Domestic News - The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, UK [3] - China's Ministry of Commerce representative Li Chenggang stated that a framework was reached regarding the implementation of the consensus from the two countries' leaders' phone call and the Geneva talks [3] - A total of 16 car manufacturers, including BYD, SAIC, and GAC, have committed to standardizing supplier payment terms to within 60 days [3] - From January to May, China's automobile sales reached 12.748 million units, with new energy vehicles accounting for 44% [3] - The domestically developed large amphibious aircraft AG600 "Kunlong" received a production license from the Civil Aviation Administration of China in Zhuhai, Guangdong [3] International News - The US Court of Appeals ruled that Trump's tariffs will remain in effect during the appeal process, while the EU hopes to extend trade negotiations beyond the July deadline set by Trump [2] - Trump expressed diminished confidence in reaching an Iran nuclear agreement, with Iran's defense minister stating that if negotiations fail and conflict arises with the US, Iran will target US military bases in the region [2] - The US May CPI data was below expectations, with core CPI rising only 0.1%, prompting Trump to call for a 100 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve [3]

美、布两油持续上涨 金十数据6月11日讯，WTI原油日内涨2%，现报65.18美元/桶；布伦特原油日内涨1.88%，现报67.4美元/桶。消息面上，特朗普 对达成伊核协议信心减弱。 ...

美伊4月12日在阿曼首都马斯喀特举行了首轮间接会谈，这是自2018年5月美国单方面退出伊核协议后双 方首次正式谈判。此后，双方又举行了四轮间接谈判。（央视） 当地时间10日，央视记者获悉，有美国及以色列官员透露，美国总统特朗普告诉以色列总理内塔尼亚 胡，他反对对伊朗实施军事行动，因为其认为当前存在与伊朗达成核协议的可能。伊朗外交部10日凌晨 发表声明说，伊朗将于15日与美国举行下一轮会谈。 ...

Energy - Iraq's SOMO announced that the official selling price of Basrah medium crude oil for July shipments to Asia will be $0.30 per barrel above the average price of Oman/Dubai crude [1] - A survey indicated that five OPEC+ member countries increased oil production by 180,000 barrels per day in May, which is below the committed increase of 310,000 barrels per day [1] - Due to refinery shutdowns, fuel imports in California reached their highest level in four years [1] - The Israeli military stated that its naval vessels attacked Houthi targets in Yemen's Hodeidah port [1] Precious Metals and Mining - Chile's central bank reported that copper export revenue fell to $4.48 billion in May [2] Agriculture - On June 10, the first meeting of the China-U.S. trade negotiation mechanism will continue [3] - Japanese trade negotiators will visit the U.S. and Canada from June 13 to 18 for negotiations [3] - The U.S. Department of Justice requested the court to extend the stay on the enforcement of the ruling invalidating Trump's tariffs [3] Other - An Iranian parliamentary spokesperson indicated that if the International Atomic Energy Agency pressures Iran and triggers mechanisms, Iran plans to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty [4] - Iran's foreign ministry stated that the U.S. proposal regarding the nuclear agreement is "unacceptable" [4] Additional Information - South Korean egg prices have reached a four-year high [5] - The Japanese government will release an additional 200,000 tons of reserve rice [5] - Malaysia's MPOB reported that palm oil production in May was 1,771,621 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.05% [5] - Local growers and officials indicated that India is expected to have a surplus of sugar for two consecutive years [5]

