Group 1: Currency Exchange and Economic Predictions - The offshore RMB/USD exchange rate is expected to rise above 7.0 by the end of 2025, marking a 14-month high, influenced by the onset of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and global capital flow shifts [1] - Economist Huang Qifan predicts that the RMB will appreciate to around 6.0 against the USD over the next decade, supported by China's industrial value added accounting for 32% of the global economy [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy and Capital Flows - The Federal Reserve is projected to cut interest rates by a total of 200 basis points by the end of 2025, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00-4.25% [3] - The USD index is expected to decline from 105 to below 95, prompting investors to reassess global asset allocations [3] - By the second half of 2025, Chinese companies are anticipated to sell off $800 billion in USD assets, primarily investing in technology sectors such as semiconductors and renewable energy [3] Group 3: Impact on Import and Export Sectors - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to benefit import enterprises, with China's oil import costs projected to decrease by approximately 5% due to exchange rate factors, saving over $1 billion for petrochemical companies [4] - Conversely, the export sector faces challenges, with a projected 5% decline in exports to the US, leading to reduced orders for textile companies [6] Group 4: Cross-Border Capital Flows and Payment Systems - By 2025, northbound capital inflows are expected to exceed 150 billion RMB, doubling from 2024, with significant investments in high-dividend assets [6] - The CIPS cross-border payment system is projected to handle 12% of SWIFT's transaction volume, with RMB payments accounting for 30%, facilitating capital repatriation [6] Group 5: Global Currency Dynamics - The RMB's weight in the IMF's SDR basket is expected to rise to 12.28% by 2025, with countries like Iran and Saudi Arabia beginning to use RMB for oil trade settlements [6] - Criticism of the US for misusing dollar hegemony is growing, particularly as its budget deficit reaches 6% of GDP while continuing to lower interest rates [6] Group 6: Economic Structure and Trade Dynamics - China's export of new energy vehicles is projected to reach $120 billion by 2025, a sevenfold increase since 2019, while integrated circuit exports are expected to rise from $100 billion to $150 billion [10] - The US's attempts to reverse trade deficits through tariffs have resulted in an overall widening of its trade deficit [10]

人民币升值下的行业机会 ——策略专题研究 分析师：邓宇林、包承超 研究助理：龚嫣然 报告日期：2026年1月23日 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 02 摘要 ➢ 风险提示：1）全球地缘政治出现重大变化，导致全球市场风险偏好急剧变化。2）市场流动性超预期变化。3）历史数据不代表未来。 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 ➢ 1、人民币升值对于A股有何影响？——在人民币升值周期内，无论人民币是否为被动升值，全A指数普遍呈现上行趋势。行业上，人 民币升值对于多数行业股价均有正向影响，其中钢铁、房地产、轻工和交运等行业靠前。风格上，多数区间成长风格强于价值风格， 大盘和小盘之间无明显占优风格。 ➢ 2、如何寻找人民币升值下的行业机会？——基本面视角。直接来看，人民币升值会降低原材料成本和债务成本，间接来看，人民币升 值会提升人民币购买力。1）进口依赖度高且海外营收占比相对较低的行业，人民币升值或能降低原材料成本，如有色、钢铁、煤炭和 农林牧渔。2）美元借款体量大的行业，人民币升值或能降低债务成本，如电子、交运、建筑装饰和家电。3）对于可选消费行业，人 民币升值或能带动业绩增长。 ➢ 3、 ...

美联储1月维持利率不变的概率为95% 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储1月降息25个基点的概率5%，维持利率不变的概率为95%。到3月累计降 息25个基点的概率为15.4%，维持利率不变的概率为84.1%，累计降息50个基点的概率为0.6%。 来源：市场资讯 预测市场的交易者押注，贝莱德高管瑞克·里德尔（Rick Rieder）成为美联储下一任领导人的几率大幅 上升。周四上午，在Polymarket平台上，里德尔被特朗普选为下任美联储主席的几率为30%，仅次于前 美联储理事凯文·沃什的45%。十天前，里德尔在市场上的概率仅为3%。他的支持率上升，主要是以白 宫经济学家哈塞特为代价。哈塞特上月押注领先（其押注在12月2日达到峰值85%），但现在下降至 6%。 1月23日，人民币兑美元中间价报6.9929，上调90点。升值至2023年5月17日以来最高，升幅创2025年8 月25日以来最大。离岸人民币短线快速拉升。 市场押注贝莱德高管里德尔为美联储主席热门人选 ...

