15][16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: Soybean oil spot price in Jiangsu dropped 0.84%, palm oil in Guangdong fell 2.27%, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased 0.31%. Futures prices also declined, while some basis values changed [1]. - **Policy Impact**: US policy proposals may increase soybean oil demand in biofuel production [1]. Sugar - **Market Data**: Futures prices declined slightly, while some spot prices increased. Production and sales increased year - on - year, and inventory decreased [3]. - **Industry Outlook**: Brazil's sugar production was affected by rain, but the 25/26 season is expected to be a bumper harvest [3]. Cotton - **Price and Inventory**: Futures prices dropped slightly, and some spot prices rose. Commercial inventory decreased, and import volume declined [4]. - **Market Situation**: Downstream demand is weakening, and new cotton supply is promising [4]. Eggs - **Price and Profit**: Futures prices declined, and the basis increased. Egg - layer chick prices were stable, and breeding profits improved [6]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply is abundant, and demand is general [6]. Meal - **Price and Spread**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices changed, and various spreads also adjusted. US soybean prices are under pressure, and domestic supply is increasing [9]. - **Market Factors**: Uncertain US biodiesel policy and smooth sowing affect the market [9]. Corn - **Price and Inventory**: Corn and corn starch prices changed. Corn inventory increased slightly, and starch inventory was stable [11]. - **Market Trends**: Short - term stability and long - term upward trend due to supply - demand changes [11]. Pigs - **Price and Spread**: Futures prices declined, and the spread between 7 - 9 contracts decreased. Spot prices were stable, and some indicators changed [15]. - **Market Conditions**: Stable supply - demand and potential second - fattening slaughter [15][16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of palm oil in China is expected to improve, and the inventory may increase, leading to a gradual decline in prices [2] - The export prospects of US soybeans have improved, but the supply of domestic soybeans and soybean meal is expected to be sufficient in the second quarter, which will continue to put pressure on prices [2] - The overall price of edible oils has declined due to factors such as the weakening of the hype sentiment of US biodiesel and the increase in palm oil production and inventory [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Information - Brazil's Mato Grosso state achieved a record - high soybean yield in the 2024/2025 season, with an average yield of 66.3 bags per hectare, 14 bags higher than the recent average [2] - As the international palm oil price drops significantly, China's palm oil purchases have increased. It is expected that China will import 250,000 tons and 280,000 tons of palm oil in May and June respectively. Considering the compressed domestic consumption, the supply is expected to improve, inventory may rise, and prices will gradually weaken [2] - The weather in US soybean - producing areas is favorable for sowing. The USDA's supply - demand report is bullish, and the export prospects of US soybeans have improved. Domestically, the import of US soybeans is expected to increase, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to increase rapidly [2] Comment and Strategy - Edible oils showed a weak trend at night. The US 45Z clean fuel tax credit policy has been extended, but the hype sentiment of US biodiesel has weakened, and the price of US soybean oil has declined. The MPOB report shows that the production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil have exceeded expectations, and the overall price of edible oils has declined due to the drop in crude oil prices [2] - Protein meals fluctuated weakly at night. The weather in US soybean - producing areas is conducive to sowing. The USDA report is bullish, and the export prospects of US soybeans have improved. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal is expected to increase rapidly, and the sufficient supply in the second quarter will put pressure on prices [2] Market Data - **Domestic Futures Market**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil futures decreased, with declines of - 1.49%, - 1.66%, and - 3.15% respectively; the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures increased, with increases of 0.31% and 0.62% respectively; the price of peanut futures increased by 0.29% [1] - **International Futures Market**: The previous day's closing price of BMD palm oil futures increased by 2.82%, while the prices of CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal futures decreased by - 2.11%, - 5.52%, and - 1.47% respectively [1] - **Domestic Spot Market**: The spot prices of domestic soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil decreased, with declines ranging from - 1.33% to - 2.29%; the spot prices of soybean meal in Nantong and Dongguan decreased, while the spot prices of rapeseed meal in Nantong and Dongguan increased; the spot prices of peanuts remained unchanged [1] - **Import and Profit**: The import profit of Malaysian palm oil, US soybeans, and Brazilian soybeans decreased, while the import profit of Canadian crude rapeseed oil increased [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts for peanuts decreased, while the number of warehouse receipts for other varieties remained unchanged [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Views of the Report - The USDA report this month is bullish, boosting the soybean complex. The extension of the US 45Z clean - fuel tax credit policy benefits the US soybean oil, driving up the prices of the whole oil sector. However, the MPOB report shows that the production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil in April exceeded expectations, with the production increasing by 21.52% month - on - month, exports increasing by 9.62% month - on - month, and inventory increasing by 19.37% month - on - month. The palm oil market is under pressure due to the entry into the production - increasing season [2]. - For protein meals, the weather in US soybean - producing areas is favorable for sowing. The USDA report shows that US soybean production and ending stocks are lower than expected, and the improvement in Sino - US relations may increase US soybean exports. In China, the resumption of oil - mill operations has alleviated the supply shortage, and the sufficient supply of raw soybeans and soybean meal in the second quarter will put pressure on prices [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a. Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 7914, 8184, and 9438 respectively, with daily increases of 122, 230, and 64, and daily increase rates of 1.57%, 2.89%, and - 3.15% respectively. For protein meals, the previous day's closing price of soybean meal was 2914, up 28 (0.97%), and that of rapeseed meal was 2416, up 6 (0.25%). The previous day's closing price of peanuts was 8844, up 26 (0.29%) [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 are 54, 26, and 149 respectively, showing certain changes compared with the previous values. The current ratios and spreads like M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, and M - RM09 are - 49, 217, and 367 respectively, also different from the previous values [1]. b. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 3827 (Ringgit/ton), 1076 (cents/bushel), 52 (cents/pound), and 292 (dollars/ton) respectively. Their daily increases were 37, 1, 1, and - 2 respectively, with daily increase rates of 0.98%, 0.09%, 1.06%, and - 0.54% respectively [1]. c. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8290 and 8260 respectively, with increase rates of 1.59% and 1.60%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil are 8750 and 8800 respectively, with increase rates of 1.51% and 1.50%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil are 9460 and 9450 respectively, with an increase rate of 0.64%. For protein meals and peanuts, the spot prices of Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal are 3020 and 3090 respectively, with increase rates of 1.00% and 0.00%. The spot prices of Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal are 2430 and 2390 respectively, with increase rates of 0.41% and - 0.42%. The spot prices of Linyi and Anyang peanuts are 7600, with an increase rate of 0.00% [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis for various products shows different values. For example, the spot basis for Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 376. The current spot spreads such as the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is - 480, showing changes compared with the previous values [1]. d. Import and Crushing Profit - The current import and crushing profits for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, and near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil are - 451, - 203, 11, - 112, and 401 respectively, showing changes compared with the previous values [1]. e. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 10,870, 330, 1,727, 31,786, 31,278, and 1,500 respectively. The warehouse receipts for soybean oil have increased compared with the previous values, while others remain unchanged [1]. f. Industry Information - Indian vegetable oil imports in April were 891,558 tons, down from 1 million tons in March. Palm oil imports were 321,446 tons, down from 424,599 tons in March; sunflower oil imports were 180,128 tons, down from 190,645 tons in March; and soybean oil imports were 360,984 tons, up from 355,358 tons in March [2]. - HLIB maintains its average price forecasts for crude palm oil in 2025 and 2026 at 4000 Ringgit/ton and 3800 Ringgit/ton respectively, expecting the supply recovery led by Indonesia to limit the further rise of palm oil prices. The average price of crude palm oil so far this year is 4579 Ringgit/ton [2].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Canadian rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed higher, with the benchmark contract up 2.63%, hitting a record high, supported by the optimistic sentiment of the proposed revision of the US biofuel policy. The South American harvest is gradually being realized, putting continuous pressure on international soybean prices. However, the USDA's forecast of the US soybean ending stocks for the 2025/26 season at 295 million bushels, significantly lower than market expectations, is bullish for US soybeans. In the domestic market, as imported soybeans arrive at ports in a concentrated manner this month, the oil mill operation rate has gradually recovered, and the supply will shift from tight to loose, suppressing market prices. For rapeseed meal, the direct import pressure has significantly decreased, but the recent addition of Indian rapeseed meal imports and relatively high short - term inventory pressure are suppressing prices. For rapeseed oil, the supply - side pressure has weakened due to the decline in rapeseed imports in the first quarter, but high inventory pressure continues to restrict market prices. The rapeseed oil market shows short - term supply relaxation but high long - term uncertainty [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9438 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2509 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) is 729.7 Canadian dollars/ton, up 22 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) is 5368 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (9 - 1) is 177 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan; rapeseed meal (9 - 1) is 197 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil main contract position is 316130 lots, up 10690 lots; rapeseed meal main contract position is 630254 lots, down 7170 lots. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is 34791 lots, up 47 lots; rapeseed meal is - 39584 lots, up 10578 lots. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 1727 sheets; rapeseed meal is 31278 sheets [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9480 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2430 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Average price: Rapeseed oil is 9477.5 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. - Import cost price: Rapeseed (import) is 5271.16 yuan/ton, up 125.4 yuan. - Oil - meal ratio is 3.79, up 0.1. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis is 106 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan; rapeseed meal main contract basis is - 79 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. - Substitute spot prices: Fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8330 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong is 8800 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 85.17 million tons, down 1.01 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged. - Rapeseed import quantity: The total rapeseed import quantity for the current month is 24.68 million tons, down 8.63 million tons. - Import rapeseed crushing profit: - 107 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan. - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 25 million tons, down 5 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - Import quantities: Rapeseed oil and mustard oil import quantity for the current month is 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; rapeseed meal import quantity for the current month is 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons. - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 16.05 million tons, up 2 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 3.6 million tons, up 2.15 million tons; East China rapeseed oil inventory is 64.9 million tons, down 0.64 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory is 45.42 million tons, down 0.17 million tons; Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 8 million tons, up 1.2 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory is 25.7 million tons, up 2.7 million tons. - Weekly提货量: Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 is 0.72 million tons, down 3.11 million tons; rapeseed meal weekly提货量 is 5.01 million tons, down 0.34 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Feed production: The current - month feed production is 2777.2 million tons, down 66.4 million tons. - Edible vegetable oil production: The current - month edible vegetable oil production is 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons. - Social consumer goods retail: The current - month catering revenue is 4235 billion yuan, down 1314 billion yuan [2]. Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint Summary - The direct import pressure of rapeseed meal has significantly decreased, and the later supply is likely to be tight. However, the recent addition of Indian rapeseed meal imports and relatively high short - term inventory pressure are suppressing market prices. Driven by the strengthening of US soybeans, the rapeseed meal futures price rebounded slightly today, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint Summary - The new - year supply - demand pattern has improved, and the long - term price is under pressure. Driven by the US 45Z clean fuel tax credit policy and the continuous recovery of international crude oil, the domestic oil market is boosted. However, the palm oil producing areas are entering the seasonal production - increasing season, and palm oil is still under pressure. In the domestic market, the decline in rapeseed imports in the first quarter has weakened the supply - side pressure of rapeseed oil, and the increase in tariffs has significantly increased the import cost of Canadian rapeseed oil, restricting future imports. However, high inventory pressure continues to restrict market prices. The rapeseed oil market shows short - term supply relaxation but high long - term uncertainty. Driven by the strengthening of external oils, rapeseed oil closed higher in a volatile manner, generally maintaining a range - bound trend, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. Key Points to Monitor - The rapeseed operation rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions released by myagricultural.com on Monday, and the trends of China - Canada and Canada - US trade disputes [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply of live pigs is increasing and shifting backward, with prices under pressure but limited decline due to the discounted futures price. Egg prices are supported in the short - term but face long - term supply pressure. Oils have rebounded due to improved macro - environment and USDA report, but face supply pressure in the short - term and are expected to decline in the second quarter and rebound in the third quarter. Domestic soybean meal prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and strong in the long - term. Corn prices are supported in the short - term and have upward drivers in the long - term but with limited upside space [1][2][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - On May 14, spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were stable. Secondary fattening enthusiasm has weakened, and later supply will increase. Demand is limited, and the overall supply - demand game intensifies, with prices fluctuating. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase from May to September 2024, and there is a risk of price decline. The strategy is to wait for a rebound and short on the high side [1]. Eggs - On May 14, prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing were stable. Short - term prices are supported by the approaching Dragon Boat Festival, but supply pressure is increasing. In the long - term, supply is expected to increase, and the 06 contract may face pressure if the festival effect is weak. The strategy is to short lightly on the rebound for the 06 contract and be bearish on 08 and 09 contracts [2]. Oils - **Palm Oil**: MPOB April report is neutral - bearish, and May data shows high production and weak exports, with large inventory accumulation pressure in Malaysia. In China, inventory is decreasing but is expected to rise from May. The 07 contract faces pressure at 3900 - 4000 [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: The USDA May report is bullish, but the rise of US soybeans is limited. In China, soybean arrivals will increase from May to July, and inventory is expected to accumulate [5]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: ICE rapeseed rebounds due to improved macro - environment and tight domestic supply. In China, inventory is at a high level, but if supply tightens, inventory is expected to decrease [6]. - Overall, oils rebound in May, but short - term supply pressure limits the rebound height. In the medium - to - long - term, prices are expected to decline in the second quarter and rebound in the third quarter. The strategy is to short cautiously after a rebound for 09 contracts and consider spreading strategies for bean - palm and rapeseed - palm 09 contracts [7][8]. Soybean Meal - US soybeans are rebounding, but the upside is limited. In China, soybean arrivals will increase from May to July, and prices are expected to decline in the short - term. In the long - term, prices are expected to be strong due to increased costs and weather disturbances. The strategy is to short on the high side for the 09 contract in the short - term and go long on the low side in the long - term [8]. Corn - On May 13, prices in Jinzhou Port and Shandong Weifang were stable. Short - term supply is tight, supporting prices, but the upside may be limited. In the long - term, there are upward drivers, but the upside space is limited. The strategy is to be bullish in the long - term, go long at the lower end of the 07 contract range, and consider a 9 - 1 spread positive arbitrage [9]. Today's Futures Market Overview - CBOT soybeans, CBOT corn, ICE rapeseed, and egg futures prices changed on May 13. Other varieties such as soybean meal, corn, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil also had price fluctuations [10].