Domestic News - The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism will continue [1] - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and by 0.1% year-on-year; the PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and by 3.3% year-on-year [1] - The Central Committee and the State Council support guiding local governments to directly distribute maternity insurance benefits to insured individuals and to reasonably increase the minimum wage standard [1] - Premier Li Qiang presided over the 14th special study session of the State Council, emphasizing the need to strengthen the role of enterprises in innovation and support qualified enterprises to lead or participate in national science and technology innovation projects [1] - The General Administration of Customs reported that in the first five months of this year, the total import and export of goods increased by 2.5% year-on-year; trade with the US decreased by 8.1% during the same period [1] International News - The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that the US proposal regarding the nuclear agreement is "unacceptable," with the next round of nuclear negotiations expected to take place in Oman on Sunday [2] - Protests in Los Angeles have led California to sue the Trump administration over troop deployment, with Trump expressing a desire to avoid civil war in the US [2] Other News - Japan is considering repurchasing some ultra-long-term government bonds [3] - Japan's chief negotiator Akizawa Ryozo plans to visit the US this week [3] - Trump announced a newborn savings plan, proposing to save $1,000 for each child born [3] - The US Senate plans to introduce significant adjustments to Trump's tax reform proposal this week [3] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that measures to avoid reaching the debt ceiling will be exhausted between mid-August and the end of September [3] - The Canadian Prime Minister stated that Canada should no longer allocate 75% of its defense budget to the US and will diversify its defense partnerships [3]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran's nuclear program and its relations with the U.S. and Israel, are critical to monitor as they may impact regional stability and global markets [1]. Group 1: Iran's Nuclear Negotiations - The sixth round of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran is scheduled to take place in Oslo, Norway, or Muscat, Oman, this week [1]. - Iran's Foreign Ministry has stated that it will take retaliatory measures if the IAEA passes a resolution against Iran [1]. - Iran's proposal regarding the nuclear agreement will be communicated to the U.S. through Oman, as the Iranian government deems the U.S. plan "unacceptable" [1]. Group 2: International Relations and Developments - The spokesperson for Iran's Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee indicated that Russia will construct eight nuclear power plants in Iran [1]. - There is a possibility that Iran may withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty if the IAEA pressures Iran and triggers the mechanism [1]. - Israeli Prime Minister and former President Trump discussed the Iranian nuclear issue and other topics in a 40-minute phone call [1].