此外，李世杰补充表示，人民币升值预期持续强化也是重要催化因素。2025年12月人民币汇率逼近7.0 关口，进入2026年后在岸人民币已升至6.96附近，全年累计涨幅明显。在此背景下，国际业务占比较高 的企业出于降低外币敞口风险、锁定汇兑收益的考虑，主动推动结汇操作。同时，美元走弱预期升温、 美联储降息周期预期延续，也在外部环境层面放大了这一行为。 兴业研究高级研究员张梦也指出，年末净结汇走高具有明显的季节性特征。每年年末本身是传统的结汇 高峰期，而2025年11月下旬至12月美元兑人民币连续突破7.10、7.05、7.00等关键点位，强化了市场的 升值预期，并触及部分企业的成本汇率或盈亏平衡汇率，从而显著放大了客盘结汇量。 日前，广发证券发布研报显示，2025年12月净结汇创历史新高。12月银行代客净结汇7055亿元，环比、 同比分别上升5891亿元、7806亿元。 分析人士指出，人民币在2025年12月后呈现加快升值态势，是推动企业和个人加快结汇的重要直接因 素。在人民币持续升值背景下，若延迟结汇，外汇资产折算为人民币时将面临更明显的价值缩水，因此 相关主体倾向于提前将外汇兑换为人民币。 汇管信息科技研究院 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the value of the Chinese yuan, reaching a two-year high against the US dollar, reflects a shift in market dynamics and investor sentiment towards Chinese assets, driven by strong export performance and economic stimulus measures [2][4][6]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The offshore yuan exchange rate against the US dollar broke through 6.97, reaching a peak of 6.9664, marking a significant appreciation [2]. - Over the past year, the yuan was perceived as undervalued despite record exports and increasing trade surpluses, with the currency remaining around the 7 yuan mark [4]. - The recent appreciation is attributed to a combination of strong exports and a shift in investor focus towards China as global economic prospects dim [6][8]. Group 2: Economic Factors - China's export strength remains robust, particularly in sectors like new energy, contributing to a growing trade surplus and providing support for yuan appreciation [8]. - The global investment landscape is shifting, with diminishing opportunities in the US and Europe, prompting capital to flow back into China, enhancing the attractiveness of the yuan [6][8]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Considerations - There is speculation about the potential for the People's Bank of China to adopt a new monetary policy framework that could link currency issuance to electricity generation, although this idea presents significant practical challenges [10][12]. - The concept of using electricity as a monetary anchor raises concerns about its feasibility and the potential impact on different sectors of the economy [10][12]. - The central bank is expected to prioritize stability in the exchange rate and economic expectations, avoiding rapid fluctuations in the yuan's value [18][20]. Group 4: Investment Implications - The appreciation of the yuan is likely to make foreign goods cheaper for Chinese consumers and increase the attractiveness of Chinese assets to foreign investors, potentially leading to a rise in asset prices [14][20]. - Investors are advised to diversify their portfolios and consider various asset classes, including stocks and emerging industry funds, to mitigate risks associated with currency fluctuations [20].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - Recent appreciation of the RMB is expected to continue, enhancing domestic asset attractiveness and improving the competitiveness of export products [1] - Historical analysis shows that during previous RMB appreciation periods, the food and beverage sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 18% and 12% respectively, indicating strong performance potential in the current cycle [2] - The current RMB appreciation is anticipated to create a triple resonance effect in the sector, leading to cost reduction, increased demand, and valuation recovery [2] Summary by Sections Cost Side - RMB appreciation reduces the import cost of raw materials, leading to lower manufacturing costs and improved profitability. Key raw materials affected include soybeans, palm oil, oats, barley, and tree nuts [2] Demand Side - Domestic demand recovery is a fundamental support for the strengthening RMB. The appreciation will lower inventory replenishment costs for companies, shifting the industry from passive destocking to active replenishment, thus reinforcing domestic demand resilience [2] Capital Side - The liquidity remains ample during the RMB appreciation cycle, increasing foreign capital inflow into A-shares. The food and beverage sector, with a high proportion of foreign holdings, is expected to benefit from valuation recovery driven by increased foreign allocation [2] Investment Recommendations - Focus on three main lines of investment: 1. Cost benefits: Recommended companies include Ximai Food, Lihigh Food, Miaokelando, Qiaqia Food, and H&H [3] 2. Demand recovery: Recommended companies include Anjijia Food, Qianwei Central Kitchen, Youran Livestock, Modern Dairy, New Dairy, and Wancheng Group [3] 3. Valuation recovery: Recommended companies include Yili, Mengniu Dairy, Xianle Health, Weilong Delicious, and Yanjinpuzi [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Key companies and their respective ratings, earnings per share (EPS) forecasts, and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the years 2024 to 2027 are provided, indicating a positive outlook for several companies in the sector [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company Shanghai Laishi indicated that its imported human albumin products are primarily settled in US dollars, and a rise in the value of the RMB could increase the company's net profit, assuming other variables remain constant [2]. Group 1 - The company primarily uses US dollars for settling its imported human albumin products [2]. - A stronger RMB could lead to an increase in net profit for the company [2].