Domestic News - The first meeting of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism is being held in London, attended by He Lifeng, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council [1] - The State Council, led by Li Qiang, emphasizes the need to strengthen the role of enterprises in innovation and support qualified companies to lead or participate in national science and technology innovation projects [1] - The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued opinions aimed at further ensuring and improving people's livelihoods, focusing on addressing urgent and difficult issues faced by the public [1] - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the activities of Chinese naval vessels in relevant waters fully comply with international law and conventions [1] - The General Administration of Customs reported a 2.5% year-on-year increase in goods trade imports and exports in the first five months of this year, with trade with the U.S. decreasing by 8.1% [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics announced that in May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and by 0.1% year-on-year, while the PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and by 3.3% year-on-year [1] International News - Japan's chief negotiator Akira Amari plans to visit the U.S. this week regarding tariffs [2] - The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that the U.S. proposal concerning the Iran nuclear agreement is "unacceptable" [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no clear industry investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market remains in a state of indecision, awaiting a driving force, while the energy and chemical sector continues to show a weak pattern Most energy and chemical varieties are in a downward structure, and a bearish mindset should be maintained [1][3][4] - The long - term oversupply situation of crude oil remains unchanged The short - term driving force focuses on the new Iran nuclear deal or potential macro - driving factors The macro - economy, which has been directionless since May, may weaken again, and attention should be paid to the non - farm payrolls data on Friday night [3] Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Logic: In June, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, not exceeding expectations Kazakhstan has low compliance with production cuts, and Saudi Arabia may further accelerate production increases in August - September The EIA data is not the focus currently The new Iran nuclear deal is likely to be reached [5] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures of crude oil are in a downward trend The short - term pressure is around 468 - 470 The strategy is to hold short positions in the 07 contract with a passive stop - profit at 470 [5] Benzene Ethylene (EB) - Logic: The port inventory of pure benzene, the raw material, has reached a five - year high, and the supply of benzene ethylene is strong while demand is weak, facing downward pressure from raw materials [9] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 7270 The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 7270 [12] Rubber - Logic: The domestic rubber inventory is accumulating counter - seasonally, the supply is increasing, and the demand for tires is under pressure [13] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures are in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 14000 The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound fails [13] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The supply of butadiene, the raw material, is facing pressure to increase, and the demand is suppressed by tire inventory [16] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures are in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 11470 The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 11470 [16][19] PX - Logic: The supply and demand of PX have weakened in the short term, and the cost of crude oil is under downward pressure [20] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 6630 The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound ends [20] PTA - Logic: The short - term supply and demand of PTA are still strong, but the cost of crude oil is under downward pressure [23] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 4680 The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound ends [23] PP - Logic: The demand is weak in the off - season, and the supply is affected by new capacity and maintenance The price may follow the crude oil price in the short term [27] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 6980 The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 6980 [27] Methanol - Logic: The domestic and overseas device operation rates are high, and the inventory is expected to accumulate under high import pressure [30] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in an upward trend The support is at 2230 The strategy is to wait for short - selling opportunities after the support is broken [30] PVC - Logic: The supply will increase as the maintenance devices resume operation, and the demand is insufficient in the off - season [34] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures are in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 4980 The strategy is to try short - selling with a stop - loss at 4850 [34] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The supply is expected to increase, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious [36] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures are in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 4370 The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 4370 [37][38] Plastic - Logic: The supply is affected by new maintenance, the demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is increasing [39] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures are in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 7120 The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 7120 [39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil rebounded again to test the pressure, and the energy and chemical sector generally rebounded, but it is still regarded as a rebound rather than a reversal before breaking through the pressure [1]. - The new Iran nuclear deal is likely to be reached, and OPEC+ production increase remains a long - term constraint on oil prices [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: In terms of supply and demand, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, not exceeding expectations. Kazakhstan refused to cut production, and the production cut implementation rate was low. Canada's oil sands production was affected by wildfires. Geopolitically, the Russia - Ukraine situation had limited impact on oil. The US made concessions on the Iran nuclear deal, and it is likely to be reached [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. It rebounded to test the short - term pressure at 468 today but did not effectively break through. The 07 - contract short position is held, and the passive stop - profit reference is 470 [2]. (2) Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The port inventory of pure benzene reached a 5 - year high, and the supply was abundant. Benzene ethylene port inventory increased, supply was high, and demand did not improve, so it is bearish in the medium term [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. It was regarded as a position - reducing rebound today, not a trend reversal. The short - term pressure is at 7270. Short positions are continued to be held [7]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: Domestic rubber inventory increased seasonally. Supply in Southeast Asia was expected to increase, and tire inventory was high, so it is bearish [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. It was a position - reducing rebound today. Look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound fails to break through the pressure at 14000 [8]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are average. The supply of butadiene is expected to increase, and tire inventory pressure restricts demand [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. It was a position - reducing rebound today. The short - term pressure is at 11470 [11]. (5) PX - **Logic**: PX device maintenance recovery was slow, downstream PTA start - up declined, and the cost of crude oil had downward pressure [15]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today with a small rebound at the end. Look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound ends. The short - term pressure is at 6735 [15]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: The expected "export rush" did not occur, but short - term supply - demand was still strong due to device maintenance. The cost of crude oil had downward pressure [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today with a small rebound at the end. Look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound ends. The short - term pressure is at 4800 [17]. (7) PP - **Logic**: It entered the off - season, demand was weak, and new production capacity was expected. It may follow the crude oil price in the short term [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. It was a position - reducing rebound today. The short - term pressure is at 6980. Short positions are held [22]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: Domestic device start - up was high, downstream olefin demand was weak, and overseas imports were expected to increase, so the disk was under pressure [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level has a downward structure. It oscillated today without a bottoming signal. The short - term pressure is at 2255. Short positions are held with a stop - profit at 2255 [24]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: Device maintenance was expected to end, and demand was weak due to the real - estate downturn and the off - season [28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today without a bottoming signal. Look for short - selling opportunities at the reversal pattern near the short - term pressure of 4980 [28]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Supply is expected to increase after device recovery, and short - term polyester demand is okay, with not obvious supply - demand contradictions [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level short - term downward structure may end. Short positions are stopped at profit [29][31]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: Supply decreased due to new maintenance, demand was weak after the off - season of agricultural films, and inventory pressure increased [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. It oscillated with a position - reducing rebound today. The short - term pressure is at 7120. Short positions are held with a stop - profit at 7120 [32].

金十数据整理：中东局势跟踪（6月4日） 加沙冲突： 7. 以色列军方发言人周三警告加沙居民不要进入通往美国支持的救援组织配送中心的地区，称这些地区 是"战区"。 跟踪中东局势动态 +订阅 1. 以色列军方表示，在加沙北部的战斗中，三名士兵遇难。 2. 加沙卫生部表示，已有24名巴勒斯坦人于周二清晨在拉法等待援助分发时遇难。 3. 以色列军方表示，部队并未阻止加沙居民前往救援物资分发点。 4. 以军在加沙援助物资分发点开枪造成至少27人死亡。 5. 以色列多地拉响防空警报，本-古里安国际机场关闭。 6. 以色列军方表示，两次导弹从叙利亚方向发射，向以色列方向飞来，落在空旷地区。 1. 最近几周内500名美军撤离叙利亚，多个美军基地被移交。 2. 卡塔尔宣布向叙利亚提供电力和财政支持。 3. 联合国安理会将就加沙人道主义决议草案进行表决。 4. 伊朗外交部长：在伊朗境内进行铀浓缩是我们的红线。 5. 美媒：特朗普提议伊核协议新框架，伊朗将数日后回应。 其他情况： ...