Core Viewpoint - The impact of exchange rates on exports is gradually diminishing due to the optimization of export product structure and the absolute comparative advantage of certain high-end products [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - By the end of 2025, the RMB is expected to appreciate against the USD, potentially reaching 6.7 to 6.8 by the end of 2026, driven by market forces and policy adjustments [1]. - Since the "8.11 exchange rate reform" in 2015, the correlation between RMB exchange rate movements and export trends has weakened significantly, with a correlation coefficient of only 0.3% from September 2015 to November 2025 [2]. - During the two appreciation cycles since the reform, exports maintained stable growth despite RMB appreciation, indicating that exchange rate changes do not negatively impact export growth [2][3]. Group 2: Export Competitiveness - The actual effective exchange rate of the RMB remains low compared to major economies, providing a price advantage for Chinese exports despite the appreciation of the RMB [5]. - The central bank's refined management of the exchange rate has reduced the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on exports, allowing exporters to adjust pricing and lock in rates [6]. - The competitiveness of Chinese exports has been enhanced due to the continuous upgrading of industrial structure, with technology-intensive products gaining a stronger market position [9][10]. Group 3: Trade Settlement and Currency Internationalization - The proportion of RMB in international trade settlements is increasing, with RMB cross-border payments for goods trade reaching approximately 12.4 trillion yuan in 2024, a 15.9% increase year-on-year [11]. - Significant breakthroughs have been made in RMB settlement for major exports, such as large ships and aircraft, indicating a shift away from the dominance of the USD in trade transactions [12].

Group 1 - The global landscape is changing significantly as of 2026, with increased risk aversion in markets due to political maneuvers by former US President Trump, leading to gold prices surpassing $4,800 per ounce and approaching the $5,000 target [1] - The evolution of international circumstances has lowered investor risk appetite, enhancing the attractiveness of bond assets, which provide stable interest income, especially as the bond market in China continues to expand and attract global investors [1] - Following the implementation of growth-stabilizing policies on September 24, 2024, the stock market has begun to show signs of recovery, establishing a preliminary slow bull market, which has shifted investor focus from bonds to stocks, resulting in a significant decline in the bond market [1] Group 2 - By 2026, a more balanced development opportunity is anticipated for stocks and bonds, with a significant amount of two-year and four-year fixed deposits maturing, totaling approximately 50 trillion RMB, which may lead to a reallocation of funds towards equities or bonds based on investor risk preferences [2] - Current household savings in China have reached 165 trillion RMB, with the real estate market in adjustment, prompting a need for new investment channels, primarily in the stock and bond markets [2] - Investors are advised to allocate assets based on their risk tolerance, with a portion in equities to benefit from the slow bull market and another in fixed-income products for stable returns, alongside a suggested 20% allocation to precious metals for risk mitigation [3] Group 3 - The debate over whether to hold stocks or cash during the upcoming Spring Festival is ongoing, with expectations of a spring market rally despite recent market fluctuations, as January typically sees a peak in credit issuance, estimated at 3 to 4 trillion RMB, which could provide significant liquidity to the capital markets [3] - The structure of holdings is crucial; holding quality stocks or funds aligns with the upward trend of the slow bull market, while overvalued stocks lacking performance support may warrant profit-taking [4] - The RMB is expected to continue appreciating against the USD, having recently surpassed the 7 mark and stabilizing around 6.96, influenced by the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and China's asset stabilization policies [4] Group 4 - The global monetary system is undergoing transformation, with the USD's position declining due to increased US government debt exceeding $38 trillion and actions undermining the credibility of the Federal Reserve, which may lead to further appreciation of the RMB [5] - The current technological landscape is characterized by the fourth industrial revolution centered around AI, with significant potential for the emergence of trillion-dollar companies in this sector, particularly in China, which has a vast consumer market [6] - AI applications are expected to be a major focus in 2026, with promising areas including humanoid robots and various "AI+" applications in sectors like healthcare, education, and finance, presenting numerous investment opportunities [6]

Market Overview - The report indicates that the A-share market is likely to continue its oscillating adjustment in the short term, with major indices experiencing collective declines [2][3][11] - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with a significant drop in trading volume, as the total transaction amount in the two markets has shrunk to approximately 2.7 trillion [3][12] - The report highlights that the market is currently in a phase of performance expectations versus fundamental verification, particularly as the end of January approaches, which will see a peak in annual report forecasts [3][12] Sector Analysis Precious Metals - The precious metals sector has shown continued strength, driven by rising gold and silver futures, with five key factors contributing to this trend: the onset of a Fed rate cut cycle, increased geopolitical tensions, strong demand for gold from global central banks, a weakening dollar, and rising inflation concerns [9] - The report advises caution against chasing prices in the precious metals market after significant increases, suggesting short-term trading opportunities with stop-loss measures [9] Real Estate - The real estate sector has become active due to a series of supportive policies from central and local governments aimed at stabilizing the market, including relaxed lending and purchasing restrictions [10] - The report anticipates that ongoing policy support and improving supply-demand dynamics will boost the sector, with a focus on high-quality companies with land reserve advantages and those returning to stable growth [10] Future Market Outlook - The report maintains a positive medium-term outlook for the market, citing a global interest rate cut cycle entering its second half and a favorable macro liquidity environment [3][12] - It suggests that investors should remain cautious in the short term, waiting for signs of market stabilization before adjusting strategies, while also identifying long-term investment opportunities in sectors with strong policy support and performance certainty [3][12]